12/21 NFL Plays

[st bobby]

Today I like a few games. I suck really bad in the NFL this year. When I have a good day so it seems I get back doored by a few late tds.

Today
Minnesota +4.5 I should have gotten this earlier. The line moved so far down I am tempted to bet Miami or leave the game alone.

Chicago +9.5 Only jumping on this one cause the line moved so much. Also Detroit is in the playoffs already with Eagles loss yesterday.

KC Chiefs +2.5 I actually got this line at 3 last night.

Houston +6.5 Also this line moved so I am jumping on this one. I do love Keenum at qb. But he hasn't showed what I felt he could in College. Maybe today?

Indy +3.5 Cowboys are 3-17 ATS when favored coming off a win.

[st bobby]

Heres some trends that back up my picks as well.


Dolphins, as a home favorite: 12-37 ATS (back to 2003)
Dolphins, as a home favorite of 6 or more points: 1-13 ATS

***MORE

Vikings in last ten weeks have yielded 36 sacks (4 last week)

Vikings in December: 10-1 ATS

[Minny] NFL road underdogs directly off road loss: 168-104-3 (62% since 2003)

[st bobby]

Detroit struggles on road [25-42-3 ATS from 2006]
Worse on grass [covered only 5 of 16]
Worse as road favorites: 4-16 ATS

Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 7 of 26 times

Detroit in December: 3-12 ATS (last four seasons)

Lions have lost only ONCE ATS last 9 games vs. Bears

***MORE

Detroit (overall since 2011): 25-37-1 ATS

Detroit on 2 or more game winning streak: 9-18 ATS

[st bobby]

[Bears ] NFL team playing 3rd straight home game, losing first two: 20-9-1 ATS

[Bears] NFL teams the week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 56-91-4 ATS (since 2005)

[st bobby]

Eye-Popping Trend

Steelers have lost 15 of 16 games ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati

KC on road

Last 16 road games, Chiefs have lost only 3 TIMES against the spread

Andy Reid has excelled away from home
covering an amazing 62% of road games in his career (83-51 ATS)

Hard To Believe

Chiefs have not allowed a 300-yard passer this season

KC Wide Receivers have ZERO touchdown catches this season!

***MORE

Alex Smith last 56 games as a starter: 39-16-1 SU

Road team in KC games: 13-6 ATS

[st bobby]

The early line on this game
(before last Sunday)
had Houston actually favored

But with Fitzpatrick now OUT
and Case Keenum IN
the spread has moved 6 FULL points!

But that is NOT justified
Keenum started 8 games for Houston last season
playing not much worse than average
producing a quarterback rating in 2013 better
than Joe Flacco and better than Eli Manning

He was with Houston’s new coaching staff during training camp
and throughout the preseason

and he’ll have Wide Receiver Andre Johnson back
against Baltimore cornerbacks severely thinned by injuries

***MORE

Road team has covered only 11 of last 31 Ravens games

Ravens secondary extremely thin (due to injury)

[st bobby]

Dallas has a below average home field advantage
covering only 7 of their last 29 as home favorite

Vegas ranks Indy as 2 points better than Dallas.

Cowboys leader DeMarco Murray will be less than 100%

When Dallas is favored after winning the last game
(giving them another reason to lose focus)
the Cowboys are 3-17 against the spread

Motivation?

So the market is likely questing Colts motivation in order for line of Dallas -3 to make sense.

***MORE

Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 20-5 SU (17-7-1 ATS) at home; 13-11 SU on road (13-11 ATS)

Andrew Luck: 29-16-1 ATS during regular season in his career

Colts in December: 11-4-1 ATS

Colts outgained by Texans last week

Andrew Luck has the most first half turnovers in the NFL this season (13)

--

The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (55-23 ATS since 2010)

Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 33% of games in December (13-26-1)
(with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)

On a per snap basis, Dallas defense just as bad as last year – but since offense is controlling the ball, they benefit from having to defend 10 LESS snaps per game on average.

Murray has rushed for 100 yards or more 11 of 14 games this season
As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 6 of last 19

[CheCheBoFumbe]

I like Indy too lets bring it in.

[jcindaville]

Good luck Bobby

[Sirporkie]

Gl!

[LuckyLuch]

BOL today Pal!!! Thx for posting everything today! I Am definately on board!

Pulling for Indy!!!!!!!!

[st bobby]

3-2 Ill take it. Indy didn't show up had nothing to prove.

Im reading a book now about smart money in vegas. A guy ran bets for the Brain Trust. It sounded like something I would have loved to do. But reading this book I would never have liked it. You are constantly looking over your shoulder, constantly watched by both sides (vegas and the brains). Im about half way through it and I think I picked up a valuable tidbit. I will post in a new thread cause I want more to see it and get some input. But my whole spew was about the fact you only have to hit 3 out of 5 regularly and that is what the brain trust did over the years.