The Bum's National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (473) CINCINNATI@ (474) BALTIMORE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON BALTIMORE using money line in September games
The record is 27 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+23 units)

NFL > (477) INDIANAPOLIS@ (478) TENNESSEE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 21 Wins and 7 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.75 units)

NFL > (471) JACKSONVILLE@ (472) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 13 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.8 units)

NFL > (489) KANSAS CITY@ (490) GREEN BAY | 2015-09-28 20:30:00 - 2015-09-28 20:30:00
Play ON GREEN BAY using money line as a favorite
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.4 units)

NFL > (479) ATLANTA@ (480) DALLAS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON DALLAS using money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.25 units)

NFL > (469) NEW ORLEANS@ (470) CAROLINA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in all lined games
The record is 7 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-17.6 units)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (461) PITTSBURGH@ (462) ST LOUIS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first half in non-conference games
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (463) SAN DIEGO@ (464) MINNESOTA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO ?>in the first half in a road game where the first half total is between 21.5 and 22.5
The record is 12 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-24.3 units)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TOTALS

NFL > (483) CHICAGO@ (484) SEATTLE | 2015-09-27 16:25:00 - 2015-09-27 16:25:00
Play UNDER CHICAGO on the total as a road underdog of 6 to 8 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the since 1992 (+12.8 units)

NFL > (479) ATLANTA@ (480) DALLAS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (473) CINCINNATI@ (474) BALTIMORE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TOP POWERLINES

NFL > (471) JACKSONVILLE @ (472) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: NEW ENGLAND-13.5 BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND-26
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (12.5)

NFL > (469) NEW ORLEANS @ (470) CAROLINA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: CAROLINA-9.5 BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA-11
Edge On: CAROLINA (1.5)

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY @ (466) HOUSTON | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: HOUSTON-6.5 BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON-13
Edge On: HOUSTON (6.5)

NFL > (463) SAN DIEGO @ (464) MINNESOTA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: SAN DIEGO BTB PowerLine: SAN DIEGO1
Edge On: SAN DIEGO (2)

NFL > (475) OAKLAND @ (476) CLEVELAND | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: OAKLAND BTB PowerLine: OAKLAND-3
Edge On: OAKLAND (1)

NFL > (473) CINCINNATI @ (474) BALTIMORE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: BALTIMORE-2.5 BTB PowerLine: BALTIMORE-4
Edge On: BALTIMORE (1.5)

NFL > (479) ATLANTA @ (480) DALLAS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: DALLAS1 BTB PowerLine: DALLAS-12
Edge On: DALLAS (13)

NFL > (461) PITTSBURGH @ (462) ST LOUIS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: PITTSBURGH BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH2
Edge On: PITTSBURGH (3)

NFL > (477) INDIANAPOLIS @ (478) TENNESSEE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: INDIANAPOLIS BTB PowerLine: INDIANAPOLIS8
Edge On: INDIANAPOLIS (5)

NFL > (481) SAN FRANCISCO @ (482) ARIZONA | 2015-09-27 16:05:00 - 2015-09-27 16:05:00
Line: ARIZONA-6.5 BTB PowerLine: ARIZONA-8
Edge On: ARIZONA (1.5)

NFL > (485) BUFFALO @ (486) MIAMI | 2015-09-27 16:25:00 - 2015-09-27 16:25:00
Line: BUFFALO BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO6
Edge On: BUFFALO (9)

NFL > (483) CHICAGO @ (484) SEATTLE | 2015-09-27 16:25:00 - 2015-09-27 16:25:00
Line: SEATTLE-14.5 BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE-26
Edge On: SEATTLE (11.5)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/25/15 )

THURSDAY'S RESULTS: ( 9/25/15 )

*****.........................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS............0 -0
TRIPLE PLAY................1 - 0 - 0
BLOW OUT...................0 - 0


*****.......................................... 6 - 4 - 1
double play...................................15 - 7
triple play......................................6 - 6 - 1
blow out........................................2 - 0
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 12 - 8 - 1 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................1 - 0
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 0 - 1
BLOW OUT..............................
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................0 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 1
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO SUNDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 09/27/15

[Blackbeard]

hello stardust, I havent been on in awhile, was filling out football pool, post#165 is that indicating colts or titans? i mean is Tenn 1-11 vs spread in that?

[StarDust Bum]

yep it sure looks like it..............

NFL > (477) INDIANAPOLIS@ (478) TENNESSEE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL BETTING TRENDS

NFL Football Betting Trends - Sunday - Sept, 27

Pittsburgh at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 8-1 OVER in non-conf games
St Louis: 50-31 OVER in non-conf games

San Diego at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 8-1 OVER in non-conf games
Minnesota: 8-2 ATS off a division game

Tampa Bay at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 2-11 ATS against AFC South division
Houston: 3-11 ATS off a road game

Philadelphia at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 15-5 UNDER in road games off a home loss by 10 or more points
New York: 71-97 ATS off a road game

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 1-8 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Carolina: 26-12 ATS at home off a non-conf game

Jacksonville at New England, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 4-14 ATS in the first half of the season
New England: 36-19 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 UNDER as a road underdog
Baltimore: 6-0 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses

Oakland at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 0-6 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
Cleveland: 39-23 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 10-0 ATS vs division opponents
Tennessee: 2-10 ATS at home

Atlanta at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 4-22 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Dallas: 12-3 ATS as an underdog

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 1-5 ATS off a loss of 10 or more points
Arizona: 12-3 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Chicago at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Chicago: 26-13 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses
Seattle: 6-0 UNDER off a road loss

Buffalo at Miami, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 8-1 UNDER as an underdog
Miami: 6-0 UNDER off a loss of 6 or less points

Denver at Detroit, 8:30 ET
Denver: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival
Detroit: 6-0 UNDER after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
================================================== =====
HILTON CONTEST

We are posting the top five consensus selections from The Super Contest
Formerly known as the Hilton Contest.

5. Ravens -2 1/2 425 Handicappers
4. Steelers -1 1/2 439 Handicappers
3 Bills +3 440 Handicappers.
2. Colts -3 637 Handicappers
1. Panthers -4 1/2 713 Handicappers

The least favored team for this week is the
Saints +4 1/2 with only 46 Handicappers on the Saints

The Leaders in the Hilton Contest with 10 and 0 record through week 2

The Right Reasons
Min, Car, Ind, Aria, GB

Team Dhg
Stl, TB Car, INd GB

The Rxers
SD, Phil, Cle, Dal, Mia

[StarDust Bum]

Week 3 Tip Sheet

September 26, 2015

Eagles at Jets (-2, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia is listed as an underdog for the first time this season following losses to Atlanta and Dallas in its first two games. The Eagles’ offense didn’t accomplish much in a 20-10 home defeat to the Cowboys as seven-point favorite, rushing for just seven yards on 17 carries. DeMarco Murray had a reunion to forget as the former Cowboys’ All-Pro running back gained two yards on 13 carries, moving his season total to 21 yards in two games.

The Jets are 2-0 for the first time since 2011 following Monday’s impressive road underdog victory at Indianapolis, 20-7. New York caused five turnovers, as the Jets have covered five straight games since Week 15 of the 2014 season. The Jets will look to turn their luck around against NFC opponents, losing all four times last season in interconference action against the NFC North. This club struggled in 2014 as a favorite of three points, posting a 1-3 SU/ATS record, including home losses to the Lions and Bears.

Bengals at Ravens (-2 ½, 44 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

These two AFC North rivals are going in opposite directions after only two weeks of action as the Bengals are perfect while the Ravens are winless. One week following a 20-point rout of Oakland, Cincinnati staved off San Diego, 24-19 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites, capturing their fourth straight home opening win. Andy Dalton turned in another solid game for the Bengals, improving his touchdown to interception ratio to 5-0 in two games. Cincinnati pulled off the season sweep of Baltimore last season with both victories coming as a short underdog.

An argument can be made that the Ravens can be 2-0 out of the gate, but Baltimore dropped a pair of close road games to Denver and Oakland to start 0-2 for the first time under John Harbaugh. One week after the Ravens didn’t allow an offensive touchdown, the Raiders lit up Baltimore for four touchdowns in a 37-33 triumph as a six-point underdog. Baltimore has performed well against AFC North opponents as a single-digit favorite the last two seasons, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, while each of the last two home meetings with Cincinnati have gone ‘under’ the total.

Saints at Panthers (-8 ½, 42 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans couldn’t afford any more bad news following an 0-2 start, but its franchise quarterback Drew Brees won’t be playing in their Week 3 matchup at Carolina due to a rotator cuff injury. Brees and the Saints’ offense hasn’t accomplished much in losses to the Cardinals and Buccaneers, scoring 19 points in each defeat, while being limited to less than 19 points in three straight home games since the end of 2014. Luke McCown will be the man under center for New Orleans in place of Brees, making his first start since 2011. The Saints haven’t been a reliable play against division foes recently, putting together a 1-5 ATS record last season, but the lone cover came in a 28-10 victory at Carolina.

The Panthers are shooting for their third straight NFC South title and are looking good so far with a 2-0 start for the second consecutive season. Carolina hasn’t played great competition, beating a pair of AFC South opponents, but limited Jacksonville and Houston to a combined 26 points. Ron Rivera’s team has compiled a 12-6 ATS record the last three seasons inside the NFC South, while five of the six divisional contests in 2014 finished ‘under’ the total.

Colts (-3 ½, 45 ½) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST

Indianapolis overcame an 0-2 start to claim the AFC South title in 2014, as the Colts are sitting in the same predicament following two weeks. Chuck Pagano’s team hasn’t looked in sync in defeats to the Bills and Jets the first two games, putting up a total of 21 points, while quarterback Andrew Luck has been intercepted five times. The Colts have won 13 consecutive games against AFC South competition, including six straight victories on the road. Luck is unbeaten against Tennessee in six career games, while the Colts outscored Titans, 68-27 in two blowouts last season.

Tennessee is one of five teams that hasn’t played a home game yet this season, while splitting the first two contests at Tampa Bay and Cleveland. The Titans dominated the Buccaneers in Marcus Mariota’s pro debut, but Tennessee fell behind at Cleveland last week, 21-0 as its rally came up short in a 28-14 defeat. Ken Whisenhunt’s club finished 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS at LP Field in 2014 with the only victory coming against Jacksonville. This is a big stretch for Tennessee, who actually plays its next four games at home, with the bye week on deck in Week 4.

Bears at Seahawks (-15, 43 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

The last time Seattle won a game came in the NFC Championship against Green Bay in January, as the Seahawks look to erase an 0-2 start after falling to the Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday night. Seattle rallied from a 13-3 deficit to take a 17-16 advantage heading into the fourth quarter of their conference title rematch with Green Bay, but the Packers scored the final 11 points to grab the win and the cover as 3 ½-point favorites. Pete Carroll’s squad compiled a 2-2-1 ATS record as a double-digit home favorite last season, while the secondary will see a boost with All-Pro safety Kam Chancellor making his season debut after ending his holdout earlier in the week.

The John Fox era has gotten off to a rocky start after starting 0-2 with home losses to the Packers and Cardinals. Arizona lit up Chicago for 48 points, but did it on just 300 yards of offense, while benefiting from a kickoff return for a touchdown and an interception return for a score in the first half. Jay Cutler left the game with a hamstring injury, while his main target Alshon Jeffery also suffered a hamstring pull, as both are expected to be out on Sunday. The Bears closed last season with an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record in their final four road games, but Chicago owns a solid 3-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog since 2010.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's games
Steelers (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)-- Pitt gets RB Bell back from 2-game suspension just in time to face St Louis defense that allowed 182 rushing yards in terrible loss at Washington last week. Rams are 2-6 last two years in games where spread was 3 or less points- they lost three of last four vs Steelers, with all four games decided by 10+ points. Since '07, Pitt is 15-24 vs spread in non-divisional road tilts- they're 13-6 since '13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Steelers are 13-25 on third down so far, with seven plays of 20+ yards on 3rd down. Under is 10-7 in Steeler road games since '13. Rams badly need a RB (Mason/Gurley) to become a playmaker.

Chargers (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)-- Minnesota got Peterson untracked (134 rushing yards, 58 receiving) in win last week; Vikings are 12-6 since '12 in games where spread was 3 or less. San Diego heads east for 2nd week in row; Bolts are 2-4 at Minnesota, with last win in '93- they are 12-7-1 as road underdogs since '12, 8-13-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers trailed first two games by 11-8 points at half, but won opener after rallying back from 21-3 deficit. Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Viking home games. Former Charger coach Turner is now OC in Minnesota. San Diego turned ball over three times in both games thus far.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Texans (0-2)-- In two losses, Houston dropped back to pass 111 times, ran ball only 44, not a good ratio; they're 8-33 on third down, have been outscored 37-12 in 1st half of games. Mallett was better last week than Hoyer was in opener, but still completed less than half his passes. Texans are 6-4-1 as home faves since 2011. Tampa Bay is 6-3 as road dog under Smith after upset win last week in Superdome; since '08, Bucs are 16-11-1 as non-divisional road underdogs. Bucs are just 8-28 on 3rd down; they lost TE Seferien-Jenkins, which will hamper passing game. Texans had very high expectations; this is a must win for them.

Eagles (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Gang Green is first team since '92 Steelers to force ten turnovers (+8) in first two games; Philly opened -2.5 but lined moved five points after Monday nite game. Eagles won last nine series games, with six of last eight wins by 7+ points. Jets are 1-6 since '11 in game following an upset win. Philly is 20-10 as a road dog, since '07, but Murray has 11 yards on 21 carries so far-- Sam Bradford is now 18-32-1 as an NFL QB, Eagles are 5-23 on 3rd down. Eagles have not scored first half TD yet (outscored 26-3 in 1st half); they have five turnovers, only three TDs. AFC East teams are 4-1-1 vs spread outside division, NFC East teams are 1-3.

Saints (0-2) @ Panthers (2-0)-- Brees has bruised rotator cuff, huge problem for a Saints squad that allowed 9.6/8.1 ypa in first two games, losing at home to rookie QB last week. Carolina won four of last six series games, winning last three here by 8-4-31 points. Six of last eight series totals were 44+. Divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread so far in NFL this season. Since '09, Saints are 4-10-1 as dogs on road. Carolina is 8-2-2 in last dozen games as home favorite, 9-2 in last 11 division games as HF. Panthers held first two foes to 50% (49-98) passing, 8-31 on third down. Saints lost field position battle in first two games, by 8 yards in each game.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Patriots (2-0)-- Since 2012, Pats are 1-8 as double digit fave; they are 26-19 as favorite since '09, and won six in row vs Jaguars, with last series loss in '98 playoffs. Jax lost last six visits here, with five losses by 11+ points-- they're 4-7-1 as double digit dogs under Bradley. Patriots scored eight TDs on 21 drives to start season; they've also allowed 813 yards, seven TDs in two games- hard to cover huge spread with porous defense. Jags are just 8-26 on 3rd down, scored a lone FG in second half of two games, but they outgained first two opponents, so thats good sign. New England covered four of its last five games before its bye.

Bengals (2-0) @ Ravens (0-2)-- Cincy won four of last five series games, but lost four of last five visits here, winning 23-16 in LY's opener. Bengals gained 7.9/8.0 ypa in two meetings LY; since '07, they're 18-4-1 as underdog of 3 or less points. Cincy is +3 in turnovers (5-2), +6 in sacks (6-0), scoring seven TD in 21 drives to start season. Ravens were 6-24 on third down in opening losses by 6-4 points; they're 9-1 in last 10 home openers (7-3 vs spread), 8-3 as faves in home openers- they had three TDs, one FG in seven red zone drives vs Cincy LY, getting swept by 7-3 points. Sine 2007, Ravens are 7-13-1 as home faves in divisional games.

Raiders (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)-- McCown was cleared to practice, will start here for Cleveland; they've won six of last eight games vs Oakland, winning last three at home by 6-3-10 points. Raiders lost four of last five road openers, losing last two by total of nine points- they're 5-2 as underdog in road openers. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-4-1 vs spread so far this season. Oakland defense allowed seven TDs, six FG tries on 22 drives this season; last two years, Oakland is 7-3 as non-divisional road underdog. Since 2008, Browns are 7-15-2 as a home favorite; since '10, they're 9-14-2 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites.

Colts (0-2) @ Titans (1-1)-- This is home opener for QB Mariota; Titans covered seven of last eight as underdog in home openers, but are just 3-10-1 as home dog overall the last three years. Tennessee has six TDs on its seven red zone drives, a good sign; they faced neophyte QB in each of first two games, step up in class here vs Luck, but Colts turned ball over eight times, have only three TDs in first two games- they're 0-2 for 3rd time in last five years, but 12-1 in last 13 games vs Titans, winning last seven, four by 8+ points. Indy won last three visits here by 6-3-7 points; since '08, Colts are 19-9-2 as road favorites. Indy traveling on short week, are -7 in turnovers already.

Falcons (2-0) @ Cowboys (2-0)-- New Dallas QB Weeden is 5-16 as NFL starter; 20 of 21 games were with Cleveland. Fully expect Cowboys to run ball, as Bryant, Witten both hurt; since '10, Pokes are 13-27 vs spread at home, with dogs 30-10. Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter of both but won first two games anyway; Falcons lost four of last five visits to Dallas (won n '03); their last visit was in '09. Last 2+ years, Dallas is 10-5 in games with spread of 3 or less points- Atlanta is 5-10 in its games like that. Romo hadn't been practicing on Wednesdays; Weeden has had more reps with first team offense than most QBs would've in his situation. Under is 7-2 in last nine Atlanta road games.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)-- Arizona is 14-3 SU at home under Arians, 8-2-1 as a home favorite; they scored 79 points in first two games, with 10 TDs on 19 drives, and thats with an even turnover ratio- they're 10-19 on third down, outscored foes 37-12 in second half. Cardinals are 2-9 in last 11 games vs 49ers, going 2-4 in last six played here- they had only one TD in five red zone drives vs SF LY. Last week, Redbirds ran opening kick back for TD, later scored defensive TD. Niners are 2-5-1 in last eight games as road underdog; favorites are 12-4-1 vs spread in their last 17 road games. Since '10, 49ers are 6-9 vs spread in division road games.

Bears (0-2) @ Seahawks (0-2)-- Clausen (1-10 as NFL starter) gets start here, just his second start since 2010. Bears allowed 79 points in first two games;foes have 10 TDs on 16 drives- they also allowed defensive TD/KR score. Since '11, Bears are 8-14-1 as road underdogs, Seattle is 0-3 since last home game; they held lead in 4th quarter in all three games. Chancellor ended holdout, will bolster Seattle's D that allowed 11 pass plays of 20+ yards in first two games, 2nd-most in NFL. Seahawks won/covered last six home openers; under is 11-2-1 in last 14. Seattle is 6-5 as HF last three seasons. Over is 18-6 in Chicago road games last three years.

Bills (1-1) @ Dolphins (1-1)-- Both teams off disappointing losses after promising wins in opener. Home side won six of last eight series games; Bills won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four visits here. Miami is 7-12 in last 19 tries as favorite of 3 or less points; they won last three home openers-- since 2007, Miami is 10-24 vs spread as home favorite (5-7 last 12 in division). Bills are 3-8 in last 11 road openers (Ryan lost his last four with Jets); since '11, Buffalo is 10-17-1 as a road dog, 5-7 in AFC East games. Dolphins trailed both games at the half so far; they've run ball only 34 times for 116 yards, while dropping back to pass 83 times, not a good ratio.

Broncos (2-0) @ Lions (0-2)-- Detroit is 0-2, Stafford is already banged-up and the Packers are already two games ahead in NFC North. Detroit won 45-10/44-7 in last two games with Denver, after losing six of first nine series games. Broncos are 3-2 in Motor City. Lions scored 36 ppg in winning last four home openers; they are 16-7-1 vs spread in last 24 home openers, 8-1-1 in last ten as favorite- over is 5-0 in their last five home openers. Broncos scored a defensive TD and allowed one in both games so far; they averaged 3.4/5.0 ypa, not good, but seven takeaways (+5) erased all that. Lions ran ball 32 times in first two games, dropped back 85; with a banged-up QB, they need to run ball better.


Monday's game
Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)-- Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they're 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they're 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC' last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's 2-point trend has Over bettors on high alert

The NFL’s new extra-point rule is forcing teams to take a good, long look at the 2-point conversion this season. It should also have football bettors taking a good, long look at the Over.

With the league pushing the point after touchdown from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, NFL teams are opting to try for the two points – which is still snapped from the two – more often in the first two weeks of the season since the NFL instituted the 2-point conversion in 1994. Heading into Sunday’s Week 3 schedule, teams have attempted 16 2-point conversions, making nine of those, and the league is on pace for 56 2-point conversion attempts – double the amount from last season.

In those seven games in which a team scored a successful 2-point conversion, the Over has gone 4-3 so far in 2015. While that won’t turn heads at the sportsbook, looking back further at the impact of those added two points and an incredible totals trend presents itself.

Since 2003, NFL regular season games in which there were at least one successful 2-point conversion are an astonishing 223-93-3 Over/Under – a 70.5 percent winning clip for Over bettors. Games with two or more successful 2-point converts are 21-1-1 Over/Under, for a 95.4 percent Over rate.

Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, says that while they are aware of the sudden surge in 2-point tries, they have yet to make any adjustments to the way they set their weekly NFL odds.

“We may have to if (NFL teams) start making it a trend,” Simbal tells Covers, who says 2-point conversions will not only impact totals but also have a big impact on so-called “dead numbers” with the pointspread, like two and five.

The one team that is rolling the dice on the 2-point conversion is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have already attempted three and converted each for an additional three points when measured against taking the standard PAT.

"Oh, we're going to keep doing it," Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger told ESPN. "We don't practice it this much to not do it. We practice it every single day. ... I tried to tell you guys early on that we would do it, and I think you guys kind of didn't quite believe it. But it's something we feel comfortable with."

Last season, there were 25 regular season games in which NFL teams scored a 2-point convert, with those contests finishing the year 15-10 Over/Under with an average of 55.92 points scored versus a betting total of 46.88 points. The season before that, 2013, the 29 games with a 2-point conversion in the boxscore went 23-6 O/U, averaging 53.75 points per contests against an average total of 45.64. Going back over the past 13 NFL season, games with a 2-pointer boast an average of 51.76 points versus an average betting total of 43.36 – a massive difference of 8.4 points per game.

“It’s going to show up eventually,” Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director for TheGreek.com, tells Covers. “The totals will get adjusted as more coaches realize and start going for two more than one. But you will have to wait and see if the coaches wake up.”

Heading into the weekend, the Steelers are joined by the Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans as teams that have successfully converted two points – whether that be a planned strategy or playing to their games situation.

As for Pittsburgh’s Over/Under number for Week 3’s road game against the St. Louis Rams, the total opened at 47 points and has since climbed to 48 as of Friday night.
If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial

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Where the action is: Betting Week 3 of the NFL

Now that we've moved on to the third week of the NFL season, oddsmakers and bettors are starting to get a better idea of where certain football teams stand.

This week, we talk to Michael Stewart of online shop CarbonSports.ag about where the action is on a couple of the bigger games on Sunday's board.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens - Open: -2.5, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

The Bengals have just about been as good as it gets through the first two weeks of the NFL season. The AFC North leaders roll into Baltimore 2-0 straight up and against the spread and have posted a record of 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three meetings with the Ravens.

Baltimore is a tough place to visit under Joe Flacco's guidance in September, however. The Ravens have registered a mark of 13-1 SU (10-4 ATS) in Flacco's home games in the month.

With such a tight contest between two division rivals, there has been some decent two-way action with kickoff approaching.

"We opened this game with the Ravens as 2.5-point faves at home versus the Bengals and we have seen good two-way action on this game with a slight edge to the Ravens with 56 percent of that action," Stewart tells Covers. "We keep seeing steady two-way action on this game and it looks like we will be sticking to our original number of Ravens -2.5."


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets - Open: +2.5, Move: -2.5, Move: -3

The Eagles have had a disappointing start to the campaign and head into New York to face a Jets team that is 2-0 SU and ATS .

Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will remain the starter even when Geno Smith returns, has thrown four touchdown passes. Running back Chris Ivory is slated to play after he was listed as questionable with a groin injury of his own.

"Opened Philadelphia -2.5 and 47, " says Jerome Perry of online shop TopBet.eu. "On Tuesday, sharp money came on Jets +2.5, just before the announcement that DeMarco Murray was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. After this injury news, line went from Jets +2.5 to Jets -2 and the total dipped from 47 to 45.5. Then on Friday, Murray was upgraded to probable so moved Jets from -2 to -1.5 and total from 45.5 to 46."

Earlier Sunday, it was announced that Murray would miss out and TopBet has moved to Jets -3.


San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -6.5, Move: -6, Move: -6.5

Speaking of division rivalries, the 49ers head into Arizona fresh off of a dismal showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2. It won't get any easier for the Niners as the Cardinals have started in fine fashion on the field and at the betting window, covering the spread by 10 points in Week 1 and a whopping 23 points in Week 2.

Cards quarterback Carson Palmer has looked fantastic through two games and has won eight straight games when starting under center. The Cards have gone 7-1 ATS in those previous eight Palmer starts.

"We opened this game at Cardinals as 6.5-point faves at home to the 49ers and some some sharp action come in on the 49ers mid-week to push the line to Cards -6," Stewart says. "With the public backing the favorite, we moved back to Cards -6.5 Thursday and that is where we currently sit with 67 percent of the spread action on the Cardinals to cover."

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Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores


1:00 PM EDT

461 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 48 48.5 / 49 / 48 48.5 -105
462 ST. LOUIS RAMS -1 -05 -1 / -1 -15 / -1 -11 -1 -115

PIT-RB-Le'Veon Bell-Probable | TV: CBS, DTV: 709 | Dome

1:00 PM EDT

463 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 45.5 45.5 / 44.5 45.5 +115
464 MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3 +02 -1.5 -05 / -1.5 / -2 -2 -15 -135

TV: CBS, DTV: 707 | MOSTLY SUNNY, SOUTH WIND 7-12, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 78, RH 46% HEAT INDEX 79

1:00 PM EDT

465 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 41.5 41 / 40.5 / 41o13 41 +215
466 HOUSTON TEXANS -7 -05 -6 / -6 -15 / -6 -05 -6 -255

HOU-WR-DeAndre Hopkins-Probable | HOU-RB-Arian Foster-Doubtful | TV: FOX, DTV: 713 | CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. NORTHEAST WIND 9-14. GAME TEMP 79, RH 64% HEAT INDEX 82 (NRG STADIUM ROOF CLOSES IN WET WEATHER)

1:00 PM EDT

467 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES PK -05 45.5u14 / 45.5 / 46.5 47 +145
468 NEW YORK JETS 48u11 -3 / -3 -15 / -3 -20 -3 -15 -164

PHI-RB-DeMarco Murray-Doubtful | NYJ-RB-Chris Ivory-Probable | NYJ-QB-Geno Smith-OUT | TV: FOX, DTV: 714 | CLOUDY, EAST WIND 7-12. GAME TEMP 70, RH 54%

1:00 PM EDT

469 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 44 43.5 / 43 / 42 43 +355
470 CAROLINA PANTHERS -3 -9.5 / -10 -15 / -10 -10 -05 -450

NO-QB-Luke McCown-Probable | NO-QB-Drew Brees-OUT | TV: FOX, DTV: 711 | CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. NORTHEAST WIND 9-14. GAME TEMP 73, RH 73% HEAT INDEX 77

1:00 PM EDT

471 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 47.5 49o11 / 49 / 49o11 49 +800
472 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -13 EVEN -14 -05 / -14 / -14 -15 -14 -04 -1200

JAC-TE-Julius Thomas-OUT | TV: CBS, DTV: 708 | PARTLY CLOUDY, EAST WIND 7-12. GAME TEMP 68, RH 52%

1:00 PM EDT

473 CINCINNATI BENGALS 44 44.5 / 44.5u11 / 44.5 45.5 +105
474 BALTIMORE RAVENS -2.5 -17 PK +15 / -1 -15 / -1.5 -05 -1.5 -15 -125

TV: CBS, DTV: 705 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWERS. EAST WIND 10-15, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 72, RH 59% HEAT INDEX 73

1:00 PM EDT

475 OAKLAND RAIDERS 42.5 42.5 / 43 / 43.5 44 +165
476 CLEVELAND BROWNS -4 -05 -3.5 -05 / -3.5 / -3.5 -05 -3.5 EVEN -185

CLE-QB-Josh McCown-Probable | TV: CBS, DTV: 706 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, SOUTHEAST WIND 10-15. GAME TEMP 69, RH 58%

1:00 PM EDT

477 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -5.5 -3 -25 / -3 -30 / -3 -25 -3 -20 -170
478 TENNESSEE TITANS 45.5 45.5 / 45.5o12 / 46 46.5 +150

TEN-QB-Marcus Mariota-Probable | TV: CBS, DTV: 710 | CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 76, RH 66% HEAT INDEX 79

1:00 PM EDT

479 ATLANTA FALCONS PK -05 44 / 43.5 / 44.5 43.5 -101
480 DALLAS COWBOYS 44 PK / PK +15 / -1 -05 -1 -119

DAL-QB-Brandon Weeden-Probable | DAL-QB-Tony Romo-OUT | DAL-WR-Dez Bryant-OUT | TV: FOX, DTV: 712 | MOSTLY SUNNY, EAST WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 86, RH 37% HEAT INDEX 86 (A T and T STADIUM ROOF MAY CLOSE IN HOT WEATHER)

4:05 PM EDT

481 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 44.5 44.5 / 44.5o11 / 45 44.5 +225
482 ARIZONA CARDINALS -6.5 -05 -6.5 -15 / -6.5 / -6.5 -15 -6.5 -275

TV: FOX, DTV: 715 | MOSTLY SUNNY, SOUTHEAST WIND 7-12. GAME TEMP 100, RH 17% HEAT INDEX 97 (UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM ROOF MAY CLOSE IN HOT WEATHER)

4:25 PM EDT

483 CHICAGO BEARS 45 44.5 / 43.5 / 43.5o11 43.5 +901
484 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -15 -14.5 / -14.5 -15 / -14.5 -14 -14.5 -15 -1502

CHI-QB-Jimmy Clausen-Probable | CHI-WR-Alshon Jeffery-Doubtful | CHI-QB-Jay Cutler-OUT | SEA-RB-Marshawn Lynch-? | TV: CBS, DTV: 717 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, NORTH WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 59, RH 57%

4:25 PM EDT

485 BUFFALO BILLS 43.5 41.5 / 43 / 43u11 44 +105
486 MIAMI DOLPHINS -3 -05 -1.5 -15 / -1.5 / -2 -2 -05 -125

TV: CBS, DTV: 716 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 86, RH 67% HEAT INDEX 94

8:30 PM EDT

487 DENVER BRONCOS -3 -25 -3 -30 / -3 -20 / -3 -25 -3 -15 -165
488 DETROIT LIONS 44.5 44.5 / 44 44.5 +145

DET-QB-Matthew Stafford-Probable | TV: NBC | Dome

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NFL Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

4:05 PM San Francisco +6.5 1103 33.25% Arizona -6.5 2214 66.75% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville +14 1103 33.36% New England -14 2203 66.64% View View

1:00 PM New Orleans +10 1315 40.10% Carolina -10 1964 59.90% View View

4:25 PM Chicago +14.5 1220 40.87% Seattle -14.5 1765 59.13% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay +6 1495 45.18% Houston -6 1814 54.82% View View

1:00 PM Philadelphia +3 1650 47.25% N.Y. Jets -3 1842 52.75% View View

1:00 PM Cincinnati +1.5 1670 48.09% Baltimore -1.5 1803 51.91% View View

1:00 PM San Diego +2 1633 48.67% Minnesota -2 1722 51.33% View View

1:00 PM Oakland +3.5 1770 52.57% Cleveland -3.5 1597 47.43% View View

4:25 PM Buffalo +1 1982 58.66% Miami -1 1397 41.34% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta +1 2167 60.55% Dallas -1 1412 39.45% View View

8:30 PM Denver -3 1747 62.17% Detroit +3 1063 37.83% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis -3.5 2131 64.15% Tennessee +3.5 1191 35.85% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh +1 2352 65.85% St. Louis -1 1220 34.15% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Philadelphia 47 890 41.09% N.Y. Jets 47 1276 58.91% View View

1:00 PM New Orleans 43 907 41.15% Carolina 43 1297 58.85% View View

4:25 PM Buffalo 43.5 1034 48.54% Miami 43.5 1096 51.46% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta 43.5 1130 49.00% Dallas 43.5 1176 51.00% View View

4:05 PM San Francisco 45 1078 51.46% Arizona 45 1017 48.54% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh 48.5 1155 52.88% St. Louis 48.5 1029 47.12% View View

1:00 PM Cincinnati 45.5 1159 54.06% Baltimore 45.5 985 45.94% View View

1:00 PM Oakland 43.5 1199 54.43% Cleveland 43.5 1004 45.57% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay 41 1166 54.82% Houston 41 961 45.18% View View

4:25 PM Chicago 43.5 1224 59.39% Seattle 43.5 837 40.61% View View

1:00 PM San Diego 45.5 1318 61.10% Minnesota 45.5 839 38.90% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis 46.5 1360 62.64% Tennessee 46.5 811 37.36% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville 49 1434 63.93% New England 49 809 36.07% View View

8:30 PM Denver 44.5 1357 71.88% Detroit 44.5 531 28.13% View View

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NFL EARLY GAMES:

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Dallas - Over 43.5 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Tennessee - Over 46.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -3.5 500 *****
Cleveland - Under 43.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +1.5 500
Baltimore - Under 45.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +14 500 DOUBLE PLAY
New England - Over 49 500 DOUBLE PLAY

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans +10 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Carolina - Under 43 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3 500 *****
N.Y. Jets - Over 47 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +6 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Houston - Under 41 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET San Diego +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Minnesota - Over 45.5 500

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis -1 500 BLOW OUT
St. Louis - Under 48.5 500