Announcement

**Udog** · 01-01-2015, 07:03 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys open as touchdown faves vs. Lions

It took until late Sunday night for the entire NFL playoff picture to develop. But it’ll take a little bit longer to fully determine the opening lines for Wild Card playoff weekend, thanks to key injuries suffered by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals in that Sunday night clash.

Pittsburgh fended off Cincinnati 27-17 as 3-point home chalk to claim the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed. And as a reward gets to host another division rival – sixth-seeded Baltimore – Saturday. The Steelers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) have won and covered four in a row, but standout running back Le’Veon Bell suffered a knee injury during the win over the Bengals.

The Ravens (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) capped the regular season with a 20-10 home win over Cleveland, failing to cash as hefty 14-point faves.

Bell’s injury initially forced John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, to hold off on setting a firm line, but after some deliberation the book set the Steelers as 3-point home chalk. As of Monday, Bell's status for the matchup was still uncertain.

“These are two teams that are obviously extremely familiar with each other, and as I’ve said before, it seems like the home team wins this matchup more often than not,” Lester said.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-4)

The Bengals (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had it rough in more ways than one during the 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh as 3-point underdogs. Cincinnati entered the game as the No. 3 seed with a home playoff game in its sights, and exited with the No. 5 seed and a road playoff game. Plus, star wide receiver A.J. Green suffered a head injury and is being evaluated for a concussion.

Prior to losing the regular season finale, Cincinnati had won seven of nine SU (5-3-1 ATS).

Indianapolis has won five of six SU entering the playoffs (3-2-1 ATS), capped by Sunday’s 27-10 victory at Tennessee as a 7.5-point chalk. The Colts (11-5 SU), who won the AFC South and the No. 4 seed, had the league’s second-best ATS record at 10-5-1.

Regardless of Green’s status, Lester is much higher on the Colts for the Sunday wild card contest.

“There won’t be much faith from bettors that the Bengals can pull this one off, so we will have to be generous on Indy’s side,” he said. “The bettors see the incredible gap between Andy Dalton and Andrew Luck, not to mention the early-season matchup that the Colts absolutely dominated (a 27-0 Indy home win). We’ll need some more information on Green’s status before releasing a line.”

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)

Carolina plastered Atlanta 34-3 as a 2.5-point road pup in a winner-take-all game in the horrific NFC South. The Panthers (7-8-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) became the second team in NFL history to reach the playoffs with a losing record.

Just as intriguing, they’re favored Saturday against the Arizona Cardinals (11-5 SU), who have the league’s best ATS mark at 11-5, but are down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley The Cardinals have lost four of their last six games SU after a 9-1 SU start. On Sunday, Arizona fell at San Francisco 20-17, covering as a 6.5-point underdog.

“It’s funny to see a seven-win squad as chalk against one that won 11 games, but this is a funny league,” Lester said. “I love that Phoenix defense, but I’m just not sure the Cardinals can do enough offensively with Lindley under center. (Coach) Bruce Arians is going to have to get very creative, and he’s one of the best in that category. If the Cardinals can rattle Cam Newton, create some turnovers, they have a good chance to get the upset.”

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Dallas, which won the NFC East and the No. 3 seed, capped the regular season by hammering Washington 44-17 laying 7.5 points on the road. The Cowboys (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) are 6-1 SU in their last seven, including a current 4-0 SU and ATS run in which they’ve scored at least 38 points in each game.

Detroit had a respectable showing at Green Bay in a showdown for the NFC North title Sunday, but still came up short in a 30-20 loss catching 8.5 points. That ended a four-game win streak (2-2 ATS) and knocked the Lions (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) down to the sixth seed.

“This matchup in the trenches is going to be great to watch, with the best o-line in the league (Dallas) and one of the best defensive lines (Detroit,)” Lester said of the Sunday NFC wild-card matchup. “But even if Detroit can stop DeMarco Murray and the running game, can it slow Dallas’ passing attack? The Cowboys are the hottest team in the league, and we know the public support for them during the playoffs will be huge.”

**Udog** · 01-01-2015, 07:03 PM

NFL Line Watch: Watch the total in Bengals-Colts

Spread to wait on

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

What an odd home/road split for the Cowboys, who were just so-so (4-4) in Dallas but killed it (8-0) on the road this season. Maybe the 'Boys should have offered to travel to Detroit for this one. Anyway, early numbers give bettors just about whatever they want for this one. Lions backers can shop around and get an extra half-point – and at this writing 8 is available at 5Dimes. If you like Dallas, you can find -7 just about anywhere. Westgate opened at -6.5, but the suspension of Ndamukong Suh caused that number to vanish. Suh will appeal, so it might be a good idea to see what happens with him before betting this one one way or the other.

Spread to bet now

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Seems like Baltimore-Pittsburgh battles have been field goal games for the last decade, so Steelers -3 is hardly a shock. Pittsburgh has played only a few close games this year, and both were early in the season (Week's 1 and 3), when the Steelers had both LeGarrette Blount and Le'Veon Bell lugging the football. Blount is long gone, and Bell’s status is uncertain because of injury. In an effort to keep things as stable as possible on the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers have brought in veteran back Ben Tate as an insurance policy. Even if Bell is able to play, it’s hard to see this line swelling to 3.5. What you see is what you get.

Total to watch

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (49.5)

Under players come out of the woodwork in the playoffs, where coaches constantly preach about the dangers of turning over the ball and offensive coordinators fear that they are one unsuccessful crazy play away the unemployment line. So caution is urged for folks tempted to grab the over on this one, even though it will be played in a dome. Four Colts games in a row have failed to go over, and 6 of the last eight Bengals games have failed to cover the number. Casual bettors do come out in the playoffs, inflating posted totals a bit, and seven touchdowns is a load. If you insist on batting the over, look around and see if 49 is available.

**Udog** · 01-01-2015, 07:05 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Ravens open the playoffs at Pittsburgh on Saturday and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 playoff games. Baltimore is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 105-106: Arizona at Carolina (4:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 131.587; Carolina 133.186
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 103-104: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.335; Pittsburgh 133.382
Dunkel Line: Even; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 107-108: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 132.732; Indianapolis 139.734
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7; 53
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 4; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-4); Over

Game 101-102: Detroit at Dallas (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.266; Dallas 144.867
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 3

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BALTIMORE (10 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 5) - 1/3/2015, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-3 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (11 - 5) at CAROLINA (7 - 8 - 1) - 1/3/2015, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 4

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DETROIT (11 - 5) at DALLAS (12 - 4) - 1/4/2015, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-83 ATS (-35.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (10 - 5 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) - 1/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, Jan. 3

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, 4:35 ET

Arizona
17-7 ATS against conference opponents
45-23 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
9-1 UNDER as a road underdog of 7 points or less
7-1 UNDER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Carolina
1-5 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
84-58 UNDER as a favorite
13-4 UNDER in home games
9-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 ET

Baltimore
1-6 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite
1-5 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
11-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Pittsburgh
32-16 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game at home
21-8 OVER in playoff games

Sunday, Jan. 4

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, 1:00 ET

Cincinnati
8-20 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival
0-6 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
6-0 UNDER as a road underdog
17-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points

Indianapolis
19-8 ATS as a favorite
7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game
19-8 UNDER in home games against AFC North division opponents

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, 4:40 ET

Detroit
56-83 ATS in road games against conference opponents
2-10 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
3-12 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Dallas
24-10 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
23-9 OVER in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins

NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 3

4:35 PM
ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
Arizona is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games

8:15 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Sunday, January 4

1:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cincinnati is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:40 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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**Udog** · 01-03-2015, 07:51 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Cardinals (11-5) @ Panthers (7-8-1)-- Arizona starts #3 QB Lindley here; they've lost four of last six games after 9-1 start. Redbirds is 5-3 as an underdog. Carolina won first two games and last four games, but went 1-8-1 in between; they scored 19 or less points in last five home games, are 2-3 as a favorite. Teams split last four games since Arizona won 33-13 here in '08 playoff contest. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-6 vs spread this year, 6-5 on road; NFC South favorites are 5-11, 4-8 at home. Cardinals are in playoffs for first time since '09; Carolina lost at home to 49ers in this round LY- their last playoff win was in '05. Eight of last eleven Arizona games stayed under total, as did last five Carolina home games, and last three overall.

Ravens (10-6) @ Steelers (11-5)-- Teams traded pair of 20-point home wins this year, after previous five series games were decided by 3 or less points. Baltimore led at half in only two of last nine games; they've outscored last four opponents 61-19 in second half. Ravens are 2-1 as underdogs this year, 4-4 SU on road; they lost in playoffs here in '08, '10, but won last four playoff games, missing LY after winning Super Bowl in '12. Pitt hasn't been in playoffs since '11, with last win in '10- they won last four home playoff games. Steelers will be without star RB Bell; they won/covered last four games, scoring 29 ppg- they've averaged 7.4+ ypa in each of last five games. Pitt won/covered five of last six home games- they lost at home to Bucs/Saints this year.

**Udog** · 01-03-2015, 07:59 AM

NFL

Saturday, January 3

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Saturday doubleheader
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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

The Carolina Panthers went two months without a victory and are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record, but the NFC South champions are a solid favorite as they open the postseason against the visiting Arizona Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers overcame a seven-game winless drought by winning their final four to snag the No. 4 seed and become the first playoff team with a losing record since 2010. "The beautiful thing - record doesn't matter," coach Ron Rivera said.

Arizona was in the mix for the top overall seed in the conference until dropping its final two games to NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle to plunge to the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Lindley, who will be making his seventh career start and threw his first touchdown passes in last week's loss to the 49ers. “I don’t think anything different is expected of us in that locker room,” Arizona coach Bruce Arians said. “We don’t look at it as a team with a third-string quarterback. It’s our starting quarterback."

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and the line has moved another two and a half points to sit at -6.5. The total has moved down slightly from 38.5 to 38.

INJURY REPORT: Cardinals - LB Larry Foote (probable Saturday, knee), DT Dan Williams (questionable Saturday, foot), G Jonathan Cooper (questionable Saturday, wrist), QB Drew Stanton (out Saturday, knee). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (probable Saturday, finger), S Thomas DeCoud (questionable Saturday, hamstring), G Amini Silatolu (questionable Saturday, knee), LB A.J. Klein (questionable Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 67 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40's.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (11-5, 11-5 ATS, 5-10-1 O/U): While Arizona is still holding out a slight hope that backup Drew Stanton (knee) can return, the reality is that Lindley will make his third straight start and attempt to build on last week's 316-yard, two-TD, three-interception performance - sans the picks. Michael Floyd hauled in both scoring passes while setting season highs with eight receptions for 153 yards last week but Larry Fitzgerald was limited to two catches while battling knee issues. Kerwynn Williams, signed off the practice squad after starter Andre Ellington was lost for the season in Week 13, has rushed for at least 67 yards in three of his four starts, but a bigger worry is the defense's inability to control the opposition's ground game. The Cardinals permitted one team to rush for 100 yards in their first 10 games, but have allowed five of the last six foes have surpassed that total.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS 7-8-1, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U): While Carolina had the good fortune of closing the season against four teams that finished with losing records, its defense surrendered an average of 10.8 points during the winning streak and limiting Atlanta to a season-low three points in last week's division clincher. Luke Kuechly - "The best middle linebacker in football," according to Arians - led the league in tackles for the second time in three seasons and is the backbone of a unit that was shredded for at least 37 points in five of the first 10 games. Cam Newton suffered two fractures in his back in a rollover car accident earlier in December, but has rushed for a TD in three straight games and has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in rookie Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Pathers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals' last four playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers' last four games versus a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: A slight majority of bettors are backing the Cardinals, with 57 percent of wagers on Arizona +6.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

For as great a rivalry as exists between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, the Ravens have never defeated the Steelers in the playoffs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore square off in the postseason for the fourth time Saturday night when the AFC North rivals meet on the Steelers' home field, where the Ravens suffered their worst loss of 2014. Back on Nov. 2, Baltimore absorbed a 43-23 setback against its biggest rival as Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes, tying Pittsburgh's franchise record.

Roethlisberger will be under center on Saturday, but the Steelers will be without Le'Veon Bell after the league's second-leading rusher hyperextended his right knee in Sunday's 27-17 win against Cincinnati that clinched the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. Sixth-seeded Baltimore snuck into the postseason party by winning three of its final four games, coupled with a loss by San Diego in Week 17. The winner of this game will travel next weekend to face either top-seeded New England or No. 2 seed Denver.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady to this point at Steelers -3. The total opened at 46.5, was bet up to 47 and has come back down to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Ravens - DE Chris Canty (proabale Saturday, ankle), LB Arthur Brown (questionable Saturday, thigh), DT Timmy Jernigan (doubtful Saturday, foot), T Eugene Monroe (doubtful Saturday, ankle). Steelers - S Troy Polamalu (probable Saturday, knee), DT S McLendon (questionable Saturday, shoulder), CB Ike Taylor (questionable Saturday, knee), TE Michael Palmer (questionable Saturday, groin), RB Le'Veon Bell (out Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an 81 percent chance of rain with a 12 mile per hour wind blowing towards the northern end zone. Temperatures will be in
the low 40s for the game.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-6, 7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Baltimore has not scored more than 20 points in a game since Dec. 7, but its defense has allowed an average of 15.7 points during its last three games, including a dominant effort in Week 17 when it held Cleveland to 259 total yards and 3-of-13 third-down conversions. The Ravens defense could be even more dominant Saturday with the return of All-Pro defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who was suspended for the final four games of the regular season for taking a banned stimulant. “I feel like I owe these guys,” Ngata told reporters this week. “I’m going to do whatever I can do to help the team. I’m definitely just ready to get back out there again.” The Ravens quietly set team records for scoring (409 points) and average yards (365), thanks in large part to Joe Flacco (career-high 3,986 passing yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs), Justin Forsett (career-high 1,266 rushing yards) and Steve Smith (1,065 receiving yards).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-5, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): The primary concern for the Steelers is the absence of Bell (1,361 rushing yards), whose injury paves the way for undrafted rookie Josh Harris, third-round pick Dri Archer and/or recently signed Ben Tate to see additional action against the Ravens. "I have confidence in anybody that's on our (53-man roster). If I didn't, they wouldn't be on our 53," said Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, whose team could rely even more on their second-ranked passing attack. Roethlisberger tied for the league lead with 4,952 passing yards, while Antonio Brown caught the second-most balls in a season in NFL history (129) and led the league with 1,698 receiving yards. Pittsburgh's defense will be on the lookout for turnovers, which has been Baltimore's downfall in its previous playoff matchups with Pittsburgh (11 turnovers in three games).

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home playoff games.
* Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Over is 11-1 in the Steelers' last 12 home playoff games.

CONSENSUS: A 62 percent majority of the wagers are backing the Steelers at -3

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**Udog** · 01-03-2015, 08:01 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Round

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

Cardinals’ weakness to dual-threat QBs vs. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton

Arizona gets a good look at two of the top running quarterback in the game four times a year – playing Seattle QB Russell Wilson and 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick in NFC West play. That experience with dual-threat QBs hasn’t helped the Cardinals slow those crazy-legged quarterbacks down, though.

Arizona and its blitz-happy defense has been burned by those two speedy pivots and overall has allowed 350 rushing yards to quarterback on the year (278 of those in the four games vs. Wilson or Kaepernick). Opposing passers have scrambled for an average of 5.93 yards per carry and now Arizona takes on a Grand Daddy of all dual threats: Cam Newton.

Newton’s rushing yards have been limited thanks to early-season injuries but the Panthers’ perfect weapon has been finding his footing with 197 yards on the ground the last four games, including 51 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 17’s win over Atlanta. Cam will have no qualms about breaking off some big gains when Arizona brings the heat Saturday.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

Ravens’ pass rush vs. Steelers’ offense without RB Le’Veon Bell

Pittsburgh has ruled out its dynamic pass-catching running back Le'Veon Bell due to a hyperextended knee suffered in the season finale versus Cincinnati. And that has Baltimore’s defense frothing at the mouth.

With Bell’s ability to break big runs and make plays happen after the catch, defenses have had to stay honest. That’s helped out a Steelers offensive line that has allowed 360 total sacks from 2006-2013. It’s a modern miracle Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have to eat supper through a straw. With Bell keeping blitzes at bay, Pittsburgh has only allowed 33 sacks – its lowest total since 2005.

The Ravens’ pass rush is back among the most feared in the NFL, sacking the QB 49 times this season. Baltimore has recorded 12 sacks in the last three games and got to Roethlisberger five times in the two games versus Pittsburgh this season. Without Bell, the Steelers offense is depending on big strikes to move the chain. Big Ben won’t have much time to let those play develop with the Ravens rushers breathing down his neck.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 49)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton on third down vs. Colts’ third-down defense

Cincinnati doesn’t want to pass the football versus the Colts Sunday. The best plan of attack is to keep Andrew Luck and his arsenal of receivers on the sidelines while the Bengals ground-and-pound with RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Only three teams have run the ball more than Cincinnati the last three games, with the Bengals handing it off 54.41 percent of the time in that span. However, there will be times when Cincy looks to QB Andy Dalton to move the chains on a key series – and Bengals backers will hold their collective breath.

Dalton has been a roll of the dice at times this season – showing zero consistency. But, there is one area where he’s predictable: third and long. Dalton hasn’t been sharp when facing longer third downs, posting a QB rating of 62.45 on third downs of eight or more yards. He’s thrown four of his 17 interceptions in that situation with four sacks and averages just 6.63 yards per completion – well short of the first down marker.

Nobody snuffs out drives like the Colts. Indianapolis is tops in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.17 percent of their third-down opportunities (just 30 percent inside Lucas Oil Stadium). The Colts have recorded 13 sacks, seven tackles for a loss, four forced fumbles (two recovered), and three interceptions on third downs this season.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Lions’ towering receivers vs. Cowboys’ short secondary

Detroit’s offense was supposed to blow away opponents this season, but managed to put up just over 20 points per game and finished 12th in passing offense. Perhaps the Lions’ issue was that they were trying to pick on someone their own size. Detroit marches out a receiving corps that has no trouble getting the cookies down off the top shelf. The Lions have 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson, 6-foot-4 TE Eric Ebron, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew, 6-foot-2 WR Corey Fuller, and 6-foot WR Jeremy Ross.

Those targets will tower over a Dallas secondary that only runs as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church. The Cowboys boast small fries in CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot) and have been bullied by bigger receivers, especially tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 receptions to TEs this year – most in the NFL.

Detroit put up 488 passing yards on Dallas in Ford Field last season and it was the taller receivers who did the most damage: Johnson with 329 yards, departed 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham with 54 yards and Pettigrew with 31 yards. In the meeting before that, Johnson had 96 yards and two touchdowns while Pettigrew totaled 64 yards on six catches. Expect Matt Stafford to exploit this size mismatch once again.

**Udog** · 01-04-2015, 07:24 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Bengals (10-5-1) @ Colts (11-5)-- Indy (-3) blasted Bengals 27-0 in Week 7, week after Cincy's tie with Carolina; Bengals had 135 total yards, were 1-13 on third down and lost badly despite +2 turnover ratio. Home side won last six series games. Bengals lost their last seven games at Indy- their last win here was in '97, when Kelly Holcomb subbed for Jim Harbaugh at QB for Colts. Lewis is 100-95-2 as Bengal coach but 0-5 in playoffs, with four losses by 10+ points. Colts lost four of last five playoff games, rallying back from 38-10 deficit in the only win; they won/covered six of last seven home games with only loss to Patriots. Cincy won four of five road games since Indy loss; they're 6-3 as an underdog. Last four Indy games, six of last eight Bengal games stayed under total.

Lions (11-5) @ Cowboys (12-4)-- In 48-year Super Bowl era, Detroit is 1-10 in playoff games, 0-9 on road, once losing 5-0 to Dallas in '70. Lions' only playoff win was 38-6 at home over Dallas in '91, in Wayne Fontes era. Since '97, Dallas is 1-6 in playoff games; Romo's one playoff win was 34-14 over Philly in '09. Detroit beat Cowboys 34-30/31-10 last two meetings, in '11/'13; Lions won two of last three visits here. Dallas won last four games overall, scoring 41.3 ppg; they're 2-4 as home favorites this year, 7-25 in Garrett era. Stafford played HS ball in Dallas, won Texas state championship; Lions won four of last five games, but are 0-4 as underdogs this year, losing those games by an average of 15 points. Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.

**Udog** · 01-04-2015, 07:33 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 4

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Sunday doubleheader
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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 48.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are in the postseason for the fourth consecutive season but seek their first playoff victory in 24 years when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. To end a drought dating to the 1990 season, the fifth-seeded Bengals need to find a way to avenge a 27-0 drubbing at No. 4 seed Indianapolis on Oct. 19. Star wide receiver A.J. Green missed that matchup against the Colts and is questionable for Sunday due to a concussion.

Indianapolis is in the postseason for the third straight season since using the No. 1 overall pick to draft Andrew Luck, who authored the second-largest playoff comeback in league history in last year's 45-44 victory over Kansas City. "Suppressing Andrew Luck is going to be kind of hard," Cincinnati safety Reggie Nelson said. "He always starts off kind of slow and the scary thing is, he can always get his team going." The Colts have won six of their last eight, but the two losses came in lopsided fashion to a pair of playoff teams in Dallas and New England.

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Colts -4 and that has been adjusted to -3.5. The total opened 49 and is down a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR A.J. Green (Doubtful, head), CB Terence Newman (Probable, illness), TE Jermaine Gresham (Probable, leg), RB Cedric Peerman (Questionable, concussion), WR James Wright (Out, knee), WR Dane Sanzenbacher (IR, concussion). Colts - G Joe Reitz (Probable, ankle), RB Trent Richardson (Probable, illness), TE Dwayne Allen (Probable, knee), LB Bjoern Werner (Probable, shoulder), LB Jerrell Freeman (Probable, hamstring), WR Reggie Wayne (Probable, groin), G Hugh Thornton (Out, shoulder).

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Much has been made of the big-game failures of quarterback Andy Dalton, who is 0-3 with one touchdown and six interceptions in the postseason. Dalton has 19 scoring passes versus 17 picks this season, including a pair against Pittsburgh in last week's showdown for the AFC North title, which is among the reasons Cincinnati will lean heavily on rookie running back Jeremy Hill - even if Green is healthy. The 240-pound Hill was a bit player in the first meeting between the teams but took over the starting job two weeks later and rushed for 100 yards five times in the last nine games, including four of at least 147 yards. The Bengals tied for the AFC lead with 20 interceptions but ranked last in the NFL with 20 sacks.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Luck threw for 344 yards and a pair of TDs against Cincinnati in October, which came during a stretch of eight straight 300-yard games en route to career-best totals of 4,761 yards and an NFL-leading 40 scoring passes. Postseason standout T.Y. Hilton and veteran Reggie Wayne each were hobbled late in the season but expect to be ready to go while tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen must be monitored after hauling in eight TD receptions apiece. The Colts amassed a season-high 171 yards on the ground in the first meeting, but Ahmad Bradshaw is done for the season and Trent Richardson has all but disappeared, leaving Daniel "Boom" Herron as the lead back. Indy allowed at least 30 points in all five of its losses - including 42 apiece to the Patriots and Cowboys.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 61 percent of bettors are backing the Colts.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

The Dallas Cowboys have become synonymous with late-season swoons over the past two decades, but they appear bent on putting an end to that reputation. The Cowboys surged to the NFC East title in spectacular fashion and take a four-game winning streak into Sunday's Wild Card round against the visiting Detroit Lions. Dallas, which has one playoff win since 1996 and is in the postseason for the first time since 2009, averaged a staggering 41.3 points in going 4-0 in December.

The Lions came up short in their bid to secure a first-round bye with a Week 17 loss at NFC North rival Green Bay, but they picked up a huge victory off the field when the NFL reversed a one-game suspension against stud defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The successful appeal by Suh for stepping on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers sets up an intriguing matchup between Detroit's No. 1 rush defense and the Cowboys' second-ranked ground game, featuring the NFL's leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. "The game in a lot of ways may come down to ... that matchup up front," Dallas QB Tony Romo said.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as 7-point home faves, but that is now -6.5. The total opened 48.

INJURY REPORT: Lions - DT Nick Fairley (Doubtful, knee). Cowboys - LB Rolando McClain (Probable, knee), DE Tyrone Crawford (Questionable, illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (Questionable, leg), T Doug Free (Doubtful, ankle).

ABOUT THE LIONS (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U): Detroit allowed a total of 15.5 points during a four-game winning streak - all against teams with losing records - but was gashed for a season-worst 152 rushing yards in the 30-20 loss to the Packers. That more than doubled the per-game average of 69.3 yards allowed by the Lions, who ranked second in the league in points (17.6) and total yards (300.9) allowed while registering 42 sacks and 20 interceptions. Detroit's offense continues to battle inconsistency despite Matthew Stafford going over 4,000 yards passing for the fourth straight season and wideouts Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate each surpassing 1,000 yards. Johnson, who missed three games due to injury, torched the Cowboys last season with a franchise-record 329 yards and a TD on 14 receptions.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Murray ran away with the league rushing title, setting franchise records with 1,845 yards and 12 100-yard games despite undergoing surgery for a broken hand suffered in Week 15. Murray has rushed for six of his 13 touchdowns over the past five games, but Dallas has been equally effective through the air with Dez Bryant hauling in six scoring passes in the last three games en route to a league-best total of 16. The much-maligned Romo played superbly down the stretch to enter the MVP conversation, throwing for 12 touchdowns versus one interception during the four-game winning streak while posting a quarterback rating of at least 129.1 in six of the final nine contests. The Cowboys' defense, which ranked last in 2013, yielded only three first-half TDs during the winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 57 percent of bettors are backing the Cowboys.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Saturday, January 3 - Sunday, January 4)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Saturday, January 3 - Sunday, January 4)

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