The Bum's National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

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LATE GAMES:


San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET Arizona -6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 45 500

Buffalo - 4:25 PM ET Buffalo +1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Miami - Over 43.5 500

Chicago - 4:25 PM ET Chicago +15 500 *****
Seattle - Over 43.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver 0 0th Denver -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Detroit 0 Under 44.5 500 *****

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NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/27/15 )

SUNDAY'S RESULTS: ( 9/27/15 )


*****.........................1 - 2
DOUBLE PLAYS............3 - 4
TRIPLE PLAY................4 - 1 - 0
BLOW OUT...................0 - 1

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 7 - 6 - 1
double play...................................18 - 11
triple play......................................10 - 7 - 1
blow out........................................2 - 1
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 16 - 9 - 1 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................1 - 0
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 2 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 5 - 4
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 4 - 2
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 1
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................0 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 1
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO MONDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 09/28/15

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MNF - Chiefs at Packers

September 27, 2015

Only six teams own a 3-0 record after three weeks of action in the NFL, as the Packers look to join that group with a victory over the Chiefs on Monday night. Green Bay hasn’t started 3-0 since 2011, when Mike McCarthy’s club stormed out of the gate with 13 consecutive wins. Kansas City is playing with plenty of rest after last taking the field 11 days ago, but suffered a crushing home loss to its division rival.

The Chiefs (1-1 straight-up, 1-1 against the spread) cruised past the Texans in Week 1 on the road, setting up a pivotal primetime spot against the rival Broncos. Kansas City jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Denver last Thursday night, trying to snap a six-game losing streak to Denver dating back to Peyton Manning’s arrival in 2012. Manning rallied the Broncos back to tie things up at 24-24 late in the fourth quarter, but Denver shocked Kansas City by returning a Jamaal Charles fumble for a touchdown in the final minute to pull out a 31-24 triumph as three-point underdogs.

Charles racked up 125 yards and a touchdown run, but a critical fumble inside the Denver 10-yard line in the first quarter stymied Kansas City’s first drive, while the second fumble basically lost the game for the Chiefs. The normally cautious Alex Smith was intercepted twice, as the Chiefs turned the ball over five times, while dropping to 0-5 ATS in their last five home openers.

The Packers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) picked up a modicum of revenge last Sunday night, knocking off the Seahawks in an NFC Championship rematch, 27-17 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Green Bay took a 13-3 halftime lead, but Seattle came back to capture a 17-16 advantage in the third quarter. Mason Crosby drilled a pair of field goals in the final quarter, while Aaron Rodgers hooked up with tight end Richard Rodgers for a five-yard score to give Green Bay the lead for good.

Rodgers threw for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but running back Eddie Lacy left the game after suffering a sprained right ankle while carrying the ball three times for nine yards. Lacy’s status is up in the air for Monday night, but back-up James Starks picked up the slack by rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries. Green Bay picked up its 10th straight win at Lambeau Field, while improving to 7-2-1 ATS in this span at home.

The last time these teams hooked up came back in 2011 when the Packers began the season at 13-0. However, Green Bay went into Arrowhead Stadium in December of that season and lost its only game of the regular season, 19-14 as hefty 11 ½-point favorites. Ryan Succop kicked four field goals for the Chiefs, while Kyle Orton led Kansas City to only its sixth victory of 2011 (the Chiefs finished 7-9). The Chiefs are making only their second trip to Lambeau Field since 1991, as Kansas City outlasted Green Bay in overtime, 40-34 in 2003.

The Packers are making their only appearance on Monday night football this season in Week 3, as Green Bay has played under the Monday night lights exactly once in each of the previous five seasons. In 2014, the Packers held off the Falcons as 13 ½-point favorites, 43-37, as Green Bay is 0-3 ATS the last three tries on Monday night football.

The Chiefs own a solid 6-3 ATS record under Andy Reid as a road underdog since 2013, while putting together one of the top performances last season under the Monday night lights. Kansas City destroyed New England as a three-point home underdog in Week 4 of 2014 by a 41-14 count, as the Chiefs have covered four of their last five Monday games since 2010.

The underdogs have dominated through the first two weeks on Monday nights, compiling a 3-0 SU/ATS record. The Jets were the latest ‘dog to cash on a Monday, beating the Colts last week, 20-7 receiving seven points. Not only have the underdogs been successful, but the ‘under’ is a perfect 3-0 with 27 combined points or less scored in two of the three Monday night games.

The ‘over’ cashed in nine of 14 games in Week 3, while four teams scored at least 39 points in victories (Falcons, Patriots, Cardinals, and Bills). Out of those four squads, Atlanta, New England, and Arizona are part of the six teams that exist in the 3-0 group after three weeks.

The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites, as that number is hovering between 6 ½ and 7 at most sportsbooks. The total is set at 49, as Green Bay is 4-2 to the ‘over’ in its last six home games with a total of 49 or higher. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Packers slumping ATS on Monday Night Football

The Green Bay Packers head into Monday Night's date with the Kansas City Chiefs 2-0 both straight up and against the spread to begin the 2015 campaign, but the Packers have struggled to cash bet slips in recent Monday Night Football games.

The Pack are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five Monday Night Football games, including losing their past three against the spread.

This time around, Green Bay is pegged as a 6.5-point home favorite with Kansas City in town.

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Bears deal DE Allen to Panthers

Defensive end Jared Allen was traded to the Carolina Panthers from the Chicago Bears, who receive a conditional draft pick in return.

The teams agreed to the deal Monday pending Allen's physical.

Allen leads the NFL with 134 sacks since 2004 and played for the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings before signing with the Bears prior to the 2014 season.

Allen gives the Panthers a pass-rushing end with Charles Johnson (calf) expected to miss at least one week.

Allen moved to outside linebacker this spring in the Bears' transition to a 3-4 defense under coach John Fox.

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Six teams still perfect against the spread

There are still six NFL teams with a perfect record against the spread with just one game remaining in the Week 3 schedule.

The Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers are all 3-0 ATS through three weeks.

The Green Bay Packers are 2-0 ATS and can move to 3-0 if they are able to cover against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Green Bay is currently a 6-point home favorite.

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Four teams still winless against the spread

It's been a tough start to the season if you have been blindly backing the Ravens, Bears, Lions or Colts, with all three going 0-3 against the spread through three weeks.

In Week 4, the Colts (-8.5 vs. Jacksonville) and the Ravens (-3 at Pittsburgh) will be favorites, while the Bears (+2.5 vs. Oakland) and the Lions (+9.5 at Seattle) will be dogs.

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Books in bad spot Monday with parlays on Packers, sharps on Chiefs

The Monday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers is rounding out to be a lose/lose scenario for sportsbooks, who suffered another rough week of NFL action.

With plenty of parlay money tied to the Packers and the wiseguys stacking their chips on the Chiefs, the Week 3 finale will be a finishing blow for bookmakers, no matter who wins, loses, or covers Monday.

So what’s the best scenario for books?

“Next week,” says South Point Las Vegas sportsbook director Bert Osborne with a nervous laugh. “Thursday can’t come soon enough.”

“Pick a side. We’re losing either way,” says Osborne, who has plenty of parlay money connected to Green Bay after big-name favorites like the Patriots and Steelers covered, and the late-afternoon games and Sunday nighter all went the way of the betting public. “The snowball just keeps getting bigger.”

South Point Las Vegas opened the Packers as touchdown favorites at home, but that didn’t stay on the board for long as sharp bettors knocked this line off the key number and down to Green Bay -6.5 with money on Kansas City.

“That seven is long gone now. They just ate it up,” Osborne says of the smart bettors.

Online, at Sportsbook.ag, action has trickled down in similar fashion. Peter Childs, their head supervisor of risk management, also opened the home side at -7 at maintained that number for most of the week with the public taking the Cheeseheads and the wiseguys on the Chiefs. However, the flood gates opened up on Kansas City in the early hours of Monday.

“This morning we saw more sharp action come in on the Chiefs, enough sharp action that it forced us off the key number of +7 down to +6.5, which is our current number,” Child tells Covers. “At 6.5 we’re seeing strong support on the Packers. Roughly 70 percent of the action at 6.5 is on the Packers and that might be enough to get us back to -7.”

Sportsbook.ag also has big liability on parlays connected to Green Bay, with heavily-bet teams Pittsburgh, New England, Atlanta, Seattle, Arizona and Denver all coming through as ATS winners Sunday.

“Far more of those open parlays are tied to Packers than the Chiefs,” says Childs. “But at this point, we’re sticking with 6.5 and hoping that sharp action that bet the Chiefs is correct. We’re going to need the Chiefs in a big way.”

As for Monday’s total, Osborne says there hasn’t been the one-sided Over money that you would normally receive for a primetime, standalone game, with most books dealing 48 points as the Packers’ powerful offense takes on the Chiefs sturdy defense.

Childs says about 65 percent of totals action at his book is on the Over, which is par for the course when Aaron Rodger and the Packers play in primetime. They opened the Over/Under at 49 and have been bet up to 49.5 as of Monday afternoon.

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Monday, September 28

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 1) at GREEN BAY (2 - 0) - 9/28/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 28

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

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Kansas City @ Green Bay

Game 489-490
September 28, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
135.399
Green Bay
139.976
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+7); Over

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Monday - Sept, 28

Kansas City at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Kansas City: 43-26 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
Green Bay: 15-7 OVER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

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Monday's game
Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)-- Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they're 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they're 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC' last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.

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NFL

Monday, September 28

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs at Packers
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The Over has gone 8-2 in the Green Bay Packers' last 10 games in the month of September.

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 49)

After absorbing a crushing last-second home loss to future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, the Kansas City Chiefs must try to bounce back against arguably the NFL's best quarterback at one of the league's toughest venues. Awaiting the Chiefs on Monday night are Aaron Rodgers and the unbeaten Green Bay Packers, who have won nine in a row at Lambeau Field.

“We have a home-field advantage that’s growing," Rodgers said. "We’ve started fast as well at home the last couple of years, so we’ve been able to make teams one-dimensional on the other side.” Green Bay must avoid an emotional letdown after scoring 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to knock off the Seattle Seahawks 27-17 last Sunday. Kansas City was on the verge of a 2-0 start before allowing a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute, with the game-winner coming on the return of a fumble by Jamaal Charles. "It was pretty simple," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. "Five turnovers and 70 yards on penalties. ... We'll feel this one."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Pack as 6.5-point home faves. The total is up to 49 from the opening 48.

INJURY REPORT: Chiefs - DB Sean Smith (Eligible Week 4, suspension). Packers - WR Davante Adams (Probable, ankle), RB Eddie Lacy (Questionable, ankle), T Bryan Bulaga (Early November, knee), DT Letroy Guion (Eligible Week 4, suspension).

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 53 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the south end zone at around five miles per hour.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-2.5) + Packers (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -5.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "KC was in position to win and cover against Denver despite a -3 turnover margin, but the final Jamaal Charles fumble doomed their chance to go 2-0. Relatively conservative head coach Mike McCarthy, facing nemesis Seattle in an early season statement game still chose to punt or kick on 4th and 1 on three separate occasions."

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Charles had a big game with 125 yards on 21 carries but it went for naught after his second lost fumble of the game snatched a victory away from Kansas City, which has gone 18 consecutive games without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Quarterback Alex Smith followed up a strong opener with two interceptions against Denver and has yet to establish much of a rapport with Jeremy Maclin, who had nine catches for 109 yards in the first two games. The Chiefs are tied for second in the league with eight sacks and must try to exploit the absence of offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, who will miss his second game in a row.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Rodgers lost his top target when wideout Jordy Nelson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and saw Eddie Lacy exit last week's game with an ankle injury, but the starting running back returned to practice on a limited basis Friday and would not rule out playing. James Starks fills in admirably for Lacy, rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries against Seattle and may need another big effort with wide receiver Davante Adams also questionable with an ankle injury. Rodgers has averaged only 219 yards passing in the first two games but has five scoring passes versus zero interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Packers last 10 games in September.
* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Week 3.
* Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last six Monday games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of bettors are backing the Packers.

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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 8:30 PM ET Green Bay -5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Green Bay - Over 47.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/28/15 )

MONDAY'S RESULTS: ( 9/28/15 )


*****.........................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS............2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY................0 - 0 - 0
BLOW OUT...................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 7 - 6 - 1
double play...................................19 - 11
triple play......................................10 - 7 - 1
blow out........................................2 - 1
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 17 - 9 - 1 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................1 - 0
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 2 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 1
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 1
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO THURSDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/01/15