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**Udog** · 01-15-2015, 01:37 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Seahawks open -7 for showdown with Packers

The defending Super Bowl champion is alive and well. The defending AFC champion has been ousted. And so the NFL season surges onward to the conference championship weekend, with four teams battling for the two spots in the Super Bowl.

The Seattle Seahawks certainly look the role of clubhouse leader. In Saturday’s NFC divisional playoff game, top-seeded Seattle and its super-stingy defense and opportunistic offense pulled away for a 31-17 victory over visiting Carolina, narrowly cashing as a hefty 13.5-point favorite.

Seattle has won seven in a row SU and has been almost equally as stout at the betting window, going 6-0-1 ATS in that stretch while not allowing any team to score more than the 17 Carolina mustered.

Now the Seahawks get to host the NFC Championship Game against second-seeded Green Bay. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers gut out a gimpy leg to lead a 26-21 victory laying 5.5 points at home Sunday to the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay was equally if not more fortunate to have a late replay reversal take away a Cowboys first-and-goal at the 1-yard line – perhaps questionably so on what appeared to be a spectacular Dez Bryant catch.

The Pack has won eight of its last nine SU but has been a much more middling 5-4 ATS in that span. And we’ve seen this movie before, and in the same theater: Seattle walloped visiting Green Bay 36-16 laying 4.5 points in the NFL’s regular-season opener.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, had no problem installing Seattle as 7-point chalk for Sunday's game, with a total of 46.5 points.

“We weren’t worried about hanging a touchdown for this one,” Lester said. “Everyone saw how limited Rodgers was against Dallas, and while a week to heal will help, he still won’t be anywhere close to 100 percent. Without him at full strength, I just don’t envision Green Bay leaving the Northwest with a win.”

Lester trekked familiar territory for the total, setting it at 46.5 points.

“We opened the total at exactly the same number we did when these teams met in Week 1,” he said. “I expect we'll see some over push from bettors.”

AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)

New England is in familiar territory, in yet another conference title game as it seeks its sixth Super Bowl bid and fourth title of the Tom Brady era. But the top-seeded Patriots took a hard road against the sixth-seeded Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, twice overcoming 14-point deficits, then hanging on for a 35-31 victory as a 7-point home fave.

Not including their loss in a meaningless regular-season finale to Buffalo, the Pats have won 11 of 12 games SU (8-4 ATS).

Indianapolis as a franchise is also in familiar territory, but with a very different look. Andrew Luck is at the controls, and he helped the Colts dispatch his predecessor in Indy – Peyton Manning – in a 24-13 road victory over defending AFC champ Denver. The Colts were a healthy 9.5-point underdog in the contest, yet cashed for the third straight week and are 7-1 SU in their last eight (5-2-1 ATS).

Lester said people shouldn’t sleep on the Colts this Sunday, even though the Patriots hammered Indy 42-20 as 3-point road favorites in mid-November and rolled the visiting Colts 43-22 giving 7.5 points in last year’s AFC divisional round.

“There are going to be a lot of people looking for a letdown from Indy. And it may be a genuine concern, because that was the team’s biggest win in the last handful of years,” Lester said. “But I’ll tell you what, the Patriots cannot afford to mosey through the first half of this game like they have in a few this year.

“The Colts’ defense is playing well, and you aren’t going to keep that offense from scoring,” added Lester, who set the total at 53. “This matchup was one-sided during the regular season and last year’s playoffs, but I think the Colts will be competitive.”

**Udog** · 01-15-2015, 01:37 PM

NFL line watch: 12th Man may want to wait for big Cheese move

Spread to bet now

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)

The Colts now own two playoff wins. Shoving Cincinnati to the gutter was one thing and beating Denver was cool - even if watching Peyton Manning reminded old-timers of an ancient Willie Mays falling down while trying to chase down fly balls in his final season.

The question is are the Colts just happy to be taking an extra step or do they have more than a puncher’s chance of taking down the Belichick & Brady Wrecking Co.?

The Patriots were undefeated at home this season in games that mattered and have already put 35 points on the board against a good defensive team (Baltimore). Indianapolis and Andrew Luck are hoping that the Patriots spent a good portion of their energy in the already-epic win over the Ravens, and will come out flat.

Spread to wait on

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

OK, the Packers are one bobbled ball away from being on the outside looking in, but they are here and get a chance to climb into the boiling cauldron in Seattle and try to beat the Seahawks.

The Cheeseheads couldn’t do it in the season opener (Seattle, 36-16), but that’s now ancient history. Green Bay has the best player in the league (Aaron Rodgers) and doesn’t figure to freak out like so many other visitors to the Pacific Northwest over the past few seasons.

Early money is coming in heavy on the Packers, with bettors figuring if the Panthers can hang with the Seahawks for a half, there’s an opening for the Packers. Heavy money in Green Bay’s direction might eventually shave off that half a point. So if your book is at 7.5, see how things stand later in the week.

Total to watch

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (53.5)

January weather in Foxboro usually ranges from very cold to very snowy, but the long-term forecast calls for game-time temperatures in the high 30s, and nothing coming out of the sky. That’s good for the dome Colts, and also good for Over bettors.

The Ravens and Patriots burned past the 47.5 number midway through the third quarter this past weekend, almost forcing books to hike the total on this one by a full touchdown. It might not be enough even at 53 points, especially given the way New England’s defense has taken a step back in the last half-dozen games.

**Udog** · 01-15-2015, 01:37 PM

Take it or leave it? Capping the NFL Championship rematches

Just like we experienced last year, this weekend’s slate of NFL Conference Championship action features two rematches from the regular season.

In 2013, Denver got its revenge against New England in the AFC Championship game while Seattle beat San Francisco for the second time in three meetings for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

So the big questions on everybody’s mind as we approach kickoff is will the Packers and Colts have the last laugh or will Seattle and New England reign supreme yet again?

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)

Last meeting (9/4/2014 in Seattle): Seahawks defeat Packers 36-16 in the NFL Thursday night opener as Seattle outgains Green Bay 398-255 behind 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns from running back Marshawn Lynch. Seattle goes on a 26-3 run at the beginning of the second quarter and lasts until 9:31 of the fourth quarter.

Why that game matters now

The most effective way to slow down soon-to-be MVP Aaron Rodgers and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense is by creating relentless pressure via the front four while dropping seven defenders into coverage.

Of course, this is easier said than done, but the New York Giants pulled it off during the Divisional Round of the 2012 playoffs at Lambeau Field and the Seahawks executed this game plan to perfection against Rodgers back in Week 1 as well as at the beginning of the 2012 regular season.

Seattle averaged 2.62 sacks and 1.75 turnovers forced per game at CenturyLink Field this season while holding Rodgers to his second-lowest QB rating of the 2014 campaign (81.5).

And don’t for one second underestimate the crowd noise in Seattle Sunday, which is just one reason why CenturyLink is the toughest venue in the business to score a road win.

Why that game doesn’t matter now

If there’s one chink in the Seattle defense that Green Bay is capable of exploiting it’s the Seahawks’ run defense.

While Pete Carroll’s crew finished the regular season ranked third against the run (81.5 yds/gm), Seattle surrendered an average of 138.7 yards per game on the ground in its four losses this year, which is a staggering increase from the 62.4 yards per game permitted through the team’s 12 victories.

Eddie Lacy (12 carries, 34 yards) was a non-factor in Week 1 against Seattle as well as through Green Bay’s first four contests. But the Alabama product came on strong down the stretch and will need to have a big outing if the Packers plan on having any chance of advancing to Arizona for the Super Bowl.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)

Last meeting (11/16/2014): Patriots defeat Colts 42-20 as New England converts 9 of 11 third down opportunities en route to 503 total yards of offense. Unknown running back Jonas Gray leads the way for the Patriots with 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries.

Why that game matters now

The New England Patriots were a three-point dog in hostile territory during a primetime Sunday night encounter at Lucas Oil Stadium, and wound up covering the number by 25 points.

So now that the venue is switching to a stadium where quarterback Tom Brady has gone 49-7 over the last six seasons, why should we believe the result will be any different?

Indianapolis’ run defense ranked 18th in the league during the regular season with the club surrendering over 100 rushing yards in seven of eight road contests. And if there’s one thing we know about head coach Bill Belichick, it’s that he’s a master at exploiting the opposition’s weaknesses.

Why that game doesn’t matter now

Of the 246 rushing yards New England amassed against Indianapolis back in November, 201 were racked up by Gray, which is a real head-scratcher because Gray has carried the ball just 20 times since.

But the real angle here is the fact that this is not the regular season. Take note that for as dominant as the Patriots have been during the Brady-Belichick era, the organization is just 3-11 ATS over its last 14 playoff games and 0-5 ATS over its last five Conference Championship games.

So is it really a surprise to see that this number has already been bet down from New England -7.5 to as low as New England -6?

**Udog** · 01-15-2015, 01:38 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 18

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NFC Championship Preview: Packers at Seahawks
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Green Bay Packers (13-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-4)

Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, at CenturyLink Field, Seattle -- TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Chris Myers

*Keys to the game: It's easy to dismiss the Packers' 36-16 loss in Seattle to open the 2014 season as being more than four months ago, when both were far different teams than the versions that will do battle Sunday. But for Green Bay, the demons of that primetime drubbing could quickly resurface with a slow start. The Packers played scared offensively in Week 1, including not a single target against Pro Bowl CB Richard Sherman.

QB Aaron Rodgers enters the rematch coming off an impressive second-half performance against Dallas on a strained left calf. How well he can move will be critical because the Cowboys proved Rodgers is an entirely different animal when hemmed in the pocket. Seattle plays fast and aggressive at home, and any lack of mobility will be blood in the water. The counter is Eddie Lacy, who plowed his way to 101 yards on 19 carries against Dallas.

Seattle's third-ranked run defense can be hit up the middle -- Carolina's Jonathan Stewart averaged 5.4 yards per carry last week -- and chewing off positive yardage on first and second down will set Rodgers up to attack the Seahawks in manageable passing situations.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson's 109.6 passer rating in five playoff games is the highest in NFL history, and the bouts of inaccuracy he suffered through during midseason have largely disappeared during the team's seven-game winning streak. He is running the zone read well with RB Marshawn Lynch, who ripped off 110 yards on 20 carries in Week 1. Green Bay struggled with DeMarco Murray last week (123 yards on 25 carries) and if Lynch gets untracked early it plays directly into Wilson's hands at home.

For as pedestrian as the Seahawks offense often appears, Wilson does strike quickly against man coverage, particularly down the seam. The Packers racked up four sacks and eight QB hits last week and stopping the run to take advantage of Seattle's pass protection issues is imperative.

*Matchup to watch -- Packers WR Randall Cobb vs. Seahawks CB Jeremy Lane: With Sherman and Byron Maxwell patrolling the outside, Cobb was targeted nine times with six catches in Week 1 -- when Lane was sidelined by a groin injury.

*Player spotlight -- Seahawks WR Jermaine Kearse: After a modest 38 receptions during the regular season, Kearse exploded for three catches for 129 yards including a 63-yard touchdown last week. He has a touchdown in three consecutive playoff games.

*Fast facts: The Packers have won both previous playoff meetings (2003, 2007). ... The Seahawks have an eight-game postseason home winning streak. ... Green Bay's .620 all-time playoff winning percentage (31-19) is the highest in NFL history.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Seahawks are 25-2 at home the past two seasons, including a Week 1 thumping of the Packers. Lacy can set the table for Rodgers and Green Bay can move the ball against Seattle's top-ranked defense. But Rodgers not firing on all cylinders robs Green Bay of the 100 percent horsepower it needs to upset the defending champs on the road.

*Our pick: Seahawks 27-23

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**Udog** · 01-15-2015, 01:39 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 18

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AFC Championship Preview: Colts at Patriots
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Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)

Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

*Keys to the game: Patriots coach Bill Belichick said he sees no weakness in Colts QB Andrew Luck's game right now, but there is one obvious advantage tilting the scales toward the Patriots besides home-field advantage -- Tom Brady is going to his fourth consecutive AFC Championship Game and holds the NFL record with 19 playoff wins. Luck has two, both coming in these playoffs.

Belichick is known to unveil a new wrinkle or three as the stakes elevate -- right, John Harbaugh? -- but he might be wiser sticking with what worked in New England's 42-20 win at Indy earlier this season. That was riding the running game, and since-buried Jonas Gray, to eat the clock and give Luck the rightful impression that he needed to hustle to keep the Colts close.

Brady and Co. put up a season-high 28 points in the second half of that game, but the quarterback played more of a bit part than usual. The Patriots have averaged nearly 40 rushing attempts, 200 yards and four ground scores in three previous blowout wins over Andrew Luck's Colts. Three of Indy's final four opponents of the season ran the ball 32 times or more.

For the Colts to counter, they'll need to take the Patriots out of their comfortable Sunday evening stroll, putting up points early and often. Luck and the Colts are not known for shifting into higher gears in the first quarter -- they have just seven points in two playoff games after averaging 6.7 points in the first quarter in 16 regular-season games.

The best option for quick points is WR T.Y. Hilton, who irritated the Denver Broncos into penalties and mental cramps last week. However, Hilton will be shadowed again by CB Darrelle Revis, who helped limit Hilton to three catches for 24 yards in November.

*Matchup to watch: Colts RB Daniel Herron vs. Patriots run defense. New England was chopped up by Justin Forsett and the Ravens last week. The Patriots play bend-don't-break and will count on their front seven to contain Herron, who did not touch the ball in the Nov. 16 meeting. Colts running backs combined for 13 carries and four yards in the previous meeting.

*Player spotlight: Patriots C Brian Stork. The only player not to practice for the team at midweek, Stork has a right knee injury that took him out of last week's divisional playoff game. The rookie fourth-round pick was given plenty of praise and credit for helping to solidify an offensive line that struggled mightily in the first month of the season. RG Ryan Wendell, who is light and easily moved, would bump inside to the center spot, where he started the previous two seasons, while inconsistent backup Josh Kline likely would play right guard if Stork sits.

*Fast facts: The Colts have a 2-7 record at Gillette Stadium and a 12-25 overall road record against the Patriots. ... New England is third in the NFL with 422 yards in the playoffs. The Colts are averaging 423 in two wins this postseason. ... This is the 11th AFC title game for the Patriots, who are 7-3. ... The Patriots would tie the Cowboys and Steelers with their eighth Super Bowl appearance with a win Sunday.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

It would not be a surprise to see Belichick and Brady call for the changeup and come out gunning to set up the run. For the Colts to be in the game into the fourth quarter, Luck must throw strikes all game long and continue his MVP-caliber effort by stacking sixes with the Patriots.

*Our pick: Patriots 35-25

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**Udog** · 01-15-2015, 01:40 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Indianapolis at New England
The Colts (6-3 SU on the road) head to New England on Sunday to face a Patriots team that is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home games versus a team with a winning road record. New England is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: New England (-7). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 18

Game 301-302: Green Bay at Seattle (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 143.240; Seattle 147.300
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+7 1/2); Under

Game 303-304: Indianapolis at New England (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 131.803; New England 143.578
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 57
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Over

NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 18

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GREEN BAY (13 - 4) at SEATTLE (13 - 4) - 1/18/2015, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SEATTLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) - 1/18/2015, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 166-128 ATS (+25.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 105-75 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sun, Jan. 18

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, 3:05 ET - NFC Championship Game

Green Bay
1-8 ATS as an underdog
1-5 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points
2-5 ATS against NFC West division opponents
98-66 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders

Seattle
16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
10-3 ATS against conference opponents
13-3 ATS off a home win
13-4 OVER in home games against NFC North division opponents

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, 6:40 ET - AFC Championship Game

Indianapolis
10-3 ATS against conference opponents
18-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
27-13 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

New England
2-9 ATS as a #1 seed in the playoffs
15-21 ATS after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game
26-12 OVER in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
32-16 OVER after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored

NFL

Conference Championships

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Trend Report
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3:05 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay's last 18 games on the road
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Green Bay

6:40 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England's last 14 games at home

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**Udog** · 01-17-2015, 09:45 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Packers (13-4) @ Seahawks (13-4)-- Last seven NFC title games were all decided by 7 or less points, with visitor winning three of last four. Green Bay is 12-0 on grass, 1-4 on turf, including 36-16 (+5.5) loss here in Week 1 Thursday night game, when Seattle ran for 207 yards, outgained Pack by 143 yards and had 12-yard edge in field position. Pack is 0-3 as an underdog this year; Rodgers' calf not being 100% doesn't help. Seattle won its last seven games (6-0-1 vs spread); they've allowed three TDs in last four games, while defense scored two TDs of their own. #1 seeds in NFC are 4-2 vs spread in their last six NFC title games; underdogs are 4-2-1 in last seven NFC title tilts.

Colts (13-5) @ Patriots (13-4)-- New England scored 41.2 ppg in winning last five series games; they ran ball for 244 yards in 42-20 win at Indy in Week 11, with RB Gray spark in an offense that had 33 first downs, scoring six TDs on nine drives in game that Patriots led only 14-10 at half. Indy won three in row, seven of last eight games; this is their 4th road game in five weeks. Colts are 1-2 as underdogs; their last three losses were by 17-22-35 points. Home team won seven of last eight AFC title games; #1 seeds in AFC won last four games in this spot. Since 1990, favorites are 17-13 vs spread in conference title games that were a rematch from a regular season game.

**Udog** · 01-17-2015, 09:46 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

Rain, winds expected to hamper NFL Conference Championships

The only thing that looks to dampen the excitement of the NFL Conference Championship games Sunday is the weather. Both games are expected to be hampered by high winds and large amounts of rain.

Heavy rain amounting to 20-35 millimeters is expected to fall on Saturday in Seattle. Rain is expected to let up Sunday, but light precipitation is expected throughout the day.

Winds are expected to be blowing hard at CenturyLink Field as well, blowing between 13-16 miles per hour towards the south endzone throughout the game.

Gillette Stadium will be less windy than its Northwestern counterpart, but rain is expected to be heavier for gametime.

Rain is expected to start in the early afternoon in Foxbouough and fall non-stop through the AFC title game. Rainfall is expected to amount to between 20-30 mm with winds gusting upwards of 5 mph.

**Udog** · 01-17-2015, 09:48 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Championship Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)

Packers’ Yards after the catch vs. Seahawks’ YAC allowed

Aaron Rodgers proved that a one-legged man does have a chance in an ass-kicking contest, putting on a gutsy performance in the NFC Divisional Round. Rodgers, limited by a torn calf muscle, was stellar in the second half versus the Dallas Cowboys, but his ability to move around in the pocket and the lack of zip on his deep throws were very evident. It’s why Jordy Nelson only had 22 yards on two catches last Sunday.

Since shifting to a shotgun/pistol heavy offense, the Packers have relied a lot on yards after the catch. Defenses are guarding against the deep ball, leaving underneath routes and short passes with little resistance. Green Bay is third in the NFL in YAC, tacking on an additional 6.39 yards per reception and picking up almost 54 percent of their total receiving yards after the catch.

The Seahawks can’t help by salivate when sizing up A-Rod’s wonky leg. Seattle's rush not only can close in on passers in a heartbeat - sacking Rodgers three times as well as a forced fumble for a safety in Week 1 - but this defense allowed the second fewest yards after the catch this season. Opponents mustered just 96.3 YAC a game before the Seahawks torrid-tacklers wiped them out.

Seattle was also tops in shutting down the big play, giving up only 14 passes of 25 yards or more all season. With the Packers' long bombs all but defused, thanks to Rodgers’ calf injury, the Seahawks can focus on shutting down the short looks and jumping those passing lanes. Kam Chancellor's 90-yard interception return for six points against the Panthers last week was a perfect example of this.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)

Colts’ revved-up run defense vs. Patriots’ o-line issues

The Patriots have run up and down the Colts in their recent meetings. New England is averaging 199.7 yards on the ground over the three games against Indianapolis with Andrew Luck and its quarterback, going back to 2012. The Pats have scored a total of 12 rushing touchdowns in that span, including a monster 246-yard, four-touchdown day on the ground in Week 11’s 42-20 thumping of the Colts on the road.

Running the ball on Indianapolis may not be as easy in the AFC Championship. A big reason has to do with the Patriots playing musical chairs on the offensive line since rookie center Bryan Stork went down with a knee injury in the second half of last week’s win against Baltimore. New England is well equipped to absorb the loss of the center – the most underrated position in football betting – sliding current right guard and former center Ryan Wendell to the middle. That shift, however, leaves the right guard position up in the air and throws a wrench in Bill Belichick’s beloved jumbo set, which has squashed the Colts in past meetings.

It’s a minor move that could have a major impact, due to the fact that New England has been able to blow up defenses with runs to the right side. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Patriots averaged 5.71 Adjusted Line Yards when running off the right guard, which ranked second highest in the NFL. It’s a go-to side when the team desperately needs to pick up some ground gains and it might not be there Sunday.

On top of that, the Colts have put on their big boy pants when it comes to stuffing the run in recent weeks. The return of big-bodied defensive lineman Arthur Jones helps, especially drawing double teams and freeing up other tacklers. Jones missed the game against New England in November. Versus the Bengals in the Wild Card Round, the Colts stumped Cincinnati for only 110 yards. They locked down the Broncos to just 88 yards last weekend after Denver rumbled for an average of 145 yards per game in the final seven weeks of the season.

“We’re playing better run defense now than we ever have, so that’s a positive,” head coach Chuck Pagano told the media. “We’ve got to prepare the same way we prepared last week. We’ve got to do a better job because if we’re not able to stop the run, we’re not going to have a chance.”

**Udog** · 01-17-2015, 11:05 PM

NFL

Conference Championships

Packers failing to cover on turf this season

If you're searching for an edge in capping the NFC Championship Game between Green Bay and Seattle, look no further than the turf of CenturyLink Field.

The Seahawks have long enjoyed home field advantage thanks to the vaunted "12th man," but it's the playing surface that could create a major cause for concern for Packers bettors. Green Bay has played five games on FieldTurf this season and have failed to cover in each of those matchups. The Packers went 9-2-1 against the spread in games played on grass this year.

Predictably, the reigning Super Bowl champions have fared much bettor on the artificial surface. The 'Hawks are 6-3-1 ATS on turf after squeaking out a cover over Carolina at home Saturday.

The Greek opened Seattle as 7-point home faves for the game with a total of 48.

Over/Under 271.5 passing yards for Aaron Rodgers

The NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks is fastly approaching and if you're looking to get in on some prop bet action, TopBet.eu has you covered.

Do you think Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will have a big day? If so, the sportsbook is offering a prop of Over/Under 271.5 total passing yards from the California native. The first and only time these teams met this season was in Week 1 where Richard Sherman's defense stifled Rodgers, limiting him to 189 passing yards.

Patriots have been Luck's kryptonite

The general consensus around the league is that Andrew Luck is on the path to greatness as an NFL quarterback, but there's one upper echelon team he has to get past before he can achieve that: the New England Patriots.

The Stanford product has played the Patriots three times in his career and has lost by at least 21 points each time. After topping the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round, Luck and the Colts will try and get some redemption Sunday when they face Tom Brady's crew once again in the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

In the aforementioned three contests, Indy has been outscored 144-66. Each game has gone above the total by an average of 10 points.

The Patriots finished the season at 9-7 against the spread and an Over/Under mark of 9-7. The Colts were the second best spread play during the 2014-15 campaign with a mark of 10-5-1 ATS and a 9-7 O/U record, but head into the game going Under the total in six straight outings.

New England finds themselves as touchdown favorites for the game with the total sitting at 53.5.

Seahawks beating up on weaker QBs since Week 7

The Seattle Seahawks looked like themselves once again in the middle of the 2014-15 campaign, but one particular stat shows a major difference in their past opponents compared to the offense they'll be facing off against Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Since Week 7, signal callers who have faced the reigning champs had a combined total quarterback rating of 53.1 - the third worst mark in the NFL in that stretch. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the owner of a 82.6 quarterback rating.

Rodgers himself has admitted he's far from 100 percent due to a nagging calf injury, but the California product was still able to throw for 316 yards with three touchdowns and no picks while finishing the game with a quarterback rating of 125.4.

The majority of books opened the 'Hawks as touchdown faves, but that's since been bumped up to -7.5. The total is sitting at 46.5.

Rodgers struggling on the road vs. top defenses

The Seattle Seahawks are known for their powerhouse defense and have dominated teams once again this season. According to recent trends, that could spell trouble for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.

Rodgers faced the top five scoring defenses on the road three times this year (Week 1 at Seattle, Week 3 at Detroit and Week 15 at Buffalo) and averaged just 179 yards, combining for his three worst quarterback ratings of the campaign. The California native threw two touchdowns and had three interceptions in those matchups.

Oddsmakers have set the Pack as +7.5 road underdogs for the game with the total sitting at 46.

Belichick bettors outmatched in playoff rematches

The New England Patriots are a stellar 19-8 in the postseason under Bill Belichick, but all eight of their losses have come against opponents they have played in the regular season.

During those eight regular season games New England was 5-3 straight-up and 4-4 against the spread, while averaging 30.5 points per game.

During the second meeting of the teams in the postseason, the Pats are 0-8 SU and ATS while averaging just 17.9 points.

That decrease in points, an average of 12.6 less points in the playoff games, has also increased unders for the Pats. In those eight regular season games, New England has a 6-2 over/under record compared to 4-4 in one-and-done scenarios.

The Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots opponents this week, lost to New England in Week 11 42-20. However, since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came to Indy, the team is 12-0 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in "revenge games."

**Udog** · 01-17-2015, 11:09 PM

NFL Championship Sunday betting stats and trends

When it comes to the playoffs, the final four has a magical aura. Whether it’s March Madness, the college football playoffs or pro football, it’s what captivates fans the majority of the time.

The NFL’s version of the Final Four kicks off with Sunday’s Championship Games, where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets fifteen times in 48 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens’ victory over the New England Patriots at Foxboro in 2013, and the New York Giants’ win at the San Francisco 49ers in 2012, when both teams went on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the championship games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season, we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

Note: all results are either ATS (against the spread) or SU (straight up) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

Been there, done that

Three of the four head coaches own the luxury of mentoring teams in championship games – New England’s Bill Belichick, Seattle’s Pete Carroll and the Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.

Carroll and McCarthy rode their only title game appearances to the Super Bowl, winning and covering the spread in each of their championship games.

Belichick brings a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS slate in championship affairs, including five straight pointspread failures in his last five games. He is also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points in divisional round games.

What a rush

Despite the no-huddle, fast-break passing attacks gaining favor in the NFL these days, ask any head coach and he’ll tell you running the football is tantamount to success in the league. This is especially true during the playoffs.

It’s no coincidence that since the Giants’ 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 22 of the last 28 straight-up playoff winners rushed the ball for 100 or more yards in the victory.

In fact, teams who have managed to out-rush their opponent are 22-12 SU and 22-11-1 ATS in title games. The six teams who managed to rush for more than 165 yards (1997 Green Bay Packers, 1999 Denver Broncos, 2000 Tennessee Titans, 2006 Seattle Seahawks, 2007 Chicago Bears and 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers) won and covered all six contests.

While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only the Seahawks surrender less than 100 running yards per contest.

The Packers surrender the most yards on the ground, allowing 121.4 YPG.

It’s what’s trending

• Conference championship teams off a road win (Indianapolis) that was preceded by a home win, are 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS since 1998, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of four or more points.

• Ten of 15 championship games with a total set at 46 or more points have played over the total.

• New England is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games versus AFC South opponents.

• Seattle is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five home games versus NFC North opponents.

• Colts QB Andrew Luck is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog in his NFL career versus opponents with a win percentage of more than .750.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-18-2015, 02:47 AM

Maybe this will help with your total handicapping:

Total Talk - Championships

January 17, 2015

Divisional Playoffs Recap

Bettors saw a stalemate (2-2) last week in the totals market and it’s fair to say that there was something for everyone. The weekend began with a “never in doubt” winner as the Patriots outlasted the Ravens 35-31 in a shootout. In the nightcap, many expected a low-scoring game in the Seahawks-Panthers matchup, but the two teams converted some big plays and managed to do enough to cash the ‘over.’

On Sunday, the infamous “reversal” in the Cowboys-Packers game helped Green Bay advance but it also crushed ‘over’ tickets and kept ‘under’ winners alive. The last game of the weekend was probably the most bizarre as the Colts upended the Broncos 24-13 on the road. I’m not surprised by the result but seeing Denver score the least amount of points this past weekend is something nobody could’ve predicted.

Through eight playoff games this January, the ‘under’ owns a 4-3-1 record.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two championship games last year and is on a 6-2 (75%) run the last four seasons.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Denver 26 New England 16 57, UNDER
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, UNDER
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, UNDER
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 at Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 at Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, UNDER
2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, OVER
2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 42, UNDER
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER

Seattle played in last year’s NFC Championship, and that outcome barely stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 40 ½ points. Green Bay has played in two title games over the past seven seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 with the Packers scoring 20 and 21 points.

New England has played in the past three AFC title games and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three games. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two trips to the title game, the last coming in the 2009 season when Peyton Manning was the starting quarterback.

Sunday, January 18

Last week's trip to the betting counter didn't turn out well and losing double the action on the Carolina-Seattle matchup certainly didn’t help the bankroll, which is now in the red for about a nickel ($520) after a 1-4 mark in the Divisional Playoffs. After crunching all the numbers, I feel the books put out good numbers for the title games and both totals will be very tight. My thoughts, fearless predictions and scores are listed below. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

NFC Championship - Green Bay at Seattle

The total on this game opened at 47 and it’s dropped to 46 ½ points at the majority of betting shops as of Saturday.

In Week 1, Seattle blasted Green Bay 36-16 at home and the ‘over’ (47) cashed with a late surge (20 points) in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks ran for 207 yards while their defense held QB Aaron Rodgers to 189 passing yards.

Even though a lot has changed since the two teams met in early September, it might not make a difference when you handicap this game because the status of quarterback Aaron Rodger remains a concern. Despite dealing with a calf injury, he threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-21 win over the Cowboys last week.

For total purposes, the Packers had nine possessions and they scored five times (3TDs, 2 FGs) while running out the clock in the last one. Can Green Bay produce that effort against a better defense, on the road and with a quarterback that isn’t 100 percent?

Seattle’s defense is ranked first in points per game (15.9) and yards allowed (272.7) but some pundits are questioning the competition. It’s a very fair point and if it should be noted that Carolina put up more total yards (362-348) and rushing yards (132-100) than the Seahawks last week. The story of the game was two key interceptions by Cam Newton and Seattle’s 7-of-13 performance on third down.

When it comes down to betting totals in the playoffs, Seattle has been a tough team to figure out. Since QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll joined forces, the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in six playoff games.

Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed 16.8 PPG during this span, which makes you believe they’re a good ‘under’ look. However, Seattle has averaged 28.6 PPG and that number includes scores from Seattle’s defense and special teams. I mention that because two of the ‘over’ winners were both helped with scores from those units, which included last week’s 31-17 win over Carolina.

Fearless Prediction: I’m coming in with the ‘under’ (46.5) in the game and ‘under’ 26.5 in Seattle’s team total as well. I was a little surprised this wasn’t the late game on Sunday and I think a lot of people are overlooking the 12:05 p.m. PT start, which I believe favors Green Bay. I can’t see the Packers wanting to speed this game up due to Rodgers calf and we all know that Seattle likes to pound the football. Rain is expected in the forecast, which could be trouble. Barring a slew of defensive touchdowns and big plays, I don’t see the Seahawks scoring more than 24 points in this game. I expect a tight competitive affair with the clock running early and often.

Seattle 24 Green Bay 20

AFC Championship - Indianapolis at New England

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 53 on this matchup and it’s as high as 54 ½ points at some shops as of Saturday. If you put a lot of stock into recent head-to-head history and you believe those trends hold true this Sunday, then you’re buying New England and the ‘over’ in this matchup.

2014 – New England 42 at Indianapolis 20 – OVER 58.5
2013 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 – OVER 51.5
2012 – New England 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 – OVER 54

Since QB Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, the Patriots have dealt out some serious punishment on the youngster. He’s been picked off eight times in three games against the Patriots and can’t seem to figure out the schemes that Bill Belichick and company throw at him. Defensively, the unit has been just as worse as Luck and equally deserving of criticism.

Including the three matchups above, New England has seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 in its last 10 games against AFC South opponents. The Patriots have averaged 38 PPG during this span, which goes back to November of 2010. In case you’re wondering, New England has won all 10 of these games too.

Since Luck started in 2012 with the Colts, the team is 2-4 versus the AFC East and the ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.

The question you have as bettors is to do you toss out the recent encounters and believe Luck and the Colts have turned the corner after last week’s win against Denver or was that largely due to Denver hiding QB Peyton Manning’s injury? Thirteen points is 13 points and on the road, that’s still a very impressive effort. Even more impressive is that Colts have held four of their last five opponents to 13 or less. Similar to Seattle, many will question the competition that Indy’s defense has faced.

I believed that New England was going to score on Baltimore last week and it did (35 points) but I was surprised to see the Ravens drop 31 on the Patriots defense, which looked sharp this season especially at home. Prior to last week’s performance, New England held opponents to 16.8 PPG in its first eight games at Foxboro.

The longest pending total streak entering this Sunday lies with the Colts, who have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six games.

Fearless Prediction: The weather could get ugly in this game and that usually favors the offense. I do believe not having starting center Bryan Stork will affect New England, who only gained 14 yards rushing last week against the Ravens. The Patriots have proven they can run on Indy in the past but without Stork, those numbers might dip. I also have to believe that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows he can’t win a shootout so he’s going to bleed the clock or at least try to do so. This number seems a tad inflated to me based on past history, and I’m going against it. I’m leaning to the ‘under’ 54 in the game and the ‘under’ in the team total for both the Colts (24) and Patriots (30).

New England 27 Indianapolis 23

**Udog** · 01-18-2015, 10:25 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

Bettors still getting behind Seahawks

Bettors are still getting behind the Seattle Seahawks as we get closer to kickoff for the NFC Championship game.

The Seahawks have moved to 8-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers at most books and the number Seattle -8.5 can even be found at some places.

Seattle was a 4.5-point favorite in their meeting back in Week 1.

If Pats go run heavy, no one knows who’ll be running

Last year in the postseason, Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount bulldozed the Colts for 166 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a 20-plus-point win. Little more than two months ago, Patriots running back Jonas Gray gained 201 yards and four touchdowns in another 20-plus-point win over Indy.

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NFL Conference Championship Trends and Indexes - 1/18

NFL Conference Championship Trends and Indexes - 1/18

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