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**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:30 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Patriots open -7 for showdown with Ravens

The New England Patriots are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so it would make sense that they would be happy about playing host to the AFC’s No. 6 seed in a divisional playoff game Saturday.

But when that team is the Baltimore Ravens, well, it probably tempers the Pats’ enthusiasm. Three times, John Harbaugh’s squad has trekked to Foxboro, Mass., during the playoffs, and twice Baltimore has gotten the victory, most recently in a 28-13 upset as an 8-point underdog in the AFC title game two years ago.

The Ravens (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) certainly have some momentum, rolling past archrival Pittsburgh 30-17 as a 3-point road pup in Saturday’s wild-card playoff game. New England (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) had a first-round bye, after losing a meaningless regular-season finale 17-9 against Buffalo as a 4-point fave.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, installed the Pats as 7-point chalk.

“We’ve seen this story before, and we’ve seen the underdog come out on top. John Harbaugh always has a good game plan in place for the Pats,” Lester said. “We initially bumped the spread a half point because of some decent action on New England, but that’s when the ‘dog players pounced on Baltimore. Early signs indicate the wise guys will be split on this spread.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5)

Carolina (8-8-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) still doesn’t have a winning record, but the NFC’s No. 4 seed reached the divisional playoff round by fending off No. 5 seed Arizona 27-16 Saturday as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Panthers have won five in a row (3-2 ATS) – and needed to win all of them to keep their season going.

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) had a bye as the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and the Seahawks are red-hot SU and ATS, having won six in a row while going 5-0-1 ATS in that stretch. Pete Carroll’s squad capped the regular season with a 20-6 home win over Arizona laying 11 points, and during its current run, Seattle has held five of six foes to seven points or less.

“The least-sexy matchup of the weekend gets the highest number, and some bettors will shy away from this one,” Lester said. “This is a huge spread for the divisional round, and I do expect it will drop at some point. What the Panthers do offensively, they actually are somewhat built to beat the stout Seattle defense. But if Cam Newton plays like he did against Arizona, they’ll get pummeled.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Dallas, in the playoffs for the first time in five years, rallied to beat Detroit 24-20 Sunday but fell short at the betting window as 6-point chalk. Now the third-seeded Cowboys (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS), who have won five in a row SU (4-1 ATS), get to go on the road, where they are an impeccable 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this season.

Green Bay (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) had a bye as the NFC’s No. 2 seed, after closing the season with a 30-20 home win over Detroit giving 8.5 points. The Packers are on a 7-1 SU run (5-3 ATS) heading into Sunday’s divisional contest.

“Well, the media got the matchup it wanted, and we have two teams the public loves to play, so action will be heavy,” Lester said. “I would’ve liked to open this at a touchdown, but we anticipate early action on the Pack, and we know we will have our normal massive allotment of players on Dallas.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

Fourth-seeded Indianapolis (12-5 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) dumped Cincinnati 26-10 laying 3.5 points at home in a Sunday wild-card game. That set up a rematch next Sunday with Denver, which beat the Colts 31-24 in the regular-season opener, with Indy cashing as an 8-point road pup.

Denver (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS), the No. 2 seed, had a bye after capping the regular season with a 47-14 trouncing of Oakland laying 16.5 points at home.

“We went with the safe number again here, but I expect we will see some upward push from the bettors, as they never shy away from Denver,” Lester said. “Unlike the Bengals, the Broncos actually have some pass rushers who can get to Andrew Luck. I think the Colts certainly have a chance at Mile High, but we were all on the same page and very confident in setting this spread.”

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:30 PM

NFL line watch: Cowboys backers keep an eye on Wisconsin weather

Spread to bet on now

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

“Front of the line bettors” are on Baltimore in this one, but it appears they may be shooting at shadows. Yes, the Ravens looked good in taking care of the Steelers in Pittsburgh. And yes, Baltimore has had recent success against the Patriots in Foxboro. And yes, the Patriots lost their last regular-season game. But like a spin of the roulette wheel, this is an independent trial.

New England has been in dry dock for a week and has had time to handle some needed repairs to its offensive line, which was a bit shoddy over the final month. And when the Pats played Baltimore over the last few years, New England was crippled by injuries to Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski. This time Gronk is ready to go. Whoever you like in this one, books probably won’t budge off seven.

Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

These aren’t the Dallas Cowboys football bettors have been accustomed. The old Boys would have figured out a way to throw away a playoff spot with poor play in December, or Tony Romo would have done something – anything – to turn a win into a loss. But now Dallas takes a five-game winning streak into Green Bay on Sunday, and Cowboy backers will be able to get nearly a full touchdown in what figures to be a grind-it-out taffy pull.

Temperatures in Green Bay are expected to moderate a bit by Sunday, but it’s possible that the game will finish in single digits, which could be a shock to the Cowboys. Not “Ice Bowl II” stuff, but still nasty enough. Early money is on Green Bay, but Dallas money may flood in late and move the line. Hang on a bit here and check out the variables later in the week.

Total to watch

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (40.5)

Plenty to offer here for both Over and Under aficionados. Under players can make an argument that Seattle’s defense is every bit as good now as it was at this time last season, and that Carolina can easily hang with the Seahawks because the Panthers haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game in more than a month.

But some Over players will jump at anything under 41 points (24-17) and figure all that’s needed is a couple of well-placed pass interference call to make dust of the Under. Either way, it’s hard to see the books adding a half-point to the scale.

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:30 PM

Recent NFL history says Panthers are most dangerous team this postseason

The Carolina Panthers are the biggest underdogs on the board, set at +10.5 heading to Seattle for their NFL Divisional Round matchup this Saturday. The Panthers could also be the most dangerous team in football – if recent history has any say.

Carolina, at 7-8-1 in the regular season, joins the recent list of single-digit-win teams to tear it up in the playoffs. The Panthers’ 27-16 wild card victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 5.5-point favorites Saturday improved teams with single-digit wins in the regular season to 20-7 ATS in playoff games since 2008.

Carolina squeezed into the postseason with a one-sided win at Atlanta in Week 17, finishing atop the NFC South and earning an automatic postseason berth – just the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 finish to the regular season.

“The market has had a lot to do with it in the past, as lines have been overinflated going against these single-win teams,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who cashed in on Carolina Saturday.

Last year, single-digit win teams were a perfect 3-0 ATS in the playoff. The Green Bay Packers (8-7-1 SU) just covered as 3.5-point underdogs in a 23-20 Wild Card loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and the San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU) knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 as 6.5-point pups in the Wild Card Round and covered in a 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos as 8-point underdogs in the AFC Divisional Round.

The two most prominent single-win postseason teams in that seven-year span have been the New York Giants, who finished 9-7 in 2011 and rolled to a Super Bowl XLVI title on perfect 4-0 SU and ATS postseason record, and Arizona Cardinals, who went 9-7 in 2008 and finished 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS eventually losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-23 as 6.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl XLIII.

“I don't think there's any question it’s a result of the overreaction to regular season results,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy, who also won big on the Panthers this past weekend. “Outside of that, I'm not sure there's any particular reason why single-digit win teams cover at such a high rate. When the playoffs kick off the slate is always wiped clean and that gives a lot of confidence to underdogs with an 'us against the world' mentality.”

As for the Panthers’ chances against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the opening odds had Carolina as high as +11.5 and have since been bet down as low as +10.5. Seattle has won four in a row in this series, covering the spread in three of those games. The lone blemish came this season, with the Panthers covering as 6-point home underdogs in a 13-9 loss to the Seahawks in Week 8.

“The Panthers defense came into the postseason playing awesome and they had outgained six straight opponents, make that seven now,” says Fargo. “This week, though, we are seeing the typical single-win team getting a lot of points and the market is driving this number based on the poor Carolina record going up against the defending Super Bowl Champions.”

For those not wanting to deal with so many points, there could be value on the Panthers to win outright at CenturyLink Field Saturday. Teams with single-digit wins in the regular season are an impressive 17-10 SU since 2008.

Carolina is currently a +475 outright underdog. Just sayin’.

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:31 PM

Where the action is: NFL Playoffs biggest mid-week line moves

The NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since Sunday and while the majority of the money will come this weekend, sportsbooks have already gone toe-to-toe with wiseguys and don’t expect that fight to finish until kickoff.

We talk with Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag about the action and line movement for the four divisional round games and where these odds could end up come game time.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – Open: -7.5, Move: -7

Books opened with a half-point hook on this meeting between the Ravens and Patriots – two familiar postseason foes – and instant sharp money came in on Baltimore, trimming the half point off the line and settling the spread at a touchdown for New England. What happened after wiseguys had their say was a bit puzzling to bookmakers.

“After taking that initial sharp action on the dog, we’ve also started to see more and more recreational money come in on the dog,” Childs tells Covers. “I didn’t expect that money because our bettors have backed the Patriots in every one of their games since their dominating performance against the Bengals back in October.”

Childs believes the public’s betting interest in the Ravens stems from the media’s handy work, stirring up Baltimore’s past success against New England in the playoffs – almost the way a promoter would hype a heavyweight fight.

“For the first time in nearly three months, we’re going to need the Patriots,” he says. “And with them coming off a bye, and their major advantages on the defensive side of the ball, I have no problem going into this game needing the Patriots.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -12.5, Move: -10.5

Sportsbook.ag went high on the Seahawks in this Divisional Round showdown with the Panthers, and all of the early action sided with Carolina. According to Childs, it was a mix of sharp and public money, dropping the spread two whole points in the first four hours it was on the board.

However, the move from -12 to -10.5 wasn’t based solely on the exposure on the Panthers, with 12 being a dead number in the eyes of the book. They leap frogged the spread to Seahawks -10.5 and are bracing for what the weekend may bring.

“What that early money did is show us the way on where this line should be, and it belongs at 10.5 and the 11-point range,” says Childs. “Since getting to 10.5, we’re seeing some Seahawks money show and it’s been nice, two-way action at 10.5 and I don’t think we’ll be moving off the 10.5 any time soon.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers – Open: -7, Move: -6.5

Books are playing tennis with this number, opening at a touchdown and going back and forth between Green Bay -7 and -6.5, settling at -6.5 for the time being. Early money took the underdog Cowboys but Childs isn’t so sure the sharps are done having their way with his NFC Divisional Round war.

“No question, we have some serious liability if this game lands seven because of all the money we’ve booked on the Cowboys at +7 (-115) and Packers -6.5 (-110),” he says. “But by going to that key number of seven it’s giving us great, two-way action on this game because at 6.5, it’s nothing but Packers money and at 7 it’s nothing but Cowboys money. I’d prefer booking this game somewhat even with a touch of liability if the game falls. We’ll see what happens, but at this point I like how the money is coming in so far.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos – Open -7.5, Move: -7

Wiseguys grabbed the half-point hook on the Colts when this line went up and bookmakers trimmed the line to an even touchdown. However, money showed on the home side Broncos following that adjustment. Rather than go back to the original number, Childs says they’ve been juggling the juice on this touchdown spread.

“This is going to be an easy game to book, the number will remain seven for the rest of the week and we’re just going to have to adjust the juice from time to time, but I just can’t see us getting off of seven in this one,” he says.

Oddsmaker’s note: “In all four games we’re pretty exposed on all the underdogs in regards to the moneyline. That’s to be expected. It’s the playoffs and we’re starting to see more and more recreational money come in on these games. Just like the Super Bowl in years past, our customers love taking the plus juice and taking a chance on a big score by laying a few dollars in hopes the underdog can win outright, cashing a nice score at +250 or more.”

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:31 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round Playoffs

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7, 47.5)

Ravens’ ability to draw flags vs. Patriots’ penalty prone secondary

Referees have had a hair trigger when it comes to flagging overly aggressive coverage this season – and will more so after the pass interference controversy in Dallas last Sunday. No team has felt the pinch of those penalties like the Patriots, who have been flagged for defensive holding a league-high 14 times and whistled for pass interference nine times for a grand total of 217 yards against.

New England has a much-improved defense compared to past postseasons, but the one weakness has been against the pass. The Patriots allow 239.8 yards through the air per game – 17th in the NFL – and most of that damage has come on deep balls, with the stop unit giving up 36 passes of 25 yards or more, which sits fourth most in the league.

Baltimore has benefited from those ticky-tack passing penalties. The Ravens have received 15 pass interference calls against their opponents this season – most in the NFL – and have forced flags to fly on six defensive holding infractions, totaling 345 free yards from foes this season. Baltimore benefited from a 32-yard pass interference call in its win over the Steelers last weekend.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 39.5)

Panthers’ owning time of possession vs. Seahawks’ big spread

Carolina has gotten back to basics in recent weeks and clashes with a team cut from a similar cloth Saturday. Much like Seattle, the Panthers depend on a clock-controlling offense and a dominating defense to win games. It’s worked for Carolina, which has owned time of possession for an average time of 35:27 over the past three games.

The Panthers rushing attack is picking up speed at the right time. Running back Jonathan Stewart has rumbled for 524 yards in his last five games, and rushing mate DeAngelo Williams is working his way back from injury. Add to that ground game the crazy legs of dual-threat QB Cam Newton, and Carolina is sitting down to an all-you-can-eat clock buffet.

With the Panthers hogging the pigskin, it makes it very difficult for Seattle to put up the points necessary to cover this lofty spread. The Seahawks have a stingy defense but have been bullied for TOP in two of their losses this season, versus Dallas and at San Diego – a difference of 79:54/50:06 in those games. And, in its rare home losses, Seattle has been edged in TOP including a 37:24/22:36 count in last season’s loss to Arizona at home. Dallas and Arizona – the last two teams to win at CenturyLink – have out-rushed the Seahawks by a collective 301-183 yards.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6, 52.5)

Cowboys’ RB DeMarco Murray vs. Packers’ weakness to the run

Green Bay’s stop unit has looked a little better than it really is in recent weeks. The Packers defense has been a concern all season and got a break at the end of the year against some troubled offenses, taking on punchless teams like Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Detroit. This team allows 119.9 yards on the ground per game – 23rd in the NFL – and that’s a number that should be bigger if not for opponents having to abandon the run in order to keep pace with the Packers explosive offense.

The Cheese Heads are allowing 4.3 yards per rush attempt and have been bowled over when trying to stop runners from moving the chains, with a 34.22 rushing first-down percentage on defense. They’ve given up an average of 7.2 first downs on runs and now face a Dallas offensive line that has paved the way for a record-setting year for its running back.

DeMarco Murray is a relentless runner that will battle for every yard. Behind that powerful o-line, and with the help off a dangerous passing game keeping linebackers honest, Murray led the league with 85 rushing first downs in the regular season, complementing his average of more than 115 yards rushing. The last time these teams met, a Week 15 shootout in Dallas, Murray exploded for 134 yards on 18 carries – 7.4 yards per run – and a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7, 54)

Colts’ tight end troubles vs. Broncos’ TE Julius Thomas

Thomas opened the season with a bang, reeling in seven catches for 104 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 1 showdown with Indianapolis. That was the beginning of a tough season versus tight ends for the Colts, who allowed a total of 954 yards and 10 touchdowns to those big targets.

Indianapolis allowed 44 yards on four catches to Cincinnati’s tight ends in the Wild Card Round, watched Titans TE Delanie Walker grab seven balls for 43 yards in Week 17, and got toasted for 90 yards and a score on seven receptions from Dallas TE Jason Witten in Week 16. And those are just recent examples.

Thomas has been slowed by an ankle injury late in the year. But limited action and the extra week off has helped the Broncos' big man in the middle heal up before this postseason game. Thomas has been a beast in the red zone as well as on third down – an area Indianapolis is used to controlling. He’s totaled 182 yards and an average of 13 yards per reception on third down, with four of his 12 touchdowns coming on these snaps.

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:31 PM

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Keys to all four games

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4)

Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. - TV: NBC

*TV announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

*Keys to the game: Baltimore is not unnerved by a stroll into the House That Brady Built, winning two of the previous three playoff meetings, including 28-13 in the AFC Championship game in 2013. There are two big reasons for genuine bravado from the Ravens: QB Joe Flacco's 14 playoff starts include a 7-0 record on the road, and Baltimore defensive coordinator Dean Pees has experience deconstructing Tom Brady's offense.

The Ravens are expecting LT Eugene Monroe back in the lineup -- he didn't play last week due to an ankle injury -- solidifying an offensive line that grasps the plan is to win with the deep ball. Flacco and 35-year-old lead receiver Steve Smith connected five times in the wild-card win, as Baltimore scrapes for positive gains in the running game. But Smith will likely see a lot of All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis, forcing Flacco to look elsewhere.

New England had two weeks to ready a game plan, anticipating a 3-4 defense, and TE Rob Gronkowski will be at the center of it all. Gronkowski will see bracket coverage and the Ravens used SS Darian Stewart to cut off deep routes last week. The risk for the Ravens is exposing CB Lardarius Webb man-up with WR Julian Edelman. Webb played every snap at Pittsburgh, but allowed nine catches in 12 targets and a passer rating of 129.2.

Rookie ILB C.J. Mosley joined Ray Lewis as the only Ravens rookies to lead the team in tackles and he owns a lot of land inside the tackles. Critical for the Ravens will be folding the pocket around Brady. DE Terrell Suggs has 12 career playoff sacks and with two last week, Elvis Dumervil has 19 in 17 games this season.

*Matchup to watch - Ravens TE Owen Daniels vs. Patriots LB Jamie Collins: Daniels averaged 17.5 yards per catch at Pittsburgh and is a go-to look on third downs. The Patriots have gone zone-heavy against the Ravens in the past to limit Flacco's grenade launcher.

*Player spotlight - Patriots NT Vince Wilfork: Recent film of the Ravens' offensive line showed flaws aplenty. With Monroe back, that group gets stronger, but C Jeremy Zuttah was manhandled at Pittsburgh and will be tested constantly by defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.

*Fast facts: Flacco is 10-4 in the playoffs and has gone 166 pass attempts without an interception in the postseason. ... Bill Belichick has 19 career playoff wins, one shy of the NFL record (Don Shula, 20). ... The Patriots have won 16 of their past 17 home games.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Ravens are capable of the upset with more out of their running game and consistent heat on Brady, but the Patriots historically over-adjust to correct exposed flaws and have earned the favorites label with their Hall of Fame QB-coach combo. Brady delivers in the big spots to push New England to the conference title game.

*Our pick: Patriots 25-21

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at CenturyLink Field, Seattle - TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver

*Keys to the game: The Panthers have the offensive game plan suited to keeping the game close, and the history to back that belief up. The teams have meet each of the past three seasons in Carolina, with the Seahawks winning all three, but only by an average of 4.3 points in low-scoring defensive battles.

Carolina's ground game is the most formidable it has been all season with RB Jonathan Stewart and QB Cam Newton healthy. If the Panthers can run between the tackles and suck up time of possession, they know the Seahawks don't score a ton of points -- as long as Newton steers clear of mistakes downfield. In the three previous meetings, he has averaged 146 yards while completing 68 percent of his pass attempts. He has also been sacked a combined 13 times. Translation: he will throw high percentage passes in an attempt to keep the chains moving and steer clear of the Legion of Boom.

The Seahawks are not exotic offensively. RB Russell Wilson will run the zone read with RB Marshawn Lynch against a middle of the pack run defense. The onus is on gap integrity among Carolina's front seven to prevent big plays that could prove backbreaking in a tight contest. Wilson lacks the outside threats to push the ball vertically, but is very dangerous when escaping the pocket and looking for WR Doug Baldwin or one of several solid tight ends on extended plays.

*Matchup to watch - Panthers DTs Colin Cole and Kawaan Short vs. Seahawks C Max Unger: Unger returns after missing six games and handles all the line calls. With former first-round pick Star Lotulelei (broken foot) out, Cole gets the nod next to Short. The interior defensive line is pivotal for keeping the Panthers' speedy linebackers free of blocks and the Panthers have limited Lynch to a combined 105 yards the past two meetings.

*Player spotlight - Panthers DE Charles Johnson: After posting no sacks through four games this season, Johnson has 10.5 over his past 13 and will be working against vulnerable rookie RT Justin Britt.

*Fast facts: Stewart is from Lacy, Wash., about one hour south of Seattle, and chose the University of Oregon over the University of Washington, among others. ... Seattle is attempting to become the first team since the 2005 Patriots to win a playoff game the year after winning the Super Bowl.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Panthers have won five straight, are playing with house money and can absolutely take this game down to the wire. Then again, Newton has never played in Seattle, and certainly not in the postseason, where the Seahawks feed off their environment and regularly turn first-half dogfights into comfortable victory marches.

*Our pick: Seahawks 23-16

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. - TV: FOX

*TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.

*Keys to the game: Cowboys QB Tony Romo was sacked a season-high six times by the Lions last week. The Packers can bring some of the same poison, disguising blitzes by sliding around chess pieces at linebacker -- Clay Matthews from outside to the middle and Julius Peppers from down to stand-up rusher.

The heavy pressure exposed the Dallas offensive line thought to be largely inpenetrable and calls into question Romo's responsivness to pre-snap looks that imply the heat will be high.

Seeing the blitz coming and beating it -- either with audibles into a stellar running game or by attacking one-on-one matchups on the perimeter -- could make or break the Cowboys in a chilly venue where every mistake will be amplified. The Cowboys are running the ball 14 percent more -- 49.3 percent in 17 games -- than they did last season when these teams met, but some are concerned RB DeMarco Murray might be wearing down after 472 total touches, including 22 last week vs. Detroit.

The Packers should have plenty of pep in the 15-degree friendly confines of Lambeau after a bye last week that spared QB Aaron Rodgers 10 days of practice on his strained calf. Mobility might not be 100 percent or at training camp levels, but Rodgers is expected to be ready to roll.

That isn't great news for the Cowboys, who are lacking a defined lead cornerback -- Brandon Carr has struggled mightily and Orlando Scandrick gets by more on guts than gifts -- and will likely utilize a soft zone to keep Rodgers from going over the top to talented WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

Green Bay trusts RB Eddie Lacy, but as with Murray (five fumbles lost), his ball security is not a given. The big back can bulldoze for yards and expose Dallas inside, where SS Barry Church is no sure thing.

*Matchup to watch – Cowboys special teams vs. Packers special teams: Packers CB Micah Hyde has four return touchdowns in his career, including two punt return scores this season. Cowboys PK Dan Bailey made 25 of 29 field goal attempts this season but missed one last week. The Packers have had seven total kicks blocked this season.

*Player spotlight – Packers TE Richard Rodgers: Out of the blue, Rodgers had five of his 20 receptions this season in the Week 17 finale when the Lions doubled both outside receivers. Against the Cover-2 scheme, Aaron Rodgers will look to slot receiver Cobb and rookie TE Rodgers.

*Fast facts: This is the first playoff game pitting an 8-0 home team (Green Bay) against a team that went 8-0 on the road (Dallas). ... With a win, the Cowboys would reach a NFL-record-tying 15th NFC Championship game (San Francisco). ... On a combined 154 targets, Cowboys WRs Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley have zero drops. ... Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (16) and Packers WR Jordy Nelson (13) were first and second in the NFL in touchdown catches. ... The Packers outscored opponents 151-58 in the first quarter this season. ... The Packers led the NFL with a plus-14 turnover margin.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

If the Packers get out to a lead, the Cowboys are capable of climbing out of the danger zone against most teams, but Green Bay's offensive talent exceeds that of most Dallas opponents. With two excellent quarterbacks and marginal defenses, the outcome could rest on a few key plays in the second half. Romo leads the NFL with 27 game-winning drives since 2006, but only one -- last week -- in the playoffs.

*Our pick: Packers 36-29

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver - TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

*Keys to the game: The Colts scored a touchdown on their opening possession last week for the first time all season. Indianapolis' offense has built a reputation for starting slow before staging furious rallies, similar to the script from meetings against Denver each of the past two seasons. QB Andrew Luck believes his growth is instrumental in avoiding turnovers and early deficits, which could prove lethal on the road against Peyton Manning & Co.

Expect RB Dan Herron to get plenty of early touches as the Colts attempt to establish possession and trade punches with Denver's defense, rather than taking them from Manning. Manning did not look himself down the stretch as the Broncos morphed into a run-heavy unit. With a bye week, all eyes will be on Manning's arm strength at the outset.

The Colts lack a dynamic pass rusher to consistently pressure the pocket, and Manning has far more weapons than Indianapolis can contend with if Manning is close to 100 percent. The key for the Colts' undersized front seven is to contain RB C.J. Anderson. If he's effective early and setting up play-action, Denver will have little trouble driving into the red zone.

*Matchup to watch - Colts SS Mike Adams vs. Manning: Teammates last season, Adams has a strong respect for Manning's preparation and intelligence. Knowing your opponent is one thing, stopping him is another, and Adams will play a key role in the cat and mouse pre-snap game.

*Player spotlight - Colts RB Daniel "Boom" Herron: Trent Richardson should see more action following an illness that limited him last week, but Herron has provided a versatile threat in the backfield. He rushed for a game-high 56 yards on 12 carries last week and caught a game-high 10 passes for another 85 yards.

*Fast facts: In his first four postseason games, Luck has thrown more passes (184) and thrown for more yards (1,438) than any other player in league history, besting Dan Fouts (182) and Kurt Warner (1,428) who held the previous records. ... Manning is the NFL's all-time playoff leader with 6,589 passing yards and is fourth with 37 TD passes.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Manning has notoriously struggled in cold-weather games, but with temperatures expected near 40, a bye week to rest his 38-year-old body and a solid ground game chipping away at an undersized front seven, he puts the pressure on Luck early and Denver's defense capitalizes with multiple turnovers.

*Our pick: Broncos 30-23

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:33 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Carolina at Seattle
The Panthers head to Seattle on Saturday to face the Seahawks (7-1 SU at home) and come into the contest with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Seattle is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 10

Game 111-112: Baltimore at New England (4:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 138.491; New England 141.995
Dunkel Line: New England by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+7); Under

Game 113-114: Carolina at Seattle (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.420; Seattle 146.661
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 14; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 11

Game 117-118: Dallas at Green Bay (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.848; Green Bay 142.810
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2; 56
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Indianapolis at Denver (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.234; Denver 144.892
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 54
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Under

NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 10

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BALTIMORE (11 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/10/2015, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 166-127 ATS (+26.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 105-74 ATS (+23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (12 - 4) - 1/10/2015, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 11

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DALLAS (13 - 4) at GREEN BAY (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 84-58 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 5) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Division Round

Sat, Jan. 10

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 4:35 ET

Baltimore
1-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins
12-3 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
44-23 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more last game
57-36 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins

New England
10-2 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
37-19 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 ET

Carolina
2-6 ATS after playing a game at home
11-2 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game
35-18 UNDER after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Seattle
19-7 ATS in home games
19-7 ATS against conference opponents
13-5 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
14-4 UNDER in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games

Sun, Jan. 11

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, 1:00 ET

Dallas
8-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
6-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents
14-4 OVER in road games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game

Green Bay
57-36 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs
7-1 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents
7-1 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, 4:40 ET

Indianapolis
17-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
17-8 ATS against conference opponents
22-7 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points
27-13 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

Denver
19-34 ATS off a home win against a division rival
89-57 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
15-5 OVER off 1 or more straight overs

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Division Round

Ravens (11-6) @ Patriots (12-4)-- Since 2001, Patriots are 1-2 in home playoff games vs Baltimore, 11-1 against everyone else; Pats blasted Ravens 41-7 in Week 16 LY, which helped end Ravens' season. Flacco has seven road playoff wins, more than anyone else in NFL history. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 10-3 vs spread this season; AFC East home favorites are 4-7. Last three years, Patriots scored 40+ points in winning its first playoff game. NE won 10 of last 12 games overall, losing last game when Brady sat out second half, Gronkowski didn't play; they're 2-3 as home favorites. Baltimore is 5-4 on road this year- they won four of last five, are 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Five of last six Patriot games stayed under total.

Panthers (8-8-1) @ Seahawks (12-4)-- Remember that last time defending champ won a playoff game the next year was 2005. Carolina won its last five games, allowing average of 11.8 ppg, after 1-8-1 midseason skid. Panthers are 5-6 as underdogs, 4-4 away from home. Seattle (-5) won 13-9 at Carolina in Week 7, third year in row they won slugfest vs Panthers (16-12/21-7/13-9), all in Charlotte. In Week 7 games, teams had no TDs, three FGs on five red zone drives. Seattle won its last six games overall (5-0-1 vs spread); they didn't allow TD in last two games but were facing backup QB in both games- they're 6-2 overall vs Carolina, 3-0 at home. Teams have similar mobile QBs. Carolina has had rough few weeks, with coach Rivera's house having fire early Monday morning this week.

Cowboys (13-4) @ Packers (12-4)-- Rodgers has partial tear in calf, hasn't practiced lot this week (if at all), but is expected to play. Packers are 8-0 at home, Dallas 8-0 on road- six of last seven teams that went 8-0 on road make it to the Super Bowl. Green Bay won last three series games, winning 37-36 in Dallas LY, when Pack trailed 26-3 at halftime. Packers are 1-3 in playoff games since winning Super Bowl, with two of three losses at home; they covered six of last seven at home overall. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 9-6 vs spread; NFC East road underdogs are 6-7. Romo is from Wisconsin; when he was senior in HS, was runner-up to Caron Butler for state's HS Athlete of Year. Cowboys covered four of five as an underdog this season.

Colts (12-5) @ Broncos (12-4)-- Denver (-7.5) beat Colts 31-24 in season opener, game they led 24-7 at half; Broncos are 2-2 in playoffs in Manning era, 2-1 home- they're 4-4 as home favorite this year. Indy is 3-6 in playoff games since winning Super Bowl, 0-2 on road in Luck era, losing 24-9/43-22 last two years. Colts had won six in row in series before Week 1 loss, but Manning played for Indy in five of those six- Colts' last three losses are by 35-22-17 points. Patriots ran for 244 yards vs Indy, would expect similar approach from Denver, which ran ball for 149.3 ypg over last six games. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-7 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 8-5. Five of last six Denver home games still went over total.

NFL

Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 10

4:35 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

8:15 PM
CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, January 11

1:05 PM
DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 16 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Dallas

4:40 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

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**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:51 PM

NFL

Division Round

Cowboys' Murray carving up lower tier rushing defenses

If you're looking for one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL's Divisional Round, a game changer in Dallas-Green Bay could come from the Cowboys' rushing attack.

In five games against defenses that ranked in the bottom 10 at stopping the run this season, Cowboys' running back DeMarco Murray averaged 133 yards per game and 5.4 yards/carry. Dallas backers will be pleased to be reminded that the Packers rushing defense finished the year at 23rd overall.

Sportsbook.ag has the Over/Under for Murray's rushing yards for the contest at 99.5.

Head official for IND-DEN could be trouble for Colts

Veteran referee Bill Leavy will serve as the head official for Indianapolis' Divisional Round clash with Denver, something Colts backers won't be thrilled with.

Since Andrew Luck took over the reigns under center, the Colts are 0-3 straight-up in games with Leavy in charge, including their embarrassing 42-7 loss to Dallas just over two weeks ago. Indianapolis is coming off of a 26-10 victory over Cincinnati in Wild Card weekend while Peyton Manning and the Broncos are fully rested after earning a first round bye.

As of 12:30 p.m. EST Friday, Indianapolis was listed as 7-point road dogs for the game.

Panthers posting ugly offensive numbers vs. Seattle

In the wake of the Carolina Panthers' victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Wild Card weekend in the NFL, the stage is set for Cam Newton and company to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Round.

According to recent history, however, that could spell trouble for the Carolina. Both squads have played each other in each of the last three years ahead of the contest, but the Panthers have only managed to muster one offensive touchdown in that span while averaging just nine points per game.

Oddsmakers currently have Seattle as 10.5-point faves for the matchup.

Eight loss teams winless in Divisional Round since 2004

Carolina (7-8-1 in the regular season) is the seventh team since 2002 to make the playoffs with eight losses. Of those seven teams, the Panthers are the sixth squad to win in the Wild Card round after topping the Ryan Lindley-led Arizona Cardinals 27-16.

The success ended there, however. The other five aforementioned clubs went 0-5 straight-up in the divisional round with an average loss of 20 points. All five (the 2011 Broncos, 2010 Seahawks, 2008 Chargers, and the 2004 Vikings and Rams) lost by at least 11 points in those games.

Cam Newton and company will try and buck that trend when they visit the Seattle Seahawks and the infamous 12th man at CenturyLink Field Saturday. The Panthers are presently listed as +10.5 underdogs for the affair.

Ravens have had Pats' number at Foxboro in playoffs

It's no secret how dominant the New England Patriots have been in the playoffs at home with Tom Brady under center, but one team has been the Pats' postseason kryptonite in Foxborough behind the Michigan product: the Baltimore Ravens.

New England is 12-3 straight-up in postseason games played in Massachusetts with Brady calling the shots, but two of those losses have come at the hands of Baltimore. The Ravens topped the Patriots 33-14 in 2009 and 28-13 in 2012 en route to hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

The Ravens will travel to Foxborough once again Saturday in Divisional Round action. The majority of books opened New England as 7.5-point faves, but that's since been bet down to -7.

Seahawks have been a great playoff bet with Wilson

Since entering the league in 2012, Russell Wilson has been clutch come playoff time both for his team and Seahawks spread backers alike.

The 26-year-old is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in his first five postseason appearances. After earning a first round bye, Wilson and the 'Hawks are back in action yet again on Saturday versus Carolina.

Seattle is listed as 10.5-point home favorites for the game. At the time of writing, the total was sitting at 39.5.

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:52 PM

NCAAF Trends and Indexes

Monday, January 12

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:

As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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NCAAF Matchup Links

Sagarin NCAAF Power Ratings

NCAAF Matchups

NCAAF Hot or Not

NCAAF Trends

NCAAF News and Weather

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**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:53 PM

NCAAF Opening Line Report: Ohio State 7-point dogs in title game after shocking 'Bama

A big favorite and a big underdog won and covered in the first FBS college football playoff, setting up what amounts to a traditional Rose Bowl – except that it will take place at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

The Pac-12’s Oregon Ducks will take on the Big 10’s Ohio State Buckeyes on Jan. 12, after those two teams posted impressive semifinal victories Thursday night.

Oregon boatraced defending national champion Florida State 59-20 in the Rose Bowl, cashing many times over as a 7.5-point favorite. And Ohio State, which trailed 21-6 in the second quarter and appeared on the verge of suffering its own blowout, outscored Alabama 36-14 the rest of the way to claim a shocking 42-35 Sugar Bowl victory as a 7.5-point underdog.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said he’s opening the game at Oregon -7.

“The Ohio State name brings a lot of supporters, certainly more than Oregon, but all the gamblers that lost with Alabama will probably come right back and take the Ducks here,” Lester said late Thursday night. “Our numbers suggest that Oregon is between 8 and 9 points better than Ohio State on a neutral field. But given the fact that the Buckeyes have more backers in their camp, we opened Oregon as touchdown chalk to be safe.”

An oddsmaker from topbet.eu followed Lester's logic.

"Before the Rose Bowl started, we were planning on using Oregon -7 vs Ohio State," he said. "Based on both teams' impressive victories, we didn't think it was necessary to stray off the important number of 7."

With scoring aplenty in the semifinal games – both of which easily went over the total – Lester set the total for the title game at 73.5 points.

NCAA practice rule gives Buckeyes huge edge in National Championship

College football bettors looking for a deciding edge in the National Championship Game between Ohio State and Oregon may have found their in. And they can thank the NCAA for that advantage.

According to ESPN’s Brett McMurphy, Ohio State can run unlimited practice hours leading up the title game due to the fact that the school’s spring semester doesn’t start until Monday. Unfortunately, for Oregon, which started its spring session this week, the Ducks are limited to 20 hours of practice time due to NCAA regulations.

Oddsmakers opened with Oregon as a 7-point favorite over the Buckeyes, following their domination of defending national champion Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. However, sharp action took Ohio State plus the touchdown and has trimmed the spread to six points as of Thursday afternoon.

According to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag, many football bettors are skipping the points and going right to Ohio State’s moneyline, grabbing the Buckeyes as big as +190 to win outright inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas Monday.

“That game has seen tons and tons of Ohio State moneyline action,” Childs tells Covers. “To the point that we’re at -200 on Oregon when they’re a 6.5-point favorite. Usually a 6.5-point favorite would be in the -250 range, but our liability on the moneyline as well as Ohio State’s future action has taken this moneyline down to -200, giving only +170 on Ohio State. But our customers are even taking that number.”

That 20-hour cap includes on-field work, weight room sessions, meetings and film study, as well as a three-hour count for the game itself. A Pac-12 official informed ESPN that Oregon is adhering to the NCAA’s strict limitations. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, can do as much preparation as they want simply because school hasn’t started for Ohio State students.

Earlier this week, Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer told reporters that he and his staff are being careful not to overwork their players leading up to Monday's title game, but that doesn't mean they can't spend as much time as they want in the classroom or film study, getting familiar with Oregon's unorthodox play sets.

“You do have to treat it a little bit differently about how you practice, the amount of pad contact you have, the amount -- how many times you’re going to hit the tailback and your offensive line,” Meyer told the media. “Those are all things that I think our staff and I’ve watched so close, and the same with our strength coach - not about just wearing them out, because it’s a much different season.”

The Buckeyes upset No. 1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, winning 42-35 as 7.5-point underdogs. Ohio State is led by third-string sophomore QB Cardale Jones, who has played well beyond his experience since taking over for injured J.T. Barrett before the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes have been underdogs three times this season and have won outright in all three games.

Monday’s total is set at 75 points.

**Udog** · 01-09-2015, 12:53 PM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Ohio State vs. Oregon
The Buckeyes face the Ducks in the national championship game and come into the contest with a 9-2-1 ATS record in their last 12 games versus Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has Oregon favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 10

Game 151-152: Illinois State vs. North Dakota State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 88.305; North Dakota State 91.186
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 3; 58
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 6 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+6 1/2); Over

MONDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 277-278: Ohio State vs. Oregon (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 121.119; Oregon 123.758
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 2 1/2; 79
Vegas Line: Oregon by 7; 75
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7); Over

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Monday, January 12

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OHIO ST (13 - 1) vs. OREGON (13 - 1) - 1/12/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OHIO ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
OHIO ST is 164-119 ATS (+33.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 164-119 ATS (+33.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Monday, January 12

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks - 9:00 PM EST

Ohio State Buckeyes
12-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
10-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
8-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive overs

Oregon Ducks
6-5 ATS after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins
11-8 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread
42-23 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread

NCAAF

Monday, January 12

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
OHIO STATE vs. OREGON
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Ohio State's last 13 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**BettorsChat** · 01-10-2015, 05:40 AM

Betting Systems:

Play on Home teams - after scoring 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.
(52-22 ATS 70.3% +27.8 Units over the last 10 seasons) Play = **New England against the spread.

Baltimore is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The Average score was Baltimore 25.4 Opponent 18.8 Play on ***Baltimore

Betting System:

Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins.
(55-21 Over) Play = Over in Seattle game

Play against favorites of 10.5+ points (SEATTLE) out gaining opponents by 1.25+ passing yards/per attempts after allowing 5.5 passing yards/per attempt in 2 straight games. (51-22 69.9% +26.8 units) since 1983. Play **Carolina

Seattle is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Play on ***Seattle

Betting System:

Team against the total - good pass team (230-265 PY/game) against average pass defense (185-230 PY/game) after gaining +6.75 pass yards/attempts in 4 straight games. (31-8 under) Play = Under Dallas Game

Green Bay is 10-0 ATS (+10 units) in home games against top-level teams (Win Percentage > 75%) in the 2nd half of the season since 1992
The average score was Green Bay 28.2 Opponent 15. Play on ****Green Bay

Betting Systems:

Home teams against the total - after allowing 4.5 passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 8 or more passing/yards per attempt last game. (49-22 Over) Play = Over Denver game

Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) revenging a loss against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
(27-8 77.1% +18.2 units last 5 seasons) Play ** Denver

Announcement

NFL Division Round and NCAAF NCG Trends and Indexes (Sat., Jan. 10 - Mon., Jan. 12)

NFL Division Round and NCAAF NCG Trends and Indexes (Sat., Jan. 10 - Mon., Jan. 12)

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