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These are pretty strong in my opinion and seem to be proven every year.
1. Earlier games in bowl season tend to go over the total and bowl games later in the season go tend to go under.
2. Look for teams that struggled at the end of the season because there will be value on them and probably be focused to make up for struggling.
3. Conference match-ups matter sometimes, like when a power conference plays a non-power conference team. Even with the motivation, it's really tough for these smaller schools to sustain 60 minutes. Maybe look to a 1st half play if you like the smaller school with a motivation edge.
4. Coaching change impacts on the game are hard to determine.
5. Teams playing close to home tend to play better...I don't have hard data on this but I think people would agree.
6. Look for a motivational edge that makes sense......Ga Tech crushed USC a few years ago in the Sun Bowl I think? USC didn't want to be there at all while Ga Tech brought a max and prepared effort. Only a few of these available each bowl season. I'm skeptical on if either TCU or Baylor will fall into this category even though being left out of the playoffs.
7. A double digit spread is a lot in bowl games.....look at UCF, Louisville, Utah, Boise, etc all winning outright over the last several years in BCS games as double digit underdogs.
8. Who the head coach is matters in bowl game predictions! There are certain coaches who always do better in bowl games and ones who rarely win. A quality coach with several weeks to prepare will typically use it to his advantage.
1. Earlier games in bowl season tend to go over the total and bowl games later in the season go tend to go under.
2. Look for teams that struggled at the end of the season because there will be value on them and probably be focused to make up for struggling.
3. Conference match-ups matter sometimes, like when a power conference plays a non-power conference team. Even with the motivation, it's really tough for these smaller schools to sustain 60 minutes. Maybe look to a 1st half play if you like the smaller school with a motivation edge.
4. Coaching change impacts on the game are hard to determine.
5. Teams playing close to home tend to play better...I don't have hard data on this but I think people would agree.
6. Look for a motivational edge that makes sense......Ga Tech crushed USC a few years ago in the Sun Bowl I think? USC didn't want to be there at all while Ga Tech brought a max and prepared effort. Only a few of these available each bowl season. I'm skeptical on if either TCU or Baylor will fall into this category even though being left out of the playoffs.
7. A double digit spread is a lot in bowl games.....look at UCF, Louisville, Utah, Boise, etc all winning outright over the last several years in BCS games as double digit underdogs.
8. Who the head coach is matters in bowl game predictions! There are certain coaches who always do better in bowl games and ones who rarely win. A quality coach with several weeks to prepare will typically use it to his advantage.
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