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All of these games and high profile teams, yet I am on Samford. Here's a few reasons...
I believe this team being an unknown is keeping this line a little low. Looking at their points scored per game, Samford would appear to be bad since they average only 66 ppg. However, a closer look will show that they shoot very well. In fact, they are 4th in the NCAA in field goal % and 7th in 3-point FG %. In their own conference, they are ranked number 1 in FG%, 3-pt FG%, rebounding defense and 3 pointers made per game.
Samford plays Princeton style basketball. They are a pesky bunch to go up against, especially at home. As I mentioned, they only average 66 ppg, but at home they are averaging 81 ppg, while giving up only 54. Until they lost their last game to Morehead State, they had a 9 game home winning streak.
Eastern Kentucky has shown very little on the road this year. In fact, they are a miserable 0-7 SU and are allowing opponents to shoot over 50% and give up 80 ppg. They haven't scored much either, averaging 67 ppg. To have any shot today against a team that can shoot and play defense, an huge improvement is needed.
Against common opponents, Samford is 4-0 while Eastern Kentucky is 1-3.
I have to throw a crazy situational trend in here to support my thinking...24-3 ATS the last 5 years with an average point differential of over 13 ppg...
Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (<=32%) after 15+ games, after a game making 13 or more 3 point shots.
Sanford has lost 2 in a row twice this year, but not 3...and I don't see it happening here.
Good luck if you decide to play.
I believe this team being an unknown is keeping this line a little low. Looking at their points scored per game, Samford would appear to be bad since they average only 66 ppg. However, a closer look will show that they shoot very well. In fact, they are 4th in the NCAA in field goal % and 7th in 3-point FG %. In their own conference, they are ranked number 1 in FG%, 3-pt FG%, rebounding defense and 3 pointers made per game.
Samford plays Princeton style basketball. They are a pesky bunch to go up against, especially at home. As I mentioned, they only average 66 ppg, but at home they are averaging 81 ppg, while giving up only 54. Until they lost their last game to Morehead State, they had a 9 game home winning streak.
Eastern Kentucky has shown very little on the road this year. In fact, they are a miserable 0-7 SU and are allowing opponents to shoot over 50% and give up 80 ppg. They haven't scored much either, averaging 67 ppg. To have any shot today against a team that can shoot and play defense, an huge improvement is needed.
Against common opponents, Samford is 4-0 while Eastern Kentucky is 1-3.
I have to throw a crazy situational trend in here to support my thinking...24-3 ATS the last 5 years with an average point differential of over 13 ppg...
Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (<=32%) after 15+ games, after a game making 13 or more 3 point shots.
Sanford has lost 2 in a row twice this year, but not 3...and I don't see it happening here.
Good luck if you decide to play.
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