Betting Recap - Week 4
September 27, 2015
Overall Notes
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 51-8
Against the Spread 33-25-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 36-23
Against the Spread 20-38-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-27-3
The largest underdog to win straight up
East Carolina (+10, ML +330) vs. Virginia Tech, 35-28
Utah (+10, ML +300) at Oregon, 62-20
The largest favorite to cover
Baylor (-33) vs. Rice, 70-17
Top 25 Notes
-- Everything went according to plan for everyone in the Associated Press' Top 10, and most everyone in the Top 25. It almost wasn't the case, as Texas Christian needed late heroics to hold off Texas Tech in a Lone Star State shootout, 55-52. In fact, it was a bad beat for some (see below). ... After TCU managed to win in the closing seconds, that pushed the Top 10 teams to a 9-0 SU record, although they were just 3-6 ATS. The only Top 10 teams to cover were Baylor (-33 vs. Rice), Notre Dame (-28.5) vs. Massachusetts and UCLA (-1) at Arizona. ... One of the most shocking results of the weekend came in Eugene. What appeared to be one of the better matchups on paper coming in turned into be anything but that. Utah (+10, ML +300) turned it on in the second quarter, and then ran away with a 28-point third-quarter blitzkreig to stun Oregon and the Pac-12 and serve notice to the rest of the conference that the Utes are for real. ... Georgia Tech looked like one of the more impressive offenses in the nation through the first two games, but looks can be deceiving against cupcakes as opposed to quality foes. The Yellow Jackets have dominated against the number against Duke in recent years, but it was the home dog Blue Devils (+7.5, ML +260) coming through with a 34-20 victory.
-- Notre Dame looks like they're going to be just fine despite several injuries at key positions. They lost QB Malik Zaire (ankle) to a a season-ending injury two weeks ago, but after convincing wins against Ga. Tech and UMass, averaging 46.0 points per game in the process, the Irish will be just fine with DeShone Kizer under center. The Irish have now covered three of their four games heading into Clemson next Saturday.
-- After an impressive win at Virginia Tech to open the season, Ohio State remains unbeaten but they are having some offensive issues. Ohio State was a little better than last week, taking care of Western Michigan by a 38-12 score. Still, the Buckeyes have failed to cover their past three games, averaging just 32.0 PPG. They have been favored by 33.5 or more in each of the outings, so it's no surprise they're 0-3 ATS during the span and the 'under' is also 0-3 during the stretch.
-- Georgia ran over FCS Southern in its final tuneup before a showdown with Alabama next Saturday. Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Chubb ran for 131 and two touchdowns, while adding a TD through the air, and Sony Michel also found the end zone twice.
-- Mississippi had a bit of a hangover, getting all they could handle from a sturdy defensive club from Vanderbilt. Ole Miss had 43 or more points in each of their first three games, all covers and overs, but the Rebs managed just 27 points and never threatened to cover the 27-point number. The 'over' (53) was also never threatened.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- It was a so-so day for the Atlantic Coast Conference. One team flying under most people's radar is North Carolina State. They rolled to a 63-13 win at South Alabama, running their record to 4-0 SU/ATS. We'll get a much better idea about the Wolfpack next weekend when Louisville pays a visit to the Triangle. ... Virginia Tech slipped and slided in the rain at East Carolina, falling 35-28 at Dowdy-Ficklen. The Hokies are 2-2 SU/ATS, but the one thing consistent has been the 'over', which is 4-0. ... Boston College continues to use strong defense to get the job done. The Eagles took care of Northern Illinois by a 17-14 score. Most will remember the Huskies took No. 1 Ohio State to the mat last week. The under is 3-0 for Boston College this season.
-- Northwestern rebounded with a hard-fought 24-19 win over Ball State, as the 'under' is now 4-0 for the Wildcats. The 19 points allowed were actually more than the first three games (16 total points) combined. ... Rutgers has had a ton of off-field issues, but they did well enough to knock out a 27-14 win against Kansas. However, they failed to cover for the third straight game, and the under is now 2-0 in the past two. ... Michigan won for the third straight game, posting a 31-0 win against Brigham Young. It was the fourth 'under' for the Wolverines in as many games. ... Indiana held on for a 31-24 win at Wake Forest, earning their third consecutive cover. The total hit right on the number, and the over is now 3-0-1 for the Hoosiers heading into their showdown at 'The Rock' next weekend against Ohio State.
-- West Virginia looked awfully fresh coming off a bye, spanking Maryland by a 45-6 score to easy cover a 17-point number. West Virginia had been 0-8 ATS in their past eight games after a bye, so it goes to show you can't always depend on historical trends. ... Texas continues to find new ways to lose, dropping a 30-27 game against Oklahoma State. See the bad beats section below for more info. ... Texas Tech slipped up 55-52 in the final seconds against TCU, but they have covered in three straight games, and they're 3-0-1 ATS in four games overall.
-- In five conference battles in the Pac-12, it was the road team going 5-0 SU/ATS. The only Pac-12 team to win was Colorado, who pounded FCS Nicholls State by a 48-0 count. .. USC bounced back nicely with a thumping of Arizona State, 42-14. It was 21-0 with the Sun Devils on the USC 1 late in the first half. Instead of poking it in to close the game to 21-7, USC scooped up a fumble and ran back all the way for a 28-0 score. They then scooped up a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, leading to a second touchdown in the final minute. Instead of going to half down 21-7, Todd Graham's group had a dumpster fire on its hands, down 35-0. Sparky could never recover. The Sun Devils are now 0-4 ATS this season, and the 'under' has hit in each of their games. ... California went to Washington and covered as a slight favorite, hanging on for a 30-24 win. UCLA was also a slight road favorite, and they blew the doors off of Arizona despite the return of LB Scooby Wright. It was UCLA's first over in four tries.
-- Florida continued its win streak against Kentucky last week, and they won for the 11th consecutive time against Tennessee in a thrilling game in The Swamp Saturday. See the bad beats section for more details. ... Speaking of bad beats, Texas A&M stunned Arkansas by a 28-21 count in overtime to cover a six-point spread. ... Auburn was tripped up for the second consecutive week, falling to 0-2 in the SEC West after their 17-9 setback to Mississippi State. They're also 0-4 ATS in four games this season.
Mid-Major Report
-- ECU scored the signature win for the American Athletic Conference against Va. Tech, and that overshadowed the loss of SMU against FCS James Madison. Chad Morris' group continues to score points, posting 45 in the loss. But the Mustangs still need to learn how to play defense. ... UCF is also a train wreck, falling 31-14 at South Carolina. The Golden Knights slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS, and the 'under' is now 3-0-1. ... Houston crushed Texas State by a 59-14 count, actually pushing on the total at most shops. It was the second straight cover for the Cougars, and the over is now 2-0-1.
-- Florida Atlantic picked up its first win of the season at Charlotte, improving to 2-0 ATS in two road outings. ... Southern Mississippi went to Lincoln and lost to Nebraska, but they made a spirited comeback in the fourth quarter to make it a one-possession game. While the Golden Eagles are just 2-2 SU on the season, they have covered in each of their four games. They'll look to make it 5-for-5 against North Texas. ... Marshall picked up a road win in overtime at Kent State, 36-29. It was a bad beat for some (see below).
-- In the Mid-American Conference, Toledo continues to make noise. They're already in the midst of a historic season, beating two Power 5 Conference teams in the same year for the first time. Now, they roughed up Arkansas State by a 37-7 score to improve to 2-0-1 ATS. The 'under' has hit in each of the three games for the Rockets heading into their clash with Ball State in Muncie next Saturday. ... Ohio was stunned 27-24 with :30 remaining in regulation in their game at Minnesota. The Bobcats still managed to cover, improving to 4-0 ATS. ... Central Michigan put up a good fight at Michigan State before the No. 2 Spartans pulled away for a 30-10 win. Still, the Chips fired up for their fourth cover in as many tries.
-- Wyoming entered the season with high aspirations, but they have been one of the worst teams in FBS. The Cowboys have lost all four of their games to date, and they're 0-3 SU/ATS in Laramie after a 38-28 loss to New Mexico. They'll go cross-country to Appalachian State next weekend.
-- Many casual fans might not be familiar with Georgia Southern, but they're a good team from top to bottom. They won 44-20 at Idaho to cover for the third consecutive game. ... Louisiana-Monroe was unable to score at Alabama, but their defense did enough to cover in a 34-0 setback. They'll look for better results against Georgia Southern. ULM has covered back-to-back games and the 'under' is 2-0 in the past two.
Bad Beats
There were plenty of bad beats across the nation on Saturday:
-- Southern Mississippi pulled to within eight at 36-28 with 6:55 to go in regulation at Nebraska. However, there were no more scores, leaving 'over' (64.5) bettors with a tough, losing ticket.
-- 'Over' (45) bettors were feeling good with 42 total points after three quarters in the UCF-South Carolina game, but they received just thee points in the final quarter, and were lucky to get the push at 2:53 left in the game.
-- Middle Tennessee moneyline bettors were sunk by a 51-yard field goal with 2:09 left in regulation at Illinois, although the Blue Raiders did hang on for a cover.
-- For the second straight week, Texas had a special teams miscue to cost them a victory, or chance at victory. Last week they missed an extra point in the waning moments of a 45-44 loss to California. This weekend they killed moneyline bettors, and those getting 2 1/2 points, when their punter dropped the snap, whiffed and had a minus-6 yard punt. It put OK State in prime position to win the game in regulation with a field goal.
-- As mentioned, Ohio looked primed and ready to pick up a big win for those who took the chance on them on the moneyline. However, Minnesota dashed those dreams with a touchdown run with 30 seconds remaining in regulation.
-- The Marshall-Kent State game was full of bad beats. 'Under' (46.5) bettors were disappointed when Kent State booted a field goal with 4:55 left in regulation to force overtime. Overtime was costly to Kent State bettors, too, who were covering for the entire game until double-overtime. Marshall scored a touchdown with the extra points to go up seven, and then Kent State was unable to match them, sending the Herd to an improbable cover for those laying 6 1/2 points.
-- Tennessee bettors were stunned when Florida struck for a 63-yard touchdown pass with just 1:26 remaining in regulation to give the Gators their 11th straight win over the Volunteers. 'Under' (50.5) bettors were also crushed on the very same play, as the game finished with 55 points.
-- Texas Tech moneyline bettors couldn't believe their misfortune when TCU had a deflection touchdown reception in the back of the end zone with :23 left in regulation, giving the Horned Frogs an amazing 55-52 victory.
September 27, 2015
Overall Notes
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 51-8
Against the Spread 33-25-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 36-23
Against the Spread 20-38-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-27-3
The largest underdog to win straight up
East Carolina (+10, ML +330) vs. Virginia Tech, 35-28
Utah (+10, ML +300) at Oregon, 62-20
The largest favorite to cover
Baylor (-33) vs. Rice, 70-17
Top 25 Notes
-- Everything went according to plan for everyone in the Associated Press' Top 10, and most everyone in the Top 25. It almost wasn't the case, as Texas Christian needed late heroics to hold off Texas Tech in a Lone Star State shootout, 55-52. In fact, it was a bad beat for some (see below). ... After TCU managed to win in the closing seconds, that pushed the Top 10 teams to a 9-0 SU record, although they were just 3-6 ATS. The only Top 10 teams to cover were Baylor (-33 vs. Rice), Notre Dame (-28.5) vs. Massachusetts and UCLA (-1) at Arizona. ... One of the most shocking results of the weekend came in Eugene. What appeared to be one of the better matchups on paper coming in turned into be anything but that. Utah (+10, ML +300) turned it on in the second quarter, and then ran away with a 28-point third-quarter blitzkreig to stun Oregon and the Pac-12 and serve notice to the rest of the conference that the Utes are for real. ... Georgia Tech looked like one of the more impressive offenses in the nation through the first two games, but looks can be deceiving against cupcakes as opposed to quality foes. The Yellow Jackets have dominated against the number against Duke in recent years, but it was the home dog Blue Devils (+7.5, ML +260) coming through with a 34-20 victory.
-- Notre Dame looks like they're going to be just fine despite several injuries at key positions. They lost QB Malik Zaire (ankle) to a a season-ending injury two weeks ago, but after convincing wins against Ga. Tech and UMass, averaging 46.0 points per game in the process, the Irish will be just fine with DeShone Kizer under center. The Irish have now covered three of their four games heading into Clemson next Saturday.
-- After an impressive win at Virginia Tech to open the season, Ohio State remains unbeaten but they are having some offensive issues. Ohio State was a little better than last week, taking care of Western Michigan by a 38-12 score. Still, the Buckeyes have failed to cover their past three games, averaging just 32.0 PPG. They have been favored by 33.5 or more in each of the outings, so it's no surprise they're 0-3 ATS during the span and the 'under' is also 0-3 during the stretch.
-- Georgia ran over FCS Southern in its final tuneup before a showdown with Alabama next Saturday. Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Chubb ran for 131 and two touchdowns, while adding a TD through the air, and Sony Michel also found the end zone twice.
-- Mississippi had a bit of a hangover, getting all they could handle from a sturdy defensive club from Vanderbilt. Ole Miss had 43 or more points in each of their first three games, all covers and overs, but the Rebs managed just 27 points and never threatened to cover the 27-point number. The 'over' (53) was also never threatened.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- It was a so-so day for the Atlantic Coast Conference. One team flying under most people's radar is North Carolina State. They rolled to a 63-13 win at South Alabama, running their record to 4-0 SU/ATS. We'll get a much better idea about the Wolfpack next weekend when Louisville pays a visit to the Triangle. ... Virginia Tech slipped and slided in the rain at East Carolina, falling 35-28 at Dowdy-Ficklen. The Hokies are 2-2 SU/ATS, but the one thing consistent has been the 'over', which is 4-0. ... Boston College continues to use strong defense to get the job done. The Eagles took care of Northern Illinois by a 17-14 score. Most will remember the Huskies took No. 1 Ohio State to the mat last week. The under is 3-0 for Boston College this season.
-- Northwestern rebounded with a hard-fought 24-19 win over Ball State, as the 'under' is now 4-0 for the Wildcats. The 19 points allowed were actually more than the first three games (16 total points) combined. ... Rutgers has had a ton of off-field issues, but they did well enough to knock out a 27-14 win against Kansas. However, they failed to cover for the third straight game, and the under is now 2-0 in the past two. ... Michigan won for the third straight game, posting a 31-0 win against Brigham Young. It was the fourth 'under' for the Wolverines in as many games. ... Indiana held on for a 31-24 win at Wake Forest, earning their third consecutive cover. The total hit right on the number, and the over is now 3-0-1 for the Hoosiers heading into their showdown at 'The Rock' next weekend against Ohio State.
-- West Virginia looked awfully fresh coming off a bye, spanking Maryland by a 45-6 score to easy cover a 17-point number. West Virginia had been 0-8 ATS in their past eight games after a bye, so it goes to show you can't always depend on historical trends. ... Texas continues to find new ways to lose, dropping a 30-27 game against Oklahoma State. See the bad beats section below for more info. ... Texas Tech slipped up 55-52 in the final seconds against TCU, but they have covered in three straight games, and they're 3-0-1 ATS in four games overall.
-- In five conference battles in the Pac-12, it was the road team going 5-0 SU/ATS. The only Pac-12 team to win was Colorado, who pounded FCS Nicholls State by a 48-0 count. .. USC bounced back nicely with a thumping of Arizona State, 42-14. It was 21-0 with the Sun Devils on the USC 1 late in the first half. Instead of poking it in to close the game to 21-7, USC scooped up a fumble and ran back all the way for a 28-0 score. They then scooped up a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, leading to a second touchdown in the final minute. Instead of going to half down 21-7, Todd Graham's group had a dumpster fire on its hands, down 35-0. Sparky could never recover. The Sun Devils are now 0-4 ATS this season, and the 'under' has hit in each of their games. ... California went to Washington and covered as a slight favorite, hanging on for a 30-24 win. UCLA was also a slight road favorite, and they blew the doors off of Arizona despite the return of LB Scooby Wright. It was UCLA's first over in four tries.
-- Florida continued its win streak against Kentucky last week, and they won for the 11th consecutive time against Tennessee in a thrilling game in The Swamp Saturday. See the bad beats section for more details. ... Speaking of bad beats, Texas A&M stunned Arkansas by a 28-21 count in overtime to cover a six-point spread. ... Auburn was tripped up for the second consecutive week, falling to 0-2 in the SEC West after their 17-9 setback to Mississippi State. They're also 0-4 ATS in four games this season.
Mid-Major Report
-- ECU scored the signature win for the American Athletic Conference against Va. Tech, and that overshadowed the loss of SMU against FCS James Madison. Chad Morris' group continues to score points, posting 45 in the loss. But the Mustangs still need to learn how to play defense. ... UCF is also a train wreck, falling 31-14 at South Carolina. The Golden Knights slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS, and the 'under' is now 3-0-1. ... Houston crushed Texas State by a 59-14 count, actually pushing on the total at most shops. It was the second straight cover for the Cougars, and the over is now 2-0-1.
-- Florida Atlantic picked up its first win of the season at Charlotte, improving to 2-0 ATS in two road outings. ... Southern Mississippi went to Lincoln and lost to Nebraska, but they made a spirited comeback in the fourth quarter to make it a one-possession game. While the Golden Eagles are just 2-2 SU on the season, they have covered in each of their four games. They'll look to make it 5-for-5 against North Texas. ... Marshall picked up a road win in overtime at Kent State, 36-29. It was a bad beat for some (see below).
-- In the Mid-American Conference, Toledo continues to make noise. They're already in the midst of a historic season, beating two Power 5 Conference teams in the same year for the first time. Now, they roughed up Arkansas State by a 37-7 score to improve to 2-0-1 ATS. The 'under' has hit in each of the three games for the Rockets heading into their clash with Ball State in Muncie next Saturday. ... Ohio was stunned 27-24 with :30 remaining in regulation in their game at Minnesota. The Bobcats still managed to cover, improving to 4-0 ATS. ... Central Michigan put up a good fight at Michigan State before the No. 2 Spartans pulled away for a 30-10 win. Still, the Chips fired up for their fourth cover in as many tries.
-- Wyoming entered the season with high aspirations, but they have been one of the worst teams in FBS. The Cowboys have lost all four of their games to date, and they're 0-3 SU/ATS in Laramie after a 38-28 loss to New Mexico. They'll go cross-country to Appalachian State next weekend.
-- Many casual fans might not be familiar with Georgia Southern, but they're a good team from top to bottom. They won 44-20 at Idaho to cover for the third consecutive game. ... Louisiana-Monroe was unable to score at Alabama, but their defense did enough to cover in a 34-0 setback. They'll look for better results against Georgia Southern. ULM has covered back-to-back games and the 'under' is 2-0 in the past two.
Bad Beats
There were plenty of bad beats across the nation on Saturday:
-- Southern Mississippi pulled to within eight at 36-28 with 6:55 to go in regulation at Nebraska. However, there were no more scores, leaving 'over' (64.5) bettors with a tough, losing ticket.
-- 'Over' (45) bettors were feeling good with 42 total points after three quarters in the UCF-South Carolina game, but they received just thee points in the final quarter, and were lucky to get the push at 2:53 left in the game.
-- Middle Tennessee moneyline bettors were sunk by a 51-yard field goal with 2:09 left in regulation at Illinois, although the Blue Raiders did hang on for a cover.
-- For the second straight week, Texas had a special teams miscue to cost them a victory, or chance at victory. Last week they missed an extra point in the waning moments of a 45-44 loss to California. This weekend they killed moneyline bettors, and those getting 2 1/2 points, when their punter dropped the snap, whiffed and had a minus-6 yard punt. It put OK State in prime position to win the game in regulation with a field goal.
-- As mentioned, Ohio looked primed and ready to pick up a big win for those who took the chance on them on the moneyline. However, Minnesota dashed those dreams with a touchdown run with 30 seconds remaining in regulation.
-- The Marshall-Kent State game was full of bad beats. 'Under' (46.5) bettors were disappointed when Kent State booted a field goal with 4:55 left in regulation to force overtime. Overtime was costly to Kent State bettors, too, who were covering for the entire game until double-overtime. Marshall scored a touchdown with the extra points to go up seven, and then Kent State was unable to match them, sending the Herd to an improbable cover for those laying 6 1/2 points.
-- Tennessee bettors were stunned when Florida struck for a 63-yard touchdown pass with just 1:26 remaining in regulation to give the Gators their 11th straight win over the Volunteers. 'Under' (50.5) bettors were also crushed on the very same play, as the game finished with 55 points.
-- Texas Tech moneyline bettors couldn't believe their misfortune when TCU had a deflection touchdown reception in the back of the end zone with :23 left in regulation, giving the Horned Frogs an amazing 55-52 victory.
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