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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 16
Vikings (6-8) @ Dolphins (7-7)—Six of last eight Minnesota games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT; Vikings are 1-5 on road without Peterson, with only win in OT at Tampa- they’re 4-3 as road dogs this season. Miami was outscored 48-3 in second half of last two games, playoff chances are remote; after fading badly in last two weeks LY (lost 19-0/20-7 with chance to make playoffs) pressure on Miami coaches to deliver winning record with cloud of Jim Harbaugh hanging over their heads. Dolphins are 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with all three wins by 13+ points. Vikings allowed only four TDs, two FG on foes’ last 11 red zone drives. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-11 vs spread, 5-8 on road. AFC East home favorites are 4-7. Six of last nine Viking games, seven of last nine Miami games stayed under total.
Packers (10-4) @ Buccaneers (2-12)— Pack is scoring 21.1 ppg on road, 41.1 at Lambeau. Tampa Bay hired Aaron Rodgers’ coach from Cal to be OC this year, but he had heart problem and never worked; now he’s off to be a head coach in CFL; Bucs’ offense suffered this year without a real OC. Packers are 9-0 on grass, 1-4 on carpet; they’re 1-2-1 as road favorite this year, 3-4 SU on road with two of three road wins by a FG- they allowed 20+ points in last five games. Bucs lost nine of last ten games, are 0-6 SU at home, 1-2 as home dogs, losing home games by 6-2-31-6-1-10 points. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-6 vs spread, 1-1 on road; NFC South underdogs are 10-11, 3-2 at home. Seven of last eight Buc games, three of last four Packer games stayed under total. Green Bay is 17-9 vs spread in game following last 26 losses.
Lions (10-4) @ Bears (5-9)—Clausen (1-9 as NFL starter) gets nod over Cutler for the dysfunctional Bears. Detroit won three in row, six of last eight games, but they’re 3-3 on road, 0-2 on grass, scoring 7-6 points in losses at Carolina/Arizona. Lions haven’t been negative in turnovers since Week 5; they’re +7 in last six games, with only four turnovers. Detroit is 6-10-1 in last 18 games as road favorites. Chicago just lost consecutive primetime home games; they’ve allowed 35.3 ppg in last three games, look like team that’s given up- they face divisional rival here that they’ve lost 10 of last 13 meetings with, but Lions lost five of last six visits here, so trap game for them with divisional showdown with Packers up next. Detroit (-7) spanked Bears 34-17 Thanksgiving Day, holding Chicago to 13 yards rushing (8 attempts). 11 of last 13 Lion games, four of last five Chicago home games stayed under total.
Falcons (5-9) @ Saints (6-8)— Saints are 2-5 as home favorites this year after being 18-3-1 in that role from 2011-13; NO lost last four home games, and they were favored by average of six points. Atlanta is 4-0 in divisional games, 1-9 vs everyone else; they’ve lost three of last four games overall, are 2-4 in true road games, winning at Tampa Bay, Carolina- four of their five road losses are by 10+ points. Falcons (+3) beat Saints 37-34 in season opener, averaging 10.1 ypa, so if they win here, Atlanta holds tie-breakers over NO in divisional race. Road team won last seven Saint games, after losing first seven. Atlanta is 4-0 when allowing less than 20 points, 1-9 when allowing more. Short week for NO as they face arch-rival with division lead on line. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total.
Patriots (11-3) @ Jets (2-12)—NE won 10 of last 11 games, covered six of last seven; they’ve won six of last seven games with Jets, but are 2-3 in last five visits here, with one win by more than a FG. Jets are 5-9-1 vs spread in game following their last 15 wins; they’ve scored 16 or less points in three of last four games overall, are 2-2 as home underdogs this year, losing home tilts by 8-7-14-20-3 points, with wins over Raiders/Steelers. Since 2003, Patriots are 17-9-2 as a divisional road favorite, 1-1 this year (compared to 15-16-1 as home favorites); Pats (-9.5) struggled to 27-25 win over Jets in Week 7, with Gang Green running ball for 218 yards and outgaining NE by 100 yards in game with no turnovers. Five of last six Jet games, three of last four Patriot games stayed under the total.
Chiefs (8-6) @ Steelers (9-5)—Pitt wins AFC North by closing with pair of home wins; underdogs covered five of its six home games this year, with Steelers 1-3 as home faves, winning at Heinz by 3-7-17-20 points, with odd losses to Bucs/Saints. Chiefs snapped 3-game skid by thrashing Oakland last week; they’re 4-3 on road this year, with last five road games all decided by 5 or less points- they’re 5-2 as underdogs. Steelers won three of last four games with Chiefs, all decided by 4 or less points; KC lost its last four visits here, losing by 6-6-38-3 points- their last win in Steel City was in 1986. Pittsburgh gained 7+ ypa in six of its last seven games. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 8-13, 5-7 at home. Six of last eight Pittsburgh games went over total.
Browns (7-7) @ Panthers (5-8-1)—If Falcons/Panthers win this week, they play in Georgia Dome next week for division title; Carolina is likely to still have Anderson (2-0 as starter this year) at QB with Newton’s back mending. Panthers won first two games, last two games but went 1-8-1 in between; they’ve run ball for 190 ypg the last three weeks, which takes pressure off defense. Cleveland lost last three games, allowing 27 ppg; Manziel was terrible in his starting debut last week, but defense allowed 244 rushing yards and JFF doesn’t play defense. AFC North teams are 12-2-1 vs NFC South this year and Steelers lost both games. Panthers won three of four series games, winning 20-12 in only meeting played here. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 8-3. Nine of last ten Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Ravens (9-5) @ Texans (7-7)—Former Houston coach Kubiak returns to Reliant as the OC of a team headed to playoffs. Texans are 3-3 at home and not totally out of it yet, but they’re down to #4 QB Keenum; he was on Rams' practice squad six days ago. Texans are 2-4 as underdogs this year, 3-3 SU at home, losing three of last four at Reliant. Baltimore won four of last five games, outscoring last two opponents 31-3 in second half; Ravens are 4-3 SU on road, 2-2 as road favorites, winning by 2-31-7-15 points. Ravens won seven of eight series games, winning 30-9 in Baltimore LY- they had punt return TD and defensive score in game, but lost here 43-13 in ’12, their only loss in four visits. AFC North non-divisional road favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread; AFC south underdogs are 9-11, 3-5 at home. Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.
Giants (5-9) @ Rams (6-8)—St Louis hasn’t allowed a TD in any of last three games (36 drives) but limited nature of its offense with QB Hill makes them dicey proposition when laying more than FG. Rams won three of last four home games, beating Seattle, Denver; they’re 2-2 as favorites, 1-2 at home (5-5 as HF under Fisher). Giants scored 60 points in winning last two games after losing previous seven, as explosive WR Beckham has revitalized offense; Jersey had double digit halftime leads in three of last four games. They were lucky last week when Griffin fumbled just before crossing goal line in air, then recovered it OB in end zone, or they would’ve been down 17-7 at half. Giants won last five series games, last four by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2006. Big Blue hasn’t been to St Louis since ’06; they won 26-21/41-13 in last two visits to Arch.
Bills (8-6) @ Raiders (2-12)—Huge trap game for Buffalo after upsetting Packers at home last week, despite not scoring offensive TD (had punt return TD); Bills lost last seven visits to Oakland, with last win here in 1966- they lost last three visits here, in series where home side won last four games, with three decided by 3 or less points. Buffalo won three of last four games, covering all four; they’re 3-2 as favorites this year, 3-3 SU on road, despite being underdog in all six games- they lost three of four games on grass. Raiders beat Chiefs/49ers in last two home games, are 4-3 vs spread in last seven games- five of their last six losses are by 10+ points. AFC West non-divisional dogs are 10-6 vs spread, 2-2 at home. Last six Buffalo games stayed under total; three of last four Oakland games went over.
Colts (10-4) @ Cowboys (10-4)—Visiting team covered last seven Dallas games. Cowboy RB Murray has broken hand, unlikely to play (well); Pokes won four of last five games, scoring 31+ points in all four wins- they had 10 TDs on last 21 drives in last two games. Dallas continues to be shaky home favorite; they’re 1-4 this year, 7-24 under Garrett, and lost last three home games SU, losing to Giants-Redskins-Arizona. Indy clinched AFC South, needs Patriot or Denver loss to have shot at first round bye Dallas is 9-6 in series, winning last two by 7-3 points; they lost five of last seven visits here, with last win in ’96. Colts allowed three defensive TDs in last two games, sneaking past Browns/Texans. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; three of last four Indy games stayed under. Interesting game, but human nature says Colts clinching division hurts their effort here.
Seahawks (10-4) @ Cardinals (11-3)—Ten weeks ago, Ryan Lindley was out of the NFL; how he is starting at QB for the NFC’s #1 seed as they try to hang onto their NFC West lead. Arizona is 7-0 at home this year, allowing total of 34 points in last three home games- they lost 19-3 (+7) in Seattle four weeks ago, in game where neither team gained 300 yards but Seahawks had 18-yard advantage in field position. Seattle won its last four games (3-0-1 vs spread), allowing 27 points (three TDs on 38 drives); they’re 4-3 on road, but won last two away games, at Philly/San Francisco- they won six of last nine series games but lost six of last eight visits to desert. Arizona is 4-2 as an underdog this year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four Seattle games, seven of last nine Arizona games stayed under the total.
Broncos (11-3) @ Bengals (9-4-1)—Denver clinched its division but is still playing for first round bye, #1 seed in AFC; Broncos won last four games, winning at KC/SD, while allowing only three TDs on 22 drives in those two games. Broncos won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they’ve won five of last seven visits here, but they’re 1-3 on artificial turf this season, with only win at the Jets- they’re 4-8 vs spread on carpet in Manning era. Cincy won four of its last five games; they’re still fighting for AFC North title, but they lost last two home games, to Browns/Steelers. Bengals are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine non-divisional home games; they’re 10-4-1 in last fifteen games as a home underdog. Four of last five Denver games, five of last six Bengal games stayed under the total.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 16
Vikings (6-8) @ Dolphins (7-7)—Six of last eight Minnesota games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT; Vikings are 1-5 on road without Peterson, with only win in OT at Tampa- they’re 4-3 as road dogs this season. Miami was outscored 48-3 in second half of last two games, playoff chances are remote; after fading badly in last two weeks LY (lost 19-0/20-7 with chance to make playoffs) pressure on Miami coaches to deliver winning record with cloud of Jim Harbaugh hanging over their heads. Dolphins are 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with all three wins by 13+ points. Vikings allowed only four TDs, two FG on foes’ last 11 red zone drives. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-11 vs spread, 5-8 on road. AFC East home favorites are 4-7. Six of last nine Viking games, seven of last nine Miami games stayed under total.
Packers (10-4) @ Buccaneers (2-12)— Pack is scoring 21.1 ppg on road, 41.1 at Lambeau. Tampa Bay hired Aaron Rodgers’ coach from Cal to be OC this year, but he had heart problem and never worked; now he’s off to be a head coach in CFL; Bucs’ offense suffered this year without a real OC. Packers are 9-0 on grass, 1-4 on carpet; they’re 1-2-1 as road favorite this year, 3-4 SU on road with two of three road wins by a FG- they allowed 20+ points in last five games. Bucs lost nine of last ten games, are 0-6 SU at home, 1-2 as home dogs, losing home games by 6-2-31-6-1-10 points. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-6 vs spread, 1-1 on road; NFC South underdogs are 10-11, 3-2 at home. Seven of last eight Buc games, three of last four Packer games stayed under total. Green Bay is 17-9 vs spread in game following last 26 losses.
Lions (10-4) @ Bears (5-9)—Clausen (1-9 as NFL starter) gets nod over Cutler for the dysfunctional Bears. Detroit won three in row, six of last eight games, but they’re 3-3 on road, 0-2 on grass, scoring 7-6 points in losses at Carolina/Arizona. Lions haven’t been negative in turnovers since Week 5; they’re +7 in last six games, with only four turnovers. Detroit is 6-10-1 in last 18 games as road favorites. Chicago just lost consecutive primetime home games; they’ve allowed 35.3 ppg in last three games, look like team that’s given up- they face divisional rival here that they’ve lost 10 of last 13 meetings with, but Lions lost five of last six visits here, so trap game for them with divisional showdown with Packers up next. Detroit (-7) spanked Bears 34-17 Thanksgiving Day, holding Chicago to 13 yards rushing (8 attempts). 11 of last 13 Lion games, four of last five Chicago home games stayed under total.
Falcons (5-9) @ Saints (6-8)— Saints are 2-5 as home favorites this year after being 18-3-1 in that role from 2011-13; NO lost last four home games, and they were favored by average of six points. Atlanta is 4-0 in divisional games, 1-9 vs everyone else; they’ve lost three of last four games overall, are 2-4 in true road games, winning at Tampa Bay, Carolina- four of their five road losses are by 10+ points. Falcons (+3) beat Saints 37-34 in season opener, averaging 10.1 ypa, so if they win here, Atlanta holds tie-breakers over NO in divisional race. Road team won last seven Saint games, after losing first seven. Atlanta is 4-0 when allowing less than 20 points, 1-9 when allowing more. Short week for NO as they face arch-rival with division lead on line. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total.
Patriots (11-3) @ Jets (2-12)—NE won 10 of last 11 games, covered six of last seven; they’ve won six of last seven games with Jets, but are 2-3 in last five visits here, with one win by more than a FG. Jets are 5-9-1 vs spread in game following their last 15 wins; they’ve scored 16 or less points in three of last four games overall, are 2-2 as home underdogs this year, losing home tilts by 8-7-14-20-3 points, with wins over Raiders/Steelers. Since 2003, Patriots are 17-9-2 as a divisional road favorite, 1-1 this year (compared to 15-16-1 as home favorites); Pats (-9.5) struggled to 27-25 win over Jets in Week 7, with Gang Green running ball for 218 yards and outgaining NE by 100 yards in game with no turnovers. Five of last six Jet games, three of last four Patriot games stayed under the total.
Chiefs (8-6) @ Steelers (9-5)—Pitt wins AFC North by closing with pair of home wins; underdogs covered five of its six home games this year, with Steelers 1-3 as home faves, winning at Heinz by 3-7-17-20 points, with odd losses to Bucs/Saints. Chiefs snapped 3-game skid by thrashing Oakland last week; they’re 4-3 on road this year, with last five road games all decided by 5 or less points- they’re 5-2 as underdogs. Steelers won three of last four games with Chiefs, all decided by 4 or less points; KC lost its last four visits here, losing by 6-6-38-3 points- their last win in Steel City was in 1986. Pittsburgh gained 7+ ypa in six of its last seven games. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 8-13, 5-7 at home. Six of last eight Pittsburgh games went over total.
Browns (7-7) @ Panthers (5-8-1)—If Falcons/Panthers win this week, they play in Georgia Dome next week for division title; Carolina is likely to still have Anderson (2-0 as starter this year) at QB with Newton’s back mending. Panthers won first two games, last two games but went 1-8-1 in between; they’ve run ball for 190 ypg the last three weeks, which takes pressure off defense. Cleveland lost last three games, allowing 27 ppg; Manziel was terrible in his starting debut last week, but defense allowed 244 rushing yards and JFF doesn’t play defense. AFC North teams are 12-2-1 vs NFC South this year and Steelers lost both games. Panthers won three of four series games, winning 20-12 in only meeting played here. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 8-3. Nine of last ten Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Ravens (9-5) @ Texans (7-7)—Former Houston coach Kubiak returns to Reliant as the OC of a team headed to playoffs. Texans are 3-3 at home and not totally out of it yet, but they’re down to #4 QB Keenum; he was on Rams' practice squad six days ago. Texans are 2-4 as underdogs this year, 3-3 SU at home, losing three of last four at Reliant. Baltimore won four of last five games, outscoring last two opponents 31-3 in second half; Ravens are 4-3 SU on road, 2-2 as road favorites, winning by 2-31-7-15 points. Ravens won seven of eight series games, winning 30-9 in Baltimore LY- they had punt return TD and defensive score in game, but lost here 43-13 in ’12, their only loss in four visits. AFC North non-divisional road favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread; AFC south underdogs are 9-11, 3-5 at home. Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.
Giants (5-9) @ Rams (6-8)—St Louis hasn’t allowed a TD in any of last three games (36 drives) but limited nature of its offense with QB Hill makes them dicey proposition when laying more than FG. Rams won three of last four home games, beating Seattle, Denver; they’re 2-2 as favorites, 1-2 at home (5-5 as HF under Fisher). Giants scored 60 points in winning last two games after losing previous seven, as explosive WR Beckham has revitalized offense; Jersey had double digit halftime leads in three of last four games. They were lucky last week when Griffin fumbled just before crossing goal line in air, then recovered it OB in end zone, or they would’ve been down 17-7 at half. Giants won last five series games, last four by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2006. Big Blue hasn’t been to St Louis since ’06; they won 26-21/41-13 in last two visits to Arch.
Bills (8-6) @ Raiders (2-12)—Huge trap game for Buffalo after upsetting Packers at home last week, despite not scoring offensive TD (had punt return TD); Bills lost last seven visits to Oakland, with last win here in 1966- they lost last three visits here, in series where home side won last four games, with three decided by 3 or less points. Buffalo won three of last four games, covering all four; they’re 3-2 as favorites this year, 3-3 SU on road, despite being underdog in all six games- they lost three of four games on grass. Raiders beat Chiefs/49ers in last two home games, are 4-3 vs spread in last seven games- five of their last six losses are by 10+ points. AFC West non-divisional dogs are 10-6 vs spread, 2-2 at home. Last six Buffalo games stayed under total; three of last four Oakland games went over.
Colts (10-4) @ Cowboys (10-4)—Visiting team covered last seven Dallas games. Cowboy RB Murray has broken hand, unlikely to play (well); Pokes won four of last five games, scoring 31+ points in all four wins- they had 10 TDs on last 21 drives in last two games. Dallas continues to be shaky home favorite; they’re 1-4 this year, 7-24 under Garrett, and lost last three home games SU, losing to Giants-Redskins-Arizona. Indy clinched AFC South, needs Patriot or Denver loss to have shot at first round bye Dallas is 9-6 in series, winning last two by 7-3 points; they lost five of last seven visits here, with last win in ’96. Colts allowed three defensive TDs in last two games, sneaking past Browns/Texans. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; three of last four Indy games stayed under. Interesting game, but human nature says Colts clinching division hurts their effort here.
Seahawks (10-4) @ Cardinals (11-3)—Ten weeks ago, Ryan Lindley was out of the NFL; how he is starting at QB for the NFC’s #1 seed as they try to hang onto their NFC West lead. Arizona is 7-0 at home this year, allowing total of 34 points in last three home games- they lost 19-3 (+7) in Seattle four weeks ago, in game where neither team gained 300 yards but Seahawks had 18-yard advantage in field position. Seattle won its last four games (3-0-1 vs spread), allowing 27 points (three TDs on 38 drives); they’re 4-3 on road, but won last two away games, at Philly/San Francisco- they won six of last nine series games but lost six of last eight visits to desert. Arizona is 4-2 as an underdog this year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four Seattle games, seven of last nine Arizona games stayed under the total.
Broncos (11-3) @ Bengals (9-4-1)—Denver clinched its division but is still playing for first round bye, #1 seed in AFC; Broncos won last four games, winning at KC/SD, while allowing only three TDs on 22 drives in those two games. Broncos won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they’ve won five of last seven visits here, but they’re 1-3 on artificial turf this season, with only win at the Jets- they’re 4-8 vs spread on carpet in Manning era. Cincy won four of its last five games; they’re still fighting for AFC North title, but they lost last two home games, to Browns/Steelers. Bengals are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine non-divisional home games; they’re 10-4-1 in last fifteen games as a home underdog. Four of last five Denver games, five of last six Bengal games stayed under the total.
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