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**Udog** · 01-29-2015, 10:14 AM

Super Bowl Opening Line Report: Patriots' performance forces a pick'em

Four weeks of preseason. Seventeen weeks of regular season. Three weeks of playoffs.

Now we’re down to the real meat and potatoes of the NFL season, with the final two contestants taking their rightful place in the Super Bowl, set for Feb. 1 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The two No. 1 seeds will square off: the defending champion Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots, with the game at pick ‘em in most spots, and Seattle perhaps a 1-point chalk elsewhere.

John Lester, senior lines manager at bookmaker.eu, installed the Seahawks as 1-point favorites, with the total at 48.5.

“We’ve got top-seeded teams meeting in the Super Bowl, so this line wasn’t terribly hard to set,” Lester said. “I don’t think you could argue with a pick ‘em, but we opened the defending champs as 1-point chalk, which coincidentally is the same number and side we used for last year’s Super Bowl spread.

“Of course, the Broncos quickly became favorites in that one.”

How Seattle got there this time, in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game at Century Link Field, was almost beyond belief.

Any reasonable bettor – hell, even an unreasonable one – who was told, “OK, the Seahawks will need to convert a fake field goal for a touchdown, successfully cover an onside kick, complete a Hail Mary of a 2-point conversion, and oh yeah, overcome five turnovers to win this game,” would have laughed and promptly bet the house on Green Bay.

Such a bettor would have still won against the spread, but would be as stunned as the Packers at the final score: Seattle 28, Green Bay 22, in overtime, with the Packers cashing as hefty 8.5-point road underdogs. The Seahawks scored two touchdowns in less than a minute late in the fourth quarter to erase a 19-7 deficit. After the second score, they made a ridiculous 2-point conversion to go up 22-19, but allowed the Packers to drive for a game-tying field goal to force the extra frame.

Then Seattle marched down the field on the strength of two long Russell Wilson passes, the second a 35-yard TD strike to Jermaine Kearse to end the game on the first possession of OT. It was as crazy a playoff game as there’s ever been in this league.

In complete contrast, the AFC Championship Game had all the shock value of a dead 9-volt battery on the tip of your tongue. Host New England, laying seven points at kickoff, led Indianapolis 14-0 in the first quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt as the Patriots rumbled, 45-7.

Patriots QB Tom Brady will be making his sixth Super Bowl appearance, seeking his first title since the 2004 season, as he’s come up empty on his last two trips. His team’s impressive effort against Indy brought the Super Bowl opening line down in a hurry.

Scott Kaminsky, general manager at offshore site TheGreek.com, said his shop actually offered Seattle at -3 in the Super Bowl before the Seahawks and Packers even kicked off. He took the line down during that game, put it back up around halftime of the Pats-Colts contest, and bettors hammered New England from that point forward.

“It’s been all New England money, and it’s down to a pick ‘em,” Kaminsky said, noting the total was holding steady at 49. “Everybody, it was like the whole world, was on the Patriots – smart players and recreational players. With every touchdown, a little more money came in. It was just like a snowball effect. So now we’ll start from pick ‘em and see what happens.”

Lester said he likes where things are lining up early, as it should lead to plenty of wagers on both sides by Super Bowl Sunday.

“I expect we’ll have a lot of different opinions on this game, which should equate to great two-way action,” Lester said. “I don’t foresee this line fluctuating much at all.”

**Udog** · 01-29-2015, 10:14 AM

Super Bowl line watch: What happened to the 2.5 points?

Like Yogi Berra was purported to have said: When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

Super Bowl betting season is over, and for the first time in history of SB betting lines, there is no money line. All bettors need to do is pick the winner in this one, because oddsmakers have determined that, for now anyway, no one will get or give points when the teams kick off in Arizona in about two weeks.

The big question is what happened to 2.5 points.

Before the AFC and NFC championship games were played on Sunday, there was word that a Green Bay-New England Super Bowl would be a pick ‘em, but if the matchup was Seahawks-Patriots, then Seattle would be laying out 2.5 to New England backers.

That all apparently changed on Sunday, when the Seahawks -- who had been kicking hiney and taking names down the stretch and into the playoffs – for some reason looked very beatable for more than three periods at home against the Packers.

GB’s eventual choke which opened to the door for Seattle to get to the Super Bowl a second straight season perhaps gave oddsmakers pause. And while offshores and Vegas books were still digesting the impact of Seattle’s near-death experience in the rain in the Northwest, the Patriots further muddied the waters by putting the hammer to the Colts in also-sopping Foxboro.

The Pats were no longer the Pats who rose from the ashes against the Ravens the week before when they had to perform their own Great Escape. They were the 2007 Belichick-Brady Patriots who took no prisoners.

What were oddsmakers to do? The Seattle-is-a-bit-better narrative had been crushed in a six-hour Sunday time frame, and if a 2.5-point line had been survived NE’s 45-7 win, there would have been riots in the streets of Vegas as bettors flocked to books to grab the points.

That would have mandated a quick line adjustment as books tried to limit overexposure. Best to bite the bullet quickly, so the result was a split-the-baby line in which no one gets or gives.

Somewhere Yogi is smiling.

**Udog** · 01-29-2015, 10:19 AM

NFL notebook: Patriots' Brady fighting the flu

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was in the fourth or fifth day Wednesday fighting a flu bug that first infected his children and had waylaid his wife, supermodel Gisele Bundchen.

"I'll be good. I'm not worried about it at all," Brady said before the Patriots' first practice in preparation for the Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said Brady's illness is not a serious concern and is not impacting preparation for the Super Bowl.

---The NFL team investigating why 11 of 12 footballs used by the Patriots in their AFC Championship Game win were underinflated has asked the physics department at Columbia University for help, according to The New York Times.

Ted Wells, who along with NFL executive vice president Jeff Pash is leading the investigation, made the call to the school's physics department Monday.

New England coach Bill Belichick said last Saturday that weather conditions may have affected the air pressure. Heavy rain and strong wind were in Foxborough the night of the game, and temperatures were in the low 50s and high 40s.

---The Washington Redskins named Matt Cavanaugh as quarterbacks coach.

Cavanaugh joins the Redskins with 22 seasons of coaching experience across the professional and collegiate levels. The 2015 season will mark the 32nd NFL season of Cavanaugh's career, including 14 combined seasons as a quarterback for the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants from 1978-91 and 17 seasons as an NFL coach.

Cavanaugh served as quarterbacks coach of the Chicago Bears in 2013-14. Prior to joining the Bears, Cavanaugh spent 2009-12 coaching quarterbacks for the New York Jets, helping the team to two AFC Championship Game appearances.

---San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Tomsula reportedly has reached into his NFL Europe past for his quarterbacks coach.

Steve Logan, Tomsula's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2006 with the Rhein Fire, reached a two-year deal with the 49ers on Wednesday, according to WRAL-TV in Raleigh, N.C.

Logan, 61, had been out of football since 2011, working in radio and TV, including for WRAL.

Logan spent 11 years (1992-2002) as the coach at East Carolina, where he was 69-58 and coached future NFL quarterbacks Jeff Blake and David Garrard.

---The Jacksonville Jaguars reportedly hired a quarterbacks coach and running backs coach.

Nathaniel Hackett, who was the Buffalo Bills' offensive coordinator for the past two seasons under Doug Marrone, will rejoin Marrone in Jacksonville as coach Gus Bradley's QB coach, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Media.

Former Oakland Raiders assistant Kelly Skipper will be running backs coach under new Jaguars offensive coordinator Greg Olson, the Florida Times-Union reported.

---The Baltimore Ravens filled out the rest of John Harbaugh's coaching staff, including Chris Hewitt as defensive backs coach, Matt Weiss as cornerbacks coach and Drew Wilkins as a defensive assistant.

The Ravens also promoted Richard Angulo to tight ends coach and Mike Macdonald to defensive assistant, and they hired Andy Bischoff as offensive quality control.

---The Cleveland Browns will hire former Florida assistant Joker Phillips to coach wide receivers and are considering former NFL backup quarterback Kevin O'Connell for their open quarterbacks coach position, according to reports by ESPN.

O'Connell, a third-round pick of New England in 2008, was meeting with Cleveland on Wednesday, according to Adam Schefter.

O'Connell, 29, recently has been a quarterbacks tutor, and the Browns likely are interested in him because he worked with Browns rookie Johnny Manziel before the 2014 draft.

Phillips comes to Cleveland, per Adam Caplan, after two years as Florida's wide receivers coach and recruiting coordinator. Before that, he was head coach at Kentucky for three years.

--- Louisville defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has declined the chance to be the defensive coordinator for new Oakland Raiders coach Jack Del Rio.

The Raiders offered Grantham the position under a two-year contract, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported Wednesday. Shortly later, various media outlets reported that Grantham will remain on Bobby Petrino's staff at Louisville.

Grantham, a longtime defensive assistant in the NFL, spent the 2014 season as Petrino's coordinator, overseeing the nation's No. 6 defense.

---The Indianapolis Colts and Canadian Football League wide receiver Duron Carter, son of Hall of Fame receiver Cris Carter, have agreed on a contract for the 2015 season, CBSSports.com reported.

Carter totaled 1,939 receiving yards for the Montreal Alouettes in two seasons after opting to play in the CFL when he went undrafted in 2013. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound receiver had 75 catches for 1,030 yards and seven touchdowns last season.

Carter, 23, wasn't eligible to sign with an NFL team until Feb. 10, but the Indianapolis Star reported that the receiver has an agreement with the Alouettes that he will be released from his contract immediately if he signs an NFL contract.

**Udog** · 01-29-2015, 10:23 AM

NFL

Championship

Patriots pool report: First practice in the books

TEMPE, Ariz. -- The New England Patriots conducted their first practice since arriving in Arizona for Super Bowl XLIX, a two-hour session Wednesday that coach Bill Belichick saw as significant for getting his team back on a regular schedule following two days without practices.

"This Wednesday is kind of like a regular Wednesday, tomorrow will be kind of like a Thursday, Friday will be like a Friday," Belichick said. "So we're trying to get back on schedule."

A regular Wednesday practice includes a heavy dose of situational reps, and the Patriots did exactly that while using one of the two grass fields at the Arizona Cardinals training facility on a mild, partly cloudy afternoon with temperatures around 75 degrees.

After extensive individual drills, the work included third downs, red zone snaps and various down-and-distance challenges.

"There's always things to work on, but we're grinding away," Belichick said.

The Patriots installed the bulk of their game plan for Sunday's game last week while practicing at Gillette Stadium.

"There's a little bit of refining, but it's also practicing closer to the game," Belichick said. "Practicing it two weeks ago and practicing it now, four days before the game, it's more of our normal timeframe."

As expected, the Patriots were at full strength in practice from an attendance standpoint. Center Bryan Stork, who did not practice when drills began last week while nursing a knee injury, practiced without any apparent setback.

Quarterback Tom Brady acknowledged early Wednesday that he's battling a cold, but looked sharp. Belichick isn't worried about his condition.

Said Belichick, "He took all the snaps."

Belichick called the field conditions "great," yet did tweak the environment as music -- rap, rock, hip-hop -- blared for an extended portion of the team drills. Belichick typically pipes in noise to help with concentration and communication, but ease up now.

"In this game, you know, it's kind of a neutral field, so you've got to be ready for it," Belichick said.

The NBC broadcast crew -- including play-by-play man Al Michaels, analyst Cris Collinsworth and sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya -- attended the practice.

Seahawks pool report: All healthy in practice

TEMPE, Ariz. -- With all 53 players on the active roster and 10 practice-squad members healthy enough to work, a rarity for this late in a season, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks opened their practice week for Super Bowl XLIX with their weekly "Competition Wednesday" practice on the campus of Arizona State University.

Under threatening skies with temperatures in the low 70s and a light breeze blowing, the Seahawks practiced for one hour and 32 minutes on Arizona State's two natural-grass football practice fields, the workout ending at dusk under the lights. As usual, the Seahawks were serenaded by a diverse music mix blasting from sideline speakers, ranging from Jay Z to Evil Empire to Elvis Presley.

"Terrific work," coach Pete Carroll said minutes after the practice ended. "Terrific day. The energy was there, and guys got good work in. This was an unusual day for the guys, with the media stuff in the middle of the day. We had meetings in the morning, then the media, then more meetings to prepare for practice, and then came out here. But the guys worked hard."

Notable for their work on Wednesday were the three Seahawks who entered the week with some injury concerns. But today's practice showed the Seahawks should be one of the healthiest Super Bowl teams in memory. The injury questions:

--Cornerback Richard Sherman (hyperextended elbow) worked regularly with the defense and made a leaping interception, extending both arms in the air to make it. With his elbow wrapped, Sherman didn't look affected by the injury suffered in the NFC title game 10 days ago.

--Free safety Earl Thomas (dislocated shoulder), also hurt in the title game against Green Bay, also showed no ill effects playing full time Wednesday.

--Guard J.R. Sweezy (ankle) took his turns with the first-unit offensive line and worked without any sort of limp, looking fit and not lagging behind in any drills

"We're really fortunate to be this healthy," said Carroll. "If we can make it through practice tomorrow, we'll be in great shape."

Carroll maintains that "Competition Wednesday" helps him determine playing time during the season. So even though players worked out in helmets and no pads, the tempo was fast and spirited. When defensive tackle Tony McDaniel batted down a Tarvaris Jackson pass, defensive line-mate Michael Bennett leaped to congratulate him, and three other defenders swarmed them.

Carroll said he'd have to look at the tape of practice to determine a daily winner--on Wednesdays, either the offense or defense is declared the winner--but with the offense keeping the quarterback clean on a late-practice pass-protection drill, he said the offense likely won the day. After practice, many Seahawks used the ASU weight room to get in a quick lift before buses took the team back to its hotel, with members of the Sun Devils' woman's basketball team looking on.

Seattle will continue its preparations Thursday with practice at the same time as Wednesday, 4:15 p.m. Mountain Time

**Udog** · 01-29-2015, 10:24 AM

NFL
Dunkel

New England vs. Seattle
The Patriots head to Super Bowl XLIX to face a Seahawks team that is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Seattle is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1

Game 101-102: New England vs. Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.320; Seattle 146.101
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 1; 48
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1); Over

NFL
Long Sheet

Championship

Sunday, February 1

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NEW ENGLAND (14 - 4) vs. SEATTLE (14 - 4) - 2/1/2015, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 84-49 ATS (+30.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-75 ATS (+23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Championship

Sun, Feb. 1

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks, 6:30 ET

Super Bowl XLIX - University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona

New England
8-2 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
26-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
8-2 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
15-3 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
27-13 OVER in games played on turf

Seattle
24-13 ATS in all lined games
10-1 ATS as an underdog
27-14 ATS in games played on turf
18-6 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
7-0 OVER in road games in non-conference games

NFL

Championship

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. SEATTLE
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games
Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 01-31-2015, 10:11 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Championship

I think this will be a high-scoring Super Bowl. Three of last four Super Bowls went over the total, which isn't relevant but its true. Game is indoors so weather won't be a factor. Think Seattle's DBs are banged-up, so Brady will attack them early and find out if they are indeed healthy. Belichick will take Lynch's run game away, forcing Wilson to put it in the air and see if he can do better than he did against Green Bay.

Belichick/Brady are in sixth Super Bowl, with first five all decided by 4 or less points. Carroll won his first Super Bowl 43-8 LY; he was 28-23 as Patriots' coach, but was fired and replaced by Belichick despite making playoffs twice and going 8-8 the third year. Coaches in their second Super Bowl are 14-8.

NFC won four of last five Super Bowls; its been ten years since Patriots won their last one, but who on Seattle can cover Gronkowski? Seahawks play in this dome every year when they visit the Cardinals- that has to be a little bit of an advantage.

Brady is the better QB; think the coaches are even. Carroll's greatness is underrated, as he and Dick Vermeil are only coaches to win Super Bowl and a Rose Bowl. Willson better play better than he did two weeks ago.

Since 1991, NFC is 4-0 vs AFC in Super Bowls with two #1 seeds. Seattle, 30-27.

**Udog** · 01-31-2015, 10:13 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Super Bowl XLIX

Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (-1, 47.5)

Seahawks’ slow starts vs. Patriots’ quick strikes

If the Super Bowl were the fabled race between the Tortoise and the Hare, Seattle would be cast in the role of the slow-and-steady Tortoise. The Seahawks know a football game is a marathon – not a sprint – and have been methodical in their approach on offense. However, when you’re playing a team as explosive offensively as the Patriots, a slow start can quickly put you behind on the scoreboard and alter even the best-laid game plans.

Seattle has managed just seven points in the first quarter over its last three games – a lone first-quarter touchdown and extra point against Carolina in the Divisional Round. That’s nothing new for this team, which averaged only 4.1 points per first quarter on the season.

The biggest culprit when it comes to the Seahawks dragging their cleats out of the gate is quarterback Russell Wilson. He’s been half-asleep in the opening frame this year, with an 82.3 QB rating, just two touchdowns, and picking up only 6.67 yards per completion on a 59.6 completion percentage. He’s also been sacked 10 times in the first quarter – 24 percent of his 42 total sacks taken on the year have happened in the first 15 minutes.

The Patriots showed just how quick they can pile on the points against the Colts in the AFC Championship, striking for two scores in the opening frame – deflated ball or not – which put Indianapolis on its heels and set the tone for a blowout victory. New England was eighth in the NFL in average first-quarter points (5.5) and heats up faster than Rob Gronkowski erotica, topping the AFC with an average of 16.2 points in the first half.

This is a veteran team that knows how to put its foot on opponent’s throats. If Seattle does fall behind early, the Seahawks may have to put the game solely on Wilson’s shoulders – not exactly where they would like it to rest with Wilson throwing four INTs in the NFC title game.

Patriots’ problems with pass-catching RBs vs. Seahawks’ dynamic RBs

We know the Seahawks aren’t afraid to dig deep into the playbook on the biggest stages and have shown some creativity on offense in the past. Seattle used Percy Harvin as anything but a wide receiver in Super Bowl XLVIII and drew up some trickery for WR Jermaine Kearse to hit QB Russell Wilson on a 17-yard pass in the Super Bowl matchup with the Broncos this September.

Don’t be surprised if running backs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin find their way to slot against the Patriots this Sunday. Lynch, for all his power-rushing prowess, proved he could play with finesse, reeling in 37 passes for 367 yards (9.9 yards per catch) and four touchdowns – ranked fourth among RB in receiving scores. Turbin is also a massive X-factor in this game. He only caught the ball 16 times for 186 yards – 11.6 yards per catch – and scored twice through the air this season.

New England has had a tough time containing pass catching running backs all season. The Patriots were hit for 678 yards receiving from running backs – 7.8 yards per catch and run – and gave up six passing touchdowns to RBs-turned-WRs, which ranks third most in the entire NFL. New England ranked 19th in YAC (yards after the catch) allowed, with 123.5 per game. Seattle ranked second in average yards after the catch, with 6.84 YAC per game.

The Patriots allowed Ravens RB Justin Forsett to score off a catch in the Divisional Round, Green Bay RBs James Starks and Eddie Lacy to combine for 51 yards on four catches in Week 13, Lions RB Theo Riddick to grab three balls for 40 yards in Week 12, Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, Chicago RB Matt Forte posted 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.

Patriots and Seahawks' penalty problems vs. Super Bowl total

No two teams in the NFL have forced more flags to fly than the Seahawks and Patriots this season. Between the two Super Bowl contenders, refs have blown the whistle 277 times for a combined total of 2,292 free yards just handed over to opponents.

The worst offense for New England has been when defending the pass. The Patriots have been flagged for defensive pass interference 11 times in their 18 games (178 yards lost) and led the NFL in defensive holding with 16 infractions equaling 79 yards against. Sprinkle in four penalties for illegal contact – 20 more yards – and the Pats are gift wrapping massive gains for opposing passers.

For Seattle, it’s been a proverbial salad bar of flags and infractions but most of these are coming in the trenches. The Seahawks were whistled for 33 times for false starts, coughing up 160 yards. They handed over 189 yards to opponents on 20 offensive holding calls and 55 yards on 11 defensive holding penalties, as well as 63 yards on 13 defensive offside penalties.

The head referee for the Big Game is nine-year NFL veteran Bill Vinovich, who isn’t a trigger happy official, with his 2014 games averaging 12.63 penalties for 107.56 total yards (NFL average: 13.21 / 110.70). He’s been that way for his career as well, averaging 12.19 flags for 101.85 yards (NFL average in that span: 12.82 / 106.61).

Total bettors can look at these numbers two ways: 1. Both teams get penalized a lot, extra yards and the clock stops – great for Over bettors. 2. NFL doesn’t want its showcase game bogged down with stoppages and having Vinovich letting some things go could help the defense – leaning to the Under.

Seattle went 2-3 O/U in the five games in which Vinovich was the referee since 2012, including Week 3 and 14 this season. The Seahawks were flagged seven times for 34 yards in Week 3’s win over Denver but were rung up a season-high 14 times for 105 yards against in Week 14’s win at San Francisco. The Patriots were 2-0 O/U in games in which he was the ref this season, including the Divisional win over the Ravens that saw seven calls for 60 yards against New England. The other game with Vinovich holding the whistle, the Patriots were called for five penalties for 51 yards in a win over Miami in Week 15.

In the games in which New England was flagged for nine or more penalties this season, the Patriots finished 5-2 Over/Under. For the Seahawks, their six games with nine or more flags thrown resulted in a 4-2 Over/Under count.

**Udog** · 01-31-2015, 10:16 AM

Forty-nine need-to-know betting notes for Super Bowl XLIX

With thousands of proposition bets available across the globe in addition to the point spread and total, the Super Bowl is a betting enthusiasts’ euphoric dream.

The smorgasbord of wagering dishes has become so expansive in recent years that a respectable amount of research can result in a significant financial windfall for sharp and square bettors alike.

The good news? We’re here to take some of that research off of your plate so you can spend more time focusing on how many buffalo wings it will take to feed your entire Super Bowl party.

1. Since 2010, the Seahawks are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when playing an opponent that is averaging 27 or more points per game. The Patriots averaged 29.2 points per game during the regular season in 2014.

2. Only six of the 48 previous Super Bowls closed with a point spread of three or fewer points. No Super Bowl has ever closed at a pick’em.

3. Underdogs have won three straight Super Bowls, four of the last five and five of the last seven.

4. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS over their last four Super Bowl appearances.

5. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass, while the Seahawks are 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games played on grass.

6. Since 2000, Super Bowls with a total of 47 or higher have gone Under in six of eight instances.

7. The Under is 4-1 in New England’s last five Super Bowls and 11-5 in Seattle’s last 16 matchups against teams with a winning record.

8. When it comes to the coin toss, “Heads” had been the correct call five times in a row before “Tails” came through last February. However, note that streaks and trends when it comes to the coin toss are completely irrelevant. “Heads” and “Tails” each have a 50 percent chance of coming up Sunday.

9. The winner of the coin toss has gone on to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy 24 times in 48 Super Bowls (50 percent).

10. Since Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 of the 2008 campaign against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots have elected to defer when winning the coin toss every possible time except once - a 2013 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals that took place in a driving rainstorm.

11. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has elected to defer 19 consecutive times when winning the opening coin toss.

12. The team that scores first in the Super Bowl is 32-16 (66.6 percent) SU.

13. Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka has produced touchbacks on 52 percent of his kickoff attempts this season. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski has produced touchbacks on 61 percent of his kickoffs in 2014 when the weather is 60 degrees or warmer.

14. Only 13 of 48 (27.08 percent) Super Bowls have featured a successful field goal of 45 or more yards. The total for longest field goal on Sunday is 44.5 yards, with the Over at -130 and the Under at +110.

15. Over his seven-year career, Hauschka has converted 129 field goals, 24 of which (18.6 percent) have come from 45 or more yards. Over his nine-year career, Gostkowski has converted 248 field goals, 48 of which (19.35 percent) have come from 45 or more yards.

16. In 2014, New England ranked 12th in the NFL in first quarter points (78), first in second quarter points (183), seventh in third quarter points (101) and 11th in fourth quarter points (106). Additionally, the Patriots ranked second in the NFL in first half point differential (+95) and fifth in second half point differential (+60).

17. In 2014, Seattle ranked 16th in first quarter points (67), ninth in second quarter points (117), 13th in third quarter points (82) and fourth in fourth quarter points (122). Additionally, the Seahawks ranked 11th in first half point differential (+40) and first in second half point differential (+94).

18. Prop: The highest-scoring quarter of the Super Bowl will be: First quarter at 9/2, second quarter at 3/2, third quarter at 7/2, fourth quarter at 2/1.

19. 27 of the last 39 (69.2 percent) Super Bowls have featured more points scored during the second half of the game over the first half.

20. During the 2014 regular season, New England ranked second in the league in turnover differential (+12) while Seattle ranked fourth (+10). The Over/Under on total interceptions for Sunday is 1.5 (Over -140, Under +120) while the total fumbles is 1.5 (Over +165, Under -185).

21. New England ranked fifth in the NFL in end of half scoring (scores that come within the final two minutes of the half) this season while Seattle ranked 14th. “Will either team score in the final two minutes of the first half” is listed at Yes -250, No +210.

22. The Over/Under on rushing yards for Patriots running LeGarrette Blount is 61.5 (-110 both ways). In 76 career games, Blount has eclipsed 61.5 rushing yards 26 times (34.2 percent). In 25 career games with the Patriots, Blount has topped the 61.5-yard mark nine times (36 percent). Seattle surrendered an average of just 81.5 rushing yards per game in 2014, good for third-best in the NFL.

23. At Super Bowl media day, every single Seattle defender I spoke with reiterated the same point about New England’s offense: The Seahawks plan to shut down the Patriots’ rushing attack and force quarterback Tom Brady to beat them through the air.

24. All four franchises that defeated the Seahawks in 2014 recorded at least 27 rushing attempts and 100-plus rushing yards.

25. The Over/Under on passing touchdowns for Brady is currently listed at 2.5, with the Over posted at +160 and the Under at -200. Brady threw three or more touchdown passes in only six of 18 games this season (33.3 percent). The Seattle defense permitted just one quarterback (Philip Rivers, Week 2) to throw three or more touchdown passes against it in 18 contests this season (5.5 percent).

26. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has recorded a run of 15 or more yards in 25 of 55 career NFL starts (45.4 percent). The Over/Under on Wilson’s longest run on Sunday is currently listed at 14.5 yards (-110 both ways).

27. Wilson averaged 7.3 rushing attempts per game in 18 contests this season. The Over/Under on the Seattle quarterback’s rushing attempts for Sunday is 7.5.

28. Wilson averaged 115.3 passing yards during the first half of play in 2014 and 104.2 passing yards during the second half of play. The “Russell Wilson will have more gross passing yards in which half” prop is currently listed at first half +115, second half -135.

29. Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski recorded 78 or more receiving yards in a game nine times in 17 outings this season (52.9 percent), but Seattle’s defense limited opposing tight ends to an average of just 38.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season in 2014 (fourth-best in NFL). The Over/Under on Gronk receiving yards in currently posted at 77.5 (-110 both ways).

30. PGA golfer Phil Mickelson is averaging a fourth-round score of 69.8 over his last five starts at the Waste Management Open. Mickelson’s fourth-round score on Sunday is currently listed at +6.5 vs. Gronkowski’s total receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

31. There has only been one instance in Super Bowl history (Dallas in 1979) in which a defending champion has been listed as an underdog.

32. Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell amassed 51 or more receiving yards in 11 of 18 outings this season (61.1 percent). However, LaFell’s best numbers came when he lined up outside of the hash marks, which plays directly into the strength of the Seattle defense.

33. Wilson produced a passer rating of 95.0 in 2014 (10th in NFL), but that number dropped to 88.05 when the Seattle quarterback faced an opposing blitz. However, New England blitzed opposing quarterbacks in passing situations just 108 times during the regular season, which checked in as the third-fewest in the league.

34. 143 penalties were called against the Seahawks in 2014 while 133 penalties were called against the Patriots. The “Most Penalty Yards” prop is currently listed at Seattle -140, New England +120.

35. In the only previous encounter between Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman and New England quarterback Tom Brady, Brady threw at Sherman 10 times, completing just three passes with a touchdown and an interception. “Will Richard Sherman record an interception” is currently listed at Yes +190 and No -230.

36. For the 11th time in the last 12 Super Bowls, the starting signal-caller representing the AFC is named either Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.

37. Since 2001, Brady leads the NFL in postseason game-winning drives with eight. Wilson ranks third over that same time span with three.

38. The Super Bowl-winning quarterback has been named the game’s Most Valuable Player in six of the last eight contests. Brady is currently listed at 8/5 to win the MVP award, with Wilson posted at 7/2.

39. During the 2014 regular season, the Patriots averaged 22.6 first downs made per game (fourth in NFL) while the Seahawks averaged 20.5 first downs made (14th in NFL). On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots permitted an average of 20.6 first downs made per game (tenth-most in NFL), while the Seahawks surrendered fewer first downs made than any other team in the business (17.3 per game). New England is currently posted at -1.5 over Seattle to record more first downs in Sunday’s Super Bowl (-110 both ways).

40. Teams that scored 40 or more points in their conference championship game have gone 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in the Super Bowl.

41. The Patriots surrendered just six rushing touchdowns during the 2014 regular season (third fewest in NFL). The “Will Marshawn Lynch score a touchdown” prop is currently listed at Yes -150, No +130.

42. Golden State Warriors point guard Steph Curry is averaging 7.5 3-point attempts and 2.9 3-point conversions per game this year, with at least four 3-pointers made in 13 of 43 (30.2 percent) contests. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.0 field goal conversions per game this season, while Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka is averaging 1.77 field goal conversions per game in 2014. Curry 3-pointers made vs. the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night is +0.5 (-145) vs. total field goals made in Sunday’s Super Bowl.

43. Seattle punter Jon Ryan averaged 3.94 punts per game in 2014, with only five of 18 contests resulting in five or more punts. “Total punts by Jon Ryan” is currently listed at 4.5, with the Over posted at +120 and the Under listed at -140.

44. Seven or more Seattle players caught at least one pass in 14 of 18 games this season (77.7 percent). The “Total number of different Seahawks to have a pass reception” prop is currently listed at 7.0, with the Over posted at EVEN and the Under listed at -120.

45. The Seahawks have recorded a rushing touchdown in 27 of their last 37 games (72.9 percent). The Patriots surrendered a rushing touchdown in just seven of 18 games this season (38.8 percent), but permitted a rushing touchdown in only two of their last nine outings. The “Will Seattle record a rushing touchdown” prop is currently listed at Yes -210, No +180.

46. Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright recorded seven or more tackles in 10 of 18 games this season (55.5 percent). However, Wright should play an integral role in defending highly-targeted New England tight end Rob Gronkowski on Sunday. The Wright tackle prop is currently posted at 6.5 tackles (-110 both ways).

47. Seattle safety Kam Chancellor is currently listed at 40/1 to win the Super Bowl MVP award. In last year’s Super Bowl, Chancellor posted a monster stat line with nine tackles, one interception and two pass deflections in a 43-8 blowout win over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.

48. The Patriots and Seahawks combined to throw 16 interceptions and lose 11 fumbles during the 2014 regular season. A fumble is listed at +135 to be the first turnover of Sunday’s game, with an interception checking in at -155.

49. Brady has recorded a rushing attempt of four or more yards in just seven of his last 36 games (19.4 percent). The “Longest rush by Tom Brady” prop is currently listed at 3.5 yards, with the Over posted at +140 and the Under listed at -160.

**Udog** · 02-01-2015, 06:40 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 1

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Super Bowl XLIX betting preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks
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New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (Pick, 47.5)

Deflate-gate: Whether one views it as a burgeoning scandal or merely a lot of hot air, the the saga of underinflated footballs has dwarfed what looms as a classic showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots in in Sunday's Super Bowl XLIX at Glendale, Ariz. The Patriots have staunchly denied any wrongdoing in the controversy stemming from the AFC title game as they attempt to win their fourth Super Bowl in 14 seasons - and first in 10 years - while preventing Seattle from becoming the first repeat champion since New England won back-to-back crowns in 2003-04. The Seahawks embarrassed one future Hall of Fame quarterback by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver 43-8 a year ago and look for an encore against Tom Brady and Co. in another matchup of top-seeded teams.

The Ties That Bind: Brady already owns a number of postseason records and can join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl victories, but counterpart Russell Wilson will become the youngest QB to start two Super Bowls and the first to appear in two in his first three seasons after leading a stunning comeback in the NFC Championship Game. “Russell and Tom Brady are both great winners,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. “Tom has had a long time to prove that. Russell is at the early stages of proving that to the world. But he’s got a chance to be similar.” Carroll was head coach of New England for three seasons before he was replaced in 2000 by Bill Belichick, who has won a record 21 postseason games and joins Don Shula as the only head coaches to reach six Super Bowls.

Beast Mode(s): Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is a man of few words, accumulating fines for his refusal to speak to the media at nearly that same rate as he finds the end zone, but he is the centerpiece of Seattle's offense - to the point where teammate Doug Baldwin said the Seahawks' goal "is to make Marshawn Lynch the MVP of the Super Bowl and if we do that, obviously we're going to win." Serving a similar role for the Patriots is tight end Rob Gronkowski, a matchup nightmare at 6-6, 265 pounds who will be pitted against Seattle's Legion of Boom secondary, Gronkowski was hobbled by a high-ankle sprain in New England's loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI but came back from a serious knee injury at the end of 2013 to catch 12 touchdown passes this season, including one in each his the past five games.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened this game anywhere from a Pick to Seahawks -1 with most now offering a Pick or Seahawks +1. The total opened anywhere from 48 to 49 with most now offering 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - C Bryan Stork (Probable, knee). Seahawks - CB Richard Sherman (Probable, elbow), S Earl Thomas (Probable, shoulder), S Jeron Johnson (Probable, elbow), T Justin Britt (Probable, knee).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS, 11-7 O/U): New England has rolled up 80 points in its two postseason victories and prevailed in contrasting styles, erasing a pair of 14-point deficits behind 367 yards and three touchdowns from Brady to outlast Baltimore 35-31 despite a postseason record-low 14 yards rushing. Running back LeGarrette Blount, signed in November after he was cut loose by Pittsburgh, did the heavy lifting in the 45-7 drubbing of Indianapolis by rumbling for 148 yards and three touchdowns and the 250-pounder could be primed for a heavy workload against Seattle. Two-time Super Bowl MVP Brady has reliable weapons at his disposal with Julian Edelman (92 receptions) and Brandon LaFell (74 catches) complementing Gronkowski, who has 54 TD receptions in 65 career regular-season games. The Patriots' secondary doesn't receive the notoriety of that of Seattle, but it also features a pair of stellar cornerbacks in All-Pro Darrelle Revis and ex-Seahawk Brandon Browner.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (14-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 10-8 O/U): Seattle surrendered a total of 39 points in winning its final six regular-season contests, but Wilson showed poise beyond his years in the overtime victory against Green Bay, overcoming four interceptions to lead a pair of touchdown drives in the final four minutes to erase a 16-point halftime deficit. Wilson also is dangerous on the run, rushing for 849 yards and six scores to keep teams from becoming too preoccupied with Lynch, who amassed 157 yards and a score versus the Packers and has 48 rushing TDs in his four seasons with the Seahawks. Wilson's top targets are Doug Baldwin (66 receptions) and Jermaine Kearse, who has one TD reception in each of the two postseason wins - including the overtime game-winner in the NFC title game. Seattle has key concerns in the secondary with All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman nursing an elbow injury and hard-hitting safety Earl Thomas dealing with an ailing shoulder.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of users are backing the Patriots in the Big Game.

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**CheCheBoFumbe** · 02-01-2015, 10:44 AM

Thanks for all you do Udog. Good luck today

**Udog** · 02-01-2015, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by crswir View Post

Thanks man. I use and appreciate these posts daily.

Originally posted by CheCheBoFumbe View Post

Thanks for all you do Udog. Good luck today

You're sure welcome guys! I haven't looked to see what you guys are playing yet but good luck whatever you play today!

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