NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (Saturday, December 20 - Sunday, January 4)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 27

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Holiday Bowl Betting Preview: Nebraska vs. USC
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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. USC Trojans (-7, 62)

Game to be played at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

1. USC is playing in the Holiday Bowl for the first time while No. 22 Nebraska will have an interim coach when the teams face off on Dec. 27 in San Diego. Trojans coach Steve Sarkisian is looking to avoid a five-loss campaign in his first season as coach. The Cornhuskers fired Bo Pelini and have hired Mike Riley away from Oregon State but Barney Cotton will serve as the interim coach for the bowl game.

2. Cotton has been on the Nebraska coaching staff for eight years and also was an offensive lineman at the school. He has made it his quest to get the players ready to give a supreme effort despite all the uncertainty surrounding the program. “We know that we’ve got one last chance together,” Cotton told reporters. “That’s our future here, and then I hope and pray that everybody gets an opportunity to do what they want to do next year.”

3. Both schools are known for being high-profile football factories and powers in the sport. But this contest will mark only the fifth meeting with USC holding a 3-0-1 edge. The most-recent matchup was in 2007, when the top-ranked Trojans posted a 49-31 victory at Nebraska.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at USC -5.5 before quickly jumping to -6.5. It sat there for several days before settling at -7. The opening total (61) has seen a modest 1-point jump (62).

INJURY REPORT: Nebraska - DE Randy Gregory (Ques-Undisclosed), WR Alonzo Moore (Ques-Undisclosed) USC - LB Lamar Dawson (Ques-Knee),

WEATHER FORECAST: Clear skies and minimal winds are expected, with temperatures in the mid-50°F.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): The Cornhuskers average 37.4 points per game with running back Ameer Abdullah (1,523 yards, 18 touchdowns), who topped 200 rushing yards four times this season, the star attraction. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. passed for 2,314 yards and 19 scores and rushed for 664 yards and five touchdowns, while receiver Kenny Bell had 717 yards and five touchdowns on 40 receptions. Defensively, Nebraska allows an average of 24.8 points and receives strong contributions from weak-side linebacker Zaire Anderson (team-best 95 tackles), defensive end Randy Gregory (team-leading seven sacks) and safety Nate Gerry (five interceptions).

ABOUT USC (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U): The Trojans average 35.1 points as standout quarterback Cody Kessler is in the midst of an outstanding season, passing for 3,505 yards and 36 touchdowns against four interceptions. Running back Javorius “Buck” Allen has 1,337 yards – topping 100 yards eight times – and big-play receiver Nelson Agholor has 97 receptions for 1,223 yards and 11 touchdowns. USC gives up 23.8 points per game and the star defenders include defensive end Leonard Williams (six sacks), inside linebacker Hayes Pullard (team-leading 87 tackles) and outside linebacker Su’a Cravens (team-best 16 tackles for losses).

TRENDS:

*Cornhuskers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
*Trojans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten.
*Under is 6-1 in Cornhuskers last 7 Bowl games.
*Under is 7-0-1 in Trojans last 8 games in December.

CONSENSUS: 67.66 percent of users are backing USC -7, with 64 percent on the over.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 27


Chance of thunderstorms in Independence Bowl

Forecasts are calling for an 82 percent chance of thunderstorms in Shreveport, Louisiana as the Miami Hurricanes face the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Duck Commander Independence Bowl Saturday.

Temperatures will be in the low-60s by gametime and wind will be blowing to the south endzone at around eight mph.

Most shops are dealing South Carolina +3.5 with kickoff just hours away. The total is currently 61.


Blue Devils move to +7 early Saturday morning

The Duke Blue Devils and Arizona State Sun Devils are set to square off in the Hyundai Sun Bowl and odds are beginning to move to Duke +7.5 with the 2 PM ET kickoff approaching.

The Blue Devils opened as 8-point underdogs at most shops but a few books have adjusted to Duke +7 early Saturday morning. Both the Westgate LV Superbook and Station Casinos in Las Vegas had +7.5 on their boards overnight and moved the number to match what a few offshore books have as well.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Texas Bowl, Houston 12/29
Arkansas coach Bielema lost last 12 games that were decided by 7 points or less. Texas-Arkansas used to be rivals in old SWC; teams last met in '08. Longhorns won three of last four games to get to be bowl eligible at 6-6. Strong was 3-2 in his bowls at Louisville, Bielema 2-4 at Wisconsin; Texas is 3-2 in last five bowls, Arkansas 2-3 in its last five (last bowl in '11). Texas is 4-2 in games with single digit spreads; Hogs are 5-2. SEC teams are 19-8 SU in last 27 bowls. Underdogs covered four of last five Texas bowls, with four of five staying under total. Under is 15-7 in last 22 bowls involving a Big X team.

Russell Athletic Bowl, Orlando 12/29
Clemson DC Venables spent eight years on Oklahoma staff; Tigers won their last two bowls by total of six points. Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread this year in bowls incolving an ACC team. Oklahoma won four of its last five bowls, but none of those were east of New Orleans; Sooners split their last eight games after 4-0 start; they allowed 30+ points in six of last nine games. Tigers are 1-4 in games with single digit spread; Sooners are 1-3 in such games. Favorites won/covered this bowl last three years; last five Russell Bowls stayed under total. Clemson QB Watson is out; Sooner QB Knight is banged up- they've been riding frosh RB Perine. .

Liberty Bowl, Memphis 12/29
West Virginia senior QB Trickett (concussions) has given up football, so Mountaineers turn to JC QB Howard (36-65 passing, five TDs, 0 INT), who started one game. WVa lost three of last four bowls, winning 70-33 two years ago in Orange Bowl, in Geno Smith's last college game. Texas A&M won last three bowls, scoring 42 ppg; Aggies are 0-5 this season in games with single digit spread; they lost five of last seven games after a 5-0 start. WVa lost three of last four games; they're 3-5 in games with single digit spread. Both sides have very young QBs, but have history os scoring lot of points in bowls. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Liberty Bowls.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, December 29

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Russell Athletic Bowl betting preview: Oklahoma vs. Clemson
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Oklahoma Sooners vs. Clemson Tigers (+3.5, 52)

Game to be played at Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida

The irony of the 2014 Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando, Fla., is that while neither No. 18 Clemson nor Oklahoma are playing for the national championship, they are only one year removed from defeating two teams that are competing against each other for this year’s crown. The Tigers claimed the Orange Bowl on Jan. 3 by rallying past Ohio State while the Sooners staged one of last year’s biggest postseason surprises by upsetting Alabama in the Sugar Bowl a day earlier. The Buckeyes and Crimson Tide meet each other in this year’s Sugar Bowl in one of the two semifinal games in the inaugural College Football Playoff.

Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year Samaje Perine finished his first season with a flurry, amassing 791 rushing yards over the last three games – the most by any player over a similar stretch in Oklahoma history. Included in that incredible total was his FBS-record 427-yard, five-touchdown performance against Iowa State. Perine’s 1,579 yards rushing for the season places him in 10th place on the single-season rushing list in FBS history for a freshman and ranks seventh in school history.

Standing in Perine’s way will be the top-ranked total defense in the country in Clemson, which allows 259.6 yards. The Tigers won eight of their last nine games after their defense began to shut down opponents, surrendering 92.5 yards on the ground and 134.6 through the air over that span. Clemson also leads the nation in tackles for loss (122) and yards allowed per play (4.03) while ranking third in pass defense (161.9) and seventh in rushing defense (97.7).

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma opened as 3-point favorites and have been bet a half-point to sit at -3.5. The total has dropped from 54 to 52.

INJURY REPORT: Oklahoma - QB Trevor Knight (probable Monday, head), RB Samjae Perine (probable Monday, ankle), WR Sterling Shepard (probable Monday, groin), OL Adam Shead (questionable Monday, knee), DT Matthew Romar (questionable Monday, undisclosed), DE Geneo Grisson (questionable Monday, knee), DB Quentin Hayes (questionable Monday, ankle). Clemson - TE D.J. Greenlee (questionable Monday, knee), TE Jay McCullough (questionable Monday, suspension), DB Martin Jenkins (questionable Monday, foot), S T.J. Green (questionable Monday, hamstring), QB Deshaun Watson (out Monday, knee), TE Stanton Seckinger (out Monday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 70's. There will also be a 13 percent chance of rain and a slight five mile per hour wind blowing towards the north end zone.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (8-4, 5-7 ATS, 9-3 O/U): Quarterback Trevor Knight, who was named the MVP of the Sooners’ Sugar Bowl win over Alabama after throwing for career highs of 348 yards and four touchdowns, has been cleared to play after sustaining a neck injury in a Nov. 8 loss to Baylor. His three-game absence coincided with Perine’s late-season explosion as the Sooners averaged 97.3 passing yards with redshirt freshman Cody Thomas starting, as opposed to 250.1 yards with Knight. Oklahoma also anticipates a healthy return from leading receiver Sterling Shepard, who missed most of the last five games with a lingering groin injury.

ABOUT CLEMSON (9-3, 5-7 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The ringleader of the Tigers’ defense is two-time All-American Vic Beasley, who leads the ACC in sacks this year with 11 and has a school-record 32 in his career – tied for fifth in conference history. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year was one of four Clemson defensive players to be named to the all-conference first team, joining defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, cornerback Garry Peters and linebacker Stephone Anthony. Senior quarterback Cole Stoudt, who started seven games, will slide back into the starting role after the school announced that freshman Deshaun Watson would not continue to play through the same torn ACL he did in a Nov. 29 win over South Carolina.

TRENDS:

* Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
* Clemson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Oklahoma's last seven games following a SU loss.
* Under is 7-1 in Clemson's last eight games overall.

CONSENSUS: The majority of bettors are backing Oklahoma with 63 percent of wagers on the Sooners at -3.5.


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[crswir]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Arkansas vs. Texas

The Longhorns face Arkansas in the Texas Bowl following a 48-10 loss to TCU in the regular season finale and come into the contest with a 14-2 ATS record in their last 16 games after a double-digit defeat at home. Texas is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 29
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/28)
Game 237-238: Texas A&M vs. West Virginia (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 92.522; West Virginia 96.359
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 4; 69
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 1; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-1); Over


Game 239-240: Oklahoma vs. Clemson (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 96.767; Clemson 97.141
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 6; 53
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+6); Under


Game 241-242: Arkansas vs. Texas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 98.699; Texas 100.743
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 49
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+6 1/2); Over


TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/28)
Game 243-244: Notre Dame vs. LSU (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 87.320; LSU 101.224
Dunkel Line: LSU by 14; 47
Vegas Line: LSU by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-7); Under


Game 245-246: Georgia vs. Louisville (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 101.435; Louisville 97.368
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Georgia by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+7); Under


Game 247-248: Maryland vs. Stanford (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 86.199; Stanford 108.777
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 22 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Stanford by 14; 48
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-14); Over


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/28)
Game 249-250: Mississippi vs. TCU (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 111.433; TCU 112.337
Dunkel Line: TCU by 1; 62
Vegas Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+3 1/2); Over


Game 251-252: Boise State vs. Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 101.458; Arizona 103.064
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+3 1/2); Under


Game 253-254: Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 104.968; Georgia Tech 106.143
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 1; 55
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 7; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+7); Under

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, December 29


West Virginia trending towards under in Liberty Bowl

West Virginia will meet Texas A&M in the Autozone Liberty Bowl in a matchup that is trending towards the under.

The Mountaineers enter the game, where the total is currently sitting at 66.5, having gone under the game total in eight consecutive games.

To add to the trend, the Aggies have done under the total in their last four games following a straight up loss. The under is also 5-2 in Texas A&M's last seven non-conference games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, December 29

West Virginia vs. Texas A&M
GAME BREAKDOWN: While West Virginia went 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in November, Texas A&M dropped five of its final seven games SU and was 1-7 ATS in its final eight contests.
The Mountaineers love to air out the football with 314.6 passing YPG (9th in nation), thanks to star WR Kevin White (1,318 rec yards, 9 TD). Texas A&M has averaged 306.4 YPG
(12th in FBS), with freshman Kyle Allen tossing 8 TDs over his past three games.

• TEXAS A&M is 2-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the L2 seasons.
• TEXAS A&M is 1-9 ATS versus good o„ensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game over the L2 seasons.
• W VIRGINIA is 7-0 UNDER after playing 2 straight conference games this season.

Clemson vs. Oklahoma
GAME BREAKDOWN: Both participants in this bowl have major questions at starting quarterback. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson (14 TD, 2 INT) is out with a knee injury, while Oklahoma QB Trevor Knight (14 TD, 9 INT) has a neck injury, but is expected to play. The Tigers have allowed only 17.6 PPG this season (7th in FBS), but the Sooners average 38.9 PPG on offense (11th in nation) including 43.7 ppg in non-home games. Both teams have been poor wagers since October as both schools are 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games.

• CLEMSON is 7-0 UNDER o„ a home win by 17 points or more over the L2 seasons. • Dabo Swinney is 9-1 ATS away after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as coach of Clemson


Texas vs. Arkansas
GAME BREAKDOWN: Two big-name programs try to finish the 2014 campaign with a winning record. Both defenses have stood tall at times this year, with Arkansas holding seven teams to 17 points or fewer, and Texas limiting five teams to 16 points or fewer. The Razorbacks love to run the football with their two 1,000-yard backs in Jonathan Williams (11 TD) and Alex Collins (12 TD), while Longhorns QB Tyrone Swoopes (13 TD, 10 INT) tries to feed top WR John Harris (1,015 rec yards, 7 TD).

Charlie Strong is 13-0 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses.
Charlie Strong is 9-0 ATS away after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.
Charlie Strong is 8-0 ATS away o„ a home loss.

[Udog]

Never mind! Wrong thread...

[IMALLABOUTMONEY]

12/29/14 ncaaf teaser

Arkansas -1 & under 50 7 pt teaser glllllllllllllll

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Foster Farms Bowl, San Francisco 12/30
Stanford should have big crowd edge playing in Bay Area; their best WR Montgomery (61 catches) is out here. Cardinal split pair of Rose Bowls last two years, fair to question their enthusiasm for a lesser bowl, even if it is near home. Edsall is 3-3 in bowls, losing 31-20 to Marshall LY in his first bowl with Terps. Maryland is 3-4 in last seven games, with three of losses by 22+ points; Stanford is 3-5 as favorite this year- they won last two games by 21 points each, after losing three of previous four games. Shaw lost two of his three bowl games. Favorites won/covered this game four of last five years, with four of five staying under total.

Belk Bowl, Charlotte 12/30
Louisville DC Grantham was Georgia's DC the last four years; he should have great idea on Dawgs' personnel. Louisville scored 30+ points in its last five games, winning last three by 19-3-4 after losing to Florida State 42-31- they're 5-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Louisville won four of last five bowls,.with the loss in this game to NC State three years ago. Petrino is 4-3 in bowl games, Richt is 8-5 but lost three of last four, despite being favored in all four games- all three losses were by 5 or less points. Georgia allowed 30+ points in all three losses; they're 4-1 in games with single digit spreads. Faves covered 4 of last 5 Belk Bowls.

Music City Bowl, Nashville 12/30
Notre Dame gives backup QB Zaire his first career start here; Irish lost last four games, allowing 44.5 ppg- they gave up 244.8 rushing yards a game in last five games, bad news vs LSU team that ran for 264+ yards in its last three wins, including 384 in regular season finale vs A&M. ND is 3-2 in last five bowls, Kelly is 4-3 as bowl coach. SEC teams are 3-0 in this bowl season, are 21-7 in last 28 bowls. 14-9-1 against spread when favored. LSU split its last four bowls; Miles is 7-5 as bowl coach, 6-3 in Baton Rouge. Favorites won/covered four of last five Music City Bowls, with SEC teams winning last three by 6-14-8 points.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, December 30

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Belk Bowl betting preview: Georgia vs. Louisville
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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Louisville Cardinals (+6.5, 56.6)

Game to be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

The 13th annual Belk Bowl will play host to two top 20 teams for the first time in its history when No. 13 Georgia and No. 20 Louisville meet for the first time. The Bulldogs, who are the first SEC team to be invited to Charlotte, N.C., enter the 50th bowl game in their proud history after winning eight of their final 10 contests. The Cardinals also finished the regular season strong by going 7-2 down the stretch, with the only losses coming to No. 2 Florida State and No. 18 Clemson.

In a season marked with a number of highs (routs of SEC East champion Missouri and Auburn) and lows (losses to six-win teams in South Carolina and Florida), Georgia running back Nick Chubb was one of the few constants. After losing Heisman Trophy hopeful Todd Gurley to a season-ending knee injury on Oct. 11, the SEC Freshman of the Year closed the year out by running for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of his seven starts. With another 100-yard performance against Louisville, Chubb can tie Bulldog legend Herschel Walker for the most such efforts by a Georgia freshman.

The Cardinals’ sixth-ranked total defense could enjoy a significant advantage considering defensive coordinator Todd Grantham served in the same role for the Bulldogs under Georgia coach Mark Richt from 2010-13. Louisville also boasts the third-best rushing defense in the country (93.7 yards) and has yielded only nine scores on the ground. The Cardinals are slightly less accomplished against the pass (31st, 199.6), but finished the regular season tied for first in FBS with 25 interceptions.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Georgia opened as 6.5-point favorites and were bet to -7, before coming back down to the opening number. The total has held steady at 56.5

INJURY REPORT: Georgia - RB A.J. Turman (questionable Tuesday, toe), RB Keith Marshall (questionable Tuesday, ankle), WR Isaiah McKenzie (out Tuesday, suspension), LB Leonard Floyd (out, Tuesday). Louisville - QB Reggie Bonnafon (probable Tuesday, knee), RB Michael Dyer (out Tuesday, academics).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 40's for the game. There will be a 10 percent chance of rain with a five mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.

ABOUT GEORGIA (9-3, 7-5 ATS, 9-3 O/U): Thanks in large part to Chubb (12) and Gurley (nine), Georgia ran for a conference-leading 35 rushing touchdowns – a total that trails only the 1971 Bulldog team that finished with 39. Hutson Mason, who was one of three Georgia quarterbacks to combine for a completion percentage of 68.1, saw his six-game streak without throwing an interception snapped on his final attempt in the Nov. 29 overtime loss to Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs finished the regular season with a plus-15 turnover differential – tied for fourth in FBS – and scored 104 points off their 26 takeaways.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (9-3, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U): Sophomore All-American safety Gerod Holliman emerged as the country’s best ball hawk in 2014 with 14 interceptions, matching the NCAA single-season record held by Al Worley of Washington in 1968 and becoming only the 11th player in NCAA history to record 12 or more in a season. The Cardinals’ offense also finished the season on a roll, scoring 30 or more points in five straight games. That streak coincided with the return of receiver DeVante Parker, who posted team-high totals of 35 catches, 735 yards and five touchdowns despite missing seven contests with a left toe injury.

TRENDS:

* Georgia is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Louisville is 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Over is 12-3 in Georgia's last 15 games following a SU loss.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Louisville's last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: The majority of bettors are backing Georgia, with 63 percent of wagers on the Bulldogs -6.5.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Orange Bowl, Miami 12/31
Georgia Tech lost four of last five bowls, scoring 17.2 ppg; extra time to prep helps against one-dimensional option attack. Tech lost this game to Iowa 24-14 (-6) five years ago. Johnson is 3-7 in bowl games. Miss State was #1 in country as late as mid-November; they lost two of last three games overall after 9-0 start. State won four of last five bowls (Mullen won three of four bowls); they're 3-1 in games with single digit spread. Tech is 7-2 in such games. Jackets covered last six games, scored 30+ in six of last seven games. Think grass field helps Miss State, slower track, less precise. Underdogs are 3-2 in last five Orange Bowls.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale AZ 12/31
Arizona is 6-1 this season in games decided by 7 or less points, they're 4-4 in games with single digit spread. RichRod is 4-4 in bowls, but 2-0 with Arizona, winning 49-48/42-19 last two years. Boise State scored an average of 47.8 ppg in winning last eight games after loss at Air Force in October had them at 3-2; they're 4-0 in games with a single digit spread, also won four of last five bowls, losing to Oregon St. LY. Boise State beat TCU 17-10 (+7) in this game five years ago, also had their famous upset of Oklahoma here eight years ago. Dogs are 3-2 vs spread in Fiesta Bowl last five years, with three of last four going over total.

Peach Bowl, Atlanta 12/31
TCU thinks they got hosed out of 4-team playoff; they're right, but as far as this game goes, will Horned Frogs come to play? Its only question in this game that matters. SEC opponent figures to motivate them, no? Ole Miss won/covered its last five bowl games, allowing 10.3 ppg in last three; TCU is 3-2 in last five bowls (0-5 vs spread), scoring only 19 ppg, with all five decided by 7 or less points. Ole Miss lost three of last five games after a 7-0 start; this is consolation prize. Underdogs covered three of last four Peach Bowls; SEC teams lost three of last four visits here; they're 4-1 in bowls so far this month, 22-8 in last 30 overall.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 31

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Chick-Fil-A Bowl Betting Preview: Ole Miss vs. TCU
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Mississippi Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-3.5, 56.5)

Game to be played at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

1. The biggest challenge facing TCU when it competes in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl may not be the talented Ole Miss team across the line, but overcoming the disappointment of being left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff. The Horned Frogs were third in the penultimate CFP rankings, but plummeted out of the top four when Ohio State's 59-0 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game trumped TCU's 55-3 thrashing of Iowa State in its regular-season finale. "We need to move on,” Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson told reporters. “The players want to finish this season like they started. They’re excited about coming to Atlanta.”

2. The Rebels were part of the CFP equation and were No. 3 in the USA Today Coaches Poll after starting 7-0, but back-to-back losses to LSU (10-7) and Auburn (35-31) ended their championship dreams, so they could be in a better place than the Horned Frogs mentally. "To be one of the first teams chosen in the New Year's six bowls and to come to a place that is extremely dear to us in Atlanta and particularly the Peach Bowl … we're honored," Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze told reporters. The Rebels' season ends in the same venue it began as they opened 2014 with a 35-13 victory over Boise State at the Georgia Dome on Aug. 28.

3. The Peach Bowl features the No. 1 scoring defense in Ole Miss (13.8 points per game) against TCU's No. 2 scoring offense (46.8). The Horned Frogs are led by junior dual-threat quarterback Trevone Boykin, a second-team All-America selection, who finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, while senior defensive back Senquez Golson (second in the nation with nine interceptions) stars for the Rebels. “I don’t think it can get any better than it is right now,” Boykin told reporters about TCU's attack.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at TCU -3.5, the line has since bounced between -3 and -3.5. The total opened at 56.5 and has dropped to 56 at some books.

INJURY REPORT: Ole Miss - OL Aaron Morris (Out-Knee) TCU - WR Kolby Listenbee (Ques-Concussion), RB B.J. Catalon (Qut-Upper Body), DL Mike Tuana (Out-Shoulder)

ABOUT OLE MISS (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 2-9 O/U): Senior quarterback Bo Wallace tossed for 3,085 yards and 22 touchdowns while leading an offense that averages 30.4 points, but threw 11 interceptions and was sacked 26 times. While Golson patrols the secondary, freshman defensive end Marquis Haynes boasts a team-best 7.5 sacks while junior defensive back Mike Hilton leads the Rebels in tackles (66) and solo tackles (44). The Rebels play in a bowl game for the third straight season and have won six straight, including 25-17 over Georgia Tech in last year's Music City Bowl and 38-17 over Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl to end the 2012 season.

ABOUT TCU (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS, 8-4 O/U): Boykin passed for 3,714 yards and 30 touchdowns while rushing for 642 yards and eight scores, and will likely be the preseason Heisman favorite in 2015. Juniors Aaron Green (team-best 854 yards, eight TDs) and B.J. Catalon (team-high 10 touchdowns) help power the running game while juniors Josh Doctson (16.3 yards per 59 catches and nine TDs) and Deante' Gray (16.6 yards per 34 receptions, eight TDs) are Boykin's favorite targets. The Horned Frogs return to the postseason after not playing in a bowl game last season for only the second time in 16 years.

TRENDS:

*Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
*Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Under is 12-2 in Rebels last 14 games overall.
*Over is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games on fieldturf.

CONSENSUS: 70.18 percent of users are backing TCU -3.5, with 68.3 percent on the over.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 31

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Fiesta Bowl betting preview: Boise State vs. Arizona
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Boise State Broncos vs. Arizona Wildcats (-3, 67.5)

Game to be played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Rich Rodriguez has gone from an ostracized failure at Michigan to a beloved figure at Arizona as he guides the No. 11 Wildcats against No. 21 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on Dec. 31. Rodriguez was fired as Wolverines coach after the 2010 season and Michigan is again looking for a coach while Rodriguez was named Pac-12 Coach of the Year after winning 10 games in his third season. The Broncos are coached by Bryan Harsin, who had an 11-2 record in his first season as coach after replacing Chris Petersen.

Boise State landed the Fiesta Bowl bid as the highest-ranked team from the five minor FBS conferences. The College Football Playoff guaranteed a spot to the best team from the non-major leagues and the Broncos captured the berth with eight consecutive victories, the final one coming against Fresno State in the Mountain West title game. Boise State is no stranger to the Fiesta Bowl, notching the famous 43-42 overtime upset of Oklahoma following the 2006 regular season and also defeated TCU 17-10 after the 2009 season.

Arizona middle linebacker Scooby Wright owns more hardware than anyone else in this contest after winning the Bednarik and Nagurski awards as the nation’s top defensive player and the Lombardi Award (top defensive lineman or linebacker) as well as being named a first-team All-American. The sophomore amassed 153 tackles and has 14 sacks among his eye-popping 28 tackles for losses. “He has a chip on his shoulder, he loves the game and is a good teammate,” Rodriguez said of Wright in a statement. “One of the reasons his numbers are so high is because of his effort.”

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Arizona opened as 4-point favorites and have been bet down to -3. The total has moved down two points from its opening number of 69.5 to sit at 67.5.

INJURY REPORT: Boise State - TE Connor Peters (questionable Wednesday, leg). Arizona - LB DeAndre Miller (questionable Wednesday, shoulder), RB Adonis Smith (questionable Wednesday, concussion), DL Parker Zellers (questionable Wednesday, ankle), S Trevor Ermisch (questionable Wednesday, arm), OL Steven Gurola (questionable Wednesday, suspension).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (11-2, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 O/U): The Broncos have a big-time running back in Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 1,689 yards and 25 touchdowns – topping 100 yards nine times – and also has four receiving TDs. Quarterback Grant Hedrick has an impressive 70.9 completion percentage to go with 3,387 yards and 22 touchdowns but also is mistake-prone with 13 interceptions. Strong safety Darian Thompson (seven) and cornerback Donte Deayon (five) have combined for 12 of Boise State’s 20 interceptions with middle linebacker Tanner Vallejo (team-best 86 tackles) and outside linebacker Kamalei Correa (team-leading 10 sacks) also enjoying strong campaigns.

ABOUT ARIZONA (10-3, 5-8 ATS, 4-9 O/U): Quarterback Anu Solomon proved to be ready for duty as a freshman and he has excelled with 3,458 yards and 27 touchdowns against only seven interceptions. Nick Wilson was the main ground force with 1,289 yards and 15 touchdowns and Cayleb Jones is the top receiving target and caught 65 passes for 902 yards and nine touchdowns. Wright gets help on defense from safety Jared Tevis (119 tackles, four sacks), free safety Jourdon Grandon (team-high three interceptions) and safety William Parks (13 tackles for losses).

TRENDS:

* Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus the Pac-12.
* Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Over is 7-1 in Boise State's last eight games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Arizona's last six games overall.

CONSENSUS: The majority of bettors are backing the Broncos at -3, with 68 percent of the wagers placed on Boise State.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 31

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Orange Bowl betting preview: Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7, 61.5)

Game to be played at Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

1. In a season full of firsts, No. 8 Mississippi State would like nothing more than to add another by defeating No. 9 Georgia Tech for the first time in five meetings at the Capital One Orange Bowl. The Bulldogs lost two of their last three games to put a bit of a damper on their most successful season in school history, which included two other firsts – a 9-0 start and No. 1 ranking in the polls. The Yellow Jackets nearly knocked off three straight ranked opponents to end the regular season, losing only to No. 2 Florida State in the ACC championship game.

2. Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott became only the second Bulldog to earn Heisman Trophy votes – finishing eighth – and broke 10 individual school records in 2014, including total offense (3,935 yards), touchdowns responsible for (37) and rushing yards by a quarterback (939). The Louisiana native joined 2012 Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel as the only players in FBS over the last seven years to average at least 240 passing yards and 75 rushing yards in a season. Prescott was also the only player in the nation to rank in the top 20 in passing (24) and rushing touchdowns (13).

3. Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson has typically employed at least one size-speed mismatch at receiver since his arrival in 2008 (such as Demaryius Thomas and Stephen Hill) to balance out his team’s high-powered option offense. Leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (6-3, 225 pounds) was the latest in that line of pass-catchers before he tore his ACL against Georgia on Nov. 29. With Smelter sidelined, it will be up to 6-5, 232-pound senior Darren Waller to produce like he did in the ACC championship (five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown).

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as GT +7. The line briefly dropped to +6.5 before reverting back to GT +7. The total has jumped a full point from 60.5 at opening to 61.5.

INJURY REPORT: MSST - DB Cedric Jiles (Ques-Hamstring), DB Justin Cox (Ques-Suspension) GT - WR DeAndre Smelter (Out-Knee), RB Tony Zenon (Out-Knee), LB Jabari Hunt-Days (Ques-Eligibility)

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Prescott was far from a one-man show on offense, getting a lot of help from leading receiver De'Runnya Wilson, who averaged 88.6 yards and scored four times through the air in the Bulldogs’ five games against ranked opponents. Although Mississippi State is ranked 80th in total defense, it has stepped up when it has mattered the most, finishing the regular season first in FBS in red-zone, 10th in scoring and 13th in third-down defense. One of the key members of the unit is second-team All-American linebacker Benardrick McKinney, who tallied 61 tackles and three sacks.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (10-3 SU, 9-47 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Yellow Jackets’ third-ranked rushing attack piled up 41 touchdowns, helping Georgia Tech break its school record for touchdowns in a season with 65. Sophomore quarterback Justin Thomas blossomed in his first year as a starter, tying Joe Hamilton for the fifth-most touchdown passes in a season in school history (17) and needs 35 rushing yards to become the second Georgia Tech quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. Like Thomas, running backs Zach Laskey (788) and Synjyn Days (753) have amassed more than 700 yards on the ground, headlining a group of 12 Yellow Jackets that have totaled more than 100.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
*Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 neutral site games.
*Over is 6-1 in Yellow Jackets last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

CONSENSUS: 51.23 percent of users are behind Mississippi State -7, with 50.2 percent on the over.


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