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**Udog** · 07-09-2015, 09:52 PM

Big 12 college football betting preview: TCU will score, but will it be enough?

The Baylor Bears, returning a bevy of starters this season, are the favorites to win the Big 12. But will they be able stop Trevone Boykin and the TCU Horned Frogs?

Expert AAA Sports breaks down the best ways to wager on the Big 12 and gives his season win total picks for each of its members heading into the new college football campaign.

Baylor Bears (2014: 11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-2
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Bears: Why not? Baylor brings back just about everyone except quarterback Bryce Petty, and the Bears will go into just about every game this season knowing that they will be able to bully their opponents on both sides of the line.

Why not bet the Bears: A trio of cupcakes early in the season (SMU, Lamar and Rice) could create a false sense of security for when the real games start in October. At least whoever is calling signals will be able to get his feet wet without too much pressure.

Season win total pick: Over 10

Texas Christian Horned Frogs (2014: 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Horned Frogs: TCU will put up points. A lot of points. Trevone Boykin is back at QB after finishing fourth in the country in total offense last season. Top wideout Josh Doctson also returns after setting single-season school record for TD catches and yards. Yikes.

Why not bet the Horned Frogs: The other side of the ball is a problem, especially at linebacker. TCU uses only two LBs, and both of them will be newbies after the departures of standouts Paul Dawson and Chris Hackett. May take a while before TCU can stop decent offenses.

Season win total pick: Push

Oklahoma Sooners (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Sooners: After a step-back and somewhat disappointing 2014 season, OSU revamped its offense. Lincoln Riley moves in from East Carolina as OC and will give the Sooners a wide-open offense. And if that doesn’t work, they can just hand off to Samaje Perine, one of the best in the Big 12.

Why not bet the Sooners: Questions are everywhere in a program that was once of the top 5 in the country. Might be a good idea to stay off this team, which must play at Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Kansas State and Baylor. Ouch.

Season win total pick: Under 9

Oklahoma State Cowboys (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Cowboys: Things are looking up in Stillwater, where the Cowboys surprised even themselves by finishing over .500 and defeating Washington in the Cactus Bowl in what was expected to be a serious rebuild. QB Mason Rudolph, who figured to red-shirt last season but was pressed into service, is a good one. Defense isn’t bad, either.

Why not bet the Cowboys: Careful here. OSU gave up 47 more points than it scored last season, and even that number was inflated by a meaningless 30-point victory over Texas-San Antonio.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Texas Longhorns (2014: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 7-1
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Longhorns: Should be value to be had here because Texas is just not perceived as a Top-25 program anymore. But Charlie Strong has some talent, and as road wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State proved last season, the guy can coach.

Why not bet the Longhorns: Texas averaged only 21.7 points a game last season, and while the spread offense this year will be new, there is no guarantee it will be better. The Longhorns were beaten by Baylor, Kansas State and TCU by an average score of 33-16 in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

Kansas State Wildcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 10-1
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Wildcats: Does Bill Snyder ever have a bad season? Somehow Snyder managed to cajole nine wins out of last year’s squad, and no one should bet too heavily against him finding a way to keep the Cats in the mix this season.

Why not bet the Wildcats: Kansas State may be the only big-time program in the country with a starting QB who has never played the positon at any level. Joe Hubener looks like the No. 1 QB at this point, and the walk-on played several other positions in high school, but not quarterback.

Season win total pick: Over 7

West Virginia Mountaineers (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 15-1
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Mountaineers: WVU will score – it always does. QB Skyler Howard will get nothing but better and running back Rushel Shell could be one of the top backs in the country if he stays healthy – he had 788 on the ground last season despite fighting a sprained ankle for much of the season. Defense has to plug a few holes, but should be among the best in the conference.

Why not bet the Mountaineers: Hopes always seem high at WVU, but the math is irrefutable – the Mountaineers are 18-20 in their last three seasons and are firmly ensconced in the middle of the conference. They’re probably two recruiting classes from serious contention.

Season win total pick: Over 8

Texas Tech Red Raiders (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 20-1
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Red Raiders: Last season could have been a bit of an aberration. Tech never really got things going, lost some games early due to turnovers, and the whole somehow seemed smaller than the sum of its parts. The Raiders were better than their record showed, and they have a solid offensive line to start with this year.

Why not bet the Red Raiders: There’s instability at the QB position, where neither Patrick Mahome nr Davis Webb has been able to separate from the other. Then there’s the defense, which allowed more points than any team in the conference last season (495) and seems capable of allowing 50-plus on any given Saturday.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Iowa State Cyclones (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Cyclones: Iowa State is your basic Dollar Store team. You might be able to find some value if you look hard enough. The Cyclones should be able to move the ball pretty well, led by veteran QB Sam Richardson and a group of pretty good wideouts.

Why not bet the Cyclones: Any program that has won a total of five games in the last two seasons has problems. Another dumpster fire will probably cost Paul Rhoads his job. Rhoads will have his hands trying to repair damage in the offensive line and a defense that ranked 125th in the country last year.

Season win total pick: Over 3

Kansas Jayhawks (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Jayhawks: Because either you have a lot of money that you don’t need to pay bills, you graduated from Kansas or you regret not being alive to watch the carnage in Rome’s Colosseum.

Why not bet the Jayhawks: All you need to know about Kansas is that only five starters return from a team that wasn’t very good last season and will probably be worse this time around. Coach David Beaty should probably spend a lot of his time on the recruiting trail, because he has one of the most difficult rebuilds in the country on his hands.

Season win total pick: Under 3

**Udog** · 07-09-2015, 09:53 PM

AAC college football betting preview: Cincy pegged as fave with big season on the horizon

The American Athletic Conference goes through another shakeup in its third season as Navy joins the mix to increase the membership to 12 teams. Cincinnati is the fave to win the conference, but with Memphis, Temple and UCF in the fold, there is value in the AAC.

Steve Merril looks at all 12 AAC teams and give season win total picks for each heading into the 2015 campaign.

Central Florida Knights (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Knights: Central Florida has dominated conference opponents by going an impressive 15-1 over the last two seasons. The Knights have won back-to-back conference championships, and they’ll be in contention once again this season. Quarterback Justin Holman returns for his junior season after throwing for 2,952 yards with 23 touchdowns in 2014.

Why not bet the Knights: Despite Central Florida’s recent league domination, they have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. They also lost their top four wide receivers and all four of their starting defensive backs. Overall, Central Florida has the fewest returning starters (9) in the American Athletic Conference, so inexperience could be their undoing in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Cincinnati Bearcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +260
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Bearcats: Cincinnati is poised for a big season in 2015. The Bearcats’ offense is loaded, and they return eight starters from last year’s team that averaged 34 points per game. Quarterback Gunner Kiel returns after throwing for 3,254 yards and a school record 31 touchdown passes in 2014.

Why not bet the Bearcats: Defense. Cincinnati’s stop unit regressed last season, allowing 27.2 points and 439 yards per game. They only gave up 21 points and 316 yards per game the season before. They return just five defensive starters this season, so they will need to improve dramatically if they want to win double digit games in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Connecticut Huskies (2014: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Huskies: Bob Diaco will begin his second year at Connecticut, so the Huskies should improve some. They return 14 starters, including eight starters on a defense that was better than the season before. Connecticut’s defense could keep them in some games this season, so they could be live when getting a lot of points as an underdog.

Why not bet the Huskies: The offense is a major concern. Connecticut only averaged 15.5 points on 276 yards of total offense per game last season. The quarterback position doesn’t have a lot of experience, so another poor offensive season is quite likely. The road schedule is brutal as well, so there’s not a lot to like about Connecticut heading into the 2015 season.

Season win total pick: Under 3

East Carolina Pirates (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Pirates: East Carolina has a successful program as they’ve made a bowl game in eight of the last nine seasons. The Pirates have won eight games or more in each of the last three years, and they’ll be in contention to extend that streak to four.

Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates return just eleven starters overall, and they have a new offensive coordinator in Dave Nichol. East Carolina also has to replace a pair of offensive standouts, QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy, so Nichol’s job won’t be easy. Out of conference games at Florida and at BYU don’t help either, so the Pirates have some question marks coming into this season.

Season win total pick: Over 7

South Florida Bulls (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Bulls: South Florida is in their third season under head coach Willie Taggart, so there’s a chance they could improve upon their 4 wins from a season ago. The Bulls should see defensive improvement, especially since they are switching to a 4-2-5 scheme that fits their personnel well.

Why not bet the Bulls: The team returns just 4 offensive starters, and under Taggart, the Bulls have only averaged 13.8 and 17.2 points per game. Overall, South Florida’s program has been in decline over the last four seasons, and there’s nothing to suggest a reversal of form will be seen in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Temple Owls (2014: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Owls: Temple returns 19 starters from a team that went 6-6 last season. The Owls have an excellent defense, and they should be the best in the AAC. Temple returns ten starters on a stop unit that only gave up 17.5 points per game last season. With 15 seniors on the two deep, Temple is set to have their best season in quite awhile.

Why not bet the Owls: Temple’s offense needs to get better. The Owls only averaged 308 yards per game last season, and they scored 20 points or less in their last seven games. In conference play, Temple was -69.5 yards per game, and that’s a direct reflection of their poor offense. If the scoring unit fails to improve, Temple will be a .500 team once again.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Houston Cougars (2014: 8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +825
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Cougars: Houston has some things pointing in their direction for a solid 2015 season. The Cougars return quarterback Greg Ward who completed 67.3 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,010 yards and 12 touchdowns in only eight games. Houston’s defense is good as well; the Cougars have given up just 21.8 and 20.6 points per game over their last two seasons.

Why not bet the Cougars: Houston has a whole new coaching staff this season. Head coach Tom Herman comes over from Ohio State where he was the offensive coordinator. Major Applewhite is the new offensive coordinator while Craig Naivar and Todd Orlando will co-coordinate the defense. With new schemes on both sides of the ball, Houston may not play-up to their talent level in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Memphis Tigers (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Tigers: Justin Fuente and Darrell Dickey’s offensive system exploded last season as Memphis averaged 36.2 points per game. The Tigers should roll along again in 2015 as eight offensive starters return, including QB Paxton Lynch who threw for 3,031 yards with 22 touchdown passes.

Why not bet the Tigers: Memphis came out of nowhere to win 10 games last season, and teams that fit that profile usually regress the following season. The Tigers’ defense was good last year (19.5 ppg), but that unit only returns three starters while losing coordinator Barry Odom to Missouri. Memphis’ season will hinge on their defense, and if they falter, the Tigers will be a .500 team at best.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Navy Midshipmen (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1300
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Midshipmen: Navy runs the triple option offense, and it’s difficult to stop, especially for teams that haven’t seen it before and only have a week to prepare. The Midshipmen are affiliated with a league for the first time in 124 years, and they’ll have a major advantage over their opponents this season as none of them will have a bye prior to playing Navy. Senior QB Keenan Reynolds returns, so the Midshipmen will be a formidable team this season.

Why not bet the Midshipmen: Navy’s defense has been vulnerable to high-scoring, athletic offenses and they’ll face their fair share in the AAC this season. Their late schedule isn’t ideal either as they have to play at Memphis and at Houston in a 20-day span. If the Midshipmen can’t play consistent defense, their promising season will get derailed.

Season win total pick: Over 7

SMU Mustangs (2014: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Mustangs: SMU returns 16 starters this season after winning just one game in 2014. There’s nowhere to go but up for the Mustangs, so they should be a much better team this season. New head coach Chad Morris is a proven offensive guru as his Clemson’s offenses averaged 37.3 points per game over the last three years.

Why not bet the Mustangs: The Mustangs were embarrassingly bad on offense last year. They averaged just 11.1 points per game, and their average loss came by 30 points per game overall, and 22 points per game in conference play. New systems take time to develop, and unless SMU’s offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish with a losing record once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 2

Tulane Green Wave (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3700
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Green Wave: Tulane is in their fourth season under Curtis Johnson, and they return 16 starters, so there are some positives. The Green Wave will win with their defense, a unit that allowed a respectable 28.4 points and 388 yards per game in 2014. Those numbers aren’t bad considering they only went 3-9 SU last season. If the defense improves some, Tulane can be a sticky underdog this year.

Why not bet the Green Wave: Tulane has serious issues on offense. The unit only averaged 16 points per game last season, and they’ve averaged 347 yards per game or less in all three years under Johnson. The Green Wave scored a total of 16 points in their last three games of the 2014 season. If the offense doesn’t get significantly better, Tulane will be in the basement once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Golden Hurricane: Tulsa returns 16 starters in the first year of new head coach Philip Montgomery. He was Baylor’s offensive coordinator for the last three years, so he will implement a similar offense at Tulsa. The offense did average 24.7 points per game in 2014, so they could be even better under Montgomery’s schemes.

Why not bet the Golden Hurricane: The Golden Hurricane come in off a 2-win season, and while there’s nowhere to go but up, the team still lacks much talent. After winning 29 games from 2010-2012, Tulsa is just 5-19 over the last two seasons. It will take time for Montgomery to get the right players to fit his schemes, so 2015 figures to be a rebuilding season for Tulsa.

Season win total pick: Under 5

**BettorsChat** · 07-09-2015, 10:15 PM

Thanks Rance as these are very informative!

**Udog** · 07-10-2015, 09:28 AM

You're welcome, Monte! I'll add them as our source gets them ready. We should have all the majors well before the season starts.

**Udog** · 07-20-2015, 01:18 PM

ACC college football betting preview: If Deshaun Watson stays healthy, look out for Clemson

The ACC could undergo a changing of the guard in 2015 after two seasons dominated by Florida State. The Seminoles will still be among the conference’s top programs, but there is value to be had behind FSU with contenders like Georgia Tech, Clemson and Virginia Tech.

Will Rogers breaks down the best ways to wager on the ACC this coming college football season:

Florida State Seminoles (2014: 13-1 SU, 3-11 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +230
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Seminoles: Replacing Jamies Winston isn't going to be easy, but that's exactly what they said when E.J. Manuel left. With seven starters returning on defense, they should have plenty of depth on the defensive side of the ball.

Why not bet the Seminoles: In addition to the departure of their starting quarterback, they also lose four offensive linemen, their top wide receiver (Rashad Greene), tight end (Nick O'Leary) and running back Karlos Williams. We may have gotten a preview of what like might be like for the Seminoles without Winston, when Sean Maguire filled in at home versus Clemson last season. He completed just 51 percent of his passes, and was picked off twice and sacked five times in that game.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Louisville Cardinals (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1300
Season win total: 7.5

Why be the Cardinals: The Cardinals defense ranked among the best in the country for most of last season, and they return a formidable front seven. Former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields could make a huge impact, and this unit has the potential to be even better than it was in 2014.

Why not to bet the Cardinals: While Reggie Bonnafon appears to be the favorite to win the job for starting quarterback, it's unclear who he will be throwing to. Louisville lost three top receivers from last season, and it also lost three starters on the offensive line. With two of the first three games coming against the likes of Auburn and Clemson, the schedule isn't going to be easy.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Clemson Tigers (2014: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +300
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet on the Tigers: Deshaun Watson returns at quarterback after his season was cut short by a torn ACL in 2014. He threw for 1,466 yards with 14 TDs and just two INTs before the injury. Mike Williams and Artavis Scott provide a couple of dangerous targets, and the duo combined to score 14 TDs on 133 receptions in 2014. If Watson stays healthy, you can expect big things for this offense in 2015.

Why not to bet on the Tigers: When Watson went down last year, things were ugly with Cole Stoudt running the offense. He threw more INTs (10) than he had TDs (9). Another injury to Watson could be devastating for the Tigers.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Miami Hurricanes (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet on the Hurricanes: Quarterback Brad Kaaya was the ACC Rookie of the Year in 2014, and he comes into this season with high expectations. While the Hurricanes lost seven players in the NFL Draft, they have depth at the receiver position and a talented young running back in Joseph Yearby, who ran for 509 yards and a TD as a backup last year.

Why not to bet on the Hurricanes: They lose RB Duke Johnson, WR Phillip Dorsett and three starting offensive linemen including Ereck Flowers. They have plenty of work to do on a special teams unit that ranked last in the conference in kick return yards allowed last season.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Boston College (2014: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +6600
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet on the Eagles: The strength of this team is its defense, which ranked second in rushing yards allowed in 2014. They return five starters on a formidable front seven and their starting free safety, who was the team's leading tackler, will also be back and can play corner as well.

Why not to bet on the Eagles: They will need to replace all five starters on the offensive line, and offensive coordinator Ryan Day has moved on to the NFL (Philadelphia Eagles). They will likely experience some growing pains with an inexperienced group with a new quarterback learning a new system.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

North Carolina State Wolfpack (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1600
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Wolfpack: Jacoby Brissett had a big year for the Wolfpack throwing for 2,606 yards with 26 TDs and only five INTs in 2014. And they averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground last year, their best since 1992. While the offense appears to be in good shape, they also return seven starters on defense.

Why not to bet the Wolfpack: They went from 3-9 in 2013 to 8-5 last year, and because that the bar has been raised heading into this season it could be difficult to deliver on expectations.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Syracuse Orange (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +12500
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Orange: The good news (there isn't much) for the Orange is that they have a proven playmaker in Terrel Hunt at quarterback. Hunt only played in five games last year after breaking his fibula in the loss to Louisville. He's got some work to do as a pocket passer after throwing just one TD pass with four INTs last year, but he was a dual threat with six rushing TDs in his five starts.

Why not to bet the Orange: They will have eight new starters on a defense that was far from impressive in 2014, and Hunt will have to learn a new system with a new offensive coordinator.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2014: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +13500
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Demon Deacons: They return 13 starters from last year, and Dave Clawson is optimistic that this year's team will be improved on both sides of the ball.

“The offensive line was the root of our problems a year ago and that will be a reason for our improvement next year,” said Clawson.

Why not to bet the Demon Deacons: Protecting the quarterback was a major issue last season, allowing 48 sacks - the most in the country. They often went backwards with their attempts to run the ball, failing to gain positive yards on 37 percent of their run plays. With eight freshmen starting on offense in 2015, these problems may not be an easy fix.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

Duke Blue Devils (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1700
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Blue Devils: The strength of this team is its secondary and they return all five starters in 2015. Duke has a soft schedule and it won't have to face ACC powerhouses Clemson and FSU.

Why not to bet the Blue Devils: They will need to replace Anthony Boone at quarterback and the offensive line took a big hit with Laken Tomlinson moving on to the NFL. There could be too many question marks on the offensive side of the ball for this team to deliver another winning season.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2014: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +550
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Yellow Jackets: With quarterback Justin Thomas running the option offense at Georgia Tech in 2014, the Yellow Jackets were tough to stop. Thomas ran for a school record 1,086 yards last season, and he could improve on that mark here in 2015.

Why not to bet the Yellow Jackets: The prognosis isn't as rosy on the defensive side of the ball, as they allowed an average of 411 yards per game last year. The defensive line lacks depth and that will likely continue to be a sore spot.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

North Carolina Tar Heels (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3300
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Tar Heels: The offense is in good shape with dual-threat quarterback Marquise Williams returning after setting a school record for total offense. They return 10 starters, with 100 percent of their running back corps intact. They also have a soft schedule to look forward to, not having to worry about Clemson, FSU or Louisville.

Why not to bet the Tar Heels: There is a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, as this unit allowed an ACC-record 31 passing TDs in 2014. Special teams is also a huge concern for a team that was 0 for 7 with 30-plus yard field goal tries last season.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Pittsburgh Panthers (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Panthers: They return 15 starters, including ACC Player of the Year James Conner, who ran for 1,765 yards and 26 TDs last year. Wide receiver Tyler Boyd became the first player in history to compile 1,000 receiving yards in both his freshman and sophomore seasons.

Why not to bet the Panthers: Once again, there is new coach at the helm in Pittsburgh, as Pat Narduzzi replaces Paul Chryst who went back to Wisconsin. This is a program that has been mired in mediocrity, and that's unlikely to change overnight with another regime change.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Virginia Cavaliers (2014: 5-7 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +6600
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Cavaliers: The Cavs improved on a 2-10 record in 2013 and they appear to be heading in the right direction under head coach Mike London.

Why not to bet the Cavaliers: They lose a couple of key starters on defense with linebacker Max Valles and defensive end Eli Harold going to the NFL. They have a brutal non-conference schedule with UCLA, Boise State and Notre Dame in the first four weeks.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

Virginia Tech Hokies (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +550
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Hokies: The Hokies can say that they were the only team to beat the national champions last year, and winning on the road at Ohio State was an impressive result. A promising start to the season was derailed in 2014, but they might be able to get right back on track here in 2015.

Why not to bet the Hokies: Quarterback Michael Brewer showed flashes of brilliance at times last year, but he made more than his fair share of mistakes. His offensive line didn't do him any favors and that's likely to be a weakness again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 8

**Udog** · 07-25-2015, 08:46 AM

Independents college football betting preview: Playoffs not out of reach for Notre Dame

With the Navy Midshipmen off to the American Athletic Conference, we are left with just three independent programs. Two of the three look like they could be headed for bowl berths, while the other loos like it will finish nowhere near contention.

AAA Sports breaks down the Independent programs and gives season win total picks for each heading into the 2015 college football season.

Brigham Young Cougars (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Cougars: Scoring should not be a problem, assuming either of their big guns (QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams) are and stay healthy. BYU’s shot at an A+ season went down the tubes when Hill suffered a broken leg in Game 5 last season. He’s a run-pass QB, who should get plenty of protection from Williams, who could finish the year with the most yards gained of any ball-carrier in school history.

Why not bet the Cougars: Might be a good idea to take a long look at over play until BYU’s defense shows it can stop decent offenses. The Cougars will head into camp not knowing what the secondary will look like.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2014: 8-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Season win total: 9

Why bet the Fighting Irish: This may be the deepest team Brian Kelly has had as he enters his 6th season as head coach. Only four starters will not return from a team that averaged 33 points and 445 yards in total offense last season. A few wins early would move the Irish into the top 10 and rekindle hopes for its second shot at a national title game in the last four seasons.

Why not bet the Fighting Irish: As a national team, Notre Dame’s lines are always skewed a bit because the Irish always get action. Add to that the unsettling fact that ND gave up 40 points per game in its last eight last season, and there is cause for concern among wagerers.

Season win total pick: Under 9

Army Black Knights (2014: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Black Knights: There should be plenty of opportunity for underdog play here. If you catch a heavy betting line, it might be worth a shot because the Knights figure to run the ball early and often, shortening games if they can. (All out of necessity, because there is no experienced QB.)

Why not bet the Black Knights: Army will once again be a slow, plodding team as the coaching staff slowly tries to improve team speed. But there really isn’t much returning from a team that over the last several years has struggled to be competitive with even low-level scholarship programs.

Season win total pick: Over 3.5

**Udog** · 07-30-2015, 10:27 PM

Sun Belt college football betting preview: Value to be had in small conference

The Sun Belt looks like a four-team race for the title, but that means there’s big betting value outside of those contenders in college football’s tiniest conference.

Steve Merril breaks down the betting in the Sun Belt and gives his season win total projections for each of its programs heading into the new college football campaign:

Appalachian State Mountaineers (2014: 7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +150
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Mountaineers: Appalachian State returns the most experienced team in the country as 20 starters are back after a 7-5 season in 2014. The Mountaineers won their last six games of last season, so they have momentum coming into this year. Sophomore QB Taylor Lamb threw for 2,381 yards with 17 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions, so the offense should match the 35.7 points per game they scored last season.

Why not bet the Mountaineers: The team moved up from FCS to FBS last season, and after opening 1-5, Appalachian State appeared to be overmatched. That question still needs to be answered this season, especially since they are going from low expectations to high expectations. The Mountaineers will likely be overvalued after finishing the end of 2014 on a winning streak.

Season win total pick: Over 8

Arkansas State Red Wolves (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas State finally has the same coach (Blake Anderson) for a second season in a row; their three previous coaches were all one and done. The Red Wolves have been a consistent team over the last three seasons despite the coaching carousel. They are 25-14 over their last 39 games, so they’ve developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro. With 15 returning starters, the Red Wolves will once again be a solid team in 2015.

Why not bet the Red Wolves: The Red Wolves return just six starters on defense, and that unit was awful last season despite playing with seven returnees from the season before. Arkansas State gave up 30.5 points on 421 yards per game, and unless the Red Wolves can fix their defensive woes, 2015 will be a .500 season at best.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Georgia Southern Eagles (2014: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern is 47-19 over the last five years, so the program knows how to win. The Eagles have an outstanding running game that has averaged 324 yards per game or more in four consecutive seasons. Georgia Southern’s ability to run the ball and control the clock makes them a formidable opponent.

Why not bet the Eagles: The Eagles only return 13 overall starters, so second-year head coach Willie Fritz has his work cut out for him. Depth may also be an issue for Georgia Southern as they are still upping their scholarship players as FBS teams grant twenty more spots than FCS rules permit. The season will come down to how fast Fritz can acclimate the newer players to a higher level of football.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Georgia State Panthers (2014: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +6000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Panthers: After going 1-23 over the last two seasons, there’s nowhere to go but up for Georgia State in 2015. The Panthers do return 17 overall starters, and their offense should improve once again after being better in 2014 than they were in 2013. Expectations are extremely low for Georgia State, so they’ll be getting full value in the majority of their games.

Why not bet the Panthers: Georgia State is 0-15 against Sun Belt opponents over the last two years, and there’s nothing to suggest a significant improvement in 2015. The Panthers have a terrible defense that gave up 43.3 points on 497 yards of offense per game in 2014. A 3-win season in 2015 will be considered a success for Georgia State.

Season win total pick: Over 2

Idaho Vandals (2014: 1-10 SU, 8-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Vandals: The step-down in class did no favors for Idaho last season after relocating to the Sun Belt conference. But the Vandals will likely improve off their one win season. Head coach Paul Petrino will be in his third season, and he says this team is much stronger and faster than the last two years. Expectations are extremely low once again, so Idaho will hold value all season.

Why not bet the Vandals: The Vandals are just 3-32 over the last three seasons, and they haven’t had a winning season since 1999. Idaho returns just 12 starters in 2015 which ties them for the fewest in the conference. The Vandals’ defense also needs to improve significantly as they allowed 37.3 points on 463 yards per game last year.

Season win total pick: Under 3

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +650
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: Louisiana has gone 9-4 in four consecutive seasons, so they are the epitome of a consistent team. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 18-5 in Sun Belt play over the last three years, and they are 7-1 in their last eight conference road games. The offense has been terrific in the five years under head coach Mark Hudspeth, and his system has proven to work against Sun Belt opponents.

Why not bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: The team only returns 12 starters, and they must replace veteran quarterback Terrance Broadway. Louisiana’s season will hinge on their defense, a unit that only gave up 26 points per game, but allowed 406 yards of offense per game in 2014. If the stop unit fails to make improvement, 2015 will be a mediocre season for Louisiana Lafayette.

Season win total pick: Under 8

UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Warhawks: UL Monroe was much better in 2014 than their 4-8 record indicates. The Warhawks went 1-7 down the stretch, but five of those losses came by seven points or less. Monroe returns eight defensive starters from a unit that only gave up 26.3 points per game. The Warhawks play a quirky 3-3-5 defensive scheme, and they will likely have the best defense in the conference.

Why not bet the Warhawks: The Warhawks really need to improve their offense. They scored just 20.1 points per game last season. The schedule doesn’t help either, especially since Monroe will play at Georgia and at Alabama in September. They’ll also close the season by playing six of their last nine games on the road.

Season win total pick: Over 4

New Mexico State Aggies (2014: 2-10 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Aggies: New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference for the second consecutive season. Head coach Doug Martin will be in his third season, and he has 18 returning starters to work with. The Aggies’ offense will surprise teams, especially since the unit is now experienced in Martin’s system. Their ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2015.

Why not bet the Aggies: The Aggies have gone a woeful 4-20 in Martin’s first two years. New Mexico State’s major issues have come on the defensive side of the ball. Over the last two years, they’ve allowed an average of 41.9 points and 517 yards per game. They do return ten starters to that unit, but they must learn new schemes under new defensive coordinator Zane Vance, their second new coach in as many seasons.

Season win total pick: Under 3

South Alabama Jaguars (2014: 6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1800
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Jaguars: South Alabama has been bowl-eligible the last two seasons, and they’ve had winning records in conference play as well. Head coach Joey Jones has built a solid program, and the talent level seems to get better and better in each and every season. The Jaguars have proven to be a competitive bunch, so they can’t be counted out in too many games.

Why not bet the Jaguars: The Jaguars come into the 2015 season with the least experienced team in all of FBS. South Alabama returns just five total starters, but they do have eight transfers from the defunct UAB program to incorporate. However, mixing those veterans with the youth of South Alabama may prove to be too much for head coach Jones. The Jaguars are talented, but it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.

Season win total pick: Over 3

Texas State Bobcats (2014: 7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1200
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats will be in their fifth year under head coach Dennis Franchione, and with 14 returning starters, Texas State should have a pretty good season. The offense has a very strong rushing attack that can eat clock while paying ball control. They return a lot of experience along the offensive line, so their ability to run the ball will be the reason for their success.

Why not bet the Bobcats: Texas State’s defense lost their best player, David Mayo, and they only return six starters. Defensive coordinator John Thompson implemented a tricky 4-2-5 scheme last year, but with the veteran losses, it’s quite likely that the Bobcats’ defense will be their detriment in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Troy Trojans (2014: 3-9 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3800
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Trojans: Troy had a terrible 3-9 record in 2014, and because of that, expectations are low. The Trojans’ offense projected to be explosive last year, but they only averaged 21.8 points per game. With seven starters returning on that side of the ball, and with offensive guru Neal Brown the new head coach, Troy may be a sneaky good team in 2015.

Why not bet the Trojans: Larry Blakeney won 178 games as Troy’s head coach over 24 seasons, but as mentioned above, Neal Brown is the new head coach. The offense should be fine, but the defense needs to improve a lot. The Trojans have allowed 30 points per game or more in five straight seasons. Troy’s team success hinges on the stop unit in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 4

**Udog** · 08-01-2015, 12:20 PM

Big Ten conference college football betting preview: Plenty of talent returns to Ohio State

Will Rogers breaks down the best ways to wager on the Big 10 and gives his season win total picks for each of its members heading into the new college football campaign.

Ohio State Buckeyes (2014: 14-1 SU, 10-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: -260
Season win total: 11

Why to bet the Buckeyes: No team enjoys as much quarterback depth as the Buckeyes, who boast three signal callers that are all considered legitimate Heisman hopefuls. They return plenty of talent from last year's championship squad, including star running back Ezekiel Elliot, who ran for 1402 yards and a dozen TDs last season. This year's schedule presents very little problems, with their toughest game looking like a home game against Michigan State.

Why not to bet the Buckeyes: The only thing not to like about this team is that expectations are sky high. OSU is going to be a heavy favorite week in and week out, and it's not going to be easy to live up to all the hype. There's also a potential for a quarterback controversy that could prove to be a distraction to the team.

Season win total pick: Over 11

Michigan State Spartans (2014: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 9.5

Why to bet the Spartans: Conner Cook returns at quarterback for the Spartans after throwing for 3214 yards and 24 TDs with just eight INTs last season. Senior All-American Jack Allen is the rock in what is projected to be one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Why not to bet the Spartans: With the loss of Big10 Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett and 1500 yard rusher Jeremy Langford leaves the Spartans with unproven players at key positions on offense. The schedule isn't going to be easy either, hosting Oregon in Week 2, and playing on the road in Columbus in November. When it's all said and done, it's hard to see the Spartans knocking off the defending champs.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5

Wisconsin Badgers (2014: 11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1200
Season win total: 10

Why to bet the Badgers: Last year Wisconsin ranked 4th in the nation in total defense, and 17th in scoring defense. This season's squad will boast a ton of talent with the likes of junior outside linebacker Vince Biegel who led the team with 16.5 tackles for a loss, and senior outside linebacker Joe Schobert, who recorded 13.5 tackles for a loss in 2014. They will have plenty of experience in the secondary with both starting corners returning along with senior safety Michael Caputo.

Why not to bet the Badgers: The quarterback position was a glaring weakness for Wisconsin in 2014, and they bring back five year senior Joel Stave for another year. He threw more picks (10) than he did TDs (9) last season, completing just 53 percent of his passes. The Badgers have high hopes for junior running back Corey Clement, but he's got big shoes to fill replacing Melvin Gordon.

Season win total pick: Under 10

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1700
Season win total: 8

Why to bet on the Cornhuskers: First year head coach Mike Riley brings a more relaxed approach to Nebraska, which is in stark contrast to his predecessor Bo Pelini, who has a reputation for being a bit of a hot head. While he will make the transition to more of a pro-style offense, the transition will be made easier with Tommy Armstrong Jr. returning at quarterback after throwing for 2695 yards and 22 TDs last season.

Why not to bet on the Cornhuskers: They will need to replace All-American running back Ameer Abdullah, who ran for 1583 yards and 18 TDs in 2014. Nebraska will not have much time to settle in under a new coach and a new system, as they are thrown right into the fire with tough non-conference games against BYU and Miami in the first three weeks.

Season win total pick: Over 8

Michigan Wolverines (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet on the Wolverines: Michigan's defense was one of the more underrated units in the country last year, and they finished 2014 ranked 7th in the country in total defense. They bring back 24 of the 29 players that appeared on the final depth chart last year, and they bring talented freshman Jabrill Peppers into the mix.

Why not to bet on the Wolverines: Last season under Brady Hoke the Wolverines ranked 107th nationally in passing, and it's likely going to take a while before we see vast improvements. There is still a ton of uncertainty at the quarterback position, and a lack of offense could put too much pressure on the defense.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Penn State Nittany Lions (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Nittany Lions: Last year quarterback Christian Hackenberg was sacked 44 times (the most in the Big10). Inexperience on the offensive line was their biggest weakness in 2014, and that's something that has been addressed. They return six starters from last year's O-line, and we should see Hackenberg improve on a miserable 2014 season.

Why not to bet the Nittany Lions: Hackenberg regressed in 2014, throwing more picks (15) than TDs (12). While you can certainly blame a lot of that on an inexperienced offensive line, we could see some of the same problems carry over into the 2015 season.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Minnesota Golden Gophers (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 5.5

Why to bet the Golden Gophers: The Gophers bring back seven starters on defense, and they are in good hands with last year's Big10 Coach of the Year Jerry Kill. “We’ve got a chance to be a really, really good football team,” Kill says. “We’re very athletic on both sides of the ball.”

Why not to bet the Golden Gophers: They return only four starters on offense and junior quarterback Mitch Leidner completed 51 percent of his passes throwing for 11 TDs and eight INTs. They ranked 119th in the nation in passing in 2014, and it's more than likely that a struggling offense will put a ton of pressure on their defense.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Iowa Hawkeyes (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +4500
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Hawkeyes: The departure of quarterback Jake Ruddock is likely to be a positive thing for the Hawkeyes, who hope that junior C.J. Beathard will be more of a playmaker. Ruddock was often criticized for being too conservative, while Beathard wasn't afraid to air it out, showing off his powerful arm.

Why not to bet the Hawkeyes: If Iowa's loss to Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl is any indication of what to expect from this year's defense, the Hawkeyes will be in big trouble. The Vols ran for 283 yards in that game, winning by a score of 45-28.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Northwestern Wildcats (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +8000
Season win total: 6.5

Why to bet the Wildcats: With 15 starters returning from last season's depth chart, the Wildcats should have a chance to improve on a 5-7 record in 2014. They bring back talented running back Justin Jackson who ranked 4th among Power 5 freshman in all purpose yards (98.9 per game). They also have Christian Jones coming back at WR, and he led the team in receiving the last two years.

Why not to bet the Wildcats: There are still plenty of question marks at the quarterback position, and whoever wins the job will be thrown into the fire in a Week 1 game against Stanford. Playing at Duke two weeks later might not be a cakewalk either.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5

Maryland Terrapins (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +12000
Season win total: 4.5

Why to bet the Terrapins: Senior Caleb Rowe steps in at quarterback after throwing for 489 yards, five TDs and four INTs in four appearances last year. They should have more size on an improved offensive line, and they return proven playmakers at receiver and last year's top two running backs Brandon Ross and Wes Brown.

Why not to bet on the Terrapins: The conference schedule looks brutal with road games at East Lansing and Columbus, and home games against Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin. The bad news for Maryland is that they will face much stiffer competition in the Big10 this year.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5

Indiana Hoosiers (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +14000
Season win total: 6

Why to bet the Hoosiers: Nate Sudfeld is back at quarterback for the Hoosiers after missing the second half of last season with a shoulder injury. Head coach Kevin Wilson was able to fill a few holes with players coming over from UAB, after the school discontinued it's football program.

Why to not to bet the Hoosiers: It's not going to be easy to replace Tevin Coleman who ran for 2036 yards and 15 TDs in 2014, and was the best running back in school history. The defense has a long way to go after allowing 32.8 points per game, ranking 102nd nationally.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Illinois Fighting Illini (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +20000
Season win total: 3.5

Why to bet the Illini: Wes Lunt returns at quarterback after throwing for 1729 yards, 14 TDs and just three INTs in 2014. Those are pretty impressive numbers when you consider that he missed five games and battled injuries throughout the season.

Why not to bet the Illini: Leading receiver Mike Dudek tore his ACL back in April, and he'll miss at least the first half of the season. They have a tough conference schedule with home games against Wisconsin, Nebraska and Ohio State, and road games at Penn State and Iowa.

Season win total pick: Over 3.5

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +30000
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Scarlet Knights: Kyle Flood's offense appears to be in good shape, despite having to replace quarterback Gary Nova. They boast a talented backfield with the likes of Paul James, Justin Goodwin, Josh Hicks, Robert Martin and Desmon Peoples. Leonte Caroo had 55 catches for 1086 yards and 10 TDs last season, and he chose to forgo the NFL draft and will return for his senior season.

Why not to bet the Scarlet Knights: They ranked dead last in the conference in almost every defensive category a year ago, and they lost to Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan State by a combined score of 180–44.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Purdue Boilermakers (2014: 3-9 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +30000
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Boilermakers: Purdue will return six players on the offensive line that saw time as starters in 2014, and quarterback Austin Appleby will be back at quarterback. Appleby threw for 202 yards and a TD on 15-of-20 passing in a win over Illinois in his first start.

Why not to bet on the Boilermakers: After the win over Illinois, Purdue lost it's final six games of the season. Appleby threw for just eight TDs and 10 INTs in those six losses. There doesn't appear to be enough talent available to compete with the big boys of the Big10.

Season win total pick: Under 4

**Udog** · 08-03-2015, 09:22 PM

Pac-12 college football betting preview: Mariota gone, but plenty of talent left in Oregon

Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota might be off to the NFL, but there is still a bevy of talent to go around as the Oregon Ducks look to win another Pac-12 conference title in 2015-16.

AAA Sports breaks down the best ways to wager on the Pac-12 and gives his season win total picks for each of its members heading into the new college football campaign.

Oregon Ducks (2014: 13-2 SU, 10-5ATS)

Odds to win conference: 9-4
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Ducks: Oregon might be a bit underrated after losing Marcus Mariota to the pros, but bettors are advised that there are plenty of returning players at skilled positions to help transfer QB Vernon Adams keep the offense humming. Be ready to jump on any tight lines.

Why not to bet the Ducks: It might take a while early on for the Ducks to get it going, especially if they are still hung over from playing for the national title last season. Week 2 (at Michigan State) will provide a good early test, but other than that there are no tough games until the end of October, so they’ll have to cover some big numbers.

Season win total pick: Over 9

USC Trojans (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 11-4
Season win total: 8

Why to bet the Trojans: Expectations are high this season after they went 9-4 a year ago. Top-flight QB Cody Kessler (maybe the best in the conference) returns, and he’s joined by a solid offensive line and several playmakers. In all, 14 starters are back.

Why not to bet the Trojans: This group at USC hasn’t shown that it can win tight games. There’s a feeling that the Trojans left a few wins (losses to Utah, Arizona State, Boston College) on the table last season. Another mid-level bowl appearance would be a downer.

Season win total pick: Over 8

Stanford Cardinal (2014: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Cardinal: The Cardinal were a few field goals away from another double-digit win season in 2014, and they have a veteran team returning – led by third-year QB starter Kevin Hogan. The D was solid last season, and should be just as good this time around.

Why not to bet the Cardinal: They could challenge for the Pac 12 title, but things have to go right. Like USC, they couldn’t make plays in the fourth quarter last season and wound up taking three tough losses. The ground game doesn’t look a lot better than it did last season.

Season win total pick: PUSH

UCLA Bruins (2014: 10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Bruins: Any team that has 17 starters back from a club that won 10 games has to feel good about itself, and hopes are high at UCLA. Lots of eyes will be on RB Paul Perkins, who led the Pac 12 in rushing last season.

Why not to bet the Bruins: Do you think a freshman recruit at QB (Josh Rosen) can get your team a league title and trip to the Final Four? Probably not, and that’s the rub. The defense looks good, but coaches need to do some patch work in the secondary.

Season win total pick: Over 9

Arizona State Sun Devils (2014: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 6-1
Season win total: 8

Why to bet the Sun Devils: Winning is in the water (what there is of it in the desert, anyway), and the Sun Devils are now in the habit of cranking out 10-win seasons. There’s lots of talent returning, which should ease the burden on new QB Mike Bercovici.

Why not to bet the Sun Devils: The early schedule is nasty. They open at Texas A&M, then after a couple of cupcakes the pre-November docket has nothing but tough games. If they survive until the arrival of cooler weather, they should be OK.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Arizona Wildcats (2014: 10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 7-1
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Wildcats: Things didn’t work out at Michigan for Rich Rodriguez, but he’s been aces at Arizona, where the Cats won 10 times for the first time in 16 years and advanced to the Pac 12 title game. Everything is pointed up.

Why not to bet the Wildcats: Arizona might have a low O/U number because the Pac 12 South will be so good this season. Depth could be a problem, too, especially for a team that does not have a bye week.

Season win total pick: PUSH

Utah Utes (2014: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 10-1
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Utes: Quite frankly, Utah does not have the treasure trove of talent that other teams in the conference have, but the Utes compete every time out. They have a good one in RB Devontae Booker, who plays his best (130 yards per game) against conference opponents.

Why not to bet the Utes: Have they peaked? Utah won several close games last season, and the Utes don’t figure to score a ton of points this time around. If those one-possession games go against them, it could be a tough year.

Season win total pick: Under 7

California Golden Bears (2014: 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 18-1
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Golden Bears: Cal likes its offense. The QB is good – Jared Goff has tossed for 53 touchdowns in his career and should add at least another 20 running the frenetic no-huddle offense. They’ll score . . .

Why not to bet the Golden Bears: . . . and they’ll also give up a ton – but hopefully not as many as last season, when opposing QBs burned Cal for 42 passing touchdowns. The way the Bears run their offense, the defense is on the field a lot.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Washington Huskies (2014: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 30-1
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Huskies: Chris Peterson is in Year Two of the program’s rebuild, and while there are myriad problems, the Huskies feel they can control the clock behind aptly-named RB Dwayne Washington, a bruiser who could be among the best in the country.

Why not to bet the Huskies: Only 9 starters return from an OK team last year, and while the secondary looks OK, opponents figure to pound away at Washington’s porous D-line. Could be a tough year in Seattle.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Washington State Cougars (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 40-1
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Cougars: Expectations were lowered after Washington State took a step back after going to a bowl in 2013, but there is a good offense on board this season behind a decent QB (Luke Falk), and if things break right they could cover some spreads.

Why not to bet the Cougars: The defense was chaotic last season, and the D-coordinator was let go in mid-season. Yikes. Bringing in a slew on JUCO transfers is a sign that they’re having trouble luring blue-chip recruits to Pullman.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Colorado Buffaloes (2014: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 50-1
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Buffaloes: The won-loss tally was disturbing, but Colorado was actually competitive in the conference last season. They have a good QB in Sefo Liufu, and a rotation of running backs that should kill clock.

Why not to bet the Buffaloes: There is still a bad aftertaste after the way the defense played last year, and several coaches on that side of the ball were let go. Moving forward in the Pac 12 is out of the question until the Buffaloes can tighten things up on that side of the ball.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Oregon State Beavers (2014: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 50-1
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Beavers: Could be value to be had with big lines as Oregon State starts over with new coach Gary Andersen. Since no returning QB has any experience, they’ll pound the ball with veteran RB Storm Woods. When they do throw, the wideouts aren’t half-bad.

Why not to bet the Beavers: Only two starters return on defense from a team that struggled on D last season. It’s going to be a tough grind as OSU continues to play second fiddle in the state.

Season win total pick: Under 4

**Udog** · 08-05-2015, 08:47 PM

C-USA college football betting preview: Marshall thundering towards another C-USA crown

Much like 2014, it will be the Marshall Thundering Herd that sets the tone in C-USA East and overall in the conference. The Herd are the favorites heading into the regular season and are coming off a fantastic 2014 campaign.

Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to bet the C-USA and gives his season win total picks for each of its members heading into the new college football campaign:

Charlotte 49ers (2014: 5-6 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +50000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the 49ers: Charlotte will be in their third season under head coach Brad Lambert, and the 49ers return 17 starters from last year's team that went 5-6. Five of their six losses came by 8 points or less, so Charlotte was a competitive team in 2014. Close games tend to reverse the following season, and since the 49ers will likely be underdogs in the majority of their games, they could surprise some opponents in 2015.

Why not bet the 49ers: The team is transitioning from FCS to FBS in 2015. And in fact, Charlotte has never played an FBS opponent before, so the big step-up in class may prove to be too demanding for the 49ers. FBS teams are typically bigger, stronger, and faster than FCS teams, so it will be interesting to see how Charlotte matches-up with their opponents.

Season win total pick: Under 2

Florida Atlantic Owls (2014: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3200
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Owls: The team only won three games in 2014, but they played much better than their record indicates. Florida Atlantic lost an incredible four games in which they led with less than a minute left to play. With 12 starters returning for the second season under head coach Charlie Partridge, the Owls could surprise in 2015.

Why not bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic was terrible in road games last season. The Owls went 0-7 away from home while getting out-scored 255-96. They can't be trusted on the road until they show some competitiveness. The schedule is also tough as they'll face eight opponents that won 6 games or more last season.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Florida International Golden Panthers (2014: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +30000
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Golden Panthers: Florida International was much better in head coach Ron Turner's second season despite only winning four games. The Panthers lost four games by three points or less, so they were a competitive team in 2014. With 15 returning starters, the Panthers should improve once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Golden Panthers: Ron Turner has only had three winning seasons in eleven years as a head coach. Florida International has had a losing season in eight of the last ten years, so coach and program have a long history of losing. Florida International faces a brutal schedule with seven road games, including four of their first five games coming away from home.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Marshall Thundering Herd (2014: 13-1 SU, 8-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +230
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall is once again the favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd also get a favorable schedule as they avoid the top two teams (LA Tech and Rice) from the West division. Marshall has the most talent in C-USA, so they are deserving of their high expectations.

Why not bet the Thundering Herd: The Thundering Herd only returns 11 starters, and they must replace quarterback Rakeem Cato who threw for 3,903 yards and 40 touchdown passes in 2014. Marshall's offense averaged 45.6 points per game in 2014, and it's highly unlikely they'll repeat that in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 10

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (2014: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee State returns 16 starters this season, and they've been excellent in conference play. The Blue Raiders are 11-5 SU against conference opponents over the last two years, and this year's team is more talented and more experienced.

Why not bet the Blue Raiders: MTSU's defense inexplicably had a bad season in 2014. The stop unit was projected to be one of the best in the conference, but they allowed 31.5 points and 452 yards per game. Middle Tennessee's season hinges on the play of their defense, and a repeat of 2014 will make them an average team in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Old Dominion Monarchs (2014: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion went a respectable 6-6 in their first full year in the FBS. The Monarchs have a winning program; they are 52-20 SU over the last ten years. Head coach Bobby Wilder begins his seventh season, and he's built a potent offensive system that has averaged 32.7 points per game or more in all six of his years at Old Dominion.

Why not bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion's problem has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Monarchs have allowed an average of 36 points and 452 yards per game over the last two years. They only return five starters on defense this season, and there's nothing to suggest the stop unit will be improved.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +305
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky's offense projects to be explosive once again this season with 7 starters returning, including QB Brandon Doughty. The Hilltoppers averaged 44.4 points per game in 2014 under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm. Western Kentucky will be a tough team to stop in 2015.

Why not bet the Hilltoppers: The team returns nine starters on defense, but numerous question marks still remain. The unit gave up 39.9 points on 510 yards per game last season, so major improvement is needed if Western Kentucky wants to take a step forward.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2014: 9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +280
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Bulldogs: Louisiana Tech is in their third year under head coach Skip Holtz, and the Bulldogs are the clear-cut favorites to win the West. The Bulldogs will have Florida transfer Jeff Driskel at quarterback, so the offense shouldn't skip a beat after averaging 37.4 points per game in 2014.

Why not bet the Bulldogs: Last season, Louisiana Tech fielded a strong and opportunistic defense. They gave up just 24.7 points per game while forcing 42 turnovers, the most in the nation. However, only six starters return on the stop unit, so their numbers are quite likely to regress sharply in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 8

North Texas Mean Green (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Mean Green: North Texas has a pretty good defense based on C-USA standards. The Mean Green returns six starters from a unit that only allowed 29.8 points per game in 2014. They only had four defensive starters return last season, so they turned in a decent result considering the circumstances. Their ability to play solid defense may be enough to keep them competitive.

Why not bet the Mean Green: The team has a slew of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, especially along the line. North Texas must replace four starters on the line, and their quarterback situation remains in flux. The Mean Green also play a brutal schedule that includes seven true road games.

Season win total pick: Under 5

Rice Owls (2014: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Owls: Rice is 18-9 over the last two seasons, so they come into the 2015 season with confidence and momentum. The Owls' best offensive attribute is their running game, and their ability to possess the ball and control the clock makes them very competitive in this conference.

Why not bet the Owls: Rice only returns three starters on defense, so they are basically starting over on that side of the ball. The Owls tend to get overwhelmed by strong offenses, and that will be the case once again this season, especially with little experience returning.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Golden Eagles: The Golden Eagles return 16 starters, and they will be in the third year of head coach Todd Monken's system. Improvement often occurs in the third year of a coach's tenure, especially when the offense and defense was better than the season before.

Why not bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss is an ugly 4-32 SU over the last three years. The offense returns ten starters, so they'll have no excuse in 2015, but we're still talking about a unit that only averaged 19 points per game last season. Southern Miss has been an underdog in 20 of their last 24 games, but they project to be favored in half of their games this season. Backing losing teams when laying points is not a winning strategy.

Season win total pick: Over 4

UTEP Miners (2014: 7-6 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3200
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Miners: UTEP will be in the third year of head coach Sean Kugler's system. Kugler cleaned out the dead weight, and the team responded by going 7-6 in 2014. The team is built to be a physical running team, and their offensive line is one of the best in C-USA. The Miners can control the clock, and that alone can keep them competitive.

Why not bet the Miners: The Miners shocked everybody last year by making a bowl game. But UTEP only returns 11 starters in 2015, and their unexpected reversal of form sets them up to regress a bit. The Miners were actually out-scored 28.1-26.6 in 2014 despite having a winning record. UTEP will likely be a .500 team at best in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 6

UTSA Roadrunners (2014: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Roadrunners: UTSA returned one of the most experienced teams in the country last year as 20 starters were back. Expectations were extremely high, but the team disappointed, going just 4-8 SU and ATS. The opposite is the case in 2015 as expectations are low with only six returning starters. The Roadrunners will be underdogs in just about every game, so they may be able to sneak inside the big numbers.

Why not bet the Roadrunners: The Roadrunners are one of the least experienced teams in all of college football this season. Their first four games are all extremely tough with road games at Arizona and Oklahoma State while hosting Kansas State and Colorado State. UTEP's confidence will be quite low after September, so tread lightly when backing this team in conference play.

Season win total pick: Over 2

**Udog** · 08-07-2015, 09:31 PM

Mountain West college football betting preview: Look for Boise State to be strong yet again

Once again, the Boise State Broncos look to run away with the Mountain West Conference as 17 starters from the 12-win 2014 program return.

Steve Merril looks at all 12 Mountain West teams and give season win total picks for each heading into the 2015 campaign.

Air Force Falcons (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1600
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Falcons: Air Force is a team that always gives their all, and for that reason alone, they can never be counted out of a game. The Falcons return 11 starters from their 10-win team in 2014, and that is a decent amount of experience for a service academy team. Air Force may prove to be a tough out once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Falcons: They made a big jump last season, going from 2 wins in 2013 to 10 wins in 2014. The biggest improvement came on defense where they held opponents to just 24.2 points per game after allowing 40 points per game the season before. Teams that fit that profile tend to regress the following season, so it’s highly unlikely the Falcons will repeat last season’s success.

Season win total pick: Over 6

Boise State Broncos (2014: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -260
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Broncos: Boise State has a strong team every year, and 2015 will be no different. The Broncos have the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference by a wide margin, so they will dominate the line of scrimmage in their games. With 17 returning starters, Boise State has a formidable team once again in 2015.

Why not bet the Broncos: Despite the abundance of talent still on hand, Boise State has to replace quarterback Grant Hedrick and running back Jay Ajayi on offense. The Broncos also have to replace exceptional place kicker Dan Goodale who led a very good special teams unit. Boise State is a known commodity, so there’s not much value left on the Broncos.

Season win total pick: Under 10

Colorado State Rams (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2300
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Rams: Colorado State has gone 18-9 over the last two years, so they’ve been a much better team in recent seasons. The Rams return 15 starters, so there’s plenty of playing experience coming back. Colorado State will certainly be underdogs against the top teams in the conference, so the value will remain in 2015 despite winning 18 games over the last two seasons.

Why not bet the Rams: The Rams have a lot to replace, beginning with head coach Jim McElwain. Mike Bobo takes over, and he’ll have to replace a top quarterback, running back, and their top two defensive players. Colorado State’s conference schedule is tough, especially since they finish the season by playing three of their last four games on the road.

Season win total pick: Under 7

New Mexico Lobos (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Lobos: Head coach Bob Davie returns for his fourth season at New Mexico, and he has 14 returning starters to work with. The Lobos have a terrific rushing attack that has averaged over 300 yards per game in all three seasons under Davie. New Mexico’s ability to run the ball and control the clock keeps them competitive in the majority of their games.

Why not bet the Lobos: New Mexico hasn’t had a winning season since 2007, and a major reason for that has been the lack of a defense. The Lobos’ defense has allowed and average of 36.3 points and 493.3 yards per game over the last three years. Last year, New Mexico was out-gained by an average of 148 yards per game in conference play alone.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Utah State Aggies (2014: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1000
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Aggies: Utah State had a revolving door at quarterback in 2014, and they still won 10 games. The Aggies will return talented Chuckie Keeton under center this year after his missed the final 10 games with injury. Keeton is dynamic, and he’ll lead an offense that returns nine starters. Utah State’s defense is also terrific as they’ve held opponents to just an average of 17.4 points per game over the last three seasons.

Why not bet the Aggies: The team has a lot of promise, but keep in mind their best player is coming back from multiple injuries. It’s no given that Keeton will be healthy, and if his injuries reoccur, the Aggies could regress sharply. Utah State is a popular sleeper team in the MWC this season, so they will be playing with the pressure of high expectations.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Wyoming Cowboys (2014: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Cowboys: Wyoming will play their second season under head coach Craig Bohl who was very successful at North Dakota State (104-32). The Cowboys were transitioning new schemes on both sides of the ball last season, so year two should see a nice improvement, especially on offense. Wyoming will have a good offensive line and a good running game, so they’ll be a competitive team in 2015.

Why not bet the Cowboys: The biggest concern coming into 2015 for Wyoming is their inexperience. The Cowboys only return 9 starters which is the fewest in the Mountain West conference. The schedule is weak early on, but Wyoming will have to face Boise State and Utah State in back-to-back weeks on the road to close out the month of October.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Fresno State Bulldogs (2014: 6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3300
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Tim DeRuyter has done a fantastic job in his three years at Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 20-6 in conference play under DeRuyter, so they have plenty of confidence coming into the 2015 season. Fresno State is off an overall disappointing 6-8 season, so there’s plenty of motivation for a winning season in 2015.

Why not bet the Bulldogs: The Bulldogs only return 11 starters, and they play a brutal non-conference schedule this season. Fresno State will play at Mississippi and at BYU while hosting Utah. Those three games are tough, especially for a team that regressed on both sides of the ball in 2014. There’s a lot of unknowns for the Bulldogs coming into this season, so taking a wait and see approach may be the best thing to do early on.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Hawaii Warriors (2014: 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +6600
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Warriors: Hawaii suffered through another miserable 4-9 season in head coach Norm Chow’s third year on the job. Expectations are extremely low in Honolulu, so the Warriors may be able to surprise some teams this year. Hawaii does return 14 starters, so there are some positives coming into 2015.

Why not bet the Warriors: The program has been in steady decline over the last four seasons, and the talent has dropped off significantly. Losing teams are hard to back, especially when they are just 8-29 under their current head coach. The schedule is brutal with trips to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Boise State. It will be more of the same for Hawaii in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Nevada Wolf Pack (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3500
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Wolf Pack: Nevada made a nice improvement in 2014 in their second season under head coach Brian Polian. The Wolf Pack won 7 games last season, and their record could have been even better as three of their losses came by exactly 7 points each. The offense and defense improved on both sides of the ball, so another step forward will get Nevada into another bowl game in 2015.

Why not bet the Wolf Pack: The team returns only 11 starters after having 17 starters back for last season. The Wolf Pack lost senior quarterback Cody Fajardo to graduation, and his production is of utmost importance to replace. Nevada’s defense will have the spotlight on them, but after losing some key pieces, it’s a stretch to think they can match last year’s numbers when they allowed a respectable 27.2 points per game.

Season win total pick: Under 7

San Diego State Aztecs (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Aztecs: San Diego State has had a winning record in five consecutive years, and with 14 returning starters, 2015 should be another winning campaign. The Aztecs play a favorable schedule this season, and their defense will be a stout unit once again. They only allowed 19.8 points per game in 2014.

Why not bet the Aztecs: The Aztecs regressed on offense last season, so they’ll need to bounce back strong if they want to contend for a conference title in 2015. San Diego State also needs significant improvement away from home where they went just 1-5 last season.

Season win total pick: Over 7

San Jose State Spartans (2014: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Spartans: San Jose State will be in their third season under head coach Ron Caragher, and significant improvement is quite possible. The Spartans return 16 starters, including ten on offense. San Jose State will be underdogs in the majority of their games this season, but don’t sell the Spartans short in 2015.

Why not bet the Spartans: Even though San Jose State returns ten offensive starters, the unit was terrible last season; they only averaged 19.3 points per game in 2014. The Spartans also play a very tough schedule, including games at Oregon State and at Auburn out of conference.

Season win total pick: Over 4

UNLV Rebels (2014: 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +35000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Rebels: UNLV is projected be one of the worst teams in college football this season. And that means the Rebels will likely be big underdogs in just about every one of their games this season. With expectations extremely low in Las Vegas, playing the Rebels will take courage, and the abundance of points will be plentiful.

Why not bet the Rebels: As alluded to above, UNLV will be a terrible team. The Rebels hired a local high school coach that brings a lot of hope, but he has no collegiate coaching experience. There’s a major rebuilding project ahead for the UNLV program, and in its current situation, the Rebels are a team to avoid at all costs.

Season win total pick: Under 2

**Udog** · 08-13-2015, 10:30 PM

MAC conference college football betting preview: Can NIU be dethroned?

Will Rogers breaks down the season win totals and conference champion odds for the Mid-American Conference, which has been won by the Northern Illinois Huskies four of the last five seasons. But there are a few teams knocking on the door to knock the Huskies off their perch.

Northern Illinois Huskies (2014: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +325
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois comes in not just as the defending MAC champions, but winners of the conference in four of the last five seasons. They bring back 14 starters from 2014, and quarterback Drew Hare returns after throwing for 18 TDs and just two picks in his first year as a starter.

Why not to bet the Huskies: Hare lacks the running ability of Jordan Lynch and Chandler Harnish before him, and the running game might not be as strong as it was last year. They will have to replace Cameron Stingily who led the team with 900 yards and 14 TDs last year. The offensive line is another story, as they only return two starters from last year's unit.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Toledo Rockets (2014: 9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +325
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Rockets: Kareem Hunt ran for 1631 yards and 18 TDs in 2014, and the star running back will be back for another season. They Rockets are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the ball, and they have the luxury of playing seven home games in 2015.

Why not to bet the Rockets: The biggest concern for this team will be a completely rebuilt offensive line that replaces five starters from a year ago. The non-conference schedule isn't going to be a cakewalk, with a neutral site game versus Arkansas in Week 2, and a home game against Iowa State the following week.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Bowling Green Falcons (2014: 8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +425
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Falcons: This team comes into the 2015 season with almost all of it's key contributors on offense back from a 2014 season that saw them win a second straight MAC East title. Matt Johnson is back at quarterback after suffering a season ending injury in Week 1 last year. Johnson threw for 393 yards and five TDs in the 2013 MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois.

Why not to bet the Falcons: The outlook isn't as optimistic for the Falcons defense that allowed opponents to average more than 33 points on almost 500 yards per game in 2014. Seven starters need to be replaced, and head coach Dino Babers is rolling the dice with what will be a young and inexperienced defense.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Western Michigan Broncos (2014: 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +525
Season win total: 8

Why to bet the Broncos: This team won eight game in 2014, and it returns 16 starters, nine on offense. Zach Terrell threw for 3443 yards and 26 TDs in 2014, and he was named the MAC's Offensive Player of the Year. He'll have his top two targets back, including Corey Davis who led the MAC with 1,408 receiving yards and 86 receptions last year.

Why not to bet the Broncos: After winning eight games last year, expectations are high in 2015, perhaps too high. Head coach P.J. Fleck admits: "We probably won more games on paper than what kind of football team we actually had." The Broncos have a brutal non conference schedule that includes a week 1 game against Michigan State, and a road game at Ohio State a few weeks later.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Akron Zips (2014: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Zips: Akron is stacked on the defensive side of the ball, returning six starters from a unit that ranked first in the conference in points allowed last season, allowing opponents to average 23.1 points per game. They also bring in some high profile transfers, including a pair of former Ohio State players in Se'Von Pittman and Jamal Marcus.

Why not to bet the Zips: Akron ranked dead last in the MAC in passing efficiency last year, and third year quarterback Kyle Pohl completed just 55 percent of his passes and threw 18 interceptions in 12 games. The Zips will also be replacing their leading rusher and top two receivers from last year.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Ohio Bobcats (2014: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season win total: 5

Why to bet the Bobcats: Senior quarterback Derrius Vick returns after an injury plagued 2014 season that saw him throw for 1156 yards with eight TDs and four INTs. The offensive line returns all five starters, and running back A.J. Ouellette returns after running for 785 yards as a freshman (2nd highest total in team history).

Why not to bet the Bobcats: The biggest problem for the Bobcats might be their schedule, which features a couple tough road games at Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, and non-conference games against Marshall and Minnesota.

Season win total pick: Over 5

Massachusetts Minutemen (2014: 3-9 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 4.5

Why to bet the Minutemen: The 2015 squad returns 18 starters from last year, giving them plenty of experience on both sides of the ball. Blake Frohnapfel returns at quarterback for his senior year, and that's good news for an offense that ranked 1st in the conference in passing in 2014.

Why not to bet the Minutemen: After winning a total of five games over the last three seasons, it might be asking a bit too much for this team to win five games this year. The defense will have to come a long way after allowing opponents to average 33 points per game in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

Ball State Cardinals (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2300
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Cardinals: Ball State finished last season strong winning four of it's final six games. They bring back 17 starters from that squad, and they have an abundance of talent and depth at the wide receiver position.

Why not to bet the Cardinals: Pete Lembo will roll the dice with second year quarterback Jack Milas who completed just 55 percent of his passes last year. “I’m not going to say he has arrived by any means,” Lembo says, “but he’s more comfortable out there.”

Season win total pick: Under 7

Kent State Golden Flashes (2014: 2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 4.5

Why to bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State won the MAC Championship in 2012 behind a punishing rushing attack that featured Dri Archer (now with the Pittsburgh Steelers), and 250lb tailback Trayion Durham. Injuries have prevented Durham from reaching his full potential the last two seasons, but if he can stay healthy he should have a breakout season in 2015.

Why not to bet the Golden Flashes: Returning 11 starters on defense sounds like good news, but keeping in mind that this unit allowed opponents to average 29 points and 430 yards per game last year, it's fair to say that there is plenty of work to do.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5

Central Michigan Chippewas (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Chippewas: They are in good shape with Cooper Rush returning at quarterback for a third season. Rush threw for a record seven TDs in last year's blowout win over Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl.

Why not to bet the Chippewas: Success won't come easy for new head coach John Bonamego, as the Chippewas have a brutal schedule to look forward to. They will be lucky to avoid losing four of their first five games, as they host Oklahoma State in Week 1, before facing Syracuse and Michigan state on the road over the next three weeks. They begin conference play with a home game against the defending champion Huskies.

Season win total pick: Over 4

Buffalo Bulls (2014: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5.5

Why to bet the Bulls: Joe Licata will return at quarterback for the Bulls, and he's thrown a school record 60 TD passes over the last three seasons. He'll be handing the ball off to another talented senior in tailback Anthone Taylor, who ran for 1,403 yards last year (second most in school history).

Why not to bet the Bulls: This team will be thin on the defensive side of the ball with just three starters returning from 2014. Buffalo is also taking a huge gamble on a new head coach coming out of Division III, with no FBS experience.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5

Miami-Ohio Redhawks (2014: 2-10 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +17500
Season win total: 4

Why to bet the Redhawks: The strength of this team is in it's defense, which returns four starters on the line, and there is plenty of experience in the defensive backfield. Opening an indoor practice facility is also a positive step for a program that appears to be on the rise.

Why not to bet on the Redhawks: The offense is a mess, as their most experienced quarterback will suit up at defensive end (Austin Gearing), while Gus Ragland and Drew Kummer battle it out for the starting job. It's a similar story at running back and wide receiver with a lack of returning talent leaving holes to be filled by freshman.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Eastern Michigan Eagles (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +30000
Season win total: 1.5

Why to bet the Eagles: They will have a talented young quarterback in Reginald Bell, a former state track champion at California. He ran for 202 yards and three TDs in a win over Buffalo in October of last year, and finished the season strong with nine TD passes over the last seven weeks.

Why not to bet the Eagles: Last year's team ranked among the worst in the nation on defense, allowing over 40 points and nearly 500 yards per game. They return seven defensive starters, so there is a chance that they may improve, but it likely won't be enough to make this team competitive in the MAC.

Season win total pick: Over 1.5

**Udog** · 08-17-2015, 07:48 AM

SEC conference college football betting preview: Surprise, surprise, Alabama is the team to beat

Will Rogers breaks down the SEC giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning the toughest conference in college football and is it any surprise that Alabama tops the list of contenders.

Alabama Crimson Tide (2014: 12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +300
Season win total: 9.5

Why to bet the Crimson Tide: Nick Saban's squad always has one of the top recruiting classes, and they come into the 2015 season with another talented group of freshman. The strength of this team is in it's defense, returning eight starters from 2014. The defensive line is as good as it's ever been, and Reggie Ragland turned down the NFL to play another year after recording 95 tackles last season.

Why not to bet the Crimson Tide: There was no money to be made backing Alabama last season, as they failed to cover in nine of their 14 games. They will likely continue to be overrated by the bookmakers this season, and replacing their starting quarterback, top wide receiver and leading rusher is going to be a daunting task. Whoever the new quarterback is will be thrown right into the fire with a neutral site game against Wisconsin in Week 1.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Georgia Bulldogs (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +450
Season win total: 9

Why to bet the Bulldogs: Nick Chubb emerged as one of the most talented running backs in the SEC, running for 1547 yards as a freshman in 2014. He's considered a true contender for the Heisman this year, behind a skilled offensive line that returns four starters.

Why not to bet the Bulldogs: There are plenty of question marks in the passing game, with a new quarterback and a lack of experience at wide receiver. It could take some time for things to come together under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
Season win total pick: Over 9

Auburn Tigers (2014: 8-5 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +475
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Tigers: The arrival of new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has the Tigers extremely optimistic about their defense in 2015. He's getting eight starters back from last season's depth chart, including the top three tacklers: safety Jonathan Ford and linebackers Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost.

Why not to bet the Tigers: The Tigers only have four starters returning on offense, and backup Jeremy Johnson will take over for Nick Marshall at quarterback. They won't have a lot of time to figure things out, as they travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU in mid September in their first game in conference play.

Season win total: Under 8.5

LSU Tigers (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +775
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Tigers: Leonard Fournette appears to be primed for a big season, and the former five star recruit comes in bigger and stronger than he's ever been according to Les Miles. The Tigers return eight starters on both sides of the ball, and they should have one of the best secondaries in the nation again in 2015.

Why not to bet the Tigers: Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris were both brutal at quarterback last season, and neither has shown significant signs of improvement heading into 2015. The duo managed to throw for more than 150 yards just once during conference play last season, and that was a loss to Mississippi State.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Mississippi Rebels (2014: 9-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +850
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Rebels: Mississippi returns nine starters on offense, and eight starters on a defensive unit that finished the 2014 season ranked 1st in the nation allowing an average of just 16 points per game. All five starters return on the offensive line, and that will make life easier for a team breaking in a new quarterback.

Why not to bet the Rebels: They beat Alabama last year, but that was in Oxford. They will have to travel to Tuscaloosa to play the Crimson Tide this year, and Alabama hasn't lost at home since 2012. They also have tough road games at Auburn and Florida.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Arkansas Razorbacks (2014: 7-6 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +950
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Razorbacks: Brandon Allen is back at quarterback for his third season as a starter, the Razorbacks first three-year starter in over a decade. He threw for 2125 yards with 20 TDs and just five picks in 2014. He'll have plenty of help in the backfield with a pair of 1000 yard rushers in Jonathan Williams
and Alex Collins.

Why not to bet the Razorbacks: They haven't won in conference play on the road since October of 2012, and they have a tough schedule this season with road games against Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Tennessee Volunteers (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1100
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Vols: Tennessee returns an SEC best 10 starters on offense in 2015, and eight starters on defense. Expectations are sky high in Knoxville after a blowout win over Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl. Josh Dobbs threw for 1206 yards and nine TDs in six starts last year, and he's expected to take over as the Vols quarterback of the future.

Why not to bet the Vols: It's important to keep things in perspective, and beating up on a below average BIG10 team in a bowl game is hardly enough reason to expect a young team to compete with the elite teams in the SEC.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Missouri Tigers (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +1800
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Tigers: Maty Mauk returns at quarterback, and he finished last season strong, winning five of six games and throwing for nine TDs and just two INTs. Russell Hansbrough ran for 1084 yards and 10 TDs last year, and he should be primed for a big season behind an experienced offensive line that returns five starters.

Why not to bet the Tigers: They lose all three starters at wide receiver for the second consecutive season, and that could make life difficult for Maty Mauk. They also lost a lot of talent on defense, and it could be asking too much for young players to fill those holes.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Texas A&M Aggies (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the the conference: +2300
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Aggies: Kyle Allen took over at quarterback in the middle of last season, and he would make an impact early on. He threw for 277 yards with four TDs and one INT in an upset win over the Auburn Tigers on November 8. This team won't have much trouble scoring points with Allen throwing to Speedy Noil and Josh Reynolds.

Why not to bet the Aggies: The Aggies owned one of the SEC's worst defenses last year, allowing an average of over 28 points per game. They brought in John Chavis who comes over from LSU to be the new defensive coordinator, but he's going to struggle to turn things around in just one season.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Florida Gators (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3300
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Gators: The offense sputtered under Will Muschamp, but Gator fans hope new head coach Jim McElwain will be able to get this team scoring again. If you look at what he did at Colorado State last season, it suggests he could be the right man for the job.

Why not to bet the Gators: Muschamp really made a mess of this team, and that leaves McElwain coming into a tough situation. They will have an inexperienced offensive line that could limit their success in the running game, ultimately putting more pressure on the passing game.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Bulldogs: Dak Prescott had a phenomenal season for Mississippi State last year, throwing for 3449 yards with 27 TDs and 11 INTs. He also ran for just shy of 1000 yards and 13 touchdowns. He was in the running for the Heisman Trophy for most of the season, and he's one of the favorites heading into 2015.

Why not to bet the Bulldogs: Gone is leading rusher Josh Robinson, along with several key offensive linemen. They must identify new starters at tackle, guard and find a new center. They also lost eight starters on a defense that ranked dead last in the conference against the pass.

Season win total: Under 7

South Carolina Gamecocks (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +4000
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Gamecocks: The Gamecocks might have the best wide receiver in the SEC in Pharoh Cooper who caught 69 passes for 1,136 yards in 2014. Head coach Steve Spurrier feels confident he'll have the right man at quarterback: ““Connor Mitch is tremendously improved from when he first got here,” Spurrier says. “He seems to have a little bit more confidence and knows what to do now. I think he’s ready to take some giant steps.”

Why not to bet the Gamecocks: South Carolina's defense ranked 92nd nationally allowing an average of 30.4 points per game last year. They recorded just 14 sacks, and ranked 121st in the country in tackles for a loss. New defensive coordinator Jon Hoke has his work cut out for him.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Kentucky Wildcats (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +10500
Season win total: 6

Why to bet the Wildcats: They have plenty of returning talent with seven returning starters on both offense and defense. They will have a bigger, more experienced and more physically imposing offensive line than they've had in recent years. Three straight Top 40 recruiting classes should start to pay dividends for head coach Mark Stoops in 2015.

Why not to bet the Wildcats: They finished last season with six straight losses after a 5-1 start. It won't be easy to get off to such a good start this season, as they face South Carolina, Florida and Missouri in the month of September.

Season win total pick: Under 6

Vanderbilt Commodores (3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win the conference: +50000
Season win total: 3

Why to bet the Commodores: If you want something done right, you do it yourself. That seems to be the train of thought for Commodores head coach Derek Mason, who fired his defensive coordinator, and will assume the duties himself in 2015. “I am loving it,” he said during the spring. “I don’t know why I ever gave it up. Probably best decision I have made is to come back and run the defense.”

Why not to bet the Commodores: They ranked last in the SEC in total offense and scoring offense in 2014, and they failed to win a game against a conference opponent. They may well be better than they were last year, but that might not be enough to translate into wins in the toughest conference in the country.

Season win total pick: Over 3

**BettorsChat** · 08-17-2015, 04:52 PM

a lot of good info!

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