The Bum's 2015 College Football All You Need To Know- Trends, Picks, News Etc.

[StarDust Bum]

RECAPPING THURSDAY'S ACTION :

CFB: 1 - 1 -0 THURSDAY
CFB: 0 - 0 FRIDAY


COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

single play:.......................................11 - 13 - 1
double play:......................................16 - 13
triple play:........................................10 - 6
blow out:..........................................4 - 3
gow:.............................................. . ..0 - 0
gom:.............................................. . .0 - 0
goy............................................... . ..0 - 0

[StarDust Bum]

FSU at Boston College

September 15, 2015


Florida State hasn't lost an ACC game since Oct. 6 of 2012, winning 24 in a row in league play. Jimbo Fisher's team will put that streak on the line when it ventures to Chestnut Hill on a short week to face Boston College on Friday night.

As of Tuesday afternoon, most betting shops had FSU (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point road favorite. The total for 'over/under' wagers was 49.5 after several offshores had it at 51 on the send-out. Gamblers can take the Eagles on the money line for a +260 return (risk $100 to win $260).

FSU hosted South Florida this past Saturday for an early 11:30 a.m. Eastern kickoff. It took the Seminoles some time to get going, as they went to intermission in a 7-7 tie with the Bulls.

In the third quarter, however, sophomore RB Dalvin Cook revived his teammates and sparked his team on a 17-0 run. FSU would eventually collect a 34-14 win, but it failed to cover the number as a 28.5-point home 'chalk.' The 48 combined points stayed 'under' the 53.5-point total.

Cook was nothing short of sensational, rushing 30 times for 266 yards and three touchdowns. His 74-yard TD scamper in the first quarter was basically the only FSU offense generated in the first half. Cook also scored on runs of 37 and 24 yards in the second half.

Everett Golson completed 14-of-26 passes for 163 yards and one TD without an interception. For the season thus far, Golson has connected on 64.7 percent of his throws for 465 yards with a 5/0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Cook has entered the early discussion for the Heisman Trophy by rushing for 422 yards and five TDs while averaging an eye-opening 8.6 yards per carry. Cook leads the SEC and ranks second in the nation in rushing yards.

Travis Rudolph has been Golson's favorite target to date, hauling in 10 catches for 99 yards and one TD. Jesus Wilson has six receptions for 107 yards and two TDs.

FSU opened the season with a 59-16 thrashing of Dennis Franchione's Texas St. team from out of the Sun Belt Conference.

Boston College (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) has beaten a pair of cupcake opponents. In its lid-lifter at home, BC knocked off Maine by a 24-3 count as a 26.5-point favorite. The defense was dynamite, limiting the Black Bears to only eight first downs and 91 yards of total offense. Tyler Rouse ran for a team-best 81 yards and two TDs on just eight carries. Darius Wade, a true sophomore signal caller making his first career start, completed 14-of-25 passes for 155 yards and one TD without an interception.

Steve Addazio's squad rolled to a 76-0 win over Howard last weekend as a 44-point home 'chalk.' However, since both coaches agree at halftime to play 10-minute quarters in the second half, all wagers on the side and total were ruled no-plays because the game didn't go the 55 minutes required for bets to be declared official.

The Eagles raced out to a 41-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and the score was 62-0 by intermission. (This clearly left backers of 'over' 58.5 extremely disappointed!) Rouse rushed six times for 36 yards and three TDs, while freshman QB Jeff Smith ran for 89 yards and three scored on only five carries.

The BC defense limited Howard to a grand total of 11 yards and two first downs. This unit hasn't faced any FBS competition yet, but we'll nonetheless note that it currently ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. This group returned six starters from last year's defense that gave up 21.3 points per game.

When these teams met at this venue in 2013, eighth-ranked and unbeaten FSU saw BC jump out to a 17-3 lead. But the 'Noles would respond with 21 unanswered points, including a 55-yard Hail Mary TD pass from Jameis Winston to Kenny Shaw to put them ahead for good on the final play of the first half.

Fisher's team would go on to capture a 48-34 win, but the Eagles easily covered the number as 23-point home underdogs. The 82 combined points obliterated the 53.5-point total.

In the ACC finale for both teams last November in Tallahassee, an unranked 6-5 Boston College team went to Doak Campbell Stadium with plans of placing a blemish on the resume of the nation's top-ranked and unbeaten 'Noles. Those plans nearly came to fruition, but FSU's Robert Aguayo buried a 26-yard field goal with three ticks remaining to lift his team to a 20-17 win. The Eagles took the cash as 17-point 'dogs, while the 37 combined points stayed 'under' the 57.5-point tally.

FSU has won five in a row over BC, but the Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries. BC won the 2009 game 28-21 in what turned out to be the loss that turned even Bobby Bowden's most ardent of supporters against him in his final season at the helm.

As a road favorite during Fisher's six-year tenure, FSU owns an 11-10 spread record in 21 such spots. BC has compiled a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories in six games as a home underdog on Addazio's watch.

ESPN will have Friday's telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- In Friday's late game on the Pac-12 Network, Arizona State will take on New Mexico at 10:00 p.m. Eastern. As of early Tuesday afternoon, most books had the Sun Devils listed as 28-point home favorites. During Todd Graham's tenure, ASU has posted an 11-7 spread record in 18 games as a home 'chalk.' Meanwhile, New Mexico has gone 10-7 ATS in 17 games as a road 'dog on Bob Davie's watch.

-- New Mexico blasted Mississippi Valley St. 66-0 in its opener, but it lost a 40-21 decision to Tulsa as a six-point home favorite in Week 2. ASU wasn't impressive last week, either, slipping past Cal Poly by a 35-21 score as a 34.5-point home favorite.

-- Ole Miss owns a 5-2 spread record in seven games as a road underdog under Hugh Freeze. The Rebels will travel to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama at 9:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Crimson Tide favored by 6.5 points.

--South Carolina has a 17-11-1 ATS record in 29 games as a road underdog during Steve Spurrier's tenure. The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in 10 games as double-digit 'dogs. They are catching 16.5 points Saturday at Georgia.

-- Kentucky has limped to a 1-5-2 ATS record in seven games as a home underdog on Mark Stoops's watch. The 'Cats are three-point 'dogs vs. Florida this weekend. The SEC Network will have the telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Notes - Week 3

September 17, 2015


Another solid job last week, as we accurately predicted the middling of the total in the East Carolina-Florida game and suggested avoiding our usual policy of fading the public movement game of the week.

I've received some great feedback this season, so hopefully everyone who enjoys these articles is cashing some tickets.

On to this week...

1) Correct sharp movement: Utah State/Washington UNDER

Sharps have moved the total in the Utah State-Washington game from the opener of 47 down to 44 and I expect this one to close slightly lower. This is one instance where actually "watching" the games has helped gamblers divine a wager. This number would likely have been bet down simply based on the way these two teams have played to open the season, however, having some visual recognition of certain events has driven the line further.

Utah State QB Keeton has missed the better parts of two seasons with knee injuries and in the games he's played surrounding those injuries, he's not resembled the dynamic player we saw in 2012-13. Those who watched him play last week at Utah saw him struggle in the passing game (2 INTs) and take a hit to his knee that left him limping towards the end of the game. Also, viewing bettors have seen Utah State face Utah (38 combined points) and Washington face Boise State (29 combined pts) and expect a similarly styled matchup here. Utah State must rely on it's defense to win and with Huskies head coach Chris Peterson showing a willingness to play conservatively, sharps have pounced on a soft opening number.

2) Incorrect sharp movement: Wake Forest/Army OVER

Sharps betting the Wake Forest-Army game OVER will have their work cut out for them. This Army offense could be very bad and Wake Forest enters off mustering 46 yards rushing on 1.4 yards per carry vs UConn. These two teams are very familiar with one another (meeting for 4th consecutive year) and over the last two seasons have averaged just 40.5 points per game. The pace of this game should be slow and if we get some FG's after long Army drives, this number will be hard to reach.

3) Public movement: Memphis/Bowling Green OVER

Once again, the public is backing the OVER in a Bowling Green game. I believe this will be a running theme until something drastic occurs, the public is simply going to bet OVER in Bowling Green games regardless of the number. This game has been bet up 10 points from the opener (69) and I don't think it's done moving.

Just like last week, I don't expect any buyback on this number, but unlike last week, I am willing to fade this number at it's peak…..which I believe will be 81.5. Both of these teams are OVER squads, and the opener was a poor offering, but even after sharps bet this game into place the public has continued to push it along. Books likely couldn't have opened this game high enough to avoid taking OVER money so at what point is all the value gone?

4) Market manipulation: East Carolina/Navy UNDER

Market manipulators doing a solid job of holding this total in the high 50's (58) for now, but I expect that to change on game day and for this number to close above the opener of 60. I think this is one of the more obvious head-fakes that we've seen so far this season and I expect a fairly high scoring game here. These two teams have met three times in the last five years and those game resulted in game totals of 111, 73, and 84. Normally, you might discount some of those past results but several factors have me believing that they'll hold true here as well.

Navy has consistency in it's option attack and at the head coach position with Ken Niumatalolo and ECU, as I mentioned last week, has been adept at finding offense despite personnel losses. Both of these offenses are better than the defenses they'll face and bring styles that the other will struggle to contain. Navy's option is tough on a Pirates defense that isn't physical at the point of attack while ECU's passing offense is tough on a an undersized Navy secondary that lacks athleticism.

This formula has worked in past year's to produce high scoring contests and I see no reason to expect that to change. Throw in the fact that the Pirates defensive line is off a physical game vs an SEC opponent and now facing a Navy option attack that's off a bye and has been prepping for this game for a month and I like Navy's chances to rush for 280+ yards which, should push this game OVER the total.

Aloha!

[StarDust Bum]

Injury News & Notes - Week 3

September 17, 2015


-- Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire will miss the rest of the season with a broken ankle sustained in last week's win at Virginia. Therefore, redshirt freshman DeShone Kizer will become the starting signal caller. Kizer's Hail Mary pass for a TD late in the fourth quarter lifted the Irish past UVA last week, 34-27. RB Tarean Folston went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 1. Folston rushed for a team-best 889 yards and six TDs last year, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Also, starting TE Durham Smythe is done for the year due to a shoulder injury, and starting DT Jarron Jones was lost for all of 2015 back in August with a knee injury. Jones had 40 tackles, 1.5 sacks and seven QB hurries in 2014.

-- Toledo pulled the biggest stunner of Week 2 with its improbable 16-12 win at Arkansas as a 22.5-point underdog. What makes the Rockets' victory even more impressive is that it was done without the services of RB Kareem Hunt and DE Allen Covington. Hunt led the MAC with 1,631 rushing yards and 16 TDs while averaging 8.0 YPC in 2014. Covington was a second-team All-MAC selection last year. Both players were serving two-game suspensions and will return for Saturday's home game vs. Iowa St. at The Glass Bowl.

-- Tennessee has been dealing with personnel issues galore all season and things got worse on that front after this past week's gut-wrenching overtime loss to Oklahoma. Senior LB Curt Maggitt sustained a hip injury and will be out for an indefinite period of time. Maggitt had a team-high 11 sacks in 2014 when he garnered second-team All-SEC honors. Starting DT Danny O'Brien will remain suspended for Saturday's home game vs. Western Carolina. On the bright side, senior safety LaDarrell McNeil could return this week despite suffering a neck injury earlier this month that was expected to keep him out for an extended period of time. The Volunteers will go to Florida in Week 4 in hopes of snapping a 10-game losing streak against the Gators.

-- Florida starting safety Keanu Neal is expected to start Saturday at Kentucky after missing the first two games with a strained hamstring. Neal had 45 tackles, three interceptions and a fumble recovery returned for a TD last season. All-SEC CB Vernon Hargreaves missed the first game of his career in last week's 31-24 home win over East Carolina. Hargreaves injured his hamstring at last Thursday's practice. Hargreaves practiced at full speed Wednesday and will play at UK. Also, freshman OT Martez Ivey has practiced all week and will make his collegiate debut in Lexington. Ivey, a five-star recruit, had his knee scoped in late August and missed the first two games. Starting LB Alex Anzalone (shoulder) will not play against the 'Cats.

-- South Carolina QB Connor Mitch is out for the next 4-6 weeks due to a shoulder injury and an infection in his hip. Perry Orth will get the starting nod Saturday at Georgia. Other than a late interception on a potential game-winning drive, Orth was better than decent in South Carolina's 26-22 home loss to Kentucky. He led four scoring drives in the second half after the Gamecocks were down 24-7 at halftime. Unfortunately for Steve Spurrier's squad, three of those scoring drives ended with Elliot Fry making short field goals from 21, 27 and 29 yards out. Orth completed 13-of-20 passes for 179 yards and one TD. The 'Cocks, who were 16.5-point underdogs as of Thursday, have compiled an 8-2 spread record in 10 games as double-digit underdogs during Spurrier's 11-year tenure.

-- Arkansas WR Keon Hatcher is expected to miss the next 6-8 weeks with a foot injury. Hatcher was the Hogs' best wideout in 2014 when he made 43 catches for 558 yards and six TDs. In the first two games this year, Hatcher hauled in 13 receptions for 198 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Missouri RB Russell Hansbrough is 'out' Saturday vs. UConn. Hansbrough, who rushed for 1,084 yards and 10 TDs in 2014, was injured in the first quarter of his team's season-opening win over SE Missouri St. After being limited at practice all of last week, Hansbrough gave it a go in last week's 27-20 non-covering road win at Arkansas St. However, the senior RB only gained 15 yards on five carries. Making matters worse for Gary Pinkel at the RB position, three other backs are 'questionable,' including Ish Witter (concussion), Morgan Steward (hip) and Tyler Hunt (groin).

-- FAU QB Jaquez Johnson sprained his ankle in last week's 44-20 home loss to Miami. Johnson is a question mark for Saturday's game vs. Buffalo.

-- UCF QB Justin Holman is out for 2-4 weeks with a hand injury. Even worse, starting center Joey Grant is done for the season after suffering another shoulder injury. George O'Leary is going to give true freshman QB Bo Schneider the starting nod at QB vs. Furman.

-- Western Kentucky RB Leon Allen sustained a grotesque leg/knee injury in last Thursday's 41-38 home win over La. Tech. Allen, who rushed for 1,542 yards and 13 TDs in 2014, will miss the rest of the 2015 campaign.

-- Arkansas State QB Fredi Knighten is 'out' for Saturday's game vs. Missouri St. due to a groin injury. James Tabary will get the starting nod under center in his absence.

-- Air Force QB Nate Romine (knee) is 'out' Saturday at Michigan State. In fact, Romine is out indefinitely for the Falcons.

-- California star RB Daniel Lasco is 'questionable' for Saturday's game at Texas due to a knee injury.

-- Utah QB Travis Wilson has been downgraded to 'doubtful' for Saturday's game at Fresno St.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, September 18

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Game of the Day: Florida State at Boston College
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The Seminoles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven meetings with Boston College.

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (+9, 46.5)

Florida State sophomore running back Dalvin Cook looks to continue shredding defenses while taking pressure off quarterback Everett Golson as the No. 6 Seminoles visit Boston College on Friday in the ACC opener for both teams. Cook rushed for 422 yards and five touchdowns in his first two games - including 266 yards and three scores on 30 carries in Florida State's 34-14 victory over USF last week - and is well on his way to surpassing his freshman totals of 1,008 and eight.

Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher said he wasn't planning to have Cook run 30 times but told reporters "if he’s hot like that and he can finish, we’re going to continue to give it to him.” Florida State tries for its sixth straight victory over the Eagles but must figure out a way to start quicker on offense - a point of emphasis in Monday's practice - as it's scored 28 of its 93 points in the first half. Golson, who transferred after graduating from Notre Dame, is 33-of-51 for 465 yards without an interception, and his five touchdowns all have come in the second half. Boston College outscored FCS members Maine and Howard 100-3 and has allowed only 102 yards of total offense in its first two games as it tries to upset a ranked opponent at home in its third game for the second straight season after defeating No. 10 USC 37-31.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Books opened FSU as 8-point road faves, but that is currently FSU --9. The total is down to 46.5 after opening 51.

INJURY REPORT: Florida State - OL Cole Minshew (Out, ankle), DE Chris Casher (Out, knee), DE Lorenzo Featherston (Out indefinitely, knee). Boston College - LB Tim Joy (Questionable, knee).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing from the south at around six miles per our.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Boston College comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record, but the Eagles have played a pair of weak FCS teams. They beat Maine and Howard by a combined score of 100-3, but the Eagles are now taking a monumental step-up in class versus Florida State. Boston College is expected to have a down season, and their first two big wins will not be indicative of how their season will turn out going forward."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened FSU as 9-point faves in this matchup and it has bounced -9 and -8 through the week finally settling in our current number of FSU -8.5 with good two-way action with BC getting 48 percent of that action to cover the spread."

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): While the offense has scored on all 11 second-half possessions this season, the defense has held its first two opponents to fewer than 300 yards - an achievement accomplished only three times in 2014. Sophomore defensive back and All-America candidate Jalen Ramsey already has broken up four passes this season - most among ACC players - and allowed only one completion while being targeted 12 times. Sophomore linebacker Ro'Derrick Hoskins recorded seven tackles against USF, and his 10 this season give him a share of the team lead with sophomore linebacker Jacob Pugh.

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): The Eagles tried to simulate the Seminoles' speed by pitting their top units against each other at Monday's practice. "There can’t be a bunch of mistakes, a bunch of penalties. You can’t get shocked by the speed of the game,” coach Steve Addazio said at his weekly press conference. Boston College didn't get the feel of a big-time game in its 76-0 victory Howard last week in a contest shortened to 10-minute quarters in the second half by mutual agreement.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston College.
* Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Seminoles' last seven road games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of users are backing Florida State.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Long Sheet

Friday, September 18

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FLORIDA ST (2 - 0) at BOSTON COLLEGE (2 - 0) - 9/18/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW MEXICO (1 - 1) at ARIZONA ST (1 - 1) - 9/18/2015, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 1-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NCAAF

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Friday, September 18

8:00 PM
FLORIDA STATE vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida State is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
Boston College is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Florida State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games when playing at home against Florida State

9:00 PM
IDAHO STATE vs. BOISE STATE
Idaho State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Idaho State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boise State's last 11 games
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

10:00 PM
NEW MEXICO vs. ARIZONA STATE
New Mexico is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico's last 6 games
Arizona State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona State is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games


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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

Florida State @ Boston College

Game 105-106
September 18, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida State
100.520
Boston College
95.734
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 5
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 8
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston College
(+8); Under

New Mexico @ Arizona State

Game 107-108
September 18, 2015 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico
67.561
Arizona State
101.933
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona State
by 34 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona State
by 28
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona State
(-28); Under

Idaho State @ Boise State

Game 211-212
September 18, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Idaho State
65.045
Boise State
101.410
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 36 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
-29
67
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(-29); Under

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NCAAF

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Friday's games

Underdogs covered seven of last nine Florida State-Boston College tilts; Seminoles won last five meetings, with three of last four by 14+ points. FSU won four of last five visits here, last two 48-34/38-7- they're 6-3 in last nine games as road favorite. BC just beat couple of I-AA stiffs; hard to tell much from that; Eagles are 4-2 as home dog under Addazio, have run ball for 440 yards in last two games against Florida State. Soph QB is playing his first game against a bigtime opponent.

Arizona State struggled with I-AA Cal Poly last week after losing week before to Texas A&M; Sun Devils play USC next week, are 11-6 as a home favorite under Graham. ASU ran ball for 423 yards in 58-23 win at New Mexico LY (-23). Pac-12 home favorites are 7-2 vs spread out of conference; MW road underdogs are 3-2. Lobos are 1-6 as home dogs the last 2+ years; they gave up 600 yards in home loss to Tulsa last week.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida State - 8:00 PM ET Boston College +9 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Boston College - Under 47.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Idaho State - 9:00 PM ET Boise State -26.5 500 BLOW OUT

Boise State - Over 59.5 500 BLOW OUT


New Mexico - 10:00 PM ET New Mexico +25.5 500 *****

Arizona State - Under 64.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's SEC Showdowns

September 16, 2015


**Ole Miss at Alabama**

I pay zero attention to the Associated Press's Top 25 rankings so until I started doing some homework for this preview, I had no idea the AP was so off on its ranking of Ole Miss going into Week 3. The Rebels are No. 15 in the AP, while they are No. 6 in my latest Power Rankings. Hugh Freeze's bunch is tied for seventh in the ESPN Chalk Rankings, which are compiled by votes from myself, Phil Steele and Bruce Marshall.

With this in mind, bettors shouldn't be surprised to see Alabama as a rare single-digit home favorite. As of early Wednesday morning, most books had Alabama (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) listed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 51. There were plenty of 6.5's still on the board, however. The Westgate opened the number at six on Monday. Gamblers can take the Rebels to win outright for a +215 payout (risk $100 to win $215).

Alabama will be seeking revenge here after seeing its 10-game winning streak over Ole Miss snapped last season. Nick Saban's team hasn't lost in back-to-back seasons to an SEC rival since LSU turned the trick in 2010 and 2011.

Ole Miss (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) has obliterated its first two opponents by a combined score of 149-24. In its lid-lifter, Freeze's team crushed UT-Martin by a 76-3 count as a 39-point home favorite. Chad Kelly, the junior quarterback who began his career at Clemson, made his Rebels debut by throwing for 211 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Laquon Treadwell, a junior WR returning from a broken leg sustained in a narrow home loss to Auburn last year, recorded four receptions for 44 yards. Robert Nkemdiche, an All-SEC defensive end, was given playing time on offense and caught a 31-yard TD pass from back-up QB Ryan Buchanan early in the second quarter.

Jaylen Walton ran for a pair of TDs and 65 yards on just three carries, while Eugene Brazley rushed six times for 88 yards and one TD.

Ole Miss smashed Fresno St. 73-21 in Week 2 to easily take the cash as a 31.5-point home favorite. The 94 combined points soared 'over' the 56-point total. Kelly was spectacular against the Bulldogs, throwing for 346 yards and four TDs without an interception. Chad, who is the nephew of Jim Kelly, the Hall of Famer who played at Miami during his collegiate career before guiding the Buffalo Bills to four Super Bowls, also ran for a TD.

Nkemdiche found paydirt again vs. Fresno St. This time around, he got into the end zone on a one-yard rushing plunge. Treadwell caught five balls for 73 yards, while Quincy Adeboyejo had five receptions for 120 yards and three TDs.

Alabama opened the season by beating Wisconsin 35-17 as a 13-point favorite at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The 52 combined points jumped 'over' the 44.5-point total. The Crimson Tide rode the legs of Derrick Henry to victory against the Badgers, who had no answers for the junior RB.

Henry put Alabama on the board first when he burst through the line untouched for a 37-yard scoring scamper midway through the first quarter. He would add TD runs of 56 and two yards in the second half en route to an 147-yard effort on just 13 carries. The Alabama defense held UW to 268 yards of total offense, while its offense produced 502 yards.

Going into the game, Saban about who his starting QB would be. The nod went to FSU transfer Jacob Coker, a senior who couldn't break into the lineup last season due to the emergence of Blake Sims. Coker was sharp against the Badgers, completing 15-of-21 passes for 213 yards and one TD without an interception. Robert Foster had four receptions for 50 yards and one TD.

Saban's squad never got ahead of the number in last week's 37-10 win over Middle Tennessee as a 34.5-point home 'chalk.' The 47 combined points fell 'under' the 56.5-point tally.

After leading 23-3 at halftime, the Tide got a TD from Kenyan Drake on a 14-yard pass from Cooper Bateman. Then with 1:33 remaining in the third quarter, Henry busted loose for his third TD run of the day to put his team up 37-3. At this point, 'Bama backers had to be feeling good with more than a quarter of action remaining.

But the Blue Raiders held Alabama scoreless in the final stanza. They pulled to within 37-10 midway through the quarter on a 15-yard TD pass from Austin Grammer to Rod Ducksworth.

Henry finished with 96 rushing yards on 18 totes. Drake rushed six times for 40 yards and also had five receptions for 91 yards. For the season, Drake is second in the SEC and 12th in the country with 355 all-purpose yards. Henry is tied for tops in the nation in rushing TDs (six) and he's second in the SEC in rushing yards (243).

The competition has been weak, but Ole Miss is leading the country in scoring at a 74.5 points-per-game clip. The Rebels are third in total offense, averaging 634.5 yard per contest.

Since Freeze took over in 2012, Ole Miss has been a road underdog seven times, producing a 5-2 spread record. The Rebels have won two of those games outright, including at Arkansas in '12 and at Texas A&M last season.

This will be the third time Freeze has brought Ole Miss to Bryant-Denny Stadium. Due to the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC in 2012, the scheduling changes forced the Rebels to travel to Tuscaloosa in '12 and '13. The first meeting was closer than the 33-14 final score indicated. Ole Miss covered the spread as a 31-point underdog and limited the Tide to 305 yards of total offense. 'Bama took advantage of a kickoff return for a TD and a plus-two margin in the turnover department.

Two seasons ago, Alabama produced another misleading score in a 25-0 triumph as a 14-point home 'chalk.' The Tide was ahead just 9-0 at intermission and Ole Miss had chances galore to get on the scoreboard. But the Rebels passed on field goals and failed three times on fourth-down plays in Alabama territory during the second half.

Ole Miss would take advantage of its chances at last year's meeting in Oxford. The Rebels trailed 14-3 at halftime and 17-10 midway through the fourth quarter. With 5:29 remaining, Bo Wallace hit Vince Sanders for a 34-yard scoring strike to pull even.

Then on the ensuing kickoff, Alabama fumbled and Ole Miss recovered with great field position. A few plays later with 2:54 left, Wallace threw his third TD pass of the day to Jaylen Walton to put the Rebels in front. However, they missed the extra point and led by just a 23-17 score.

Alabama drove into Ole Miss territory, but its opportunity to prevail was thwarted when Senquez Golson intercepted Sims in the back of the end zone in the final minute.

Ole Miss has only one win in 27 all-time trips to Tuscaloosa, capturing that victory in 1988 by a 22-12 count. Alabama has won 23 consecutive SEC openers, including all eight on Saban's watch. Since Saban took over in 2007, the Tide has gone 27-27 ATS as a home favorite.

The 'under' has cashed in three straight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals and six of the last seven encounters.

Ole Miss won't have senior DT Issac Gross due to a neck injury that will keep him out for the rest of the season. Gross started six games in 2014, making 37 tackles to go with one sack and seven tackles for loss. The Rebels' biggest concern, however, is the status of All-American OT Laremy Tunsil.

The true junior has been held out of the first two games for "precautionary reasons" due to an NCAA investigation. Tunsil, who is projected by NFL Draft experts to be a top-five pick this spring, was involved in an incident this past summer in which he allegedly punched his step father. The step father alleged that he was simply trying to prevent Tunsil from hanging out with an agent.

Whatever the case, Tunsil isn't guilty of violating NCAA rules as long as he didn't accept any benefits from any agent. Ole Miss has wisely chosen to sit him out in the first two games, but it desperately needs Tunsil in the lineup Saturday night against Alabama's vaunted defensive front. Also, Ole Miss DB Tee Shepard, a four-star juco signee who originally signed with Notre Dame coming out of high school, will miss the first half after getting ejected for targeting in the third quarter of last week's win over Fresno St.

Alabama could be without starting MLB Rueben Foster, who is listed as 'questionable' with a shoulder injury. Also, reserve senior safety Jabriel Washington is out for the next 2-4 weeks with a knee injury.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Auburn at LSU**

As of early Wednesday, most spots had LSU (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) installed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 49.5 points. The Westgate opened the Bayou Bengals as 7.5-point home 'chalk,' only to adjust to seven late Tuesday afternoon and then to 6.5 merely 30 minutes later. Gamblers can back AU on the money line for a +215 return (risk $100 to win $215).

This is a huge revenge game for Les Miles's club, which took a 41-7 clubbing as a 7.5-point road underdog on The Plains last season. It was the first career start for then-true-freshman QB Brandon Harris, who was more successful in his second start last week in Starkville.

LSU escaped Davis Wade Stadium with a 21-19 victory last Saturday night, but it immensely disappointed its backers by allowing Mississippi St. to outscore it 13-0 in the fourth quarter. This gave the Bulldogs the backdoor cover as 3.5-point home underdogs.

The cover was the least of Miles's concerns in the waning moments. Dak Prescott drove his team into field-goal range in the final minute to give it a chance at the outright win. Miles, never known for shrewd clock-management moves at crunch time, committed what I've always considered a knucklehead move by coaches.

Look, I get it if a coach wants to ice a kicker. However, this trend that began about a decade ago of calling the timeout just a fraction of a second before the kick is beyond perplexing. What good does it do? If the kicker misses, just as Mississippi St.'s did last week, he gets another chance. If he makes it and it doesn't count, I guess it looks like a sharp move by the coach, but doesn't it give the kicker more confidence going into the boot that will really matter?

Anyway, in this instance, the Mississippi St. kicker missed the first try (when Miles got the timeout moments before the snap) and then missed again when it counted. The 40 combined points stayed 'under' the 52-point total.

LSU raced out to a 21-6 lead behind three TD runs from Leonard Fournette, the star sophomore RB who rushed 28 times for 159 yards. Prescott would counter with 14:45 remaining, pulling MSU into a one-possession game with a one-yard TD run. Then with 4:00 left, Prescott hit De'Runnya Wilson for a five-yard scoring strike.

On the two-point conversion attempt for the tie, Prescott threw a little behind his fullback but the pass still hit him in the hands. He was unable to come it with it, though. If the two-point try would've been converted, 'over' backers would've suddenly had life with overtime possibly looming.

Harris ran five times for 48 yards. Miles didn't ask him to do much through the air, as he connected on 9-of-14 throws for 71 yards. Harris has a pair of elite WRs in Malachi Dupre and Travin Duval, both of whom have outstanding speed and need more touches.

Auburn (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) opened the season with a 31-24 win over Louisville at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. Like LSU last week, AU gave up a backdoor cover to the Cardinals, who trailed 31-10 with less than seven minutes left. Nevertheless, U of L scored a pair of late TDs to take the cash as a 10-point underdog. The 55 combined points hit right on the total for a push.

I have to plead guilty to drinking the Kool-Aid of Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson throughout the offseason. Johnson has great size and a cannon for an arm, but his decision-making through two games has been nothing short of horrendous. He completed 11-of-21 passes for 137 yards with a 1/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio against Louisville.

Then last week, Johnson's woes nearly resulted in one of the biggest upsets in recent college football history. Jacksonville St., an FCS school located in Alabama near Talladega, was ahead 20-13 and had the ball with less than three minutes remaining.

However, much like it did in 2011 when Utah St. and Chuckie Keeton were threatening to pull an upset at Jordan-Hare Stadium, AU found a way to rally. The War Eagles got a stop and then Jacksonville St.'s punter shanked the ball and gave AU to the ball on the enemy 31.

On third and seven with 39 ticks left, Johnson found Melvin Ray for a 10-yard scoring strike to tie the game.

On the ensuing kick, AU inexplicably booted the ball out of bounds to give Jacksonville St. quality field position at its own 35. But for some reason (and I first-guessed this on twitter, so I'm not second-guessing in hindsight) coach John Grass elected to kneel on it and play for overtime.

Sophomore RB Peyton Barber scored on a four-yard TD run to start the extra session. Then when Jacksonville St. was stopped on fourth down, Auburn was able to escape the game upset bid.

Barber finished with 125 rushing yards on 23 totes. Johnson connected on 21-of-32 passes for 236 yards with two TD passes and a pair of interceptions. Ricardo Louis had 10 catches for 76 yards.

Perhaps most disconcerting for Malzahn has been the lack of production from WR Duke Williams, who was recently tabbed by NFL Draft guru Mel Kiper as the best WR in the upcoming draft. Williams had only two receptions for 22 yards just one week after getting completely blanked by U of L.

As we noted above, Harris struggled mightily in the loss at AU last season. He completed just 3-of-14 throws for 58 yards. Fournette rushed 10 times for only 42 yards. Auburn outgained LSU 566-280 in the yardage department and the game was basically over at intermission when AU led 31-7.

LSU has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals, including a 35-21 triumph at Tiger Stadium two seasons ago. However, Auburn took the cash as a 17-point underdog in that matchup. In fact, AU is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 encounters.

As a road 'dog on Malzahn's watch, Auburn owns a 3-2 spread record. LSU has struggled as a home favorite during Miles's 11-year tenure, limping to a 25-36-1 spread record. However, we should note that LSU went 4-1 ATS in five such spots last season.

CBS will have the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Action

September 18, 2015


AUBURN TIGERS (2-0) at LSU TIGERS (1-0)
Tiger Stadium - Baton Rouge, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: LSU -6.5, Total: 49.5

Two ranked teams try to stay unbeaten on Saturday when No. 18 Auburn visits No. 13 LSU in a battle of Tigers.

Although neither team has lost SU (3-0) this season, the schools have a combined 0-3 ATS record in those victories. Auburn survived a major scare last week, as the team needed a last-minute touchdown in regulation and an overtime score to prevail over FCS opponent Jacksonville State, a 39-point underdog. LSU also had a tight matchup last Saturday with then-No. 25 Mississippi State, eking out a 21-19 win thanks to a poorly managed final drive by the Bulldogs. While LSU has had the advantage in this series recently with a 6-2 SU mark (but 3-5 ATS) in the past eight meetings, one of those defeats was last October when Auburn jumped out to a 31-7 halftime lead and cruised to a 41-7 victory. But the stars of that game were Nick Marshall (326 total yards, 4 TD) and Cameron Artis-Payne (161 total yards) who are no longer in college.

Auburn benefits from the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in the first month of the season after closing out the previous winning campaign with 2+ straight losses, are 35-8 ATS (81%) since 1992. But bettors can also point to LSU's stellar 20-8 ATS mark under Les Miles after a game where the team committed zero turnovers. Auburn's defense could be missing some key components with DB Joshua Holsey (knee) doubtful and LB Justin Garrett (quad) questionable to take the field on Saturday. The good news is that both DL Carl Lawson (hip) and DB Tray Matthews (shoulder) were upgraded to probable. For LSU, both DT Mickey Johnson and OL Chidi Valentine-Okeke are out for the season while DE Isaiah Washington (arm) is listed as questionable for this matchup.

Auburn's offense needs to pick up some serious steam after gaining just 401 total yards in an overtime game against FCS Jacksonville State last week. These Tigers have turned the ball over three times in both contests, and when they last visited Baton Rouge in 2013 (a 35-21 loss), they also had three giveaways. Junior QB Jeremy Johnson has thrown five picks already, but he was much more accurate last week (66% completions) than in the season opener (52% completions). Because Johnson does not have the running skills like departed QB Nick Marshall, he'll have to make quicker decisions and safer throws to move the chains against an excellent LSU secondary that led the SEC in passing yards allowed last year (164 YPG). Johnson also needs to find another target besides star WR Ricardo Louis who has 130 of his team's 373 receiving yards.

Auburn's running game hasn't been great either with 355 yards on 4.5 YPC, but top RB Peyton Barber has proven capable of a large workload, rushing 47 times for 240 yards (5.1 YPC) and 1 TD this season. Defensively, the blue and orange Tigers have already allowed 55 first downs, which has led to the lengthy 33:07 time of possession. They are allowing 5.0 yards per play and need to be more opportunistic after a game where they forced only one turnover.

LSU didn't get to play an opening week tune-up when its scheduled game with McNeese State was postponed due to weather after just five minutes of action. But instead of looking sluggish in the new season opener versus Mississippi State, the Tigers came out strong and scored a pair of Leonard Fournette TD runs in the game's first 14 minutes to take a 14-0 lead. But the offense fizzled after that, scoring just seven points (a third Fournette TD run) in the final three quarters. Fournette finished with 159 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) against MSU, while the rest of the team gained only 178 yards.

QB Brandon Harris connected on 9-of-14 passes, but totaled just 71 yards (5.1 YPA) on those conservative throws. Harris was much worse in last year's blowout loss in Auburn, completing only 3-of-14 passes for 58 yards. Fournette wasn't too effective against the blue and orange Tigers with 42 yards on 10 carries. LSU's rushing defense was incredibly stingy in the win versus Mississippi State, allowing only 43 yards on 26 carries, but the pass defense was exposed. Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards (6.4 YPA) with 1 TD and 0 INT, and LSU failed to generate any takeaways. Saturday will be a great opportunity to make plays on the ball with Auburn.

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (1-1) at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (2-0)
Sanford Stadium - Athens, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Georgia -16.5, Total: 53.5

South Carolina tries to bounce back quickly from a disappointing loss when it visits No. 7 Georgia on Saturday night. The Gamecocks were not supposed to lose to 7-point underdog Kentucky in their home opener last week, but they allowed 399 total yards and fell 26-22. They also lost starting QB Connor Mitch (shoulder) indefinitely in that loss. The Bulldogs surrendered 400 total yards in their SEC opener last week in Vanderbilt, but still prevailed 31-14. These division foes have played a lot of close games recently, as the past six matchups have been decided by a total of 60 points (including 28 in one game), with the home team winning five of those meetings. Last year's matchup was a thrilling 38-35 victory by South Carolina, as the teams combined for 855 yards of offense. While Georgia holds the 7-4 SU advantage at home in this series since 1993, the club is just 5-6 ATS in these recent Athens meetings.

Bettors should consider head coach Steve Spurrier's 25-9 ATS record following a contest where his Gamecocks gained 6.75+ yards per play, but favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged at least 5.25 yards per carry last year are a hefty 43-16 ATS (73%) over the past 10 seasons. In addition to Mitch, South Carolina has several injury concerns with TE Connor Redmond (back), LB Sherrod Pittman (leg) and DBs Antoine Wilder (ankle), Shannon James (wrist) and Chris Lammons (ribs) all listed as questionable. The Bulldogs are in great shape for this matchup, as star RB Nick Chubb, who suffered an ankle injury last game, has been upgraded to probable.

South Carolina will start junior QB Perry Orth on Saturday after he did a fine job replacing injured Connor Mitch last week, finishing 13-of-20 for 179 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Orth will certainly lean heavily on superstar WR Pharoh Cooper who has 12 of his team's 29 catches and 145 of South Carolina's 362 receiving yards this year. Cooper also scored a touchdown in the win versus Georgia last season, but caught just three passes for 27 yards. His targets will have to increase greatly for the Gamecocks to hang in. South Carolina will also have to run the football as well as they did last year against Georgia when they gained 176 yards (4.2 YPC) and 2 TD. Top RB Brandon Wilds had 93 of those yards on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) and a touchdown, and Wilds is off to a flying start to the 2015 season with 157 yards on 30 carries (5.2 YPC).

The big problem for South Carolina's defense has been the inability to stop the run, as the team is allowing 207 YPG on the ground on 5.9 YPC. The pass defense hasn't been much better with 212 YPG allowed (7.1 YPA) on a whopping 67% completion rate. The Gamecocks cannot expect turnovers to occur, as the Bulldogs have zero giveaways this season.

Georgia's offense has been clicking on all cylinders so far, especially against conference foe Vanderbilt when it gained 423 total yards. This included 281 yards on 6.9 YPC on the ground thanks in large part to RB Nick Chubb. The sophomore ran for 189 yards (9.9 YPC) last Saturday to give him 309 rushing yards (8.8 YPC) for the season. He got just four carries against the Gamecocks last year, gaining 34 yards (8.5 YPC), but expect him to get about 25 touches this time around, especially with South Carolina's poor run defense so far.

With opponents having to key on Chubb, QB Greyson Lambert has not seen a lot of pressure. The 6-foot-5 junior has taken only one sack, but he'll need to be more accurate than his 52% completions last week. Most of his targets are going to WRs Sony Michel and Malcolm Mitchell who have combined for 197 of the team's 333 receiving yards. Defensively, Georgia has been stingy against the run in holding opponents to a meager 75 YPG on 2.3 YPC. But the pass defense has been shaky with surrendering 250 YPG on 6.3 YPA and 60% completions.

STANFORD CARDINAL (1-1) at USC TROJANS (2-0)
L.A. Coliseum - Los Angeles, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: USC –9.5, Total: 51

No. 7 USC gets its first real test of the season on Saturday night when Stanford pays a visit to Los Angeles.

The Cardinal did not start the 2015 season on a high note, losing 16-6 at Northwestern, but were able to bounce back strong last week with a 31-7 home drubbing of UCF. The Trojans have demolished two soft opponents to open 2015, crushing 27-point underdog Arkansas State 55-6 before taking down 44.5-point favorite Idaho by a 59-9 score.

This series between Pac-12 foes was once dominated by USC, but has been quite competitive recently with all five matchups this decade being decided by eight points or less. The Trojans have won two straight meetings by a field goal each time, prevailing 13-10 at Stanford last season when Andre Heidari connected from 53 yards out to break the tie with 2:30 left on the clock. Since 1999, these programs have met eight times in L.A. with the Cardinal holding the surprising 5-3 SU advantage (5-2-1 ATS).

Stanford benefits from the betting trend that road underdogs after allowing single-digit points in their previous game facing an opponent allowing three points or less in the first half of its previous game are a hefty 31-8 ATS (80%) in the past five seasons. However, USC is 18-4 ATS (82%) at home coming off 2+ straight ATS wins since 1992.

Each team has a pair of significant ailments, as the Cardinal lost DL Harrison Phillips to a season-ending knee injury and LB Noor Davis (leg) is questionable for Saturday. USC has two key players questionable for this matchup in LB Lamar Dawson (ribs) and OL Damien Mama (knee).

Stanford has not been able to rush the football to the level of its usually high standards, gaining just 108 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Sophomore Christian McCaffrey has carried the football 32 times for only 124 yards (3.9 YPC), which is a far cry from his 7.1 YPC average in 2014. Last week, McCaffrey gained only 2.9 YPC on his 20 totes. Senior RB Remound Wright has just 10 carries for 39 yards this year, but he might get a bigger workload considering his 60 yards on 11 rushes (5.5 YPC) in the loss to USC last year.

Despite the Cardinal producing only 10 points against the Trojans in 2014, QB Kevin Hogan had an excellent day with 285 passing yards on 9.5 YPA. He's been solid this season as well with 496 passing yards on 7.8 YPA with 3 TD and 1 INT. McCaffrey has been a great dump-off option with a team-high nine catches, while the speedy RB Bryce Love already has a 93-yard TD reception. Top WR Michael Rector has a gaudy 19.2 average on his five grabs.

If these big plays continue to happen, Stanford will be in great shape because of a defense that has looked stellar so far. The unit is allowing 127 rushing YPG on a mere 3.1 YPC and 128 passing YPG on 4.2 YPA and a 42.6% completion rate. However, the Trojans offense is absolutely electric with their elite signal caller at the helm.

USC QB Cody Kessler has led his team to 57.0 PPG and 623 total YPG in this young season. The 6-foot-1 senior has completed 79% of his passes for 650 yards (11.4 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT. Three receivers are averaging more than 20 yards per reception, including go-to sophomore WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who already has 14 catches for 281 yards and 3 TD. The next highest totals for USC are six catches (WR Steven Mitchell Jr.) and 66 yards (WR Isaac Whitney), which shows just how valuable Smith-Schuster has been. The only negative for the offense is that Kessler has been sacked five times, and he was frequently pressured at Stanford last season when he threw for only 135 yards on 6.1 YPA.

The Trojans' ground game has also been spectacular this year with 469 yards on 6.8 YPC with eight touchdowns. Both RBs Ronald Jones II (169 rush yds, 12.1 YPC, 2 TD) and Tre Madden (142 rush yds, 7.5 YPC, 3 TD) have been finding all kinds of holes to run through. USC's defense is allowing 356 total YPG, which is actually pretty low considering its gaudy 34:57 defensive time of possession.

Opponents have gained only 3.4 YPC and 5.3 YPA, and the unit has four takeaways this season, all against Arkansas State. Turnovers are always a big story in football, and in the past 14 meetings of this series with uneven takeaway numbers, the team that has won the turnover battle has a stellar 13-1 SU record.

OLE MISS REBELS (2-0) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (2-0)
Bryant-Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Alabama -6.5, Total: 49

No. 2 Alabama looks to avenge last year's loss to No. 15 Ole Miss when the SEC foes open up conference play on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.

The Rebels have been unstoppable on offense this season with 149 points and 1,269 total yards in two games versus UT-Martin (76-3 win) and Fresno State (73-21 win). The Crimson Tide have scored at least 35 points with at least 500 yards of offense in both of their victories over Wisconsin (35-17) and Middle Tennessee (37-10). Ole Miss was the only team to hand Alabama a regular-season loss last season by scoring 20 of the 23 second-half points to win 23-17. That marked the first Rebels win in this series since 2003, as the Tide had won the previous 10 matchups by an average of 15.5 PPG. Hugh Freeze has been a stellar bet in the first half of the season as the Ole Miss head coach, going 17-4 ATS, including a 10-2 ATS mark in August/September. But home teams coming off two straight wins by 17+ points facing an opponent coming off back-to-back games scoring 42+ points are 36-11 ATS (77%) since 1992.

The Rebels could be a little thin up front with OLs Robert Conyers (knee) and Laremy Tunsil (eligibility) both questionable to suit up on Saturday, and they could also be without DB C.J. Hampton (suspension). The Tide also have a couple of injury concerns with LB Reuben Foster (shoulder) questionable for this matchup and DB Jabriel Washington out 2-to-4 weeks with a knee injury. Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly has been even better than advertised, completing 73% of his passes for 557 yards on 13.9 YPA with six touchdowns and only one interception. But the junior will see much better competition than he ever has on Saturday and won't likely go the entire game without being sacked like he's done twice this season. Junior WR Quincy Adeboyejo already has four touchdown grabs and 153 receiving yards, while senior WR Cody Core has a team-high 176 yards on a 22.0 average. Top WR Laquon Treadwell looks fully recovered from the broken leg he suffered late last season, and hopes to produce even more than the 55 yards and one touchdown he had against Alabama last year. TE Evan Engram has only one reception this season, but will be a key to this game having gained a team-high 71 receiving yards on just three catches in last year's upset of the Tide.

The Rebels running game has also been outstanding in 2015 with 553 yards on 7.8 YPC with nine touchdowns. Four ball carriers (Jaylen Walton, Eugene Brazley, D.K. Buford and DeVante Kincade) are all averaging more than 10 yards per rush in 2015, but running on Alabama is never easy and Ole Miss has been limited to 80 rushing yards or less in four straight meetings in this series. Because the offense has been scoring so quickly, the Rebels defense has been on the field for an average of 35:25 this season. But the unit has held its opponents to 4.2 yards per play and 3.1 yards per carry, while forcing five turnovers, including four last Saturday versus Fresno State. Takeaways are always a huge factor in any football game, especially in this series where the school with the better turnover margin has won seven straight meetings.

Alabama senior QB Jake Coker has been excellent this season in completing 64% of his throws for 427 yards (9.1 YPA), but has only 2 TD and 1 INT. Five different receivers already have at least seven receptions led by sophomore WR ArDarius Stewart's 10 grabs. RB Kenyan Drake has a team-high 139 yards while sophomore WR Robert Foster has caught two of the team's three touchdowns through the air. But for Alabama to win this matchup, it will have to run the football much better than the pedestrian 168 yards and 3.8 YPC it had in the loss at Oxford last year. Top RB Derrick Henry already has 243 yards (7.8 YPC) and six touchdowns this season, but found very little running room against the outstanding front four of Ole Miss in 2014, as he managed just 37 yards on 17 carries (2.2 YPC).

Alabama's defense has not given up much this year, especially on the ground where it held an excellent Wisconsin rushing offense to 40 yards on 21 carries before limiting Middle Tennessee to 86 yards on 31 carries. But the secondary hasn't been all that special, allowing 208 passing YPG on a 60% completion rate. Turnovers have been a big factor though, as just like Rebels, Alabama has five takeaways already, including four last week. Another factor in this game could be special teams, as Tide kicker Adam Griffith is a miserable 0-for-4 on field goal attempts in the early season.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Report - Week 3

September 18, 2015

2015 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Baylor 2-0 0-0 0-1 2-0
Iowa State 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-1-1
Kansas 0-2 0-0 0-2 2-0
Kansas State 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Oklahoma 2-0 0-0 2-0 0-2
Oklahoma State 2-0 0-0 0-2 0-2
Texas 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Texas Christian 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Texas Tech 2-0 0-0 1-0-1 2-0
West Virginia 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2

Tulsa at Oklahoma (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Golden Hurricane face their biggest test of the season, by far, when they head to Memorial Stadium in Norman to battle the Sooners. Oklahoma has won each of the past eight meetings in this series, including 52-7 last season in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have the tools to keep up with the Sooners, posting at least 600 yards in total offense in each of their first two games to kick off the season. QB Dane Evans has a cadre of quality receivers in WRs Keevan Lucas, Keyarris Garrett and Joshua Atkinson. RBs Zack Langer and D'Angelo Brewer have also proven to be dependable, with Langer posting four rushing scores and Brewer averaging 6.3 yards per carry. The Sooners are coming off an impressive comeback and double-overtime win at Tennessee. Will they carry over the momentum or will they have a bit of a hangover after such an impressive road victory?

Louisiana Tech at Kansas State (NO TV, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Kansas State used former walk-on QB Joe Hubener for the start at Texas-San Antonio last week, and he replaced injured QB Jesse Ertz admirably. The Wildcats didn't skip a beat in the 30-3 win over the Roadrunners. Now, they'll be matched up against the high-octane offense of Skip Holtz's Bulldogs. So far La. Tech has posted 100 total points, splitting their two games straight-up. They have the kind of offense to give K-State fits, but the Wildcats showed last week they have plenty of depth to withstand a big loss. La. Tech has covered 17 of their past 21 road games against a team with a winning home record, and they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven on fieldturf. However, they're only 2-6 ATS in their past eight against Big 12 foes. The Wildcats have covered six of their past seven at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and they're 35-17-1 ATS in their past 53 overall.

Texas-San Antonio at Oklahoma State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)

UTSA meets their second straight Big 12 opponent, and hope this one goes better than last week. They were humbled 30-3 against K-State at home after putting on a good show at Arizona in their opener. Texas-San Antonio also needs to clean up the penalties if they hope to stay close in this one, as they're the fourth-most penalized team in FBS. OK State is 2-0 SU, but they have failed to cover in a road game at Central Michigan and a hope game against Central Arkansas. The Cowboys have just looked off on the offensive wide of the ball, averaging just 28.0 PPG. However, their defense has been stout and that will be the difference in this one. OK State punished UTSA 43-13 last Sept. 13, and a similar score can be expected here.

Texas Tech at Arkansas (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)

The Red Raiders head to Fayetteville to battle a Razorbacks team which is coming off a disappointing 16-12 setback to Toledo. Now, they'll face a high-octane offense from Lubbock looking to add to Arkansas' misery. The Razorbacks are favored by 11 1/2 currently, and many are flocking to TTU, who are 1-0-1 ATS this season while averaging 64.0 PPG. The Red Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games overall, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against SEC foes and 2-6 ATS in their past eight on the road. Despite the shocking loss last week, Arkansas is still 11-3 ATS in their past 14, and 10-2 ATS in the past 12 against a team with a winning record. They're also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their past six against Big 12 foes.

California at Texas (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)

It has been a tumultuous week in Austin. The athletic director has been fired, and Longhorn Nation is at a crossroads. Will the football team respond favorably and rally around each other, or will Cal come in and blow their doors off? It will be interesting to watch. The Bears are no slouch anymore after a couple of down seasons. They're actually favored by nearly a touchdown in this one. How many people had Cal being the last remaining unbeaten in the Pac-12 North through two games? Cal has covered four of their past five non-conference games, and they're 5-0 ATS in their past five on the road. Texas has covered four of the past five against Pac-12 teams, but they're 1-5 ATS in their past six at home and 0-4 ATS in their past four overall. The Longhorns have never lost in five meetings with the Golden Bears, but Texas football also has never been this low.

Southern Methodist at Texas Christian (FSN, 8:00 p.m.)

SMU gets another measuring stick game to see how well they're progressing. They hung nicely with Baylor in their opener before the Bears pulled away from Chad Morris' group. Now, they face another national power in their home. The Horned Frogs will be without DT Davion Pierson, while S Kenny Iloka was nicked up last week. DE James McFarland (toe surgery) and LB Sammy Douglas (knee surgery) are also down, so the Frogs will need to rely on depth to see them through. TCU is working on a couple of impressive streaks. They have at least one takeaway in 27 in a row, and QB Trevone Boykin has tossed at least one TD in 17 in a row. SMU has the offense to make things interesting into the third quarter, but look for separation in the second half. A spread of 38 might be a bit much if SMU's offense is clicking.

[B]Iowa State at Toledo (ESPNews, 8:00 p.m.)

Iowa State will be awfully ornery after getting pushed around by their rivals Iowa last week, 31-17. The Rockets of Toledo were flying high after a 16-12 upset at Arkansas, but have to erase that from memory going into their game in the Glass Bowl against another top-notch opponent. The Rockets, who are favored by seven in this one, have never defeated two Power 5 Conference teams in the same season, so if they're to cover they will be making history at the same time. I-State's defense has been on point, posting nine sacks and 20 tackles for loss. Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in the past four against MAC teams, although they're just 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall. Toledo is 1-3-1 ATS in their past five at home.

[StarDust Bum]

RECAPPING FRIDAY'S ACTION :

CFB: 1 - 1 -0 THURSDAY
CFB: 4 - 2 FRIDAY


COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

single play:.......................................12 - 13 - 1
double play:......................................18 - 13
triple play:........................................10 - 7
blow out:..........................................5 - 4
gow:.............................................. . ..0 - 0
gom:.............................................. . .0 - 0
goy............................................... . ..0 - 0

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 3

September 16, 2015


UNLV at Michigan (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Wolverines (-34)

No opener on this game as UNLV’s starting QB Decker is questionable with a hamstring injury. Decker was injured late in the 1st quarter of last week’s game vs UCLA and didn’t play the final 3 quarters. Once he went out, the Rebels went on to pass for only 4 yards over the final 3 quarters in their 37-3 loss to the Bruins as his back up Kurt Palandech is more of a runner than a drop back passer. Last week was a disappointment for UNLV as they looked for some progress after a solid week 1 performance at Northern Illinois where despite the 38-30 loss, the Rebs had more first downs and were only -52 yards for the game. If Decker can’t play UNLV will probably be running the ball a lot as Palandech is not a great passer and they face a Michigan team that allowed Oregon State to pass for only 79 yards last week on 20 attempts.

UNLV is coached by first year head man Tony Sanchez who had been a high school coach for the previous 16 years, including the last 6 at Nevada power Bishop Gorman H.S. in Las Vegas. He led Bishop Gorman to an 85-5 record and won the state title all 6 years he was there. Michigan rolled to a 35-7 win and dominated the stats as well rolling up 405 yards while limiting the Beavers to only 138. OSU averaged a terrible 2.6 yards per play in that game. Michigan QB Jake Rudock threw another interception last Saturday giving him 4 in his first 2 starts for Michigan. That after throwing just 5 all last season as the Iowa starter. The Wolverines are fairly healthy entering this game with only starting CB Lewis and FB Kerridge questionable. Michigan plays BYU next some coming off their home opener last week, this could be a tough spot to play at their emotional & physical peak. However, if UNLV QB Decker can’t play, we don’t see them doing much of anything offensively. Last time UNLV beat a Big Ten team was in 2003 vs Wisconsin. They are 0-6 SU since then.

Kent State at Minnesota (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Gophers (-23)

The Gophs come home after a big OT win at Colorado State last week. Minnesota looked a little out of sorts in that game which was to be expected after playing TCU to the wire at home in their first game of the season. Minny did dominate the stats with 9 more first downs and +100 total yards. However they ran 86 plays to pick up 413 yards which only equates to 4.8 yards per play. Minnesota started the game in an offensive rut not able to get a first down on their first 6 drives. After that they went up-tempo with their “new” no-huddle offense and things improved drastically. Head coach Jerry Kill said they may go with the no-huddle more often this week. The Gophers are banged up on the offensive line coming out of that game. Starting guard Jon Christenson will be out a month or so with a knee injury. Two other starting offensive linemen (Lauer & Campion) were held out of practice early in the week for injuries and their status is up in the air. Also starting WR KJ Maye who has 10 receptions for 127 yards was in a “green” non-contact jersey for much of this week in practice (chest injury). He hopes to be ready by Saturday.

Kent has already played one Big Ten team getting destroyed 52-3 at Illinois. The Illini only had 100 more total yards in that game but Kent was done in by 4 turnovers which led to Illinois TD drives of just 5, 6, and 7 yards! On the bright side for Kent, at least they scored. In their previous 3 games vs Big Ten teams the Flashes were outscored 124-0! Since 2005, Kent has faced 6 Big Ten teams and been outscored 268-6!

Troy at Wisconsin (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Badgers (-35)

Last week we had a big line move on the Miami OH – Wisconsin game as they Badgers opened -34 and were bet all the way down to -31. The move was dead wrong as the Badgers had the spread covered at halftime (37-0) and went on to win 58-0. Starting RB Corey Clement sat out with a pulled groin. He hasn’t been practicing this week as of this writing (Tuesday) and unless he’s 100% ready to roll, they won’t play him. Our word is it is very, very doubtful he will play this Saturday. Clement’s back up, Dare Ogunbowale (a former walk on), rolled up 112 yards on just 16 carries. The Badger offensive line is not anywhere near the level they are used to at Wisconsin. They actually had trouble getting a big push early on vs the Miami OH defensive line which is concerning. They improved as the game went on but with 3 new starters and a number of injuries up front, this offense will not be able to just pound good teams as they have become accustomed to doing.

QB Joel Stave has made huge improvements under new head coach and great offensive mind Paul Chryst. After just 2 games he’s thrown for 464 yards (on pace for 2,800) with 5 TD’s (he had just 9 last year) and a completion percentage of 65% (up from 53% last year). He’s already attempted 69 passes in 2 games and Wisconsin is no longer a “non-threat” to throw the ball. However, they may not have to throw the ball much this Saturday against a Troy team that has been gashed for 251 yards rushing (NC State) and 263 on the ground (Charleston Southern) the last 2 weeks. The Trojans were whipped 49-21 in week 1 by NC State & despite beating Charleston Southern 44-16 last week, the yardage was dead even at 374 apiece.

Illinois at North Carolina (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Tar Heels (-9)

We had a feeling the Illini might be affected in a positive way by the Tim Beckman firing and it looks like we might be correct. New head coach & offensive coordinator Bill Cubit was very well respected by the players and they seem to love playing for him. He’s much more “positive” than Beckman was and with the losing culture and “fragile psyche” of the Illini players (because of losing), it just wasn’t a good fit. Illinois has had two easy wins vs Kent and Western Illinois outscoring the two 96-3. We’ll find out how far the Illini have advanced this week against a decent North Carolina team. The Heels are 1-1 after losing to South Carolina the first week and then crushing NC A&T last Saturday. In their loss to the Gamecocks, UNC actually dominated the stat book racking up 440 yards on 7 yards per play (just 5.3 YPP for South Carolina). The problem was the Heels turned it over 3 times to 0 for SC. Not only that, two of their turnovers were interceptions in the endzone making the close loss (17-13) a tough one in a game they should have won.

Can the Illini turn the corner this year? Some say they may have done so last year with a 6-6 regular season record and a bowl appearance. However, the fact is, they lost all 7 games last year by double digits and 5 of their 6 wins required 4th quarter come from behind rallies. Illinois has been a horrendous road team winning only 3 of their last 21 SU away from home! They are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 away and as a road dog for a TD or more, they are just 3-10 ATS.

Northern Illinois at Ohio State (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Buckeyes (-33.5)

The Bucks were favored by 41 points last week at home vs Hawaii and fell just short winning 38-0. OSU was lethargic to start the game taking just a 14-0 lead into halftime. That was not a huge surprise as they played their massively hyped season opener at Virginia Tech on Monday and then had a short week to get ready for a “ho-hum” opponent. The Hawaii defense was very good holding the Buckeyes to 363 yards on 83 plays for just 4.3 YPP. However the Rainbows could only muster 2.7 YPP for the game and were held under 90 yards both rushing and passing.

NIU struggled in week 1 getting by UNLV 38-30 as a 23-point favorite. The Huskies only outgained the Rebels by 53 yards in that game. Last week against an overmatched Murray State team NIU rolled 57-26 on 636 total yards. The look to be very solid again offensively and that’s the norm for this team. They have now averaged more than 31 PPG and more than 440 YPG in each of the last 5 seasons. The Huskies have become the top program in the MAC making it to 5 straight conference title games, winning 3 of them. This NIU team has won 37 of their last 40 games (excluding bowls) and they won’t be intimidated in this venue. They’ve actually won their last 3 contests vs Big Ten teams at Northwestern last year & at Purdue and at Iowa the year before. The Huskies have not been an underdog of this magnitude since the 1998 season. OSU is obviously has vastly superior talent, however they better come to play on Saturday if they expect to cover this huge number. After a lack luster effort last week, we’re guessing Urban Meyer has this team ready to play on Saturday.

Northwestern at Duke (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Blue Devils (-3)

Don’t sleep on this NW defense which might just be one of the top few stop units in the Big Ten. They were solid on that side of the ball last year but simply ran out of gas down the stretch. They held 5 of their first 6 opponents last year to 24 points or less including Wisconsin & Minnesota. They held 4 of their Big Ten opponents to 14 points or fewer last year. The Cats bring back 8 starters on that side of the ball including their entire D Line. They have yet to give up a TD this year. They opened the year by upsetting Stanford 16-6 limiting the Cardinal to just 240 yards for the game on only 3.8 YPP. Last week they shutout Eastern Illinois 41-0 and gave up only 138 total yards. EIU only moved the ball inside the NW 40 yard line twice and never got inside the 30.

Duke has yet to be tested rolling over 2 weak opponents. They topped Tulane 37-7 to open the season and followed that up with a 55-0 win over NC Central. NCCU is an FCS team and Tulane has lost their two games 37-7 and 65-10. Because of their cupcake schedule so far, NW coach Pat Fitzgerald said the tape hasn’t helped them much as Duke has been fairly vanilla on offense. Expect a number of new wrinkles and formations this weekend as Devil HC David Cutcliffe is a fantastic offensive mind. One might expect these two top academic schools to simply keep quiet and play the game however that hasn’t been the case. Northwestern DL Ifeadi Odenigbo spoke early this week of pitching a shutout when they travel to Duke this Saturday. A few Devil players have taken offense to that and taken their thought to the twitter verse. It should make for an interesting game on Sunday.

Virginia Tech at Purdue (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Hokies (-5.5)

The Hokies take on their 2nd Big Ten opponent this season when they travel to Purdue on Saturday. After losing in the much hyped home opener vs #1 Ohio State, Va Tech had a “breather” last week hosting Furman. They took care of business rolling to a 42-3 win that included 299 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC. Not much can be taken from the game as Furman is a weak FCS opponent that has only 1 win in their last 12 games. Head coach Frank Beamer may have created a bit of a QB controversy. His starter, Michael Brewer, was injured in the Ohio State game and will be out for at least a month and probably longer. His replacement Brenden Motley did little to nothing against Ohio State completing just 44% of his passes for 36 yards in one half of work. Motley got the start vs Furman but Beamer decided to pull the redshirt off highly touted true frosh Dwayne Lawson on just the 3rd play of the game. Motley went onto have a solid game but Lawson did as well so expect to see both again on Saturday.

We felt Purdue would be much improved this year and it looks like we were on target. The Boilers had Marshall beat on the road in week 1, but 2 pick 6’s by QB Appleby (4 interceptions thrown in the game) cost them the game. Last week they dominated Indiana State in a game they could have been flat in after their tough loss the Sunday before. They return QB Appleby and all 5 starting offensive lineman as their offense is much improved putting up 34.5 PPG so far after averaging just 23 PPG a year ago. VT has been a very solid road team winning 8 of their last 11 games away from home. Purdue on the other hand has only won 5 of their last 20 home games. The Boilers are improved and VT will be playing with unproven QB’s in their first ever road action. An upset?

Nebraska at Miami (FL) (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Hurricanes (-3.5)

These two met last year in Lincoln and the Huskers won 41-31 as an 8-point favorite. The total yardage was very close (Nebraska was +21 total yards) with the Huskers controlling the ground game (343 to 76) while the Canes took to the air (359 to 113). Nebraska led by 17 late and Miami came up with a TD with just 18 seconds remaining in the game to cut the final margin to 10. The Canes come in at 2-0 beating Bethune Cookman & Florida Atlantic. There most recent game last Friday night at FAU was much closer than the final score of 44-20 would indicate. The game was tied at 20 apiece in the 3rd quarter. FAU lost their starting QB Jaquez Johnson early in the first quarter and his replacement, Jason Driskel threw 2 ints in his first collegiate action. The Owls had 5 turnovers in all and the Canes didn’t turn the ball over once.

The Huskers bounced back after their heartbreaking hail-mary loss to BYU and whipped South Alabama last week. The Nebraska defense has been shaky vs the pass this year allowing 379 & 313 yards through the air the first 2 games. Big plays have been a big problem as the Huskers have already allowed pass plays of 55, 53, 42, 38, 37, 33, 24, and 21 yards this year. Last year when they faced Miami, then freshman QB Brad Kaaya threw for 359 yards and completed 13 passes of 15 yards or more. Kaaya is a year older and much better than he was at the point when they played Nebraska last year so the Husker defensive coaches have been stressing and stopping big plays has been brought up often at practice this week. The Canes are off to a good start, however this is a team that has won more than 7 games only once since 2009. Since 2010, they have just a 36-28 overall record. Miami will be without starting LB Darrion Owens who was lost for the season last week. However, starting WR’s Berrios will return and Coley might be back after both missed last week.

Western Kentucky at Indiana (ESPN News, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Hoosiers -2.5

While IU’s defense was better last week than in their first week debacle, they weren’t great. FIU put up over 400 yards in the 36-22 Indiana win. However, the game was closer than the final score and one key play really turned the tide. Down 29-22 driving for the tying score with under 4:00 remaining the game, FIU QB Alex McGough drove the Panthers down to the IU 2-yard line on the doorstep of a tie game. Instead he threw an interception that was returned 96-yards for a TD to give IU the clinching TD. Back to the defense…In two games the Hoosier defense has given up almost 1,100 yards. They did get a number of key players back on the defensive side of the ball last week after being suspended in week one, most important being DL Darius Latham.

Western Kentucky is obviously a team that can shred a poor defense. The Hilltoppers averaged 44 PPG on 535 YPG a year ago. They struggled offensively at Vandy in their first game but bounced back in a big way last week against a very solid La Tech defense scoring 41 points and rolling up 589 yards. The problem is, their defense allowed 38 points and 580 yards to the Bulldogs. So while WKY might have their way with Indiana’s defense, the same can be said about the Hoosiers offense. Indiana scored 29 points offensively last week but it should have been much more. On their first 6 drives of the game, the Hoosiers crossed the 50 yard line 5 times and pushed inside the FIU 30 yard line on 4 of those, yet only came away with 13 points. Head coach Kevin Wilson acknowledged he made some very poor offensive calls and didn’t take advantage of field position. This one could be a shootout.

Rutgers at Penn State (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Nittany Lions (-8.5)

It was definitely another tough week for the Rutgers football program. Not only did they lose a home game to Washington State, their star WR Leonte Carroo, all Big Ten last year, was arrested after the game for assaulting a woman he was involved with. He is now suspended. That is the SEVENTH Rutgers player that has been arrested this month alone! All of the off the field noise has to have a negative effect on not only the players, but the coaches focus on preparation. It has quickly put head coach Kyle Flood on the hot seat which has to be a distraction and now Flood has been suspended three games by the school. Back to the Washington State loss which wasn’t nearly as close at the 37-34 final score indicated. WSU had a big edge yardage wise (+157) and Rutgers needed 2 return TD’s (one punt & one kickoff) just to stay close. They also had a punt return for a TD the week before in their blowout win over Norfolk State.

Penn State’s offense has been under a microscope since the end of last season when they averaged only 20 PPG overall and topped 20 points only ONCE the entire Big Ten season. The offensive line was supposed to be drastically improved, after a horrendous 2014. Well after 2 games it doesn’t look like that has happened. The PSU offense is averaging just 18 PPG – actually down from last year – and just 255 YPG on offense. QB Hackenberg was sacked 10 times in their opener vs Temple after 44 times last season. He has thrown for only 231 yards in two games combined and this from a QB that is supposed to be a potential high NFL draft choice. The offense still isn’t good. Last year PSU went into Rutgers and escaped with a hard fought 13-10 win and the Nits were +4 in turnovers in that game. We’re probably looking at another “grinder” on Saturday.

Pittsburgh at Iowa (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Hawkeyes -5

The Hawkeyes went into Pitt last year as a 6.5 point dog and pulled off the mild upset winning 24-20. The Panthers held a semi comfortable 17-7 lead at half and had a +130 yardage edge at the break. The final stats also had Pitt with a +7 edge in first downs and +120 in total yardage. The Panthers also had 20 more offensive snaps and still lost by 4. Iowa has impressed so far this year. They definitely look like an improved football team. After rolling over a very good FCS team in week 1 (Illinois St) and Hawks got by state rival Iowa State in Ames by a final score of 31-17. It was close most of the way with Iowa scoring two TD’s in the final 3:00 minutes to pull away. However, Iowa dominated in the trenches with a 260-63 rushing edge and a 6.8 to 5.0 YPP advantage.

Lots has changed on the Pitt side since then including a new coaching staff led by head man Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi is very familiar with the Iowa offense from his days defending it as the DC at Michigan State. In Narduzzi most recent meeting with Iowa in 2013, his MSU defense held the Hawks to 14 points on just 264 total yards (only 23 yards rushing). The more concerning issue for Narduzzi and Pitt is at the key position on the field, QB. Last year’s starter Chad Voytik has been under center to start the first two games but was replaced last week in the 2nd quarter by Tennessee transfer Nathan Peterman who was 12 of 17 for 148 yards. Voytik did not re-enter the game after being pulled in a tie game in the 2nd quarter and Narduzzi has not announced a starter as of this writing. Pitt won both games but they weren’t easy. They struggled to a 7-point home win over Youngstown St to open the season and then led only 10-7 last week at Akron before extending to a 24-7 win. Pitt has a bye after this game while Iowa hosts North Texas.

Air Force at Michigan State (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Spartans (-27)

This could be a dangerous game for Sparty. It’s going to be awfully tough for this team to get up emotionally for this game as a huge favorite. They had been waiting for a full year for another crack at Oregon and the overwhelming thought was, if they can get by the Ducks, this MSU team would run the table until their match up at Ohio State on November 21st. They got the win and it was a tight one that was undecided with only a few seconds remaining. Now they have only a week to “come down” from that win and prepare for an Air Force offense they almost never see.

The Falcons, who had a 10-3 record last year, rarely pass the ball and lead the nation in rushing attempts per game at 69. They did lose starting QB Romine last week to a knee injury and he is gone for the season. His replacement, Karson Roberts, came in last week with Air Force leading San Jose State by just 7 and led them to 2 TD’s in the 37-16 win. Roberts also started 3 games in 2013 so he has some experience. The knock on him is he doesn’t pass the ball as well as Romine but when you attempt only 11 passes per game as a team that weakness isn’t quite as pronounced. It is rare for a disciplined, smart Air Force team to be getting this type of number. Since 1980, the Falcons have been an underdog of 21 points or more just 11 times. They are 8-3 ATS in those games winning 2 of them outright. Michigan State will obviously have a big edge on both sides of the ball if they show up and play. The question is will they and if not can they cover this big number?

[StarDust Bum]

CFB ATS

CFB > (187) SMU@ (188) TCU | 2015-09-19 20:00:00 - 2015-09-19 20:00:00
Play ON TCU against the spread in home games
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8 units)

CFB > (185) SAN JOSE ST@ (186) OREGON ST | 2015-09-19 20:00:00 - 2015-09-19 20:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN JOSE ST against the spread as an underdog
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.8 units)

CFB > (133) C MICHIGAN@ (134) SYRACUSE | 2015-09-19 12:30:00 - 2015-09-19 12:30:00
Play ON SYRACUSE against the spread against MAC opponents
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses for the since 1992 (+11.8 units)

CFB > (147) E CAROLINA@ (148) NAVY | 2015-09-19 15:30:00 - 2015-09-19 15:30:00
Play AGAINST E CAROLINA against the spread against conference opponents
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)

CFB > (135) NORTHWESTERN@ (136) DUKE | 2015-09-19 12:30:00 - 2015-09-19 12:30:00
Play ON DUKE against the spread in all games
The record is 22 Wins and 7 Losses for the last three seasons (+14.3 units)

CFB > (189) UTEP@ (190) NEW MEXICO ST | 2015-09-19 20:00:00 - 2015-09-19 20:00:00
Play AGAINST NEW MEXICO ST against the spread after playing a conference game
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

CFB > (177) CONNECTICUT@ (178) MISSOURI | 2015-09-19 12:00:00 - 2015-09-19 12:00:00
Play AGAINST CONNECTICUT against the spread when playing on a Saturday
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 12:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic -3 500 *****
Florida Atlantic -

Tulsa - 12:00 PM ET Tulsa +30.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Oklahoma -

Connecticut - 12:00 PM ET Missouri -21 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Missouri -

Nevada - 12:00 PM ET Texas A&M -32.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Texas A&M -

South Florida - 12:00 PM ET South Florida +6.5 500
Maryland -

UNLV - 12:00 PM ET Michigan -36 500 BLOW OUT
Michigan -

Air Force - 12:00 PM ET Air Force +24.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Michigan State -

Kent State - 12:00 PM ET Minnesota -24 500 BLOW OUT
Minnesota -

Wake Forest - 12:00 PM ET Army +6 500
Army -

Illinois - 12:00 PM ET North Carolina -7 500
North Carolina -

Central Michigan - 12:30 PM ET Syracuse -8 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Syracuse -

Northwestern - 12:30 PM ET Duke -5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Duke

[StarDust Bum]

MID-DAY GAMES:

Georgia State - 2:00 PM ET *Georgia State +43 500 ****
Oregon -

Rice - 2:30 PM ET North Texas +7 500
North Texas -

Ball State - 3:00 PM ET Ball State -5 500 *****
Eastern Michigan
-
Memphis - 3:00 PM ET Bowling Green +3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Bowling Green -

Temple - 3:00 PM ET Massachusetts +13 500 *****
Massachusetts -

Louisiana Tech - 3:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech +10 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Kansas State -

Troy - 3:30 PM ET Wisconsin -29.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Wisconsin -

Texas-San Antonio - 3:30 PM ET Texas-San Antonio +26.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oklahoma State -

Auburn - 3:30 PM ET Auburn +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Louisiana State -

Virginia Tech - 3:30 PM ET Virginia Tech -5.5 500
Purdue -

Northern Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Northern Illinois +34.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Ohio State -

East Carolina - 3:30 PM ET Navy -6 500 BLOW OUT
Navy -

Georgia Tech - 3:30 PM ET Notre Dame +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Notre Dame -

Nebraska - 3:30 PM ET Miami -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Miami -

Cincinnati - 3:30 PM ET Cincinnati -20.5 500
Miami (Ohio) -

Western Kentucky - 4:00 PM ET Western Kentucky +1 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Indiana -

Utah State - 5:00 PM ET Utah State +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Washington -

South Carolina - 6:00 PM ET South Carolina +17 500
Georgia -