NFL week 14

[roccodean]

1* bears +4

[roccodean]

2* TB/Det 1st half under 21

2* rams

Took some at +3 and going to see if I can get 3.5 later

[Sirporkie]

Gl!

[jt4545]

Good Luck

[jcindaville]

Like the Bears too

Good luck Rock

[BigWeiner]

With you on the Rams. Like the Pats also

[roccodean]

3* 1st half under 20.5 KC/Ariz (possible 4* upgrade)


2* 1st half under 20 NYJ/Minn



2* 1st half under 20.5 SF/Oak

[roccodean]

TB/det 1st half under bumped to 3*

[roccodean]

analysis:

3* 1st half under 20.5 KC/Ariz (possible 4* upgrade)

KC has zero pass game (hasn't had a TD to a receiver yet this year) so will have to rely on their run game to score, but Zona is 3rd in def effic vs the run. Zona is 31st in run off effic and now will be without Ellington and Stanton has proven he can't put up big numbers. KC's def adjusted sack rate is 8th and will be getting after Stanton in this game.



3* 1st half under 21 TB/Det

TB's offense is pitiful (29th in rushing off and passing off eff) and now face the best def in the league that is 1st vs the run and 3rd vs the pass in effic. Detroits offense has been struggling (30th in rushing eff and 19th in passing effic). When you look at TB's def numbers for entire year they aren't impressive but since their bye and their learning their cover 2 better they are only allowing 17.5 PPG (would be 2nd in league to Det if did that all year).



2* Washington over Rams

Play at +3 or better

The rams have no business being a 3 point road dog here. They can't throw the ball (26th in passing effic) and their run game is average. Their def is average as well (11th,18th in effic). They are -0.4 YPP, while the Skins are +0.1 YPP. Washington has actually been playing solid ball the last few weeks and I think they get the straight up win here vs the dome team playing outside.



2* 1st half under 20 NYJ/Minn

The Jets offense is terrible, but they are 6th in rushing effic and will look to take advantage of Minn def that is 27th in rush eff...more running is good for unders. As we saw last week the Jets don't trust Smith and will pound the ball. The Vikins can't pass the ball (30th) and will try to run, but the Jets run D is very good at 9th in effic.



2* 1st half under 20.5 SF/Oak

Oaklands offense is the worst in the league at 32nd in rushing effic and 28th in passing effic. SF's offense has struggled and is only averaging 19.3 PPG (25th in league) vs teams that have allowed 23.5 PPG.

[roccodean]

1* Browns +3.5

[crswir]

Good luck Rocco!

[Sirporkie]

Gl!