NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, October 1 - Monday, October 5)

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 5

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Lions at Seahawks
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The Under has cashed in seven of the Detroit Lions' previous eight games on Monday Night Football.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 43)

The Detroit Lions have been among the NFL's biggest disappointments on the young season and now face the daunting task of trying to record their first victory at one of the league's most hostile venues. Struggling Detroit will be looking to avoid its first 0-4 start since 2010 when it pays a visit to the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night.

The Lions blew an early 21-3 lead in a season-opening loss to San Diego and have gone down meekly in losses at Minnesota (26-16) and to Peyton Manning and Denver (24-12) in last weekend's home opener. "I think our team is right there," Detroit coach Jim Caldwell insisted. "You just can't see it, but we can." The Seahawks finally broke into the win column last weekend but could be without standout running back Marshawn Lynch, who is dealing with a hamstring injury and is expected to be a game-time decision. Seattle is playing its third consecutive NFC North opponent, blanking Chicago 26-0 in its home opener after losing at Green Bay 27-17 in Week 2.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Seahawks as 10-point home faves. The total is up a half-point from the opening 42.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Lions

RB Joique Bell (Questionable, ankle), LB DeAndre Levy (Questionable, hip), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Questionable, hamstring), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, groin), G Larry Warford (Questionable, ankle).

Seahawks

DE Demarcus Dobbs (Probable, shoulder), RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable, hamstring), CB Tharold Simon (Questionable, toe), S Steve Terrell (Questionable, hip), TE Luke Wilson (Questionable, back), DT Brandon Mebane (Questionable, groin).

WEATHER: Clear skies with temperatures in the high-60s. Wind will blow toward the south endzone at around five mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Lions (+3.5) + Seahawks (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -9.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Lions better start winning at home, because their next three road games are all extremely tough: at Seattle, Kansas City and Green Bay. The Seahawks offense continued to struggle against the weak Bears defense on Sunday, 0-2 in the red zone while failing to convert on 11 different third down tries."

ABOUT THE LIONS (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown as many interceptions (five) as touchdown passes and is receiving little support from a ground game that is averaging a league-low 45 yards per game and has done almost nothing since a solid NFL debut by rookie Ameer Abdullah. Wideout Calvin Johnson has 18 of his 20 receptions over the past two games while Golden Tate - second on the team with 15 catches - should not be lacking for motivation as he faces the team with which he played for four seasons. A defense that has been gashed through the air and on the ground is hoping for the return of linebacker DeAndre Levy (hip), who led the team in tackles last season.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Although Seattle pitched a shutout against the banged-up Bears last week, it was not an especially sharp effort - the Seahawks led 6-0 at the half before dynamic rookie Tyler Lockett returned the second-half kickoff a franchise-record 105 yards for a touchdown. Russell Wilson made it a point to target tight end Jimmy Graham, who had seven catches for 83 yards and a TD, while undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls did a nice imitation of Lynch by rushing for 104 yards on 16 carries. Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor ended his two-game holdout and made his season debut last week for Seattle, which is 23-2 at CenturyLink Field since 2012 and has won seven in a row at home.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Seahawks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Lions' last eight Monday games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of users are backing the Seahawks.

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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 5


Seahawks RB Lynch out for MNF

Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch won't play in Monday's game against the Detroit Lions because of a hamstring injury.

Undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls will likely be the starter. Rawls had 104 yards on 16 carries in the victory over the Bears.

Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane was also officially ruled out by the Seahawks.

Lynch injured the hamstring Week 3 against the Chicago Bears. He was dealing with a calf injury entering that game.


Falcons, Bengals remain perfect SU and ATS

There's no slowing down the Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals in the early stages of the 2015 NFL season as both teams improved to 4-0 straight up and against the spread with big wins Sunday.

The Falcons thumped the Houston Texans by a score of 48-21, crushing the closing spread as 4-point home faves.

Over in the AFC, the Bengals dominated the Kansas City Chiefs in the first and third quarters en route to a 36-21 victory as 2.5-point home favorites.

The Bengals will be tested in Week 5 as they host the Seattle Seahawks, while the Washington Redskins travel to Georgia to face the Falcons.



NFL roundup: Five teams open with 4-0 record

CINCINNATI -- Andy Dalton completed his first 10 pass attempts and finished with 321 yards, and running back Jeremy Hill scored three touchdowns as the Cincinnati Bengals improved to 4-0 for the third time in a franchise history with a 36-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.

Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green had seven catches for 82 yards. Dalton finished 17 for 24 with one touchdown.

Quarterback Alex Smith was sacked five times but was 31 of 45 for 376 yards passing for Kansas City (1-3), which managed only seven field goals by Cairo Santos. Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles had 145 all-purpose yards, and receiver Jeremy Maclin had 11 catches for 148 yards.

Cincinnati led by two points in the third quarter when it began to pull away.

Falcons 48, Texans 21

ATLANTA -- Devonta Freeman became the first player in NFL history to score three touchdowns in his first two career starts, fueling Atlanta's rout of Houston.

The Falcons are 4-0 for the first time since 2012. The Texans (1-3) turned it over four times and weren't in the game for long.

Ryan completed 19 of 26 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown, extending his streak of 250-plus-yard passing games to 11. Wide receiver Julio Jones caught four passes for a season-low 38 yards in less than three quarters of action.

Panthers 37, Buccaneers 23

TAMPA -- Carolina converted five turnovers from rookie quarterback Jameis Winston into 27 points, cruising to a 4-0 record with a win over Tampa Bay.

Cam Newton threw two touchdown passes to wide receiver Ted Ginn, and cornerback Josh Norman intercepted two Winston passes, returning one for a touchdown. Just as the Bucs (1-3) looked to get close before halftime, rookie kicker Kyle Brindza missed two straight field goals before the Panthers pulled away.

For the second straight home game, Winston's first pass attempt was intercepted and returned for a touchdown, this one 46 yards by Norman, who has four INTs and two pick-sixes in a dominant first four games of the season.

Giants 24, Bills 10

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Eli Manning passed for 212 yards and three touchdowns as New York beat Buffalo.

Receivers Dwayne Harris and Ruben Randle and running back Rashad Jennings caught touchdowns for the Giants (2-2), who have won two in a row.

Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor passed for 274 yards and a touchdown. Rookie running back Karlos Williams scored a touchdown for the fourth straight game, but was held to 40 yards rushing. Buffalo (2-2) was penalized 17 times, including twice on plays that appeared to be touchdowns.

Redskins 23, Eagles 20

WASHINGTON -- Kirk Cousins threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Pierre Garcon with 26 seconds left, lifting Washington over Philadelphia.

Starting on their own 10-yard line with 6:05 left, the Redskins (2-2) used a mix of passes and runs to get to the Eagles 34 at the two minute warning. On third-and-6, Cousins hit Garcon for 14 yards to the 16, and the pair connected again for 12 yards, setting up the game-winner. Cousins finished 31-of-46 for 290 yards and a touchdown.

Philadelphia quarterback Sam Bradford threw three second-half touchdown passes as the Eagles rallied from a 13-0 halftime deficit. He finished 15-of-29 for 269 yards for the 1-3 Eagles.

Jets 27, Dolphins 14

LONDON -- The bye week might hold a double meaning for Miami, but coach Joe Phibin said it's no time to panic.

Philbin and his top lieutenants, defensive coordinator Frank Coyle and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, are under fire in the wake of a third consecutive loss for the 1-3 Dolphins, the latest a whipping at the hands of New York (3-1) at Wembley Stadium.

"It all seems like the walls are closing in on you. We all realize that. So we gotta look at things and be honest about where we are, what we're doing well and what we're not doing well," Philbin said.

Jets running back Chris Ivory Ivory ran for a career-high 166 yards and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 218 yards and one touchdown.

Bears 22, Raiders 20

CHICAGO — Robbie Gould's third field goal of the game, a 49-yarder with two seconds remaining, lifted Chicago (1-3) over Oakland (2-2) in a back-and-forth, error-filled game.

Quarterback Jay Cutler, returning after missing one game due to a hamstring injury, led a magnificent late drive with the help of receivers making nifty catches on the sideline. He completed five of eight passes on the winning drive and 28 of 43 for 281 yards overall.

Cutler also lost a fumble on a snap and threw an interception, leading directly to 10 of Oakland's points. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr threw two touchdown passes but also an interception that set up one of Gould's field goals.

Colts 16, Jaguars 13 (OT)

INDIANAPOLIS -- With franchise quarterback Andrew Luck sidelined by a shoulder injury, Indianapolis turned to their two oldest players to salvage an overtime victory over Jacksonville (1-3).

Adam Vinatieri's 27-yard field goal with 4:36 remaining in overtime gave the Colts (2-2) a much-needed victory. At 42, Vinatieri is the Colts' oldest player.

Backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, 40, started in place of Luck and completed 30 of 47 passes for 282 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions.

Packers 17, 49ers 3

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Aaron Rodgers threw for 224 yards and one touchdown, and Green Bay remained undefeated with a victory over San Francisco at Levi's Stadium.

Green Bay's defense dominated Colin Kaepernick and a struggling 49ers offense. Kaepernick was sacked six times. Nick Perry had two sacks, while Clay Matthews, Jayrone Elliott, Julius Peppers and Mike Neal each had one at Levi's, which will host Super Bowl 50 this season.

The 49ers lost their third straight game and have been outscored 107-28 during that stretch. The Packers had lost four straight games to San Francisco, including playoff defeats in the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

Chargers 30, Browns 27

SAN DIEGO -- Rookie Josh Lambo's 34-yard field goal with no time remaining lifted San Diego past Cleveland.

Lambo was wide right from 39 yards with two second left, but defensive back Tramon Williams was called offside, giving Lambo another chance.

The Browns pulled to within 27-25 on Gary Barnidge's 1-yard scoring catch with two minutes to play. Taylor Gabriel caught Josh McCown's pass for a 2-point conversion to tie the game, 27-27.

Broncos 23, Vikings 20

DENVER -- Brandon McManus kicked three field goals, including a 39-yarder with 1:51 remaining, and Denver hung on to beat Minnesota to remain undefeated.

Peyton Manning, shaking off two interceptions, led the Broncos into position for the tie-breaking score with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman also contributing key runs. Hillman had 103 yards rushing, including a 72-yard touchdown run.

Denver, off to a 4-0 start for the seventh time in franchise history and the second time in the last three years, sealed the win when blitzing safety T.J. Ward ended the last-ditch possession of Minnesota at midfield by sacking Teddy Bridgewater and forcing a fumble that Von Miller recovered.

Rams 24, Cardinals 22

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The red zone had been like a gold mine for Arizona during its 3-0 start. The Cardinals had scored touchdowns on 11 of their first 12 trips inside opponents' 20-yard line -- the second most such scores in the NFL.

Against St. Louis at University of Phoenix Stadium, the red zone was more like a dead zone for Arizona.

The St. Louis defense forced the Cardinals to settle for five field goals and the Rams offense got three touchdown passes from Nick Foles, two of which went to wide receiver Tavon Austin, as the Rams held on for the victory.

Saints 26, Cowboys 20 (OT)

NEW ORLEANS -- C.J. Spiller used his speed on a wheel route to catch an 80-yard touchdown pass from Drew Brees to lift New Orleans to an overtime victory over Dallas at the Mercedes Benz Superdome.

The Saints blew a point-blank chance to win the game in regulation, but Zach Hocker clanged a 30-yard field goal off the left upright with 12 seconds left, setting up overtime.

The Saints won the overtime toss, and it didn't start well, with Khiry Robinson dropping a first-down pass from Brees (33 of 41 for 359 yards and two touchdowns). But on second down, Spiller blazed out of the backfield down the right sidelines and took a perfect strike from Brees, scoring the touchdown just 13 seconds into overtime. Because the Saints scored a touchdown on their first possession, the Cowboys did not have a chance for an overtime possession.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 1 season record: 5-2

6) Broncos, -6.5 (393)-- Didn't score offensive TD in first home game. L

5) Bengals -4 (402)-- Chiefs are visiting after Monday night loss. W

4) Jaguars +9 (403)-- Luck is expected to play despite messed up shoulder. W

3) Giants +5 (483)-- Big Blue hasn't played in New York State since 2007. W

2) Panthers -3 (542)-- Newton didn't play either game against Bucs LY. W

1) Cardinals, -7 (563)-- Arizona bandwagon is filling up. L. (4-2, 15-10)


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday......

13) Jets 27, Dolphins 14-- Miami needs a QB change; they were 0-12 on third down, thats simply not good enough. Backup Matt Moore is 11-12 as an NFL starter but his last start was in 2011- it is time to find out if he can do better than Tannehill.

12) Colts 16, Jaguars 13 OT-- Jags kicker Myers missed three GW field goals and Jax lost a game they outgained Indy by 105 yards- not often they'll get to play Colts with Andrew Luck on sidelines. Jacksonville is improved; they should've won this game.

11) Falcons 48, Texans 21-- Worst game of the week; total domination by Atlanta, which is now 4-0. Total mismanageent of QB situation by Bill O'Brien, who yanked Mallett, three weeks after he yanked Brian Hoyer. Colts-Texans this Thursday could be extremely ugly, if Luck doesn't play.

10) Panthers 37, Buccaneers 23-- Jameis Winston is a disaster; he threw four more INTs, one run back for TD. Carolina had two defensive TDs, and its offensive TDs came on drives of 45-33 yards. They think the only way he'll get better is to let him play, so this ain't going away anytime soon.

9) Giants 24, Bills 10-- Modern football is like this: training camp is a waste of time for starters, since they're not allowed to do anything, because teams are terrified that they'll get hurt. So September becomes a de facto training camp; thought the quality of play this week was much better than previous weeks. Guys are in game shape.

8) Bears 22, Raiders 20-- Don't want to hear any Bears fan criticize Jay Cutler for a long time; he came back (early) from his injury and rallied Chicago to win here over an improved Raiders team. Anyone who criticoez Cutler will get a reminder than Jimmy Clausen is the alternative- that should quiet things down.

7) Redskins 23, Eagles 20-- I'm guessing Chip Kelly's agent got a phone call or a text from Austin TX today, asking if the coach would like to go back to college. Bradford threw ball well in second half, but defense couldn't hold its lead at the end. As for the Redskins, they have to be thrilled with Kirk Cousins' progress.

6) Bengals 36, Chiefs 21-- Kansas City scored seven times on nine drives, Bengals scored six times; but Chiefs kicked seven FGs, no TDs, while Cincy had five TDs and one FG. so Kansas City is 1-3, three games behind Denver in AFC West.

5) Chargers 30, Browns 27-- San Diego missed GW field goal at gun, but Cleveland was offsides and Bolts nailed second chance to send everyone home happy. There is such a fine line between winning and losing; giving away a game like that is painful.

4) Packers 17, 49ers 3-- Green Bay was flat, flying to west coast after Monday night game, but they did what they had to do. As for the 49ers, I can hear Roger Goodell now: "With the first pick in the 2016 NFL Dradt, the 49ers select......."

3) Broncos 23, Vikings 20-- Denver was only 2-9 on third down; they're unbeaten, but Peyton Manning is a game manager now, rather than a bus driver. As for all his TV commercials, I will tell you that Papa John's pizza is the best pizza I've ever had.

2) Rams 24, Cardinals 22-- Tony Dungy said what I was thinking yesterday; Rams play better against division rivals. Problem is, those are only six of their 16 games each year. Rookie RB Gurley looked like a stud in his breakout game here- that will open up the passing game some. It would be better if their tight ends could catch the ball.

1) Saints 26, Cowboys 20 OT-- Drew Brees put on an exhibition of QB excellence in 2:00 drill, and then in OT, as Saints won first game of year, despite kicker bricking a 30-yard FG at the gun. This was the shortest OT in regular season history, missing the all-time record by two seconds. Weeden lost his 10th start in row, but he led a tying TD drive and looked good doing it, but they play New England next.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 5


Dolphins fire head coach Joe Philbin

The Miami Dolphins have relived Joe Philbin of his coaching duties after getting off to a disappointing 1-3 start.

The last straw was the 27-14 drubbing at the hands of the New York Jets Sunday in London.

The Dolphins were 23-28-1 against the spread in Philbin's three-plus years as the team's head coach.


With no Luck, Colts fail to cover yet again

The Indianapolis Colts were unable to cover the four-point chalk in Week 4, squeaking out a 16-13 overtime victory over the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars, dropping the Colts to a league worst 0-4 against the spread this season.

The Colts were missing Andrew Luck due to a shoulder injury, and while the Colts were able to win without their franchise quarterback, they failed to cover once again.

The Detroit Lions can join the Colts at 0-4 ATS if they are unable to cover the +10-point spread on Monday night in Seattle.


Rams LB Ogletree headed to IR

St. Louis Rams linebacker Alec Ogletree could miss 8-12 weeks with a right ankle injury that will require surgery.

As for his roster status, the Rams must determine whether injured reserve-designated to return is a feasible option for Ogletree. If not, he would be placed on season-ending injured reserve.

Ogletree has played well for the Rams at weak-side linebacker. He was injured Sunday in the St. Louis victory at Arizona.

Filling Ogletree's spot isn't simple in head coach Jeff Fisher's defense.

Special teams captain Daren Bates, 24, is likely to be promoting to a starting role with a challenging first assignment -- facing Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 5


Colts QB Luck hopes to play Thursday

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck will prepare as the starter for Thursday's game at Houston.

Luck has a subluxation, or partial separation, of his right throwing shoulder. He did not play Sunday in the Colts' 16-13 overtime win. The injury typically heals with rest and treatment over time, and the length of recovery depends on the severity of the initial injury.

Luck had an MRI exam last week but did not throw in practice. He saw at least two noted medical experts before sitting out Week 4.

The Colts said publicly that Luck would likely start last week, but he was ruled out Friday night, and 40-year-old backup Matt Hasselbeck got the call.