The Bum's National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

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B]Albert will start for Dolphins at left tackle[/B]

DAVIE, Fla. - The prospects for the Miami Dolphins on the offensive line got a lot better Wednesday when it was revealed that Branden Albert will start at left tackle in Sunday's season opener at Washington.

A Pro-Bowl selection in 2013, Albert broke the news first Wednesday in the locker room, and head coach Joe Philbin later confirmed it. Albert, who tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in November, is among Miami's best players, regardless of position, and should help the offensive line greatly.

It was unknown prior to Wednesday whether a knee injury would keep him from playing against the Redskins.

The news on Albert wasn't the only change on the line. Right guard Jamil Douglas will start the opener at Washington, which is somewhat of a surprise considering Billy Turner held that job for almost all of training camp and preseason.

Douglas, the rookie fourth-round pick from Arizona State, spent a lot of time with the first team in the preseason finale against Tampa Bay and that performance, coupled with a few penalties by Turner in the preseason, might have sealed the deal.

Notes: Cornerback Brice McCain will start on the right side, opposite Brent Grimes, in the opener at Washington. McCain, who is likely to move to the slot in the nickel package, was battling Jamar Taylor for the starting job but it appeared Taylor had locked it up until sustaining a thigh injury late in preseason. Taylor was limited in Wednesday's practice. his role remains unclear because he won't start in the regular defense. There's a good chance Taylor plays boundary cornerback in the nickel defense with Brice McCain moving inside to the slot.

Left tackle Jason Fox (concussion) didn't practice Wednesday, meaning he's practiced once in the last two weeks. Fox was the starter for most of training camp and preseason while Albert recovered from his knee injury. ... Wide receiver DeVante Parker (foot) had full participation in Wednesday's practice and seems ready to play in Sunday's opener. Parker, the first-round pick from Louisville, missed all of training camp and preseason except for the finale against Tampa Bay recovering from offseason surgery. Wide receiver Kenny Stills, who missed most of training camp and preseason with a calf injury, will start in Sunday's opener at Washington ahead of Rishard Matthews, who seemed to have an outstanding training camp and preseason.

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Lawmakers stand up for cheerleaders

Give me an M-I-N-I-M-U-M-W-A-G-E.

That is the cry from 19 lawmakers on behalf of cheerleaders for NFL teams. The cheerleaders are currently considered independent contractors, which exempts them from minimum-wage laws.

The story was first reported Wednesday by Buzzfeed.

The lawmakers sent a letter to NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, laying out "abuses" against cheerleaders including failure to receive pay in a timely manner, unreimbursed expenses and illegal deductions from earnings for minor infractions.

"It is outrageous the conditions that these young women are being forced to work in," New York state Sen. Diane Savino (D-Staten Island) told the New York Daily News.

Queens (N.Y.) Assemblywoman Nily Rozic told the Daily News, "It shouldn't take lawsuits and legislation to get the NFL to do the right thing."

According to SI.com, cheerleaders for the Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals filed wage lawsuits in the past year. A California law passed this summer designates professional sports team cheerleaders as employees.

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Insane NFL Week 1 betting trend involving Super Bowl teams

One glaring NFL Week 1 football betting trend that has shown up since the turn of the century has to do with teams coming off an appearance in the Super Bowl the year before.

Defending Super Bowl champs have ridden that wave of momentum to a stellar 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS record in Week 1 the following season since 2000, most recently the Seattle Seahawks beating the Green Bay Packers 36-16 as 4.5-point favorites in a Thursday night opener last September.

The team that lost in the Big Game isn’t so lucky. Apparently, getting over that crushing defeat takes more than an offseason, with Super Bowl losers going 6-9 SU and only 3-12 ATS the last 15 seasons. The Denver Broncos, who were blown out by Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII, defeated the Indianapolis Colts 31-24 in Week 1 but couldn’t cover the 8-point spread.

That puts the spotlight on the defending champion New England Patriots and Seahawks in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. The Patriots are 7-point favorites hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night, but were down to -2.5 when it was thought Tom Brady would be suspended for the first four games of the year. Seattle is currently a 4-point road favorite visiting the St. Louis Rams Sunday.

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T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis - Prob Sun

Hilton will likely play Sunday against the Bills after recovering from a concussion.

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Todd Gurley, St. Louis - Out Sun

Gurley is recovering well from knee surgery but will not play Sunday against the Seahawks.

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Carroll on Seahawks holdout Chancellor: 'He's not playing'

With Kam Chancellor still holding out from the Seattle Seahawks, coach Pete Carroll ruled the safety out of the team's season opener.

"He's not here so he's not playing. That's it," Carroll said at practice Wednesday.

Cornerback Richard Sherman said, according to Sports Radio KJR, "Everybody's disappointed. You expect to have him."

Sherman added that he doesn't know when Chancellor might rejoin the Seahawks but that his teammates understand his position.

NFL Network's Albert Breer reported that Chancellor could become the first player to have a holdout drag into the regular season under the current collective bargaining agreement -- not including quarterback Carson Palmer, who "retired" before he was traded to the Oakland Raiders.

Chancellor's current contract runs through the 2017 season and is set to pay him $4.55 million this year. However, Chancellor already faces fines of more than $1.5 million for the holdout.

Chancellor, 27, was Seattle's fifth-round draft pick out of Virginia Tech in 2010. After playing every game as a reserve during his rookie season, he started all but three games over the next four years, making the Pro Bowl three times.

The Seahawks open the season Sunday in St. Louis against the Rams.

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TNF - Steelers at Patriots

September 9, 2015


Although there were times this summer where it looked impossible, Tom Brady will lead his New England Patriots out of the huddle on their first offensive possession when the NFL regular season opens on Thursday night.

The defending champs are a seven-point favorite at most books, while the projected total hovers around 52. The announcement that Brady’s suspension had been revoked by a New York federal judge last week saw this spread jump from New England laying a field goal at home to a full touchdown or more.

“Deflategate,” amusing diversion for the insane and annoying distraction to everyone else, still has at least one more chapter left. Fortunately, what’s left to be written no longer ominously hangs above the 2015 opener like a dark cloud. Regardless of whether you believe the Patriots have been unjustly persecuted or just got away with their latest crime of the century, it’s undeniable that the judicial decision to revoke Brady’s four-game suspension makes for a much better show.

This pairing, which could very well repeat itself in late January as the AFC Championship, already lost some of its luster with Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell serving the first of a two-game suspension. Instead of second-year pro Jimmy Garoppolo taking snaps, Brady will duel with Ben Roethlisberger in a matchup of two of the game’s best passers. The showdown salvages a season opener that was headed down the road where we’d all be preoccupied by the missing, lamenting what should have been.

For the Patriots, the band is back together, albeit missing a few pieces. Deep threat Brandon LaFell opens the season on the PUP list, sidelined at least the first six games with a foot injury. RB LeGarrette Blount will serve a one-game suspension for a substance-abuse violation, but both are replaceable.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski, among the NFL’s most unique and explosive offensive weapons, is 100 percent after missing the entire preseason to stay fresh. Julian Edelman, banged up early last month and throughout training camp, is ready to go as Brady’s No. 1 receiver. There are new toys like 6-foot-7 tight end Scott Chandler and undrafted rookie Chris Harper, who could also be asked to make an impact in the return game. Veteran Danny Amendola, in addition to young options Matthew Slater and Aaron Dobson, give the Patriots plenty of threats.

New England’s most significant injury concern, center Bryan Stork, remains mired in the NFL’s concussion protocol and may not play after missing three consecutive practices entering Wednesday. The Patriots are 13-3 in his starts when you include the postseason. If he can’t go, veteran Ryan Wendell, still working his way back from offseason shoulder surgery, would be an option to step in. Undrafted rookie David Andrews out of Georgia would be another way to go. Neither is likely to be as effective Stork, who won a national title at Florida State and a Super Bowl in a 13-month span in addition to a Rimington Trophy as the nation’s top college center while snapping to redshirt freshman Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston.

Compounding his potential absence is the fact Brady will be getting a look at the first Steelers defense to be run by someone other than Dick LeBeau in 11 years. The veteran coordinator is in Tennessee now, giving way to protégé Keith Butler, the team’s long-time linebackers coach. Since he may have a wrinkle or three in place, Brady will have to be wary as a guinea pig of sorts given how little Pittsburgh gave away in the preseason in terms of blitz packages and disguised coverages. This defense will be hungry to establish a new identity given the retirement of long-time mainstays Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jason Worilds. Young playmakers Ryan Shazier, Cam Heyward and Bud Dupree will be tasked with making contributions on the road at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots have won eight of the last 11 meetings between these teams, including five of the last seven over the last decade. Roethlisberger won the first head-to-head meeting with Brady in 2004, snapping the Patriots amazing 21-game winning streak. The Steelers went 15-1 that year, but lost the AFC Championship at home to New England, which went on to win another Super Bowl.

These teams go way back. Brady and Roethlisberger do too. Both are highly complimentary of one another, so even during a week where many are again questioning how large a role cheating has played during this era of dominance, don’t expect any bulletin board material from the Steelers quarterback, who Brady called “an incredible player” earlier this week. Roethlisberger has never beaten a Brady-led team in New England, but Bill Belichick was also effusive in his praise of Roethlisberger, breaking from his typically tight-lipped character to proclaim that his Patriots won't see a better quarterback on the schedule all season.

Roethlisberger's task is made no easier by the absence of Bell, perhaps the most dynamic option out of the backfield in the entire league. Also missing is emerging receiving threat Martavis Bryant, a burner who scored eight touchdowns on just 26 receptions as a rookie last season. He’s suspended for four games, but Pittsburgh is confidence that Darrius Heyward-Bey, Markus Wheaton, Dri Archer and rookie Sammie Coates will ensure no drastic dropoff alongside superstar Antonio Brown. The same can’t be realistically expected of Bell’s replacement, new acquisition DeAngelo Williams, the long-time Carolina starter. He’s not the blocker or receiving threat out of the backfield that Bell is, but his experience is reassuring given the circumstances.

The Steelers also have uncertainty in play at the center spot, having lost four-time Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey to a broken fibula on Aug. 23. It's no coinicdence that the last time the Steelers lost his services for the season, they manged to go just 8-8, tied for the worst mark of Mike Tomlin's head coaching tenure. Pouncey isn't eligible to return until Week 9 at the earliest, leaving snapping duties to Cody Wallace and potentially veteran Doug Legursky. Both are serviceable, but neither is of Pouncey's caliber.

Evening thunderstorms are a possibility in the weather forecast, so keep tabs on that. NBC will have the broadcast with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call.

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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 8:30 PM ET New England -7 500 DOUBLE PLAY

New England - Under 50.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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NFL

Thursday, September 10

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NFL football betting trends to watch in September
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The Dallas Cowboys were 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread last season in away outings.

The pig is finally in the air.

That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘players’ alike.

Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”

Play accordingly.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Detroit has been notoriously fast starters for years and is 29-16 ATS on a field where Eminem calls home. The lone home game will not be easy, facing Denver.

Baltimore is still a respectable 28-16 ATS at home, but is not as strong under coach John Harbaugh. Let's see if they flex their muscles against Cincinnati on the 27th of the month.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona is just 14-23 ATS in the desert this month and has home games against New Orleans in Week 1 and San Francisco in Week 3. Definitely worth watching.

The New York Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick as their signal caller for now. Cleveland is in New Jersey for the season lid-lifter and Philadelphia two weeks later as the Flyboys try and improve on 18-28 ATS mark the first month of the season at home.

Cincinnati is a miserable 15-25 ATS this month and probably fortunately just has San Diego in Week 2 on the banks of the Ohio River.

Washington has been laboring at home for years and is 16-27 ATS before the home crowd. Having Miami and St. Louis the first two weeks, we will find out quickly if Robert Griffin III is really is among the best quarterbacks in the NFL as he recently proclaimed, or whether Kirk Cousins is really the answer.


AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is money on the road to begin the season at 30-17 ATS and has two chances to better that record: In the opener at Houston and the Week 3 Monday nighter at Lambeau.

Dallas was 8-0 and 7-1 ATS last season in away outings, which helped build a recent 29-16 ATS mark. That makes the Week 2 battle at Philly worth waiting for.

Keep an eye on (Bad): It has never made sense why a franchise as consistently good as Pittsburgh struggles early on the road and is a dismal 15-29 ATS. They might catch a bit of a break being in New England for Game 1 of the season. Seventeen days later they will be in St. Louis.

Speaking of the Rams, they are only marginally better at 15-28 ATS, but found a home team as bad as they are in Washington, leaving football bettors to choose the lesser of two evils.


FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is a rock solid 29-16 ATS favorite, however, like usual will be tested at St. Louis in the opener. Two weeks later they will likely have an easier time facing Jay Cutler and the Bears.

Bad: With the Cardinals a lousy home team, it stands to reason they would be a mediocre favorite. At 7-18 ATS in September, this is as bad as it gets, so let's see of the Saints and Niners can expose them again as frauds in that role.

If you have too much money, we have a perfect solution... bet Carolina as favorites this month. The Panthers are 8-18 and should be favored in all three games in September!

St. Louis fits the bill also at 12-25 ATS, however, we know they will not be a favorite against Seattle in the first contest and chances are will not being handing out points at the Redskins or home to Pittsburgh. Watch the numbers and keep this in mind.


UNDERDOGS

Good: The Dallas Cowboys thrive in this role at a sensational 26-12 against the number. Their Week 2 showdown at Philly will be their lone chance to improve on record.

Keep an eye on (Good): With road games at Houston and Green Bay, Kansas City will be an underdog and seeking to improve on 27-17 ATS. In between those contests is a home date with rival Denver and based on the past two years in this matchup at Arrowhead, the Chiefs might actually not be favored until their fifth contest.

Bad: We already mentioned the Steelers slow starts and they are 10-21 ATS when catching points this month. They are underdogs at New England, with a Week 3 nonconference clash at St. Louis to be determined later.


DIVISION

Good: The Chiefs home opener will on Thursday night against Denver on the 17th and K.C. is a dandy 23-11 ATS in that role.

Keep an eye on (Bad): With New England's quarterback situation temporarily settled with Tom Brady back, we’ll see whether the added weight and the bull eye of being defending Super Bowl champs weighs on the Pats disappointing 16-24 ATS vs. the AFC East.

Cincinnati is a fairly disheartening 13-20 ATS against the AFC North early on, and its first division confrontation of 2015 will be at Baltimore.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

LeSean McCoy scorched the Colts for 102 total yards and a touchdown as a member of the Eagles last season. The Bills will look to run vs. Indianapolis in Week 1.

Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 45)

Colts’ rushing defense vs. Bills’ run-heavy playbook

Rex Ryan isn’t keeping his offensive gameplan under wraps for his debut as the Bills head coach. Ryan pretty much tipped his pitch when he announced Tyrod Taylor as his starting quarterback, meaning expect a lot of rushing plays from Buffalo as they try to control the clock and keep Andrew Luck off the field. New running back LeSean McCoy is ready to roll and looking to do similar damage to the Colts defense as he did last season with the Eagles.

McCoy and former running mate Darren Sproles torched Indianapolis in Week 2, totaling 105 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while adding another 175 yards on catch-and-runs from short looks and screen passes. The Colts suffered a similar fate against Steelers RB LeVeon Bell in Week 8, giving up 92 yards rushing and 56 yards through the air to Pittsburgh’s versatile rusher. Indianapolis, which gave up 113.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry in 2014, also hasn’t faced a true dual-threat QB since Week 5 of the 2013 season when Seattle QB Russel Wilson tacked on 102 rushing yards to his 210 passing gains and two touchdowns.

Daily fantasy watch: RB LeSean McCoy, QB Tyrod Taylor


Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4, 48.5)

Ravens’ Week 1 conditioning vs. Altitude at Mile High

The Broncos hold one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, with the thin air at Sports Authority Field challenging the conditioning of visiting teams. Even in the middle of the schedule, when teams are in game shape, the altitude can leave opponents sucking wind in the final frame of the game. That impact is felt even more in Week 1 of the NFL season, when teams are in camp/preseason shape but not yet in peak physical condition. If you’ve ever player high-level sports, you know the only thing that can really get you into game shape is playing games.

Denver has dominated visitors in its home openers, losing just once in front of the Mile High faithful in the past 15 seasons. And the team uses this to their advantage, with Peyton Manning putting his foot down on the gas pedal and forcing opponents to pick up the pace with his no-huddle attack. The Broncos new offense, under Gary Kubiak, is blending that up-tempo style with his renowned smash-mouth zone-blocking rush, which should leave rivals running on empty. Baltimore has been in this spot before, losing a 49-27 Week 1 matchup in Denver as defending Super Bowl champs in 2013, buckling for 35 points the second half.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Peyton Manning, RB C.J. Anderson, TE Owen Daniels


Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+3.5, 43.5)

Bengals’ kick return talent vs. Raiders’ weak kick coverage

The Raiders had numerous faults in 2014, so singling out just one is like saying Al Davis had ugly teeth. However, for the purpose of this mismatch, Oakland’s trouble with kick coverage is the main culprit. The team allowed opponents to average 32.5 return yards on kickoffs – worst in the NFL – and 10.9 return yards on punts – fifth worst. Opponents of the Black & Silver started their offensive drives at an average just the 32-yard line, which snowballed into a defense that allowed a NFL-worst 28.3 points per game in 2014. The Raiders did added special teams standout Lorenzo Alexander, who was cut by Arizona. But it's a nice character hire of a hometown guy and merely a finger in the dam for Oakland's not-so special teams.

The Bengals are loaded with special teams talent, especially on their return team. Cincinnati still has Adam Jones returning kicks, coming off a season in which he lead the league in average yards per kickoff return (31.3) and finished second in average yards per punt return (11.9). Behind “Pacman”, Cincy has WR Brandon Tate, RB Giovanni Bernard, and rookie speedster Mario Alford from West Virginia, who ran a 4.43 second 40-yard dash at the combine. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense benefited from an average starting spot of almost the 30-yard line in 2014 (29.89).

Daily fantasy watch: Bengals defense/special teams


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)

Giants’ small defensive line vs. Cowboys’ massive blockers

Tony Romo and Dez Bryant may sell the most jerseys but the real stars of the Cowboys are the offensive linemen. Dallas dominated the trenches last season, helping the team own the football for 32:13 per game and giving Romo time to drop back, read the defense, read his stacks of hate mail, then find the open receiver. The starting offensive line runs an average height of over 6-foot-4 and combines to weigh 1,590 pounds – or about the same as a U-HAUL van minus the furniture. And that’s not counting the other bodies on the bench, like La'el Collins who runs 6-foot-4 and 321 pounds.

The G-Men started the season light on the defensive line, playing without top pass rusher DE Jason Pierre Paul, who blew off his index finger with Fourth of July fireworks. The Giants defensive line is smaller and built for speed, topping out at starting DT Johnathan Hankins (320 pounds), and gets diminutive very quickly once they start going down the depth chart. New York doesn’t have a lineman that demands a double team, which means maximum protection for Romo and gives the Cowboys extra blockers in TEs and RBs to pick up the blitz.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten, RB Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden

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Win Total Top Picks

September 10, 2015


AFC BEST BET...

Thank goodness for the Houston Texans (8 ½ wins) who enlivened an otherwise desultory NFL preseason as this summer’s spotlighted team on HBO’s Hard Knocks, with second-year HC Bill O’Brien providing unexpected color with his salty language and quick wit. But O’Brien, who earned his coaching spurs as Bill Belichick’s o.c. before keeping a distressed Penn State program afloat, already proved he knows what he’s doing last season when stewarding the Texans’ 7-win improvement over 2013.

Offseason roster changes hardly seem to indicate a drop-off from last year’s 9-7 mark, with new QB Brian Hoyer (familiar witrh O'Brien from days at New England) considered by most insiders as an upgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick and the other QBs (including holdover Ryan Mallett) who rotated taking snaps a year ago, and the defense now features thick FA ex-Patriots NT Vince Wilfork to complement do-everything J.J. Watt and, apparently, former No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney, due to return to live action and provide another potential menacing component on the edge. Though RB Arian Foster (groin) remains sidelined for the time being, also consider that Houston competes in the forgiving AFC South, with this year’s inter-conference crossover games vs. the NFC South, which did not boast of an above-.500 team last season. The Watt-Clowney combination might even be enough to unnerve Andrew Luck in meetings vs. the Colts and give the Texans a chance to steal the South. A definite “over” for us at NRG Stadium.

NEXT BEST BETS...

As the preseason progressed, a mild groundswell of support began to develop for the New York Jets (7 ½), who won their last three exhibitions for new HC Todd Bowles. To his credit, Bowles seemed to get the team refocused after a variety of distractions early in training camp that included starting QB Geno Smith getting his jaw broken in a dispute with LB Ikemefuna Enemkpali, who was summarily released. But expecting an improvement of four wins over last year’s 4-12 mark seems to be asking a bit much.

Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick performed fairly well in August and might not be much of a dropoff from Geno (who could return in October), but was facing a succession of vanilla defenses in summer, and a leaky OL that conceded 47 sacks a year ago could become especially problematic with the slow-footed and error-prone Fitzpatrick in the pocket. Yes, there was a lot more inflow than outflow in free agency, and the return of Darrelle Revis and addition of Antonio Cromartie from Arizona (familiar to Bowles, recently the Cards’ d.c.) immediately upgrades the CB spots. The AFC East, however, is not a picnic, and there appear to be very few potential soft landings on a tough-looking 2015 slate. The Jets should improve their win total from 2014, but not enough to make the “over” work this fall. It’s an “under” for us at the green half of MetLife Stadium.

There remain questions about the immediate future of the Denver Broncos (10 ½) and QB Peyton Manning, who waited a bit longer to commit to a return in 2015 after last year’s quad injury and other various physical issues (including an admission from Manning that he has recurring numbness in his fingers, a byproduct of the neck surgeries of a few years ago). And Manning did not look in midseason form in limited preseason work this summer. But observers believe that the new Gary Kubiak-designed offense and the return of a zone-blocking emphasis to the Denver scheme will improve the Broncos’ balance and provide a late-career life-raft for Manning, much as it did for John Elway in the late ‘90s, when Kubiak was o.c. for Mike Shanahan’s Super Bowl winners.

And there remains a win-now mindset in Denver, as Elway was quick to move John Fox out the door and replace him with old chum Kubiak after another early-round playoff exit last January. The most intriguing angle of the homecoming theme, however, might be the return of d.c. Wade Phillips, one time Bronco d.c. and HC (and Kubiak’s d.c. at Houston), whose affinity for the blitz and high-pressure “D” could unleash Von Miller and Demarcus Ware (now an OLB in Phillips’ 3-4) to wreak havoc on opposing QBs from the edge. Denver has not won fewer than 12 games the past three years and should exceed the 10½, so look “over” at Sports Authority Field.

OTHERS...

The Kansas City Chiefs (8 ½) have exceeded this win total both years on HC Andy Reid’s watch. And the Chiefs should have at least partially solved their dilemma at WR (none of whom catching a TD pass last season) with ex-Eagle FA Jeremy Maclin. But there might be a ceiling on how far QB Alex Smith can take the team, and the 2015 slate is formidable at the least. “Under” at Arrowhead...We are not big fans of Andy Dalton, whose limitations are among the reasons the Cincinnati Bengals (8 ½ wins) have not gotten past the wild card round in the playoffs the past four years. But Cincy has consistently made the postseason, and with several key components in contract years, the Bengals should get above .500. “Over” at Paul Brown Stadium.

NFC BEST BET...

It’s easy these days to pile on the Washington Redskins (6 ½). And for good reason, as Dan Snyder’s team has become the most dysfunctional in the NFC, losing ten or more games in five of the past six seasons. While there is some tempered optimism among the long-suffering Skin fan base now that Kirk Cousins has been given the reins to the offense instead of the concussed RG III, we remind that Cousins endured a rough ride last season when starting five games, and there is little evidence an OL that couldn’t protect him or any of Jay Gruden’s QBs last season has significantly improved. Moreover, the bullet-riddled “D” endured a near-complete makeover in the offseason, forcing out coordinator Jim Haslett. We hardly expect a renaissance in D.C., so we’re looking “under” once again at FedEx Field.

NEXT BEST BETS...

Some team has to emerge in the NFC South after none could get above .500 last season, right? The most-likely candidate might be the Atlanta Falcons (8 ½), who seemed to tune out HC Mike Smith the past couple of seasons. But with a Pro Bowl-caliber QB in Matt Ryan and a collection of top-notch receivers, this was not the worst job for a new coach to inherit in the offseason. And former Seahawk d.c. Dan Quinn would appear to be a good fit, bringing a stop-end emphasis with him from Seattle as he looks to upgrade the Falcon defense. Suspect competition in the South makes us look “over” at the Georgia Dome.

Speaking of the South, we are not on board with hype surrounding the Carolina Panthers (8 ½), who were sitting on three wins past Thanksgiving before a December rally vs. suspect opposition allowed Cam Newton & Co. to squeeze into the 2014 playoffs with a losing record, temporarily saving the job of HC Ron Rivera. Importantly, Cam developed plenty of comfort with big rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin down the stretch last year. But Benjamin’s preseason knee injury could have a devastating impact upon a shallow group of Panther wideouts. That shortcoming could prove costly in a competitive (albeit suspect) divison, so we look “under” at Bank of America Stadium.

OTHERS...

We feel like bandwagon jumpers with the Minnesota Vikings (7), a chic pick by many to reach the playoffs. But there are plenty of reasons to get excited beyond the return of Adrian Peterson, as 2nd-year QB Teddy Bridgewater proved big enough to handle the NFL stage as a rookie, and 2nd-year HC Mike Zimmer (former Bengal d.c.) seems to get what he needs from his stop unit. Look “over” in Minneapolis...It could be a distracting season for the St. Louis Rams (7 ½), rumored to be on their way back to former home L.A. next year. We need more convincing that ex-Eagle Nick Foles is really an upgrade at QB, and Georgia rookie RB Todd Gurley has been slow to recover from knee surgery. The NFC West is still a tough neighborhood in which to live, and the 2015 slate looks daunting, so we're thinking "under" at Edward Jones Dome.

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Raiders sign troubled pass rusher Aldon Smith

September 11, 2015


ALAMEDA, Calif. (AP) The Oakland Raiders signed troubled pass rusher Aldon Smith to a contract Friday, five weeks after he was released by San Francisco.

The 49ers cut ties with Smith on Aug. 7, a day after his fifth arrest since being drafted by the team in 2011. Smith was arrested in Santa Clara on charges of drunken driving, hit and run and vandalism.

The Santa Clara District Attorney's office said that Smith was charged Friday with three misdemeanors relating to his latest arrest. The charges are driving under the influence with a prior offense, hit and run with property damage and vandalism. Smith will be arraigned on Oct. 6.

''We are confident that the Raiders provide an environment where Aldon can thrive through the support, structure and leadership within the building,'' general manager Reggie McKenzie said in a statement. ''We are excited to have Aldon here in the Raiders family.''

Smith was suspended for the first nine games last season for violating the NFL's substance-abuse and personal-conduct policies. The league says he is currently eligible to play despite his latest arrest. But the NFL is still looking into that matter.

Smith is one of the most accomplished pass rushers when available. He had 33 1/2 sacks his first two seasons with the 49ers.

The Raiders needed an upgrade for their pass rush after recording a franchise-low 22 sacks last season.

''Aldon is an extremely talented young player,'' coach Jack Del Rio said. ''We welcome him to the Raiders family and expect him to bring his best every day and be a great teammate.''

Smith practiced on Friday in his familiar No. 99 but there was no immediate word on whether he would be able to play in the season opener Sunday against Cincinnati.

The Raiders waived defensive end Lavar Edwards to make room on the roster.

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Week 1 Tip Sheet

September 12, 2015

Packers (-6 ½, 49) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST

The two oldest rivals in the NFL meet up at Soldier Field as Green Bay looks to duplicate last season’s success against Chicago. The Packers outscored the Bears, 93-31 in two blowouts, including a 38-17 rout in Chicago last September. Green Bay split four preseason games, while losing top wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL in an exhibition loss at Pittsburgh. Since 2012, the Packers own a 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS record as a road favorite of six points or more, which includes an ATS loss in a three-point win at Minnesota last season.

The Bears won three of four preseason contests, as John Fox debuts as head coach following four seasons with the Broncos. Chicago looks to rebound from a 5-11 season, while covering only once in four tries as a home underdog, coming as a 10-point ‘dog to Detroit in a 20-14 loss in Week 16. Jay Cutler has struggled against this Green Bay defense, losing eight straight starts against the Packers since 2010, with the last win by the Bears’ quarterback versus the defending NFC North champions in Week 3 of that season as a home underdog.

Colts (-2 ½, 45) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

There are big expectations placed on Indianapolis this season, who are predicted by many to break through to the top of the AFC. The Colts have taken care of business in the road favorite role since Andrew Luck took over at quarterback in 2012, owning a terrific 9-2 SU/ATS record in this situation, including a 4-2 SU/ATS mark last season. Indianapolis’ schedule sets up nicely for a solid start, taking on the Jets, Titans, Jaguars, and Texans before hosting New England in Week 6.

The Bills begin the Rex Ryan era with plenty of question marks under center as former Raven Tyrod Taylor gets the start in the opener. However, Buffalo has been successful the last few seasons when receiving points at Ralph Wilson Stadium, compiling a 6-1 ATS mark as a home underdog since 2013. When Ryan coached the Jets, he was successful in season openers, winning five of six, including a 4-1 record at home. The Bills should get a nice boost in the backfield as LeSean McCoy is expected to play in spite of missing most of the preseason with a groin injury.

Dolphins (-3 ½, 43 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

One of the biggest disasters of the preseason was the quarterback controversy in Washington as Robert Griffin III was sacked in favor of Kirk Cousins. The Redskins have won a combined seven games the last two seasons since capturing the NFC East title in 2012, while Cousins put together a 1-4 record as a starter in 2014 (he didn’t finish that lone win, replaced by Colt McCoy in a home victory over Tennessee). Washington went 3-5 at home last season with two of those wins coming against AFC foes, as the ‘Skins have won four of their last five at FedEx Field in interconference action.

The Dolphins own a favorable schedule to begin the season after their trip to Washington (Jaguars, Bills, Jets in first four weeks). Miami has won and covered each of the last two season openers, but the Dolphins are favored in Week 1 for the first time since 2010. The Dolphins have fared well on the front-end of back-to-back games under Joe Philbin, going 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS, even though five of those games came in the underdog role.

Panthers (-3, 41) at Jaguars – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina became the first team to win consecutive NFC South titles since realignment in 2002, even though the Panthers finished 7-8-1 last season. The Panthers have struggled in road openers recently, posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record since 2009 with the only win coming with Cam Newton sidelined in last season’s opening victory at Tampa Bay. However, under Ron Rivera, the Panthers own a 2-6 ATS record as a road favorite the last three seasons, while not being listed in this role in 2014.

Jacksonville hasn’t put together a winning season since 2007, as Blake Bortles enters his second season at quarterback. The Jaguars won just three games in Bortles’ rookie campaign, while the team posted a 6-9-1 ATS record, including a 2-4 ATS mark as a home underdog. Under Gus Bradley, the Jags have started 0-5 SU/ATS each of the last two seasons, while losing each season opener by at least 17 points.

Seahawks (-4, 40 ½) at Rams – 1:00 PM EST

The two-time defending NFC champions hit the road to start the season for the fourth time in the last five seasons, going for their third straight Week 1 victory. Seattle has lost two of its last three visits to the Edward Jones Dome, including a 28-26 setback as seven-point favorites last season. Super Bowl losers have fared well in the following season’s openers, winning three straight and putting together a 2-1 ATS record.

Will this be the year the Rams break through under Jeff Fisher? St. Louis hasn’t picked up a winning season since Fisher arrived in 2012, but the off-season acquisition of Nick Foles at quarterback should jump-start an offense that scored 19 points or less eight times in 2014. The Rams have stumbled against their division foes, going 3-9 SU/ATS the last two seasons, including four losses to Seattle. St. Louis allowed at least 26 points in five of eight home games last season, which resulted in a 5-3 ‘over’ mark.

Bengals (-3 ½, 43) at Raiders – 4:25 PM EST

Cincinnati is fresh off three straight double-digit victory seasons, but the Bengals have failed to escape the Wild Card round each time. Marvin Lewis’ squad begins the 2015 campaign with three of their first four games against AFC West foes, looking to capitalize off a 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS road record from last season. The Bengals have struggled when laying points away from Paul Brown Stadium the past two seasons, going 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS with the only two victories coming by a combined four points.

The Raiders are turning into a popular pick to make the playoffs in Jack Del Rio’s first season, even though the Silver and Black has won a combined 11 games the past three years. Oakland closed out last season very strong at the Black Hole, winning its final three games in the underdog role against Kansas City, San Francisco, and Buffalo. However, the Raiders haven’t fared well in season openers in the last decade, losing nine of the past 10, including five defeats at the Coliseum.

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Total Talk - Week 1

September 12, 2015

Welcome back to Total Talk, the eighth season of this weekly piece and one of my favorites to produce each NFL season. What makes it even better is the feedback, both good and bad, that I receive and the relationships I’ve built.

With that being said, let’s have a great season!

Looking Back and Ahead

What’s great about the NFL is that change occurs every season and the same goes for the results.

For total purposes, Green Bay and Philadelphia were the best ‘over’ teams (11-5) in the regular season last year while Buffalo was a sure-fire ‘under’ bet (13-3).

Looking at the past four seasons above, it’s very rare to see teams produce one-sided results in back-to-back seasons. With that being said, I seriously doubt the Bills are going to produce a 13-3 ‘under’ record again. However, we do have some teams that have certainly leaned one way or another more often than not.

Denver (40-31-1), Green Bay (37-25), Chicago (36-26) have been some of the best ‘over’ clubs the last four seasons and they have a couple things in common. They all have quarterbacks that can sling the rock and they also have questionable defenses.

If you’re looking for clubs with ‘under’ tendencies the last four seasons, Kansas City (41-22-1) and Cleveland (38-25-1) have led the way.

Line Moves

Totals for Week 1 were starting to populate in the middle of April and the market held steady for the summer but there are some moves to note as of Saturday morning.

Kansas City-Houston: 43 to 41

Indianapolis-Buffalo: 48 to 45

Carolina-Jacksonville: 43 ½ to 41

Seattle-St. Louis: 44 to 40 ½

Baltimore-Denver: 53 to 47 ½

Philadelphia to Atlanta: 53 ½ to 56

Odds Note - I usually follow openers from CRIS (Bookmaker.eu) just because of their quickness of posting openers and overall volume but Las Vegas shops that get the job done are Westgate, Wynn and CG. If you like to follow the numbers, you should check out the VI Live Odds screen and coordinate with our customer service team to get a free trial.

Divisional Battles

Only three divisional matchups this week and all of them have solid total angles to watch.

Green Bay at Chicago: This series has watched the ‘over’ cash in three straight and the Packers have scored 33, 38 and 55 points during this span while totals have ranged from 51 to 53. This week’s number is a tad lower and we’ll get to find out if the offensive injuries will temper Green Bay’s offense. Nobody is strong on the Bears defense and the unit will be without one of its better players in defensive tackle Jeremiah Ratliff due to suspension.

Seattle at St. Louis: The ‘under’ has been a great lean in this matchup, going 8-2 the last five seasons and these have been fairly easy tickets to cash. One of the ‘over’ tickets did occur last year as the Rams notched a 28-26 win at home. The Rams are beat up at RB and that’s not going to help new quarterback Nick Foles. Even though I don’t believe the Seahawks defense will be as great as past seasons, especially without the absence of Kam Chancellor, I can still see why this number has dropped.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Oddsmakers sent out a total of 50 on this game and it’s up to 51 ½ at most shops and will probably close higher since it’s the SNF matchup. Tough to argue the move knowing the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 the last 10 meetings and 5-0 the last five. Dallas has won the last four, averaging 30.5 PPG. Running back DeMarco Murray (121, 128) lit up the Giants last year but he’s no longer on the ‘Boys and it’s yet to be seen who will emerge as the top carrier this season. Neither club boasts a strong defense and that alone could have you leaning to the high side.

Under the Lights

If you get a chance, check out Micah Roberts’ piece on NFL Handicapping Tips, which includes some great advice from professional Las Vegas bettor Jeff Whitelaw, who touched on the inordinate amount of ‘over’ winners in the nationally televised games.

On Thursday, the Patriots-Steelers game fell ‘under’ the closing total of 51 but there were points left off the board and you can see that New England’s offense is still potent at home and the defense is far from great. Also, the same can be said for Pittsburgh.

SNF - N.Y. Giants at Dallas: See Above

For Monday’s action, we have two rookie coaches making their debuts with Dan Quinn leading Atlanta and Jim Tomsula taking over in San Francisco. Fortunately for this pair, they’ll both be home but the oddsmakers have them listed as underdogs.

MNF - Philadelphia at Atlanta: The Eagles have become a very popular ‘over’ bet under head coach Chip Kelly, who clearly is an offensive genius and also somebody that gives two shits about defense. To back my point up further. I put stock into what team’s do on the road and the Birds have gone 10-6 both SU and ATS as visitors under Kelly and they’ve averaged 28.6 PPG. Defensively, they’ve allowed 27.6 PPG and only twice they’ve held teams to under 20 points, which came against the Cowboys and Packers. Make a note that Romo and Rodgers sat out those results, which pushes the true average just under 30 PPG. Atlanta has the talent to score at home but make a note that the last four totals listed at 53 points or higher in the Georgia Dome have all gone ‘under’ the number.

MNF - Minnesota at San Francisco: In head coach Mike Zimmer’s first season in 2014, the Vikings went 6-2 to the ‘under’ on the road and all those results were never in doubt. Offensively, you should see improvement with running back Adrian Peterson back in the fold. A drop-off is expected in San Francisco this season and there are plenty of question marks on both sides of the ball. The 49ers have seen the ‘under’ go 11-5 the past two seasons at home. New head coach Jim Tomsula is a former defensive line coach and the team has a new offensive coordinator, which makes you believe it could take time for the offense to develop.

Fearless Predictions

Handicapping Week 1 of the NFL is never easy and I would certainly tread lightly. This section barely finished in the red last season and something I hope doesn’t occur again. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Giants-Cowboys 51

Best Under: Saints-Cardinals 48 ½

Best Team Total: Under Colts 24

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 42 Giants-Cowboys
Over 46 ½ Eagles-Falcons
Under 54 Colts-Bills

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SuperContest Picks - Week 1

September 12, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1

1) Miami -3.5 (664)

2) Arizona -2.5 (589)

3) St. Louis +4 (474)

4) N.Y. Jets -3.5 (381)

5) Green Bay -7 (380)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 1 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Home Team Selections Away Team Selections

Pittsburgh (+7) 64 New England (-7) 106

Green Bay (-7) 380 Chicago (+7) 244

Kansas City (+1) 335 Houston (-1) 235

Cleveland (+3.5) 115 N.Y. Jets (-3.5) 381

Indianapolis (-2.5) 347 Buffalo (+2.5) 297

Miami (-3.5) 664 Washington (+3.5) 168

Carolina (-3) 167 Jacksonville (+3) 268

Seattle (-4) 171 St. Louis (+4) 474

New Orleans (+2.5) 137 Arizona (-2.5) 589

Detroit (+3) 186 San Diego (-3) 296

Tennessee (+3) 174 Tampa Bay (-3) 172

Cincinnati (-3) 251 Oakland (+3) 222

Baltimore (+4.5) 269 Denver (-4.5) 245

N.Y. Giants (+6.5) 307 Dallas (-6.5) 173

Philadelphia (-3) 346 Atlanta (+3) 305

Minnesota (-2.5) 347 San Francisco (+2.5) 195

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Gridiron Angles - Week 1

September 12, 2015


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Texans are 13-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since September 28, 2008 when the total is under 43 and they are not 9+ point favorites, when the margin the last time they face this teams was between -13 and +21.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-12 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since November 27, 2011 as a home dog of at least two points when the total is under 43.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Eli Manning is 0-12 OU (-10.6 ppg) since January 22, 2012 on the road when he threw for at least 260 yards in his last meeting against this team.

NFL ATS SYSTEM:

-- Teams in week one at home who won 7 or 8 games (including playoffs) at home last season are 26-38-1 ATS. Active against Arizona and Denver.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-10 OU (-10.4 ppg) since October 12, 2014 when the total is under 48.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 9-0-2 OU (11.1 ppg) since 2008 in the first two weeks of the season when they are not favored by eight points or more.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- None (Active next week)

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 1

September 11, 2015

You got to love the betting public. They come firing right out of the gate in Week 1 of the NFL with chalky road favorites as their top parlay plays. Nearly every Las Vegas sports book will collectively be sweating the outcomes of five major games which will ultimately decide how big of a win the house will have on opening weekend.

“They’re taking Green Bay (-7 at Chicago), Seattle (-4 at St. Louis), Indianapolis (-2.5 at Buffalo), Miami (-3.5 at Washington) and Philadelphia (-3 at Atlanta Monday night) the most,” said top William Hill bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “When you get good teams laying small numbers, the public will always gravitate to that side.”

That’s five road favorites, a situation where the books should fare well by getting at least three of the ‘dogs to win or cover -- maybe even more. Home underdogs getting +3 or more in the NFL are usually sides smarter money likes to focus on, and a few sharps already have.

“We’ve had some sharp money on Buffalo just before LeSean McCoy was announced as probable,” said Bogandanovich, “and we also took wise guy plays on Atlanta and San Francisco for Monday night’s games, but the public is still on the other side of all those games weighing the risk out more.”

Station Casinos book director Jason McCormick is in the same boat as Bogadanovich with public plays, and said the top sharp plays he’s gotten this week have come on the Redskins getting +4 at Miami and the Raiders +3.5 at home against the Bengals. Stations now has the Dolphins -3.5 and the Bengals -3 -120.

MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood took time away his Mirage office Friday to be at the MGM Grand press conference to promote Saturday night’s Welterweight Title bout between Floyd Mayweather and Andre Berto, a fight that isn’t attracting a lot of attention.

“We haven’t taken a lot of action so far, and what we do have is small on Berto,” said Rood, who opened Mayweather -4000 and now has him -3000 with a take back at +1000. “The area we’ve been getting a lot of attention on has been that the fight will go over 12 full rounds (-240).”

Mayweather’s decision to fight Berto was frowned upon by the betting public as soon as the fight was announced. The public usually loves to ride with the underdog, but there isn’t much enthusiasm for this guy.

One NFL team that Rood has seen plenty of enthusiasm with, just like every book, has been the Colts at Buffalo where he added 10 cents of extra juice to Indy (-2.5 -120) on Thursday.

“Everyone seems fired up about the Colts this season and they’re taking them right away in Week 1. It’s one of our more lopsided games so far, and we’ll see a lot more action the next two nights before kickoff.”

The Colts were a steady -3 across the town when McCoy was ‘questionable,’ but when his status became ‘probable’ on Wednesday morning, every book shifted to -2.5. With the exception of Wynn’s sports book who just moved the juice on Buffalo to +3 -120.

Bogdanovich said his biggest risks as of Friday, with straight bets, parlays, teasers and everything else included, are on the Seahawks and Colts.

The unique thing about this week’s lines is that numbers have been posted since April when the NFL schedule was released so there are a couple very big moves over a long period of time.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the biggest moves that happened at the South Point who first opened week 1 on April 22.

-- The Packers opened as 4-point favorites at Chicago and by the Fourth of July, they were at -5.5. Halfway through preseason they were -6.5. The move to -7 happened Tuesday. The total dropped from 50.5 to 49 on Tuesday as well.

-- The Jets opened as 1.5-point home favorites against Cleveland, but were bet up to -3 in June where they still remain. The total has eroded from 41 down to 39.5, a move quite understandable since the Browns have stayed under the total in 11 of its past 12 games.

-- Miami was a 2-point road favorite at Washington and had passed -3 during preseason before hitting the high mark of -4 on Tuesday, and that’s when the sharp money bit with the dog and pushed Miami back to -3.5.

-- The Chargers opened as 2.5-point home favorites over Detroit and were moved to -3 on Monday when all the games were reopened for action at full limits.

-- The Eagles had the largest rating adjustment made during the preseason. In July the Eagles were pick ’em for the Monday night game at Atlanta. On Monday, they opened the Eagles -3. Sharp money likes the Falcons, but the public loves the Eagles. By game time, you might be able to get +3.5, so you might want to wait if playing Atlanta.

-- If the Eagles had the most points moved in a rating adjustment during preseason, then the Vikings are a close second. Even before coach Mike Zimmer was starting his preseason career with an 8-0 record, the bets were pouring in on them for Monday’s road game at San Francisco. Everyone is down on the 49ers this year. This game opened 49ers -4 and after the first week of preseason it was pick ‘em. It’s slowly been adjusted to Vikings -2.5. Boyd Gaming opened the Vikings -3 EVEN on Monday and 49ers money pushed them back to -2.5 like everyone else. Chances are the risk on this game, which will be the final game posted of the weekend, will be so large that you’ll be able to +3 with the 49ers again if you want it.

If both Monday night road favorites come in, it’s going to be a rough weekend for the books. If those five road favorites come in, coupled with another road favorite of Minnesota on Monday, it'll be lights out Las Vegas as the betting public will be cashing six-team parlays.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 11 years.