Super Bowl Plays

[roccodean]

Based on 1-5*

1* Sea/NE under 49. Will upgrade and/or have 1st half under also (esp if 24.5+).

[roccodean]

1* 1H Under 24.5

[jcindaville]

Good luck Rocco!!

[crswir]

Good luck RD!

[roccodean]

Props:
Brady under Passing yards
Consensus 265.5 now (Friday)

Wilson under 225.5 passing yards

Blount over 13.5 rush attempts

Lynch over 19 rush attempts

Longest TD under 44.5 yards

Total fumbles lost by both teams under 1.5 (-170)

3rd quater to be higher scoring than 1st quater (-130)

Long Shot Props:
1st TD of game:
Tim Wright +4000
Luke Willson +1800

[roccodean]

1H under bumped to 2*...play at 24+

[roccodean]

Long shot prop:

Pats 1st TD Develin +5000

[Dat Boi E]

Gl Rocco....

[roccodean]

Analysis on under:

My algorithm has this game at Ne 22-Seattle 21.7, hence a total of 43.7. As we know, Seattle’s defense is very good (2nd in eff vs the run and 3rd vs the pass). The Pats defense is slightly above average at 12th vs the run (effic rating) and 10th vs the pass. After Wilson’s terrible game last week, the Seahawks will be focusing on the run game and gain Wilson’s confidence back (especially in the 1st half) and will want to run the ball to eat clock and keep Brady off the field. The Hawks ran the most in the NFL this year and passes the second least. NE’s strength is exploiting other team’s weaknesses. Seattle’s only relative weakness on defense is giving up yards up the middle, so I think the Pats will try to pound the ball also. Super Bowls tend to start out slow because neither team wants to make a mistake first…In 30 out of 48 Bowls the 1st half score was less than the 2nd half including 13 out of the last 16.

Note: I do not have an opinion on the side in the game. My numbers have NE as a -0.3 favorite so the line is accurate. Advanced stats slightly favor Seattle (see below), but stats often say play against NE but Bellichick makes such good in game decisions and the Pats are so consistent at being + in turnovers that blindly betting Brady/Bellichick together hits you 58% ATS. I will be looking for opportunities in game (hoping to get one team +7 at some point) and will post on Twitter in real time.

[jcindaville]

Good luck again Rocco

Thanks for sharing all season, we will miss you till you return next football season!!

[roccodean]

Thx jc. Let's go out with a bang

[CheCheBoFumbe]

Good luck Rocco, thanks for plays and write ups

[DenJamTuck]

Good luck Rocco...

[baseballdave]

Good luck today buddy !!! I also like the unders and the Lynch over 19 rushing attempts !!!

[Sirporkie]

GL Roccco