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Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible

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  • Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible

    Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible


    The names are different but the situations stay the same.

    Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity – and value – looking for teams in these certain situations.

    We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.

    BOOK I: CAPPING THY COACHES

    One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.

    That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.

    “Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

    Wisconsin is one team undergoing a transformation in the coaching department. The Badgers were stunned when Gary Andersen decided to leave Madison for Oregon State, putting the team and its Outback Bowl battle with Auburn (Wisconsin is a 6.5-point underdog) in the hands of Barry Alvarez.

    This is familiar territory for Alvarez, who stepped in for the departed Bret Bielema in 2012 and coached Wisconsin to a loss versus Stanford in the Rose Bowl. The Badgers are coming off a terrible loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and are dealing with another punch to the stomach following Anderson’s departure. These letdowns could be a lot for Wisconsin to overcome as a program.

    The Badgers grabbed a new head man in former Pittsburgh coach Paul Chryst, who leaves the Panthers up in the air for their bowl matchup with Houston - another team under an interim coach after firing Tony Levine. Defensive coordinator David Gibbs will coach the Cougars in the Armed Forces Bowls as 3-point underdogs on Jan. 2.

    Another school swapping out head coaches is Florida, which parted with Will Muschamp after another disappointing season. The Gators officially cut ties with Muschamp following a Week 12 loss to South Carolina and leave the team in the hands of defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin.

    The team rallied in the final two games, going 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS including a near upset of Florida State in the finale. Programs are courting Durkin and a solid performance versus East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl on Jan. 3 could help him land a new gig. The Gators are touchdown favorites over the Pirates.

    The situation is a little different for another Florida program bowling after a down year. The Miami Hurricanes, coming off a 6-6 campaign, are 3-point favorites over South Carolina in the Independence Bowl on Dec, 27.

    Head coach Al Golden has been the target of animosity from the Coral Gables faithful heading into bowl season, but the athletics department has given Golden the vote of confidence. Players have also come to Golden’s aid, and could hold his job in their hands this postseason. The ax may not fall right away but if push comes to shove, one of the first things an AD will do is size up a coach’s bowl record. Golden lost to Louisville in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl, 36-9, as a 5.5-point underdog. He’s only been to two bowls in four years at Miami despite being eligible each season.

    Here are teams undergoing changes at head coach this bowl season: Colorado State, Florida, Houston, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh.

    BOOK II: DO NOT PLACE MONEY WITHOUT KNOWING MOTIVATION

    Bowl season is many things to many teams.

    To some, it’s the culmination of a hard-fought season. To others, it’s a relief from years of losing. And to a few programs, it’s a reminder of missed opportunities and wasted potential. Understanding the mindset of a bowl team is paramount before placing any bets.

    “Which teams are just happy to be playing in a bowl and which ones are serious about winning?,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “It is important not to write off teams that are disappointed by the bowl game they've drawn, as sometimes that perceived snub can result in a team playing with a big chip on their shoulder and can serve as a motivating factor.”

    No bigger snub was dished out this bowl season than that of the Big 12 when it came to the Final Four teams for the first ever College Football Playoff. Baylor and TCU (which was ranked third in the CFB rankings heading into the final game of the season) were left out of the playoffs and handed big-name bowl matchups instead.

    Baylor, which has only one loss to West Virginia and a win over TCU, settled for a showdown with Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl (BU -3). The Horned Frogs aren’t even playing on New Year’s Day, facing 9-3 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 31 (TCU -3).

    Bettors must determine whether or not these Big 12 programs try to prove the playoff committee wrong by rolling their bowl opponents or if they'll come out flat, disappointed with a season gone sour based on the opinion of a bunch of NCAA suits.

    Alabama suffered from a major letdown in bowl season last year. The Crimson Tide were booked into the national title game until the stunning upset to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Alabama never overcame that loss or the disappointment, and was rolled by Oklahoma 45-31 as a 17-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl.

    Motivation just isn’t reserved for the big boys, though. Programs that barely qualified for bowl eligibility and still earned a berth in a postseason game can often times feel a sense of accomplishment. Covers Expert Art Aronson calls these “Just glad to be there” teams, and has his eye on one program in particular this bowl season.

    “This might take some digging, but there are teams which are just happy to be aboard the gravy train,” says Aronson. “Coaches get a little more job security and players get to brag when they go home for semester break. With dozens of games, it’s a win-win for everyone.”

    He points to the UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns and their bowl matchup with Nevada in the New Orleans Bowl, with oddmakers setting them as 1-point favorites. The Ragin’ Cajuns went 8-4 SU on the season but don’t have any notable wins on their resume and recently lost to FCS Appalachian State, 35-16 at home as 8-point favorites.

    Bettors must also measure the motivation of teams that are ending an extended bowl drought, and determine whether they're feeling a false sense of accomplishment – bound for a letdown – or using that big stage to push the program even further up the food chain.

    The Memphis Tigers earned a postseason showcase for the first time since 2008 after going 9-3 this season, and are 1-point favorites against BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Cougars, however, have been bowling for 10 straight years, going 6-3 SU in the previous nine postseason games, and are used to the bright lights of bowl season.

    South Alabama is another program that is in unfamiliar territory. The Jaguars have cracked a bowl game for first time since jumping from the FCS to FBS six years ago, and are tagged as 2.5-point favorites versus Bowling Green in the inaugural Camellia Bowl. While they could be ripe for a letdown, South Alabama is making the two-hour drive to Montgomery and should have a strong home-field edge at the Cramton Bowl.

    One of the most underlying motivational capping tools is finding a team playing in the same bowl as it did last season. The 2013-14 bowl schedule finds Arkansas State back in the GoDaddy Bowl, set as a 3-point underdog to Toledo. The Red Wolves will have played in four straight GoDaddy Bowls in Mobile, Alabama, including last season’s on Jan. 5, edging Ball State 23-20 as 6.5-point underdogs. They’re 2-1 SU and ATS in their three GoDaddy Bowl appearances.

    “Teams returning to the same minor bowl game they played in last year tend to become dis-interested,” notes Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

    Another program that may not be all that excited for its bowl matchup is San Diego State, which is set to appear in the Poinsettia Bowl for the third time in five years. The Aztecs, who are 3-point favorites versus Navy, are pretty much playing a home game in Qualcomm Stadium. These teams played in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, with SDSU winning 35-14 as a field-goal favorite.

    BOOK III: TIME BETWEEN BOWLS GIVETH AND TAKETH AWAY

    The Ravages of time. Idle hands do the Devil’s work. Time, time time… is my on my side - yes it is!

    All three phrases have everything to do with the time between a college football team’s final game of the regular season and it postseason bowl appearance.

    Some programs are thrust right into the bowl schedule with a small break between the finale, finals and the bowl game. Other teams are collecting dust for almost a month while they prepare for their year-end showcase.

    “The long layoff - several weeks - before the game is played can often lead to bizarre over or under-performance by teams involved,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

    A team that gained momentum late in the year may not have that same mojo working for them in bowl season, thanks to the extended hiatus. Depending on the break between games, programs could be completely different come game day and that opens up a lot of value to go against with oddsmakers setting these lines based on their past accomplishments.

    The gap between the end of the regular season to the bowl game can be more than a month, so what difference does it make if a team won its last six in a row?” asks Covers Expert Art Aronson.

    He points to the Central Florida Knights as an example. They closed the regular season with four straight victories, going 4-0 ATS in that span, but have now been sitting idle for more than three weeks (last game on Dec. 4) before facing North Carolina State as 2-point favorites in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Dec. 26.

    “Central Florida, which somehow managed to lose to Connecticut, gives two points to N.C. State, which played a much tougher schedule and still won three of its last four,” notes Aronson.

    The gap between season finale and bowl game, however, can also work in a team’s favor. A late-season swoon or a rash of injuries toward the end of the year can be remedied by a few weeks off.

    One program that is relishing the bowl break is Penn State. The Nittany Lions dropped their final two games of the schedule – losing to Illinois and Michigan State – and finished with 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight games.

    Penn State is slated to face Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 27, giving head coach James Franklin plenty of time to study his opponent and get his players in the right frame of mind for what will be the program’s first bowl appearance since the Sandusky scandal. Not only is PSU anxious to turn the page on that ugly chapter but the time off will allow LB Brandon Bell to return from a shoulder injury. He missed the final two games of the season and is an important cog to the Nittany Lions’ running defense.

    Some other programs returning key players thanks to the time off are Oklahoma and QB Trevor Knight, as well as Marshall and RB Devon Johnson.

    Knight suffered a neck injury versus Baylor on Nov. 8 but with the Sooners not taking the field against Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl until Dec. 29 – and Knight cleared to play – OU’s offense could be back in top form by then. He passed for 2,197 yards and 14 touchdowns before getting hurt.

    The Thundering Herd should have their biggest weapon back at full strength after running back Devon Johnson was limited down the home stretch. Johnson, who rushed for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns, was nursing a bum shoulder and saw his workload trimmed significantly in the final two games of the year. Marshall is a 10-point favorite against Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl on Dec. 23.

    But while the bowl break has allowed those teams – and many others – to heal up, other programs are wishing the postseason game would just get here already. Every bowl season is plagued with news of player suspensions, from either academics or off-field issues, as well as player injuries suffered in the limited practices allowed during bowl prep.

    Arkansas threw the book at two important members of its secondary last week, suspending corner Carroll Washington and safety Rohan Gaines for violating team policy. Both were regular rotation players for the Razorbacks defense. Arkansas is a 6-point favorite facing Texas in the Texas Bowl on Dec. 29.

    These will likely not be the only suspensions handed out between now and the end of bowl season. With finals over and classes done, as well as practices limited by NCAA rules, players don’t have the same structured schedule to keep them busy and out of trouble. And trips home over the holidays have been the catalyst for many suspensions with players getting into fights and violating team rules while visiting with friends and family.

    Last season, Oregon’s top tight end Pharaoh Brown was suspended for the Alamo Bowl for his role in a snowball fight on campus. An online video captured the hijinks, which included pelting cars with snow as well as hitting a professor with snowballs and dumping snow through the car window.

    On the injury front, Tennessee lost one of its top targets in wide receiver Jason Croom, who injured his knee in practice last Sunday. Croom caught 21 balls for 305 yards and was tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns. This injury is especially tough for the Volunteers, who have already lost four members of the receiving corps to injury this season. Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite over Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl on Jan. 2.

    Local media are usually the first sources to report on these issues, so keeping a close ear to the ground and anticipating either injury or disciplinary news is the best way to stay ahead of the bookmakers during the bowl break.

    BOOK IV: BE MINDFUL OF MILES BURNED DURING BOWL SEASON

    Earning a spot on the college football bowl calendar is not only rewarding for the money poured into the program or the chance to play in a nationally showcased game.

    For many players, a bowl games means a chance to get outside of the norm – to get off campus and travel to far-off exotic places. For some teams, though, bowl season can often mean a two-hour bus trip down the highway, which has its positives and negatives.

    “Some teams, or at least their fan bases, have the benefit of staying close to home, leading to a home-field advantage,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “With that being said, not getting to travel can hurt the motivation of the players taking the field. It really is a double-edged sword.”

    There are a number of programs staying close to home this bowl season, none more than San Diego State. The Aztecs went 7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS in the regular season and were rewarded with a home game against Navy at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 23. While having the home-field edge is big – and oddsmakers have set SDSU as a 2.5-point chalk for the Poinsettia Bowl – there could be some letdown from the Aztecs, who are home for the holidays for the third time in five years.

    Another bowl competitor making a short trip this postseason is Stanford, which could pretty much hold a half marathon and be at its bowl game in Santa Clara – a mere 13 miles (22-minute drive) from Palo Alto. In fact, that seems like a brilliant conditioning/bounding exercise for the Cardinal (Oh, how’d you guys get here? We ran…).

    Books have Stanford pegged as a two-touchdown Foster Farms Bowl favorite versus Maryland, which actually makes the longest trip this bowl season. The Terrapins, at 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS, cross the country on a 2,425-mile hike. It’s safe to say the Terrapins, who have a 31-day layoff between games, will be in enemy territory on Dec. 30.

    Other teams putting some miles on the frequent-flyer card in the next month are Navy (2,302-mile trip to San Diego for Poinsettia Bowl), BYU (2,066-mile trip to Miami for the Miami Beach Bowl), and Nevada (1,805-mile trip to New Orleans for New Orleans Bowl).

    Florida State has to jump the country for its showdown with Oregon (-9.5) in the Rose Bowl – a 1,986-mile leap – but the Seminoles are used to these types of challenges and have a rapid fan base that travels extremely well, especially for a New Year’s Day bowl game.

    Measuring how much of a home-field edge teams will have for the true neutral-site games is tough. Looking back at road records is a good indicator of how a program performs out of its element but if you want to gauge how the percentage of school colors in the stands you should keep a close eye on ticket sales.

    Every bowl team is allotted a certain number of tickets to sell to its faithful. Often times, location (is it a vacation destination like Florida or California?), opponent (is it even worth going to see?), and time of the month (close to Christmas or New Year’s?) have a huge impact on whether fans will travel to the game or not.

    Heading into the first weekend of bowl action, Air Force is having a tough time selling its share of tickets for the Idaho Potato Bowl. The Falcons play Western Michigan (-1) – not a marquee team by any means – and are asking fans to leave Colorado Springs to come to Boise on short notice. Not even the “Smurf Turf” of Albertsons Stadium can get Air Force butts in the seats.

    Even the lure of the Sunshine State isn’t enough to get football fans on the move this bowl season. Iowa is reporting “sluggish” tickets sales for the Hawkeyes’ showdown with Tennessee (-3.5) in the TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida on Jan. 2. According to the school, Iowa hasn’t even sold half of its 8,000-ticket allotment while the Volunteers, who have a proximity edge, sold out their 8,000 tickets a few days after the bowl matchup was announced.

    Some friendly faces can go a long way when these programs hit the highway for their bowl games. That home-field feel may just before the difference when spreads get tight this postseason.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    That's almost as long as the bible

    Lol


    Thanks Dust
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