NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 15 - Monday, October 19)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, October 15 - Monday, October 19

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Luck's status has Deflate-gate rematch line in limbo

Books are holding off on posting a line for this week's Colts-Patriots game until Andrew Luck's status is determined.

Based on the 2014 NFL season, it appeared that Week 6 of the 2015 season would feature a showdown between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts. It would be a rematch of the AFC Championship Game – aka Deflategate.

New England (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) still looks like the team that rolled to a 45-7 home win laying 7 points in that game. The Pats then went on to beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. On Sunday at undermanned Dallas, Tom Brady & Co. rumbled to a 30-6 victory as an 8-point favorite.

Indianapolis (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) has managed to post three consecutive wins, but has struggled against inferior competition without Andrew Luck (shoulder) under center the past two weeks. Playing the Thursday night game in Week 5, the Colts rode backup QB Matt Hasselbeck and running back Frank Gore to a 27-20 win at Houston as a 5-point underdog.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said he’ll hold off on posting a line until Luck’s status is determined.

“It appears the Colts organization is going to be understandably cautious with Luck,” Lester said. “That said, we are going to hold off hanging a line until his status is a bit more definitive. If Luck is out, which we anticipate, the Patriots will be at least touchdown chalk, and at that number, the public will be backing them again.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said without Luck, Indy will be another footnote for New England.

“The Pats have been mowing down opponents, and without Andrew Luck, the Colts may just become additional blades of grass,” Avello said.

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)

Arizona could easily be among the ranks of the unbeaten this year, with its lone loss a 24-22 upset as a 7-point home chalk to St. Louis in Week 4. But the Cardinals (4-1 SU and ATS) bounced back in a big way Sunday at Detroit, hammering the Lions 42-17 as a 4-point road fave.

Pittsburgh is still trying to bide its time while QB Ben Roethlisberger recovers from a left knee injury. The Steelers (2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) blew a great chance to beat Baltimore in Week 4, tumbling 23-20 in overtime as a 3-point pup with Michael Vick at quarterback. The Steelers will also have a shorter week, playing in the Monday nighter tonight at San Diego.

“I really do believe that the Cardinals are a quality team and have all the pieces it takes to win it all,” Avello said. “But the five teams they've faced have a total of six wins among them. This will be a stiffer test.”

With Pittsburgh in action tonight, the line isn’t yet posted.

“If the Steelers don’t suffer any major injuries on Monday night, then we’ll open the Cardinals as short road chalk,” Lester said. “This will be the second good test for the Cardinals, and the first was their only defeat (a 24-22 home loss to St. Louis). Michael Vick has enough talent around him to be serviceable and keep games against quality opponents competitive.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Carolina (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) puts its perfect record on the line with a coast-to-coast road trip for which the Panthers are well-rested. Carolina had its bye in Week 5, after bouncing Tampa Bay 37-23 giving 3 points on the road in Week 4.

Seattle (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) is almost assuredly fuming after blowing a 24-7 lead Sunday by giving up 17 points to Cincinnati in the fourth quarter, then losing 27-24 in overtime to push as a 3-point road ‘dog. Allowing such a rally certainly wasn’t becoming of the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks, but last year, they were 3-3 SU and ATS through six weeks, then plowed through the rest of the season to return to the Super Bowl.

“It will be interesting to see how the betting community reacts to this game,” Lester said. “The Panthers are coming off a bye, but this is the first good team they’ve seen all year. It’s too early to label this a must-win situation for the Seahawks, but they really do need a win here at home.

“This spread might fluctuate a half point either way, but I expect we will have good two-way action for this one.”

Avello isn’t sold on the Panthers, but also has reservations about Seattle.

“The Panthers are playing with confidence, but they've also played a weak schedule, the weakest of any team thus far,” Avello said. “The last time these two met was in last season's divisional playoff round, where the Seahawks were an 11-point home favorite (in a 31-17 win). Don't expect to see anything close to that number, as the ‘Hawks aren't on par with last year's squad, and the Panthers are a much closer comparison to where they were last season.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

With Baltimore unraveling and Pittsburgh trying to hang in without Ben Roethlisberger, Cincinnati has assumed control in the AFC North. The Bengals (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS), 3-point home faves against Seattle on Sunday, rallied from a 24-7 fourth-quarter deficit to win 27-24 in overtime.
Buffalo (3-2 SU and ATS) has looked perhaps a little better than expected under new coach Rex Ryan. On Sunday, the Bills squeaked out a 14-13 win catching 1 point at Tennessee.
“The Bengals are 5-0, and the perception is they are ready to take on all challengers,” Avello said. “I believe they are going to get that challenge here in a game I opened Buffalo -1.5. The Bengals will have backing at the betting windows, as they are 5-0 against the number, if you were able to lay the -2.5 vs Seattle.”

Lester opened the game at pick ‘em and quickly moved Cincy to -1.

“We’ll see if there is any kind of letdown for Cincinnati with a tough trip to Orchard Park on deck,” Lester said. “That said, the early money has already come in on the Bengals. If the banged-up Bills don’t get some of their offensive talent back, I expect we will keep shading toward the visitor as the public gamblers get involved.”

[Udog]

Best betting value takes timing for these NFL Week 6 odds

Experts suggests waiting on the Falcons-Saints game until the line settles down

Game to bet on now

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)

Call this one the Revenge Bowl. In New England, everyone is still uber-ticked at the Colts for telling the teacher about alleged underinflated footballs and the Patriots are now primed to get even during recess. New England is 4-0, kicking butt and taking names, while Indianapolis has quarterback issues. Add in the fact that the Patriots treat the Colts like the hired help, and it’s surprising that the 7.5 number isn’t higher.

Scorched-earth was the name of the game in 2007 in the wake of SpyGate, and so it will be eight years later. Expect a few Gronk end zone spikes, Brady fired up on the sidelines and a certain steely-eyed hoodie on the sidelines sneaking an occasional look at the Colt owners box with each score.


Game to wait on

Atlanta at New Orleans (+3)

The Falcons are one of four undefeated teams, but are there cracks in the foundation? A mediocre Washington team had Atlanta by the scruff of the neck several times on Sunday before losing on a overtime pick-6, and now there are a few questions about the Falcons’ staying power – at least when wide out Julio Jones is not at 100 percent.

Heavy money is coming in on Atlanta in this one and could move the line, even though books will certainly be reluctant to give the Saints another half-point at home. Might be a good idea to hold off on this one until the line settles and Atlanta gets a better idea of how Jones’s ailing right hamstring feels closer to gametime.


Total to watch

Carolina at Seattle (O/U: 42)

The offense appears to be straightened out in Carolina, where the Panthers have scored progressively more points (20, 24, 27, 37) in each game. But over players need to be careful here, because the Panthers have not moved the ball on anyone of note (Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 5-15).

Few teams are able to run the ball against Seattle’s No. 5-ranked defense, and if the Seahawks make the Panther offense one-dimensional, eclipsing 37 points on the road will be a mere pipedream.

[Udog]

Don't dare let these three spot bet opportunities pass you by

Washington State is coming off a massive upset over Oregon and giving eight points to visiting Oregon State Saturday.

Letdown spot

The Mike Leach experiment at Washington State produced its finest results last weekend when the Cougars upset Oregon 45-38 in double overtime as 15.5-point road underdogs in Eugene. Washington State has long been the Pac-12’s favorite punching bag, but struck back with a monster win over the Ducks, using two crazy touchdowns including a bizarre fumble recovery on the goal line to get the 'W'. The Cougars' social media jockeys trolled the Ducks following the win with a clever "Oregon Trail" meme.

That sets Wazzu up for perhaps the biggest letdown spot of the college football season. Washington State is an 8-point home favorite against Oregon State Saturday afternoon. The Beavers are just 2-3 on the year but have covered in seven straight trips to Pullman and are 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 meetings overall.

Lookahead spot

The New York Jets are coming off a bye week following their victory against Miami in the NFL’s UK game in London. It’s very likely the Jets spent as much time preparing for next week’s opponent – the New England Patriots – as they did for this week’s foe, the Washington Redskins.

New York, at 3-1 SU and ATS, has exceed expectations through four games and has a chance to upend the Pats, who are coming off a tough Sunday night matchup with Indianapolis. That will be the Jets’ first game against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady without Rex Ryan on the sideline in some time. New York, however, is giving six points in Week 6 to a rising Washington squad that has covered in three of its last four outings.

Schedule spot

The San Jose Sharks have a busy travel schedule this week, kicking off Tuesday in the nation’s capitals. San Jose, which opened the season 2-0, takes on Washington then plays a challenging three games in four nights away from home to wrap the week.

Following a showdown with the Capitals, the Sharks hit the ice in New Jersey Friday, travel to Brooklyn to play the Islanders Saturday, rest Sunday, and finish this frantic East Coast trip against the Rangers on Monday. Heading into Tuesday’s game, San Jose was just 2-5 in its last seven versus Metropolitan foes.

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

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ATLANTA (5 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 4) - 10/15/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 18

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DENVER (5 - 0) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (5 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (1 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 4) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (2 - 3) at DETROIT (0 - 5) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 1) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (4 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 63-36 ATS (+23.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 3) at TENNESSEE (1 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 0) at SEATTLE (2 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 75-42 ATS (+28.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-57 ATS (-33.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) at GREEN BAY (5 - 0) - 10/18/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (1 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) - 10/18/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 217-176 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 217-176 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 169-128 ATS (+28.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-75 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 19

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NY GIANTS (3 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) - 10/19/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thursday - Oct, 15

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:25 ET
Atlanta: 9-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday
New Orleans: 27-50 ATS in home games versus division opponents


Sunday - Oct, 18

Denver at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Denver: 20-9 ATS in games played on a grass field
Cleveland: 53-30 UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 5-19 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Buffalo: 9-2 ATS as an underdog

Kansas City at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Minnesota: 2-10 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 45-24 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3
Jacksonville: 1-9 ATS at home after being outrushed by 100+ yards last game

Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 0-9 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3
Detroit: 16-5 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse

Washington at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Washington: 39-23 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7
New York: 6-16 ATS against NFC East division opponents

Arizona at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 13-26 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Pittsburgh: 20-7 ATS at home after gaining 6.5 or + yards/play in previous game

Miami at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Miami: 15-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
Tennessee: 3-11 ATS against conference opponents

Carolina at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 23-6 UNDER off a road win against a division rival
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

San Diego at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Baltimore at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Baltimore: 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
San Francisco: 7-0 OVER after allowing 500 or more total yds in previous game

New England at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET
New England: 21-10 ATS in games played on turf
Indianapolis: 0-6 ATS against AFC East division opponents


Monday - Oct, 19

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
New York: 21-8 ATS in road games after a win by 6 or less points
Philadelphia: 31-16 UNDER after scoring 35 points or more last game

[Udog]

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 15

8:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home


Sunday, October 18

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. MINNESOTA
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CLEVELAND
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PITTSBURGH
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY JETS
Washington is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

4:05 PM
CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. GREEN BAY
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games at home

4:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing New England


Monday, October 19

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6


Atlanta @ New Orleans

Game 103-104
October 15, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
132.913
New Orleans
134.009
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3 1/2); Over




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's game
Falcons (5-0) @ Saints (1-4)-- Atlanta is 5-0 but trailed in 4th quarter in four of five games; they're 5-13 in last 18 games with New Orleans, losing nine of last 11 visits here. Saints are -5 in turnovers, giving up 28.6 ppg (over 3-2)- they're giving up 135.8 rushing yards/game. Over last 8+ years, NO is 1-2 as home dog; they're 8-5 vs spread in last 13 home divisional games. Three of five Falcon wins are by 4 or less points or in OT; since '10, they're 12-8-1 as road favorite, 1-0 this year. Saints have yet to lead at half (0-4-1); team that won second half won all five of their games. Atlanta has three defensive TDs in last two games; they're 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 NFC South road games. Both NO home games stayed under.

[Udog]

NFL

Wednesday, October 14


Falcons' WR Julio Jones expected to play Thursday night

Atlanta Falcons star wide receiver Julio Jones is expected to suit up Thursday night in New Orleans when the Falcons face the Saints, despite dealing with a hamstring injury.

It should be noted that the team will monitor Jones' snaps and could be on a so called 'pitch count'. But with the star wideout in the lineup, the Falcons have moved to 3.5-point road favorites.


Cowboys to go with Cassel at QB after bye

The Dallas Cowboys will start Matt Cassel at quarterback in Week 7 against the New York Giants following their bye week, after dropping their third straight game this weekend.

The team is winless since stater Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone and he will miss at least four more games, before he is eligible to come off the I-R.

Cassel replaces Brandon Weeden, who went 0-3 straight up and against the spread as the starter.


Bills' QB Taylor says he plans to play Sunday

When Buffalo Bills starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor was asked Wednesday if would play Sunday's game against Cincinnati he responded, "That's the plan."

It had been reported that Taylor could miss several weeks due to an MCL sprain suffered on a horse collar tackle in the forth quarter of last Sunday's 14-13 win over Tennessee.

The Bills are currently 3.5-point home dogs, but Taylor added it would be the coach's final decision as to whether or not he would suit up.


Colts re-sign RB Bradshaw

Running back Ahmad Bradshaw re-signed with the Indianapolis Colts on Wednesday, the team announced.

The Colts were a little short at running back and the signing of Bradshaw gives then veteran experience behind starter Frank Gore.

Bradshaw rushed for 725 yards and eight touchdowns in 10 games for the Colts in 2014 before sustaining a season-ending broken left leg in a game against the New England Patriots in November.

Last year, he also served a one-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, following his no-contest plea to a marijuana charge.

Bradshaw became a free agent in March after playing for the Colts on one-year contracts the last two seasons.


Lions LB Levy to undergo hip surgery

Detroit Lions linebacker DeAndre Levy will undergo surgery on his injured hip, head coach Jim Caldwell announced Wednesday.

Caldwell said no decision has been made regarding whether or not Levy will be placed on the injured reserve list. Levy will out of the lineup indefinitely.

Levy missed the first four games of the season because of the hip problem before returning to the lineup against the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. He reaggravated the injury in the 42-17 loss, leaving the game in the first half and did not return. He did not record any tackles.

The 28-year-old Levy was a second-team All-Pro selection in 2014 after recording 151 tackles, 2.5 sacks and one interception. Levy signed a five-year extension with the Lions before the start of the season.


Patriots LT Solder (biceps) out for season

New England Patriots starting left tackle Nate Solder will miss the remainder of the season with a torn right biceps that will require surgery, according to reports Wednesday.

Solder was injured late in the second quarter of Sunday's 30-6 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.

Solder left the field on his own after Cowboys defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford registered an 8-yard sack of quarterback Tom Brady. Solder's right arm appeared to be extended in a compromising position as Crawford rushed past him on the play.

Solder has started every game for the Patriots over the last two seasons and has only missed one game since he joined the Patriots as a first-round draft choice in 2011.

Five-year veteran Marcus Cannon is the Patriots' top backup, and replaced Solder on Sunday.


Bills WR Watkins (calf) expects to face Bengals

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who has missed the last two games because of a calf injury, said on Wednesday that he expects to play this week when the Buffalo Bills face the Cincinnati Bengals.

Watkins practiced on Wednesday and said he plans to be in the lineup.

"I understand the presence of me on the field," Watkins told the Buffalo News. "I feel like the offense has been basic without me out there. ... Defenses have been having their way with just stacking the box with the run game. … I think I'm going to open a lot of things up.

" ... If (the calf) pops, it pops."

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor of the Bills is dealing with a knee injury and might not play, but Watkins said he expects backup quarterback EJ Manuel to have "a monster game" against the Bengals.


Broncos might be without OLB Ware (back)

Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware did not practice with the Denver Broncos on Wednesday and there is a growing likelihood that he will not play on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.

Ware left last Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders because of back spasms.

"We've got to get DeMarcus well," coach Gary Kubiak said. "Obviously, we missed him through the course of (Sunday), but our depth showed up."

Shane Ray and Shaq Barrett shared Ware's spot in the second half and each recorded a sack while combining for five tackles and two quarterback hits.

Fellow outside linebacker Von Miller said Tuesday that Ware might be out "a couple weeks."


Packers the team to beat heading into Week 6

The Green Bay Packers are the Super Bowl 50 favorites at 5/2 after thanks to a 24-10 win over St. Louis Rams this Sunday and improving their record to 5-0.

According to the Westgate LV Superbook, the Packers have been the favorites to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy for the last several weeks and have been followed closely by the also undefeated New England Patriots at 7/2.

The Denver Broncos have the next best odds, followed by the trio of the Cincinnati Bengals, the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks all at 10/1.


Another week, another hit for Seahawks' SB 50 odds

The Seattle Seahawks' Super Bowl 50 odds have fallen once again and the defending NFC champs now sit at 10/1 to win it all.

Since opening the season as the 9-2 favorites to win Super Bowl 50, according to the Westgate LV Superbook, not much has gone right for the Seaahawks, who sit at 2-3 after giving up another fourth quarter lead in their 27-24 overtime loss to Cincinnati in Week 5.

The Seahawks host 4-0 Carolina in Week 6 and are currently favored by 7-points.

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, October 15

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Falcons at Saints
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The Falcons will try to make it a perfect 6-0 when they visit their division rivals, the Saints on Thursday night.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3, 51)

Having mastered the art of the comeback, the undefeated Atlanta Falcons look to become the first team in the NFL to six wins when they visit the struggling New Orleans Saints on Thursday night in an NFC South matchup. Atlanta made history last week by becoming the first team to start 5-0 when trailing in the fourth quarter in four of those victories.

“Being 5-0 is just a real clear demonstration of how hard the guys all want to play for one another,” Falcons first-year coach Dan Quinn said. "I think it shows a lot of the character and the toughness of the men in the room." Atlanta escaped with a 25-19 win over Washington last week when cornerback Robert Alford returned an interception for a touchdown in overtime. The Saints registered a dramatic overtime victory of their own at home against Dallas on Oct. 4. The momentum was short-lived, however, as New Orleans was overwhelmed in a 39-17 loss at Philadelphia last week.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 3-point road favorites and briefly moved up to -3.5, but have since moved back to the opening number and remained there ever since. The total hasn't moved off the opening number of 51.

INJURY REPORT:

Atlanta - G M. Person (questionable Thursday, ankle), LB J. Durant (questionable Thursday, elbow), WR L. Hankerson (questionable Thursday, ribs), WR D. Hester (early December, toe).

Saints - G J. Evans (probable Thursday, knee), P T. Morstead (questionable Thursday, leg), T T. Armstead (questionable Thursday, knee), DE B. Richardson (questionable Thursay, hip), WR M. Colston (out Thursday, shoulder).

POWER RANKINGS: Falcons(-4) - Saints(+4) + home field(-3) = Saints +3

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Two years ago it was the 5-0 Saints taking on the 1-4 Falcons. The roles have reversed with Atlanta looking to start 6-0 for the second time in four years while New Orleans hopes to improve on a recent 1-6 SU and ATS slide at home. Given the fact that the Falcons are 6-0 ATS on Thursdays in NFC South division games, look for the Saints’ suffering ways to continue tonight."

ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-0, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Devonta Freeman moved into the starting lineup when rookie running back Tevin Coleman suffered a rib injury in Week 2 and he hasn't looked back, becoming the first player in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least seven touchdowns in his first three career starts. After opening the season with three monster games and scoring four touchdowns, Falcons wideout Julio Jones has been kept in check over the past two games with only nine catches for 105 yards. Quarterback Matt Ryan looks to rebound from his worst game after throwing for 254 yards with two interceptions and a fumble.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (1-4, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): New Orleans allowed 29 unanswered points in last week's rout at Philadelphia and the league's worst defense (409.0 yards per game) was shredded for 34 first downs and 519 total yards. Quarterback Drew Brees, who sat out Week 3 while dealing with a bruised rotator cuff, threw for a pair of touchdowns and notched his third 300-yard game, but he was picked off once, lost a pair of fumbles and sacked five times. Starting running back Mark Ingram has yet to exceed 77 yards rushing, but wide receiver Willie Snead continues to be a pleasant surprise after hauling in six catches for 141 yards.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the lsat five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New Orleans.

CONSENSUS: The public is strongly behind undefeated Atlanta with 66.88 percent of wagers currently backing the Falcons.

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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, October 15


Falcons, Under trending in meetings with Saints

The Atlanta Falcons will visit the New Orleans as a pair of NFC South rivals renew acquaintances on Thursday Night Football and there are a couple of betting trends to note prior to kickoff.

The Falcons have have covered the spread in four of the previous five meetings with the Saints and have three of those straight up. Furthermore, the Under has cashed in four of the previous five meetings.

At present, books are offering the Falcons as 3.5-point road favorites and the total at 51.


Raiders DE Tuck out for season

Oakland Raiders defensive end Justin Tuck is expected to undergo season-ending surgery for a torn pectoral muscle, according to published reports.

Tuck will be placed on injured reserve due to the injury, which occurred in Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos.

Tuck underwent an MRI exam on Wednesday and Oakland coach Jack Del Rio described the results as "not good."

The 32-year-old Tuck is in his second season with the Raiders after spending his first nine NFL campaigns with the New York Giants.


Texans WR Shorts expected to play vs. old team

HOUSTON -- Veteran starting wide receiver Cecil Shorts is regarded as ahead of schedule after dislocating his left shoulder on the final play of a loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Out of a sling and not requiring surgery, Shorts is considered to have a better chance to return Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, his old team, than fellow injured wide receiver Nate Washington. Washington has a hamstring injury. Shorts practiced Wednesday on a limited basis.

"I feel good, I'm coming along," Shorts said. "I'm way ahead of schedule. We'll see how things go. We've got to be smart about it."

Shorts signed a two-year, $6 million contract with the Texans this offseason that included a $1 million signing bonus with $2.5 million guaranteed. He has 22 catches for 236 yards and one touchdown in four games played.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6

As bad as the Niners have been this season, Colin Kaepernick & Co. have one strength and it's something they can exploit against the Ravens defense Sunday.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)

Bears’ YAC defense vs. Lions’ dependency on YAC

The Detroit Lions don’t have much to hang their hat on when it comes to their sputtering offense. They do, however, rank among the top teams in picking up extra yardage after the catch – also known as YAC. Heading into Week 6, the Lions have totaled 793 yards after the catch (third most in the NFL), averaging 5.39 in additional gains following a reception. The biggest culprits for Detroit’s YAC production are RB Theo Riddick and WR Golden Tate, but they also have playmakers in Calvin Johnson and butter-fingered rookie RB Ameer Abdullah.

Chicago has been very good against the pass so far, allowing just 185.8 yards through the air per game – third lowest in the league. And keeping those receiving yards down is the Bears’ ability to get to the receiver and snuff them out before they can added any additional damage. Chicago has given up a total of 430 YAC through four games, for an average of just 86 yards after the catch per outing. If the Bears can stop Detroit from tacking on any extra yardage, the 3-point spread could be tough to topple for a Lions offense scoring less than 17 points per game.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Bears D/ST, Fade – RB Theo Riddick, WR Golden Tate

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4, 42.5)

Broncos’ pass rush vs. Browns’ big passing plays

Josh McCown ranks well ahead of Peyton Manning in the DFS markets, racking up a stunning average of 20.3 points per week compared to Manning’s paltry average of 13.19. Take a couple seconds to let that one sink in. However, come Sunday, the Broncos defense may not give McCown that much time to get the ball off. Denver has a league-leading 22 sacks on the season along with 29 defensive hurries, giving opposing QBs very little time to find their threats down field. That ability to put passers on their heels has also equated to seven interceptions – two of which have gone back to the house for six points.

The Browns depend on the big play to move the chains in recent weeks, totaling 40 passes of 15 yards or more over the past four contests – a league high. Cleveland has struck for 25 yards or more on 13 plays this season, targeting playmakers in WR Travis Benjamin and TE Gary Barnidge. But with Denver’s pass rushers closing in quick, McCown may not have enough time to allow those big plays to develop this Sunday. Cleveland has given up 18 sacks already this season, including four to the Ravens last week. Those waiting for the other shoe to drop on McCown may hear a mighty thud by the time this game is over.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy – Broncos D/ST, Fade – QB Josh McCown

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 44)

Ravens’ third-down defense vs. Niners’ third-down offense

The 49ers have given Bay Area football fans very little to cheer about in 2015, and it’s been like that since Jim Harbaugh jumped ship to raise Michigan football from the dead. The one thing San Francisco has been able to do – and do well – is move the chains on third down. Heading into Week 6, the Niners have converted on more than 41 percent of their third down tries. Considering how bad this offense has been, that’s a pretty tasty number right there. Last week, against the Giants on Sunday Night Football, San Fran converted on eight of its 14 third downs and keep the offense on the field long enough to cover the spread. The crazy legs of Colin Kaepernick and veteran WR Anquan Boldin (83 yards on 7 catches on third down/11.9 YPC) have been the two biggest cogs on third down for the 49ers.

Baltimore is already in a tough spot for this game, having to cross the country for its fourth road trip in six weeks. The Ravens haven’t been able to land a knockout punch with opponents on the ropes, allowing teams to convert on 49.37 percent of their third down attempts – second worst in the NFL just below Jacksonville. That’s allowed teams to dominate the time of possession battle against Baltimore, which has watched opponents eat up an average of 31:17 worth of clock. The Ravens were bullied on third down versus Cleveland, with the Browns going 12 for 19 in those situations.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy – QB Colin Kaepernick, WR Anquan Boldin, Fade – Baltimore D/ST

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 54.5)

Patriots’ explosive first halves vs. Colts’ slow starts

The defending Super Bowl champs don’t ease their toe into the pool each Sunday. They do a full-on cannonball, soaking the opposing team in a tidal wave of points. New England is averaging just under a touchdown in the first quarter and 11 points in the second quarter for an average of 17.8 first-half points per game – second most in the NFL. On top of that, the Patriots defense has locked down opponents to only 5.5 points through the first 30 minutes of football. That difference forces opponents to play outside of their game plan and pick up the pace on offense in order to catch up – playing right into the hands of Darth Belichick.

The Colts have been sleepy eyed in the opening frames, putting up just 7.4 points per first half on the season. With QB Andrew Luck sidelined with a shoulder injury, Indianapolis actually had its two most productive first halves under backup Matt Hasselbeck, scoring 13 and 10 points the past two weeks. Luck is expected back for this “Deflategate” rematch but even if he’s healthy enough to get the Colts out of the blocks, it might be like bringing a knife to a gun fight. The Patriots love to pile it on – even when there’s no incentive - and New England has more than a few good reasons to let the air out of Lucas Oil Field early and often Sunday night.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - QB, Tom Brady, WR Julian Edleman, TE Rob Gronkowski, Fade - Colts D/ST

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6


Washington @ NY Jets

Game 261-262
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.020
NY Jets
135.195
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 6
41
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-6); Under

Arizona @ Pittsburgh

Game 263-264
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
135.285
Pittsburgh
138.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+3 1/2); Over

Miami @ Tennessee

Game 265-266
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.845
Tennessee
128.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+2 1/2); Under

Carolina @ Seattle

Game 267-268
October 18, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.408
Seattle
141.886
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-7); Over

San Diego @ Green Bay

Game 269-270
October 18, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
133.425
Green Bay
140.912
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+10 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ San Francisco

Game 271-272
October 18, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.498
San Francisco
131.376
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Over

Denver @ Cleveland

Game 251-252
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
140.263
Cleveland
128.457
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 12
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 4
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-4); Under

New England @ Indianapolis

Game 273-274
October 18, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
145.767
Indianapolis
132.545
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 13
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ Buffalo

Game 253-254
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
135.423
Buffalo
136.223
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ Minnesota

Game 255-256
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
131.998
Minnesota
132.807
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+4); Under

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 257-258
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
122.921
Jacksonville
126.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1
43
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1); Under

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 259-260
October 18, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
123.031
Detroit
133.519
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 10 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-3); Over


NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Game 275-276
October 19, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
137.652
Philadelphia
134.711
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 3
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
49
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+4); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Broncos (5-0) @ Browns (2-3)-- Unbeaten Broncos already won two games where offense didn't score TD; three of their five wins are by 6 or less points- they're 8-34 on 3rd down in last three games, as fading Manning has managed games while defense is winning them. Denver won last six series games, with four of six wins by 10+ points; their last visit here was in '08. Browns threw for 1,078 yards in last three games. 422 yards in rare win Sunday at Baltimore last week; McCown has established himself as #1 QB. Last two Brown games came down to FG on last play; since '12, they're 8-5 as home dogs. AFC North teams are 7-4-1 vs spread out of division. AFC West teams are 6-10 vs spread, 3-5 when favored.

Bengals (5-0) @ Bills (3-2)-- Cincinnati is unbeaten (4-0-1 vs spread) after OT win over Seattle, scoring 24+ points every game; they're 27-13-2 vs spread in last 42 games where spread was 3 or less points. Bengals won last two games with Buffalo by FG each, after losing previous ten meetings; they're 2-8 in last ten visits here. Bills scored only 24 points in last two games, after averaging 33.3 ppg in first three; only two QBs to beat Buffalo this year both won multiple Super Bowls (Brady/Manning). Cincinnati came back from down 17 in 4th quarter Sunday, first NFL team in 428 such games to do that. Bills are 12-8 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Four of five Bengal games went over total. AFC East teams are 6-3-1 vs spread out of division. Buffalo QB Taylor (MCL) may not play here; former starter Manuel would take his place- they'll regret trading Matt Cassel.

Chiefs (1-4) @ Vikings (2-2)-- Chiefs lost last four games, giving up 74 points in losing last two road tilts; now star RB Charles is gone and QB Smith doesn't throw ball well enough to carry offense. In last two games, Chiefs, have one TD, nine FGs; they've been outscored 37-9 in second half. Minnesota lost its last five post-bye games, with eight points closest loss; Vikings are 5-2 as home favorites under Zimmer, 4-0 outside NFC North. Home side won six of last seven series games; Chiefs are here for first time since '03. KC is 7-5 as road dog under Reid, 1-2 this year. Four of five Chief games went over total. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-0.

Texans (1-4) @ Jaguars (1-4)-- Houston won seven of last nine series games; four of last five were decided by 7 or less points. Texans won three of last four visits here, but are 0-2 on road this year, allowing 36 ppg- they're -8 in turnovers for season, and neither QB has played well enough to win games. Last three weeks, Jaguar foes are 23-50 on third down; they just played three straight road games, are 1-1 at home. Since '11, Houston is 11-7-1 as road favorite, but they're 4-11-1 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Since '09, Jaguars are 9-24-1 as a home underdog; they're 6-11 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Under is 20-13 in last 33 Jax home games. Divisional home dogs are 3-4 this season.

Bears (2-3) @ Lions (0-5)-- Chicago just posted consecutive comeback last-minute wins for first time since 1962; Bears lost last four games with Detroit, three by 8 or less points. Chicago lost three of last four visits here, losing by 11-8-17 points; Bears are 7-14 in last 21 NFC North road games, 9-15-1 as road dog since '11- since '12, they're 7-17-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Last three Bear games, three of last four Lion games stayed under total. Lions scored 13.8 ppg in last four games; they're 5-2-1 in last eight as home favorite, 7-3 as NFC North home fave, but 8-12-1 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less. Over is 15-11 in Detroit's last 26 home games. Chicago's three losses: Packers-Cardinals-Seattle, three of best teams in league.

Redskins (2-3) @ Jets (3-1)-- Washington making second visit to Swamp this season; they lost 32-21 (+3) to Giants here in Week 3 Thursday game. Redskins played nailbiters last two weeks, beating Philly in last minute, losing in OT at Atlanta; they're 8-2 against Jets, winning last four played here. Since '07, Washington is 30-46-7 vs spread in non-division games; since '13, they're 5-11 as road underdogs. Jets lost four of last five post-bye games; since '07, they're 19-28-1 as home favorite. Gang Green is +9 in turnovers in its wins, -3 in one loss; Washington has five takeaways in last two games, after having only two in first three weeks. Last three Jet games, four of five Redskin games stayed under total. AFC East teams are 6-3-1 vs spread out of division; NFC East teams are 4-7.

Cardinals (4-1) @ Steelers (3-2)-- Pttsburgh fired Bruce Arians as OC after the '11 season, over objections of Big Ben; he returns here with a 25-12 record as HC of Arizona team that scored 90 points winning first two road games (12 TDs on 21 drives). Cardinals are 5-1 as home favorite since '13, 15-6-1 in last 22 non-divisional road games. All five Arizona tilts this season went over total. Pittsburgh escaped San Diego with last-second win Monday nite; they're 8-3 in last 11 games with Arizona, winning last two here. Redbirds' last win in Steel City was in 1969. Since '07, Steelers are 5-1-1 as home dogs; they're 6-1 in last seven games following an upset win. Over is 10-4 in Pittsburgh's last 14 home games. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread.

Dolphins (1-3) @ Titans (1-3)-- First game for Campbell as interim HC of Dolphins, who lost last three games, allowing 157 rushing yards/game with only one takeaway (-4 ratio). Since '08, Miami is 29-16-1 as road dog (9-9 since '12); they're 4-8 in last 12 games with a spread of 3 or less, and lost three of last four post-bye games. Tennessee also lost its last three games, losing last two by total of three points; Titans are favored for first time this year, are 1-5-1 as home faves since 2013, 9-16-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Would expect Miami to run ball more under Campbell, a former TE who was TE coach but hasn't ever been a coordinator. AFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside the division. Three of four Tennessee games went over total.

Panthers (4-0) @ Seahawks (2-3)-- Seattle is 2-0 at home, not allowing an offensive TD; two of its losses were wth Chancellor out- they won last four series games, with last three slugfests by 16-12/12-7/13-9 scores. Carolina lost last three visits here by 6-20-17 points; since '12, Panthers are 12-5 as road dogs, but they've also lost last four post-bye games, with three losses by 16+ points. Carolina scored three defensive TDs in its two road wins; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Under is 15-11 in last 26 Seattle home games; they are 19-8 as home favorite with Carroll, 9-5 in last 14 games as non-divisional HF. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; NFC South teams are 9-5 against spread outside their division.

Chargers (2-3) @ Packers (5-0)-- Green Bay is 9-1-1 vs spread in last 11 home games, 5-0 vs spread overall this season- they turned ball over three times in 24-10 win LW, after they turned ball over only once in first four games. Pack is 18-8-1 as non-divisional home faves. Long travel, short week for Bolts after last-second home loss late Monday night; Chargers won last four post-Monday games, but lost nine of last 10 games vs Packers, who scored 31+ points in last five series games. Since '12, San Diego is 13-7-1 as road dog, 17-8-1 after losing as a favorite, Chargers haven't been to Lambeau Field since '07- last win here was in '84. San Diego is 0-2 on road, losing by 5-17 points. Over is 27-16 in Green Bay's last 43 home games, but 1-2 this year.

Ravens (1-4) @ 49ers (1-4)-- John Harbaugh beat the 49ers in Super Bowl three years ago, when his brother was coaching Niners; now Jim is in Michigan, 49ers are 1-4, Baltimore's defense has fallen apart. In four losses, Raven opponents are 37-67 on third down- Steelers were 2-13 in only win. Baltimore split pair of OT games last two weeks; their defense was gassed at end LW, giving up 457 passing yards to McCown, most by any Cleveland QB since Otto Graham. Ravens are 8-11 as road favorites since '11, 13-15-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less. 49ers allowed 10 ppg in splitting pair of home games, giving up two TDs on 19 drives- they're giving up 40 ppg on road. Under is 13-5 in 49ers' last 18 home games, 2-0 this year.

Patriots (4-0) @ Colts (3-2)-- Indy won its last three games by total of 12 points as they recover from 0-2 start, but now Patriots come to town having won last six games vs Colts, scoring average of 47.3 ppg in last four series games. Throw in NE revenge motive after Colts accused them of taking air out of balls in playoffs LY and this could get ugly, seeing as Luck didn't play for Colts in last two games, but is expected back here. Pats are scoring 37.3 ppg, winning first two on road 40-32/30-6; they're still just 3-7 in last ten as road favorite, but 3-0-1 vs spread overall this season. Indy is 6-0 as a home underdog since '12, 7-3 as non-divisional home underdog. Under is 35-22-1 in Indy home games since 2006.

Giants (3-2) @ Eagles (2-3)-- Philly is 11-3 in last 14 games vs Big Blue; teams split last four games played here. Giants scored 28.7 ppg in winning last three games after 0-2 start in which they led by 10+ points in 4th quarter both times- since '11, they're 15-10 as road dogs, 2-0 this season. Giants are 12-6 as divisional road underdog since '07; Eagles are 2-6 as divisional home favorite, but are 8-4 in last 12 games overall as a home fave. Over is 7-3 in Giants' last ten road games, 17-9 in Eagles' last 26 home games. Philly averaged 7.1/7.4 ypa in last two games, after averaging 6.5 or less in first three games- they're +5 in TOs in two wins, -2 in losses. Giant opponents were over 50% on 3rd down in three of five tilts so far this year. Kaepernick threw for 262 yards against them LW.

[Udog]

NFL injury report for Sunday's games


ARIZONA CARDINALS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--Out: LB Alex Okafor (calf)

--Questionable: G Mike Iupati (back), S Rashad Johnson (thigh, hip), LB LaMarr Woodley (chest)

--Probable: CB Justin Bethel (foot), WR John Brown (hamstring), TE Darren Fells (hip), S Tony Jefferson (neck), S Tyrann Mathieu (heel), WR J.J. Nelson (shoulder), T Jared Veldheer (ribs)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Out: S Will Allen (ankle), QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee, coach's decision to not practice Friday), LB Ryan Shazier (shoulder)

--Questionable: CB Cortez Allen (knee), LB Jarvis Jones (hip)

--Probable: LB James Harrison (illness), C Doug Legursky (back)

BALTIMORE RAVENS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Out: S Terrence Brooks (thumb), DE Chris Canty (calf), WR Breshad Perriman (knee), WR Darren Waller (concussion)

--Doubtful: CB Lardarius Webb (thigh)

--Questionable: LB Elvis Dumervil (thigh), RB Justin Forsett (ankle), TE Crockett Gillmore (calf), WR Chris Givens (ankle), WR Steve Smith (back), G Marshal Yanda (ankle)

--Probable: LB Daryl Smith (not injury related)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Doubtful: RB Reggie Bush (calf)

--Questionable: LB Ahmad Brooks (not injury related, shoulder), TE Vernon Davis (knee), WR Bruce Ellington (calf), LB Eli Harold (knee), RB Carlos Hyde (foot), G Brandon Thomas (ankle)

--Probable: G Alex Boone (shoulder), LB Navorro Bowman (not injury related), TE Vance McDonald (chest)

CAROLINA PANTHERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Out: DE Jared Allen (back), LB A.J. Klein (concussion), T Daryl Williams (knee)

--Doubtful: TE Richie Brockel (hamstring)

--Questionable: G Amini Silatolu (ankle)

--Probable: WR Jerricho Cotchery (ankle), LB Luke Kuechly (concussion)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Out: CB Marcus Burley (hand)

--Doubtful: DE Frank Clark (hamstring), DT Jordan Hill (quadricep), LB Nick Moody (ankle), CB Tye Smith (hip)

--Questionable: LB Brock Coyle (knee), DE Demarcus Dobbs (shoulder), RB Marshawn Lynch (hamstring), LB Bobby Wagner (pectoral)

--Probable: DE Michael Bennett (not injury related), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (hamstring)

CHICAGO BEARS at DETROIT LIONS

CHICAGO BEARS

--Doubtful: DE Ego Ferguson (knee), LB Shea McClellin (knee), CB Terrance Mitchell (hamstring), S Antrel Rolle (ankle)

--Questionable: WR Josh Bellamy (groin), TE Martellus Bennett (quadricep), T Jermon Bushrod (shoulder), WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring), LB Pernell McPhee (shoulder), G Patrick Omameh (ankle), DT Jay Ratliff (ankle), WR Eddie Royal (ankle), DE Will Sutton (elbow)

DETROIT LIONS

--Out: TE Eric Ebron (knee), LB DeAndre Levy (hip), DT Haloti Ngata (calf)

--Questionable: RB Joique Bell (ankle), S James Ihedigbo (quadricep), RB Theo Riddick (groin)

--Probable: DE Jason Jones (knee), CB Darius Slay (hip), DE Darryl Tapp (ankle), WR Golden Tate (hip), T LaAdrian Waddle (knee), G Larry Warford (ankle)

CINCINNATI BENGALS at BUFFALO BILLS

CINCINNATI BENGALS

--Questionable: CB Leon Hall (back)

--Probable: CB Adam Jones (groin), WR Marvin Jones (foot), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hip), T Andre Smith (elbow), WR Brandon Tate (illness), G Kevin Zeitler (elbow)

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: WR Marcus Easley (shoulder), RB Karlos Williams (concussion), RB Cierre Wood (knee)

--Questionable: WR Percy Harvin (hip), QB Tyrod Taylor (knee), WR Sammy Watkins (calf)

--Probable: CB Ron Brooks (thumb), TE Charles Clay (calf), DT Marcell Dareus (hip), T Cordy Glenn (ankle), WR Chris Hogan (hamstring), LB Randell Johnson (hand), T Cyrus Kouandjio (knee), RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring), G John Miller (groin), S Bacarri Rambo (quadricep)

DENVER BRONCOS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: T Ty Sambrailo (shoulder), LB DeMarcus Ware (back)

--Questionable: G Evan Mathis (hamstring), CB Aqib Talib (ankle), WR Demaryius Thomas (neck), RB Juwan Thompson (hamstring)

--Probable: DE Kenny Anunike (knee), CB Omar Bolden (foot), TE Owen Daniels (not injury related), WR Bennie Fowler (hamstring), T Ryan Harris (knee), WR Cody Latimer (groin), QB Peyton Manning (not injury related), G Louis Vasquez (not injury related)

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: S Tashaun Gipson (ankle), CB Joe Haden (concussion, finger), LB Craig Robertson (ankle)

--Questionable: DE Desmond Bryant (shoulder), RB Isaiah Crowell (toe), LB Karlos Dansby (ankle), RB Shaun Draughn (back), WR Marlon Moore (hamstring), RB Robert Turbin (ankle)

--Probable: WR Brian Hartline (thigh), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow), QB Josh McCown (ankle), T Mitchell Schwartz (thumb)

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Out: LB Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), S Quintin Demps (hamstring), WR Nate Washington (hamstring)

--Questionable: RB Alfred Blue (toe), DE Jared Crick (knee), LB Brian Peters (hamstring), WR Jaelen Strong (illness)

--Probable: G Oday Aboushi (toe), S Lonnie Ballentine (knee), CB A.J. Bouye (illness), T Duane Brown (hand), LB Brian Cushing (ankle), LB Akeem Dent (hamstring), TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (neck), RB Arian Foster (groin), RB Jonathan Grimes (hamstring), CB Kareem Jackson (not injury related), T Derek Newton (knee), RB Chris Polk (knee), WR Cecil Shorts (shoulder)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: WR Marqise Lee (hamstring), RB Bernard Pierce (concussion, hamstring)

--Doubtful: S James Sample (shoulder)

--Questionable: RB T.J. Yeldon (groin)

--Probable: QB Blake Bortles (shoulder), C Luke Bowanko (neck), DE Chris Clemons (not injury related), CB Aaron Colvin (shoulder), CB Davon House (hip), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, thigh), DT Abry Jones (knee), DT Sen'Derrick Marks (knee), T Jermey Parnell (knee), LB Paul Posluszny (ankle), RB Denard Robinson (knee), TE Julius Thomas (hand), T Sam Young (illness)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Out: LB Joshua Mauga (groin, Achilles), DT Dontari Poe (ankle)

--Questionable: LB Tamba Hali (knee)

--Probable: CB Jamell Fleming (elbow), TE Travis Kelce (groin, neck), TE James O'Shaughnessy (hand), TE Brian Parker (finger)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: DE Justin Trattou (foot)

--Questionable: WR Charles Johnson (rib), S Andrew Sendejo (knee)

--Probable: TE Rhett Ellison (knee), CB Jabari Price (shoulder), WR Mike Wallace (knee), WR Jarius Wright (shoulder)

MIAMI DOLPHINS at TENNESSEE TITANS

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Questionable: T Branden Albert (hamstring), DT A.J. Francis (back), CB Brent Grimes (knee)

--Probable: CB Zackary Bowman (shoulder), LB Chris McCain (shoulder), TE Dion Sims (concussion), DE Cameron Wake (hamstring)

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: LB Deiontrez Mount (knee)

--Questionable: CB Perrish Cox (hamstring), TE Anthony Fasano (concussion), DT Sammie Lee Hill (illness, knee), LB Avery Williamson (hamstring)

--Probable: TE Chase Coffman (not injury related), S Michael Griffin (not injury related), T Taylor Lewan (shoulder), CB Cody Riggs (knee), G Chance Warmack (knee)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: T King Dunlap (concussion), CB Craig Mager (hamstring), DE Darius Philon (hip, thigh), C Chris Watt (groin, concussion), LB Tourek Williams (foot)

--Doubtful: WR Stevie Johnson (hamstring)

--Questionable: G D.J. Fluker (ankle), G Orlando Franklin (ankle), T Chris Hairston (ankle), LB Manti Te'o (ankle)

--Probable: LB Kyle Emanuel (shoulder)

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Doubtful: LB Nick Perry (shoulder, hand), DT B.J. Raji (groin)

--Questionable: WR Davante Adams (ankle), S Morgan Burnett (calf), CB Ladarius Gunter (heel)

--Probable: T Bryan Bulaga (knee), WR Randall Cobb (shoulder), CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring), WR James Jones (hamstring), G T.J. Lang (knee), LB Jake Ryan (hamstring)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at NEW YORK JETS

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: CB Chris Culliver (knee), CB DeAngelo Hall (toe), C Kory Lichtensteiger (shoulder, finger, neck), TE Jordan Reed (concussion), T Trent Williams (neck, concussion)

--Questionable: WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), RB Matt Jones (toe), DE Stephen Paea (back), WR Andre Roberts (quadricep)

--Probable: CB Bashaud Breeland (shoulder), WR Pierre Garcon (knee), DE Kedric Golston (hand), C Josh LeRibeus (calf), G Spencer Long (knee), LB Perry Riley (calf), RB Chris Thompson (shoulder)

NEW YORK JETS

--Doubtful: S Jaiquawn Jarrett (knee), WR Chris Owusu (knee), CB Marcus Williams (hamstring)

--Questionable: G Willie Colon (knee), LB David Harris (quadricep), RB Bilal Powell (groin)

--Probable: S Dion Bailey (elbow), LB Quinton Coples (elbow), CB Antonio Cromartie (groin, not injury related), TE Jeff Cumberland (concussion), WR Eric Decker (knee), RB Chris Ivory (quadricep), LB Jamari Lattimore (concussion), S Calvin Pryor (knee), CB Darrin Walls (hamstring), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (ribs), DE Leonard Williams (ankle)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS on Sunday night

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: CB Tarell Brown (foot)

--Questionable: DE Trey Flowers (knee, shoulder), LB Dont'a Hightower (ribs), RB Dion Lewis (abdomen)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Questionable: LB Jerrell Freeman (groin), LB Nate Irving (knee), QB Andrew Luck (right shoulder)

--Probable: LB Trent Cole (back), WR T.Y. Hilton (groin), LB Bjoern Werner (hamstring), DT Billy Winn (eye)