The Bum's 2015 College Conference Preview News,Notes,All You Need To Know !

[StarDust Bum]

2015 Golden Nugget GOY Odds 9-15

June 26, 2015

Odds Subject to Change - $1,000 Limits


WEEK 9

Date Away Home

Thursday, Oct. 29 Oregon (-5) Arizona State

Thursday, Oct. 29 West Virginia TCU (-20)

Saturday, Oct. 31 Boise State (-28.5) UNLV

Saturday, Oct. 31 Central Florida Cincinnati (-6)

Saturday, Oct. 31 Georgia Tech (-10) Virginia

Saturday, Oct. 31 Ole Miss Auburn (-4)

Saturday, Oct. 31 (Jacksonville, FL) Florida Georgia (-12)

Saturday, Oct. 31 South Carolina Texas A&M (-10)

Saturday, Oct. 31 Oregon State Utah (-16)


WEEK 10

Date Away Home

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 Northern Illinois Toledo (-3)

Thursday, Nov. 5 Mississippi State Missouri (-6)

Thursday, Nov. 5 Baylor (-12) Kansas State

Saturday, Nov. 7 LSU Alabama (-9)

Saturday, Nov. 7 Arkansas Ole Miss (-1)

Saturday, Nov. 7 Auburn (-1.5) Texas A&M

Saturday, Nov. 7 TCU (-11) Oklahoma State

Saturday, Nov. 7 Michigan State (-6) Nebraska

Saturday, Nov. 7 Florida State Clemson (-2)

Saturday, Nov. 7 Virginia Miami, Fla. (-6.5)

Saturday, Nov. 7 Notre Dame (-3) Pittsburgh

Saturday, Nov. 7 Arizona USC (-7.5)


WEEK 11

Date Away Home

Thursday, Nov. 12 Virginia Tech Georgia Tech (-9.5)

Friday, Nov. 13 USC (-12) Colorado

Saturday, Nov. 14 Arkansas LSU (-1.5)

Saturday, Nov. 14 Utah Arizona (-3)

Saturday, Nov. 14 Oregon Stanford (PK)

Saturday, Nov. 14 Alabama (-9) Mississippi State

Saturday, Nov. 14 Florida South Carolina (-2.5)

Saturday, Nov. 14 Oklahoma Baylor (-13)

Saturday, Nov. 14 BYU Missouri (-12)


WEEK 12

Date Away Home

Saturday, Nov. 21 San Diego State (-16) UNLV

Saturday, Nov. 21 LSU Ole Miss (PK)

Saturday, Nov. 21 Fresno State BYU (-18)

Saturday, Nov. 21 TCU (-5) Oklahoma

Saturday, Nov. 21 Baylor (-10) Oklahoma State

Saturday, Nov. 21 Michigan State Ohio State (-14)

Saturday, Nov. 21 Michigan Penn State (-4.5)

Saturday, Nov. 21 Mississippi State Arkansas (-10)

Saturday, Nov. 21 Tennessee Missouri (-2.5)

Saturday, Nov. 21 Georgia Tech (-6) Miami, Fla.

Saturday, Nov. 21 Arizona Arizona State (-3)

Saturday, Nov. 21 UCLA -(1) Utah

Saturday, Nov. 21 California Stanford (-13)


WEEK 13

Date Away Home

Friday, Nov. 27 Baylor Colorado (-6)

Friday, Nov. 27 Oregon State Oregon (-22.5)

Friday, Nov. 27 Washington State Washington (-4.5)

Friday, Nov. 27 Iowa Nebraska (-7)

Friday, Nov. 27 Texas A&M LSU (-7.5)

Saturday, Nov. 28 Kansas State (-24) Kansas

Saturday, Nov. 28 Oklahoma (-3) Oklahoma State

Saturday, Nov. 28 BYU Utah State (PK)

Saturday, Nov. 28 Ohio State (-16) Michigan

Saturday, Nov. 28 Penn State Michigan State (-12 )

Saturday, Nov. 28 UCLA USC (-3)

Saturday, Nov. 28 Colorado Utah (-13.5)

Saturday, Nov. 28 Notre Dame Stanford (-3)

Saturday, Nov. 28 North Carolina NC State (-6)

Saturday, Nov. 28 Virginia Tech (-4) Virginia

Saturday, Nov. 28 Missouri Arkansas (-7)

Saturday, Nov. 28 Alabama (-3.5) Auburn

Saturday, Nov. 28 Florida State (-4) Florida

Saturday, Nov. 28 Georgia (-1) Georgia Tech

Saturday, Nov. 28 Louisville (-2.5) Kentucky

Saturday, Nov. 28 Ole Miss (-2) Mississippi

Saturday, Nov. 28 Clemson (-3) South Carolina

Saturday, Nov. 28 Vanderbilt Tennessee (-17)


WEEK 14

Date Away Home

Saturday, Dec. 5 Texas Baylor (-18)

Saturday, Dec. 5 West Virginia Kansas State (-5)


WEEK 15

Date Away Home

Saturday, Dec. 12 (Philadelphia, PA) Navy (-13) Army

[StarDust Bum]

2015 Conference USA Preview

June 28, 2015

C-USA 2015 Conference USA Football Preview

Bizarre World Of The Conference USA

In December last year UAB president Ray Watts announced that he shutting down the football program, stirring a high level of hatred toward the school's administration.

Seven months later Watts asked for and received a mulligan when school boosters agreed to support the program. As a result the Blazers will re-join the C-USA next season after a one-year hiatus.

Through it all the league will operate with 13 teams for the 2015 season, with a large portion of UAB players and coaches now scattered among opposing conference foe rosters this campaign.

Bowling For Dollars

C-USA sent five teams to bowl games in 2014. The league finished 4-1 in bowls, giving the league a 15-6 SU and 13-7-1 ATS mark the past four seasons in postseason play.

No other FBS conference owns a higher bowl win percentage than the C-USA the last four years.

Globetrotters

Speaking of non-conference play, stepping outside the conference, members will play 22 regular season games against foes from the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the SEC.

In head-to-head games against these three super conferences, the CUSA stands 47-236 SU and 124-151-5 ATS since the inception the conference, including a super-scary 2-131 SU and 44-91-2 ATS in games in which they fail to score 17 points.

Against all other non-conference foes the loop stands 392-361 SU overall.

Turnover Forcing Machines

Two years ago C-USA produced three of the top five teams in the FBS in forcing turnovers in 2013 with Tulane, North Texas and Middle Tennessee State finishing tied for 2nd, 4th and tied for 5th respectively.

It was more of the same last season when Louisiana Tech led the nation in turnovers gained (42), while Florida International ranked 4th (33).

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


CHARLOTTE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 9/4, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TENDER FOOTS

Back in the day when a team’s schedule included the likes of Charlotte, Presbyterian and UTSA, they were either Kansas State or a Division-II school. Nowadays, teams of this ilk are everywhere, landing in conferences simply for the newfound dollars. The newest spring chicken, the 49ers, makes their FBS debut, fast-tracking from a program that launched as an FCS Independent in 2013 into the C-USA in 2015. Head coach Brad Lambert and his 10-man staff have 115 years of collegiate coaching experience. Aside from 17 returning starters, the Niners also have a handful of transfers who sat out last year, plus three potential starters who missed 2014 with injuries.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

In the 49ers’ first two seasons, freshmen and sophomores made up an average 15.55 of the 22 starting positions.



FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/3, 32 Lettermen)

Tean Theme: COME ON, GET HAPPY

Year One of the Charlie Partridge era saw the Owls regress on both sides of the ball. The good news is Partridge welcomes the second-best recruiting class in C-USA to the family, including six 3-star newcomers. For any progress to happen, though, the former defensive line assistant for Bret Bielema at Arkansas and Wisconsin will need to address FAU’s slippage against the run last year (-60 RYPG and -1.2 DYPR). The offense is keyed by double-threat QB Jaquez Johnson who tossed for 2,215 and rushed for 599 yards, leading the team both in the air and on the ground – making him the lead singer of this Partridge family.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The underdog was 10-0 ATS in the Owls final ten games last season.



FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 8/3, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: PUSHING BACK

There were supposed to be giant strides forward for the Golden Panthers last season. It was Ron Turner’s third year on the sidelines, with 17 returning starters and a pair of cupcakes to open the campaign. And then as fast as you can say Bethune-Cookman, it all fell apart in a stunning season-opening home loss to the Wildcats. A win over Wagner the following week proved to be the only game in which the Panthers would out yard an opponent all season (now just 2-22 ‘In The Stats’ in games under Turner). For Turner’s sake, here’s hoping a behemoth OL will push a now suddenly experienced young group back to the glory days of 2011.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Panthers were the nation’s most improved scoring offense in 2014, going from 9.8 to 23.0 PPG last season, a 134.7% change.


LOUISIANA TECH (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 6/3, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: SKIP FORWARD

After a dismal 4-8 losing season in 2013, the Bulldogs bounced back with a 9-win bowl season last year. The mission this year will be to repeat the feat and become the first La Tech squad to make it to back-to-back bowl games since 1977-78. They’ll need to do it without Manny Diaz (former Texas DC), who was lured away by Mississippi State in the offseason. The good news is QB Jeff Driskel, former starter at Florida, transfers in. Handing the ball to star RB Kenneth Dixon – owner of the school’s rushing and scoring records – and tossing to impact WRs Trent Taylor and Paul Turner should find Skip Holtz going back to the future in 2015.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Bulldogs led the nation in points off turnovers (172) last season.


MARSHALL (Offense - 6/3, Defense – 5/1, 56 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MARSHALL LAW

So where does the Herd go from here? After pulverizing C-USA foes last year, Marshall faces huge losses at key positions in 2015, starting with the record-setting combination of QB Rakeem Cato and WR Tommy Shuler. Also gone are all-conference center Chris Japerse, the team’s top three defensive linemen and three of its four top linebackers. Thank goodness head coach Doc Holliday has recruited his you-know-what off as a bevy of 3 and 4-star talent steps to the forefront, including 3 QBs and 10 wide receivers. And the Herd is absolutely loaded at RB with a trio of backs who rushed for 3,111 yards last year returning to Huntington. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Marshall will take on the easiest schedule of all FBS teams in 2014 with foes a combined 54-89 last season.


MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 8/3, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MORE STOCK OPTIONS

Last year MTSU won six games but was left at the altar by the bowl committee. If you think it doesn’t register with head coach Rick Stockstill then think again. He‘s appeared in 19 bowl games as a player and a coach in his career, so rest assured he’ll have this squad motivated to the max to make it 20. “We had a really good offseason... I really liked the leadership that surfaced,” says Stockstill. The offense is in good hands with his top two QB’s returning, and 87 games worth of experience from a deep running back corps. The two-deep ‘D’ boasts five seniors at both the linebacker and secondary positions. Expect a race to the wire in the C-USA East.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Blue Raiders are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in conference road openers the past six seasons.


NORTH TEXAS (Offense - *5/1, Defense – 6/2, 37 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BACK FROM REALITY

Yes, it was nice while it lasted. After winning nine games in 2013, things quickly turned lean for the Mean Green last season. It was to be expected. After all, you don’t go from an 8-time loser to winning a bowl game and expect to win again when you lose your starting quarterback, rusher, two wide receivers, tight end, six of your defensive front seven, your best defensive back and a superstar return man. Especially behind a defense that smelled to hell and back on the highway where they went 0-6 SU and ATS, and were out yarded 148 YPG last year. Hey at least there is always Apogee Stadium.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

After going 1-16 the three previous seasons, UNT is 16-7 at Apogee Stadium the past five seasons under Dan McCarney.

OLD DOMINION (Offense – 8/3, Defense – 4/1, 36 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: OUT OF HEINICKE

It was a new day at Old Dominion last year when the Monarchs made their initial foray into FBS waters. Head coach Bobby Wilder has been with ODU since its inception, building the program from the ground up, winning 52 games since its rebirth in 2009. The Monarchs started 3-0 and finished 3-1 last season to salvage a 6-6 season. They will be put to the test this year, however, as four-year starting QB Taylor Heinicke – a Walter Payton award winner and 15,000 yard passer – is gone. So too is ODU’s all-conference center, and seven starters on defense (four from the front seven). Life before Heinicke was good. It should remain status quo under Wilder.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Old Dominion has never suffered a losing season under head coach Bobby Wilder.


RICE (Offense - *6/3, Defense – 4/2, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CLICK IN NOVEMBER...BOWL IN DECEMBER

The formula for David Bailiff has been a simple one: concentrate on winning games in November and be rewarded in December. And it’s worked. His Owls stand 22-10 SU and 20-12 ATS in regular season games from November out, which coincides with a 3-1 SUATS mark in four December bowl games. Last year’s team made it three straight bowl appearances for the first time in school history. Granted, Rice crackled and was popped by quality teams last season (0-4 SU versus .600 or better foes) but they still became a history-making squad in the process. With a loaded backfield returning intact, the Owls are looking forward to another November to remember.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Last year marked the first time since 1948-50 that the Owls have had three winning seasons is a row.


SOUTHERN MISS (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 4/2, 59 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CLEARING UP A BAD COMPLEXION

Talk about falling off the map. After sporting a winning record every year from 1994 to 2011 – reaching its crescendo when USM captured the C-USA title in 2011 – then-coach Larry Fedora saw the handwriting on the wall and bailed. The not-so-Golden Eagles stunningly went 1-23 during 2012-13 (they ‘improved’ to 3-9 in 2014). So what exactly has happened to a program that reeled off 18 winning seasons in a row and now swims with the fishes at the bottom of Lake Rotten? We’ll learn a lot more this year, especially after watching 22 players make their Division-1 debut last season (third most in the nation). Thank goodness for Clearasil.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Golden Eagles are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.


UTEP (Offense – 6/4, Defense – 5/3, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NO MINER ACCIDENT

It was no accident that the Miners suddenly improved leaps and bounds last football season, going from a 2-win squad to a bowler. After fighting through inexperience, injuries and depth issues in 2013, Sean Kugler’s troops parlayed a year of healing and force-feeding to land a bowl bid. However, UTEP was pushed around mightily by fellow bowl teams in the process – going 0-5 SU while losing the stats by an average of 115 YPG. This season they will face the second softest schedule in the land, with this year’s foes owning a 56-91 combined overall record in 2014 – which perhaps may find them favored in games they should not be. You know what to do.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Miners are 6-43-1 SU and 12-36-1 ATS in the last 50 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.


UTSA (Offense – 2/1, Defense – 4/0, 32 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GONE WITH THE WIND

After leading UTSA to 23 wins in its first four seasons, two-time National Coach of the Year Larry Coker is not sleeping well these nights. Like Mother Hubbard, he finds the cupboard completely bare thin 2015. Senior Day ran overtime at UTSA last year as no less than 38 seniors dotted the roster. And like the Texas wind, they’re gone. Now Coker must rebuild for the first time ever with this fledgling program. Thankfully, 13 early enrollees join 25 signees to fill the 38 slots of departed seniors. But even with eleven 3-star players, including former Michigan QB Russell Bellomy and Oklahoma WR Dannon Cavil, Coker might ponder retirement sooner than expected.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Coker is 11-1-1 ATS in his career as a dog versus greater-than .750 opponents.



WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense - *7/3, Defense – 9/4, 53 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: KING OF THE HILL

What a year it was. In 2014 the Hilltoppers broke or tied 50 individual and team records, while also becoming the first FBS team with a 4,500-yard passer (Brandon Doughty) and a 1,500-yard rusher (Leon Allen). Their 6,672 total yards were also the most in FBS history (532 more than the 2011 RGIII-led Baylor Bears). Not that they need any incentive: Doughty and Allen were unbelievably relegated to all-CUSA 2nd team status by a leading football publication, and they’re back for more in 2015. Through it all, headman Jeff Brohm was the only first-year coach in the nation to guide his team to a bowl win last season. What a year it was, indeed.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

WKU QB Brandon Doughty has not thrown an interception at home since Oct 15, 2013 – a span of 388 passing attempts.

[StarDust Bum]

Analyzing Golden Nugget Openers

July 1, 2015


The Golden Nugget released its spreads for 166 college football Games of the Year this past Friday. The Nugget is annually the first betting shop in Las Vegas to posts these lines, limiting gamblers to six plays with a maximum bet of 'a dime' ($1,000 in gambling vernacular) before requiring them to go to the back of the line.

I found it interesting that Alabama clearly isn't getting the respect it has been given by oddsmakers over the last few years. My personal numbers for the Crimson Tide are much richer than those sent out by The Nugget for several games. For instance, I made Nick Saban's team a 13-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss, but TGN opened the Tide as a 9.5-point home 'chalk' to the Rebels.

I also feel like Auburn isn't getting the respect it deserves coming into 2015. Nick Marshall is gone, but Jeremy Johnson might end up being an upgrade. Johnson, a true junior who has a 9/2 career touchdown-to-interception ratio, will undoubtedly bring improvement to the Tigers' aerial attack. Although he doesn't possess the running skills of Marshall, he has incredible size and will be tough for would-be sackers to bring down.

I'll even go a step further with Johnson. This is certainly a strong statement and perhaps a bit of a reach, but I believe he's capable of having a 2010 Cam Newton type of season. Johnson has one of the country's best play-callers in Gus Malzahn and perhaps the SEC's premier down-the-field threat in wide receiver Duke Williams.

I feel like Arkansas and Mississippi St. are being given too much respect, especially the Bulldogs. Dan Mullen's team returns only seven total starters. Granted, one of those is Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott, but he won't have the benefit of a veteran offensive line or the services of dynamic running back Josh Robinson, who bolted for the NFL a year early after enjoying a monster 2014 campaign.

If Dan Mullen can keep Mississippi St. out of the SEC West cellar (not exactly the most shameful place to reside, by the way), he will have done an excellent coaching job in 2015. Of the 166 games posted, my top play is Auburn as an eight-point home favorite to the Bulldogs. This is a huge revenge game for AU after getting blasted in Starkville last year. I made the Tigers 15-point favorites in that spot and will be completely stunned if they aren't double-digit 'chalk' vs. MSU.

Let's go back to Arkansas, which had one of the best 7-6 campaigns you'll ever witness in 2014. Bret Beliema's squad improved by four games after Year 1 netted an abysmal 3-9 mark. However, those seven wins don't do justice to how much the Razorbacks improved. They easily could've won 10 games, losing once in overtime (vs. Texas A&M) and by one (to Alabama due to a missed PAT). Beliema's bunch also allowed second-half leads to get away at Mississippi St. and at Missouri.

Arkansas somehow opened as a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Auburn. This turned out to be one of three games TGN ended up moving by five points. Before Friday's betting action was completed, the Razorbacks were favored by just 1.5 points.

Arkansas will have two weeks to prepare for Auburn, but I feel like that advantage is negated to some extent because AU plays at Kentucky the previous Thursday. Although the Tigers won't have two full weeks to prep for the Hogs, they will have two extra days of rest themselves. My line for AU-Arky is pick 'em.

Arkansas was also involved in another game moved five points by TGN, which opened the Razorbacks as 6.5-point favorites for their annual showdown against Texas A&M at Jerry World in Arlington. The Aggies rallied from a 28-14 second-half deficit to force overtime and beat the Hogs last year. I made Arkansas a 3.5-point fave in this matchup and after lots of action on Kevin Sumlin's squad, TGN eventually moved the number down to 1.5.

The other game featuring a five-point move was for Boise St. at BYU. The Broncos opened as six-point road favorites, but they are now one-point 'chalk.'

Sticking with BSU, the enormous -270 favorite to win the Mountain West Conference at 5Dimes, it opened as a 13-point home favorite for its opener against Washington and former coach Chris Petersen. But the action came fast on the Huskies, who are down to 8.5-point road underdogs for their trip to the smurf turf.

In its first year under Bryan Harsin, Boise St. compiled a 12-2 straight-up record and an 8-6 against-the-spread ledger. The Broncos beat BYU by a 55-30 count at home and ended the season on a nine-game winning streak, including a 38-30 triumph over Arizona as three-point underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl.

BSU now has three Fiesta Bowl wins on its school history's resume. Don't be shocked if it is in another New Year's Day Bowl in 2015, assuming it doesn't work its way into the College Football Playoff. Harsin's team returns nine starters on offense and eight on defense, and that doesn't count senior DE Tyler Horn, who was a returning starter in 2014 but tore his ACL in a season-opening loss to Ole Miss.

In Week 4, BSU ventures to the East Coast for a Friday Night showdown at Virginia. TGN opened the Broncos as nine-point favorites against the Cavaliers. They are also favored at Colorado St. (opened -12, now -10.5), at Utah St. (opened -9.5, now -6) and at UNLV (-28.5). If form holds for the Week 2 showdown in Provo against the Cougars, BSU will almost certainly be favored in every game this year.

Ohio St. and TCU join Boise St. as the only teams (beyond those that have just one lined game) that are favored in every contest. The Buckeyes are actually double-digit 'chalk' in each game, favored by 12.5 or more every time. They are -16 at Va. Tech, -19 vs. Penn St., -12.5 vs. Michigan St. and -13 at Michigan. The number for the game against the Spartans is too rich. In fact, 5Dimes has Urban Meyer's squad favored by only seven.

TCU returns 15 total starters (10 offense, 5 defense) from a 12-1 team that suffered its lone loss by a 61-58 score at Baylor. The Horned Frogs blew a 21-point four-quarter lead in Waco, but they responded by winning their last eight games, including three blowouts of ranked teams like the 42-3 shellacking of Ole Miss administered at the Ga. Dome.

TGN opened Gary Patterson's squad as a double-digit favorite in six of its eight games. TCU is favored by five at Oklahoma and by six vs. Baylor.

Let's go back to Alabama, which has been favored in 68 consecutive games. That streak is in jeopardy for an Oct. 3 game at Georgia where TGN has it as a pick 'em. The Tide was a single-digit fave in six games last season, limping to a 2-4 spread record with a pair of outright defeats. In its nine listed games this year, 'Bama opened a double-digit favorite only twice. The Tide started -10 for both its opener vs. Wisconsin and its home game against Tennessee. The seven other opening numbers were single digits.

That's a huge adjustment from previous Alabama teams. I get the uncertainty with so many key offensive parts like Amari Cooper and T.J. Yeldon gone, but I will give Saban the benefit of the doubt until I see reasons to think the Tide is doomed for a significant drop-off in 2015.

Only three starters on offense and seven on defense are back. The quarterback position is a question mark, as is the offensive line for the first time in a long time. Alabama might go with redshirt freshman David Cornwell over Jacob Coker in the QB competition. These are all legit concerns

But hasn't Saban proven time and again that he'll have his team ready to perform at an elite level? Derrick Henry is going to have a monster season. The defense will be nasty yet again. Saban will get things figured out on the o-line. The only way I can see Alabama winning nine games or fewer is if the QB situation becomes an unmitigated disaster. Otherwise, this will again be a team that goes into the Iron Bowl with a shot at getting to the CFP.

Speaking of the Auburn-Alabama battle, that number opened at -3.5 in favor of the Tide. However, the line is now -2.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Prescott leads SEC QB race

SEC QB Rankings

At this time last year, the discussion of SEC quarterbacks centered around the lack of experience for so many teams. Only four QBs who started eight games or more in 2013 were returning, including Mississippi St.'s Dak Prescott, Arkansas's Brandon Allen, Ole Miss's Bo Wallace and Auburn's Nick Marshall.

There were other teams that felt decent about their QB situations because of prior experience, including Florida (Jeff Driskel), South Carolina (Dylan Thompson), Georgia (Hutson Mason) and Missouri (Maty Mauk). However, the Gamecocks, Bulldogs and Tigers had arguably lost their best QBs ever in Connor Shaw, Aaron Murray and James Franklin, while Driskel was coming off a broken leg.

Due to those circumstances, I felt 2014 was the most difficult year to predict the SEC in a long time. In fact, I only had one gambling play that I was confident in and that was 'over' 7.5 wins for Mississippi St. I did call for Alabama to win the SEC, but only because it drew Auburn at home and had a decidedly easier schedule compared to that of AU and LSU.

As it turned out, Mississippi St. won its first nine games and had one of its best teams in school history. Alabama shook off a loss in Oxford and a double-digit second-half deficit to Auburn and won the SEC by clubbing Missouri, 42-13. Prescott, Allen, Wallace and Marshall had banner seasons, while Thompson was brilliant for Steve Spurrier and Mauk was very solid with the exception of an odd October slump.

On the flip side, Driskel was horrible while former UF signal callers Tyler Murphy and Jacoby Brissett had monster seasons at Boston College and N.C. St., respectively. Driskel's woes led to Will Muschamp's dismissal and he has transferred and will start at La. Tech this year. Mason had good numbers (21/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio), but UGA had disappointing setbacks to South Carolina and Florida that prevented it from winning the East.

Looking to 2015, there's a lot of turnover at the QB position. Once again, there are only four full-time starters returning in Prescott, Mauk, Allen (Arkansas) and Kentucky's Patrick Towles.

There are other part-time starters coming back, including Vandy's Johnny McCrary (five starts), UF's Treon Harris (six), Texas A&M's Kyle Allen (five) and Tennessee's Josh Dobbs (five). But Harris was seemingly beaten out by Will Grier in the spring, although new UF coach Jim McElwain has insisted that no decision will be made until late August. McCrary isn't a given to be Vandy's starter, either.

Let's break down my SEC quarterback rankings...

1) Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) - I feel comfortable ranking Prescott here, but I do want to be clear on a few things. First of all, the biggest sucker bet out there this summer is for him to win the Heisman. That's just not going to happen, mainly because the Bulldogs will be fortunate if they can win seven regular-season games. Prescott isn't going to produce the numbers he had in a sensational 2014 campaign. A veteran offensive line with 114 career starts and consisting of four-year starting center Dillon Day and first-team All-SEC OG Ben Beckwith, is mostly gone. Dynamic RB Josh Robinson decided to turn pro early, while veteran WRs Jameon Lewis and Malcolm Johnson have also departed. Prescott's elusiveness will mask some of the o-line issues, as will Dan Mullen's play-calling, and he'll have another stellar season. But the 2014 campaign was a dream year in Starkville, one that won't be duplicated in 2015. It won't be Prescott's fault, but his team's lack of success will eliminate him from Heisman contention.

2) Jeremy Johnson (Auburn) - Who, you ask? Jeremy Johnson, that's who! This guy is going to be great. If you haven't watched Auburn games at garbage time, you may not have laid eyes on Johnson yet. Well, here's a comparison for you: Cam Newton. That's right, there's a possibility that Johnson could produce a one-and-done type season that Newton enjoyed in 2010. He's built like a tank (6'5", 240) and can shake off sack attempts from the league's best defensive linemen. Johnson doesn't have Newton's speed, but his arm is probably stronger. He's accurate, too, as evidenced by completion percentages of 71% and 76%, albeit in limited playing time, in his first two seasons. Johnson has a 9/2 career TD-INT ratio. He has one of the nation's best WRs in Duke Johnson, and that tandem is poised for a breakout season. I'm not opposed to a very small wager on Johnson to win the Heisman (most odds I've seen are in the 23/1 neighborhood).

3) Josh Dobbs (Tennessee) - What took Butch Jones so long to turn to Dobbs? Granted, UT's strength of schedule is always weaker in November when it annually draws Vandy and Kentucky. Therefore, you can make a valid argument that Dobbs hasn't yet produced against the league's best defenses. But when he finally got his chance in 2014 after the Vols fell behind big to Alabama, he responded in a big way. Dobbs would start the last five games, leading UT to a 4-1 record and three offensive outburst of 45 points or more. Like Prescott, Dobbs has elite scrambling skills, rushing for 587 yards and eight TDs last year. He is surrounded by outstanding talent, including veteran wideouts Pig Howard, Von Pearson and Marquez North. Also, Dobbs has an excellent 1-2 punch of RBs in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. I'm confident Dobbs is poised to have a breakout year.

4) Brandon Allen (Arkansas) - Allen is what he is, which is to say very solid. As a sophomore in 2013, he injured his shoulder in late September. Allen demonstrated his toughness by playing through the injury, but he had to rest the shoulder during the week and his lack of practice reps clearly impacted his play on Saturdays for the worse. Finally healthy in 2015, Allen took care of the football and had his team in position to win 11 of its 13 games at crunch time. He posted a 20/5 TD-INT ratio and the Hogs improved by four wins. Allen lacks a big-time receiver to stretch the field, but the hope in Fayetteville is that juco transfer Dominique Reed can become a big-play threat. Allen has the benefit of a massive offensive line and two workhorse RBs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, both of whom eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark in 2014. With the SEC's best TE (Hunter Henry), Allen is poised for another excellent season to close out his collegiate career.

5) Maty Mauk (Missouri) - If not for a brutal October slump that had gamblers perplexed, Mauk would probably rank higher on this list. He did an amazing job in 2013 when Franklin went down with an injury, guiding the Tigers to a 3-1 record in four starts while posting an 11/2 TD-INT ratio. Mauk picked up where he left off from 2013 last September, leading Missouri to a 3-0 start and a pair of easy spread covers. However, he slumped badly in a five-game stretch, especially in a 34-0 home loss to Georgia, only to snap out of it in road wins at Texas A&M and at Tennessee. Mauk's accuracy needs to improve, but the bottom line is that he has been instrumental in helping his team win the East in back-to-back season. His career record as a starter is 14-4 and his TD-INT ratio is 36/14. Finally, we should also mention that he's the third-best scrambler among SEC QBs behind only Prescott and Dobbs.

Discussing the rest...

UK's Patrick Towles is the only other established QB in the league. He helped the Wildcats improve from 2-10 to 5-7, narrowly missing a bowl when the defense couldn't hold a late fourth-quarter lead at Louisville in a 44-40 loss. Towles threw for 2,718 yards with a 14/9 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 559 yards and six TDs. He'll have to hold off redshirt freshman Drew Barker, who was the most highly-ranked QB signed by UK since Tim Couch.

Florida QBs Will Grier and Treon Harris will continue to compete for the starting job in August, but all indications coming out of spring were that Grier was the front-runner. He redshirted in 2014 but was ranked higher than Harris by recruitniks coming out of high school. Grier appears to be more in the pro-style mold that fits McElwain's offense. With that said, Harris earned valuable experience as a true freshman, throwing nine TD passes compared to just four picks. He also ran for three TDs and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. The Gators went 4-2 in Harris's six starts and were two plays away from being unbeaten. A 93-yard pick-six (that was more to blame on TE Tevin Westbrook than Harris) on a first-and-goal play at FSU was the difference in a 24-19 loss. If one of three plays goes UF's way against South Carolina, it would've won what turned out to be a 23-20 loss in overtime. The Gamecocks blocked a short field goal a few plays after a Harris TD run was nullified by a holding penalty. Then with less than 30 seconds remaining, South Carolina blocked a punt that set it up for a last-second score to force OT.

Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama have loaded teams, but their seasons are tough to predict with all the uncertainty under center. UGA lost Mason, Alabama no longer has Blake Sims and Ole Miss will have a starter not named Bo Wallace for the first time since 2011.

Sims was an underdog to be the Tide's starter in 2014, especially after struggling in the spring game. If you listened to Jimbo Fisher tell it, FSU transfer Jacob Coker was the second coming of Joe Montana. But after arriving in Tuscaloosa last May, he couldn't beat out Sims. Coker returns and will compete with redshirt freshman David Cornwell. There's an outside chance true freshman Blake Barnett, a five-star recruit, could be in the mix. Whoever gets the nod in Week 1 will face a daunting task in a neutral-field game against Wisconsin in Arlington, TX. The Badgers have held opponents to 20.5 points per game or fewer in five consecutive seasons. They bring back six starters from last year.

The Georgia QB competition has a new potential contender in Virginia transfer Greyson Lambert, who had a 10/1 TD-INT ratio for the Cavs last season. Lambert will battle with third-year sophomore Brice Ramsey.

Ole Miss has three players vying for the starting job, including Clemson transfer Chad Kelly and a pair of sophomores in DeVante Kincade and Ryan Buchanan. Kelly is considered to be more talented and will likely win the job if he can stay out of trouble in Oxford this summer.

Texas A&M's Kyle Allen, a true sophomore, could be pushed by true freshman Kyler Murray in August. Allen had a 16/7 TD-INT ratio as a freshman last year, helping the Aggies win 41-38 at Auburn as 23-point underdogs. Murray was a five-star prospect but wasn't in College Station for spring ball.

LSU's competition was between Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris in the spring, but Jennings was one of four LSU players suspended indefinitely last week after being arrested on theft charges. Harris, a true sophomore, played well at garbage time but his only start was a disaster at Auburn.

The favorite to start for Steve Spurrier at South Carolina is Connor Mitch, a third-year sophomore who has played in only two games. His competition is junior Perry Orth and incoming freshman Lorenzo Nunez, a dual-threat QB who will likely have a package of plays for each game. All-American WR Pharoh Cooper may also play some QB in Wildcat formations in short-yardage situations. Cooper completed 5-of-8 passes for 78 yards and two TDs without an interception last year.

[StarDust Bum]

2015 Independents Preview

July 5, 2015


And Then There Were Three

In just two years roll call among FBS Independent college football teams has been slashed in half from six squads in 2013 to just three as we enter the 2015 season.

After a brief one-year romance as Independents, Idaho and New Mexico State shook their Independent status in 2013 and headed out for the sun… the Sun Belt Conference.

This season Navy becomes conference affiliated for the first time ever in its illustrious history when it joins the fledgling American Athletic Conference.

This will be the first time in Navy's storied history the program will be a part of a conference in football.

The American is also working things out with Navy to allow the Army-Navy Game to continue being played on the week after championship week.

Meanwhile, as alluded to last year, BYU football coach Bronco Mendenhall continues to argue his case for the Cougars' inclusion into the Big 12. "We would love to be in the Big 12," Mendenhall told an Austin newspaper. "I would love to be a member of that conference. I think that would make a lot of sense." It makes so much sense it will likely never happen. Out best guess: say hello, PAC 12.

Self-Sufficient Dogs

Keep this thought in mind when handicapping the chances of three of the three

INDEPENDENTS this season –

Army, BYU and Notre Dame: Collectively, under their current head coaches, namely the trio of Jeff Monken, Bronco Mendenhall and Brian Kelly, shine in games when taking points with their current affiliations, going 53-34-3 ATS combined.

Better yet, the triplets are 35-16-2 ATS collectively as dogs in games in which their clubs own a win percentage of less than .666 on the season – including a super-sharp 7-0-1 ATS when off a win of more than 14 points.

Note:

Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

ARMY (Offense - 5/3, Defense - 5/0, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YOU’RE IN THE ARMY, NOW

Unlike their military brethren, Air Force and Navy, it’s been a long time between drinks of bowl water for the Black Knights. According to SBNation.com, since winning 10 games in 1996, the Knights have been to one bowl game and finished with a winning record just once (2010). The 13 years before then: 35-115. The four years since then: a mighty lean 12-36. When Jeff Monken came over from a successful stint at Georgia Southern to help right the ship (sic), the triple-option specialist improved the Infantrymen a notch in 2014 despite slipping in the stats on both sides of the ball. Depleted of returning starters, a truer test comes in 2015.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Cadets are 0-20 SU and 1-19 ATS in their last 20 true road games since 2011.

BYU (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 6/3, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: UPHILL LIFT

After nursing the program back to health with 90 wins in ten seasons, including bowl appearances all 10 years, Bronco Mendenhall has surpassed expectations. Now in 2015, BYU will be one of only five teams to be coached by the same 10 full-time coaches. Best news for the Mormons, though, is the return to full health of star QB Taysom Hill, who had this offense percolating prior to breaking his leg in Game Five against Utah State last year. From there it went downhill like a runaway skier with four straight losses – but the ‘Y’ rallied to close out the season with four consecutive wins. Facing the 17th toughest schedule will be a challenge – especially in September – but Bronco’s up to the task.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Cougars are 22-22 the last nine seasons versus teams currently in Power Five conferences.

NOTRE DAME (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 10/3, 41 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ONE STACKED DAME

Thirteen players on the offensive side of the ball, along with 18 on the defense – all with starting experience - gives head coach Brian Kelly as well-stocked a shelf as he could possibly pray for in 2015. Because of inexperience and attrition down the stretch, the Irish started 20 different players on defense in 2014, with only three starting all 13 games. Of a possible 143 starts last season, 127 of them return for the Dame’s ‘D’. Not to mention they went 13 consecutive quarters without allowing an offensive touchdown late in the year. With QB Everett Golson transferring out to Florida State, Malik Zaire is back to direct the attack. The rest is up to Touchdown Jesus.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Kelly is 20-4-2 ATS as a dog of 12 or fewer points versus sub .900 opponents.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 college football betting preview: TCU will score, but will it be enough?

The Baylor Bears, returning a bevy of starters this season, are the favorites to win the Big 12. But will they be able stop Trevone Boykin and the TCU Horned Frogs?

Expert AAA Sports breaks down the best ways to wager on the Big 12 and gives his season win total picks for each of its members heading into the new college football campaign.


Baylor Bears (2014: 11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-2
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Bears: Why not? Baylor brings back just about everyone except quarterback Bryce Petty, and the Bears will go into just about every game this season knowing that they will be able to bully their opponents on both sides of the line.

Why not bet the Bears: A trio of cupcakes early in the season (SMU, Lamar and Rice) could create a false sense of security for when the real games start in October. At least whoever is calling signals will be able to get his feet wet without too much pressure.

Season win total pick: Over 10


Texas Christian Horned Frogs (2014: 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Horned Frogs: TCU will put up points. A lot of points. Trevone Boykin is back at QB after finishing fourth in the country in total offense last season. Top wideout Josh Doctson also returns after setting single-season school record for TD catches and yards. Yikes.

Why not bet the Horned Frogs: The other side of the ball is a problem, especially at linebacker. TCU uses only two LBs, and both of them will be newbies after the departures of standouts Paul Dawson and Chris Hackett. May take a while before TCU can stop decent offenses.

Season win total pick: Push


Oklahoma Sooners (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 4-1
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Sooners: After a step-back and somewhat disappointing 2014 season, OSU revamped its offense. Lincoln Riley moves in from East Carolina as OC and will give the Sooners a wide-open offense. And if that doesn’t work, they can just hand off to Samaje Perine, one of the best in the Big 12.

Why not bet the Sooners: Questions are everywhere in a program that was once of the top 5 in the country. Might be a good idea to stay off this team, which must play at Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Kansas State and Baylor. Ouch.

Season win total pick: Under 9


Oklahoma State Cowboys (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 5-1
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Cowboys: Things are looking up in Stillwater, where the Cowboys surprised even themselves by finishing over .500 and defeating Washington in the Cactus Bowl in what was expected to be a serious rebuild. QB Mason Rudolph, who figured to red-shirt last season but was pressed into service, is a good one. Defense isn’t bad, either.

Why not bet the Cowboys: Careful here. OSU gave up 47 more points than it scored last season, and even that number was inflated by a meaningless 30-point victory over Texas-San Antonio.

Season win total pick: Under 7


Texas Longhorns (2014: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 7-1
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Longhorns: Should be value to be had here because Texas is just not perceived as a Top-25 program anymore. But Charlie Strong has some talent, and as road wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State proved last season, the guy can coach.

Why not bet the Longhorns: Texas averaged only 21.7 points a game last season, and while the spread offense this year will be new, there is no guarantee it will be better. The Longhorns were beaten by Baylor, Kansas State and TCU by an average score of 33-16 in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5


Kansas State Wildcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 10-1
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Wildcats: Does Bill Snyder ever have a bad season? Somehow Snyder managed to cajole nine wins out of last year’s squad, and no one should bet too heavily against him finding a way to keep the Cats in the mix this season.

Why not bet the Wildcats: Kansas State may be the only big-time program in the country with a starting QB who has never played the positon at any level. Joe Hubener looks like the No. 1 QB at this point, and the walk-on played several other positions in high school, but not quarterback.

Season win total pick: Over 7


West Virginia Mountaineers (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 15-1
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Mountaineers: WVU will score – it always does. QB Skyler Howard will get nothing but better and running back Rushel Shell could be one of the top backs in the country if he stays healthy – he had 788 on the ground last season despite fighting a sprained ankle for much of the season. Defense has to plug a few holes, but should be among the best in the conference.

Why not bet the Mountaineers: Hopes always seem high at WVU, but the math is irrefutable – the Mountaineers are 18-20 in their last three seasons and are firmly ensconced in the middle of the conference. They’re probably two recruiting classes from serious contention.

Season win total pick: Over 8


Texas Tech Red Raiders (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 20-1
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Red Raiders: Last season could have been a bit of an aberration. Tech never really got things going, lost some games early due to turnovers, and the whole somehow seemed smaller than the sum of its parts. The Raiders were better than their record showed, and they have a solid offensive line to start with this year.

Why not bet the Red Raiders: There’s instability at the QB position, where neither Patrick Mahome nr Davis Webb has been able to separate from the other. Then there’s the defense, which allowed more points than any team in the conference last season (495) and seems capable of allowing 50-plus on any given Saturday.

Season win total pick: Under 6


Iowa State Cyclones (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Cyclones: Iowa State is your basic Dollar Store team. You might be able to find some value if you look hard enough. The Cyclones should be able to move the ball pretty well, led by veteran QB Sam Richardson and a group of pretty good wideouts.

Why not bet the Cyclones: Any program that has won a total of five games in the last two seasons has problems. Another dumpster fire will probably cost Paul Rhoads his job. Rhoads will have his hands trying to repair damage in the offensive line and a defense that ranked 125th in the country last year.

Season win total pick: Over 3


Kansas Jayhawks (2014: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: 25-1
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Jayhawks: Because either you have a lot of money that you don’t need to pay bills, you graduated from Kansas or you regret not being alive to watch the carnage in Rome’s Colosseum.

Why not bet the Jayhawks: All you need to know about Kansas is that only five starters return from a team that wasn’t very good last season and will probably be worse this time around. Coach David Beaty should probably spend a lot of his time on the recruiting trail, because he has one of the most difficult rebuilds in the country on his hands.

Season win total pick: Under 3

[StarDust Bum]

FSU QB Johnson off team after video shows him punching woman

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) Florida State has dismissed freshman quarterback De'Andre Johnson from the team on the same day that prosecutors released video showing him punching a woman at a bar.

In a statement Monday, coach Jimbo Fisher announced Johnson's immediate dismissal. The quarterback had been suspended after the June 24 assault.

In the security camera video released by the State Attorney's Office, it appears the woman and Johnson were trying to get a position at the bar, and Johnson jostled her.

The woman raises a fist and shouts at Johnson before he grabs her fist and holds it down. She then raises her other hand and swings. It's not clear whether she made contact, but Johnson responds by punching her in the face while still grabbing her other hand. She staggers, and her nose begins bleeding.

Johnson has been charged with misdemeanor battery.

[StarDust Bum]

AAC college football betting preview: Cincy pegged as fave with big season on the horizon

The American Athletic Conference goes through another shakeup in its third season as Navy joins the mix to increase the membership to 12 teams. Cincinnati is the fave to win the conference, but with Memphis, Temple and UCF in the fold, there is value in the AAC.

Steve Merril looks at all 12 AAC teams and give season win total picks for each heading into the 2015 campaign.

Central Florida Knights (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Knights: Central Florida has dominated conference opponents by going an impressive 15-1 over the last two seasons. The Knights have won back-to-back conference championships, and they’ll be in contention once again this season. Quarterback Justin Holman returns for his junior season after throwing for 2,952 yards with 23 touchdowns in 2014.

Why not bet the Knights: Despite Central Florida’s recent league domination, they have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. They also lost their top four wide receivers and all four of their starting defensive backs. Overall, Central Florida has the fewest returning starters (9) in the American Athletic Conference, so inexperience could be their undoing in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7


Cincinnati Bearcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +260
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Bearcats: Cincinnati is poised for a big season in 2015. The Bearcats’ offense is loaded, and they return eight starters from last year’s team that averaged 34 points per game. Quarterback Gunner Kiel returns after throwing for 3,254 yards and a school record 31 touchdown passes in 2014.

Why not bet the Bearcats: Defense. Cincinnati’s stop unit regressed last season, allowing 27.2 points and 439 yards per game. They only gave up 21 points and 316 yards per game the season before. They return just five defensive starters this season, so they will need to improve dramatically if they want to win double digit games in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 7


Connecticut Huskies (2014: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Huskies: Bob Diaco will begin his second year at Connecticut, so the Huskies should improve some. They return 14 starters, including eight starters on a defense that was better than the season before. Connecticut’s defense could keep them in some games this season, so they could be live when getting a lot of points as an underdog.

Why not bet the Huskies: The offense is a major concern. Connecticut only averaged 15.5 points on 276 yards of total offense per game last season. The quarterback position doesn’t have a lot of experience, so another poor offensive season is quite likely. The road schedule is brutal as well, so there’s not a lot to like about Connecticut heading into the 2015 season.

Season win total pick: Under 3


East Carolina Pirates (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Pirates: East Carolina has a successful program as they’ve made a bowl game in eight of the last nine seasons. The Pirates have won eight games or more in each of the last three years, and they’ll be in contention to extend that streak to four.

Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates return just eleven starters overall, and they have a new offensive coordinator in Dave Nichol. East Carolina also has to replace a pair of offensive standouts, QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy, so Nichol’s job won’t be easy. Out of conference games at Florida and at BYU don’t help either, so the Pirates have some question marks coming into this season.

Season win total pick: Over 7


South Florida Bulls (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Bulls: South Florida is in their third season under head coach Willie Taggart, so there’s a chance they could improve upon their 4 wins from a season ago. The Bulls should see defensive improvement, especially since they are switching to a 4-2-5 scheme that fits their personnel well.

Why not bet the Bulls: The team returns just 4 offensive starters, and under Taggart, the Bulls have only averaged 13.8 and 17.2 points per game. Overall, South Florida’s program has been in decline over the last four seasons, and there’s nothing to suggest a reversal of form will be seen in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 4


Temple Owls (2014: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Owls: Temple returns 19 starters from a team that went 6-6 last season. The Owls have an excellent defense, and they should be the best in the AAC. Temple returns ten starters on a stop unit that only gave up 17.5 points per game last season. With 15 seniors on the two deep, Temple is set to have their best season in quite awhile.

Why not bet the Owls: Temple’s offense needs to get better. The Owls only averaged 308 yards per game last season, and they scored 20 points or less in their last seven games. In conference play, Temple was -69.5 yards per game, and that’s a direct reflection of their poor offense. If the scoring unit fails to improve, Temple will be a .500 team once again.

Season win total pick: Over 7


Houston Cougars (2014: 8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +825
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Cougars: Houston has some things pointing in their direction for a solid 2015 season. The Cougars return quarterback Greg Ward who completed 67.3 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,010 yards and 12 touchdowns in only eight games. Houston’s defense is good as well; the Cougars have given up just 21.8 and 20.6 points per game over their last two seasons.

Why not bet the Cougars: Houston has a whole new coaching staff this season. Head coach Tom Herman comes over from Ohio State where he was the offensive coordinator. Major Applewhite is the new offensive coordinator while Craig Naivar and Todd Orlando will co-coordinate the defense. With new schemes on both sides of the ball, Houston may not play-up to their talent level in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 8


Memphis Tigers (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Tigers: Justin Fuente and Darrell Dickey’s offensive system exploded last season as Memphis averaged 36.2 points per game. The Tigers should roll along again in 2015 as eight offensive starters return, including QB Paxton Lynch who threw for 3,031 yards with 22 touchdown passes.

Why not bet the Tigers: Memphis came out of nowhere to win 10 games last season, and teams that fit that profile usually regress the following season. The Tigers’ defense was good last year (19.5 ppg), but that unit only returns three starters while losing coordinator Barry Odom to Missouri. Memphis’ season will hinge on their defense, and if they falter, the Tigers will be a .500 team at best.

Season win total pick: Under 8


Navy Midshipmen (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1300
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Midshipmen: Navy runs the triple option offense, and it’s difficult to stop, especially for teams that haven’t seen it before and only have a week to prepare. The Midshipmen are affiliated with a league for the first time in 124 years, and they’ll have a major advantage over their opponents this season as none of them will have a bye prior to playing Navy. Senior QB Keenan Reynolds returns, so the Midshipmen will be a formidable team this season.

Why not bet the Midshipmen: Navy’s defense has been vulnerable to high-scoring, athletic offenses and they’ll face their fair share in the AAC this season. Their late schedule isn’t ideal either as they have to play at Memphis and at Houston in a 20-day span. If the Midshipmen can’t play consistent defense, their promising season will get derailed.

Season win total pick: Over 7


SMU Mustangs (2014: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Mustangs: SMU returns 16 starters this season after winning just one game in 2014. There’s nowhere to go but up for the Mustangs, so they should be a much better team this season. New head coach Chad Morris is a proven offensive guru as his Clemson’s offenses averaged 37.3 points per game over the last three years.

Why not bet the Mustangs: The Mustangs were embarrassingly bad on offense last year. They averaged just 11.1 points per game, and their average loss came by 30 points per game overall, and 22 points per game in conference play. New systems take time to develop, and unless SMU’s offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish with a losing record once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Over 2


Tulane Green Wave (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3700
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Green Wave: Tulane is in their fourth season under Curtis Johnson, and they return 16 starters, so there are some positives. The Green Wave will win with their defense, a unit that allowed a respectable 28.4 points and 388 yards per game in 2014. Those numbers aren’t bad considering they only went 3-9 SU last season. If the defense improves some, Tulane can be a sticky underdog this year.

Why not bet the Green Wave: Tulane has serious issues on offense. The unit only averaged 16 points per game last season, and they’ve averaged 347 yards per game or less in all three years under Johnson. The Green Wave scored a total of 16 points in their last three games of the 2014 season. If the offense doesn’t get significantly better, Tulane will be in the basement once again in 2015.

Season win total pick: Under 5


Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Golden Hurricane: Tulsa returns 16 starters in the first year of new head coach Philip Montgomery. He was Baylor’s offensive coordinator for the last three years, so he will implement a similar offense at Tulsa. The offense did average 24.7 points per game in 2014, so they could be even better under Montgomery’s schemes.

Why not bet the Golden Hurricane: The Golden Hurricane come in off a 2-win season, and while there’s nowhere to go but up, the team still lacks much talent. After winning 29 games from 2010-2012, Tulsa is just 5-19 over the last two seasons. It will take time for Montgomery to get the right players to fit his schemes, so 2015 figures to be a rebuilding season for Tulsa.

Season win total pick: Under 5

[StarDust Bum]

2015 MAC Preview

July 13, 2015


Bye, Bye Birdie

Entering its 69th year of gridiron competition, the MAC once again welcomes 13 teams in an unbalanced conference.

That changes next season when UMass flies to the coop after a short three-year visit.

Where Have You Gone Big Ben?

For a football program that’s lost 24 of its last 26 games – including 13 consecutive losses against winning opponents - it seems like a lifetime since Ben Roethlisberger was behind center at Miami Ohio. That’s because the RedHawks were 27-11 behind Big Ben in his three years with the program from 2001-2003. Since his departure they’ve gone just 46-89 overall. Complicating matters, all four non-conference foes this season owned winning records in 2014.

Bowl Fodder

The MAC has been little more than forage for opponents in bowl games dating back to 2007, as they are just 11-28 SU and 11-27-1 ATS in post season play in that span.

Worse, when facing a bowl opponent off a season ending loss, the MAC lacks any kind of attack going a paltry 1-17 SU and 2-16 ATS in these games. Bowling Green picked up the sole victory last season when they upended lowly South Alabama, 33-28, in the Camelia Bowl.

And speaking of facing non-conference opposition, the lightweight MAC is a staunch 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS laying points away from home against losing opposition.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

AKRON (Offense – *7/4, Defense – 6/3, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ZIPPITY-DOO-DAH
The 10 victories totaled the past two years by the Zips more than tripled the wins of the previous three seasons combined (3). And, had Kent State not scored on a TD pass with 1:00 remaining in last year’s finale, Terry Bowden would have finally turned this program from a stone loser to a winner in the three years he promised. Last year’s roster featured 20 players from Florida. In addition, T-Bow brought in immediate talent upgrades via the transfer market, including more 3 and 4-star players last year than any team in the MAC. And another batch of reinforcements will be aboard this season. Next year is here.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Akron’s schedule is the third easiest in the land with opponents finishing a combined 58-90 last year.

BALL STATE (Offense - *10/5, Defense – 7/3, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ONE STEP BACK, THREE STEPS FORWARD
After being the only team in the nation to have upped its season win totals every year from 2010 to 2013, the Cardinals lost flight in 2014. A 5-7 season interrupted a steady three year improvement under head coach Pete Lembo. The silver lining is the fact he is the first coach in Ball Sate history to win 30 games in his first fours years at the helm. He also led the Cardinals to a school record 501 points in 2013. With a ton of returing starters back for 2015, consider last year’s slip a mere blip. Remember, as Bill Connelly of SB Nation said, “If they could get a washing machine to fly, Pete Lembo could land it.” Enough said.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ball State led the nation in 4th-down conversion percentage (.846) last season.

BOWLING GREEN (Offense - *11/5, Defense – 4/2, 46 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ALL SYSTEMS GO
Dino Babers was a highly touted hire and he delivered the goods in his first year at the helm at Bowling Green. Aside from winning eight games, including the inaugural Camellia Bowl, the Falcons went undefeated against MAC East Division competition for the second consecutive season. They also notched a first-ever home win over a Big Ten team when they outlasted Indiana in a thrilling 45-42 victory. Dino’s “basketball team on turf” solidified his reputation as an offensive guru, despite slipping 24 YPG. And the offense is back intact for more in 2015. It’s the defense that worries us, one that regressed a whopping 172 YPG. Buyer beware.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons went 23-1 SU in games where they won the stats, and 3-14 SU in games when they lost the stats over the last three years.

BUFFALO (Offense – *8/2, Defense – 4/1, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WHITEWATER LANDING
Immediately after losing to Army and Eastern Michigan in the same season last year, new Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold’s cell phone began ringing off the hook. Hey, it’s what happens when a desperate team learns that a coach with a 109-6 career record is available. Leipold won SIX national titles at Div-III Wisconsin-Whitewater – and his trademark was a defense that bordered on rabid, never allowing more than 12.2 points or 300 yards per game. Throw in six years as a Big Ten assistant and three years under Frank Solich at Nebraska, and we can’t wait to see what LL can do with an experienced team that closed strong in 2014. The MAC is on alert.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since joining the MAC in 1999, Buffalo is 5-53 SU and 20-37 ATS versus winning opponents.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Offense – *6/1, Defense –5/2, 38 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TALK THE TALK
In one of the most dramatic comebacks in bowl history, the Chippewas outscored Western Kentucky 34-0 in the 4Q of the Bahamas Bowl last season, erasing a 49-14 deficit before failing on the two-point conversion. When asked at the end of the game why he went for two points, the head coach said, “A Dan Enos team don’t quit, and we didn’t’ quit.” A month later, Enos quit CMU to become the OC at Arkansas. Enter John Bonamego, a Central Michigan grad and 16-year NFL special teams whisperer. The good news is nearly the entire recruiting class has stayed on – a level of commitment rarely seen these days. Its too bad Enos couldn’t walk the walk.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Outgained by 42.5 YPG during the first five games last year, the Chips outgained foes by 121.8 YPG in the final eight games.

EASTERN MICHIGAN (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 8/3, 24 Lettermen)

Team Theme: THE FACTORY
After going 42-22 at Drake, head coach new Eagles HC Chris Creighton nearly drowned in FBS waters without a lifeguard. Besides winning just a single FBS contest, Creighton ran Eastern Michigan’s season-losing streak to 20 straight. Fortunately, promising redshirt-freshman QB Reginald Bell was one of just seven quarterbacks nationally that led his team in both passing and rushing. Coupled with an exceptionally strong recruiting class (19 ranked players, including six 3-star recruits) this offseason, its no wonder Rynearson Stadium is nicknamed “The Factory.” This team’s mission is to ‘close the gap’ from where they are to their potential – by putting on steel-toed boots and going to work.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles allowed a combined 22 points in the third quarter of play over the last seven games of the season last year.

KENT STATE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 8/2, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: IT DON’T COME EASY
Winning at Kent State has been next to impossible. Consider: since legendary head coach Don James left in 1974, 12 coaches have been hired. Eight left without producing a single winning record, and 10 without landing a bowl bid. Adding to the litany of mediocrity, injuries decimated first-year head coach Paul Haynes’ squad last year, all while being surrounded by the death of a teammate. The good news? It’s all in the rear-view mirror – after a 0-6 SU start last season, the Flashes closed on a strong note, going 4-1 ATS. Behind the league’s best linebacking corps, perhaps one of Ringo Starr’s hit tunes may finally stop blaring in the background.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Former Miami head coach and Michigan State OC Don Treadwell assumes the OC duties in 2015.

MIAMI, OHIO (Offense - 4/2, Defense – 8/3, 39 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MY FAVORITE MARTIN
At first glance, a 2-10 record for the RedHawks would appear disappointing under first-year head coach Chuck Martin. A closer inspection, though, tells a different tale. Miami improved in wins, passing yards, total yards, touchdowns scored, defensive yards allowed, turnovers forced and points allowed. They also had six losses by a single score, including three on the game’s final play. (Thanks, Mrs. Martin, for that update). Pun aside, Martin’s hire was indeed a good one as the former Notre Dame OC and two-time AFCA National Coach of the Year has coached in seven national championship games. He appears to have laid a strong foundation for the future of this program.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The RedHawks are 1-19 SU versus winning opponents the last four years, including 13 losses in a row.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Offense - *7/2, Defense – 8/3, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BIG MAC
Meet the winningest program in Illinois and in the MAC over the last decade. The Huskies have played in five straight MAC championship games and have made a MAC record seven straight bowl appearances. They are also a jaw-dropping 44-1 in games in which they allow 24 points or less. Through it all NIU has played in 70 games since the start of the 2010 season – the most by any team in the nation. And to top it off head coach Rod Carey has compiled more wins in his first two seasons as a MAC coach than heralded Urban Meyer, Gary Pinkel, Jerry Kill or Brian Kelly. Now that’s impressive. Play against the Huskies at your own peril.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies are 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games.

OHIO U (Offense – 9/5, Defense – 8/2, 50 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: PLEASE HELP ME I’M FALLING
Like Humpty Dumpty, the Bobcats have fallen and they can’t seem to get back up. Regression over each of the past three years suddenly has this team’s once-solid standing on softer ground as the Bobcats failed to go bowling for the first time in six years last season (as we predicted on this page last year). Coupled with a 1-4 finish to the season in 2013, Ohio rides a 7-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS skein in its last 17 games – including 1-8 SUATS versus winning foes. However, as a result of playing through a rash of injuries last season, the Bobcats will be much more experienced this campaign. We expect them to be back on their feet this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Frank Solich is 5-0 ATS at home off a SU underdog win in his college football head coaching career.

TOLEDO (Offense - *5/0, Defense – 8/3, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GREATER HEIGHTS
Talk about consistency: the Rockets have gone 6-2 or better in conference play four of the last five years. They have also won between seven and nine games each of the last five years. Despite all that success, they haven’t played in a MAC title game in 11 years. That could change in 2015 as Toledo returns almost every skill position player, every defensive lineman and almost every defensive back. And despite losing five senior OL from a year ago, as many as 10 players could be in the regular rotation as last year’s backups were able to gain a lot of playing time. With a total of six all-MAC players returning, the Rockets are ready for lift-off.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Toledo will play a total of seven home games for the first time since 2007.

UMASS (Offense - *9/5, Defense – 9/3, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: EXTRA WHIPPED CREAM, PLEASE
Mark Whipple’s resume is lengthy and dotted with success. His first six-year stint as a head coach in FCS waters resulted in 49 wins, three playoff appearances and a national title in 1998. His first year at UMass last year resulted in more wins than the Minutemen had in the previous two seasons combined. Like a scrumptious hot fudge sundae, this year’s squad is loaded with goodies (read: returning starters), led by 6’6” NFL QB prospect Blake Frohnapfel and star WR Tajae Sharpe (85 catches last year). Behind an OL that welcomes back seven players who have started 89 games in their career, bowling shirts are on order from the factory.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Minutemen will face the 4th easiest schedule in 2015 with foes sporting a combined 58-88 record last season.

WESTERN MICHIGAN (Offense - *9/3, Defense – 7/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: IN THE FLECK OF TIME
Behind dynamic young head coach P.J. Fleck, WMU has literally cleaned up in the recruiting wars since he came aboard two years ago. As a result, his troops went from a 1-win edition in 2013 to being nudged out from winning the ultra-tough MAC West Division by NIU in the final game of the season (led 21-7 before falling 31-21). And through it all Fleck went out and signed the best recruiting class in the MAC once again this offseason. He will send his young but suddenly seasoned Broncos out against a demanding schedule in September (Georgia Southern, Michigan State and Ohio State), which should toughen them up for another run at NIU.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Western Michigan’s P.J. fleck is the youngest head coach in the FBS (34 years old).

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Backing the Badgers

July 24, 2015


Paul Chryst has returned to Wisconsin to take over the program after Gary Andersen shockingly bolted out of Madison to take the Oregon State job. Chryst, who spent the three previous seasons as the head coach at Pitt, was born in Madison, played quarterback for the Badgers and was the offensive coordinator under Bret Bielema from 2005-2011 when UW had five double-digit win campaigns.

Chryst kept defensive coordinator Dave Aranda around for his third year at UW. Under Aranda, Wisconsin has given up 20.8 and 16.3 points per game in '13 and '14, respectively. The new OC will be Joe Rudolph, who had the same position at Pitt the last three years and was TEs coach at UW from 2008-2011.

Wisconsin has the easiest schedule in the Big Ten this season. From the Big Ten East, the Badgers draw Rutgers and Maryland, who they beat by a combined score of 89-7 last year. They bring back five starters on offense and six on defense from a squad that went 11-3 with an overtime win over Auburn at the Outback Bowl.

I like a pair of preseason wagers on Wisconsin, including its win total to go 'over' 9.5 wins at a -105 price. I'm also bullish on the Badgers to win the Big Ten West for a +155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

Before we break down UW's schedule, let's touch on the team's personnel. As a freshman and sophomore, QB Joel Stave made 19 starts and posted a 28/16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Then just days before last year's opener vs. LSU, former DB Tanner McEvoy was named the starting QB over Stave, who was struggling with his accuracy due to a shoulder injury.

A week later, reports out of Madison indicated that Stave was done for the season. Those reports turned out to be inaccurate and Andersen went back to Stave as his starter in the sixth game. Although he threw only nine touchdown passes compared to 10 interceptions, the Badgers went 8-1 in his nine starts. Stave now has a 21-7 record in 28 career starts going into his senior campaign.

Although Heisman finalist Melvin Gordon is gone to the NFL after rushing for 2,670 yards and 29 TDs while averaging 7.5 yards per carry, the UW backfield is in good shape as usual. Junior RB Corey Clement is poised for a breakout year. Clement rushed for 969 yards and nine TDs while averaging 6.5 YPC in 2014.

Phil Steele ranks UW's offensive line as the third-best in the Big Ten. The Badgers bring back their top WR in Alex Erickson, who had 55 receptions for 772 yards and three TDs last year. With a solid o-line, veteran QB, explosive RB and reliable No. 1 WR, there's no reason to think Wisconsin won't be able to average 30-plus points per game.

How consistent has UW's defense been since 2009? The Badgers haven't given up more than 21.8 PPG during this span. This unit gets McEvoy back to start at free safety. Also, leading tackler and first-team All Big-Ten selection Michael Caputo returns at strong safety. Vince Biegel, a junior OLB, is also back after making 7.5 sacks and earning second-team All Big-Ten honors in 2014.

How easy is the schedule?

Sat, Sept 5 vs. Alabama * (from Arlington)
Sat, Sept 12 vs. Miami (Ohio)
Sat, Sept 19 vs. Troy
Sat, Sept 26 vs. Hawaii
Sat, Oct 3 vs. Iowa
Sat, Oct 10 at Nebraska
Sat, Oct 17 vs. Purdue
Sat, Oct 24 at Illinois
Sat, Oct 31 vs. Rutgers
Sat, Nov 7 at Maryland
Sat, Nov 21 vs. Northwestern
Sat, Nov 28 at Minnesota

Well, if Nebraska isn't ranked on Oct. 10, there's a strong possibility that UW's opener against Alabama in Arlington (Jerry World) will serve as the only game the Badgers play against a ranked opponent.

Wisconsin figures to be a double-digit favorite in all seven home games vs. Miami (OH.), Troy, Hawaii, Iowa, Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. The Badgers get an open date before hosting the Wildcats on Nov. 21.

According to the Games of the Year lines at 5Dimes.eu, UW will be favored in all 11 games after facing Alabama as an underdog. The Badgers are currently two-point 'chalk' for their toughest road game at Nebraska. The other road games are at Illinois, at Maryland and at Minnesota. In the last five seasons, Wisconsin is unbeaten in 10 games against the Illini, Terrapins and Gophers, with all of those victories coming by double-digit margins.

I think Alabama will beat Wisconsin in the opener, but we've seen much stranger things happen. If Gordon doesn't get hurt in the opener against LSU last season, the Badgers probably win what turned into a 28-24 loss thanks to a second-half rally by the Tigers. Like 'Bama, UW beat Auburn last year and both schools got smoked by Ohio State.

I think Wisconsin has a great chance at going 11-1. Even if the Badgers fall to Alabama and lose at Nebraska, we'll still be good with our 'over' win total bet if they win out from there. They'll undoubtedly be favored in all those games, so bettors will have the option of hedging.

In other words, if UW already has two losses and is favored by 14 at Illinois, one could back the Illini on the money line or plus the points. I'm confident UW will win at Illinois and at Minnesota, so I don't recommend the aforementioned hedge scenario. I'm just recognizing that option will be available for gamblers if either of those two road assignments cause any angst.

[StarDust Bum]

2015 MWC Preview

July 20, 2015


We’re Back, Again

For the eighth consecutive year, the Mountain West sent at least five teams into postseason bowl games. The MWC has earned 69 bowl bids since 1999 and holds a 38-31 (.551) all-time record in those contests. However, the Mountain West finished with a 3-4 mark in postseason play last season, marking the fourth year in a row the league failed to post a winning bowl record (9-14 last four seasons).

In fact, its .596 win percentage (31-23) in bowl games since 2004 is second only to the SEC’s .633 glossy (62-36) mark.

Newbies

The Mountain West has welcomed 24 new head coaches over the last 16 seasons, ten of which played in a bowl game in their rookie year.

Former BYU head coach Gary Crowton in 2001, and Boise State boss Bryan Harsin last season, posted the most wins with 12 victories in their inaugural year.

Harsin also joined Utah State’s Matt Wells when he became the second coach to conclude his inaugural season by leading his team to the Mountain West Championship Game and a bowl appearance.

Two new head coaches debut this season: Mike Bobo, Colorado State and Tony Sanchez, UNLV.

We Won’t Back Down

The 2015 non-conference slate features 22 games against teams that earned bowl berths last season.

They face 25 similar opponents during the 2014 campaign.

Eight non-conference opponents finished ranked in last year’s final USA Today/Coaches’ and Associated Press Top 25 polls.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

AIR FORCE (Offense - 6/2, Defense - 4/1, 36 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: WE ARE THE MIGHTY
Just to bring into perspective the Falcons’ dramatic reversal from a 10-loss squad in 2013 to a 10-win team last season, the Flyboys’ offense went from No. 114 to 48 – or from five spots behind Army to five spots ahead of Texas! They lost by 45 points to Colorado State in 2013 and won by 14 in 2014. They also lost by 20 points to UNLV in 2013 and won by 27 last year, all en route to capturing their first Commander-in-Chief’s trophy since 2011. And this year new QB Nate Romine will have nearly every skill player back at his disposal, including 1,000-yard rusher Jacobi Owens and star WR Jalen Robinette. Yeah we get it. Aim High... Fly-Fight-Win.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in games after facing Army and Navy since 2010.

BOISE STATE (Offense - 9/5, Defense - 8/3, 49 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: KNOCKIN ON HEAVEN’S DOOR
The Broncos return almost everybody: their top three wide receivers, all of the tight ends, every offensive linemen, all but one defensive lineman (plus two potential starters who missed 2014 with injury), their top four linebackers, five of the top six safeties, and both starting cornerbacks. Jeez, Louise, is it possible second-year head coach Bryan Harsin can actually improve on a 12-win season? It won’t be a walk in the park, however, having to replace QB Grant Hedrick, along with star RB Jay Ajayi and his 1,823 rushing yards and 28 TDs last season. And losing OC Mike Sanford to Notre Dame hurts, too. Nonetheless, new QB’s Ryan Finley and Brett Rypien, along with RBs Jeremy McNichols, Cory Young and Kelsey Young feel a heavenly season looks to be in the works.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: New OC Eliah Drinkwitz, last year’s tight ends coach, was schooled under Gus Malzahn at Arkansas State and Auburn.

COLORADO STATE (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 8/3, 55 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: BOBO BALL
Jim McElwain left his stamp on the Rams’ program, lifting them from two wins to 10 in just three short years. Unfortunately, when Florida waved the big bucks he bolted, paving the way for Mike Bobo, a former Georgia QB and Bulldogs OC for the last eight years. Bobo’s no-huddle, frenzied hurry-up attack preaches balance with a heavy emphasis on running the ball. "We want to run our offense and still be pro-style, not being in the shotgun all the time,” insists Bobo. Priority One will be replacing Garrett Grayson, the best quarterback in CSU history. Meanwhile, WR Rashard Higgins, a Biletnikoff finalist last year, returns with 2,587 yards and 23 receiving TDs in only 26 career games. Hmmm…

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Colorado State is 0-17 SU versus ranked opponents.

FRESNO STATE (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 6/2, 29 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: LOST IN SPACE
A funny thing happened to the Bulldogs in 2014, their first season in five years without Derek Carr behind center: their offense fell off the face of the earth. The defending Mountain West champs slipped 140 yards and 17 points per game in 2014, resulting in a 6-8 losing campaign. Granted, a pair of wide receivers and offensive linemen, along with three defensive linemen – all starters – were also among the missing. In addition, a boatload of players either graduated or transferred. Suffice to say with added minutes on the field, the defense also regressed. Still, the Bulldogs managed to win the West division, and will likely orbit back again in 2015.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS as single-digit home dogs versus non-conference opponents.

HAWAII (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 6/1, 45 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: CHOW TIME
Norm Chow enters his fourth season as Hawaii’s head coach with 39 years of coaching experience, including three in the NFL. His longest run was a 27-year stint at BYU where the Cougars posted a 244-91-3 record, including 23 bowl appearances. Five new additions to the UH coaching staff (three new coordinators) figure to test the cohesiveness of this club early on. Meanwhile, starting QB Ikaika Woolsey (2,538 yards and 13 TDs) returns but may be pressed for duty by USC transfer Max Wittek. Remember, in Chow’s first year in 2013, Hawaii’s nine losses were by 31.1 PPG. Losses the past two seasons have been by only 11.4 PPG.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chow is 2-22 SU vs. greater than .333 opponents... but 5-0 ATS home vs. non-conferences foes.

NEVADA (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 6/2, 40 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: WEIGHT AND SEE
On college football’s scale of success, the Wolf Pack have gone from heavyweights with Chris Ault to flyweights without. According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, in his last five years with Nevada, Ault was 42-24. The last five years without Ault they are 20-39. And this year they must go without four-year starting QB Cody Fajardo, leaving a hole nearly as big as the Hoover Dam. The good news is most of the starting front seven and its two-deep return. Hopefully a lightweight schedule (foes just 65-87 in 2014) and having to force-feeding youngsters last year (played 71 underclassmen) will prove beneficial this season. We’ll see.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Only two FBS QBs have passed for 9,000 yards and rushed for 3,000 yards – Nevada’s Cody Fajardo and Colin Kaepernick.

NEW MEXICO (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 8/2, 54 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: MOVIN’ ON UP
Finally. After inheriting a team that was 3-33 in its previous three seasons, Bob Davie stated it was time for this team to take the next big step. And thanks to a footprint powered by an overland attack that has averaged more than 300 rushing yards per game in each year of his tenure, the time is here. Granted, a 500-yard defense is badly in need of mending and must find traction if this team is to cross on over to the other side. A switch to a 3-3-5 alignment can’t hurt. But Davie’s bread-and-butter is a powerful offense keyed with three starting running backs and a surplus of starting quarterbacks. An 8-year bowl drought likely ends this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos have been outscored by 7.5 PPG under Davie. They had been outscored by 26.0 PPG the prior three years.

SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 8/3, 38 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: STILL SUNNY IN SAN DIEGO
Since moving to the sunshine city in 2011, Rocky Long completed a college bowl grand slam in four years last season as his Aztecs have averaged 8 wins a season under his lead. When SDSU promoted RB coach Jeff Horton (former assistant under Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin) to OC, the offense went from pass-heavy to run-first as the Aztecs pounded the ground for 216 RYPG, a direct contrast to 2013. Star RB D.J. Pumphrey and his 1,873 rush yards and 20 TDs last season returns. On the other side of the ball, Long may have his best defense yet. With Boise State nowhere to be found, sunny days are in the 2015 forecast.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Under Long, SDSU is 8-8 SU and 5-7 ATS in its first four games of the season, and 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in its final four games.

SAN JOSE STATE (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 7/3, 45 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: TAKE A LOOK AT ME NOW
Spartans head coach Ron Caragher spent the winter pounding the recruiting trail and when the final dust had settled, his efforts ranked in the upper 50% of all FBS teams. He landed a pair of 4-star talents and a 3-star recruit – who were all headed for Power Five conference teams. That’s almost unheard of from someone of San Jose State’s ilk, a team that faded like a baby boomer’s memory down the stretch last football season. It was apparent that replacing graduated QB David Fales was going to be a task last year (it was). However, there is no question this team will have plenty more upside in 2015, especially with new OC Al Borges completing the rebuild and seven starters back from a defense that led the nation in overall pass defense last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: New OC Al Borges has served as an OC with Auburn, Boise State and San Diego State… three of this year’s opponents.

UNLV (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 5/1, 45 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: YEAR ZERO
After going 72-149 since 1990, Bobby Hauck’s 80-17 record at Montana looked mighty appealing to UNLV. Hauck was hired in 2010 – and the Rebels promptly went 15-47 in his five years with the program. Enter UNLV’s newest hire, Tony Sanchez, went 85-5 in his last stint as a head coach with Bishop Gorman Catholic High School in Vegas. Sanchez won six Class 4A state titles and has sent 4-star talent to the likes of Duke, Miami, Nebraska, Notre Dame, UCLA and USC. So will Sanchez be a savior for the downtrodden Rebels? Behind a savvy coaching staff featuring coordinators with a combined 70 years of experience, ground zero starts this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Only two other head coaches have jumped from high school to college football: Todd Dodge (North Texas) and Gerry Faust (Notre Dame).

UTAH STATE (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 7/1, 42 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: CHUCKIE’S BACK, AGAIN
Thanks to a late-season five-game win streak, and despite having four starting QB’s go down with injury, the Aggies played in their fourth straight bowl for the first time in school history in 2014. Unfortunately, 20 seniors who graduated as USU’s winningest class with 37 victories must be replaced in quick fashion. Fortunately, record-setting SR QB Chuckie Keeton, along with three all MWC offensive performers, are back for more. And for the first time in five seasons the Aggies return their leading rusher. The USU defense, which ranked among the top 30 in the nation in five categories in 2014, returns three all-MWC players, including star LB Kyler Frackell, who tore his ACL in the season opener against Tennessee and did not return last year. Some things never change.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies are 37-17 since 2011, with only five losses by more than 7 points.

WYOMING (Offense - 6/3, Defense - 4/2, 45 Lettermen

TEAM THEME: BOHL DREAMS
After going 42-3 and leading North Dakota State to three consecutive FCS championships, the Cowboys immediately lassoed new head coach Craig Bohl in what was hailed by many as a coaching coup. A promising 3-1 start turned sour, though, with a 1-7 finish last year, keeping Bohl up at night – and making him as dangerous as ever this season. With a pair of 700-yard RBs returning, along with plenty of quarterbacks with potential, they figure to only get better. A cushy home slate should find Wyoming pushing the bowl envelope, provided they are able to navigate a salty road schedule. If that happens, Bohl should be sleeping like a baby by season’s end.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last time Wyoming suffered four losing seasons in a row was in 2003.

[StarDust Bum]

Report: Ohio State's Miller shifting from QB to receiver

July 23, 2015

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) Braxton Miller is shifting from quarterback to receiver, whittling Ohio State's QB competition to two star passers.

Miller told SI.com on Thursday night that he plans to start the season in the H-back position and also hopes to return punts. He had surgery to repair of torn labrum in his throwing shoulder before the start of last season and sat out while J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones led the Buckeyes to their first national title since 2002.

Barrett led Ohio State to an 11-1 record before breaking his ankle. Jones then guided the Buckeyes to victories in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin, the national semifinal against Alabama and the championship game against Oregon.

The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Miller was Big Ten player of the year in 2012 and 2013.

[StarDust Bum]

2015 Pac-12 Preview

July 27, 2015


Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

Draft Lodgers

Behind talent level arguably at its best since expanding from eight teams to twelve, a total of eight Pac-12 teams went bowling last season, down one from the 2013 season.

In the end, 39 players were selected in this year’s NFL draft (34 last season), the 3rd most of all college football conferences. It brings the three-year tally to 101 players, also 3rd best of all conferences.

In total, nine Pac-12 teams had at least two players drafted. Oregon and USC led the way this season with 6 players having their named called in Chicago this past April-May.

Innovative Offenses

The West Coast lifestyle seems to fit the Pac-12 to a tee.

In the state of Washington alone, there are now two coaches in place who have essentially revolutionized offensive football over the past 10 seasons, namely Mike Leach and Chris Peterson. You can say the same thing for the state of Arizona, with Rich Rodriguez and Paul Graham leading their version of college football’s offensive revolution.

And then there is Cal’s Sonny Dykes, Oregon’s Mark Helfrich, and UCLA’s Jim Mora.

Yes, it’s safe to say the Pac-12 has become an incubator of quarterbacks thanks to coaches who are living the West Coast lifestyle.

Coaching Upgrades Aplenty

And speaking of coaches, according to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, no conference has done a better job of upgrading its coaching roster than the Pac-12.

Oregon (Mark Helfrich for Chip Kelly), Stanford (David Shaw for Jim Harbaugh), Arizona (Rich Rodriguez for Mike Stoops), Arizona State (Todd Graham for Dennis Erickson), Washington (Chris Petersen for Steve Sarkisian), Washington State (Mike Leach for Paul Wulff), UCLA (Jim Mora for Rick Neuheisel), California (Sonny Dykes for Jeff Tedford), and Colorado (Mike MacIntyre for Jon Embree) have all made hires that were arguably notable improvements or trade-offs at worst.

Steve Sarkisian at USC (for Pate Carroll) has his strengths and, now that the program is not suspension-laden, it’s his turn to put his stamp on the program. Oregon State’s Gary Andersen (for Mike Riley) figures to be a great catch, too.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

ARIZONA (Offense - *7/2, Defense - 6/1, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: FASTER THAN A SPEEDING TICKET

For all intents and purposes, it appears head coach Rich Rodriguez has found his niche in Tucson. The defending Pac-12 South champions won 10 games last season for the first time since 1998 and will be one of only five teams to be coached by the same 10 full-time coaches this season. QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson return to lead the attack after outstanding freshman seasons, prompting Rodriguez to gush, “I think we can play faster than we ever have before.” Lightning-quick Wilson was third in the nation behind Indiana’s Tevin Coleman and Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon, averaging 8.3 yards per touch last season (as a freshman). And speaking of fast, the Wildcats will play 12 straight games without a breather this season. A week off with a ticket to another Pac-12 title game would suit Rich Rod just fine.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Wildcats are 2-17 ATS as favorites during the regular season from Game Ten out.

ARIZONA STATE (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 10/3, 53 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BY THE NUMBERS

The numbers don’t lie: back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time since Frank Kush notched double-digit victories with the Sun Devils from 1970-73. Todd Graham now has a school-record 28 wins in his first three seasons at ASU, one more than HOF coach Dan Devine (1955-57). In fact, only Nick Saban, Bob Stoops and Chris Petersen own more 10-win seasons than Graham since 2007. And here’s a scary thought: last year’s big effort was accomplished with the second-youngest team in the nation – only 11 seniors were on the roster – as the final two-deep depth chart featured 25 freshmen and sophomores, not including talented SR. QB Mike Bercovici. In fact, 23 players made their first Division-1 career starts in 2014, second most in the land. The Sun Devils won 10 games while rebuilding their defense from scratch last season. This season they return 10 starters from that unit, including almost the entire defensive two-deep. It’s one reason the PAC 12 figures to be battle the SEC for top conference honors in 2015.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Sun Devils are 24-1 when leading at the half in games under Todd Graham.

CALIFORNIA (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 9/3, 58 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: STILL LOADED FOR BEAR

One of the major benefits of playing underclassmen is seeing them come back as headier players the following season. So it is with Sonny Dykes’ Bears, who bring 34 players back (17 on each side of the ball) with 217 games of starting experience last year – while losing only eight players with 61 games of starting experience. That’s on the heels of having 33 veteran players with 193 starts dotting last year’s roster. Hence, a four-game turnaround last season from 2013 was Cal’s biggest since 2002. QB Jared Goff broke 15 school records in 2014 while ranking in the nation’s Top 10 in six individual categories. Yes, the Bear traps are set.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Cal played 42 newcomers in 2014, including 23 freshmen and 11 true freshmen, while 10 other players saw action for the first time.

COLORADO (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 9/3, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: RALPHIE REBORN

At first glance, a 2-win campaign in 2014 makes it appear that Buffaloes’ head coach Mike MacIntyre, like their namesake, could soon be close to extinction. However, a deeper look shows a vastly improved squad compared with the 1-win edition he inherited following 2012. While their wins last year were chopped in half from a 4-win effort in 2013, Colorado actually improved its numbers on both sides of the ball. Rapidly improving JR QB Sefo Liufau is one of 16 returning starters, along with star SR WR Nelson Spruce (spurned the NFL to stay). The defense was a sieve in 2014 but most of the two-deep are back, along with stud DE Samson Kafovalu (missed 2014). It’s time for Ralphie’s resurrection.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Buffaloes suffered a winless conference record last year for the first time since 1898.

OREGON (Offense - 8/3, Defense - 6/2, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: JUST DUCKY

Meet the winningest FBS program this decade with 60 wins, two more than Alabama and Florida State. With the Marcus Mariota era now in the history books, HC Mark Helfrich turns to Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams. The 5’11” sparkplug was 28-6 with the Eagles, passing for over 10,000 yards and 110 TDs while guiding his team to three FCS playoff appearances. He also torched Oregon State for 475 yards and 7 TDs in a 59-52 win last season. In order to make it back to the College Football Playoffs, Oregon will need to maintain its 7-1 SU away mark versus ranked opponents since 2010. Behind a declining defense, it won’t be easy.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Ducks led the nation in fumbles recovered (21) and fewest turnovers lost (11) last season.

OREGON STATE (Offense - 8/5, Defense - 2/1, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: THE LIFE OF ANDERSEN

One of the top hires in the Pac-12 this season was Gary Andersen, who comes to Corvallis by way of Utah State and Wisconsin. After working 14 years – and two terms – with Mike Riley, the Beavers hand the keys over to Andersen with major holes to replace in 2015. Gone is QB Sean Mannion, the conference’s all-time leading passer, along with defensive stalwarts in LB D.J. Alexander, DE Dylan Wynn and safeties Ty Zimmerman and Ryan Murphy. It’s a good thing Andersen is a defense-first coach. He’s also proved masterful in making money for backers in his first year with a new program, going 16-6-1 ATS, including 7-1-1 ATS as a dog. Forewarned is forearmed.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Head coach Gary Andersen is 19-6-1 ATS in his career versus non-conference foes, including 10-1-1 ATS away.

STANFORD (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 4/0, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: HOGAN’S HEROES

Stanford owned the nation’s third-best defense in 2014, allowing 282.4 YPG – one of only three teams with a sub-300-yard unit. And while the unit is undergoing wholesale changes, the defense will be rock solid as usual. The offense is light years away from the 40 PPG units manned by Andrew Luck in 2010 and 2011. Making matters worse, the ground attack is a shell of the one that existed when Toby Gerhart and Tyler Gaffney once shouldered the load. Fortunately, QB Kevin Hogan comes off the best year of his career. With 32 career starts under his belt, Hogan could be the main hero now that David Shaw’s run of 11-win seasons has ended... the first time in his tenure with the Cardinal his troops failed to tally 11 victories.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Cardinal defense has held 14 foes to season-low – or 2nd low – yardage the past two seasons.

UCLA (Offense - 10/5, Defense - 8/3, 51 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: JACKING UP THE ATTACK

Off back-to-back 10-win campaigns for the first time since 1997-98, the Bruins continue to grow under Jim Mora and his outstanding recruiting classes. Outside of having to replace only three key players from last year’s powerhouse squad, UCLA is set to make a run at its first conference title since 1998. Aside from 18 returning starters, the 239 returning starts from 2014 is most in the Pac-12 this season. With all five starters back on the OL, RB Paul Perkins is set to become the Bruins’ next superstar. Meanwhile, ‘running-backer’ Myles Jack started all 13 games at LB while recording rushing attempts in nine games, totaling 119 yards on 28 carries. The loss of star QB Brett Hundley hurts but the No. 1 recruit in last year’s class, QB Josh Rosen, commonly referred to as the “Chosen Rosen”, replaces Hundley. Expect big things from these Bruins.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Bruins are 7-1 SU and ATS with rest under Jim Mora.

USC (Offense - *8/5, Defense - 7/2, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WHOLE AGAIN

Heisman Trophy candidate QB Cody Kessler was one of only three FBS QBs to throw 30 or more TD passes than interceptions in 2014 (39/5). Included was a Holiday Bowl with only 57 recruited players in uniform. The sanctions-free Trojans will finally have the luxury of a full complement of players, with at least 76 scholarship performers, including a 24-member recruiting class that was ranked No. 1 by most scouts. Oh, and did we mention the best offensive line in the loop with all five starters back from last season. Of the seven offensive linemen who started a game last season, four were freshmen and two were sophomores. All-conference center Max Tuerk is the only senior. In addition, last year’s squad did not allow an opponent to put up points on any opening drive, while outscoring foes 284-149 in the first half. “Our future is ridiculously bright,” beams head coach Steve Sarkisian. With seven home games on tap for 2015, we agree.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Sarkisian is 31-7 as an offensive coordinator and a head coach with the Trojans.

UTAH (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 9/3, 61 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WHAT THE HELL’S GOING ON HERE?

Despite owning 84 wins in 10 seasons, it’s time the Utes address a serious situation. A quick scan of our 4-Year Statistical Review atop this page shows a puzzling, atypical result for the self-assured Utes. Not only have they been outgained each of the last four years, they have managed to out-yard only 15 of 50 opponents in the process. WTF? Surely not the sort of numbers we expect from a Kyle Whittingham-coached team. The winningest coach in Utah history, Whittingham lost OC Dave Christenson to Texas A&M and will rely heavily on 6’7” SR QB Travis Wilson and SR RB Devontae Booker (1,566 rush yards last year) to shoulder the burden.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Kyle Whittingham is tied with John Robinson for the best bowl winning percentage (.889) of any coach in NCAA history.

WASHINGTON (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 4/0, 46 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NOT QUITE A FULL DECK


An 8-win season under a new head coach is never one to scoff at. Looking inside the numbers, though, red flags are everywhere. For openers, U-dub saw its offense regress 110 YPG and its defense decline 22 YPG. It’s what happens when you’re outgained 22 net yards a contest. Digging deeper, the 2015 schedule shows Washington’s opponents owning a 101-56 ledger in 2014, making the Huskies’ Iditarod the toughest in the land. And don’t forget the three stud players from last year’s team that were plucked in the first round of this year’s NFL draft. It’s a good thing HC Chris Petersen ranks No. 2 among active coaches in wins per season (11.11).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Huskies are 14-2 in their first four games of the season over the last four years, including 12-0 at home.

WASHINGTON STATE (Offense - 7/5, Defense - 7/2, 41 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: STAR SEARCH

The Cougars led the nation in passing last season (479.7 YPG), setting or tying 42 school, conference or NCAA records (including QB Connor Halliday’s single-game record 734 yards against Cal). Walk-on redshirt sophomore QB Luke Falk took over when Halliday suffered a school career-ending broken leg in the USC game and immediately lit up the airways, averaging 444 passing yards per game thereafter. The Cougars also bid adieu to star LB Xavier Cooper and stud WR Vince Mayle (106 receptions in 2014), selected in this year’s draft by the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, Mike Leach remains in search of his first winning season in Pullman.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Cougars’ seven seniors on the 2014 season ending two-deep were tied for third fewest total in the nation.

[StarDust Bum]

Coaching Changes to Watch

July 29, 2015

Florida:

UF's offense has been stuck in the mud since Urban Meyer's final season in 2010. The Gators went from the 'Fun N Gun' in the '90s to the Three & Done over the last five years. Defense certainly wasn't the issue for Florida under Will Muschamp, who couldn't buy a bounce in a make-or-break 2014 campaign. UF invented ways to lose against LSU, South Carolina and Florida St. last year. Truth be told, Muschamp's bunch was three plays and a lightning storm away from going 10-2 last year. But the Idaho game was cancelled, Tevin Westbrook dropped a sure touchdown vs. LSU, South Carolina blocked a UF field goal and punt in the last three minutes and Westbrook's drop on first-and-goal with a 9-0 lead at FSU resulted in a 95-yard pick-six for the Seminoles.

AD Jeremy Foley hired Jim McElwain to replace Muschamp after the former Alabama offensive coordinator rebuilt the Colorado St. program in three seasons. McElwain passed his first major test this past January be salvaging a recruiting class that at one point looked as if it might be the worst in school history. With five-star players CeCe Jefferson and Martez Ivey pledging to the Gators, the class broke into the national Top 25.

Now McElwain has to fix an offense that lost four linemen to the NFL Draft. The o-line group has a total of just 10 career starts between them, so true and redshirt freshmen are going to have to contribute right away. The quarterback position is thin on experience, too. Treon Harris had his moments as a true freshman, leading UF to a 4-2 record in six starts. He had a 9/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and rushed for more than 300 yards and three TDs. However, Harris completed only 49.5 percent of his passes. Will Grier, who was redshirted as a freshman in 2014, appeared to come out of spring practice with a slight edge over Harris, but McElwain has said that both players will compete for the job in August.

If McElwain can get adequate play from the o-line, the offense should be vastly improved because the QB will have weapons. DeMarco Robinson is one of the best WRs in the SEC, RB Kelvin Taylor appears poised for a breakout campaign, Jake McGee is one of the country's top TEs and the versatile Brandon Powell is ready to make an impact.

There's still talent galore on the defensive side of the ball, especially in a secondary that might be the nation's best. Still, Florida is a home underdog to Ole Miss, Tennessee and FSU in the Games of the Year. To provide perspective, consider that the Rebels and Volunteers have never been favored at The Swamp.

I wasn't enamored with the McElwain hire, but he's done nothing but good things to date. He assembled an excellent staff, saved the recruiting class and pushed for an indoor practice facility that's on schedule to be ready next month. However, as we all know, the results on Saturdays in the fall are all that matter. If he can win eight games in 2015, McElwain will be off to a nice start.

Kansas:

Where have you gone, Mark Mangino? In the five seasons since Mangino was dismissed, Kansas has had three head coaches who have won only 12 games, the same amount he won in 2007 when the Jayhawks finished 12-1 and beat Va. Tech at the Orange Bowl.

Turner Gill and Charlie Weis crashed and burned in Lawrence. If David Beaty wants to avoid a similar fate, he has to find some talent. Fortunately for the Jayhawks, that has been Beaty's calling card the last three years as he served as Kevin Sumlin's recruiting coordinator at Texas A&M.

Beaty, who was previously on the KU staff in '08, '09 and '11, has no head-coaching experience. He kept DC and interim head coach Clint Bowen around to provide experience and continuity. If there's a plus for Beaty going into Year 1, it's that there are zero expectations. 5Dimes has KU's season win total at 1.5 ('over' -160).

The reality is that Kansas is one of the toughest football jobs among the Power Five schools. If Beaty doesn't succeed, it won't necessarily be an indictment on him as a head coach. The fact that Mangino enjoyed so much success at KU was nothing short of miraculous.

Michigan

gets my vote for making the best offseason hire with Jim Harbaugh returning to his alma mater. Harbaugh did a masterful job of rebuilding the Stanford program before taking the 49ers to three NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl during his four-year tenure in San Francisco.

On paper, Michigan appears to be at least a year or two away from being able to go toe-to-toe with Ohio St., but it would be unwise to underestimate the impact Harbaugh can have on a football team. Although the Wolverines limped to a 5-7 record last season, they return seven starters from a defense that allowed only 22.4 points per game in 2014.

In addition to those seven starters, this unit adds three potential stars that missed all but one game last year. Wayne Lyons had 124 tackles in 22 starts over three seasons at Stanford and the transfer is set to take over at one of the cornerback slots. Senior MLB Desmond Morgan has started 32 games in his career and is poised to return from a hand injury that caused him to miss the last 11 games of 2014. Also, redshirt freshman Jabrill Peppers is set to start at strong safety. Peppers was the prize of Michigan's 2014 class and was considered the country's top prep defensive back.

When Harbaugh took over the 49ers, QB Alex Smith was considered a monumental bust. Under Harbaugh's tutelage, Smith finally began to reach his potential. Iowa transfer Jake Rudock started 25 games for the Hawkeyes, posting a 34/18 TD-INT ratio. If he beats out Shane Morris for the QB job, maybe Harbaugh can get more production and consistency out of Rudock than Kirk Ferentz was able to in Iowa City?

Michigan's win total is 7.5 ('over' -120). If it can find a way to win at Utah in a tough Thursday night opener, a nine-win year isn't out of the question. That would be a great start to what I believe will be a successful (and perhaps dynastic) tenure for Harbaugh. (To be clear, I'm just bullish on Harbaugh and the future for Michigan. I have the Wolverines losing at Utah and likely finishing 7-5 this year.)

Nebraska:

After seven solid-but-not-spectacular seasons littered with controversies and four-letter words galore from Bo Pelini, he wore out his welcome in Lincoln. Pelini was ousted and then the Cornhuskers made the most curious hire of the offseason when they brought in Mike Riley from Oregon St. If I had been given the chance to write down 50 (fifty!!) names of potential Nebraska candidates, I seriously doubt Riley would've made my list.

With that said, I'm not implying he can't coach. Hell, Riley has been a head coach in the NFL and produced pockets of success for Oregon St., which isn't exactly the easiest place to win in the Pac-12.

Riley returns six starters on each side of the ball from a team that finished 9-4, but Nebraska loses workhorse RB Ameer Abdulla and four of its top five tacklers, including All-American Randy Gregory. There are a pair of tough non-conference games (vs. BYU in the opener and at Miami in the scorching mid-September heat), but the Cornhuskers get their biggest Big Ten game at home vs. Wisconsin. They don't have to play Ohio St. and draw Michigan St. at home.

When Riley bolted Corvallis for Lincoln, it set off a chain of events impacting the programs at Wisconsin and Pittsburgh and Michigan St. Gary Andersen, who had gone 19-7 in two seasons with the Badgers, chose to leave Madison to take the Oregon St. gig.

This was a head-scratcher to many, but Andersen is from the Northwest and previously coached at Utah St. Therefore, he's more familiar with the area and its recruiting grounds. Another thing that was bothering Andersen at UW was the school's admission standards.

His stance on this issue became more transparent last week when we learned that Wisconsin's prize recruit in the 2015 class (RB Jordan Stevenson) was denied admission. Still, Andersen is going to have a tough time building a winner at Oregon St.

He inherits a 5-7 club that brings back eight starters on offense but just two on defense. The Beavers have a big-time playmaker in WR Victor Bolden, but three-year starting QB Sean Manning has moved on to the NFL.

Although I think Oregon St. will struggle mightily in 2015 and feel Andersen was better served by staying at UW, there's no doubt that this is a helluva hire for the Beavers.

When Andersen left Wisconsin, the logical choice was Pitt coach Paul Chryst, who was UW's offensive coordinator from 2005-2011 when the Badgers produced record-setting numbers. Chryst brings back his OC Joe Rudolph from Pitt and retained DC Dave Aranda. Rudolph was on UW's staff from 2008-2011.

Chryst has a chance to win big in his first year because the schedule is a complete joke. If Nebraska isn't ranked on Oct. 10, the Badgers probably won't play a ranked opponent after the opener against Alabama in Arlington.

Look for Chryst to get QB Joel Stave back to the form he displayed as a freshman and sophomore. Also, RB Corey Clement won't be much of a downgrade from the dynamic Melvin Gordon.

Pittsburgh:

If we count interim coaches for bowl games, Pat Narduzzi is Pitt's seventh head coach since 2010. That's insane turnover that you rarely see.

The good news for Narduzzi is he inherits a better-than-decent situation. Fifteen starters are back from a team that went 6-7 after losing five games by 18 combined points. The Panthers have a solid QB (Chad Voytik), one of the nation's premier RBs (James Conner) and one of the country's top WRs (Tyler Boyd).

Narduzzi had been Michigan St.'s DC since 2004, annually rolling out one of the Big Ten's best defensive units. He'll have Pitt improved on that side of the ball right away and the Panthers will be bowling in his first year at the helm.

[StarDust Bum]

2015 SEC Preview

August 3, 2015


Twelve of 14 SEC teams hired at least one offensive or defensive coordinator this offseason. The only two teams that did not have a change in the coordinator ranks this offseason were Alabama and Ole Miss.

New OC’s included: Shannon Dawson (Kentucky), Mike DeBorg (Tennessee), Dan Enos (Arkansas), Doug Nussmeier (Florida), Brian Schottenheimer (Georgia), and Andy Ludwig (Vanderbilt).

New DC’s include: John Chavis (Texas A&M), Geoff Collins (Florida), Manny Diaz (Mississippi State), Will Muschamp (Auburn), Barry Odom (Missouri) and Kevin Steele (LSU).

The two biggest hires were Chavis and Muschamp, both million-dollar DC’s who will look to plug holes in defenses with power programs that are simply not up to snuff in the deeply talented SEC.

Here We Go Again

According to 247 Sports composite reports the SEC once again dominated the football recruiting wars in 2015.

The SEC brought in 18 five-star athletes (21 last year). The remaining member of the Power Five conferences - the Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12 and Big 12 - combined to bring in 17 five-star athletes (21 last year).

And therein lies the primary reason for success in the SEC.

Surprisingly, the Big Ten and the Big 12 landed only one five-star recruit each (Ohio State and Texas).

The West Is Best

Peruse the SEC 2015 schedule and one thing stands out like a sore thumb – the SEC West is loaded (again).

Nine of the 11 offensive players recently named All-SEC at media days were from the West, along with eight of the defensive players and two of the four special teams players.

The SEC West didn’t have any head coaching changes this past season, and according to the annual survey compiled by USA TODAY, all seven head coaches made at least $3 million in 2014.

When asked why the West looks best, Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen said, “Just I think the recruiting, the talent level of players is exceptionally high.”

No Argument Here

If ever an argument of who the best football conference in the country is begins to get out of hand, the case quickly closes shut with this staggering fact: At least one SEC player has been selected in each of the past 160 rounds of the NFL draft, dating back to 1993, with a whopping 76 picks chosen in the first three rounds of the last three drafts.

The Cincinnati Bengals picked two SEC players this year, extending to 18 the consecutive drafts in which they've selected an SEC player. It's the longest current streak for any NFL team.

The SEC finished the BCS era 9-1 in title games and has won 8 of the last twelve national titles.

When projecting a national champion this year, keep this sobering thought in mind: Ten of the last 13 BCS and Playoff champions have owned a Top 10 ranked defense.

Thus, as we’ve come to learn, the SEC builds elite defenses with waves of athletic defensive linemen.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


ALABAMA (Offense - 3/2, Defense - 7/3, 58 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEXT MAN UP

To say the Crimson Tide offense was gutted in the offseason is an understatement. With only three starters back on offense – and none named Blake Sims – Jake Coker and David Cornwell were locked in a battle for the starting quarterback position during the offseason – although talk of OSU QB Braxton Miller transferring to Tuscaloosa was in the air. However, recruiting never stops at Alabama where the Tide has reeled in nothing but the best 3, 4 and 5-star classes during Nick Saban’s tenure. Despite having seven players drafted this year, and facing only one foe with a losing record last season, someway somehow the Tide rolls again in 2015. It’s a Saban ritual.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Since 2004 the Crimson Tide own the nation’s top ranked defense, allowing an average of 271.78 yards per game.


ARKANSAS (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 6/2, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

When the Razorbacks managed to beat LSU, Ole Miss and Texas late last year, it marked the first time in school history that the Hogs defeated those three teams in the same season. It may be a new trend but it’s a trend, nonetheless. And speaking of trends, RBs Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams were the only FBS teammates to rush for more than 1,000 yards apiece last season – and are the only 1,000-yard rushing duo in college football to return in 2015. Meanwhile, QB Brandon Allen threw for 20 TDs, with only 5 INTs – the fewest by a Razorback quarterback since 1992. Behind the SEC’s most improved defense in 2014, this team is definitely in vogue.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Razorbacks will face only one team in 2015 that finished the season with a losing record in 2014.


AUBURN (Offense - 5/3, Defense - 8/3, 40 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GUS CHAMP

The tire tracks running up and down Gus Malzahn’s backside these days might have a lot to do with the quality of opponents his Tigers have tackled of late. Over the past two seasons, Auburn has faced the nation’s toughest schedule, with foes owning a combined win percentage of .651. New DC and ex-Florida head coach Will Muschamp looks to apply the salve Malzahn has needed since last winning an SEC title two years ago. Muschamp inherits an experienced stop-unit whose front seven refuses to take a back seat to any defense in the SEC. Meanwhile, new QB Jeremy Johnson is primed to make faithful followers forget the name Nick Marshall, but the Tigers must also replace star center Reese Dismukes, creating a huge hole in the middle of the offense. It’s nothing Malzahn hasn’t handled before.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Gus Malzahn is 15-0 ATS as a head coach after facing a conference opponent.


FLORIDA (Offense - *4/1, Defense - 6/2, 40 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: DON’T CALL ME SURELY

New head coach Jim McElwain was an excellent hire for the Gators, but don’t look for an overnight success story this season. Not when Florida had the third most players (8) players of all college teams drafted this year – including four OL, leaving them only one returning player on the line who started a game last year (and he has a career-ending spinal condition). The Gators were so gutted that only 129 returning starts are back from last season, the second lowest total in the SEC this year. Meanwhile, best friend QB’s Treon Harris and Will Greer – the centerpiece of the 2014 recruiting class – will battle for the starting job. Surely something’s got to give.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Gators were 147-2 SU in games where they held foes to 121 or fewer yards until last year’s loss to Missouri.


GEORGIA (Offense - 7/4, Defense - 6/1, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: RARE AIR

Head coach Mark Richt is now in rare company. Only Bob Stoops, Tom Osborne and Barry Switzer recorded more wins in their first 14 seasons as a head coach. Furthermore, Richt is 80-37 in SEC games and 46-15 in an opponent’s stadium, including 13-9 versus ranked foes. This season Richt brings new OC Brian Schottenheimer aboard looking to replace QB Hutson Mason, who finished second in SEC passing efficiency last year, and RB Todd Gurley, who finished his career with 3,285 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns – despite missing most of 2104 with a knee injury. With All-SEC RB Nick Chubb leading the attack, the Richter scale should keep ascending.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Thirty of the Bulldogs’ 48 losses under Mark Richt have been by 7 points or less, including 12 of the last 18.


KENTUCKY (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 8/2, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: FIVE IS ENOUGH

In spite of improving their numbers on both sides of the ball last year and starting on a 5-1 winning note, the Wildcats suffered a fifth straight losing season in 2014. Mark Stoops welcomes four starters back from last year’s OL which is good news for 6’ 5” 240-lb QB Patrick Towles, who tossed for 2,718 yards last season and compiled a 44-1 record in high school. The bad news is Kentucky will take on the fifth most difficult schedule in the nation in 2015 with foes owning a win-loss record of 95-58 last season – and no less than 10 opponents sporting winning records. Still, look for the progress to continue for Stoops’ troops.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

QB Patrick Towles is the grandson of Jim Bunning, a Hall of Fame pitcher and former United States Senator.


LSU (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 6/2, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: PLEASE HELP ME I’M FALLING

After capturing the SEC title in 2011, the Tigers have fallen each and every year in the SEC West standings, dropping from 1st to 2nd (2012) to 3rd (2013) to 5th (2014) place. Granted, 18 true freshmen played last year, the second most to Tennessee (23). Regardless, 2015 is certainly a critical year for HC Les Miles and his Tigers. Many think RB Leonard Fournette is Heisman-bound and that WR Malachi Dupre is the next Odell Beckham. But finishing dead last in the SEC in passing last year behind an offense that regressed 63 YPG is certainly a red flag. Meanwhile, new DC Kevin Steele comes over from Alabama to head up one of the best defenses in the land.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

After having nine players drafted each of the previous two NFL drafts (most of all FBS teams), the Tigers had only four players selected this year.

MISSISSIPPI (Offense - 9/5, Defense - 7/3, 58 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: DEEP, DEEP FREEZE

After inheriting a team that won just two games in 2011 and had lost 14 straight SEC contests, Hugh Freeze has directed Ole Miss to three bowl appearances in his first three years at the helm – the first coach in school history to do so. The Rebels were nationally ranked for the entire 2014 season, rising as high as No. 3 for the first time since 1964. Over the past two seasons, the Rebels have faced the nation’s second toughest schedule with foes owning a combined win percentage of .639. In addition, Mississippi owned the best scoring defense in the land last year, allowing 16.0 PPG. Behind three straight Top-15 recruiting classes, the Freezer-burn continues.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Freeze is 25-3 SU and 20-4 ATS in games versus .500 or less opponents.


MISSISSIPPI STATE (Offense - *4/2, Defense - 4/1, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BITTER SWEET

Perhaps no team in the land suffered as severe a bipolar attack than did the Bulldogs last season. After tasting unprecedented success when MSU claimed its first-ever No. 1 national ranking – a spot they held for five straight weeks – and notching three straight wins over Top 10 teams for the first time in college football since 1983, the Bulldogs lost their bark when they dropped three of their final four games of the campaign. Worse, they failed to land a spot in the first-ever College Football Playoffs after riding in the pole position most of the season. Making matters worse, only 129 returning starts are back in 2015, the fewest in the SEC. Talk about a major downer.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

MSU has appeared in five straight bowl games for the first time in 115 years of Bulldog football.


MISSOURI (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 6/1, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

The two-time defending champs of the SEC East will square off against the easiest schedule in the conference this season. In order to compete offensively, an offense that slipped dramatically (-124 YPG) in 2014 will need erratic QB Matty Mauk to become more dependable as the WR corps is paper-thin. On the other side of the ball, new DC Barry Odom inherits a unit that loses all-SEC defensive ends Markus Golden and Shane Ray, along with star S Brandon Webb, to the NFL. Complicating matters is the fact that seven of Mizzou’s final eight games are against teams that went bowling last year. For head coach Gary Pinkel, it’s simply déjà vu all over again.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Tigers are tied with Tennessee for the most overtime games played (16) and won (11) in NCAA history.


SOUTH CAROLINA (Offense - 4/3, Defense - 8/3, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GREAT AMERICAN PHAROH

Gamecocks’ head coach Steve Spurrier, the second winningest active coach in the NCAA FBS, and 9-time National Coach of the year, is going to have to dip deep into his bag of tricks in 2015 if he hopes to stay near the top of the SEC heap. That’s because his last two senior classes have won the most games in school history with 42 and 40 victories, respectively. Unfortunately, with it comes roster depletion. Gone are seven starters from last year’s record-setting offense, including QB Dylan Thompson. Top man back is WR Pharoh Cooper, who led the ‘Cocks in 2014 with 69 receptions. But until a declining defense is plugged, the Ol’ Ball Coach could be in trouble.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

Over the last three seasons, the Gamecocks lead the SEC in wins (10) over teams in the final AP Top 25.


TENNESSEE (Offense - *10/4, Defense - 8/3, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: A YOUNG AND HUNGRY LOOK

After snapping a skein of three straight 5-win seasons with a bowl-winning effort last year, expectations are running high in Knoxville. When UT returned only five starters on each side of the ball (with nary a returning lineman) in 2014, the Vols were compelled to force-feed the kids into starting roles. The surprising results were impressive, especially considering Tennessee played 23 true freshmen, five more than anyone else, all while committing the fewest penalties in the SEC. Better yet, the Vols’ 240 total returning starts in 2015 is the most in the conference. As a result, Butch Jones’ hungry youngsters are full of confidence and youthful experience.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Vols are tied, along with UCLA and Vanderbilt, for the most returning starters (18) of FBS Power-5 teams.


TEXAS A&M (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 7/3, 53 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: AGGIE-NIZING

After breaking Johnny Manziel’s single-game passing yards mark against South Carolina in last year’s season opener, QB Kenny Hill was eventually suspended after eight games and has left the program, reportedly for TCU. His replacement, wunderkind FR QB Kyle Allen, went 3-2 thereafter and will be the new A&M starter. After seeing 9 points and 83 YPG vanish from his offense last year, Kevin Sumlin brought in former Wyoming HC Dave Christensen to work with Allen and the offense, along with prized LSU DC John Chavis to tighten up the defense. They’ll be welcome additions as the Aggies tackle the 10th toughest schedule in the land in 2015.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Aggies had only two players selected in this year’s NFL Draft, the same number as Texas State.


VANDERBILT (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 9/2, 53 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WHO ARE THESE GUYS?

If you followed Derek Mason’s first year as Vanderbilt head coach last season, you certainly needed a program to recognize the players: 26 of ‘em made their first FBS career start – the most in the nation. Joining the foray this year is new OC Andy Ludwig. With more than two decades of experience as an offensive coordinator, Ludwig comes from Wisconsin where he directed the Badgers to record-book production the past two years. The landscape on defense also completely changes as Vandy’s youth movement has resulted in 13 of the team’s top 14 tacklers returning for 2015. Safe to say Mason’s youth-infusion last year is ready to pay major dividends this season, despite the fact the Commodores were the only team in the loop to fail to gain a single vote in the USA TODAY Amway Coaches Preseason Top 25 Poll.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:

The Commodores are 0-14 SU and 2-12 ATS in Game Six of the season the last 14 years.