NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 10 - Monday, September 14)

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, September 13

Packers @ Bears-- Green Bay won nine of last ten series games, winning last five series games, four by 7+ points. Pack started 0-1 last three years, giving up 30+ points in all three- seven of their last nine road openers went over total. Chicago has new coach in Fox; since '12, they're 1-5 as home underdogs, 9-16-1 as a single digit dog. Bears won five of last six home openers; three of last four went over total. Green Bay beat Bears 38-17/55-14 LY; they averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt in both games. Since '07, Pack is 22-17 as road favorites, 13-7 vs NFC North rivals. How much will Rodgers miss Jordy Nelson, his #1 WR who is out for the year?

Chiefs @ Texans-- Curious if addition of WR Maclin will help KC passing game; Chief WRs had zero TDs LY. Houston won last five home openers, covering four of them; four of the five wins were by 10+ points. Seven of last ten home openers stayed under. Chiefs lost seven of last nine road openers, but Reid won five of his last six. Chiefs are 2-2 here, with last visit in '10. Home side won last three series games; last two were decided by total of five points. Hoyer gets nod as Houston's QB; they weren't decisive in choosing him. Over is 10-6 in Houston home games the last two years, 23-15-1 in KC road games in last five years.

Browns @ Jets-- Cleveland is 1-15 in last 16 season openers, with only win in 2004- they're 3-6-2 vs spread as a dog in road openers. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road openers. Jets have a new coach, Fitzpatrick at QB; they are 18-27 as home favorites since '07, but won last four home openers, three by 5 or less points. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Browns lost by 6-11 in last two games vs Jets; they were 5-1-1 as road dogs in first year under Pettine. Under is 19-13 in Cleveland road games the last four years. Cleveland suspended its OL coach because of a DUI (not his first) so that is a problem.

Colts @ Bills-- After four years as Ravens' backup, Tyrod Taylor makes first NFL start here for Bills. Indy lost last four Week 1 road openers, are 1-4 in last five road openers, with seven of last ten staying under total, but they added Frank Gore/Andre Johnson; should have damn good offense. Colts won seven of last eight games vs Buffalo-- average total in last four, 33.5. Bills won five of last seven home openers, covered 10 of last 13 as home dog; Rex Ryan was 6-2 as a home dog last two years with Jets. Last three years, Indy is 8-3-1 as road favorite, 13-9-1 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 33-22-1 in their last 56 road games.

Panthers @ Jaguars-- Carolina covered just two of last eight as a road favorite; underdogs are 17-7 vs spread in its road games last three years. Jacksonville is 2-6 in last 8 home openers, losing last three by combined score of 99-26. Home side won four of last five series games; three of last four were decided by 6 or less points. Panthers lost by 10-31 points in their two visits here. Jaguars are 8-23-1 as home underdog since '10 (5-16 in non-divisional games); under is 20-12 in Jax home games last four years. Over is 20-12 in Carolina road games the last four years. Carolina lost Benjamin for year; what WRs will step up and replace his production?

Dolphins @ Redskins-- Washington's summer was a total mess; Cousins gets start at QB- they need a win to shut critics up. Home side won last seven series games; Miami lost last three visits here by 20-11-3 points- their last win here was in '84. Dolphins are 2-9 in last 11 road openers; under is 16-5 in their last 21, including last six in row. Washngton is 4-7 in last 11 games as a home dog; they're 8-13 in last 21 games where spread was 3 or less. Since '06, Skins are 10-22-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Miami is 15-10 in last 25 games in which spread was 3 or less. Redskins scored 31.8 ppg in last four home openers but still split the games (over 4-0).

Seahawks @ Rams-- Seattle is 17-3 in last 20 series games, 2-3 in last five visits here; Rams used two great fake punts to upset the Seahawks LY. How much will addition of star TE Graham bolster Seattle's offense? Rams are 2-6 in last eight home openers, 1-4 vs spread as an underdog- over is 11-6-1 in their last 18. Seattle lost seven of last eight road openers (1-4 vs spread if favored); since 2010, they're 2-5 as a divisional road favorite. Rams are 7-6 in last 13 games as a home dog; over is 19-12-1 in their home games last four years. Average total in last ten series games is 32.4. Since '02, Super Bowl loser is 2-11 vs spread in its opener the next season.

Saints @ Cardinals-- Arizona won eight of last nine home openers covering three of last four; last three stayed under total. Cardinals are 12-3-1 in last 16 games where spread was 3 or less. How much will loss of TE Graham make Saints more of a running team? Home side won last five series games; Saints lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 2-24-10 points. NO is 13-24-1 vs spread last five years on road, 10-14 SU last three years- they covered once in last eight road openers, with six of last seven going over. Arizona is 7-2-1 as home favorites under Arians.

Lions @ Chargers-- Home side won eight of last ten series games; San Diego won six of last seven, winning last four here, three by 6 or less points. Detroit is 4-9 as road dogs since '12, 5-10 in last 15 non-divisional road games; under is 12-4 in Lion road games last two years, 19-12 in San Diego home games last four years. Since '10, Chargers are 10-4 as non-divisional home favorite; they're 8-13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 3-11 in road openers last 14 years (4-10 vs spread); under is 3-1-1 in last five- they won in Week 1 in each of last four years- three of those were home.

Titans @ Buccaneeers-- Couple of rookie QBs starting here, with solid defensive coaches on other side. Home side won nine of last ten series games, with Titans winning six of last seven vs Bucs. Tennessee is 1-2 here, with last visit in '07. Tampa Bay lost seven of last nine season openers; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12. Bucs scored 16-14-14 in last three home openers but they have an OC this year (Tedford was ill LY). Titans are 8-12 as road underdogs since '12, 7-14-2 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Bucs are 6-12 as favorites since '11, 5-11-2 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Bengals @ Raiders-- Oakland lost last five times they opened at home; last Week 1 home win was in '02. Raiders lost by 8-4-5 in last three season openers; underdogs are 3-0-1 in last four. Silver and Black are 15-22 as home dogs since '06, 5-10 as non-divisional home dog since '10. Home side won last five series games, with Oakland 4-2 in last six; Bengals lost last ten visits here, but their last visit here was in '09 (they were 1-3 vs Raiders in LA back in day when Raiders lived there). Cincy covered once in last six tries as road favorite; under is 14-8-1 in their last 23 road games.

Ravens @ Broncos-- Kubiak is Denver's HC; he was Ravens' OC LY, so their defense will know what to see from Broncos. Denver is 23-3 SU in last 26 home openers, 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15; they scored 37 ppg in Week 1 in three years Manning has been here. Broncos are 16-7 as home fave in Manning era, 10-4 in non-division games. Ravens lost three of last four road openers but are 5-2 vs spread as a dog in road openers; over is 9-6-1 in their road games last two years. Over is 28-12 in Bronco home games last five years. Ravens lost four of last six in Denver, but won playoff game here in '12; they're 4-8-1 vs spread in last thirteen games as a road underdog. Lot of inexperience on Denver OL, bad news if you have an immobile QB.

Giants @ Cowboys-- Dallas won last four series games, with 55.2 average total in last five series games. Cowboys are 8-24 as home favorites since 2010, 3-9 in divisional games; they covered once in last six tries as a favorite in home opener. Giants are 7-9 as a dog since '13; they lost 36-31/31-21 in last two visits here- in last eight seasons, they're 14-10 vs spread in NFC East road games. Over is 10-1 in Giants last 11 road openers, 1-3 in Dallas' last four home openers. Big Blue will be without four of top five tacklers from LY and their safeties were crippled by injury this summer. Dallas averaged 10.7/9.5 ypa vs NYG LY.

Monday, September 14
Eagles @ Falcons-- Philly won last six road openers, winning SU as dog last two years; three of their last five were decided by 3 or less points. Under Kelly, Eagles are 9-7 vs spread on road, 11-4 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Falcons won last two vs Philly 35-31/30-17; average total in last three series games is 53.7. Over is 11-5 in Eagle road games under Kelly. Atlanta is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less; they're 9-5 as home dog since '08. Falcons went 10-22 last two years so they made change on bench; new OC Kyle Shanahan is familiar with Eagles from his days in Washington.

Vikings @ 49ers-- Peterson back for Minnesota; he last played in LY's opener. Lot of changes with 49ers, few for better; they were 44-19-1 under Harbaugh. 11 of 22 starters from LY are gone now. Niners won last four openers and scored 28+ in all four- they're home underdog for first time since 2011. Home side won 10 of last 11 Viking-Niner games; Minnesota lost eight of last nine visits here; they're road favorite for first time since '12, 12-5 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less. Vikings are 4-10 in last 14 road openers, with eight of last 11 staying under total. Since 2007, 49ers are 3-11-3 as an underdog of 3 or less points; 11 of their last 16 home games stayed under total.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 13

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Sunday's Week 1 NFL betting cheat sheet
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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+6.5, 49)

* Quarterback Jay Cutler will be in the eye of the storm following a season in which he threw for a career-best 28 touchdowns but was also intercepted 18 times and lost half of his 12 fumbles. Cutler is 1-11 in his career against Green Bay, including the postseason.

* Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers finished with 38 touchdowns versus five interceptions last season and he fattened those numbers in the two drubbings of Chicago, throwing for 617 yards with 10 scoring passes and zero picks.


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-1.5, 40.5)

* Kansas City hopes it has upgraded on offense by adding Maclin, who had 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 TDs with Philadelphia a year ago while Chiefs wideouts failed to catch a single touchdown pass. They have the edge when it comes to the men on the sidelines, as Chiefs bench boss Andy Reid is 5-0 all-time against the Texans.

* Houston has won five straight season openers, the longest active streak in the NFL.


Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-3.5, 39.5)

* Journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, starting in place of Geno Smith, who suffered a broken jaw in training camp after getting punched by a teammate, is currently the focal point for a team that ranked sixth in the league in total defense a year ago but couldn't make up for its extreme deficiencies on offense.

* A week ago, Cleveland shockingly traded running back Terrance West, who led the team with 673 rushing yards last season, giving Isaiah Crowell the inside track to carry the bulk of the load in the backfield. While the Browns are forecast to have one of the best offensive lines in football, they were just average rushing the ball last season and McCown was a disaster in Tampa Bay, throwing just 11 touchdowns passes and winning just once in 11 appearances.


Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 45)

* Indianapolis is breaking in a pair of rookies along that line in defensive end Henry Anderson and tackle David Parry while hoping outside linebacker Robert Mathis continues to defy Father Time. “These guys are going to go and they’re going to play hard and they’re going to play tough and they’re going to play damn smart,” head coach Chuck Pagano told reporters regarding Anderson and Parry. “Feel great about that group.”

* Bills QB Tyrod Taylor is capable of making plays with his legs as well as his arm but should have both McCoy (hamstring) and rookie Karlos Williams (undisclosed) available to take on some of the pressure in the running game. "I feel like the medical staff has done a good job of preparing me so far,” McCoy told reporters. “Practicing, I’ve just been doing light loads, each day doing more and more. I feel comfortable. I’m not sure if I’ll be exactly 100 percent (on Sunday), but I feel good enough to go out there and compete.” McCoy ran for 2,962 yards and 14 TDs in his final two seasons with Philadelphia while adding 80 receptions.


Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 43)

* Ryan Tannehill has a few new weapons at his disposal as Miami welcomed the arrivals of Kenny Stills (New Orleans) and tight end Jordan Cameron (Cleveland) to add to emerging star Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews. With veteran wideout Mike Wallace shuffled off to Minnesota, coach Joe Philbin is hoping his quick-strike offense will lead to the team's first postseason appearance since 2008. Lamar Miller amassed nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage last season, with a career-high 1,099 coming on the ground.

* Washington WR DeSean Jackson expects to play despite being plagued by a sprained right shoulder in the preseason.


Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 41)

* The Jaguars expected tight end Julius Thomas to be a big part of their offense when they signed him away from Denver in the offseason, but Thomas underwent surgery on his finger Monday and will miss at least three weeks.

* The Panthers lost star wideout Kelvin Benjamin in the preseason, leaving the receiving corps suspect at best. Rookie Devin Funchess could emerge as a top target but he's been hampered by a hamstring injury throughout the preseason, leaving veteran Ted Ginn Jr. and tight end Greg Olson as key cogs.


Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+4, 40.5)

* Seattle has won 17 of the last 20 meetings with St. Louis, but the three losses have come in its last five visits to St. Louis.

* St. Louis Rookie running back Todd Gurley's ailing knee will make him a spectator on Sunday and Tre Mason (hamstring), last season's leading rusher, could follow suit, leaving Benny Cunningham and Isaiah Pead to face Seattle's fearsome front seven. The going should be tough as the Rams mustered a season-low 42 yards in the most recent meeting against the Seahawks.


New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 48.5)

* The real question with the Saints often has been the performance of the defense, which ranked 31st in total yards (384 per game) and 28th in scoring (26.5) a year ago and will have a number of rookies in key roles.

* Carson Palmer is 16-6 as a starter with Arizona, including 6-0 last season, and has won 10 of his 12 home starts with the team.


Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (-3, 46)

* Rivers, who has started 145 consecutive games, has been sacked at least 30 times in five straight seasons. San Diego is hoping to end that streak as it helped shore up its offensive line with the additions of tackle Joe Barksdale (St. Louis) and guard Orlando Franklin (Denver).

* Detroit, which led the league in rush defense (69.3 yards) and was second in total defense (300.9) in 2014, added defensive lineman Haloti Ngata from Baltimore, but the five-time Pro Bowler battled hamstring issues in the preseason.


Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 41)

* Heading into their matchup with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston's Bucs, Titans defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's defenses are 26-3 against rookie quarterbacks since 1995. Those defenses have allowed 24 touchdown passes, 37 interceptions while limiting the signal callers to a .551 completion percentage during that span.

* Winston could use some help from a running game that finished 29th in the league with an average of 85.9 yards last season and an offensive line breaking in a pair of rookie starters. “The linemen we’ve got, those are the linemen we’ve got,” offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter told reporters. “Shoot, I think they’re all five going to the Pro Bowl.” Running back Doug Martin gained just 494 yards while missing five games last season but once again is atop the depth chart at the position.


Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+3, 43)

* Jeremy Hill is coming off a season in which he registered four games with at least 140 rushing yards, joining Hall-of-Famers Eric Dickerson (five) and Curtis Martin as the only rookies to accomplish the feat. Dalton, meanwhile, became the third quarterback in NFL history to both pass for at least 3,000 yards (Peyton Manning and Cam Newton) and lead his team to the playoffs (Joe Flacco and Otto Graham) in each of his first four seasons.

* The Raiders have won six straight and 14 of 15 overall home meetings with the Bengals, including the postseason.


Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4, 47.5)

* "I'm not really worried if it's first game, last game," Baltimore cornerback Jimmy Smith told ESPN of the 39-year-old Manning, who has thrown 31 touchdowns against one interception in outdoor contests in September since joining Denver in 2012. "He's going to be dangerous. He's still Peyton Manning, no matter what." Manning (4,727 yards, 39 TDs in 2014) and the high-octane offense barely missed a step over the last two seasons until a torn quad in the final month forced Denver to rely on C.J. Anderson and its running game.

* Joe Flacco (3,986 yards, 27 TDs) saw free-agent wideout Torrey Smith head to San Francisco in the offseason while first-round selection Breshad Perriman already has been ruled out of Sunday's tilt with a sprained right knee. Flacco still has grizzled veteran Steve Smith (79 receptions, 1,065 yards, six touchdowns), who believes he has more left in the tank as he enters his 15th season.


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)

* Then-rookie wideout Odell Beckham made a national name for himself with a highlight-reel one-handed touchdown grab in the second meeting against Dallas that nearly blew up the Internet. Fellow wide receiver Victor Cruz, who suffered a torn patellar tendon last season, is unlikely to play while dealing with a calf injury, so the Giants may rely on their own backfield triumvirate of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and free-agent acquisition Shane Vereen. Manning threw for 30 TD passes and 4,410 yards last season to quell fears after his dismal 27-interception campaign of 2013.

* The Cowboys will sport a different look after running back DeMarco Murray, who ran away with the league rushing title last season, signed with hated rival Philadelphia in the offseason. Joseph Randle, Murray's backup, is expected to head a committee that includes former Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden.

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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 13


Cold, rain, wind expected when Bills host Colts

Weather forecasts predict temperatures in the low-60s with a 61 percent chance of rain in Buffalo when the Bills host the Indianapolis Colts at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Furthermore, gusts of wind at around 13 miles per hour are expected in the direction of the southeast end zone.

The Bills are currently 2.5-point home underdogs for their season opener.


Chance of rain when Jets host Browns Sunday

According to weather forecasts, there is around a 53 percent chance of showers at MetLife Stadium when the Cleveland Browns visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures in Carlstadt are expected to be in the mid-to-high-70s during gametime with wind blowing across the field at around just five miles per hour.

At present, the Jets are 3.5-point home faves and the total is 39.5.


Cutler a horrible bet under center versus Packers

It is well documented that Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has had a rough history when facing the Green Bay Packers, but those poor performances have spilled over to the betting window as well.

Cutler has posted a 1-11 record straight up (including the postseason) in 12 career games against the Packers. Against the spread, Cutler-led teams have gone just 2-10.

The last time Cutler defeated Green Bay was back on Sept. 27 of the 2010 season when he led the Bears to a 20-17 win at Solider Field, covering the spread as 3-point pups.

He went 2-0 ATS versus the Packers that season as Green Bay triumphed in the regular season finale by a score of 10-3, but the Bears cashed as 11-point road dogs.

Cutler will give it another shot at home Sunday afternoon in their season opener. The Bears, who opened as 5-point home dogs, are presently +7.


Texans are used to winning in Week 1

The Houston Texans have won five straight season openers, the longest active streak in the NFL.

They've recorded a record of 4-1 against the spread over that stretch with their only ATS loss coming in the 2013 curtain raiser when they defeated the San Diego Chargers 31-18 but failed to cover as 5-point road faves.

They have a tough task in Week 1 this year as Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs are in town. Reid is 5-0 all-time versus the Texans.

Books opened the Texans as 1.5-point home faves but that is down to -1.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 13

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Giants at Cowboys
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The Over has gone 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Cowboys and Giants in Dallas.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)

The Dallas Cowboys came within a questionable officiating call of reaching the NFC Championship Game last season, but their focus is on repeating as division champions when they kick off the season against the visiting New York Giants on Sunday night. Dallas swept the Giants last season en route to a 12-4 campaign and the NFC East title and has won four straight games in the series.

The Cowboys will sport a different look after running back DeMarco Murray, who ran away with the league rushing title last season, signed with hated rival Philadelphia in the offseason. Joseph Randle, Murray's backup, is expected to head a committee that includes former Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden. New York gave up 31 points in each of the losses to the Cowboys last season and will be without their top defensive player in defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who broke his thumb and had a finger amputated during a fireworks mishap. Another question surround the Giants has been the contract status of quarterback Eli Manning, but he is reported to be close to signing a four-year, $84 million extension.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Cowboys as 6-point faves. It spent some time at -5 and -5.5 before coming back to -6. The total opened at 49.5 before working its way up to 51.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+2) + Cowboys (-3.25) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -8.25

WEATHER: N/A

INJURY REPORT: Giants - DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Probable, foot), WR Victor Cruz (Out, calf), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Out, finger), LB Jon Beason (Out, knee). Cowboys - CB Brandon Carr (Questionable, hand), LB Rolando McClain (Eligible Week 5, suspension), DE Greg Hardy (Eligible Week 5, suspension).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Tom Coughlin is the oldest coach in the NFL by a five year margin and he?s coming off back-to-back losing seasons. Coughlin is clearly facing ?win now or get fired? pressure in 2015. The Cowboys defense finished #2 in the NFL with 31 takeaways last year, and Tony Romo finished with the league?s highest QB rating. Don't expect either stat to repeat!"

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2014: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, 10-6 O/U): The biggest revelation for New York last season was the emergence of then-rookie wideout Odell Beckham, who finished with 1,305 yards receiving and caught four of his 12 scoring passes against Dallas despite missing the first four games. Beckham made a national name for himself with a highlight-reel one-handed touchdown grab in the second meeting against Dallas that nearly blew up the Internet. Fellow wide receiver Victor Cruz, who suffered a torn patellar tendon last season, is unlikely to play while dealing with a calf injury, so the Giants may rely on their own backfield triumvirate of Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and free-agent acquisition Shane Vereen. Manning threw for 30 TD passes and 4,410 yards last season to quell fears after his dismal 27-interception campaign of 2013.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2014: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Tony Romo finished with 34 scoring passes versus only nine interceptions last season while establishing a franchise record with a 113.2 passer rating, but he will have to adapt to the absence of Murray, who amassed 12 100-yard games. Randle averaged 6.7 yards per carry behind the league's best offensive line and Romo has the luxury of a stud wide receiver in Dez Bryant, who had 88 receptions for 1,320 yards and topped the league with 16 touchdown catches. "Obviously nobody does it better going up to get the ball and when it’s in his hands, great things happen," veteran tight end Jason Witten said of Bryant. The Cowboys have some concerns on the other side of the ball after losing cornerback Orlando Scandrick to a season-ending injury and Rolando McClain for the first four games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Dallas.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 1.
* Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of users are backing the Cowboys.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 14


ST. LOUIS -- A stunning gamble by the Seattle Seahawks to start overtime failed and led to a St. Louis Rams win on the opening Sunday of the NFL season.

Placekicker Greg Zuerlein's 37-yard field goal with 12:06 on the clock gave St. Louis a 34-31 verdict over the two-time NFC champions at the Edward Jones Dome.

The kick came six plays after Seattle tried an onside kick that was recovered by rookie Bradley Marquez at the Seahawks' 49. Jeff Triplette's officiating crew initially nullified the recovery, saying that Marquez gave an invalid fair catch signal, but the ball never hit the ground and Triplette reversed his original call.

Seattle's overtime possession ended when Marshawn Lynch was stopped for a 2-yard loss on fourth-and-1 at the Rams' 41 by defensive end Chris Long.

St. Louis tied the game with 53 seconds remaining when Nick Foles found Lance Kendricks down the left side for a 37-yard touchdown pass. Strong safety Dion Bailey slipped and fell in coverage, leaving Kendricks uncovered.

Cowboys 27, Giants 26

ARLINGTON, Texas -- Tony Romo threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Jason Witten with seven seconds left, giving Dallas an unlikely win over New York.

The desperation drive covered 72 yards in just 1 minute, 27 seconds, completing Dallas' rally from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit. New York turned three turnovers into 17 points during the game, but poor clock management on the last scoring drive likely cost the Giants the game.

The win came at a cost for the Cowboys, however. Wide receiver Dez Bryant broke a bone in his right foot and will undergo surgery that will sideline him four to six weeks, coach Jason Garrett said.

Jets 31, Browns 10

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two touchdowns and Chris Ivory rushed for two more scores as the New York Jets beat Cleveland in an injury-marred season opener for both teams.

The Browns lost linebacker Scott Solomon (ankle) on their first defensive series and quarterback Josh McCown (concussion) on their first offensive series. The Jets lost cornerback Antonio Cromartie to a non-contact left knee injury in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, rookie linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin was strapped on to a cart and driven off the field with head and neck injuries after he was fallen on during a scramble for a loose ball.

Fitzpatrick, starting for his sixth NFL team, finished 15 of 24 for 179 yards. He threw touchdowns to wide receivers Brandon Marshall (six catches for 62 yards) and Eric Decker. Ivory rushed 20 times for 91 yards.

Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel was 13 of 24 for 182 yards and a 54-yard touchdown pass to Travis Benjamin (three catches for 89 yards). Manziel also threw an interception and lost two fumbles.

Bills 27, Colts 14

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Coach Rex Ryan and quarterback Tyrod Taylor won their debut games in Buffalo, defeating Indianapolis in the rain at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Taylor, the former Baltimore Ravens backup, was 14 of 19 passing for 195 yards and a touchdown in his first career start. He also rushed for 41 yards.

Running backs Karlos Williams and Boobie Dixon each had rushing touchdowns for the Bills and Dan Carpenter made two field goals. Percy Harvin caught five passes for 79 yards and a touchdown in his first game with the Bills.

Ryan's blitzing defense harassed Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck into a poor first half that he and the Colts could not recover from. Luck finished 26 of 49 passing for 243 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but much of his production came after the Bills had built a big lead. Luck's first-half passer rating was 46.3.

Packers 31, Bears 23

CHICAGO -- Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes, two to the recently re-signed receiver James Jones, and brought Green Bay from behind to beat Chicago.

The Bears, blown out twice by the Packers a year ago and rebuilding a defense that ranked 30th in the NFL the last two years, knew the key to the game would be limiting Green Bay's possessions by controlling the ball on offense, and they did an outstanding job of that.

Rodgers completed 18 of 23 passes for 189 yards, but Chicago had the edge in ball control -- both time of possession and offensive plays.

Dolphins 17, Redskins 10

LANDOVER, Md. -- Jarvis Landry's 69-yard punt return propelled Miami over Washington.

The Redskins responded by driving to the Miami 29, but Dolphins cornerback Brice McCain intercepted a Kirk Cousins pass intended for wide receiver Pierre Garcon at the 2-yard line. The Redskins' final series came up short at the Miami 20 with 2:17 left.

Miami, which trailed 10-0 late in the second quarter, opened the second half with quarterback Ryan Tannehill (22 of 34, 226 yards, one touchdown) losing a fumble while being sacked by Washington linebacker Preston Smith.

Chiefs 27, Texans 20

HOUSTON -- Alex Smith passed for 243 yards and three touchdowns as Kansas City took advantage of two critical turnovers in its victory over Houston.

The Chiefs converted two turnovers inside the Houston 15-yard line into touchdowns, including an interception by rookie cornerback Marcus Peters on the Texans' first offensive snap. With 5:01 remaining in the first half, Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston forced a fumble with his sack of Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer that defensive end Allen Bailey recovered. Kansas City scored on the next snap for a 27-6 lead.

Smith followed both turnovers with scoring strikes, finding Travis Kelce with a 10-yard pass after Peters' interception for a 7-0 lead with 10:22 left in the first quarter. Smith hit running back Jamaal Charles for a 7-yard touchdown pass after the Bailey fumble recovery.

Panthers 20, Jaguars 9

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Carolina used a 30-yard interception return for a touchdown by Josh Norman midway in the third quarter and added a fourth-quarter field goal to pull away from Jacksonville.

The Panthers put together an eight-minute drive in the fourth quarter to keep the ball away from the Jaguars. The Panthers took over on their own 7 and took 15 plays to go 64 yards before the drive stalled. Graham Gano came in to kick a 47-yard field goal at that point to hike Carolina's lead to 20-9 with 2:41 remaining.

The Jaguars had the ball for just eight plays in the fourth quarter prior to getting the ball back and trailing 23-9. They had a seven-play drive that netted 24 yards and ended when quarterback Blake Bortles was sacked for a 2-yard loss. On their possession, Bortles had his arm hit as he attempted to pass and linebacker Thomas Davis grabbed the wobbly ball for an interception just inside the 20-yard line.

Chargers 33, Lions 28

SAN DIEGO -- Danny Woodhead's 1-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter secured San Diego's victory over Detroit.

The Chargers scored 30 consecutive points to take the lead with 2:37 remaining.

Philip Rivers threw for 404 yards and two touchdowns, completing 35 of 42 passes. He was intercepted twice while throwing for 400 yards for the seventh time in his career.

Cardinals 30, Saints 19

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Carson Palmer's short hitch pass to rookie running back David Johnson resulted in a wild, 55-yard touchdown romp that sealed Arizona's win over New Orleans.

Johnson outsprinted every Saints player within sight to put the finishing touches on a game that could have went either way. The Cardinals may need to rely on him a lot more than they were planning, too, because starting running back Andre Ellington left the game in the second half with a right knee injury.

Drew Brees, who was 30 of 48 for 351 yards and one touchdown, helped pull the Saints within eight points after he connected with Mark Ingram on a 59-yard screen that set up Zach Hocker's fourth field goal of the game.

Broncos 19, Ravens 13

DENVER -- Cornerback Aqib Talib returned an interception 51 yards for a go-ahead touchdown, helping overcome a sluggish performance by Denver's Peyton Manning-led offense as the Broncos beat Baltimore.

The Ravens lost linebacker Terrell Suggs to a season-ending torn Achilles tendon. Suggs was carted off the field after getting hurt in the fourth quarter.

In a rare occurrence, Manning was held without a touchdown pass and sacked four times, while Brandon McManus kicked four field goals, including a 33-yarder with 3:00 remaining to give Denver a six-point edge.

Bengals 33, Raiders 13

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Andy Dalton threw two touchdown passes, Jeremy Hill rushed for two scores and Cincinnati rolled to a victory over Oakland.

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr left the game with a hand injury with under six minutes remaining in the first half and did not return.

Dalton completed 25 of 34 passes for 269 yards. Raiders backup quarterback Matt McGloin connected on 23 of 31 passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns, both to fullback Marcel Reece in the fourth quarter, and one interception.

Titans 42, Buccaneers 14

TAMPA, Fla. -- Rookie Marcus Mariota threw four touchdown passes in the first half, looking like a pro in his NFL debut as Tennessee throttled Tampa Bay.

The game was eagerly anticipated as the first-ever meeting of QBs drafted 1-2 in their NFL debuts, but it wasn't ever a close contest. Mariota got most of the fourth quarter off, pulled for backup Zach Mettenberger after going 13-for-16 for 209 yards and his four touchdowns.

Mariota finished 13-for-16 for 209 yards with a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 14

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Monday Night Football doubleheader preview: Eagles at Falcons, Vikings at 49ers
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DeMarco Murray has shuffled over from NFC East rival Dallas to take the place of the departed LeSean McCoy.

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5, 55)

The new Sam Bradford Era kicks off in earnest on Monday night when the oft-injured quarterback leads the Philadelphia Eagles into Atlanta to face the Falcons in the season opener. Acquired from St. Louis for fellow QB Sam Foles in the offseason, Bradford isn't the only highly publicized new face on Chip Kelly's team, as reigning Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray (1,845 yards, 13 touchdowns) has shuffled over from NFC East rival Dallas to take the place of the departed LeSean McCoy.

Philadelphia allowed free-agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to head to Kansas City, believing that second-year Jordan Matthews can thrive on the inside while rookie Nelson Agholor can make hay on the outside. Speaking of wide receivers, two-time Pro Bowler Julio Jones reeled in 104 receptions for a franchise-record 1,593 yards last season en route to securing a five-year deal worth $71.25 million in the summer. "We think Julio is an elite receiver in this league, obviously," Kelly said. "He presents a lot of problems because of his combination of size and speed. Usually guys that are 6-foot-2-plus, 6-3, 220 (pounds) don't run as fast as Julio." Matt Ryan (4,694 yards, 28 TDs) will likely look for Jones on many occasions, but his rebuilt offensive line may have a say in whether he has enough time to find him.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Eagles -3. O/U: 55

LINE HISTORY: After opening the Giants as 6-point home favorites, sportsbooks have since moved them to -5. The total opened at 49.5 but has risen to 52 as of this writing.

WEATHER: N/A

INJURY REPORT: Philadelphia - L. Johnson (probable), K. Alonso (probable), Z. Ertz (questionable), M. Smith (questionable), J. Shepherd (IR). Atlanta - J. Tamme (probable), J. Matthews (probable), R. White (probable), D. Hester (out), B. Reed (IR), J. Asamoah (IR), T. Howard (IR), C. Mooney (IR), L. Holmes (eligible Week 7).

ABOUT THE EAGLES (2014: 10-6, 2nd, NFC EAST): Philadelphia's defense also features several new faces as linebacker Kiko Alonso was acquired from Buffalo for McCoy and cornerback Byron Maxwell came over from Seattle. At 6-1, 207 pounds, Maxwell may be the best candidate to press Jones at the line, but he'll need help over the top to keep the speedy wideout in check. Also new to Philadelphia is Ryan Mathews, who is expected to spell Murray while also platooning with pass-catching Darren Sproles in the backfield.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2014: 6-10, 3rd, NFC SOUTH): New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will attempt to figure out a backfield in flux as rookie Tevin Coleman has been promoted to starter with Devonta Freeman nursing a nagging hamstring injury. Veteran Roddy White is dealing with a balky knee following a pair of injury-plagued campaigns while Leonard Hankerson replaces the departed Harry Douglas (Tennessee) as the team's third wideout in a pass-happy offense. Atlanta finished last season second in completions (418), third in attempts (632) and fifth in passing yards (4,553) while its 372 rushing attempts were sixth worst in the league.

TRENDS:

*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.
*Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
*Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September.
*Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 64 percent of wagers are on the Eagles.


Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 41.5)

Star running back Adrian Peterson is back in the lineup and that alone is reason for optimism for the Minnesota Vikings, who kick off their season with a visit to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. Peterson was limited to only one game last season after charges of child abuse were leveled against him and wound up on the Commissioner's exempt list.

“You hear the name Adrian Peterson, what do you think? The best running back in the league,” Vikings wide receiver Charles Johnson said. “He’s going to draw a lot of attention." Perhaps the only positive to come out of Peterson's absence was the development of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who lived up to his first-round status over the final month of the season. The 49ers, meanwhile, entered last season as one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, but they are loaded with uncertainty after switching head coaches and undergoing massive personnel changes. Jim Tomsula takes over for Jim Harbaugh, who returned to his alma mater Michigan, and faces the unenviable task of overhauling a defense that lost four players to retirement to go with the release of star pass rusher Aldon Smith.

TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Vikings -2.5. O/U: 41.5

LINE HISTORY: The pointspread has been on a wild ride in this one, as books are currently dealing San Fran +2.5 after opening them as 4-point faves.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 69 degree Fahrenheit ballpark at game time.

INJURY REPORT: Minnesota - M. Pruitt (probable), J. Robinson (out indefinitely), J. Price (eligible Week 3), J. Sullivan (IR), P. Loadholt (IR), C. Matthews (IR). San Francisco - A. Brooks (probable), T. Smith (probable), J. Simpson (eligible Week 7), K. Hunter (IR), D. Anderson (IR), D. Kilgore (IR), D. Smelter (IR).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2014: 7-9, 3rd NFC NORTH): Peterson had scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of his first seven seasons and rushed for at least 1,266 yards in six of his first seven campaigns, so he'll provide Bridgewater with a major weapon. Bridgewater, who completed 72.1 percent of his passes and threw for eight touchdowns versus five interceptions over the final five games, has another deep threat in wideout Mike Wallace and a big red-zone target in tight end Kyle Rudolph, who has missed nearly half his games over the past two seasons. Minnesota's defense improved as the season went on, holding six of its last 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2014: 8-8, 3rd NFC WEST): Quarterback Colin Kaepernick finished with 19 touchdown passes versus 10 interceptions while reaching career highs in passing (3,369) and rushing yards (639), but he'll be without veteran running back Frank Gore. Carlos Hyde is expected to take over in the backfield while Torrey Smith provides blazing speed at wide receiver, but the 49ers could use a return to form by tight end Vernon Davis, who managed only 26 receptions and a career-worst two touchdown catches. The linebacking corps took a hit with the retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland while the losses of Aldon Smith and the retired Justin Smith weaken the pass rush.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bets are on the Vikes.

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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 14


Falcons, Eagles must limit damage from opposing QBs

When the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles collide in Monday Night Football, both sides will be seeking to shore up their respective defenses when it comes to limiting the damage from the opposing men under center.

Last season, Atlanta (279.9) and Philly (264.9) allowed the most passing yards per contest in the entire league. Sportsbooks initially opened the total for the matchup at 49.5 but have since hiked that up to 52.

The Eagles are currently 2.5-point favorites at most shops.


Favorites and over dominate the first Sunday of season

Favorites and the over were the dominant bets to cash on the first Sunday of the NFL season, both going 9-4 in the 13 games played yesterday.

That means both were cashing at a rate of 69.23 percent.

There is a Monday night doubleheader to close out Week 1, with Philadelphia 3-point favorites at Atlanta with a total of 55 and Minnesota a 2-point favorite at San Francisco with a total of 41.5.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 14


Chance of rain at Levi's Stadium Monday night

There is a slight 17 percent chance of rain for the second game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara California where the San Francisco 49ers will host the Minnesota Vikings.

There will also be a slight six mile per hour wind blowing towards the north end zone during the game, where the Niners are currently 2-point home dogs with a total sitting at 41.5.


Chargers OG Fluker likely out 4-6 weeks

San Diego Chargers right guard D.J. Fluker could miss 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury suffered Sunday in a victory over the Detroit Lions.

Fluker, 6-5, 339, was scheduled for an MRI exam on Monday to confirm the initial diagnosis, which surprisingly showed no broken bones.

The Chargers are breathing a sigh of relief that the injury wasn't more severe. TV replays showed several times Fluker going down when he had his leg rolled in the third quarter.


Cowboys WR Bryant (foot) out 4-6 weeks

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant will miss at least one month recovering from surgery to repair a broken bone in his right foot.

Bryant broke his foot during the third quarter of his first game since signing five-year, $70 million contract in July.


Colts WR Hilton likely out 1-2 weeks

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is day-to-day with a bruised knee.

The Colts are planning to be without their No. 1 receiver for their Week 2 Monday night game against the New York Jets.

"It looks like he may miss some time," head coach Chuck Pagano allowed Sunday night.

Colts owner Jim Irsay said Sunday that Hilton was diagnosed with a "really bad bruised" and the team would err on the side of caution for a few weeks.

Hilton's official status could change by the weekend if he responds to treatment.


Ravens' Suggs suffers season-ending injury

DENVER - Baltimore Ravens pass-rushing linebacker Terrell Suggs suffered a torn left Achilles' tendon during a fourth-quarter pass rush in Sunday's 19-13 loss to the Denver Broncos and will miss the rest of the season.

Coach John Harbaugh made the announcement during his post-game news conference.


Raiders' Woodson injured late vs. Bengals

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Oakland Raiders starting free safety Charles Woodson was injured with 1:04 left to play Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals while making a tackle and left the game.

Trainers and doctors examined Woodson on the bench.


Raiders QB Carr leaves with injury

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr left the game with just under six minutes left in the first half Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals with a hand injury and went to the locker room.

The Raiders tweeted that Carr's return was questionable.

Carr had scrambled on third-and-nine from the Raiders' 37 and took a big hit from Bengals cornerback Adam Jones, who forced a fumble, which went out of bounds near the sideline.

Backup quarterback Matt McGloin took over for Carr.

Bengals starting strong safety George Iloka sustained an ankle injury early in the second quarter. He was ruled out early in the second half.


Report: Redskins to cut K Forbath

The Washington Redskins reportedly plan to release kicker Kai Forbath and sign Dustin Hopkins, who has yet to kick an NFL field goal.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Monday that the Redskins will cut Forbath and sign Hopkins, formerly with the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills.

Forbath missed a 46-yard field goal in Sunday's 17-10 loss to the Miami Dolphins. He also made a 45-yarder in the game. Last season, he hit 24 of 27 field goals for the Redskins.

[Udog]

NFL Opening Line Report Week 2: Packers faves over Seahawks

Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks.

Highlighting the Week 2 schedule is a battle of NFC heavyweights on Sunday night, in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Two-time defending NFC champ Seattle travels to the currently unfrozen tundra to face a Green Bay team surely looking for some payback.

Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks. Seattle then went on to a heart-wrenching 28-24 Super Bowl loss as a 1-point pup to New England.

In their respective season openers, the Seahawks rallied with 18 fourth-quarter points to force overtime, but lost 34-31 at St. Louis as 3.5-point favorites, while the Packers bested host Chicago 31-23 as 6-point chalk.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, tabbed Green Bay a 3.5-point fave over Seattle.

“This budding rivalry just keeps getting better,” Lester told Covers. “Seattle’s offensive line issues were apparent in Week 1, but Green Bay doesn’t quite have the firepower St. Louis does along the defensive line. Again, two teams that rate about the same, but we know Lambeau Field will be starving for a victory against this Seahawks squad.

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, set the Pack at -3.

“They also met to open the season last year, and Seattle won at home convincingly (36-16),” Lester said. “The Seahawks rarely lose at home, but the road hasn't been quite as friendly. Green Bay, Wisconsin, is about as strong a home field as you'll find in the NFL.”


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4/OTB)

Dallas could quickly learn what it lost by not re-signing running back DeMarco Murray, who will line up in Philadelphia’s backfield in an NFC East clash.

Some books have this game at Philadelphia -4, with news that Dallas WR Dez Bryant is out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot, while most places have this game off the board as of Monday morning. Books estimate his value between one and 1.5 points to the Cowboys' pointspreads.

The Cowboys opened their season by piling up a boatload of yards (436) and a boatload of costly turnovers (three), but somehow rallied in the final minute to upend the New York Giants 27-26. The Boys failed to cash, going off as a 7-point chalk.

The Eagles, meanwhile, still haven’t kicked off their season, playing in a Monday night game at Atlanta.

Avello expected to set the number around 2.5 – before news of Bryant’s injury got out.

“It's only Week 2 and things may change, but these two appear to be the ones that will be competing for the division crown,” Avello said. “Home-field advantage hasn't meant much the last two years in this rivalry, as each team has lost at home and won on the road.”

Lester was figuring on a field-goal pointspread, but spoke too soon when it came to Bryant’s broken foot.

“If there are no major injuries in either teams’ Week 1 games, we will look to make Philadelphia around 3-point chalk,” Lester said before the conclusion of Sunday night’s game. “It’s a case of two of the most public teams we have, and they look pretty even on paper, so we’ll account for the Eagles’ home-field edge. We’ll have to set the total extremely high to attract under bettors.”


New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)

The defending Super Bowl champion Pats come in with extra rest after dispatching the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-21, though they failed to cash as 7.5-point closing chalk in the Thursday night season opener. Tom Brady, who a week earlier had his four-game suspension rescinded, lit up the Pittsburgh defense, completing 25 of 32 passes for 288 yards and four touchdowns – three to tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Buffalo, in its first game under new coach Rex Ryan, was surprisingly dominant in a 27-14 victory over Indianapolis as a 1-point home underdog. The Bills led 24-0 midway through the third quarter and didn’t let the Colts score until the final minute of that quarter.

“Another semi-rivalry that’s been dominated by the favorite, but one where the books can be tossed out,” Lester said. “Of course, the Bills will be a trendy pick this season, as we took a ton of action on them in Week 1. And of course, they delivered. The Rex Ryan hype machine is well-oiled, so again, I expect the squares to be on the Pats and the sharps to be on the home dog. We’ve already adjusted down to +1.”

Said Avello, “The Bills and Rex Ryan got the start they were looking for and now can prove they are contenders for at least the AFC East. They've only beat the Pats a couple of times over the past 10 years, but they should be well prepared for this one.”


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

The Broncos, under new coach Gary Kubiak, had an extremely pedestrian offensive showing in their opener against Baltimore, but their defense was stout. Denver got a pick-6 for its only touchdown and another interception to end a Ravens threat in the waning seconds, notching a 19-13 home win laying 4.5 points.

The Chiefs scored all of their points in the first half, then held off Houston for a 27-20 win as a 1-point road fave. Kansas City has dropped six in a row SU (2-4 ATS) in its AFC West rivalry with Denver.

“It’s been a one-sided rivalry recently, but Kansas City always keeps things competitive,” Lester said. “We expect the public players to back the Broncos, but wiseguy money showed up early on the home dog, moving the spread to -3 shortly after we opened. The over will certainly be a popular play, but I’d take a long look at playing the under.”

Avello opened the Chiefs at -2.5.

“Against the Ravens, Manning and company played like it was the end of the season, and his arm appeared to be tired,” he said. “The Chiefs have dropped six straight to the Broncos and have only been the favorite once since Manning arrived in Denver.”