The Bum's College Football Week # 9 Rated Plays, Trends, News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

Buffalo at Miami (Ohio)
When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 29, 2015
Where: Fred Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio

QUICK HITS

Overall Team Offense

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are ranked 119 on offense, averaging 327.0 yards per game. The Redhawks are averaging 116.8 yards rushing and 210.2 yards passing so far this season.
The Buffalo Bulls are ranked 86 on offense, averaging 376.0 yards per game. The Bulls are averaging 145.7 yards rushing and 230.3 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are 1-2 at home this season, 0-4 against conference opponents and 1-3 against non-conference opponents.
At home the Redhawks are averaging 23.7 scoring, and holding teams to 29.7 points scored on defense.
The Buffalo Bulls are 1-2 while on the road this season, 1-2 against conference opponents and 2-2 against non-conference opponents.
On the road, the Bulls are averaging 20.3 scoring, and holding teams to 31.0 points scored on defense.

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Oregon at Arizona State
When: 10:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 29, 2015
Where: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona


Two teams that have fallen short of expectations meet Thursday as Oregon visits Arizona State, which has lost eight straight in the series. The contest features two of the top running backs in the Pac-12 in Oregon’s Royce Freeman and Arizona State’s Demario Richard, who is expected to start after missing the Sun Devils’ 34-18 loss to Utah on Oct. 17 due to a knee injury.

Freeman ranks fourth nationally in rushing yards at 142.4 per game to power Oregon, which remained in the Pac-12 North race with a 26-20 win over Washington on Oct. 17. The victory marked the return of Ducks quarterback Vernon Adams Jr., who threw two touchdown passes against the Huskies after missing 11 quarters due to a broken index finger. “He’s everything for them,” Arizona State coach Todd Graham told reporters. "That’s one of the things that’s caused them to struggle is not having him. He’s just so athletic and extends plays. He’s so dangerous when he’s scrambling around throwing the ball down the field.” Adams will need to be alert against an aggressive Sun Devils defense that blitzes as much as any team in the nation but ranks last in the Pac-12 with a minus-0.57 turnover ratio.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Arizona State -2.5

ABOUT OREGON (4-3, 2-2 Pac-12):

The Ducks’ passing game received a boost against the Huskies with the season debut of wide receiver Darren Carrington, who caught two touchdown passes after missing the first six games of the season due to suspension. Defensive end DeForest Buckner has five sacks to lead a unit that held Washington in check after allowing a total of 1,171 yards in losses to Utah and Washington State. The Ducks have recorded 16 sacks over the last three games and shown improvement in the secondary, where two-way player Charles Nelson is set to make his third straight start at safety.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (4-3, 2-2):

The Sun Devils failed to score an offensive touchdown in its last game and needs more consistency from quarterback Mike Bercovici, who ranks 10th in the conference in efficiency. Linebacker Salamo Fiso and safety Jordan Simone lead the Sun Devil defense, which ranks second in the Pac-12 against the rush but will be tested by Freeman and a Ducks offense that averages a league-leading 297.4 rushing yards. Arizona State also boasts a top kick returner in Tim White, who could be a difference-maker against an Oregon coverage unit that has allowed 22.9 yards per kickoff.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Arizona State is 19-5 at Sun Devil Stadium under Graham.

2. Oregon has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 75 straight games dating to Sept. 4, 2010.

3. Sun Devils WR D.J. Foster has caught a pass in an FBS-leading 47 consecutive games, one shy of the Pac-12 record held by Kareem Kelly of USC (1999-2002).

PREDICTION: Oregon 34, Arizona State 27

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Thursday's Tip Sheet
October 27, 2015


The Thursday night schedule in college football features six games this week with major conference action in the ACC, Big XII, Pac-12, as well as the MAC and Sun Belt for a huge midseason Thursday night slate. Here is a quick look at the three major conference games to kick off the final weekend of October in college football.

Match-up: North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers
Venue: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Time/TV: Thursday, October 29, 7:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: North Carolina -3, Over/Under 54½
Last Meeting: 2014, at North Carolina (-2½) 40, Pittsburgh 35

This matchup has emerged as a key game in the ACC Coastal standings as Pittsburgh is quietly 4-0 in league play and North Carolina is 3-0. Pittsburgh has outscored its foes by just 17 combined points in the four ACC wins, while North Carolina owns a 56-point margin in its three ACC wins. In last season’s meeting in Chapel Hill, Pittsburgh led early and took the lead back with just over three minutes to go, but the Tar Heels answered to win 40-35 with a touchdown in the final minute.

Junior running back James Conner and junior quarterback Chad Voytik were expected to lead the Panthers this season, but Conner was injured early in the season and Voytik has been bested by junior Nathan Peterman, who has completed over 68 percent of his passes with only three interceptions in leading the offense. Freshman Qdree Ollison has picked up the slack in the backfield with 662 yards rushing this season, while junior wide receiver Tyler Boyd has 53 receptions already this season, the 15th-most nationally. Pittsburgh has also featured a top-20 total defense this season with great improvement from last season in Pat Narduzzi’s first season as a head coach.

North Carolina had a crushing loss in the season opener, falling against South Carolina in a game they deserved to win, but had a few costly mistakes in. At the time it looked like a quality defeat, but the Gamecocks have not had a strong season and it has been a weak schedule overall for the Tar Heels at this point in the season. North Carolina has not lost since the opener with six straight wins, mostly in lopsided fashion with the exception of the comeback win over Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels are scoring 38 points per game while allowing fewer than 17 points per game and quarterback Marquise Williams has delivered a strong start to his senior season with over 1,300 passing yards.

The winner of this game will be in the Coastal division driver’s seat although Duke will certainly still have a say in the matter in November with both of these teams facing the Blue Devils in the coming weeks. Next week’s Atlantic matchup between Clemson and Florida State will draw most of the attention for the conference, but the Coastal division race could provide a very tight finish with this game being the start of a run of several key games in the division.

Match-up: West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Forth Worth, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 29, 7:30 PM ET – FS1
Line: TCU -14, Over/Under 75
Last Meeting: 2014, TCU (-3½) 31, at West Virginia 30

Last season after beating Oklahoma and losing to Baylor in tight games, TCU destroyed Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in consecutive games winning by 33 and 55 points. Back in the top 10, the Frogs headed to Morgantown as a slight favorite and were fortunate to escape with a win. West Virginia had an early 13-point lead and again led by 13 into the third quarter. The Mountaineers still led by nine about halfway through the fourth quarter, but the offense went backwards on three straight possessions and TCU rallied for the narrow win. That was after overtime decided this series in the prior two seasons as this has quickly become a great Big XII matchup.

The stakes are higher for TCU this season as this is team hoping to get to the national playoff after narrowly missing out last season. The 7-0 start this season has already featured several close calls with three wins by a touchdown or less including comeback wins vs. Texas Tech and Kansas State. The tight finishes have all come on the road as TCU has been dominant at home, but this game precedes a huge game with still undefeated Oklahoma State next week as well as the potentially season-making games with Oklahoma and Baylor later in November. TCU has been one of the most productive offensive teams in the nation, but the defense has been vulnerable and Heisman candidate Trevone Boykin has needed some big games, already with 25 touchdowns on over 2,500 yards passing this season.

West Virginia is 0-3 in Big XII play, but they have had to play three of the top four teams, a trio of squads that are a combined 20-1 overall this season. West Virginia played closer to Oklahoma and Baylor than the final scores suggest and in the lone conference home game, the Mountaineers out-gained Oklahoma State by 82 yards but had four turnovers and lost in overtime. Quarterback Skyler Howard has had some big games but he has been turnover-prone while already taking 18 sacks on the season. The West Virginia defense has also not been able to get stops in conference play after posting dominant numbers in the 3-0 non-conference start for the Mountaineers.

TCU will get every team’s best shot this season and the stakes are extremely high especially with Baylor looking vulnerable after losing their starting quarterback. It is possible that a one-loss Big XII team could still make the national playoff after missing out with two quality one-loss squads last season, but TCU can’t have one of those losses come this week and hope to stay in the conversation. West Virginia has 11-19 record in three-plus seasons in Big XII play, but the Mountaineers have four wins over ranked teams in that span including being the team that beat a #4 ranked Baylor team last season.

Match-up: Oregon Ducks at Arizona State Sun Devils
Venue: Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona
Time/TV: Thursday, October 29, 10:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Arizona State -2½, Over/Under 66
Last Meeting: 2012, at Oregon (-8) 43, Arizona State 21

Arizona State has not had to play Oregon the past two seasons, certainly a scheduling break in the Pac-12 considering the Ducks have gone 24-4 the past two seasons. Oregon already has three losses this season, including two home losses as this has not been a team that has been able to sustain the wild success of the past several seasons as one of the top programs in the nation.

Oregon has had issues at quarterback this season as transfer Vernon Adams has missed most of four games including both Pac-12 losses. He returned last week in the win over Washington in Seattle, although he has not been able to live up to the production that Heisman winner Marcus Mariota provided. Royce Freeman has already rushed for nearly 1,000 yards this season as the Ducks are still an elite rushing and scoring team. Oregon has never been an elite defensive team given the toll that the quick-tempo offense can take, but this season the Ducks are allowing 36 points per game for a huge decline from the past few seasons.

While Oregon is buried in the Pac-12 North standings with two losses with Stanford already 5-0 in league play, Arizona State is still in the mix in the wide-open Pac-12 South. Utah leads at 3-1, but with several tough games to go and the Sun Devils at 2-2 are likely to be favored in every remaining conference game, although not by much as they are just a slight favorite this week and no games are easy in this deep league. Arizona State has not lived up to expectations in the 4-3 start as despite the nice win at UCLA, the Sun Devils lost by 21, 28, and 16 in the other three prominent games. Senior Mike Bercovici is having a strong statistical season, but he has taken 21 sacks as the offensive line and running game have been disappointing this season.

For a pair of teams that had hopes of a Pac-12 title and were considered sleepers in the national playoff hunt, the loser will head into Halloween weekend with four losses and a clear step-back result from the past two seasons. The winner can keep long shot hopes alive in the conference race, but can also at least keep itself in the mix for a more prominent bowl position with a path to finish as a respectably ranked team and avoid any growing grumbles about changes being made for either program with the tough first halves this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action
October 27, 2015


WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (3-3) at TCU HORNED FROGS (7-0)
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Ft. Worth, TX
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: TCU -14.5, Total: 75

No. 5 TCU could have another stiff test in its quest to stay unbeaten when the team entertains a desperate West Virginia squad on Thursday night.

The Mountaineers (2-4 ATS) started off the season nicely by crushing their first three opponents 130 to 23, but have now lost three straight games -- all to ranked teams -- by a combined score of 139 to 88.

The Horned Frogs are only 3-4 ATS despite an offense that has scored at least 45 points in six straight games, as three of their seven victories this season have been by seven points or less.

Speaking of close games, all three of the meetings between these schools in Big 12 play have been decided by a field goal or less, with the road team prevailing each time. TCU won 39-38 in Morgantown in 2012 and also claimed a 31-30 victory there last year. But West Virginia was double-digit underdog when it won 30-27 in the only meeting in Fort Worth two seasons ago.

The majority of betting trends for this matchup favor the Horned Frogs, who are 9-1 ATS at home and 7-0 ATS coming off a road win in the past two seasons, and 26-12 ATS off three straight conference wins under Gary Patterson. But those wanting to wager on the Mountaineers can point to the fact that underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points, after failing to cover the spread in three of the previous four games, against an opponent that covered the spread in two of its previous three games, are 224-143 ATS (61%) since 1992.

The short week makes it tough for injured players to recover quickly, and West Virginia's secondary could be missing both DBs Ricky Rumph (personal, doubtful) and Terrell Chestnut (shoulder, questionable). For TCU, LB Mike Freeze left the team earlier this week due to a personal matter, and WRs Emanuel Porter (knee) and KaVontae Turpin (undisclosed) are both questionable for this matchup.

West Virginia has displayed a powerful offense this season with 36.3 PPG and 486 total YPG. The team has great balance and the ability to both run the football (216 YPG, 4.3 YPC) and gain yards through the air (270 YPG, 8.0 YPA). But the biggest offensive weakness during the current three-game losing skid is turnovers, as WVU has 10 giveaways in these three defeats.

Junior QB Skyler Howard has thrown five interceptions in the past three games, but he's still putting up great numbers with 1,566 passing yards (8.3 YPA) on 59% completions, 15 TD and 6 INT. Howard has also shown dual-threat ability with 190 rushing yards and 2 TD, and these totals would be much greater had he not taken 18 sacks already.

For the Mountaineers to stay in this game, RB Wendell Smallwood will need to have a big game. The junior has rushed for at least 88 yards in all six contests and was pretty effective with 64 yards on 15 carries (4.3 YPC) versus TCU last year.

Defensively, WVU hasn't been terrible (27.0 PPG, 401 total YPG allowed) but the club has been gashed on the road for 53.0 PPG and 560 total YPG in two non-home games. Although the unit has an average time of possession of 28:29, it has still allowed 167 rushing YPG (4.3 YPC) and 233 passing YPG (7.6 YPA) despite a low 51% completion rate. The Mountaineers give up big yards because they like to gamble, but making plays on the football has also helped them produce 16 takeaways this season. Unfortunately for them, the Horned Frogs have committed only seven turnovers in seven games in 2015.

TCU's offense continues to thrive every week, averaging a robust 50.1 PPG and 616 total YPG this season. This includes 58.7 PPG and 650 total YPG in three home contests. A huge part of this success has been Heisman hopeful senior QB Trevone Boykin, who has completed 66% of his throws for 2,539 yards (364 YPG), 25 touchdowns and only five interceptions this year. In the past four games, he has tossed 15 TD and just two picks.

Boykin loves to target fellow senior WR Josh Doctson who already has 1,067 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, scoring at least two times with 125+ receiving yards in five straight games. Boykin has also hurt opponents with his legs, churning out 440 yards on the ground (5.7 YPC) and five touchdowns. Boykin was pretty quiet in Morgantown last season when he totaled 215 yards and 2 TD, but he completed only 12-of-30 throws and tossed an interception.

TCU's main rusher continues to be senior RB Aaron Green, who has 632 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and eight touchdowns. After gaining only seven yards on 12 carries at Iowa State last week, Green is looking for a bounce-back performance against a WVU team that he managed 63 yards on 11 carries (5.7 YPC) against last year.

The Horned Frogs don't have a very reliable defense, allowing opponents to score 26.6 PPG with 397 total YPG. Three opponents have scored 37+ points against them (SMU, Texas Tech and Kansas State) and they are giving up way too many first downs (21.9 per game). TCU defenders are struggling both on the ground (174 YPG, 4.2 YPC) and through the air (224 YPG, 6.6 YPA) despite opponents having a weak 52% completion rate. The Frogs have forced just 10 turnovers in seven contests, and would love to increase that against a turnover-prone Mountaineers squad on Thursday.

OREGON DUCKS (4-3) at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (4-3)
Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ
Kickoff: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona State -2.5, Total: 66

Two Pac-12 schools trying to salvage disappointing seasons and not fall back to .500 will meet on Thursday night in Tempe when Oregon visits Arizona State.

The Ducks (3-4 ATS) have alternated wins and losses all season, bouncing back from a shocking 45-38 home loss to Washington State on Oct. 10 with a 26-20 victory at Washington last game on Oct. 17.

Despite the struggles this season, they are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road. The Sun Devils (2-5 ATS) are just 1-3 ATS at home and are trying to get back in the win column after being pounded at Utah 34-18 on Oct. 17.

Thursday will mark the first meeting for these schools since 2012 when Oregon rolled to a 43-21 victory in Tempe, marking its eighth straight win (6-1-1 ATS) in the series, which have all been by double-digits. The last time Arizona State prevailed in this matchup was back in 2004, but the club is 5-4 ATS (3-6 SU) at home in this series since 1996.

The betting trends lean towards the underdog Ducks, who are 6-0 ATS with a 19.2 PPG margin in October road games since 2013 and fall into the category of good offensive road teams (31+ PPG) going 61-27 ATS (69%) after finishing Under the total in the past five seasons where the line is +3 to -3.

But the Sun Devils are 33-17 ATS at home in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992 and Todd Graham is 7-0 ATS at home in his coaching career after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

While Oregon has only one new significant injury to deal with after the bye week (DB Chris Seisay out indefinitely with a foot injury), Arizona State lost TE Dan Vear (undisclosed) for the season and has three others questionable for Thursday in TE Grant Martinez (ankle), LB Nick Ralston (undisclosed) and FS Armand Perry (ankle).

Oregon's offense isn't as powerful as in recent years, but is still averaging 39.3 PPG and 516 total YPG. However, these numbers dip to 31.7 PPG and 470 total YPG on the road. The ground game has been particularly impressive during the 2015 campaign with 297 rushing YPG on 5.9 YPC, but the team is also capable of throwing the football with 219 passing YPG on 7.9 YPA and 61% completions.

Senior QB Vernon Adams Jr. finally appears to be healthy and is coming off a solid 272 passing yards at Washington where he tossed 2 TD and 0 INT. In his only other road game back on Sept. 12 at Michigan State, the Eastern Washington transfer threw for 309 yards and a touchdown, but was also picked off twice.

His favorite target is junior WR Bralon Addison, whose 31 receptions are more than twice as much as any teammate, leading to a team-high 365 yards and 3 TD. Addison's lone 100-yard effort came in that trip to East Lansing, so he's definitely glad Adams is back under center.

While the Ducks have several explosive ball carriers, none are as productive as sophomore RB Royce Freeman who has galloped for 997 yards on 6.6 YPC and nine touchdowns this season. Freeman has topped 100 yards on the ground in five of his seven games including three straight contests of at least 138 rushing yards.

But for Oregon to finally string together a two-game win streak, it will have to shore up its defense that has surrendered 36.0 PPG and 462 total YPG this year.

The main deficiency is a pass defense giving up 307 YPG on 7.0 YPA and 64% completions, as the run-stop unit has limited teams to a respectable 155 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC. The Ducks have 13 forced turnovers this year though, and are facing a Sun Devils club that has yet to produce a turnover-free game.

Arizona State's offense isn't as powerful as head coach Todd Graham would like with 29.1 PPG on 420 total YPG for the season, but those numbers jump to 32.7 PPG and 481 total YPG at home.

While the Sun Devils have gained 264 YPG (6.7 YPA) on 58% completions, they have only 156 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC, including a miserable 15 yards on 28 carries in their last game at Utah. Senior QB Mike Bercovici has only one 300-yard passing game in 2015, but has thrown for more than 240 yards in six straight contests, tossing 14 TD and only 5 INT this season. He's not reliant on just one receiver, as six different players have gained more than 200 yards with senior WR Devin Lucien leading the way with 338 receiving yards, including a season-high 118 at Utah.

Junior WR Tim White owns a team-best five receiving touchdowns and went for a season-high 144 yards and 2 TD in his last home game on Oct. 10 versus Colorado. Sophomore RB Demario Richard leads the team with 529 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) despite missing the Utah loss with a knee injury, but he is probable to return on Thursday.

He'll try to sustain drives and take the pressure off a middling ASU defense allowing 27.3 PPG and 381 total YPG.

The run-stop unit has played very well in limiting opponents to 129 YPG on 3.2 YPC, but the secondary has surrendered 252 passing YPG on 7.9 YPA. The Sun Devils have generated only nine turnovers all season and will likely need to force some mistakes to beat the high-powered Ducks.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday - Oct, 29

North Carolina at Pittsburgh, 7:00 ET
N Carolina: 4-13 ATS after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins
Pittsburgh: 36-30 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan, 7:30 ET
W Michigan: 13-4 ATS in games played on turf
E Michigan: 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Buffalo at Miami, 7:30 ET
Buffalo: 7-0 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers
Miami: 0-6 ATS in home games after 3 or more straight up losses

Texas State at Georgia Southern, 7:30 ET
Texas ST: 3-4 ATS off an upset win as an underdog
Georgia S: 23-3 ATS in games played on a grass field

West Virginia at TCU, 7:30 ET
W Virginia: 2-10 ATS off a loss against a conference rival
TCU: 7-0 ATS off a road win

Oregon at Arizona State, 10:30 ET
Oregon: 69-46 ATS in road lined games
Arizona St: 2-9 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70


Friday - Oct, 30

Louisville at Wake Forest, 7:00 ET
Louisville: 7-0 ATS in road games in games played on turf
Wake Forest: 8-0 UNDER off 2 losses by 10 pts or more to conf rivals

East Carolina at Connecticut, 7:00 ET
E Caroilna: 2-10 ATS against conference opponents
Connecticut: 16-5 ATS in home games off a road loss against a conference rival

Louisiana Tech at Rice, 8:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 8-21 ATS off a blowout win by 21 pts or more over a conf rival
Rice: 20-8 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game

Wyoming at Utah State, 10:15 ET
Wyoming: 1-8 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game
Utah State: 13-4 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's games
Pitt won its last four games, three by 4 or less points; its only loss was 27-24 at unbeaten Iowa. Panthers lost 34-27/40-35 in first couple ACC meetings with North Carolina. UNC won six in row since 17-13 opening loss to South Carolina; since '06, Tar Heels are 6-10 as road faves. Pitt is 7-4 as home dog since '08; they beat Virginia 26-19 in only I-A home tilt. UNC won 38-31 at Ga Tech, in only true road game this season. ACC home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread.

Western Michigan pounded Eastern Michigan 51-7 LY, after losing three in row to Eagles before that; EMU lost last six games overall, allowing average of 46.5 ppg since they won at Wyoming. Since '06, Eagles are 12-23-1 as home dogs, 1-2 this year. WMU scored 41.7 ppg in winning last three games; they're 2-5 in last seven games as road favorite. MAC home underdogs are 5-6 vs spread. Two of WMU's three losses are to Michigan State/Ohio State; three of its four wins are by 22+ points.

Buffalo won last three games with Miami, winning 44-7 (-24) last visit here, in '13; Bulls lost three of last four games overall, are 1-2 on the road with lone win 33-15 at FAU. Buffalo is 9-4-1 in last 14 games as a fave; over last decade, they're 5-2-1 as road favorites. Miami is 0-7 vs its I-A opponents, five by 22+ points; their last three losses are by an average score of 38-9.

Georgia Southern (-14) won 28-25 at Texas State LY, despite TSU's edge in TY (439-268); Eagles had five-game win streak snapped Saturday at Appalachian State- they're 3-3 as home favorites since moving up to I-A. Bobcats allowed 272+ rushing yards in last four games; they're 0-3 as a road dog this year, outscored 56-19 in tose games. Southern ran ball for 383+ yards in all five wins; they were held under 200 in both losses.

Road team won all three West Virginia-TCU gsmes, which were decided by total of five points; WVa (+12) won 30-27 here in '13. Mountaineers lost last three games, allowing 46.3 ppg, losing 44-24 at Oklahoma in only road game this season- they're 6-5 as road dogs under Holgorsen. TCU scored 51.6 ppg in winning last five I-A games; they're 7-1 in last eight games as a home favorite. Big X home favorites are 8-3 vs spread.

Oregon won last three games with Arizona State by 22-14-11 points, but last meeting was in '12; Ducks are just 3-3 in last six games overall but won last two on road, 41-24 at Colorado, 26-20 at Washington- they are 3-0 as road underdogs last 5.5 years, 2-0 this year. ASU scored 34+ in its four wins, 7-14-18 in losses; they're 12-7 as home faves in Graham era, 1-1 this year. Oregon gained 504 ypg in its last three games.

[StarDust Bum]

Why wiseguys are timing these college football bets perfectly in Week 9

Despite Michigan's heart-breaking loss to MSU in its last game, the Wolverines will draw money against Minnesota in Week 9 - opening up value on the Golden Gophers if you wait it out.

Spread to bet now

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6) at Virginia Cavaliers

Novice bettors tend to remember what they saw last and that was Georgia Tech beating Florida State, giving the Seminoles their first loss of the season. National TV winners tend to get bet the following week, and that’s the case here with the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech opened between -3 and -4 at various sportsbooks, and early money pushed this line up to -6. The line is still short based on my power ratings, as I made Georgia Tech -7.5 over Virginia. The Cavaliers are not a good team and with a mishmash offensive line because of injuries, it’s hard to see Virginia trading points with the Yellow Jackets. Lay the -6 now before the line goes up to the key number of -7.

Spread to wait on

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+14)

Michigan is not in the best of spots for this game at Minnesota. The Wolverines blew their biggest game to date at home against their rival Michigan State on a punting mishap. A loss like that tends to linger despite Michigan having a bye last week. Now off a week of rest, they are laying way too many points on the road against a decent team.

My power ratings make Michigan -10.5 over Minnesota, so there is some line value on the Golden Gophers. Minnesota is also off a bye and, since the Gophers lost their previous home game before the week off, the team will be primed for a peak performance. Wait this game out and take Minnesota +14.5 or more.

Total to watch

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (79)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech figures to be high-scoring shootout. The teams match up extremely well for a lot of points to be scored. The Cowboys have a potent passing attack that averages 333 yards per game on 8.7 yards per pass attempt.

Texas Tech also owns a powerful passing offense with the Red Raiders throwing for 406 yards per game on 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 40.3 points per game while Texas Tech’s offense is averaging 46.6 points per game. The two teams should both eclipse the 40-point mark with relative ease.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 29

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Game of the Day: North Carolina at Pittsburgh
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First place is the ACC Coastal is on the line when the Tar Heels visit the Panthers on Thursday night.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers (+3, 54.5)

North Carolina attempts to build a seven-game winning streak for the first time since 1997 when it visits Pittsburgh on Thursday in a battle between two of the ACC Coastal Division’s three unbeaten teams. The Tar Heels have limited five of their last six opponents to 14 points or fewer while 24th-ranked Pittsburgh has won four straight contests – all by seven points or fewer.

“If it’s a close game you have to step up and make something happen,” Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi told reporters. “Our offense did it (last) weekend and our defense did it the past couple (weekends).” Pittsburgh quarterback Nathan Peterman has thrown six touchdown passes with no interceptions during the win streak and his top target Tyler Boyd is one of the nation’s most productive receivers. North Carolina, which hosts the other unbeaten Coastal squad Duke next week, boasts the league’s best passing defense (137.3 yards against per game) and senior quarterback Marquise Williams leads the top-ranked offense in the ACC. “Last five games are going to be tough,” Williams told the Raleigh News & Observer. “We’ve just got to stick together as a team.”

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: North Carolina opened as 1.5-point road favorites and have been bet up to -3. The total opened at 53.5 and was also bet up to 54.5.

INJURY REPORT:

North Carolina - OL T. Hatton (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), CB M. Stewart (questionable Thursday, suspension).

Pittsburgh - WR T. Tripton (probable Thursday, hip), DB T. Webb (probable Thursday, ankle), WR C. Wuestner (out Thursday, abdominal), DB R. Mitchell (out Thursday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy at game time with a very slight 10 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the high 40's and there will be a nine mile per hour cross-field wind.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (6-1, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Williams has completed 66.9 percent of his passes and thrown four interceptions in the last six games after tossing three in the opener. Quinshad Davis (30 catches, 328 yards) is one of four Tar Heels receivers to have accumulated at least 300 yards this season and needs two receptions to pass Hakeem Nicks (181) for the school record. Elijah Hood has rushed for 100 or more yards four times in 2015 – including each of the last two games – and scored eight TDs while Williams is gaining seven yards per carry.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-1, 4-3 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U): Boyd leads the league in catches (8.8) and receiving yards (81.5) per game while completing both of his pass attempts and rushing for 68 yards. “He’s done it all,” Narduzzi told reporters. “I don’t know why people aren’t talking about him for the Heisman.” Qadree Ollison has filled in nicely after James Conner was lost for the season with a knee injury, totaling 662 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, while the Panthers boast 22 sacks – second in the ACC and three more than all of last season.

TRENDS:

* North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 6-0 in North Carolina's last six Thursday games.
* Over is 5-0 in Pittsburgh's last five games versus a team with winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is split down the middle for this big ACC clash with 50.73 percent of wagers giving Pittsburgh the slight edge.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 29


Chance of thunderstorms when Ducks visit Sun Devils

According to weather forecasts, there is a 43 percent possibility of thunderstorms when the Arizona State Sun Devils host the Oregon Ducks in Pac-12 action from Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe Thursday evening.

Temperatures in Tempe will be in the los-70s and wind is expected to blow across the field at around six miles per hour.

The probability of thunderstorms is expected to dip to around 36 percent as the game progresses.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
October 28, 2015

**Louisville at Wake Forest**

-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Louisville (3-4 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) listed as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 42. The Demon Deacons were +360 on the money line (risk $100 to win $360).

-- Wake Forest (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost back-to-back contests and four of its last five, including a 35-17 home loss to North Carolina State this past Saturday. The Wolfpack took the cash as a nine-point road favorite, while the 52 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 43.5-point tally. The Demon Deacons gave up four touchdown plays of 57 yards or longer in the first quarter alone, falling behind 28-0.

-- Wake Forest QB Kendall Hinton completed 12-of-22 passes against N.C. St. for 107 yards. He rushed 13 times for 75 yards and a pair of TDs. For the season, the true freshman has rushed for 330 yards and six TDs while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Hinton has connected on just 54.4 percent of his throws for 812 yards with a 2/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- Louisville lost three one-possession games to start the season. Bobby Petrino’s squad dropped a 31-24 decision against Auburn at the Georgia Dome in the season opener. Next, the Cardinals lost at home to Houston (34-31) and Clemson (20-17), but they responded with consecutive triumphs vs. Samford (45-3) and at N.C. State (20-13).

-- After losing by a 41-21 count at FSU, Louisville won a 17-14 decision over Boston College at Papa John’s Stadium this past weekend. However, the Cards failed to take the cash as seven-point home ‘chalk.’ The U of L defense dominated the Eagles, limiting them to 79 yards of total offense and -14 rushing yards. BC mustered just four first downs and got one of its TDs on a blocked punt. Petrino’s bunch was unable to cover the number due to four turnovers. Lamar Jackson threw for 230 yards and ran for a TD, but he was sacked seven times and intercepted twice. U of L’s defense also produced seven sacks with Trevon Young taking the QB down twice. Keith Kelsey had 4.5 tackles for loss, while Sheldon Rankins scored on a fumble return.

-- Jackson has rushed for a team-best 482 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC. The true freshman signal caller has been less successful through the air, completing only 55.4 percent of his passes for 1,135 yards with a 6/7 TD-INT ratio.

-- As a home underdog during Dave Clawson’s tenure, Wake Forest owns a 5-3 spread record. The Deacs have lost outright in three of four home games this season, going 2-2 versus the number.

-- U of L owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a road favorite on Petrino’s watch. The Cards are 1-1 both SU and ATS in a pair of road assignments this year, winning at N.C. State (20-13) and losing at FSU (41-21).

-- The ‘under’ is 4-2-1 overall for U of L, going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 1-1 in in their two previous road assignments. They have seen their games average combined scores of 47.3 points per game.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-3-1 overall for Wake Forest, 2-1-1 in its home outings. The Demon Deacons have seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games. Their games have averaged a combined score of 42.0 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**East Carolina at Connecticut**

-- As of Wednesday, most books had East Carolina (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) installed as a seven-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 51. The Huskies were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

-- UConn (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost back-to-back games and four of its last five both SU and ATS, including a 37-13 setback at Cincinnati last Saturday as a 10.5-point underdog. Bryant Shirreffs completed only 12-of-27 passes for merely 87 yards and was intercepted once. He rushed 17 times for 90 yards. The defense gave up 612 yards.

-- UConn owns wins over Villanova (20-15), Army (22-17) and UFC (40-13). The Huskies have lost at Missouri (9-6), vs. Navy (28-18), at BYU (30-13) vs. USF (28-20) and at Cincy.

-- Ruffin McNeill’s squad has wins vs. Towson (28-20), vs. Va. Tech (35-28), at SMU (49-23) and vs. Tulsa (30-17). ECU has lost at Florida (31-24), at Navy (45-21), at BYU (45-38) and vs. Temple (24-14). The Pirates failed to cover the number as three-point home favorites against the Owls, who overcame a 14-10 deficit by scoring a pair of TDs in the last 3:31 of the fourth quarter last Thursday in Greenville.

-- ECU had more total offense (378-322) than Temple, but it couldn’t overcome a pair of turnovers and a blocked punt. The Pirates’ defense limited Temple RB Jahad Thomas, the AAC’s leading rusher, to a season-low 66 yards on 20 carries. Chris Hairston ran for 65 yards and one TD on just eight carries in the losing effort. Junior QB Blake Kemp threw for 272 yards and one TD, but he was also intercepted once. Isaiah Jones had 10 receptions for 106 yards.

-- Kemp became the starter when Kurt Benkert went down with a season-ending injury in August. Kemp has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 1,823 yards with an 11/7 TD-INT ratio. Juco transfer QB James Summers usually get a few series in each game, in addition to snaps in short-yardage situations. Summers has connected on 32-of-48 throws for 428 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. Summers has also rushed for 383 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC.

-- Hairston has run for a team-best 525 yards and seven TDs while averaging 4.4 YPC. Jones has a team-high 61 catches for 701 yards and three TDs. Hairston has 24 receptions for 159 yards and one TD.

-- ECU WR Daquan Barnes is ‘questionable’ due to a hip injury, while WR Jimmy Williams is ‘out’ with an ankle injury. Williams had 14 receptions for 118 yards and two TDs in the first five games. Starting OT Dontae Livingston is ‘out’ with an undisclosed injury.

-- The UConn offense revolves around Shirreffs, a sophomore transfer from North Carolina State, and sophomore RB Arkeel Newsome, who has rushed for a team-high 408 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Shirreffs has connected on 62.0 percent of his passes for 1,723 yards with a 7/5 TD-INT ratio. Shirreffs has rushed for 342 yards and a pair of scores.

--As a home underdog since Bob Diaco took over in 2014, the Huskies have compiled a 2-6 record both SU and ATS.

--ECU has limped to an abysmal 4-9 spread record in 13 games as a road favorite during McNeill’s tenure.

--The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for ECU, 4-0 in its road assignments. However, the Pirates have seen the ‘under’ cash in back-to-back games. Their games have produced a combined points average of 59.0 points per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-2 overall for the Huskies, 3-1 in their four home outings. Their games have averaged a combined score of 41.1 PPG.

-- ESPNU will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There are two other games on Friday’s slate, including Louisiana Tech at Rice and Wyoming at Utah State. As of Wednesday, most spots had the Bulldogs installed as 12.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The Aggies were favored by 28 over the Cowboys. Rice is 11-9-1 ATS in 21 games as a home underdog during David Bailiff’s tenure.

-- Old Dominion is the nation’s only remaining team that’s winless for our purposes with a 0-7 spread record. Toledo is the only undefeated team ATS with a 6-0-1 mark.

-- North Carolina State QB Jacoby Brissett has a 10/1 TD-INT ratio this season. Since arriving at N.C. St. as a transfer from Florida, Brissett has a 33/6 TD-INT ratio with four rushing scores. He will lead the Wolfpack up against unbeaten Clemson this weekend as a 10-point home underdog. The Tigers had failed to cover in four consecutive road favorite situations until blasting Miami 58-0 in South Florida last weekend.

-- Washington State is just 3-6 ATS in nine games as a home underdog during Mike Leach’s tenure. However, the Cougars are playing their best football since Leach took over going into Saturday’s Pac-12 showdown vs. Stanford. As of Wednesday, the Cardinal was a 12-point ‘chalk’ at most spots. As a road favorite on David Shaw’s watch, Stanford has posted a 12-8 spread record.

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Big Ten Report - Week 9
October 29, 2015


Michigan (5-2) at Minnesota (4-3) - ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Current Line: Wolverines -13.5
Opening Line: Wolverins -13.5

One of the biggest factors in handicapping this game is to try and determine how the players will react to head coach Jerry Kill stepping down earlier this week. He was a VERY well liked head coach, we know that for sure. Do they rally and try and win this game for him or do they come out flat because they are devastated? Tough call and something we’ll try and find out before we decide whether or not to use this game. Both teams are coming off a bye to no advantage there. Both teams rely heavily on their defense to carry them.

Michigan’s stop unit is ranked #1 in the Big Ten (and #1 nationally) in total defense & scoring defense. That’s going to be a huge problem for a Minnesota offense that simply isn’t very good ranking dead last in the Big Ten averaging 20 PPG. It may look like the Gophs “turned the corner” so to speak on offense. After getting shut out by Minnesota in their conference opener they went onto score 41 & 28 points vs Purdue and Nebraska. However, those two defenses aren’t Michigan. The Boilers and Huskers field two of the worst defenses in the league both giving up north of 420 YPG. The Wolverines allow half that total (210 YPG allowed). Three of Minny’s four wins have gone to the wire beating Kent, Ohio, and Colorado St all by a FG. Their only easy win was at Purdue.

How does Michigan bounce back after their debilitating, last second loss to arch rival Michigan State? The extra week off helps but that’s still a situation to be watched closely. The MSU game was the first in which Michigan was outgained this season. Sparty put up 156 more yards in that dramatic win. The Wolverines had outgained their previous 5 opponents by a whopping 1,267 yards or nearly 250 YPG. We know the Wolves are great on defense and their offense is getting better. QB Jake Rudock has gotten much better at protecting the ball. After throwing 5 picks in his first 3 games, he’s thrown just one since. With such a fantastic defense, limiting turnovers is obviously a key. If Michigan takes care of the ball and is efficient (not great) offensively, they will be tough to beat.

This series has not been a “down to the wire” one as of late. The winning margin in this series over the last 7 meetings has been 16, 29, 22, 58, 23, 24, and 14 points. Since 1998, the Gophers have been a home dog of 14 or more just 10 times covering 8.

Rutgers (3-4) at Wisconsin (6-2) - Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET
Current Line: Badgers -20.5
Opening Line: Badgers -19

There’s no arguing the fact the Badgers have some key injury problems right now. Wisconsin starting QB Stave was injured (concussion) very early in the 1st quarter last week and his back up junior Bart Houston (232 yards passing vs Illini) came in and led the Badgers to a 24-13 win at Illinois. Stave was able to practice on Tuesday and looks like he’ll be good to go on Saturday. RB Corey Clement (sports hernia), to our surprise, didn’t even make the trip to Illinois. While he had a decent week of practice, we were told he couldn’t go all out yet. He’d look very good on a few plays making cuts and running near full speed then look very tentative a few plays later. He’s continued to progress this week but still no word for sure on whether he’ll play or not on Saturday.

The Badgers could use him as they rank 88th nationally in rushing and put up just 138 yards on the ground at Illinois. With Clement out, UW is hoping to get Taiwan Deal (ankle) back after missing 3 consecutive games. Deal practiced on Tuesday but was limited. We’re told he may be at least a week away from being close to full strength. On top of all that, #2 WR Wheelwright will be out for an extended period of time with an arm injury. Oh and starting center Dan Voltz was lost for the season last week with a knee injury. Wisconsin is looking forward to getting through the next few weeks (vs Rutgers and at Maryland) so they can take advantage of their bye week on November 14th. They need it.

Rutgers has played only two road games this entire season. This will be their third. They were handled at Penn State 28-3 and recovered from a 25-point 2nd half deficit to beat Indiana 55-52 a few weeks ago. Last week the Knights were destroyed at home by Ohio State 49-7 as the Bucks rolled up 528 yards on 7.5 YPP. Not a huge shock as nobody in the Big Ten allows more YPP on defense than Rutgers (6.7). The Rutgers offense looked good on the opening drive but missed a FG. After that they went 8 straight possessions without crossing Ohio State’s 40-yard line. We need to keep an eye on star WR Carroo here as he is still banged up and wasn’t himself last week vs OSU. Wisconsin won this game in New Brunswick last season 37-0 holding Rutgers to just 139 yards of total offense. Interesting to note that Wisconsin is averaging only 19 PPG in Big Ten play yet laying more than that in this game.

Nebraska (3-5) at Purdue (1-6) - ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET
Current Line: Cornhuskers -7.5
Opening Line: Cornhuskers -10.5

Same old, same old for the Huskers. Another close loss, their 5th of the season. Their 5 losses have come by a total of 13 points. After getting destroyed on consecutive weeks by a combined score of 78-10, Northwestern waltzed into Lincoln and pulled off a 30-28 win. That was despite Nebraska running a whopping 30 more offensive plays (86 plays for NU to 56 for Northwestern). The Huskers are obviously reeling emotionally and physically they aren’t great either with their starting QB Armstrong in a walking boot. He hasn’t practiced this week (as of Wednesday) and his streak of 22 consecutive starts is in jeopardy. If Armstrong can’t go (he’s doubtful), Ryker Fyfe will get the start. Fyfe has played in only one game this year completing 5 of 7 passes in a blowout win over South Alabama.

The one win Boilers are off a bye and they have 3 of their final 5 games here at Ross Ade Stadium. Purdue was hoping to have starting RB Knox (340 yards) back for this one but it looks like he’ll be out for at least another week. PU is 0-3 in Big Ten play and they’ve been outscored 89-41 and outgained by 465 total yards. Their home field advantage has been almost non-existent. In fact, the Boilermakers have now lost 17 of their last 22 games at home. They are just 7-16 ATS their last 23 games in West Lafayette.

These two have met twice since Nebraska joined the conference and they Huskers have rolled up two big wins (35-14 & 44-7). Nebraska has been a money maker as a double digit road favorite covering 12 of their last 17 in that role & 48-37 ATS dating back to 1980.

Maryland (2-5) at Iowa (7-0) - ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET
Current Line: Hawkeyes -17
Opening Line: Hawkeyes -17

Iowa had a bye last week and they seem to be getting healthy because of it. QB CJ Beathard is still banged up but getting closer to 100%. Starting left tackle Boone Myers, RB LeShun Daniels, and WR Tevaun Smith will all be back in the lineup vs Maryland on Saturday. RB Jordan Canzeri will not play due to an injured ankle. Akrum Wadley, who was listed as the 4th string tailback at one point earlier in the season, will start on Saturday after his 204 yard performance at NW heading into the bye. Iowa doesn’t get much pub in the overall Big Ten discussion but they are 7-0 and while a few games have gone down to the wire, it hasn’t been fluky. They’ve outgained every opponent on their schedule with the exception of Wisconsin. The Hawks are +127 YPG this year & +1.6 YPP. The only teams that have them beat in both of those categories are Michigan & Ohio State.

Maryland comes in with the potential of being a bit shaken. Their head coach Randy Edsall (now former) was fired heading into their bye. They then came out of the bye and played a very good game vs Penn State but came up just short losing 31-30. How do they bounce back after that will determine how this game goes. If they come out flat because of the circumstances, this could get ugly. The Terps QB play has been bad all season long. They’ve thrown 20 interceptions already in 7 games which is by far the worst in the Big Ten (11 is next). We’ve mentioned this before in this column but we don’t think it can be overstated. They are dead last in college football in total turnover margin (-13) and dead last in turnovers per game (1.86). Because of those turnovers, Maryland has run fewer offensive plays than anybody in the Big Ten (466 in 7 games).

Maryland did win this match up last year 38-31 as a 4-point home favorite. If you take out their games vs Indiana, Iowa has not been a favorite of 17 or more in Big Ten play since 2008. Add IU back in and the Hawkeyes are just 1-6 ATS as a chalk of at least 17 points vs the Big Ten dating back to 2006.

Illinois (4-3) at Penn State (6-2) - ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET
Current Line: Nittany Lions -4.5
Opening Line: Nittany Lions -6.5

The Illini fell flat off their bye last week losing at home to Wisconsin 24-13. Not only did the Badgers win at Illinois but they did it with their back up QB (Houston) and their 3rd string RB (Ogunbuwale) playing key roles. The Illini come in with a 4-3 record and their 3 losses have all come at the hands of very good teams UNC, Iowa, and Wisconsin who have a combined record of 19-3. It looks like the Illini will again be without starting RB Ferguson leaving freshman Ke’Shawn Vaughn to start for the 3rd straight game. Illinois could use some help offensively as they’ve scored only 47 total points in their 3 Big Ten Games.

Despite their 6-2 record, PSU’s offense also continues to be a problem as they rank 93rd or worse nationally in scoring, rushing offense, passing offense, and total offense. The Nits have had a problem all season converting on 3rd down with just a 27% success rate ranking them 125th nationally (out of 128). That could be even more of a problem in this game as they face an Illinois defense that ranks 6th nationally in 3rd down efficiency allowing their opponents to convert only 27% of the time. They need to keep QB Hackenberg upright which has been a problem.

The Lion offensive line is allowing 3.5 sacks per game and only 4 teams in the nation allow more. That has led to Hackenberg’s back to back below average seasons. This year he is completing only 51% of his passes which is the worst in the Big Ten. Three of the last four meetings between these two have come down to the final minutes of play.

Last year Illinois came out on top 16-14 kicking the game winning FG with just :08 seconds remaining. In 2013 the game was decided in OT with PSU winning 24-17. In 2011 PSU scored the go ahead and game winning TD just over 1:00 minute remaining in a 10-7 win.

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ACC Report - Week 9
October 29, 2015


2015 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-5 0-5 4-3-1 2-6

Clemson 7-0 4-0 4-3 4-3

Duke 6-1 3-0 5-2 1-6

Florida State 6-1 4-1 3-4 2-5

Georgia Tech 3-5 1-4 3-5 5-3

Louisville 3-4 2-2 4-3 2-4-1

Miami (Fla.) 4-3 1-2 4-3 3-4

North Carolina 6-1 3-0 4-3 3-4

North Carolina State 5-2 1-2 5-2 3-4

Pittsburgh 6-1 4-0 4-3 3-3-1

Syracuse 3-4 1-2 5-2 6-1

Virginia 2-5 1-2 3-3-1 4-2-1

Virginia Tech 3-5 1-3 3-5 5-3

Wake Forest 3-5 1-4 3-5 4-3-1


North Carolina at Pittsburgh (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The ACC schedule has a very important game Thursday night in the Steel City with two of the conferences final four remaining unbeaten teams going head-to-head. The past two meetings have been track meets, with UNC winning both games by a combined score of 74-62. The offenses for both sides haven't been as prolific this season, with UNC averaging 25.5 points per game on the road, and Pitt averaging 27.1 points per game overall. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their past six home outings. However, Pitt is 11-4 ATS in the past 15 home games agianst a team with a winning road record. The Tar Heels have covered four of the past five meetings in this series, too.

Louisville at Wake Forest (Fri. - ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Two teams with some struggling offenses will hook up Friday night. As expected, the 'under' is the overwhelming trend when it comes to totals. The under is 4-1 in Louisville's past five overall, 9-3-1 in their past 13 ACC games and 6-1 in their past seven against a team with a losing record. The under is also 8-1 in Louisville's past nine on the road against a team with a losing home record. The under is 11-4-1 in Wake's past 16 home games, and 21-8-2 in their past 31 against a team with a losing record. As far as the spread is concerned, Louisville has covered 19 of their past 27 conference tilts, and 26 of their past 35 road games. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a losing record. Wake has covered five of the past seven at home, but they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing record.

Syracuse at Florida State (ABC, 12:00p.m. ET)

The Orange head south to battle an angry Seminoles team which was stunned on a blocked field goal for touchdown last week at Georgia Tech. After starting out 3-0, the Orange have dropped four in a row. However, they are 3-1 ATS during the impressive span. 'Over' bettors had been winning frequently on Syracuse until last week, the team's first 'under' in seven games this season. FSU's loss was a shock, but their non-cover and 'under' was not. They're just 3-4 ATS in seven games this season, and the under is now 5-1 in their past six games. Syracuse is a three-touchdown underdog, and they have exceled lately against the number. They're 4-0 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record, and they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven overall aainst a team with a winning record. FSU is 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference games, and 6-16 ATS in ther past 22 games overall. They're also 2-6 ATS in their past eight at the Doak.

Virginia Tech at Boston College (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

Boston College has been a tremendous defensive club, and a terrible offensive club, in 2015. With the exception of the Clemson loss Oct. 17, BC has allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their games this season. In addition, the 'under is 6-2 as they have scored 17 or fewer points in each of their past six outings. Their past four games have had a total of 38 or fewer points and the 'under' has still cashed three times. Virginia Tech has dropped four of their five games games, and they're also 1-4 ATS during the span. The 'under' is 3-1 in their past four games, too, so this could be a low-scoring defensive slog. Vegas thinks so since the line sits at 37.5 as of Thursday morning.

Georgia Tech at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)

Georgia Tech looks to build off its stunning win against Florida State last weekend, their first win since Sept. 12. Offense hasn't really been a problem for Georgia Tech this season, as they have 20 or more points in each of their eight games. Defense is the issue, as they have allowed 20 or more points in five of their past six. Virginia lost at UNC last weekend, but they did hang on for the cover. UVA is now 2-1 ATS in their past three games, although they have failed to cover their past three at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. The 'over' had been the play until last weekend, going 4-1 in Virginia's previous five games before an under in Chapel Hill. For Georgia Tech, they have dominated Virginia over the years, going 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, although they're just 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight trips to Charlottesville. The home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

Clemson at North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

Clemson beat Miami so soundly last weekend that the worst loss in school history cost Al Golden his job. The Tigers are on the road again, this time at N.C. State. The Tigers have won all seven of their games, although they're a mediocre 2-3 ATS in their past five. The 'over' has connected in three in a row for the Tigers, too. For N.C. State, they snapped an ugly historical trend with a road win and cover at Wake Forest, a place they hadn't covered in nine tries. The Wolfpack improved to 5-2 ATS on the season, but just 1-2 ATS in three ACC games. Still, N.C. State is 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 17-6-1 ATS in their past 24 at home against a team with a winning road record. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the past 15 meetings in this series, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven for Clemson at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh.

Miami-Florida at Duke (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)

The Hurricanes hit the road for Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham with a new head coach after a humbling 58-0 loss last week at home to Clemson. Larry Scott is the team's interim coach after Al Golden was let go. It gets worse for the Hurricanes, as QB Brad Kaaya (concussion) was injured last week and is doubtful to play, while WR Rashawn Scott (shoulder) is questionable to suit up. If Kaaya cannot go it would be QB Malik Rosier taking the reins of the offense. The last time these teams met in 2013 it was the Blue Devils winning 48-30. Miami is 4-9 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning record, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 road games. Duke is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 against a club with a winning overall record, and 21-7-1 ATS in their past 29. They're also 14-5 ATS in their past 19 ACC battles. Duke is also 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 home games.

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Pac-12 Report - Week 9
October 29, 2015


2015 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-3 2-3 4-4 7-1

Arizona State 4-3 2-2 2-5 2-5

California 5-2 2-2 4-3 2-5

Colorado 4-4 1-3 2-5-1 3-5

Oregon 4-3 2-2 3-4 4-3

Oregon State 2-5 0-4 1-6 3-4

Southern California 4-3 2-2 4-3 4-3

Stanford 6-1 5-0 6-1 4-3

UCLA 5-2 2-2 3-3-1 2-5

Utah 6-1 3-1 4-3 4-3

Washington 3-4 1-3 4-3 1-6

Washington State 5-2 3-1 5-2 4-3


Oregon at Arizona State (Thurs. - ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)

Oregon heads to the desert looking to maintain their dominance in this series. But the Ducks teams putting up those huge numbers was a much different team, so tread lightly when viewing the trends. This Ducks team is barely above .500, and 3-4 ATS this season. For the record, the Ducks are 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight meetings with AZ State, and 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Tempe. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings, but the under has been trending for each of these teams this season. The under is 4-0 in Oregon's past four road games, 6-1 in their past seven on the road against a team with a winning overall mark at home and 5-2 in their past seven in conference. The under is 5-2 in AZ State's past seven, and 4-0 in their next four following a non-cover in the previous game.

Southern California at California (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)

USC hits the road trying to build upon their victory over previously unbeaten Utah, but the Trojans need to figure out how to bring that magic on the road. They're just 6-15 ATS in their past 21 road games, and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 road outings against a team with a winning overall home record. Cal is 6-18 ATS in their past 24 at home, however, and 1-5 ATS in their past six in Berkeley against a team with a winning road mark. USC has dominated this series lately, at least against the number, going 5-0 ATS in their past five trips to Cal, and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The road team is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the past six tilts.



Colorado at UCLA (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Colorado snapped an FBS-worst 14-game conference losing streak with a win at Oregon State last week. Now, can they do it again? They're still just 1-4-1 ATS over their past six games, and 7-17 ATS in their past 24 on the road against a team with a winning home record. UCLA hasn't dominated against the number, although they covered in grand fashion last week with a 40-24 win over California. It was UCLA's first cover (1-2-1 ATS) in four home games this season, however. The under has been the play in UCLA games, going 5-2 through seven games, while the under is 5-3 overall for Colorado this season, including 3-1 in four games on the road.

Oregon State at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 7:00 p.m.)

Oregon State has had a difficult season, and they bottomed out with a loss at home to Colorado last week. Utah tasted defeat for the first time this season at USC a week ago, although sharps weren't exactly shocked. Oregon State is just 3-13 ATS over the past 16 games, and 1-10 ATS in their past 11 conference tilts. They're also 0-5 ATS in thier past five against teams with a winning record and 0-5 ATS in their past five on the road. Utah misfired last week against the number, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a losing record. However, following a non-cover Utah has been very good when angry, going 5-1 ATS in the following week. The total trend appears to point to the under, which is 7-3 in Oregon State's past 10 overall, and 5-2 in their past seven in conference. The under is 4-1 in Utah's past five home games, although the over is 4-1 in their past five games overall.

Stanford at Washington State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)

Stanford faces a difficult road test when they head to the Palouse to face a hot Washington State team. The Cardinal have been great against the number lately, however, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their past six against winning teams and 4-1 ATS in their past five on the road. Washington State was tripped up in its opener against FCS Portland State, and it looked like it could be a long season. However, they have posted a 5-1 SU/ATS mark sinx that point with three consecutive overs. The latter is due to their offense, which we have come to expect over the years, averaging 47.3 points per game while allowing 31 or more in four straight, and five of the past six. Stanford is 8-1 ATS in their past nine trips to Pullman, and the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. The road team has covered five of the past six. The under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings at Washington State, and has gone 9-3-1 in the previous 13 meetings.

Arizona at Washington (FOX Sports 1, 11:00 p.m.)

The trend in this series favors the home team and the favorite, so that bodes well for a Washington team favored by four to five points depending on your shop. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five. The Wildcats are also just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 against a team with a losing record, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a losing home mark. Washington is 0-5 ATS in their past five at home against a team with a winning road record. The total trends are conflicting in this one, too. The over is 8-1 in Arizona's past nine games, and 4-1 in their past five conference tilts, while the under is a dominant 18-5 in Washington's past 23, and a perfect 7-0 in their past seven conference battles. The under is 20-6 in their past 26 at home, too. In this series, the over is 8-2 in the past 10 in Seattle and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall.

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Rhule leads Temple to biggest game
October 29, 2015

PHILADELPHIA (AP) Temple coach Matt Rhule was only 11 the first time he left a stadium drenched in beer and responsible for an amazin' win.

Long before Rhule drew up X's and O's, he called the shots in favor of his beloved New York Mets.

World Series. 1986. Game 6. With the Mets down to their last out and the tying run on third, Rhule ordered up one more curse on the Boston Red Sox.

''How about a wild pitch!'' he shouted from the concourse.

Sure enough, Bob Stanley's next pitch scooted toward the backstop and sent Kevin Mitchell scurrying home with the tying run.

''The fans picked me up and they're throwing beer all over me,'' Rhule said, laughing. ''It was my first drink! And I ended up getting a chance to go to Game 7.''

The Mets won the World Series and 29 years later they're back in it, though Rhule won't make any side trips this weekend to Citi Field.

He's kind of busy the night of Game 4.

The Temple Owls program that Rhule helped resurrect from the brink of extinction - first as an assistant, now in his third season as head coach - is perched as the top birds on the Philadelphia football scene.

No. 21 Temple is ranked for the first time since 1979 and 7-0 for the first time in history headed into Saturday's nationally televised primetime game against No. 9 Notre Dame (6-1).

Nearly 70,000 fans are expected at Lincoln Financial Field, home of the NFL's Eagles. Temple lined up 50 buses leaving at 4:45 a.m. from campus to shuttle students to Independence Hall for ESPN's ''GameDay'' program.

Win or lose, the Owls are ready for their close-up.

''We embrace the moment. We don't pretend it's not here,'' Rhule said. ''We don't pretend `GameDay's' not coming. We don't pretend we're not playing Notre Dame. All those things are great. But they don't help us play better.''

The Owls hardly need any help playing better as they ready for the biggest game - and there's not even a close second - in the program's 85-year history.

Take a walk in downtown Philadelphia and city street vendors hawk football gear, bellowing, ''We have Temple Owl shirts! Best team in town!''

Rhule has led the charge, as at ease at local watering holes as he is challenging his players in gassers at practice. The 40-year-old former Penn State linebacker under Joe Paterno has become one of the hottest coaching prospects in the game.

''This is too fun of a time,'' he said.

Rhule broke down the season over lunch at his favorite spot, the South Philadelphia Tap Room, with a ''Rocky'' figurine peering over his shoulder from atop a shelf behind a bar. With ''Creed'' opening next month, Sylvester Stallone as Philadelphia's ultimate underdog character seems a natural fit as the ''GameDay'' celebrity picker.

Rhule has his own ideas: former Temple basketball coach John Chaney, musicians Hall and Oates or comedian Kevin Hart.

Philly guys.

Rhule considers himself one these days after nine years of city life.

He's far removed from his days bouncing around as an assistant at Buffalo, UCLA and Western Carolina and cold-calling former Temple coach Al Golden, pitching himself for a job.

After a 30-minute talk, he didn't hear from Golden for some time, until he called with one question.

''Can you be here Monday?'' Rhule said. ''He never asked me a football question.''

The Owls went 1-11 in 2006 playing as an independent - they had been booted from the Big East - and lost 62-0 in consecutive games. But then came four wins, then five and finally 9-4 in 2009, earning the Owls their first bowl game since 1979.

Rhule interviewed for the job in 2010 when Golden left for Miami but was passed over for Steve Addazio. Rhule left in 2012 and joined the New York Giants as assistant offensive line coach.

''My wife was just bawling,'' Rhule said. ''The players had to come up and console her. But it wasn't just the NFL. It was the Giants. I wanted to do it forever.''

When Addazio left for Boston College, Rhule got his shot. He went 2-10 in 2013 and felt the sting of missing out on the postseason last season with a bowl-eligible mark of 6-6.

Rhule has fans in high places, texting with Eagles coach Chip Kelly. Former Eagles coach Andy Reid, Giants coach Tom Coughlin and Jets coach Todd Bowles are all Temple supporters. Already linked to potential openings at Maryland and Virginia Tech, Rhule laughs at rumors he could be up for the same jobs as Kelly.

''I'd go with Chip!'' he said, laughing.

Temple - which once voted to consider dropping football and is now considering building an on-campus stadium - is faced with the idea of a power conference trying to pluck its coach.

''Why would I be looking anywhere else,'' he said. ''Now if something came along ... but that doesn't mean I'm looking for a job. It doesn't mean I'm going to leave. This is a special place to me.''

His concern this week is blocking out the hype - even from inside Temple's practice facility.

Much like he tagged along with his dad to baseball games at 11 years old, Rhule has a son the same age who loves hanging around the team.

''He shows up at practice and is like, `We're raaanked. We're raaanked,''' Rhule said in a sing-song voice. ''I was like, bro, I'm going to fire you.''

Just wait to see what happens if they beat the Irish.

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FSU secondary looks to contain 'Cuse QB
October 29, 2015

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) Florida State's secondary was considered to be the strength of the defense coming into the season. This month, the banged-up unit has been a glaring weakness.

Going into Saturday's game against Syracuse, the 17th-ranked Seminoles have allowed an average of 248 passing yards in four games in October, which is worst in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Now comes a matchup Saturday with the ACC's most efficient passer. Syracuse's Eric Dungey's 159.8 passer efficiency rating leads the conference and is ninth nationally.

''He can run the ball, he can throw it, makes all the plays,'' Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher said. ''I think he likes contact and feeds off of it.''

Florida State (6-1, 4-1 ACC) did well against the pass early in the season but the past three weeks has seen the unit tested due to injuries.

Miami's Brad Kaaya threw for 405 yards on Oct. 10, which is the second-highest passing yardage total in the ACC this season. The following week Louisville's Lamar Jackson, who came in completing only 53.6 percent of his passes, had his first 300-yard game (307).

Last week, Georgia Tech's Justin Thomas completed just four passes but one was for 36 yards to Brad Stewart during the fourth quarter on a drive that set up a tying field goal. The Yellow Jackets, who don't pass much due to their triple option offense, eventually won 22-16 on a blocked field goal to deal the Seminoles their first regular-season loss since 2012.

The injuries have just continued to mount for the Seminoles' secondary.

- Safety Nate Andrews suffered a knee injury against Wake Forest on Oct. 3. He has played the past three games but has been limited.

- Nickel cornerback Trey Marshall suffered a bicep injury against Louisville that has him out for the remainder of the regular season.

- Tyler Hunter struggled against Louisville and did not play last week against Georgia Tech due to a concussion. That has left Fisher to rely on walk-on senior Javien Elliott along with freshmen Tarvarus McFadden and Marcus Lewis more than anticipated.

One bright spot in the secondary has been the play of corners Jalen Ramsey and Marquez White, who have continued to make plays. But opponents have been feeding off mismatches in nickel coverages and attacking whoever has been tasked with defending the slot receiver.

Fisher said the biggest thing with the younger players is learning not to play hesitant.

''You can't sit and worry about every little thing. You have got to play fast, you have to play free and you have to react to things,'' Fisher said. ''Everything's not perfect but the adjustments and tackling in space are coming. All freshmen are going to make a few mistakes here and there.''

Hunter could be back this week along with linebacker Terrance Smith, who has missed the past three games with a high ankle sprain.

Syracuse (3-4, 1-2 ACC) runs a spread option to take advantage of Dungey's running abilities but its receivers have started to develop. Sophomore Steve Ishmael has 11 catches the past two games and has a touchdown the last three weeks. Junior Brisly Estime is averaging 17.8 yards per catch.

''Their corners are going to cause some issues,'' Syracuse offensive coordinator Tim Lester said. ''They're not all over the field but you have to be timely with your calls and just try to put them on their heels a little bit. But you have to earn it.''