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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 10 - Monday, September 14)

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  • NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 10 - Monday, September 14)






    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, September 10 - Monday, September 14

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  • #2
    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, September 10


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (11 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (15 - 4) - 9/10/2015, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 167-128 ATS (+26.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, September 13

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GREEN BAY (13 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 11) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS CITY (9 - 7) at HOUSTON (9 - 7) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (7 - 9) at NY JETS (4 - 12) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 6) at BUFFALO (9 - 7) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANAPOLIS is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
    INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (8 - 8) at WASHINGTON (4 - 12) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 74-104 ATS (-40.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 74-104 ATS (-40.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 74-104 ATS (-40.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CAROLINA (8 - 9 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 13) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (14 - 5) at ST LOUIS (6 - 10) - 9/13/2015, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
    SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    ST LOUIS is 143-180 ATS (-55.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 143-180 ATS (-55.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 102-142 ATS (-54.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    ST LOUIS is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) at ARIZONA (11 - 6) - 9/13/2015, 4:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DETROIT (11 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (9 - 7) - 9/13/2015, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 77-104 ATS (-37.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
    DETROIT is 77-104 ATS (-37.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TENNESSEE (2 - 14) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 14) - 9/13/2015, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
    TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CINCINNATI (10 - 6 - 1) at OAKLAND (3 - 13) - 9/13/2015, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 37-71 ATS (-41.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BALTIMORE (11 - 7) at DENVER (12 - 5) - 9/13/2015, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY GIANTS (6 - 10) at DALLAS (13 - 5) - 9/13/2015, 8:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday, September 14

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    PHILADELPHIA (10 - 6) at ATLANTA (6 - 10) - 9/14/2015, 7:10 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing on Monday night since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MINNESOTA (7 - 9) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 8) - 9/14/2015, 10:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL
      Short Sheet

      Week 1


      Thursday - Sept, 10

      Pittsburgh at New England, 8:30 EST

      Pittsburgh: 1-7 ATS in September games
      New England: 167-128 ATS against conference opponents


      Sunday - Sept, 13

      Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 EST

      Green Bay: 9-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
      Chicago: 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season

      Kansas City at Houston, 1:00 EST
      Kansas City: 94-68 ATS in the first half of the season
      Houston: 44-24 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3

      Cleveland at New York Jets, 1:00 EST
      Cleveland: 70-42 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3
      NY Jets: 37-46 ATS in the first month of the season

      Indianapolis at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
      Indianapolis: 25-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
      Buffalo: 10-2 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

      Miami at Washington, 1:00 EST
      Miami: 210-164 UNDER in all lined games
      Washington: 7-18 ATS as an underdog

      Carolina at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
      Carolina: 84-59 UNDER as a favorite
      Jacksonville: 0-8 ATS in September games

      Seattle at ST Louis, 1:00 EST
      Seattle: 20-8 ATS against conference opponents
      ST Louis: 102-142 ATS against conference opponents

      New Orleans at Arizona, 4:05 EST
      New Orleans: 11-3 UNDER in road games against conference opponents
      Arizona: 10-3 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

      Detroit at San Diego, 4:05 EST
      Detroit: 77-104 ATS in road lined games
      San Diego: 7-0 ATS in the first month of the season

      Tennessee at Tampa Bay, 4:25 EST
      Tennessee: 42-24 ATS in non-conference games
      Tampa Bay: 2-10 ATS against AFC South division opponents

      Cincinnati at Oakland, 4:25 EST
      Cincinnati: 8-1 UNDER in road lined games
      Oakland: 8-20 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

      Baltimore at Denver, 4:25 EST
      Baltimore: 40-30 ATS in the first month of the season
      Denver: 155-102 OVER as a favorite

      New York Giants at Dallas, 8:30 EST
      NY Giants: 31-14 UNDER on road where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
      Dallas: 12-4 ATS in the first half of the season


      Monday - Sept, 14

      Philadelphia at Atlanta, 7:10 EST

      Philadelphia: 15-5 ATS in road games when playing on Monday night
      Atlanta: 4-10 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

      Minnesota at San Francisco, 10:20 EST
      Minnesota: 23-39 ATS as a road favorite
      San Francisco: 29-10 ATS when playing on Monday night

      Comment


      • #4
        NFL

        Week 1


        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Trend Report
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Thursday, September 10

        8:30 PM
        PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ENGLAND
        Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
        Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games
        The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England's last 15 games at home


        Sunday, September 13

        1:00 PM
        KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
        Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
        Houston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games at home

        1:00 PM
        GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
        Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chicago
        Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
        Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
        Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay

        1:00 PM
        MIAMI vs. WASHINGTON
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
        Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
        Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home

        1:00 PM
        INDIANAPOLIS vs. BUFFALO
        Indianapolis is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
        Indianapolis is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
        Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
        The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games

        1:00 PM
        CAROLINA vs. JACKSONVILLE
        The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games on the road
        Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home
        Jacksonville is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games at home

        1:00 PM
        CLEVELAND vs. NY JETS
        Cleveland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games at home
        NY Jets are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games at home

        1:00 PM
        SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
        Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Seattle

        4:05 PM
        DETROIT vs. SAN DIEGO
        Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 gamesThe total has gone UNDER in 12 of Detroit's last 16 games
        San Diego is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
        San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

        4:05 PM
        NEW ORLEANS vs. ARIZONA
        New Orleans is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Arizona
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Arizona
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
        Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New Orleans

        4:25 PM
        CINCINNATI vs. OAKLAND
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
        The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
        Oakland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

        4:25 PM
        TENNESSEE vs. TAMPA BAY
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games on the road
        Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
        Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at homeTampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

        4:25 PM
        BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Denver
        Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
        Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
        Denver is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games

        8:30 PM
        NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
        The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Dallas
        NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Dallas
        Dallas is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
        Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants


        Monday, September 14

        7:10 PM
        PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA

        Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
        Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
        Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

        10:20 PM
        MINNESOTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
        Minnesota is 2-14-1 SU in its last 17 games ,on the road
        Minnesota is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games
        San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Last edited by Udog; 09-06-2015, 05:28 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          NFL Opening Line Report: Brady-led Patriots touchdown favorites vs. Steelers

          Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up.

          When federal judge Richard Berman overturned Tom Brady’s four-game suspension last week, it was the metaphorical shot heard ‘round the world. And it was particularly loud and clear in Las Vegas, where the line on Thursday night’s Pittsburgh Steelers-New England Patriots game jumped by as much as a touchdown at some sportsbooks.

          Yes, the defending Super Bowl champions will have their superstar quarterback under center when the 2015 season opens. And in the wake of the ruling that cleared Brady’s way, Patriots money flooded the books – rightly so, according to Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas.

          “I don’t put the opening-week NFL lines up until the preseason is over, and this game in particular plays into the reasons why,” said Avello, who now has the Patriots (15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS in 2014) as 7-point favorites. “Tom Brady is worth approximately 6 to 7 points, and now that I know he’s in, a full touchdown is a good starting point for betting purposes. Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up, and bettors will need to decide if the 7 points will come into play in this excellent NFL opener.

          At offshore site bookmaker.ag, John Lester said his operation played it close to the vest while the Brady case made its way through the legal process.

          “Obviously, this line has been all over the place due to the Deflategate saga, but we protected ourselves a bit by pulling it during most of camp and the preseason,” said Lester, who also had the Pats at -7. “I feel that the Steelers are a tad overhyped heading into this season, and not having LeVeon Bell (suspension) in this one will hurt. The Pats are perennially slow starters, but more often than not, when drama surrounds them, they use it as motivation. “

          Along with Bell’s two-game suspension, Avello also cautioned bettors on the Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS in 2014) being without center Maurkice Pouncey, who is expected to miss 10 weeks with a broken leg.


          Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4)

          Two of the last three AFC champions collide in this Sunday matchup, with both teams holding high hopes for the 2015 season. And as much as two perennial playoff contenders can, Lester says the Ravens (11-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS in 2014) and Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) are perhaps a little overlooked, and he likes the visitor in this contest.

          “Here we have two very good teams that seem to be flying under the radar a bit, Baltimore more so than Denver,” Lester said. “I expect our sharper clients will let the public drive this spread up even further than it’s moved thus far, and then take a shot with the Ravens. They are very live dogs, in my opinion.”

          Avello expects a good game but seems to have a bit more faith in Denver.

          “The Broncos have only two home losses in the last three years and therefore one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL,” he said. “They may not be as strong offensively as they have been in the past, but may have their best defense during Manning’s tenure in Denver.

          “The Ravens always put a quality team on the field but have traditionally been slow starters.”


          New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)

          Bettors get a clash of NFC East rivals right out of the gate, and in the Sunday night prime-time spotlight, no less. New York was a dismal 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS last year, while Dallas reached the second round of the playoffs in going 13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS. Avello expects more Cowboys money on this game in the coming days.

          “New York Giants fans like myself haven’t had a lot to root for the past two years, and this season, at least on paper, doesn’t look that promising. Eli Manning has been inconsistent over that time period, and the offensive line probably plays a big part in that,” Avello said. “The Cowboys, who are coming off their best season in a decade, should compete for at least the division title. They’ve beaten the Giants four straight, and I expect the money will show up on them come Sunday night.”

          Lester, who pegged the Cowboys a 6-point chalk, echoed Avello’s sentiments

          “Some people believe in the Giants this year, but I am not one of them. The defense is a glaring concern,” he said. “This number seems about right, and the minimal line movement over the last couple of months has supported that. The Cowboys are the most public team we have.”


          Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams

          The Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS in 2014) have been to the past two Super Bowls, and if not for a horrible play call, they’d be the two-time defending champions. But they start the season with an NFC West road game against what is expected to be an improved Rams squad (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2014).
          That said, Lester still finds the number curiously low.

          “Bettors who have any sense are going to look at this line and see that it reeks of fish stench,” Lester said. “St. Louis usually plays Seattle tough (3-0 ATS last three at home), and Rams coach Jeff Fisher should be preaching to his players that this is a statement game to start the season. The squares will be all over Seattle at this short price.”

          Avello, who put Seattle at -4, also expects the Fisher-led rams to make this interesting.

          “St Louis stayed competitive in 2013 and ‘14 after losing quarterback Sam Bradford, and I attribute much of that to Coach Fisher, because I believe he’s one of the best in the league,” Avello said. “In the last three meetings at St Louis, the Rams have won twice and lost the third by five points, so going to Missouri hasn’t been a cakewalk for the Seahawks.

          “Seattle will certainly be in the hunt to win it all again, but we’re talking Game No. 1 of the season here.”

          Comment


          • #6
            NFL
            Dunkel

            Week 1


            Pittsburgh @ New England

            Game 461-462
            September 10, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Pittsburgh
            133.226
            New England
            148.273
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            New England
            by 15
            48
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            New England
            by 7
            52
            Dunkel Pick:
            New England
            (-7); Under


            Detroit @ San Diego


            Game 479-480
            September 13, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Detroit
            135.101
            San Diego
            132.099
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Detroit
            by 3
            41
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            San Diego
            by 3
            46
            Dunkel Pick:
            Detroit
            (+3); Under

            Tennessee @ Tampa Bay


            Game 481-482
            September 13, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Tennessee
            115.971
            Tampa Bay
            126.498
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Tampa Bay
            by 10 1/2
            44
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Tampa Bay
            by 3
            41
            Dunkel Pick:
            Tampa Bay
            (-3); Over

            Cincinnati @ Oakland


            Game 483-484
            September 13, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Cincinnati
            137.820
            Oakland
            127.803
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Cincinnati
            by 10
            39
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Cincinnati
            by 3 1/2
            43 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Cincinnati
            (-3 1/2); Under

            Green Bay @ Chicago


            Game 463-464
            September 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Green Bay
            143.240
            Chicago
            122.810
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Green Bay
            by 20 1/2
            54
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Green Bay
            by 6 1/2
            50
            Dunkel Pick:
            Green Bay
            (-6 1/2); Over

            Baltimore @ Denver


            Game 485-486
            September 13, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Baltimore
            138.908
            Denver
            140.257
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Denver
            by 1 1/2
            52
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Denver
            by 4 1/2
            48 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Baltimore
            (+4 1/2); Over

            Kansas City @ Houston


            Game 465-466
            September 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Kansas City
            136.634
            Houston
            130.078
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Kansas City
            by 6 1/2
            37
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Houston
            by 1 1/2
            41
            Dunkel Pick:
            Kansas City
            (+1 1/2); Under

            NY Giants @ Dallas


            Game 487-488
            September 13, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            NY Giants
            134.710
            Dallas
            137.522
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Dallas
            by 3
            48
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Dallas
            by 6
            51 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            NY Giants
            (+6); Under

            Cleveland @ NY Jets


            Game 467-468
            September 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Cleveland
            126.552
            NY Jets
            125.578
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Cleveland
            by 1
            43
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            NY Jets
            by 3
            39 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Cleveland
            (+3); Over

            Indianapolis @ Buffalo


            Game 469-470
            September 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Indianapolis
            131.803
            Buffalo
            139.254
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Buffalo
            by 7 1/2
            42
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Indianapolis
            by 3
            47
            Dunkel Pick:
            Buffalo
            (+3); Under

            Miami @ Washington


            Game 471-472
            September 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Miami
            132.573
            Washington
            134.740
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Washington
            by 2
            47
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Miami
            by 4
            43
            Dunkel Pick:
            Washington
            (+4); Over

            Carolina @ Jacksonville


            Game 473-474
            September 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Carolina
            132.137
            Jacksonville
            120.072
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Carolina
            by 12
            44
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Carolina
            by 3
            41
            Dunkel Pick:
            Carolina
            (-3); Over

            Seattle @ St. Louis


            Game 475-476
            September 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Seattle
            144.362
            St. Louis
            132.506
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Seattle
            by 12
            38
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Seattle
            by 3 1/2
            42
            Dunkel Pick:
            Seattle
            (-3 1/2); Under

            New Orleans @ Arizona


            Game 477-478
            September 13, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            New Orleans
            128.377
            Arizona
            127.599
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            New Orleans
            by 1
            53
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Arizona
            by 3
            47 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            New Orleans
            (+3); Over



            Philadelphia @ Atlanta

            Game 489-490
            September 14, 2015 @ 7:10 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Philadelphia
            131.407
            Atlanta
            125.719
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Philadelphia
            by 5 1/2
            59
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Philadelphia
            by 2 1/2
            55
            Dunkel Pick:
            Philadelphia
            (-2 1/2); Over

            Minnesota @ San Francisco


            Game 491-492
            September 14, 2015 @ 10:20 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Minnesota
            133.488
            San Francisco
            128.052
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Minnesota
            by 5 1/2
            36
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Minnesota
            by 2 1/2
            41 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Minnesota
            (-2 1/2); Under

            Comment


            • #7
              NFL
              Armadillo's Write-Up

              Thursday, September 10


              Steelers @ Patriots-- Pats are 5-0-1 vs spread as favorite of less than 9 points in their home opener; since '07, they're 23-14-1 as non-divisional home faves, 16-8 vs spread in last 24 games where spread was 3 or less points. Steelers lost last four road openers, all by 10+ points. Pats won five of last seven games with Pitt; average total in last nine series games is 54.7. Since '97, Steelers are 1-8 as an underdog in its road openers. Over is 28-12 in Patriot home games the last five years. Since '02, defending Super Bowl champ is 8-3-2 vs spread in next season's opener. Dick LeBeau was forced out as Steelers' DC; lot of changes in the Pittsburgh defense. Change isn't always good.

              Comment


              • #8
                NFL Opening Line Report: Broncos open -4 vs. Ravens

                Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up.

                When federal judge Richard Berman overturned Tom Brady’s four-game suspension last week, it was the metaphorical shot heard ‘round the world. And it was particularly loud and clear in Las Vegas, where the line on Thursday night’s Pittsburgh Steelers-New England Patriots game jumped by as much as a touchdown at some sportsbooks.

                Yes, the defending Super Bowl champions will have their superstar quarterback under center when the 2015 season opens. And in the wake of the ruling that cleared Brady’s way, Patriots money flooded the books – rightly so, according to Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas.

                “I don’t put the opening-week NFL lines up until the preseason is over, and this game in particular plays into the reasons why,” said Avello, who now has the Patriots (15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS in 2014) as 7-point favorites. “Tom Brady is worth approximately 6 to 7 points, and now that I know he’s in, a full touchdown is a good starting point for betting purposes. Over the past 10 seasons, the Pats have won 83 percent of their home games straight-up, and bettors will need to decide if the 7 points will come into play in this excellent NFL opener.

                At offshore site bookmaker.ag, John Lester said his operation played it close to the vest while the Brady case made its way through the legal process.

                “Obviously, this line has been all over the place due to the Deflategate saga, but we protected ourselves a bit by pulling it during most of camp and the preseason,” said Lester, who also had the Pats at -7. “I feel that the Steelers are a tad overhyped heading into this season, and not having LeVeon Bell (suspension) in this one will hurt. The Pats are perennially slow starters, but more often than not, when drama surrounds them, they use it as motivation. “

                Along with Bell’s two-game suspension, Avello also cautioned bettors on the Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS in 2014) being without center Maurkice Pouncey, who is expected to miss 10 weeks with a broken leg.

                Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4)

                Two of the last three AFC champions collide in this Sunday matchup, with both teams holding high hopes for the 2015 season. And as much as two perennial playoff contenders can, Lester says the Ravens (11-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS in 2014) and Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) are perhaps a little overlooked, and he likes the visitor in this contest.

                “Here we have two very good teams that seem to be flying under the radar a bit, Baltimore more so than Denver,” Lester said. “I expect our sharper clients will let the public drive this spread up even further than it’s moved thus far, and then take a shot with the Ravens. They are very live dogs, in my opinion.”

                Avello expects a good game but seems to have a bit more faith in Denver.

                “The Broncos have only two home losses in the last three years and therefore one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL,” he said. “They may not be as strong offensively as they have been in the past, but may have their best defense during Manning’s tenure in Denver.

                “The Ravens always put a quality team on the field but have traditionally been slow starters.”

                New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5)

                Bettors get a clash of NFC East rivals right out of the gate, and in the Sunday night prime-time spotlight, no less. New York was a dismal 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS last year, while Dallas reached the second round of the playoffs in going 13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS. Avello expects more Cowboys money on this game in the coming days.

                “New York Giants fans like myself haven’t had a lot to root for the past two years, and this season, at least on paper, doesn’t look that promising. Eli Manning has been inconsistent over that time period, and the offensive line probably plays a big part in that,” Avello said. “The Cowboys, who are coming off their best season in a decade, should compete for at least the division title. They’ve beaten the Giants four straight, and I expect the money will show up on them come Sunday night.”

                Lester, who pegged the Cowboys a 6-point chalk, echoed Avello’s sentiments

                “Some people believe in the Giants this year, but I am not one of them. The defense is a glaring concern,” he said. “This number seems about right, and the minimal line movement over the last couple of months has supported that. The Cowboys are the most public team we have.”

                Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams

                The Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS in 2014) have been to the past two Super Bowls, and if not for a horrible play call, they’d be the two-time defending champions. But they start the season with an NFC West road game against what is expected to be an improved Rams squad (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2014).
                That said, Lester still finds the number curiously low.

                “Bettors who have any sense are going to look at this line and see that it reeks of fish stench,” Lester said. “St. Louis usually plays Seattle tough (3-0 ATS last three at home), and Rams coach Jeff Fisher should be preaching to his players that this is a statement game to start the season. The squares will be all over Seattle at this short price.”

                Avello, who put Seattle at -4, also expects the Fisher-led rams to make this interesting.

                “St Louis stayed competitive in 2013 and ‘14 after losing quarterback Sam Bradford, and I attribute much of that to Coach Fisher, because I believe he’s one of the best in the league,” Avello said. “In the last three meetings at St Louis, the Rams have won twice and lost the third by five points, so going to Missouri hasn’t been a cakewalk for the Seahawks.

                “Seattle will certainly be in the hunt to win it all again, but we’re talking Game No. 1 of the season here.”

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL Line Watch: Don't wait for Colts to become field goal faves

                  Spread to bet now

                  Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)


                  The Bills apparently are going to be the first team in NFL history to try to win a game without a quarterback, going with Tyrod Taylor and basically telling the world that Buffalo will be running the ball 70 percent of the time and hoping its defense gets it done. It’s no surprise, then, that they are home dogs in the opener.

                  The Colt defense hasn’t undergone a major upgrade and was merely mediocre last season, but it won’t have to be overpowering in this one. Assuming even an average effort from Indianapolis’ offense, the Colts should be able to cover 2.5. Good idea to get in before it becomes a field-goal line.

                  Spread to wait on

                  Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)


                  The line in this one has bounced around from a pick ‘em to Philadelphia -3, depending on where you shop, and the feeling is that it will not go off at 2.5 on the early Monday night kickoff. Atlanta basically devoted its draft to defense after several dreadful performances last season, but the upgrades may need a month or more to get comfortable.

                  The Falcons also have a new coaching staff, which was mandated after the team lost 22 of its last 32 games. In Philadelphia, Chip Kelly is constantly adapting and not afraid to trade away stars. He now has a new QB (Sam Bradford) running the show as last year’s starter, Mark Sanchez, is relegated to No. 2.

                  Total to watch

                  Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (52)


                  The angry Patriots waged war on the NFL in the wake of SpyGate in 2007, running up a total of 589 points against 16 befuddled opponents as oddsmakers struggled to produce totals high enough. Could it happen again post-Deflategate?

                  There may be high numbers again, but it might not be the result of a Patriots offense that enters the year banged up at the WR position. New England’s defense appears back in bend-don’t-break mode after letting most of its 2014 secondary walk away, and there are questions whether at 37 years old, Tom Brady can again make up for it on the other end. Both the Steelers and Pats were OK (9-7) teams at playing Over the total last year.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL

                    Thursday, September 10



                    Steelers haven't been a good bet in September

                    The Pittsburgh Steelers hold the dubious distinction of being ice cold at the betting in September, posting a record of 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games in the month.

                    Last season, the Steelers went 1-3 ATS (2-2 straight up) after going 0-4 SU and ATS in September in the 2013 season.

                    Faithful Steelers backers will hope for better results in 2015, beginning with the curtain raiser Thursday night. Pittsburgh is currently pegged as a 7-point underdog at Tom Brady and the New England Patriots Thursday evening.


                    Possible thunderstorms for Thursday night game

                    According to weather forecasts, there is a 75 percent possibility of thunderstorms that could impact the Thursday night season opener between the Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

                    Temperatures will be in the high-60s when the game kicks off before dipping to the mid-60s. Wind won't play much of a role with gusts blowing across the field at around 3 miles per hour.


                    Insane NFL Week 1 betting trend involving Super Bowl teams

                    One glaring NFL Week 1 football betting trend that has shown up since the turn of the century has to do with teams coming off an appearance in the Super Bowl the year before.

                    Defending Super Bowl champs have ridden that wave of momentum to a stellar 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS record in Week 1 the following season since 2000, most recently the Seattle Seahawks beating the Green Bay Packers 36-16 as 4.5-point favorites in a Thursday night opener last September.

                    The team that lost in the Big Game isn’t so lucky. Apparently, getting over that crushing defeat takes more than an offseason, with Super Bowl losers going 6-9 SU and only 3-12 ATS the last 15 seasons. The Denver Broncos, who were blown out by Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII, defeated the Indianapolis Colts 31-24 in Week 1 but couldn’t cover the 8-point spread.

                    That puts the spotlight on the defending champion New England Patriots and Seahawks in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign.


                    Kam Chancellor, Seattle - Out Sun

                    Chancellor is dealing with contract issues and will not play Sunday against the Rams.


                    It's official: Barnes is Rams' starting center

                    EARTH CITY, Mo. - After a summer-long three-player competition that stretched through the final preseason game, Tim Barnes was announced as the St. Louis Rams' starting center Wednesday.

                    Barnes will be in the middle of an offensive line that features two rookie starters - third-round pick Jamon Brown at left guard and second-rounder Rob Havenstein at right tackle - second-year left tackle Greg Robinson and right guard Rodger Saffold. Barnes, who has started four games in his career, won the job after a battle with Demetrius Rhaney and Barrett Jones, who was waived in the cutdown to 53 players Saturday.

                    Head coach Jeff Fisher said of Barnes, "Whenever he's gotten a chance to play, he's done a good job. Last year he battled through some minor injuries and things, but thus far he's stayed very healthy, feels good, had a good offseason. He's very comfortable with (quarterback) Nick (Foles), the two of them are working really well together.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      NFL

                      Thursday, September 10


                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Thursday Night Football betting preview: Steelers at Patriots
                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Not only will the Pats celebrate their Super Bowl victory during a pregame ceremony, but fans are still rejoicing after a federal judge overturned Tom Brady's four-game suspension.

                      Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 52)

                      There promises to be a festive atmosphere at Gillette Stadium when the New England Patriots open defense of their Super Bowl championship by hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night in the kickoff to the NFL season. Not only will the Patriots celebrate their Super Bowl victory during a pregame ceremony, but fans of the team are still rejoicing after a federal judge overturned quarterback Tom Brady's four-game suspension.

                      The Deflategate saga and the possibility of three-time Super Bowl MVP Brady missing the first four games of the season had cast a pall over New England before Commissioner Roger Goodell's suspension was thrown out in court last week. The Patriots own a 15-1 record at home over the past two seasons, but they face a tough test against the reigning AFC North champion Steelers, whose 41 wins on Kickoff Weekend rank No. 1 among AFC teams. "We are excited about the quick transition and for our opener on Thursday night," Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said. "We are ready to play ball Thursday night and to get this season going." The Steelers will be missing an integral part of their offense as star running back Le'Veon Bell serves the first of a two-game suspension.

                      TV:
                      8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

                      LINE HISTORY:
                      The Pats opened -2.5 before that moved to -7 after Tom Brady's suspension was overturned. The total opened at 48.5 and now sits at 52.

                      WEATHER:
                      Forecasts are calling for a 75 percent chance of thunderstorms with temperatures in the high-60s.

                      INJURY REPORT:
                      Steelers - DE Stephon Tuitt (Questionable, ankle), WR Martavis Bryant (Eligible Week 5), RB Le'Veon Bell (Eligible Week 3). Patriots - C Bryan Stork (Out, concussion), LB Dont'a Hightower (Questionable, shoulder), RB LaGarrette Blount (Eligible Week 2).

                      WHAT CAPPERS SAY:
                      "The Patriots have won the AFC East title six straight years and in eleven of the last twelve years overall. New England’s defense was solid last season, but shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis left for the Jets in free agency, and his loss will have a big impact on the Patriots’ defense. Fortunately for New England, QB Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned, and he will play in this game. Pittsburgh squeezed into a playoff spot last season, but they’ll be hard-pressed to return to the post-season in 2015. The Steelers are an old and aging team with a defense that needs a major makeover. Pittsburgh somehow went 6-1 versus winning teams despite a mediocre defense that allowed 368 points during the season. Pittsburgh snapped a 2-year playoff drought last season, but they’ll likely revert back to a non-playoff season in 2015." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

                      WHAT BOOKS SAY:
                      "When we put this game back on the board we made the Patriots 7-point chalk. After taking a wiseguy wager on Pittsburgh we moved to -6.5. That number lasted a few days and has bounced around between it and a touchdown since. We're split on the side as far as handle but certainly we've taken more bets on the Pats as the public is getting geared up for Week 1. The total has crept up from our open of 50.5, which is expected with a pair of high-profile offenses on national TV. We haven't had much interest in the total outside of mainstream players."

                      ABOUT THE STEELERS (2014: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U):
                      Pittsburgh featured the NFL's second-ranked offense last season and a big reason was the talents of Bell, who ranked second in the league with 1,361 rushing yards and added 83 receptions for 854 yards. With former Carolina back D'Angelo Williams set to spell Bell, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will likely take to the air as he looks to build upon a stellar campaign in which he established a career best in passing yardage (4,952) while throwing for 32 touchdowns versus only nine interceptions. Roethlisberger has the league's most productive wideout in Antonio Brown, who topped the league in receptions (129) and yards (1,698) while becoming only the fourth player in league history to post consecutive seasons with at least 110 catches. Longtime defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau resigned in the offseason and was replaced by Keith Butler, who must shore up a unit that ranked among bottom fourth of the league in sacks, interceptions and passing yards surrendered.

                      ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2014: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U):
                      New England will also be without its top running back due to the one-game suspension for LeGarrette Blount who, ironically, was a member of the Steelers and a passenger in Bell's car when the duo was arrested on marijuana charges during the 2014 preseason. Brandon Bolden is expected to get the start while James White, Dion Lewis and Travaris Cadet may also see time in the backfield, but the focus for the Steelers will be shutting down Brady and behemoth tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brady threw for 33 TDs against only nine interceptions last season and more than a third of those scoring passes (12) went to Gronkowski, who had 82 receptions for 1,124 yards while reaching double digits in touchdowns for the fourth time in five seasons. The Patriots suffered a huge blow in the secondary with the loss of both of their starting cornerbacks in the offseason, including all-world Darrelle Revis, leaving Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler atop the depth chart at that position.

                      TRENDS:


                      * Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
                      * Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New England.
                      * Over is 6-1 in Patriots last seven Thursday games.
                      * Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in September.

                      CONSENSUS:
                      Fifty-three percent of users are backing the Patriots.

                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        NFL

                        Thursday, September 10


                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        NFL football betting trends to watch in September
                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        The Dallas Cowboys were 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread last season in away outings.

                        The pig is finally in the air.

                        That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘players’ alike.

                        Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

                        Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”

                        Play accordingly.

                        HOME TEAMS

                        Keep an eye on (Good): Detroit has been notoriously fast starters for years and is 29-16 ATS on a field where Eminem calls home. The lone home game will not be easy, facing Denver.

                        Baltimore is still a respectable 28-16 ATS at home, but is not as strong under coach John Harbaugh. Let's see if they flex their muscles against Cincinnati on the 27th of the month.

                        Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona is just 14-23 ATS in the desert this month and has home games against New Orleans in Week 1 and San Francisco in Week 3. Definitely worth watching.

                        The New York Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick as their signal caller for now. Cleveland is in New Jersey for the season lid-lifter and Philadelphia two weeks later as the Flyboys try and improve on 18-28 ATS mark the first month of the season at home.

                        Cincinnati is a miserable 15-25 ATS this month and probably fortunately just has San Diego in Week 2 on the banks of the Ohio River.

                        Washington has been laboring at home for years and is 16-27 ATS before the home crowd. Having Miami and St. Louis the first two weeks, we will find out quickly if Robert Griffin III is really is among the best quarterbacks in the NFL as he recently proclaimed, or whether Kirk Cousins is really the answer.


                        AWAY TEAMS

                        Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is money on the road to begin the season at 30-17 ATS and has two chances to better that record: In the opener at Houston and the Week 3 Monday nighter at Lambeau.

                        Dallas was 8-0 and 7-1 ATS last season in away outings, which helped build a recent 29-16 ATS mark. That makes the Week 2 battle at Philly worth waiting for.

                        Keep an eye on (Bad): It has never made sense why a franchise as consistently good as Pittsburgh struggles early on the road and is a dismal 15-29 ATS. They might catch a bit of a break being in New England for Game 1 of the season. Seventeen days later they will be in St. Louis.

                        Speaking of the Rams, they are only marginally better at 15-28 ATS, but found a home team as bad as they are in Washington, leaving football bettors to choose the lesser of two evils.


                        FAVORITES

                        Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is a rock solid 29-16 ATS favorite, however, like usual will be tested at St. Louis in the opener. Two weeks later they will likely have an easier time facing Jay Cutler and the Bears.

                        Bad: With the Cardinals a lousy home team, it stands to reason they would be a mediocre favorite. At 7-18 ATS in September, this is as bad as it gets, so let's see of the Saints and Niners can expose them again as frauds in that role.

                        If you have too much money, we have a perfect solution... bet Carolina as favorites this month. The Panthers are 8-18 and should be favored in all three games in September!

                        St. Louis fits the bill also at 12-25 ATS, however, we know they will not be a favorite against Seattle in the first contest and chances are will not being handing out points at the Redskins or home to Pittsburgh. Watch the numbers and keep this in mind.


                        UNDERDOGS

                        Good: The Dallas Cowboys thrive in this role at a sensational 26-12 against the number. Their Week 2 showdown at Philly will be their lone chance to improve on record.

                        Keep an eye on (Good): With road games at Houston and Green Bay, Kansas City will be an underdog and seeking to improve on 27-17 ATS. In between those contests is a home date with rival Denver and based on the past two years in this matchup at Arrowhead, the Chiefs might actually not be favored until their fifth contest.

                        Bad: We already mentioned the Steelers slow starts and they are 10-21 ATS when catching points this month. They are underdogs at New England, with a Week 3 nonconference clash at St. Louis to be determined later.


                        DIVISION

                        Good: The Chiefs home opener will on Thursday night against Denver on the 17th and K.C. is a dandy 23-11 ATS in that role.

                        Keep an eye on (Bad): With New England's quarterback situation temporarily settled with Tom Brady back, we’ll see whether the added weight and the bull eye of being defending Super Bowl champs weighs on the Pats disappointing 16-24 ATS vs. the AFC East.

                        Cincinnati is a fairly disheartening 13-20 ATS against the AFC North early on, and its first division confrontation of 2015 will be at Baltimore.


                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

                          LeSean McCoy scorched the Colts for 102 total yards and a touchdown as a member of the Eagles last season. The Bills will look to run vs. Indianapolis in Week 1.

                          Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:

                          Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 45)

                          Colts’ rushing defense vs. Bills’ run-heavy playbook

                          Rex Ryan isn’t keeping his offensive gameplan under wraps for his debut as the Bills head coach. Ryan pretty much tipped his pitch when he announced Tyrod Taylor as his starting quarterback, meaning expect a lot of rushing plays from Buffalo as they try to control the clock and keep Andrew Luck off the field. New running back LeSean McCoy is ready to roll and looking to do similar damage to the Colts defense as he did last season with the Eagles.

                          McCoy and former running mate Darren Sproles torched Indianapolis in Week 2, totaling 105 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while adding another 175 yards on catch-and-runs from short looks and screen passes. The Colts suffered a similar fate against Steelers RB LeVeon Bell in Week 8, giving up 92 yards rushing and 56 yards through the air to Pittsburgh’s versatile rusher. Indianapolis, which gave up 113.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry in 2014, also hasn’t faced a true dual-threat QB since Week 5 of the 2013 season when Seattle QB Russel Wilson tacked on 102 rushing yards to his 210 passing gains and two touchdowns.

                          Daily fantasy watch: RB LeSean McCoy, QB Tyrod Taylor


                          Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4, 48.5)

                          Ravens’ Week 1 conditioning vs. Altitude at Mile High

                          The Broncos hold one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, with the thin air at Sports Authority Field challenging the conditioning of visiting teams. Even in the middle of the schedule, when teams are in game shape, the altitude can leave opponents sucking wind in the final frame of the game. That impact is felt even more in Week 1 of the NFL season, when teams are in camp/preseason shape but not yet in peak physical condition. If you’ve ever player high-level sports, you know the only thing that can really get you into game shape is playing games.

                          Denver has dominated visitors in its home openers, losing just once in front of the Mile High faithful in the past 15 seasons. And the team uses this to their advantage, with Peyton Manning putting his foot down on the gas pedal and forcing opponents to pick up the pace with his no-huddle attack. The Broncos new offense, under Gary Kubiak, is blending that up-tempo style with his renowned smash-mouth zone-blocking rush, which should leave rivals running on empty. Baltimore has been in this spot before, losing a 49-27 Week 1 matchup in Denver as defending Super Bowl champs in 2013, buckling for 35 points the second half.

                          Daily fantasy watch: QB Peyton Manning, RB C.J. Anderson, TE Owen Daniels


                          Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+3.5, 43.5)

                          Bengals’ kick return talent vs. Raiders’ weak kick coverage

                          The Raiders had numerous faults in 2014, so singling out just one is like saying Al Davis had ugly teeth. However, for the purpose of this mismatch, Oakland’s trouble with kick coverage is the main culprit. The team allowed opponents to average 32.5 return yards on kickoffs – worst in the NFL – and 10.9 return yards on punts – fifth worst. Opponents of the Black & Silver started their offensive drives at an average just the 32-yard line, which snowballed into a defense that allowed a NFL-worst 28.3 points per game in 2014. The Raiders did added special teams standout Lorenzo Alexander, who was cut by Arizona. But it's a nice character hire of a hometown guy and merely a finger in the dam for Oakland's not-so special teams.

                          The Bengals are loaded with special teams talent, especially on their return team. Cincinnati still has Adam Jones returning kicks, coming off a season in which he lead the league in average yards per kickoff return (31.3) and finished second in average yards per punt return (11.9). Behind “Pacman”, Cincy has WR Brandon Tate, RB Giovanni Bernard, and rookie speedster Mario Alford from West Virginia, who ran a 4.43 second 40-yard dash at the combine. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense benefited from an average starting spot of almost the 30-yard line in 2014 (29.89).

                          Daily fantasy watch: Bengals defense/special teams


                          New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5)

                          Giants’ small defensive line vs. Cowboys’ massive blockers

                          Tony Romo and Dez Bryant may sell the most jerseys but the real stars of the Cowboys are the offensive linemen. Dallas dominated the trenches last season, helping the team own the football for 32:13 per game and giving Romo time to drop back, read the defense, read his stacks of hate mail, then find the open receiver. The starting offensive line runs an average height of over 6-foot-4 and combines to weigh 1,590 pounds – or about the same as a U-HAUL van minus the furniture. And that’s not counting the other bodies on the bench, like La'el Collins who runs 6-foot-4 and 321 pounds.

                          The G-Men started the season light on the defensive line, playing without top pass rusher DE Jason Pierre Paul, who blew off his index finger with Fourth of July fireworks. The Giants defensive line is smaller and built for speed, topping out at starting DT Johnathan Hankins (320 pounds), and gets diminutive very quickly once they start going down the depth chart. New York doesn’t have a lineman that demands a double team, which means maximum protection for Romo and gives the Cowboys extra blockers in TEs and RBs to pick up the blitz.

                          Daily fantasy watch: QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten, RB Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden

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                          • #14
                            NFL

                            Friday, September 11



                            Bears have been a terrible bet against the Packers

                            The Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers rivalry has been pretty lopsided in recent years which has translated to the betting window.

                            Chicago is a measly 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Pack. The Monsters of the Midway specifically haven't put up much of a fight at home against Aaron Rodgers and company, failing to cover the spread in five-straight tilts with the green and gold at Soldier Field.

                            Oddsmakers initially opened the Pack as 5-point favorites but that's since risen to -6.5. The total is currently sitting at 49 at most books.


                            Giants WR Cruz, LB Beason ruled out vs. Cowboys

                            Wide receiver Victor Cruz has been ruled out of the New York Giants' season opener at the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night due to a calf injury that has plagued him since the middle of August.

                            Cruz has yet to resume running and coach Tom Coughlin declined to speculate on when Cruz may return to the field.

                            "He's getting better, he's getting better. He's improved, no doubt," Coughlin said. "As soon as he's ready to go, he'll be on the field and practicing. Until that time, we're all trying to figure out when exactly he'll be ready. "

                            Linebacker Jon Beason has also been ruled out due to a knee injury.

                            "He just didn't get any better," Coughlin said. "Didn't get to the point where he felt he could play, and play the way he would like to. And the medical people agreed."


                            Bucs WR Evans questionable to face Titans

                            The Tampa Bay Buccaneers officially listed wide receiver Mike Evans as questionable for Sunday's season opener against the Tennessee Titans due to a hamstring injury.

                            Evans took part in limited practice Friday for the first time all week. He first injured the hamstring during an Aug. 24 preseason game.

                            "He was able to run around a little bit, didn't have any pain or anything like that, so we are on the road to recovery," Bucs head coach Lovie Smith said. "How soon he gets back full speed and how soon he’s ready to actually play, each day will tell us a little bit more."

                            Evans said, "There is no official ruling yet. I hope I'm playing. I'll leave it up to (Smith, though."

                            Defensive end T.J. Fatinikun (shoulder) was listed as out, while cornerback Mike Jenkins (hamstring) is questionable and defensive end George Johnson (illness) is probable.

                            Nose tackle Sammie Lee Hill was ruled out by the Titans due to a knee injury.


                            RG3 cleared, but Gruden mum on Redskins backup QB

                            Robert Griffin III was listed as probable on the Washington Redskins' injury report Friday, but coach Jay Gruden declined to say whether he will serve as starter Kirk Cousins' primary backup in Sunday's regular-season opener against the Miami Dolphins.

                            RG3 has been recovering from a concussion suffered during the preseason and was cleared medically to participate in contact drills, but Colt McCoy received the bulk of the playing time during the exhibition season.

                            "I'm probably the only coach in the league that gets questions on their 46-man roster on a Thursday," Gruden said when asked if RG3 will be Cousins' backup. "We have until Sunday afternoon to turn in our 46-man roster and we're going to do that with everybody."

                            Gruden said RG3 has been taking part in individual drills and some team activity on the field and there is nothing physically that would prevent him from playing Sunday.

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                            • #15

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