2015 NFL Conference Previews

[Udog]

AFC South NFL betting preview: Can anyone come close to toppling the Colts?

Houston Texans (2014 – 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 30/1
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Texans: Give Bill O’Brien credit. He took a 2-14 team and made it into an almost-playoff 9-7 club. And he still had the guts to make major changes, dumping Andre Johnson and bringing in 13 free agents to go with seven draft choices. For the first time in a while expectations are high in Houston, and they think they have enough ammo to take down Indianapolis. Should be an interesting D-line with Watt, Wilfork and Clowney.

Why not to bet the Texans: QB Brian Hoyer has an experience edge on Ryan Mallett in the battle between New England castoffs, but there’s no evidence that either can get the Texans into double-digit win territory. Depth also appears to be a problem.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Indianapolis Colts (2014 – 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 7/2
Over/under total: 10.5

Why to bet the Colts: Indy should get halfway to 10 wins in division games alone, which means they have a big leg up in the division. (Over the last two years, Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are a combined 27-69.) Don’t expect too many in-division issues. Plus, Andrew Luck kills it in the dome during the regular season.

Why not to be the Colts: Indy made only token efforts in the draft to plug a run defense that is not good enough to even be called terrible. New England has destroyed the Colts on the ground four times in the last three years. Plus, if they meet again the Patriots have a score to settle regarding DeflateGate.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


Jacksonville Jaguars (2014 – 3-13 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 90/1
Over/under total: 5.5

Why to bet the Jaguars: If Blake Bortles proved anything last year, it’s that the kid is a QB who can make plays. Now the Jags have added two more weapons – free agent tight end Julius Thomas and Florida State rookie slot receiver Rashad Greene -- to jump-start at offense that averaged only 15.6 points a game last season.

Why not to bet the Jaguars: Numbers don’t lie, and the Jags have won only seven times in the last two seasons. They would love to smell .500 by Christmas, but there doesn’t appear to be enough overall talent – even in the weak AFC South.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Tennessee Titans (2014 – 2-14 SU, 3-12-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 90/1
Over/under total: Over 5.5

Why to bet the Titans: OK, now the Titans get to see what they have in rookie QB Marcus Mariota. Early indications out of camp are that the kid can play. The defense figures to be better, too, now that legend Dick Lebeau is on board as a coach.

Why not to bet the Titans: Tennessee earned the right to draft high (No. 2 overall) with its season-ending 10-game losing streak last season. Besides weaving Mariota into the system, they have holes everywhere to plug.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

[Udog]

AFC East NFL betting preview: Patriots won't be deflated in 2015 season

Even with the Deflategate circus surrounding the team for months, the AFC East is likely the Patriots' to lose again this year, but they could get a serious push from a couple of division rivals.

AAA Sports breaks down the best ways to wager on the AFC East and gives a season win total pick for each of its members heading into the new NFL campaign:


Buffalo Bills (2014: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 14/1
Over/under total: 8.5

Why to bet the Bills: As new coach Rex Ryan says, the Bills are going to jam the ball down teams’ throats this season. At least try to. Assuming LeSean McCoy is into the game, he’ll pair with Fred Jackson in a solid backfield. The defense, among the best in the NFL last season, is strong again.

Why not to bet the Bills: Buffalo has been Playoff-AWOL for the last decade and a half, and the Bills still don’t have a quality QB. What will happen when defenses bring seven defenders in the box to stop the running game?

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Miami Dolphins (2014: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 14/1
Over/under total: 9

Why to bet the Dolphins: This could be the year that Ryan Tannehill separates himself from the Andy Daltons of the NFL and vaults into the upper echelon. Tannehill has some young wideouts to throw to, and when the offense goes three-and-out, the defense led by newcomer Ndamukong Suh gets to show its stuff.

Why not to bet the Dolphins: Besides Suh, there is a raft of young new bodies on both sides of the ball, and it may take a while to sort itself out. Schedule is top-heavy with mediocre opponents early, tough ones later.

Season win total pick: Under 9


New England Patriots (2014: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 7/2
Over/under total: 10

Why to bet the Patriots: After Deflategate, do you think Bill Belichick is going to even think about taking his foot off the accelerator? Pats have never been a great cover team, but after SpyGate hit the fan, NE covered its first eight games the following season.

Why not to bet the Patriots: How long will Tom Brady sit? No one knows, and we might not know until just before Game 1. Until then there might not even be lines available.

Season win total pick: Over 10


New York Jets (2014: 4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 35-1
Over/under total: 7

Why to bet the Jets: The NYJ have some new names – Brandon Marshall, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Stevan Ridley – who have had some success, and if they get with the program, Todd Bowles could improve on last year’s 4-win season. Rex Ryan took the Jets to two AFC title games, but was just 26-38 in his last four years as boss man.

Why not to bet the Jets: It’s tough going into a season with the weakest QB in the division, and that’s Issue No. 1 in East Rutherford. Geno Smith looked like he has the job, but he’ll be out until early October after undergoing an involuntary nose job. Now, re-tread Ryan Fitzpatrick will have another chance to underperform.

Season win total pick: Over 7

[Udog]

AFC West NFL betting preview: Broncos favored in competitive division

Does Peyton Manning have enough left to lead the Broncos to another AFC West title? Are the young Raiders ready to make the leap to division contender are they not quite there yet?

AAA Sports takes a look at the competitive AFC West and makes his projections on each team's season win total.

Denver Broncos (2014: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 11-2
Season win total: 10

Why to bet the Broncos: Everyone in the NFL knows that this is Peyton Manning’s last roundup, and the good news is that Manning enters the season a lot healthier than he ended the last one. The better news is that with the Broncos moving to a more run-oriented offense, Manning might be able to channel late-career John Elway and may not have to carry the horses on his back for 16+ games.

Why not to bet the Broncos: New coach Gary Kubiak is under intense pressure to get this team to the Super Bowl, and the fact is that there are fewer top-quality players around this time. Among the missing are TE Julius Thomas, who fled in a contract spat; and O-lineman Ryan Clady, who will miss 2015 as he rehabs from ACL surgery.

Season win total pick: Under 10


Kansas City Chiefs (2014: 9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 15-1
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Chiefs: All the elements appear in place. Alex Smith has become one of the league’s most accurate passers. Justin Houston (22 sacks last year) anchors a better-than-average defense. Wideout Jeremy Maclin strengthens the passing game. And Jamaal Charles is back.

Why not to bet the Chiefs: They just can’t seem to get over the Peyton Manning (KC is 1-13 against him) roadblock. And a brutal schedule includes a trip to Green Bay and only seven home games due to a London obligation. Hard to see KC making up a three-game deficit and making a legit run at the division title.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Oakland Raiders (2014: 3-13 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 55-1
Over/under total: 5.5

Why to bet the Raiders: New season, new coach, new hope in Oakland, where Jack Del Rio is the latest to take a crack at cleaning up the squalor that this franchise has become. QB Derek Carr will have a pair of solid wideouts in vet Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper, and Latavius Murray should be among the better RBs in the AFC.

Why not to be the Raiders: The offensive line has to do a better job in the running game; that failure led to the worst offense in the league last season. Oakland has not had a winning season since it went to the Super Bowl in 2002, and it’s always sketchy betting on a streak like that to end.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5


San Diego Chargers (2014: 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 25-1
Over/under total: 8

Why to bet the Chargers: The O-line was a major concern last season, but appears to have been patched nicely and should give 10-year veteran Philip Rivers the protection he needs to put up solid numbers. All the key pieces return, along with a few new toys for Rivers.

Why not to be the Chargers: San Diego has missed the playoffs four of the last five years, and didn’t appear to make much of an effort last season. Also, there will be uncertainty all year as the front office ponders a 2016 move to Los Angeles.

Season win total pick: Under 8

[Udog]

NFC East NFL betting preview: Tight race for the crown in competitive division

The Cowboys, Giants and Eagles are all trying to fit through the door to the playoffs at the same time - like the Three Stooges. Who will be left standing in this closely contested division?

Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to wager on the NFC East and gives a season win total pick for each of its members heading into the new NFL campaign.

Dallas Cowboys (2014: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS)

Odds to win division: +120
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Cowboys: Dallas was an undervalued football team for most of 2014. The Cowboys were a very good team, but many failed to realize that. Dallas got a raw deal in their playoff loss in Green Bay, so motivation will not be an issue coming into this season. Dallas led the league in time of possession because of their ability to run the football. DeMarco Murray is gone, but running back is an easy position to replace with a strong offensive line, so all is not lost. Dallas has talent, so another playoff appearance should be well in reach for the Cowboys in 2015.

Why not bet the Cowboys: The Cowboys have two clear weaknesses coming into the 2015 season. Head coach Jason Garrett is extremely poor, and he’s one of the worst game managers in the entire league. His decisions often fail to give Dallas their best chances at winning, so his poor skills often prevent the team from reaching their full potential. Dallas also has a bad defense, especially in the secondary where they are extremely vulnerable against good passing offenses. If Dallas fails to have a strong running game to control the clock on offense, then their poor defense may be too much to overcome in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5


New York Giants (2014: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +415
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Giants: There are a lot of positive signs that point to a monster season by the Giants in 2015. New York’s offense was simply awful early on last year as they were learning a completely new system. But the Giants were explosive down the stretch, averaging 29.2 points per game over their last six games. QB Eli Manning threw for 4,410 yards with a 30/14 TD/INT ratio. If the team stays healthy, the Giants will have a potent offense this season.

Why not bet the Giants: The Giants slogged through a miserable 6-10 SU season last year and they were just 3-9 going into the last quarter of the season. And if winning three of their last four games was just a mirage, New York will be in store for another mediocre season. Head coach Tom Coughlin’s shtick is old and worn out, and it wouldn’t be a shocking revelation if the team completely tunes him out as the season goes on.

Season win total pick: Over 8


Philadelphia Eagles (2014: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: +150
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Eagles: Philadelphia is a team on the rise. Running back DeMarco Murray was a big coup, especially for a run-orientated offense. As of now, it’s unclear who will be the Eagles’ quarterback, but insiders believe a healthy Sam Bradford will get the nod. Head coach Chip Kelly runs unique offensive schemes and he’s typically one step ahead of opposing defenses. The Eagles’ defense may be one of the most improved this season, especially since they shored-up their secondary. Philadelphia should be a good team once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Eagles: There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Eagles coming into the 2015 season. The Eagles suffered many high-profile personnel losses, including Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin. The quarterback situation is unsettled, and the Eagles really need improvement from their defense. If the new pieces don’t gel quickly, it could be a season in which the Eagles hover right around the .500 mark.

Season win total pick: Over 9


Washington Redskins (2014: 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1500
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Redskins: The writing was on the wall coming into last season for the Washington Redskins. That prediction held true as Washington went just 4-12 SU with an ugly -137 point differential. Expectations are extremely low for the Redskins once again in 2015, so the team may be able to sneak up on their opponents this season.

Why not bet the Redskins: Things don’t look any better for 2015. Head coach Jay Gruden is in his second year, and he still has a lot to fix. QB Robert Griffin III is fragile, and he’ll be playing behind a terrible offensive line once again. The Redskins’ defense needs a lot of work, especially their secondary which ranked No. 31 in yards per pass attempt allowed. Washington may improve their record by a game or two, but they need a major overhaul to get back into the playoffs, especially in such a tough and competitive division.

Season win total pick: Under 6

[Udog]

AFC North NFL betting preview: Three-way fight offers value

If his receivers stay healthy, we may finally get a definitive judgment on Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton.

The more things change, the more they stay the same – at least in the AFC North. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh will again be in a three-way race for the postseason come winter while Cleveland, despite those fancy new uniforms, will bring up the rear in the division.

Art Aronson breaks down the best ways to bet the AFC North this upcoming NFL season:

Baltimore Ravens (2014: 10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: 5/4
Over/under total: 9

Why bet the Ravens: You always get your money’s worth with the Ravens, who are just two years removed from a Super Bowl title and have made the playoffs six of the last seven years. They completely rebuilt their defense post-Ray Lewis and were No. 8 in the league last year.

Why not to bet the Ravens: Baltimore had trouble in the secondary last season, and as training camp gets under way it’s uncertain whether that issue has been fixed. And QB Joe Flacco is the typical box of chocolates: you never know what you’re going to get.

Season win total pick: Under 9


Cincinnati Bengals (2014: 10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: 12/5
Over/under total: 8.5

Why bet the Bengals: If receivers stay healthy, we may finally get a definitive judgment on QB Andy Dalton. Dalton has two quality RBs (Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard), playoff experience and coaching staff stability. All the elements appear in place for another solid season.

Why not to bet the Bengals: Four straight first-round playoffs losses speaks volumes about a team that seems to turtle when the real bullets starting flying. They seem isolated, much better than non-playoff teams in the AFC but nowhere good enough to make a deep playoff run. Badly in need of a jolt of adrenaline.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Cleveland Browns (2014: 7-9 SU, 9-5-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: 20/1
Over/under total: 6.5

Why bet the Browns: Cleveland was actually pretty good for much of last season, sitting at 6-3 before losing every game played after Thanksgiving. The Browns have a strong offense line and a solid defense, and those two things help bring consistency as they search for offensive playmakers.

Why not to bet the Browns: Well, there’s that nagging quarterback thing, They’re stuck with Johnny Manziel, and Brian Hoyer has departed. That leaves journeyman Josh McCown. Ouch. Adding to the problems is the fact that the team needs to rid itself of the stink of that 2014 seven-game season-ending losing streak.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5


Pittsburgh Steelers (2014: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: 2/1
Over/under total: 8.5

Why bet the Steelers: Mike Tomlin says the Steelers offense could be the best in the league. He has a point. Pittsburgh managed to keep the entire offense together after averaging more than 411 yards in total offense last season. Ben Roethlisberger is still a tough-as-nails QB who appears to have several good seasons left.

Why not bet the Steelers: Uncharacteristically, Pittsburgh has a weak defense – and that explains why books have such a low win total for them. The offense won’t be on the field much unless Pittsburgh improves a run defense that gave up 4.4 yards a carry to opposing ball-carriers last year.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

[Udog]

NFC North NFL betting preview: Can Vikings break through in 2015?

Adrian Peterson's return gives the Vikings a huge boost but is it enough for Minnesota to break through in the NFC North?

The cheese stands alone in the NFC North with the Green Bay Packers a runaway favorite to win the division. Behind them is an interesting race, with Chicago and Detroit trying to stay relevant in the NFC and Minnesota jumping into the mix with Adrian Peterson back to work.

Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to wager on the NFC North this upcoming NFL season.

Chicago Bears (2014: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1550
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Bears: After going 5-11 in 2014, the Bears cleaned house and appear to be starting over. The Bears fired GM Phil Emery and head coach Marc Trestman, and traded WR Brandon Marshall to the Jets. Former Denver head coach John Fox takes over in the Windy City, so a new regime may be just what the Bears need. Fox is a conservative coach, and he’s made his career on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears have some decent parts to work with on defense, and it’s easy to assume that Chicago will try and play ball-control offense in order to keep competitive.

Why not bet the Bears: Unfortunately for Bears’ fans, quarterback Jay Cutler remains. Cutler is a maddening quarterback because he has the physical skills to succeed, but his mental game is atrocious. Chicago’s defense was putrid as they gave up 27.6 points per game last season. Even though the Bears will play a smarter brand of football under Fox, it may not translate into a better win/loss and pointspread record in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 7


Detroit Lions (2014: 11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +615
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Lions: The Detroit Lions recorded their second-best record in franchise history by going 11-5 in 2014. The Lions played well in a playoff loss in Dallas, so they should continue to improve in Jim Caldwell’s second season. Caldwell’s specialty is quarterback development, so Matthew Stafford should play much better this year. Detroit went 7-1 SU at home last season, and some of their toughest out of division games this season will be played on their home turf.

Why not bet the Lions: Detroit’s offense was highly inconsistent throughout the 2014 season, and its lack of a running game made its play calling too predictable. If improvement doesn’t happen, the Lions won’t be as fortunate as last season. Detroit’s defense was ranked No. 1 for the majority of last year, but they lost Ndamukong Suh to the Dolphins. His absence has to hurt Detroit’s defense to some degree.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Green Bay Packers (2014: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: -300
Season win total: 11

Why bet the Packers: Green Bay’s offense is explosive and one of the best in the league. As long as QB Aaron Rodgers is healthy and under center, the Packers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Green Bay has dominated the NFC North, going an incredible 20-4-1 SU against division opponents over the last four seasons. The Packers’ out of division road games are all easily winnable and, since they are 12-3-1 SU at home during the past two years, 2015 will be another terrific season for the Green Bay Packers.

Why not bet the Packers: Will the Packers suffer a hangover from their blown win in Seattle in the NFC Championship game or will they be able to rebound off that devastating defeat? If it’s the former, the Packers will struggle all season. Their defense needs more consistency, and the Packers need to play better on the road with all five of their losses came away from home last season. Jordy Nelson’s season-ending knee injury was a tough pill to swallow and it doesn’t look like other top WR Randall Cobb is 100 percent to start the season.

Season win total pick: Over 11


Minnesota Vikings (2014: 7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS)

Odds to win division: +700
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Vikings: Head coach Mike Zimmer is in his second year, and he showed his defensive chops by turning the Vikings’ defense around by 8.6 points per game from the year before. Minnesota has strong coaching minds on both sides of the ball (offensive coordinator is Norv Turner), so the players have the foundation to have another solid season. The future is bright for Minnesota, but they may be a year or two away from making the playoffs.

Why not bet the Vikings: The 2014 season has to be considered a success for the Vikings even though they only won seven games. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater played well in his rookie season, so he’ll have to avoid a sophomore slump. The Vikings played 15 games without their best player, Adrian Peterson, so winning seven games was even more impressive. However, with Peterson back, the Vikings’ identity reverts to a run-based offense which makes them more predictable. It will be interesting to see how the team chemistry changes with the return of Peterson.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

[Udog]

NFC East NFL betting preview: Eagles hoping Murray's defection gets them over the hump

Head coach Chip Kelly runs unique offensive schemes, and he’s typically one step ahead of opposing defenses.

Dallas Cowboys (2014: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS)

Odds to win division: 7/1
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Cowboys: Dallas was an undervalued football team for most of 2014. The Cowboys were a very good team, but many failed to realize that. Dallas got a raw deal in their playoff loss in Green Bay, so motivation will not be an issue coming into this season. Dallas led the league in time of possession because of their ability to run the football. DeMarco Murray is gone, but running back is an easy position to replace with a strong offensive line, so all is not lost. Dallas has talent, so another playoff appearance should be well in reach for the Cowboys in 2015.

Why not bet the Cowboys: The Cowboys have two clear weaknesses coming into the 2015 season. Head coach Jason Garrett is extremely poor, and he’s one of the worst game managers in the entire league. His decisions often fail to give Dallas their best chances at winning, so his poor skills often prevent the team from reaching their full potential. Dallas also has a bad defense, especially in the secondary where they are extremely vulnerable against good passing offenses. If Dallas fails to have a strong running game to control the clock on offense, then their poor defense may be too much to overcome in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5


New York Giants (2014: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: 20/1
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Giants: There are a lot of positive signs that point to a monster season by the Giants in 2015. New York’s offense was simply awful early on last year as they were learning a completely new system. But the Giants were explosive down the stretch, averaging 29.2 points per game over their last six games. QB Eli Manning threw for 4,410 yards with a 30/14 TD/INT ratio. If the team stays healthy, the Giants will have a potent offense this season.

Why not bet the Giants: The New York Giants slogged through a miserable 6-10 SU season last year; they were just 3-9 going into the last 25% of the season. And if winning three of their last four games was just a mirage, New York will be in store for another mediocre season. Head coach Tom Coughlin’s shtick is old and worn out, and it wouldn’t be a shocking revelation if the team completely tunes him out as the season goes on.

Season win total pick: Over 8


Philadelphia Eagles (2014: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: 7/1
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Eagles: Philadelphia is a team on the rise. Running back DeMarco Murray was a big coup, especially for a run-orientated offense. As of now, it’s unclear who will be the Eagles’ quarterback, but insiders believe a healthy Sam Bradford will get the nod. Head coach Chip Kelly runs unique offensive schemes, and he’s typically one step ahead of opposing defenses. The Eagles’ defense may be one of the most improved this season, especially since they shored-up their secondary. Philadelphia should be a good team once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Eagles: There a lot of question marks surrounding the Philadelphia Eagles coming into the 2015 season. The Eagles suffered many high-profile personnel losses, including Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin. The quarterback situation is unsettled, and the Eagles really need improvement from their defense. If the new pieces don’t gel quickly, it could be a season in which the Eagles hover right around the .500 mark.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Washington Redskins (2014: 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS)

Odds to win division: 50/1
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Redskins: The writing was on the wall coming into last season for the Washington Redskins. That prediction held true as Washington went just 4-12 SU with an ugly -137 point differential. Expectations are extremely low for the Redskins once again in 2015, so the team may be able to sneak up on their opponents this season.

Why not bet the Redskins: Things don’t look any better for 2015. Head coach Jay Gruden is in his second year, and he still has a lot to fix. QB Robert Griffin III is fragile, and he’ll be playing behind a terrible offensive line once again. The Redskins’ defense needs a lot of work, especially their secondary which ranked #31 in yards per pass attempt allowed. Washington may improve their record by a game or two, but they need a major overhaul to get back into the playoffs, especially in such a tough and competitive division.

Season win total pick: Under 6