Tweet
2* Denver over Indy
Play at -7 or better. I am waiting to see if I can get 6.5 because sharp shops are leaning toward 6.5 as of now (Friday).
This has blowout city written all over it! The Colts are pretenders. They cannot run the ball (27th in run effic) and definitely won't be able to run vs the Denver def that is 3rd in run def effic. The Colts will try to throw, but Denver is 5th in pass defense effic. Indy's defense is below average. They are 19th vs the run (effic) and 10th vs the pass (effic). The Colts have had the 5th easiest schedule this year (vs the Broncos having the 4th hardest). They only beat 2 playoff teams (Bengals and Ravens who are both pretenders) and both were at home. They aren't the same team on the road. They give up 28 PPG on the road vs 22 PPG at home. Indy's pass rush isn't bad (9th in adjusted sack rate) but faces the best OL in football based on adjust sack rate. It is going to be 40+ degrees so I not concerned with Manning and the cold. Manning has not looked as good in recent weeks which is why this is only a 2*.
1* NE over Balt
Play at -7 or better. I am waiting to see if I can get 6.5 because sharp shops are leaning toward 6.5 as of now (Friday).
With all the "Ravens can beat NE" rhetoric in the media I feel like I am actually being contrarian by betting the Pats. The past years mean nothing to me. Let's look at this Ravens team this year, especially most recently. Last week they beat Pitt, but were outgained by 90 yards (equal in YPP) but they were +2 in TO's. They needed to beat Cleveland the last week of the season to get into the playoffs and were actually losing 10-3 in the 4th quarter vs a QB that will be bagging groceries next year (Shaw). In week 16 they were also playing for their playoff lives and lost to Houston with another QB (Keenum) who will be checking you out at Dick's Sporting Goods next week. Week 15 they barely beat the lowly Jags (20-12). They had a good win in Miami week 14 but that is when Miami was in a free fall. And in week 13 they lost to the Chargers at home giving up 34 points. Baltimore's SOS is 3rd easiest and the Pats is 6th hardest. Baltimore has no run game (20th in eff) and the Pats def is 12th. In the air the Pats are 10th vs the pass and Revis will be sticking Smith like glue. Baltimore's pass defense is their weakness and Brady is going to exploit this (unlike Pitt did last week).
1* Seattle -10 (-120)
I am going to keep this simple, Carolina cannot score enough to keep this close vs a Seahawks team that is 2nd in effic vs the run and 3rd vs the pass. Carolina's offense is 17th in running and 23rd in passing. Defensively, the Panthers are 22nd vs the run and face the best running team in the league based on efficiency. Carolina has been hot lately, but they have faced some of the worst teams in the league. This is blowout city!
Play at -7 or better. I am waiting to see if I can get 6.5 because sharp shops are leaning toward 6.5 as of now (Friday).
This has blowout city written all over it! The Colts are pretenders. They cannot run the ball (27th in run effic) and definitely won't be able to run vs the Denver def that is 3rd in run def effic. The Colts will try to throw, but Denver is 5th in pass defense effic. Indy's defense is below average. They are 19th vs the run (effic) and 10th vs the pass (effic). The Colts have had the 5th easiest schedule this year (vs the Broncos having the 4th hardest). They only beat 2 playoff teams (Bengals and Ravens who are both pretenders) and both were at home. They aren't the same team on the road. They give up 28 PPG on the road vs 22 PPG at home. Indy's pass rush isn't bad (9th in adjusted sack rate) but faces the best OL in football based on adjust sack rate. It is going to be 40+ degrees so I not concerned with Manning and the cold. Manning has not looked as good in recent weeks which is why this is only a 2*.
1* NE over Balt
Play at -7 or better. I am waiting to see if I can get 6.5 because sharp shops are leaning toward 6.5 as of now (Friday).
With all the "Ravens can beat NE" rhetoric in the media I feel like I am actually being contrarian by betting the Pats. The past years mean nothing to me. Let's look at this Ravens team this year, especially most recently. Last week they beat Pitt, but were outgained by 90 yards (equal in YPP) but they were +2 in TO's. They needed to beat Cleveland the last week of the season to get into the playoffs and were actually losing 10-3 in the 4th quarter vs a QB that will be bagging groceries next year (Shaw). In week 16 they were also playing for their playoff lives and lost to Houston with another QB (Keenum) who will be checking you out at Dick's Sporting Goods next week. Week 15 they barely beat the lowly Jags (20-12). They had a good win in Miami week 14 but that is when Miami was in a free fall. And in week 13 they lost to the Chargers at home giving up 34 points. Baltimore's SOS is 3rd easiest and the Pats is 6th hardest. Baltimore has no run game (20th in eff) and the Pats def is 12th. In the air the Pats are 10th vs the pass and Revis will be sticking Smith like glue. Baltimore's pass defense is their weakness and Brady is going to exploit this (unlike Pitt did last week).
1* Seattle -10 (-120)
I am going to keep this simple, Carolina cannot score enough to keep this close vs a Seahawks team that is 2nd in effic vs the run and 3rd vs the pass. Carolina's offense is 17th in running and 23rd in passing. Defensively, the Panthers are 22nd vs the run and face the best running team in the league based on efficiency. Carolina has been hot lately, but they have faced some of the worst teams in the league. This is blowout city!
Comment