NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 24 - Monday, September 28)

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's games
Steelers (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)-- Pitt gets RB Bell back from 2-game suspension just in time to face St Louis defense that allowed 182 rushing yards in terrible loss at Washington last week. Rams are 2-6 last two years in games where spread was 3 or less points- they lost three of last four vs Steelers, with all four games decided by 10+ points. Since '07, Pitt is 15-24 vs spread in non-divisional road tilts- they're 13-6 since '13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Steelers are 13-25 on third down so far, with seven plays of 20+ yards on 3rd down. Under is 10-7 in Steeler road games since '13. Rams badly need a RB (Mason/Gurley) to become a playmaker.

Chargers (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)-- Minnesota got Peterson untracked (134 rushing yards, 58 receiving) in win last week; Vikings are 12-6 since '12 in games where spread was 3 or less. San Diego heads east for 2nd week in row; Bolts are 2-4 at Minnesota, with last win in '93- they are 12-7-1 as road underdogs since '12, 8-13-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers trailed first two games by 11-8 points at half, but won opener after rallying back from 21-3 deficit. Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Viking home games. Former Charger coach Turner is now OC in Minnesota. San Diego turned ball over three times in both games thus far.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Texans (0-2)-- In two losses, Houston dropped back to pass 111 times, ran ball only 44, not a good ratio; they're 8-33 on third down, have been outscored 37-12 in 1st half of games. Mallett was better last week than Hoyer was in opener, but still completed less than half his passes. Texans are 6-4-1 as home faves since 2011. Tampa Bay is 6-3 as road dog under Smith after upset win last week in Superdome; since '08, Bucs are 16-11-1 as non-divisional road underdogs. Bucs are just 8-28 on 3rd down; they lost TE Seferien-Jenkins, which will hamper passing game. Texans had very high expectations; this is a must win for them.

Eagles (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Gang Green is first team since '92 Steelers to force ten turnovers (+8) in first two games; Philly opened -2.5 but lined moved five points after Monday nite game. Eagles won last nine series games, with six of last eight wins by 7+ points. Jets are 1-6 since '11 in game following an upset win. Philly is 20-10 as a road dog, since '07, but Murray has 11 yards on 21 carries so far-- Sam Bradford is now 18-32-1 as an NFL QB, Eagles are 5-23 on 3rd down. Eagles have not scored first half TD yet (outscored 26-3 in 1st half); they have five turnovers, only three TDs. AFC East teams are 4-1-1 vs spread outside division, NFC East teams are 1-3.

Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)-- Brees has bruised rotator cuff, huge problem for a Saints squad that allowed 9.6/8.1 ypa in first two games, losing at home to rookie QB last week. Carolina won four of last six series games, winning last three here by 8-4-31 points. Six of last eight series totals were 44+. Divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread so far in NFL this season. Since '09, Saints are 4-10-1 as dogs on road. Carolina is 8-2-2 in last dozen games as home favorite, 9-2 in last 11 division games as HF. Panthers held first two foes to 50% (49-98) passing, 8-31 on third down. Saints lost field position battle in first two games, by 8 yards in each game.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Patriots (2-0)-- Since 2012, Pats are 1-8 as double digit fave; they are 26-19 as favorite since '09, and won six in row vs Jaguars, with last series loss in '98 playoffs. Jax lost last six visits here, with five losses by 11+ points-- they're 4-7-1 as double digit dogs under Bradley. Patriots scored eight TDs on 21 drives to start season; they've also allowed 813 yards, seven TDs in two games- hard to cover huge spread with porous defense. Jags are just 8-26 on 3rd down, scored a lone FG in second half of two games, but they outgained first two opponents, so thats good sign. New England covered four of its last five games before its bye.

Bengals (2-0) @ Ravens (0-2)-- Cincy won four of last five series games, but lost four of last five visits here, winning 23-16 in LY's opener. Bengals gained 7.9/8.0 ypa in two meetings LY; since '07, they're 18-4-1 as underdog of 3 or less points. Cincy is +3 in turnovers (5-2), +6 in sacks (6-0), scoring seven TD in 21 drives to start season. Ravens were 6-24 on third down in opening losses by 6-4 points; they're 9-1 in last 10 home openers (7-3 vs spread), 8-3 as faves in home openers- they had three TDs, one FG in seven red zone drives vs Cincy LY, getting swept by 7-3 points. Sine 2007, Ravens are 7-13-1 as home faves in divisional games.

Raiders (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)-- McCown was cleared to practice, will start here for Cleveland; they've won six of last eight games vs Oakland, winning last three at home by 6-3-10 points. Raiders lost four of last five road openers, losing last two by total of nine points- they're 5-2 as underdog in road openers. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-4-1 vs spread so far this season. Oakland defense allowed seven TDs, six FG tries on 22 drives this season; last two years, Oakland is 7-3 as non-divisional road underdog. Since 2008, Browns are 7-15-2 as a home favorite; since '10, they're 9-14-2 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites.

Colts (0-2) @ Titans (1-1)-- This is home opener for QB Mariota; Titans covered seven of last eight as underdog in home openers, but are just 3-10-1 as home dog overall the last three years. Tennessee has six TDs on its seven red zone drives, a good sign; they faced neophyte QB in each of first two games, step up in class here vs Luck, but Colts turned ball over eight times, have only three TDs in first two games- they're 0-2 for 3rd time in last five years, but 12-1 in last 13 games vs Titans, winning last seven, four by 8+ points. Indy won last three visits here by 6-3-7 points; since '08, Colts are 19-9-2 as road favorites. Indy traveling on short week, are -7 in turnovers already.

Falcons (2-0) @ Cowboys (2-0)-- New Dallas QB Weeden is 5-16 as NFL starter; 20 of 21 games were with Cleveland. Fully expect Cowboys to run ball, as Bryant, Witten both hurt; since '10, Pokes are 13-27 vs spread at home, with dogs 30-10. Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter of both but won first two games anyway; Falcons lost four of last five visits to Dallas (won n '03); their last visit was in '09. Last 2+ years, Dallas is 10-5 in games with spread of 3 or less points- Atlanta is 5-10 in its games like that. Romo hadn't been practicing on Wednesdays; Weeden has had more reps with first team offense than most QBs would've in his situation. Under is 7-2 in last nine Atlanta road games.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)-- Arizona is 14-3 SU at home under Arians, 8-2-1 as a home favorite; they scored 79 points in first two games, with 10 TDs on 19 drives, and thats with an even turnover ratio- they're 10-19 on third down, outscored foes 37-12 in second half. Cardinals are 2-9 in last 11 games vs 49ers, going 2-4 in last six played here- they had only one TD in five red zone drives vs SF LY. Last week, Redbirds ran opening kick back for TD, later scored defensive TD. Niners are 2-5-1 in last eight games as road underdog; favorites are 12-4-1 vs spread in their last 17 road games. Since '10, 49ers are 6-9 vs spread in division road games.

Bears (0-2) @ Seahawks (0-2)-- Clausen (1-10 as NFL starter) gets start here, just his second start since 2010. Bears allowed 79 points in first two games;foes have 10 TDs on 16 drives- they also allowed defensive TD/KR score. Since '11, Bears are 8-14-1 as road underdogs, Seattle is 0-3 since last home game; they held lead in 4th quarter in all three games. Chancellor ended holdout, will bolster Seattle's D that allowed 11 pass plays of 20+ yards in first two games, 2nd-most in NFL. Seahawks won/covered last six home openers; under is 11-2-1 in last 14. Seattle is 6-5 as HF last three seasons. Over is 18-6 in Chicago road games last three years.

Bills (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1)-- Both teams off disappointing losses after promising wins in opener. Home side won six of last eight series games; Bills won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four visits here. Miami is 7-12 in last 19 tries as favorite of 3 or less points; they won last three home openers-- since 2007, Miami is 10-24 vs spread as home favorite (5-7 last 12 in division). Bills are 3-8 in last 11 road openers (Ryan lost his last four with Jets); since '11, Buffalo is 10-17-1 as a road dog, 5-7 in AFC East games. Dolphins trailed both games at the half so far; they've run ball only 34 times for 116 yards, while dropping back to pass 83 times, not a good ratio.

Broncos (2-0) @ Lions (0-2)-- Detroit is 0-2, Stafford is already banged-up and the Packers are already two games ahead in NFC North. Detroit won 45-10/44-7 in last two games with Denver, after losing six of first nine series games. Broncos are 3-2 in Motor City. Lions scored 36 ppg in winning last four home openers; they are 16-7-1 vs spread in last 24 home openers, 8-1-1 in last ten as favorite- over is 5-0 in their last five home openers. Broncos scored a defensive TD and allowed one in both games so far; they averaged 3.4/5.0 ypa, not good, but seven takeaways (+5) erased all that. Lions ran ball 32 times in first two games, dropped back 85; with a banged-up QB, they need to run ball better.


Monday's game
Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)-- Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they're 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they're 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC' last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3

The Cardinals don't pass up the chance to score six points, going a perfect 7-for-7 when it comes to scoring touchdowns inside the red zone this season.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 45)

Falcons’ pass protection vs. Cowboys’ poor pass rush

Kyle Shanahan has done a good job implementing his new offensive schemes in Atlanta, and the most obvious improvement is that quarterback Matt Ryan is staring at the stadium roof a lot less through the first two games of the season.

After allowing 44 sacks in 2013 and 31 last season, the Falcons have given up only three sacks and watched Ryan get hit 11 times in his 85 total dropbacks in 2015. Atlanta is throwing far less, 59.29 percent compared to 64.06 percent of the time in 2014, but when he does have the ball in the pocket, he’s got ample time to find his deep threats – more specifically WR Julio Jones.

Dallas’ defense is once again toothless when it comes to the pass rush. The Cowboys struggled to get pressure on opposing passers last season, recording only 28 sacks and 48 QB hurries in 2014, and are on a similar path with only two sacks and two hurries through two games this fall.

Losing rookie DE Randy Gregory to injury was bigger than people think, and Dallas hasn’t really faced a deep threat like Ryan-Jones this season (both Giants and Eagles throw quick, short passes). Dallas’ weak secondary will be tested – and likely exposed – if the pass rush keeps getting pushed around.

Daily Fantasy Watch: QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones


Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Bills’ penalty problems vs. Dolphins’ defensive line

The Bills have a discipline issue and head into Week 2 of the season as the most penalized team in the league, with 25 flags flying for a grand total of 253 penalty yards against. Buffalo was whistled for 14 infractions in the loss to New England last weekend, handing the Patriots 140 free gains.

The biggest culprit has been the Bills’ protection, which has been flagged for six offensive holding penalties in two games – almost double the league average. Those holds are a killer for a run-heavy offense, leading to a 34.62 third down percentage in the first two weeks.

Miami’s defense has a lot to prove in Week 3, coming off an embarrassing waxing at the hands of the Jaguars. The Dolphins defensive line, which was supposed to be the nastiest in the NFL after adding Ndamukong Suh this offseason, has a big goose egg in the sacks column after two games.

If anything, the Fins’ formidable front line has caused a lot of clutching and grabbing from opposing pass protectors, creating six offensive holding calls this year. Overall, Miami has done a good job drawing penalties, with foes forcing 20 flags to fly for a total of 181 yards in the Dolphins favor – sixth most in the league.

Daily Fantasy Watch: Miami defense


San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 44)

Niners’ red-zone defense vs. Cardinals’ red-zone offense

With Carson Palmer back under center, the Cardinals have picked up where they left off before their veteran QB went down with a knee injury last November. Arizona is 2-0 and leads the league in points scored, averaging 39.5 per game.

The Cardinals don’t pass up a chance to strike pay dirt, going a perfect 7-for-7 in the red zone in the first two games. And we’re not talking field goals, either. Arizona has scored a touchdown every time it’s entered the 20-yard line, and that’s made bettors happy. Picking up seven instead of three is the reason why the Cards have covered the spread by an average of 16.5 points so far this fall.

San Francisco’s defense is still trying to figure out how to plug all those holes in the dam. The 49ers’ offseason losses are starting to show when push comes to shove, magnified when opponents creep inside the red zone.

The Niners, who held Minnesota to 0-for-1 inside the twenty in Week 1, were blown up by the Steelers last Sunday, with Pittsburgh posting a perfect 5-for-5 inside the red zone – all of which were for touchdowns. This isn’t anything new for San Francisco after allowing teams to pick up six on 61.36 percent of their red-zone chances last season. That ranked fifth worst in the NFL.

Daily Fantasy Watch: QB Carson Palmer, WR Larry Fitzgerald/Jaron Brown, RBs Chris Johnson/David Johnson


Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Broncos’ third-down dependency vs. Lions’ third-down defense

The Broncos offense isn’t what it used to be but is still getting the job done. The run game is failing and Peyton Manning’s dead arm isn’t posing a deep threat anymore, but we’re still talking about Peyton Manning here. The Broncos aren’t moving the chains as easy as past season, using up all three downs to pick up the next set.

Denver boasts a league-high 17 third downs per game – converting only 41.18 percent of those – but that has helped it chew up clock and hog the football for 34:09 per game – almost four more minutes than last season. Manning’s favorite target in those crunch spots is WR Emmanuel Sanders, who has 11 catches for 117 of his total 152 yards and two touchdowns on third down.

Detroit’s defense is forcing 12.5 third downs per game to start the season but has allowed opponents – San Diego and Minnesota – to convert on 52 percent of those, which stands fifth worst in the league heading into Week 3. This stop unit was among the stingiest in the NFL in third-down conversions in 2014, giving up the first down just 37.56 percent of the time.

However, the Lions pass rush has just seven QB hurries and three sacks in 2015 and can’t duplicate the pressure of last year in those blitz situations. Last Sunday, the Vikings moved the chains on seven of their 14 third downs and converted on a fourth-and-1 for a touchdown in the second quarter.

Daily Fantasy Watch: WR Emmanuel Sanders

[Udog]

NFL

Friday, September 25


Brees ruled out for Sunday's date with Panthers

The New Oreleans Saints will be without quarterback Drew Brees for Sunday's game versus the Carolina Panthers, according to head coach Sean Payton.

According to Katherine Terrell of NOLA.com and The Times-Picayune, the Saints will now look to backup Luke McCown.

According to a tweet from Sports Insights, McCown has not fared well against the spread in his career.

Luke McCown is 2-7 ATS in his career as a starter.


Seahawks RB Lynch a game-time decision

Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch will be a game-time decision for Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears, coach Pete Carroll announced.

Lynch is battling a calf ailment and was listed as questionable on Seattle's Friday injury report. Lynch suffered the injury during last Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers.

"He's got a calf that we're working on," Carroll said. "We've been able to condition him some, but we just wanted to make sure and take care of him during the week. He'll run tomorrow, and we'll see if he's OK. It'll go all the way to game day on this one."

Lynch is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry through two games after averaging more than four yards per carry each of the past four years. He has 114 yards and no touchdowns this season.

Strong safety Kam Chancellor is likely to play after ending his lengthy holdout earlier this week. Carroll said Chancellor's snaps will be monitored.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 27

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Sunday's Week 3 NFL betting cheat sheet
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Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month of September, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record. The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in those games.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 44)

* Wideout Julio Jones has been limited in practice this week due to a sore hamstring, but he has been unstoppable in the first two games, scoring twice while tying to the league lead with 22 receptions and ranking second with 276 yards.

* Dallas turned in a superb performance in limiting Philadelphia to 226 yards of total offense and seven yards rushing behind a 14-tackle effort from linebacker Sean Lee, who was named the NFC's Defensive Player of the Week.


Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 45.5)

* The Colts have gone 7-0 straight up and against the spread in the previous seven meetings with the Titans.

* Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota will receive his first taste of AFC South play, as the second overall pick came back to earth following a scintillating four-touchdown performance in the season opener with two fumbles in a 28-14 loss to Cleveland. When asked how he can improve, Mariota matter-of-factly stated that he needed to "keep two hands on the football."


Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 42.5)

* Oakland has lost 11 straight (5-6 ATS) and 19 of its last 20 on the road (9-10-1 ATS).

* The Cleveland Browns turn back to Josh McCown as they search for their second consecutive victory. Cleveland posted a 28-14 triumph over Tennessee last week behind Johnny Manziel, who threw two touchdown passes for the first time in his brief career as McCown was sidelined with a concussion.


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 44.5)

* Andy Dalton enters Week 3 as the only quarterback in the league who has started each of his team's first two games and has yet to be sacked or throw an interception.

* Visiting Baltimore in September has not been a pleasant experience of late. Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record. The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in those games.


Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5, 48.5)

* Blake Bortles could be missing one of his biggest weapons with running back Denard Robinson (knee) questionable, but rookie T.J. Yeldon is ready to step up. The Alabama product took on the extra workload with 25 carries in last week’s 23-20 triumph over Miami and managed 75 yards.

* Tom Brady has yet to throw an interception in a league-high 91 pass attempts and threw for seven touchdowns in leading the Patriots to wins over Pittsburgh and Buffalo to begin the campaign. “He has high expectations and high goals for himself,” New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels told reporters. “He knows that it's going to take a tremendous amount of work to continue performing at the level that he wants to play at, and he deserves a lot of credit for that.”


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-8, 42.5)

* A bit of anomaly for the Saints as quarterback Drew Brees will miss his first game in his 15-year NFL career, meaning Luke McCown has been thrust into the starting role. According to a tweet from Sports Insights, McCown is 2-7 ATS in his NFL career when starting under center.

* The Under has gone 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Carolina between the Saints and Panthers, including 2014 and 2013.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2, 46)

* The Eagles are off to an 0-2 start SU and ATS, have struggled mightily on offense and those problems could be compounded if running back DeMarco Murray is unable to play in the crucial contest. Murray participated in practice Friday but, according to Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer, "has to pass a more strenuous session Saturday".

* New York shut down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts to move to 2-0 and it could have a field day against the Eagles, who are last in the NFL in rushing with just 70 yards in two games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-7, 40.5)

* Jameis Winston has been sacked seven times and lost a fumble in two games, but the offensive line is confident it can protect the young quarterback against Watt and company. “We have a plan,” right tackle Gosder Cherilus told reporters. “Hopefully, the plan will be good enough. If it’s not, we’re going to have to do what we’ve got to do. That’s the game – show up, be at your best, and hopefully your best will be good enough.”

* The Texans are playing their first home game since switching the field at NRG Stadium from natural grass to an artificial surface for the remainder of the season.


San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 44.5)

* The Chargers' primary opponent has been themselves as they have turned the ball over six times - second only to Indianapolis (eight).

* Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is completing 74 percent of his passes (37-for-50) but has thrown for just 384 yards with a touchdown and an interception in two games this season. The second-year quarterback has flourished at home, recording 10 scores (nine passing, one rushing) in his last five starts.


Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (-1, 48)

* The Steelers have led the way in two-point conversions this season, hitting on all three attempts including two last week versus the 49ers. Games with two or more successful 2-point converts are 21-1-1 Over/Under, for a 95.4 percent Over rate. Oh yeah. All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell returns from a two-game suspension Sunday.

* After passing for 297 yards and a touchdown and rushing for a score against Seattle, offseason acquisition Nick Foles took a step backward versus Washington, going 17-of-32 for 150 yards and a TD. The running game has stalled while awaiting the debut of first-round pick Todd Gurley (knee), as receiver Tavon Austin leads the team with 57 rushing yards.


San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 45)

* After rushing for a career-high 168 yards against Minnesota, Carlos Hyde was slowed by a leg contusion and a head injury versus the Steelers, but he is expected to play on Sunday.

* Arizona has traditionally struggled to run the ball but David Johnson showed such a burst during his franchise-best 108-yard kick return for a touchdown last week that coach Bruce Arians stressed that he'd grant the rookie a larger role on Sunday.


Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 41.5)

* Plagued by a nagging hamstring injury, LeSean McCoy returned to practice on Thursday and is prepared to battle both the Dolphins and possible dehydration when he takes the field on Sunday. The electric back rolled up 89 yards on the ground and added three receptions for the second straight week to lead Buffalo, which puts its third-ranked rushing attack (153.5 yards per game) against Miami's 27th-ranked rush defense (142 yards per game).

* The favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings between the two AFC East rivals. Books opened the Dolphins as 2.5-point home favorites, but that is now -2.5.


Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5, 43.5)

* The absences of Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery will surely put more pressure on Matt Forte, who ranks third in the NFL in both rushing (202 yards) and yards from scrimmage (271).

* The Seahawks’ slow start is especially surprising after playing in the last two Super Bowls, as their once-vaunted defense has allowed 61 points through two games. There’s help on the way, as safety Kam Chancellor ended his holdout this week, but it’s unclear whether or not he will play Sunday.


Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

* The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

* Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in a season-opening defeat at San Diego and trailed the entire way against Minnesota as quarterback Matthew Stafford was hit early and often, requiring X-rays on his ribs and chest afterward.

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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 27

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Broncos at Lions
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The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have not looked overly impressive in the young season, but they still have a chance to improve to 3-0 when they visit the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday night. The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

“I’m not quite sure I’ve ever been in one quite like that,” Manning said after Bradley Roby returned a fumble for a touchdown with 27 seconds to play in Denver's great escape against the Chiefs. Playing away from home shouldn't faze the Broncos, who set a league record with their 13th straight division road win last week. Detroit has dropped its first two games - both on the road - and is coming off a lackluster performance in a 26-16 loss at Minnesota a week ago. “We’ve got to be more consistent,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. “We’re going to make sure that we get ourselves headed in the right direction.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Lions as 3.5-point home dogs, but that's down to a field goal. The total opened at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - DE Kenny Anunike (Questionable, knee), LB Lerentee McCray (Questionable, groin), S Omar Bolden (Questionable, foot), DE Derek Wolfe (Elig Week 5, suspension). Lions - QB Matthew Stafford (Questionable, ribs), DT Caraun Reid (Questionable, ankle), LB DeAndre Levy (Doubtful, hip), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Doubtful, hamstring).

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-4.0) - Lions (+2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -3.0

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Broncos were outgained by more than a full yard per play against KC on Thursday Night. They?'ve gained less than four yards per play YTD, ranked No. 32 in total offense. The Lions running game has been non-existent thus far. Leading RB rusher Ameer Abdullah had just six carries for nine yards in the loss at Minnesota."

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): After failing to produce an offensive touchdown in the season opener, Manning threw for three scores and 256 yards to join Brett Favre as the only quarterbacks with more than 70,000 passing yards. The biggest concern for Denver is getting a dismal ground game untracked - running back C.J. Anderson has rushed for only 56 yards on 24 carries and the Broncos ranked 29th in the league with an average of 65.0 yards per game. The Broncos' defense has played superbly in the first two games, registering seven sacks and four interceptions while leading the league with an average of 133.5 passing yards allowed.

ABOUT THE LIONS (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in a season-opening defeat at San Diego and trailed the entire way against Minnesota as quarterback Matthew Stafford was hit early and often, requiring X-rays on his ribs and chest afterward. Calvin Johnson was invisible in the opener before hauling in 10 catches for 83 yards and a TD last week, but rookie running back Ameer Abdullah was held to nine yards after an impressive 94-yard rushing performance in his NFL debut. Plugging the void left by tackle Ndamukong Suh has been a huge issue for the Lions, who are yielding 147.5 yards on the ground after leading the league (69.3) last season.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 17-3-1 in Broncos last 21 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 13-3 in Lions last 16 games following a ATS loss.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-four percent of users are backing the visiting Broncos.

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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 27


September a bad month to visit Baltimore, Flacco

Visiting Baltimore in September has not been a pleasant experience of late and it'll be the Cincinnati Bengals who get to taste the Ravens on their home turf Sunday.

Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in the month, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record and the Ravens have gone 10-4 ATS in those games.

The one loss among those 14 September games, you ask? Why that would be the Bengals in Week 1 last season. Cincy triumphed 23-16, covering as 1-point road dogs.

This time around, the Ravens are 2.5-point home favorites.


Road games have meant trouble for the Raiders

The Oakland Raiders head into Cleveland as losers of 11-straight road games and 19 of their last 20.

Raiders backers haven't felt the sting as badly with Oakland going 5-6 against the spread in its last last 11 and 9-10-1 ATS in those last 20 road dates.

Books opened the Browns as 4-point home favorites but that has since moved to -3.5.


Titans might be the cure for what ails the Colts

It hasn't been the best start for the Indianapolis Colts, but a visit the the Tennessee Titans might be just what the doctor ordered for both the Colts and their backers.

Indy, which is 0-2 straight up and against the spread, has gone 7-0 both SU and ATS in the last seven meetings between the two AFC South rivals, three of those coming in Tennessee.

Books opened the Titans as 3.5-point home underdogs for the meeting, but that has come down to +3 at the time of writing.


Eagles WR Huff questionabe with hamstring injury

While running back DeMarco Murray is expected to play against the New York Jets on Sunday, wide receiver Josh Huff's status is in doubt.

Huff was a surprise addition to the injury report Saturday, listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Huff has four catches for 39 yards this season.

Murray also is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play despite missing part of practice Wednesday and all of Thursday with a hamstring injury suffered Wednesday.

Murray, the NFL's rushing leader last season with 1,845 yards, has been held to just 11 yards on 21 attempts this season for the winless Eagles.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 28

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs at Packers
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The Over has gone 8-2 in the Green Bay Packers' last 10 games in the month of September.

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 49)

After absorbing a crushing last-second home loss to future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, the Kansas City Chiefs must try to bounce back against arguably the NFL's best quarterback at one of the league's toughest venues. Awaiting the Chiefs on Monday night are Aaron Rodgers and the unbeaten Green Bay Packers, who have won nine in a row at Lambeau Field.

“We have a home-field advantage that’s growing," Rodgers said. "We’ve started fast as well at home the last couple of years, so we’ve been able to make teams one-dimensional on the other side.” Green Bay must avoid an emotional letdown after scoring 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to knock off the Seattle Seahawks 27-17 last Sunday. Kansas City was on the verge of a 2-0 start before allowing a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute, with the game-winner coming on the return of a fumble by Jamaal Charles. "It was pretty simple," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. "Five turnovers and 70 yards on penalties. ... We'll feel this one."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Pack as 6.5-point home faves. The total is up to 49 from the opening 48.

INJURY REPORT: Chiefs - DB Sean Smith (Eligible Week 4, suspension). Packers - WR Davante Adams (Probable, ankle), RB Eddie Lacy (Questionable, ankle), T Bryan Bulaga (Early November, knee), DT Letroy Guion (Eligible Week 4, suspension).

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 53 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the south end zone at around five miles per hour.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-2.5) + Packers (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -5.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "KC was in position to win and cover against Denver despite a -3 turnover margin, but the final Jamaal Charles fumble doomed their chance to go 2-0. Relatively conservative head coach Mike McCarthy, facing nemesis Seattle in an early season statement game still chose to punt or kick on 4th and 1 on three separate occasions."

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Charles had a big game with 125 yards on 21 carries but it went for naught after his second lost fumble of the game snatched a victory away from Kansas City, which has gone 18 consecutive games without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Quarterback Alex Smith followed up a strong opener with two interceptions against Denver and has yet to establish much of a rapport with Jeremy Maclin, who had nine catches for 109 yards in the first two games. The Chiefs are tied for second in the league with eight sacks and must try to exploit the absence of offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, who will miss his second game in a row.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Rodgers lost his top target when wideout Jordy Nelson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and saw Eddie Lacy exit last week's game with an ankle injury, but the starting running back returned to practice on a limited basis Friday and would not rule out playing. James Starks fills in admirably for Lacy, rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries against Seattle and may need another big effort with wide receiver Davante Adams also questionable with an ankle injury. Rodgers has averaged only 219 yards passing in the first two games but has five scoring passes versus zero interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Packers last 10 games in September.
* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Week 3.
* Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last six Monday games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of bettors are backing the Packers.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 28


Packers slumping ATS on Monday Night Football

The Green Bay Packers head into Monday Night's date with the Kansas City Chiefs 2-0 both straight up and against the spread to begin the 2015 campaign, but the Packers have struggled to cash bet slips in recent Monday Night Football games.

The Pack are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five Monday Night Football games, including losing their past three against the spread.

This time around, Green Bay is pegged as a 6.5-point home favorite with Kansas City in town.


Ben Roethlisberger to miss a minimum of four weeks

According to a report from ESPN's NFL Insider Adam Schefter, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be out for a minimum four weeks with a knee injury suffered against the St. Louis Rams Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Books in bad spot Monday with parlays on Packers, sharps on Chiefs

The Monday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers is rounding out to be a lose/lose scenario for sportsbooks, who suffered another rough week of NFL action.

With plenty of parlay money tied to the Packers and the wiseguys stacking their chips on the Chiefs, the Week 3 finale will be a finishing blow for bookmakers, no matter who wins, loses, or covers Monday.

So what’s the best scenario for books?

“Next week,” says South Point Las Vegas sportsbook director Bert Osborne with a nervous laugh. “Thursday can’t come soon enough.”

“Pick a side. We’re losing either way,” says Osborne, who has plenty of parlay money connected to Green Bay after big-name favorites like the Patriots and Steelers covered, and the late-afternoon games and Sunday nighter all went the way of the betting public. “The snowball just keeps getting bigger.”

South Point Las Vegas opened the Packers as touchdown favorites at home, but that didn’t stay on the board for long as sharp bettors knocked this line off the key number and down to Green Bay -6.5 with money on Kansas City.

“That seven is long gone now. They just ate it up,” Osborne says of the smart bettors.

Online, at Sportsbook.ag, action has trickled down in similar fashion. Peter Childs, their head supervisor of risk management, also opened the home side at -7 at maintained that number for most of the week with the public taking the Cheeseheads and the wiseguys on the Chiefs. However, the flood gates opened up on Kansas City in the early hours of Monday.

“This morning we saw more sharp action come in on the Chiefs, enough sharp action that it forced us off the key number of +7 down to +6.5, which is our current number,” Child tells Covers. “At 6.5 we’re seeing strong support on the Packers. Roughly 70 percent of the action at 6.5 is on the Packers and that might be enough to get us back to -7.”

Sportsbook.ag also has big liability on parlays connected to Green Bay, with heavily-bet teams Pittsburgh, New England, Atlanta, Seattle, Arizona and Denver all coming through as ATS winners Sunday.

“Far more of those open parlays are tied to Packers than the Chiefs,” says Childs. “But at this point, we’re sticking with 6.5 and hoping that sharp action that bet the Chiefs is correct. We’re going to need the Chiefs in a big way.”

As for Monday’s total, Osborne says there hasn’t been the one-sided Over money that you would normally receive for a primetime, standalone game, with most books dealing 48 points as the Packers’ powerful offense takes on the Chiefs sturdy defense.

Childs says about 65 percent of totals action at his book is on the Over, which is par for the course when Aaron Rodger and the Packers play in primetime. They opened the Over/Under at 49 and have been bet up to 49.5 as of Monday afternoon.