The Bum's National Football League Week # 8 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

Texans cut QB Mallett

Quarterback Ryan Mallett was released by the Houston Texans three days after missing the team's charter flight to Miami.

Multiple reports linked the Texans and former backup T.J. Yates, who was traded to the Atlanta Falcons. Yates would return as a backup along with second-year option Tom Savage.

Punctuality and professionalism were hindrances for Mallett in his competition with Brian Hoyer, and proved fatal detriments at a position typically defined by leadership and decision making.

Trading Mallett was an unlikely scenario given his recent track record off the field and having completed 53.1 percent of his throws this year for 770 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions for a 63.6 passer rating.

"We're dealing with Ryan Mallett internally, Rick Smith and I," Texans head coach Bill O'Brien said of his discussions with the Texans' general manager on Monday. "We're talking about it. We're talking about our options."

Mallett acknowledged being late following a 44-26 defeat to the Dolphins. Mallett missed a practice during training camp, saying he overslept and had vowed to Smith it would never happen again. Team officials addressed Mallett's behavior with him behind the scenes when he sulked on the sideline after being replaced by Hoyer during a loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

"I just got caught in traffic," Mallett said. "Got to be on time. It's not the leadership role that I need to exhibit. So, I have to be better."

When asked why he's repeatedly late to team activities, Mallett replied: "It only happened twice."

Texans owner Bob McNair paid a visit to the locker room Monday, one day after a disheartening loss where his team was thoroughly dominated.

Texans head coach Bill O'Brien declined to elaborate on his conversations with McNair, who praised his leadership during a kickoff luncheon prior to the season following last year's 9-7 campaign during his first season as a head coach.

"I'm not going to really get into the discussions that I have with Mr. McNair," O'Brien said of the majority owner who spoke Monday with veteran nose tackle Vince Wilfork. "Nobody is happy with where we're at. He's the owner. He's the boss.

"He's not happy and that's the way it is. That's life in the NFL, but I'm not going to get into the details of what he and I talk about."

[StarDust Bum]

McFadden to start for Cowboys

IRVING, Texas – Dallas Cowboys running back Darren McFadden earned the starting job with his performance against the New York Giants on Sunday.

Owner Jerry Jones said Tuesday that McFadden earned the job after coach Jason Garrett said Monday more opportunities were due the veteran, who proved to be the team's biggest bright spot with 29 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown, all season highs.

Joseph Randle is iffy for Week 8 with a back strain that sidelined him in the first quarter of Sunday's 27-20 loss to the New Giants. If he plays, it will be as McFadden's backup.

It was the first 100-yard performance of the season for a Cowboys running back, the first for McFadden since 2013 when he was still with the Oakland Raiders and the fourth-highest total of his career.

"We will get back to work and we will give him his opportunities and keep the whole thing competitive for everybody," Garrett said. "But he has certainly earned some more touches. Absolutely."

Some of McFadden's success can be attributed to dominant play up front by the offensive line. Randle had runs of 13 and 11 yards on his first two carries before leaving with an injury.

But this was also about McFadden running strong throughout the game and seemingly getting better as the game went on because of his role as the lead back rather than sharing touches.

He entered the game with 129 yards on 37 carries with a high of 10 carries twice this season. The 29 carries on Sunday were the second most of his career and the most by a Cowboys running back since DeMarco Murray rushed 29 times in Week 2 of last season.

"Different guys respond to different things," Garrett said. "You have to get to know the back. He responded to that situation well yesterday. I certainly do think we had some of our best run opportunities in the game yesterday. I thought it was blocked real well up front. We did a good job as a staff giving guys good opportunities up front.

"But he really ran well. He run tough inside, short-yard on third-and-2 where he pushed the pile, was a big play. He made a lot of space runs, made people miss, finished runs. He made a lot of dirty 3- and 4-yard runs. I thought he really played well."

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 8
October 27, 2015

THURSDAY, OCT. 29
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Dan Campbell 2-0 SU and vs. line as Dolphins HC, and Miami has actually won 2 of last 3 SU vs. Patriots. Though Belichick 6-0 SU, 5-1 last five vs. spread at Foxborough vs. Miami. Pats "over" 58-28 last 86 reg.-season games and "under" 6-4 last ten vs. Dolphins.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Patriots, based on "totals" and series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOV. 1

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY from London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Chiefs finally broke slump with first win and cover last six a week ago vs. Steel. Detroit only one cover this season. Lions "under" a surprising 10-2 last 12 reg.- season games away from Ford Field. Chiefs were "under" 6-2 away LY but went "over" first three on road in 2015 prior to "under" at Vikes.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under" and Chiefs, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bridgewater still just 2-6 SU as starter on road and Vikes only 3-8 SU away since last season, but have covered five straight TY. Vikes "under" 13-8-1 for Zimmer since LY. Bears unbeaten last three vs. number TY and covered both meetings LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs cooled a bit after 4-0 spread break from gate, no covers last three. Atlanta still just 4-7 as home chalk since 2013 (1-1 TY). Falcs destroyed Bucs LY winning both games by DD margins. Lovie has fared better on road(7-4 vs. line) than at home (3-8 vs. spread) since taking over Bucs LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on recent series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY GIANTS at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men "over" 11-5 last 16, Saints "over" 14-8-1 last 23 reg.-season games. Saints have win and covered last two at home after dropping six in a row SU and vs. points at Superdome.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners have won and covered last two at Rams but are just 3-10 last 13 vs. line overall after last Thursday's loss to Seahawks.
Tech Edge: Slight to Rams, based on recent Niner woes.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards "over" 5-2 TY after Monday vs. Ravens, Browns "over" 6-1 in 2015. Big Red 11-4 vs. spread last 15 reg.-season road games, but Browns 11-4-1 last 16 as dog for Pettine.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel has won and covered last three meetings. Though Cincy has covered all three on road TY and is 5-0-1 overall vs. line in 2015. Steel 12-6 vs. line last 18 reg.-season games at home. "Unders" 5-1 last 6 between pair at Heinz Field though Steel "over" 7-2 last nine at home with Big Ben at QB. Bengals "over" 5-1 this season.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bolts just 4-14 last 18 on board, but Flacco just 1-5 vs. line TY prior to Monday at Arizona. Ravens "over" 6-2 last 8 and "overs" 4-1 last five in series. If Bolts a dog note they are 1-2 in role TY but were 14-6-1 in role previous three seasons.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Chargers, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans have covered 7 of last 8 meetings. First Titans road game since Week Two at Cleveland! They're 3-9-1 vs. line last 13 away. Titans also "over" 5-1 TY and Texans "over" 4-1-1 TY. Series also "over" 6-2 last 8.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Texans, based on "totals" and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY JETS at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Heidi Game replay! Jets 5-1 vs. line for Bowles and now on 8-1 spread run since late 2014. Raiders "over" 7-3 last ten at Coliseum.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Hawks finally got road win and cover at Niners after losing first three away TY (0-2-1 vs. line). Carroll still 35-21-4 vs. line in reg season since late 2011. Dallas 1-6 vs. line last 7 at Arlington since mid 2014.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Broncos 24-2 SU in reg season at home since Peyton Manning arrived in 2012. Also "over" 18-8 in those games. Pack 14-12 SU away since 2012 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


MONDAY, NOV. 2
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at CAROLINA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Colts 10-5 last 15 as reg.- season dog. Also "over" 11-5 last 16 reg season road games. Panthers 9-3-1 last 13 as home chalk. Also "under" 9-3 last 12 at Charlotte.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Dolphins, Pats hook up

October 27, 2015


MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -8, Total: 51.5

Since a humiliating 27-14 loss to the Jets in London on Oct. 4 that cost head coach Joe Philbin his job, Miami (3-3 ATS) has played inspired football under interim head coach Dan Campbell with a pair of blowout wins at Tennessee (38-10) and versus Houston (44-26) last week. New England (3-1-2 ATS) has won all six of its games by at least seven points, including a 30-23 victory over the division rival Jets last week.

The home team has prevailed in five straight meetings in this series (SU and ATS) and the Dolphins have suffered six straight losses (2-4 ATS) in Foxboro, including a 41-13 shellacking from the Patriots last season. Most of the betting trends expect another New England win and cover, such as its 11-2 ATS record since the start of last season when coming off a game where 50+ points were scored and Bill Belichick's 32-16 ATS mark versus teams averaging 6+ yards per play as the team's head coach. But Miami is 39-23 ATS on the road after a 2-1 ATS stretch since 1992, and is 8-2 ATS versus excellent passing teams (260+ YPG) over the past three seasons.

With the short week, both teams have some injury concerns with two Dolphins defenders questionable in DT A.J. Francis (back) and CB Bobby McCain (knee) and four key Patriots donning the similar questionable tag in top RB Dion Lewis (abdominal), LB Jabaal Sheard (ankle),OT Marcus Cannon (toe) and OL Shaquille Mason (knee).

The one clear edge Miami has in this game is its rushing attack, as the club averages 118 YPG on 5.3 YPC, compared to New England's 84 YPG on 3.9 YPC. In the past two weeks, the Dolphins have run for 428 yards on 67 carries (6.4 YPC). Fourth-year RB Lamar Miller (419 rush yds, 6.0 YPC, 2 TD) is coming off a monster afternoon against Houston where he rushed for 175 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries (12.5 YPC) while adding 61 receiving yards and another score. Miller did not play well in Foxboro last year with 47 yards on 16 carries (2.9 YPC), but he did pile up 78 yards and a touchdown when Miami defeated the Patriots at home in 2014.

QB Ryan Tannehill is also coming off a huge performance against Houston when he completed 18-of-19 throws for 282 yards (14.8 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT. That gives him 271 passing YPG, 13 TD and 7 INT for the season. The fourth-year pro is 2-4 in his career in this series, where he has completed only 57% of his throws for 242 YPG, 8 TD and 6 INT.

The Miami defense has actually played better on the road (17.5 PPG allowed) than at home (22.8 PPG allowed), but it is still allowing too many first downs (21.5 per game) leading to a 32:13 average time of possession. While the passing defense is surrendering 240 YPG on 6.8 YPA, the run-stop unit hasn't been much better with opponents rushing for 129 YPG on 4.1 YPC. But after forcing only one turnover during a three-game losing skid, the Dolphins have five takeaways during their two-game win surge. However, they are facing a franchise that rarely makes mistakes with just three giveaways all season, including one in the past four games combined.

New England has scored at least 28 points in all six games this season, averaging 35.5 PPG on 411 total YPG. But most of this production has been due to the stellar play of QB Tom Brady through the air, as the ground game has only 3.9 YPC (3.4 YPC at home) and is coming off a 9-carry, 16-yard showing against the Jets. Brady has been nearly perfect in 2015, completing 69% of his throws for 342 YPG (8.2 YPA), 16 TD and just 1 INT. He's also had his share of success against the Dolphins with a 16-6 record, 236 passing YPG, 41 TD and 18 INT. During his team's five-game home win streak versus Miami, Brady has thrown for 238 YPG, eight touchdowns and only two picks.

In 2015, he has thrown TD passes to seven different receivers with TE Rob Gronkowski (533 rec yds, 6 TD) and WR Julian Edelman (503 rec yds, 4 TD) already more than halfway to 1,000 yards in just six games. In the blowout win versus Miami last season, the duo combined for 10 catches and 184 yards and each scored a touchdown.

The Patriots defense has given up a bunch of yards (359 total YPG), but has allowed only 21.0 PPG. The run-stop unit needs to improve its 4.5 YPC allowed, and the secondary has to trim its 248 YPG on 63% completions and 6.5 YPA. New England has done a decent job in forcing mistakes with eight takeaways so far this season, and has a powerful enough pass rush (21 sacks) to be able to pressure Tannehill, who has been sacked 16 times this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Miami at New England
When: 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, October 29, 2015
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts


A change in head coaches has been akin to a magic wand for the revitalized Miami Dolphins, who have rolled up 82 points in romping to a pair of lopsided victories since Dan Campbell replaced the fired Joe Philbin. The Dolphins may need some magic when they head north to visit Tom Brady and the undefeated New England Patriots in an AFC East matchup on Thursday night.

Miami had lost three in a row and failed to score more than 20 points in each of its first four games before Philbin was let go, but it has responded to the change with a 38-10 romp at Tennessee before a 44-26 mauling of Houston on Sunday. “You look at our work out there and it really was a team effort,” Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill said after leading his team to a 41-0 halftime lead over the Texans on Sunday. New England rallied from a 20-16 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the visiting New York Jets 30-23 in a showdown for division supremacy. The Patriots, who are averaging a league-best 35.5 points, have won eight of the last 10 meetings versus Miami.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Patriots -8. O/U: 51

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-3):

Tannehill compiled a perfect passer rating of 158.3 while going 18-of-19 for 282 yards with four touchdowns while establishing an NFL record with 25 consecutive completions over a two-game span. The biggest beneficiary of the coaching change has been running back Lamar Miller, who averaged 32.8 yards rushing in his first four games before putting up 113 yards against Tennessee and 175 versus Houston while scoring in both games. The Dolphins have also come alive on the other side of the ball by recording nine of their sacks over the past two games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-0):

Facing a Jets defense that ranked among the league leaders in nearly every category, New England eschewed the run and put the ball in the hands of Brady, who threw for 355 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns. Brady, who became the fifth QB in league history to surpass 55,000 yards, has 16 TD passes versus one interception and his favorite targets are Julian Edelman (45 receptions, four TDs) and behemoth tight end Rob Gronkowski, who already has six receiving scores. The Patriots are allowing 21 points per game but rank fourth in the league with 21 sacks.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Brady is 8-0 on Thursday nights with 20 touchdowns and two interceptions.

2. The Dolphins beat visiting New England 33-20 in the 2014 season opener by scoring 23 unanswered second-half points.

3. Edelman has 26 catches for 322 yards and two TDs in the last three meetings versus Miami.

PREDICTION: Patriots 30, Dolphins 22

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's game
Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (6-0)-- Miami is 2-0 under interim coach Campbell, running ball for 428 yards, completing 84% of passes, but that was vs Titans/Texans. Dolphins are 0-6 in last six visits to Foxboro, with five losses by 10+ points- they did beat Patriots last two years in Miami. Patriots are 27-20-2 as home favorites since '09 (1-0-2 this year) winning by 7-34-7 points. In last four games, NE foes started 36 of 41 drives 80+ yards from goal line; they're dominating field position. Since '07, Dolphins are 34-19-2 as road underdogs (1-0 this year). Pats won last four Thursday games (2-2 vs spread); Miami lost three of last five Thursday tilts. Over is 4-1 in last five games for both teams; Miami scored TD on defense in each of their last two games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8


Miami @ New England

Game 101-102
October 29, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
135.278
New England
139.314
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 4
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+8 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 29

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Dolphins at Patriots
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The home team has covered in six consecutive meetings between the AFC East rivals.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-8, 50.5)

A change in head coaches has been akin to a magic wand for the revitalized Miami Dolphins, who have rolled up 82 points in romping to a pair of lopsided victories since Dan Campbell replaced the fired Joe Philbin. The Dolphins may need some magic when they head north to visit Tom Brady and the undefeated New England Patriots in an AFC East matchup on Thursday night.

Miami had lost three in a row and failed to score more than 20 points in each of its first four games before Philbin was let go, but it has responded to the change with a 38-10 romp at Tennessee before a 44-26 mauling of Houston on Sunday. “You look at our work out there and it really was a team effort,” Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill said after leading his team to a 41-0 halftime lead over the Texans on Sunday. New England rallied from a 20-16 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the visiting New York Jets 30-23 in a showdown for division supremacy. The Patriots, who are averaging a league-best 35.5 points, have won eight of the last 10 meetings versus Miami.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 8.5-point home favorites and have been bet down slightly to the current number of New England -8. The total has been bet down from 51.5 to 50.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-2) - Patriots (-9.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -10.5

INJURY REPORT:

Miami - CB B. McCain (probable Thursday, knee), CB B. Grimes (probable Thursday, knee), C M. Pouncey (probable Thursday, hip), LB S. Paysinger (probable Thursday, groin), DB Z. Bowman (probable Thursday, shoulder), DT A. Francis (questionable Thursday, back).

Patriots - OL S. Mason (questionable Thursday, knee), RB B. Bolden (questionable Thursday, knee), RB D. Lewis (questionable Thursday, abdominal), WR K. Martin (questionable Thursday, hamstring), OL M. Cannon (out Thursday, toe).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy around kickoff, but should clear up throughout the evening. There is just a 10 percent chance of rain and with temperatures in the low 50's. There will also be an eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Tannehill compiled a perfect passer rating of 158.3 while going 18-of-19 for 282 yards with four touchdowns while establishing an NFL record with 25 consecutive completions over a two-game span. The biggest beneficiary of the coaching change has been running back Lamar Miller, who averaged 32.8 yards rushing in his first four games before putting up 113 yards against Tennessee and 175 versus Houston while scoring in both games. The Dolphins have also come alive on the other side of the ball by recording nine of their sacks over the past two games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-0, 3-2-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Facing a Jets defense that ranked among the league leaders in nearly every category, New England eschewed the run and put the ball in the hands of Brady, who threw for 355 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns. Brady, who became the fifth QB in league history to surpass 55,000 yards, has 16 TD passes versus one interception and his favorite targets are Julian Edelman (45 receptions, four TDs) and behemoth tight end Rob Gronkowski, who already has six receiving scores. The Patriots are allowing 21 points per game but rank fourth in the league with 21 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Favorites are 4-1 ATS in their five meetings.
* Under is 6-0-1 in the Dolphins last seven Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is fairly split for this AFC East showdown, with 53. 38 percent of wagers backing the Patriots.

[StarDust Bum]

Why Week 8 is a crucial tipping point for NFL Over/Under bettors

The Bengals roster is loaded with offensive weapons, which has Cincinnati going 5-1 Over/Under heading into Week 8.

We are nearly at the halfway mark in the NFL season, and the power dynamics of the NFL are coming into focus. The Patriots seem intent on destroying everyone, the Broncos remain undefeated despite looking extremely beatable, and Texans, despite shining on HBO’s Hard Knocks, don’t seemed to have improved much. But how will our observations hold up over the remainder of the season?

Turning our attention to totals, will Cleveland, Houston and Cincinnati - which have each hit the Over in all but one game so far - continue to produce high-scoring finishes? Will Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia - all of which have only gone Over once so far - continue to be involved in low-scoring games?

Essentially, we wanted to know if we can use a team’s performance in the first half-ish of the season (prior to Week 8) to predict its Over/Under performance for the remainder of the season (Week 8 and later).

We looked into this using a long-term dataset, going back to 1985. For each team, we looked at the percentage of games that went Over the total for both before and after (and including) Week 8. We then ran a regression, trying to predict the percentage of games a team would go Over the total in the second half of the season using their Over/Under percentage from the first half as the independent variable.

We looked at whether teams that went Over the total continued that trend in the second half. Running a regression, we found there to be a significant correlation between performance in the first half versus the second half. The coefficient of the previous half performance was negative and highly significant with a p-value of 0.000315.

The negative coefficient is interesting, as it shows that teams that often play Over the total in the first half actually go Under the total more often than not in the second half of the season. This suggests that the betting market expects teams in high-scoring games to continue to be in high-scoring games, leading the totals being raised for said teams. This again reflects, as we’ve said in previous posts, how the betting public see streams that contain some randomness and assign to them more significance than they deserve.

Looking at the numbers, let’s focus on the extremes: teams that are consistently going either Over or Under. Let’s look at teams that went Over either greater than 80 percent or less than 20 percent of the time. This would basically be going all but one game Over, or all but one game Under.

Since 1985, there have 62 teams that have gone Over at least 80 percent of the time prior to Week 8. Those teams have been involved in 853 unique games after Week 8, seven of which pushed for the total.

Of the games that didn’t push, only 395 of them went Over - just 46.6 percent. Although this isn’t a huge difference, given the large sample size, it’s statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.054.

We can also see that there have been 82 teams that have gone Over in less than 20 percent of their games before Week 8, and have been involved in 1161 unique games after Week 8 in the the total bet did not push. Of those, 625 of them - 53.8 percent - ended up going Over the total. Again, this is not a huge difference but is pretty significant, with a p-value of 0.009774.

So all of this suggests that bettors see teams scoring a lot of points, letting up a lot of points, and generally just being involved in high-scoring games (or vice versa with low-scoring game) and assume that trend will continue to the second half of the season.

It’s also interesting that same thing is not happening with teams who win ATS more often than not, because this suggests that bettors know how to properly evaluate teams that do so. Either they don’t raise their expectations that much, or it is a sign that the team is actually better than expected. For the discrepancy that we see with totals, however, it suggests that bettors may be reading too much into a series of especially high or low-scoring games.

Looking at this season, there are six teams that fit into one of the categories that we looked at. Cleveland, Houston and Cincinnati have all gone Over the total in all but one game, and so you might now look for totals that seem too high for those teams and take the Under on those games. Meanwhile, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have gone Over the total line in less than 20 percent of their games, so it might be wise to take a long look at the Over in their remaining games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 29


Under bets trending in primetime games

Heading into Thursday night's meeting between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, the Over/Under count in primetime games is 7-14-1.

So far, that number is a stark contrast to what we saw last season when the Over was the king of primetime games, going 34-16 on the season.

Underdogs have also been hot on the national stage, going 13-8-1 against the spread in primetime action.

Books opened the total for Thursday's game at 51.5, but that has since come down to 50.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/29/15 )

MONDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/26/15 )


*****......................... 0 - 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS.............0 - 1 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.................1 - 0 - 0
BLOW OUT....................0 - 0
GOM.............................0 - 0
TOM..............................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 13 - 12 - 2
double play...................................29 - 20 - 2
triple play......................................15 - 14 - 1
blow out........................................ 4- 2 - 0
gom............................................... 1 - 0
goy............................................... 0 - 0
tom............................................... 1 - 1
totals............................................ 26 - 12 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................3 - 2 - 1
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM..............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY....................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 3 - 2 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 4 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 2
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM.................1 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT TOM..................0 - 1
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY...........................4 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................3 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO THURSDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/29/15

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:25 PM ET New England -8 500 THURSDAY NIGHT GOM

New England - Under 51.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 8 Essentials
October 28, 2015


Here comes Week Snowman. No. 8 should be great, continuing to ramp things up since there appear to be only a limited amount of teams harboring playoff aspirations.

Thursday, Oct. 29

Miami at New England:

Count on reigniting the ground game being a major part of the plan for the undefeated Patriots after an uneven performance against the Jets. Running back Dion Lewis was inactive on Sunday and would give the offense a boost if he’s available after an abdomen injury. Lewis practiced Tuesday. The Dolphins have blown out a pair of opponents to begin the Dan Campbell era but are facing their biggest challenge here, one that will answer questions about how the coaching staff matches up. As has been the case the past two weeks, Miami’s pass rush will play a huge role if we’re going to see an upset bid. Cameron Wake and Ndamakong Suh could feast on the Patriots revamped offensive line, but Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly will likely neutralize that potential disadvantage.

Sunday, Nov. 1

Detroit at Kansas City:

Charcandrick West broke off 110 yards on 22 carries to help the Chiefs take down the Steelers on Sunday, keeping the team alive as they look to overcome a crippling season-ending injury to Jamaal Charles. This is a must-win too, so West will have to produce again but should have help with Jeremy Maclin expected to be cleared following concussion protocol. Matthew Stafford had x-rays on his hand come back negative and should play. The best part about this game being in London is envisioning British analysts breaking down the contest. But what about Charcandrick West? Cheerio.

Minnesota at Chicago:

The Vikings have taken advantage of a light schedule and are entrenched in the No. 6 spot in the NFC as they square off against their sixth opponent with a losing record at Soldier Field. The Bears come off a bye week, their first under John Fox, who has great weapons in coordinators Adam Gase and Vic Fangio getting extra time to concentrate on this one. If Jay Cutler doesn’t turn the ball over, the Bears will have an opportunity to make the rest of the NFC’s playoff hopefuls awfully happy here.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta:

Jameis Winston and the Bucs blew an opportunity to win a huge road game in Landover, faltering after taking a 24-0 lead and winding up with 16 penalties for 142 yards. Lovie Smith went 0-for-2 against the Falcons last season and now has to deal with Dan Quinn as his future as Tampa Bay’s head coach is openly questioned. The Falcons offense has sputtered of late, but has the personnel worth backing to snap out of their funk.

San Diego at Baltimore:

Philip Rivers has an improved offensive line to operate behind now that the guys up front are getting healthier. Considering his special relationship with Keenan Allen, a marginal team becomes far more imposing as a result, especially with Antonio Gates hoping to return and fortify a tight end combination with Ladarius Green that looks like the best in the league. The Ravens come off a road Monday night game and have been away from home for consecutive weeks, which could complicate matters. It’s become painfully obvious that Baltimore won’t be part of the postseason picture this season, so there’s a possibility that John Harbaugh’s team checks out on him given all the injured leaders unable to guide by example.

Arizona at Cleveland:

Arizona might wind up dealing with a Monday night hangover after a home win over the Ravens. After surviving down the stretch as the Ravens drove inside the red zone, the Cardinals will run into a Browns squad that struggled offensively last week and will be looking to right the ship despite their lack of weapons. Given Johnny Manziel’s issues, getting Josh McCown back up to speed is Cleveland’s top priority. The Cards won’t make that easy.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans:

Look for Eli Manning’s return home to carry major implications given the standings in the NFC East. After Sunday night’s win over Dallas, the Giants have officially survived their brutal 0-2 start and have put themselves in position to win the division without many major missteps. The Saints have survived a rough spot too and seem to be getting the best from Drew Brees, who spent the first portion of the season injured and establishing new post-Jimmy Graham relationships. Both teams are going to want this one badly.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh:

Look for Ben Roethlisberger’s return to be the most important development here. Despite a damaging loss at Arrowhead, the Steelers still have managed to overcome an injury to their quarterback and remain a threat in the AFC. The Bengals are looking to remain undefeated and send another message that they’ve separated themselves from the back in the North. Count on Todd Haley simplifying things for Roethlisberger, who will be thrown into the fire at less than 100 percent against an elite defense.

San Francisco at St. Louis:

Colin Kaepernick has been hit-or-miss all season and takes the field looking to win a divisional game after falling short against Seattle. The Rams defense was dominant against Cleveland and will be tough to overcome, but a healthy Anquan Boldin would certai/nly help matters. Nick Foles has quietly gotten the job done for the Rams, but this is all about keeping Kaepernick from finding a rhythm.

NY. Jets at Oakland:

Coming off an awful setback against the Patriots, New York hits the road for its longest road trip under vTodd Bowles. Since Derek Carr and receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have become such a force, this no longer looks like an easy bounce-back game, setting up a tremendous matchup between receivers and corners. Jets WR Brandon Marshall does have some atonement in mind given the missed opportunities in Sunday’s loss to New England and will join Eric Decker in being problematic.

Tennessee at Houston:

Marcus Mariota is set to practice for the remainder of the week, so odds are he’ll be out there under center for this Oilers Bowl. The Titans are expecting to struggle but would love it if their top draft pick is out there getting on-the-job training. Jadeveon Clowney participated last week and got his first career sack, so we’ll see if the Texans are going to be able to turn things around at home.

Seattle at Dallas:

The Cowboys may have Dez Bryant back and also probably found a starting running back given Darren McFadden’s performance against the Giants. Unfortunately, Matt Cassel proved that mistakes could again be his downfall, which should be an issue against a Seahawks secondary that badly wants to make up for lost time and restore their reputation as the best unit in the game.

Green Bay at Denver:

Two undefeated teams spent all week thinking about one another, so the Sunday night matchup should be brilliant. Aaron Rodgers vs. Peyton Manning sounds like an awful mismatch, but the Broncos defense has been tremendous and certainly give the home team a chance here, particularly with a road environment involved. The Broncos have to run the football and will need Manning to be on his game in recognizing coverage and blitzes, an underrated part of his game that has also fueled his undefeated start.

Monday, Nov. 2

Indianapolis at Carolina:

While it’s looking increasingly likely that Chuck Pagano won’t be part of what the Colts do going forward, he’s still at the helm of the team most likely to come out of the NFL’s worst division. That makes this contest against undefeated Carolina very interesting. Andrew Luck simply hasn’t looked like himself and faces an elite secondary led by Josh Norman that has made a living changing game. Luke Kuechly made it back too, so the Colts will be facing the best defense they’ve seen all season.

[StarDust Bum]

Public Fades - Week 8
October 29, 2015


Five teams are listed as home underdogs in Week 8 of the NFL, which includes the 6-0 Broncos, who host the 6-0 Packers on Sunday night. Four clubs are playing their second consecutive road game, as those squads this season own a dreadful 6-19 straight-up record. The Vikings, Jets, and Seahawks are listed as favorites in this situation, including New York traveling to Oakland for a late afternoon kickoff.

In this week’s edition of Public Fades, we’ll focus on going against the Jets and Seahawks, two teams that have combined for a 2-4 record in true road games (not counting New York’s victory in London over Miami). Can the Raiders win two straight and the Cowboys snap their four-game skid?

Jets (-2 ½, 44 ½) at Raiders – 4:05 PM EST

New York came close to handing New England its first loss of the season, but couldn’t hold onto a 20-16 lead in a 30-23 setback. The Jets allowed a season-high in points, while Tom Brady threw for 355 yards on 54 attempts, as the Patriots ran the ball only nine times for 16 yards. A late Nick Folk field goal managed to give Jets’ backers a push as seven-point underdogs, as New York owns a 4-1-1 ATS record this season.

The Raiders return home after an impressive 37-29 triumph at San Diego as 3 ½-point road underdogs, while building a commanding 30-6 halftime advantage. Oakland won only its second away game since the start of 2013, as Derek Carr tossed three touchdown passes, while rookie Amari Cooper hauled in over 100 yards receiving for the third time this season. The Raiders have lost twice so far at the Black Hole, but those two defeats came to teams that own a combined 12-0 record (Bengals and Broncos).

So why back the Raiders?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson feels it will be tough for New York to follow up last week’s loss heading west, “The Jets have frequently played the Patriots tough in recent seasons and those are always two of the biggest games of the year. It can be tough to bring that same focus the following week and the Jets are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games following up a New England game. The Jets have been a road favorite just twice in the past two seasons and Oakland is looking like a formidable team with stockpiled talent starting to come together in Jack Del Rio’s first season leading the Raiders.”

Nelson points out that the Jets haven’t exactly beaten top-notch competition so far, “All four New York wins have come against losing teams, something the Raiders currently are not for a rare instance of the team being .500 this far into the season. Oakland also lost one-score games to Chicago and Denver and Oakland has been the slightly superior offensive team in this matchup on a yards-per-play basis. The strong play for the Raiders has come with three of the last four games on the road as this will be a rare opportunity to host a marquee opponent with something on the line given what may wind up being a tight AFC Wild Card picture.”

NFL expert Antony Dinero says Oakland’s young receivers will be a challenge for New York’s secondary, “Although the Raiders are going to pop out on film as being far better than they have been, this challenge is definitely a tough spot for Jets players who put such an emphasis on making a run at a New England and now have to focus on this Oakland squad. After taking a 37-6 lead through three quarters in San Diego, Del Rio’s team isn’t lacking for confidence. Cooper and Michael Crabtree will give Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie major issues.”

Seahawks (-6, 41) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Seattle dropped to 2-4 two weeks ago following a disappointing home loss to undefeated Carolina, but the Seahawks rebounded with an impressive road victory last Thursday at struggling San Francisco. Pete Carroll’s club pulled within a game of .500 as the Seahawks trail the Cardinals by two games in the NFC West. In all three victories this season, Seattle hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown, while giving up just 13 points those wins, compared to an average of 28.7 points allowed in its four defeats.

The Cowboys are counting the days until Tony Romo returns from his broken clavicle, as Dallas has dropped four straight games since a 2-0 start. The latest defeat came last Sunday against the rival Giants, as New York used a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to break a 20-20 tie in a 27-20 win by the Giants. Darren McFadden rushed for 152 yards in the loss for Dallas, while Matt Cassel was picked off three times in his first start with the Cowboys, as Dallas has covered only once in six games.

So why back the Cowboys?

In breaking down Seattle’s wins, Nelson says this team hasn’t faced strong offenses, “The Seahawks still have good defensive numbers, but they are a bit skewed having faced a struggling 49ers offense that is arguably the worst in the NFL as well as a Bears’ team with Jimmy Clausen starting that week. The Rams, Packers, Bengals, and Panthers all out-gained Seattle this season and Dallas has been a productive offensive team, gaining 6.0 yards per carry and completing over 72 percent of passes.”

Playing away from the Pacific Northwest has also been a struggle for the defending NFC champions, “Seattle has not been the same team on the road going 1-3 this season away from home and this will be a second straight road game with long travel going up against a desperate Cowboys team looking to snap a four-game slide. Dallas has won four of the last five meetings between these franchises going back to 2008 including out-gaining last season’s NFC champions by nearly 200 yards in a 30-23 win in Seattle last October,” Nelson notes.

NFL handicapper Vince Akins says in spite of the four turnovers last week, Dallas is in an advantageous betting spot, “Teams coming off a game with a -4 turnover margin or worse improve the next game on average, covering 53.1% of the time, and the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in that spot since 2008. Looking at Dallas specifically in spots where they were road dogs last game and lost primarily due to turnovers, they’ve seen dramatic improvement the next game going 13-0-2 ATS since November 2003 coming off a road loss as at least a two-point dog where they committed at least two turnovers.”