Announcement

**Udog** · 12-03-2014, 09:49 AM

NCAAF opening line report: 'Bama causing teaser liability for books vs. Mizzou

We’re down to the final weekend of college football’s regular season, with huge ramifications, as the four teams that will compete in the first-ever playoff will be decided. There are ostensibly six teams really in the mix – all with one loss except for unbeaten Florida State.

But if a couple of those six slip up on championship weekend, well, it could get pretty crazy – particularly if Missouri can unseat top-ranked Alabama. While other Southeastern Conference heavy hitters fell down around them, the Tigers (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS down the stretch to reach Saturday’s SEC title game. Mizzou capped the regular season with a 21-14 victory over visiting Arkansas as a 2-point home underdog.

For the second year in a row, the Crimson Tide got all they could handle from archrival Auburn, but a huge second half saved ‘Bama’s season in a 55-44 shootout as a 9.5-point favorite. The Tide (11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) have won seven in a row SU since falling at Mississippi.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, isn’t sold on Missouri for the neutral-site game, at Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.

“Mizzou kind of back-doored its way into this game,” Lester said. “The public won’t think the Tigers stand a chance against ‘Bama, so we’ll probably be moving this spread early and often. And we will have a ton of teaser liability on the Tide.”

Florida State Seminoles (-3) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Defending national champion Florida State hasn’t lost in more than two years – a stretch of 28 games – but the Seminoles have hardly looked pretty this year, especially at the betting window, and their regular-season finale highlighted that fact. The ‘Noles (12-0 SU, 3-9 ATS) struggled to hold off a mediocre Florida squad 24-19 laying 7 points at home.

Georgia Tech (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) heads into the ACC championship game – at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. -- on a five-game SU and ATS surge, capped by a 30-24 overtime win as a hefty 10.5-point pup at Georgia.

“Paul Johnson is a coach that will take advantage if the Seminoles show up with another sloppy performance,” Lester said. “We keep waiting for Florida State to put a complete game together, but good teams find ways to win ugly. Still, we’re expecting a lot of sharp action on the underdog here.”

Oregon Ducks (-13.5) vs. Arizona Wildcats

Oregon’s chase for a championship looked to be derailed when it lost to Arizona 31-24 as a massive three-touchdown home chalk on Oct. 2. But now the Ducks (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) get a shot at revenge in the Pac-12 title game Friday night at Levi’s Stadium, the new home of the NFL’s 49ers. Oregon finished the regular season with a 47-19 road drubbing of Oregon State as a 21-point fave.

Arizona (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) bested Arizona State 42-35 giving 2 points at home, and got help when UCLA lost to Stanford, putting the Wildcats in the conference title tilt.

“The Ducks get a chance to avenge the Arizona upset from earlier this season, and secure a spot in the playoff,” said Lester, noting Oregon is a healthier unit this time around. “Even though it could be without its center here, the Oregon line is much healthier than it was in the first meeting. Marcus Mariota was not 100 percent then either. I don’t think the Wildcats can win, but they could keep it close.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-4)

Ohio State is now down to its third-string quarterback after J.T. Barrett – who rallied the team after it lost Braxton Miller in the preseason – broke his ankle Saturday against Michigan. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) still notched a 42-28 home victory, but fell short as 21.5-point favorites and will have to start sophomore Cardale Jones in the Big 10 title game at Indianapolis.

Wisconsin (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won seven in a row SU (4-3 ATS), ending the regular season with a 34-24 victory over Minnesota giving 17 points at home.

“Ohio State is forced to play with a third-stringer under center this postseason. We don’t know a lot about him, but he’s a big-bodied quarterback with some concerns over accuracy,” Lester said. “Wisconsin should try to make the Buckeyes one-dimensional. This is a resilient Badgers team, and because of the Buckeyes’ change at QB, I think Wisconsin gets it done.”

**Udog** · 12-03-2014, 09:51 AM

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: Boise State Broncos (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)

This week: -20 vs. Fresno State

Saturday’s Mountain West Championship is a rematch of an Oct. 17 game, also played on the blue turf of Boise State and won by the Broncos 37-27.

“The teams are both different from where we were,” Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin said in his press conference earlier this week. “[From] five or six weeks ago, we’re a different football team. Guys are just executing and playing at a better level.”

The Bulldogs are 5-0 since beating Fresno State and have scored at least 50 points in four of those five. They had previously scored more than 38 points only once. Jay Ajayi’s role has always been big, but it has consistently expanded as the season has progressed. The junior running back has rushed at least 26 times in six of the last seven games and he has seven straight 100-yard, multi-touchdown performances.

The favored team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings. Boise State is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 against the Bulldogs and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of those contests at home.

Team to beware: Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS)

This week: -12.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

Marshall made its first Conference-USA Championship appearance last year and got blown out 41-24 at Rice. The Thundering Herd have home-field advantage this time around, but there is still reason to be cautious.

Doc Holliday’s squad is coming off its first loss of the season, in which it gave up 738 yards of total offense to Western Kentucky and fell 67-66 in overtime. Marshall will have to bounce back mentally after seeing any chance of a New Year’s Day bowl go up in flames.

Louisiana Tech is in its first C-USA title game (this is just its second season in the conference), but head coach Skip Holtz has been there before. He is the first coach to lead two different teams to the C-USA Championship (won it in 2008 and 2009 with East Carolina).

The Bulldogs lead the FBS with 36 takeaways and 150 points off turnovers. Marshall coughed it up four times against Western Kentucky.

Total team: Bowling Green Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 O/U)

This week: over/under 59 vs. Northern Illinois

Friday will mark the second straight MAC Championship between Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. The Falcons scored 47 points in a 20-point victory to win the 2013 title, but their offense has been sputtering—at least by its lofty standards—of late. BGSU scored 31 points or more in three straight games from Sept. 27 through Oct. 11 but has not put up that many in any of its last five outings.

Quarterback Matt Johnson played in just one game before being lost for the season due to injury. James Knapke has a modest 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as Johnson’s replacement. Knapke has thrown only two touchdowns in his last five games and does not have a multi-score performance since Oct. 11.

The under is 6-1 in Bowling Green’s last seven overall. It is 5-0 in Northern Illinois’ last five overall.

**Udog** · 12-03-2014, 09:52 AM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 4

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UCF (8 - 3) at E CAROLINA (8 - 3) - 12/4/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a Thursday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, December 5

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N ILLINOIS (10 - 2) vs. BOWLING GREEN (7 - 5) - 12/5/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 1-0 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 1-0 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (10 - 2) vs. OREGON (11 - 1) - 12/5/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 72-107 ATS (-45.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
OREGON is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OREGON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 6

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SMU (0 - 11) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 9) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IOWA ST (2 - 9) at TCU (10 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TCU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
TCU is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
TCU is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-1 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEMPLE (5 - 6) at TULANE (3 - 8) - 12/6/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 82-112 ATS (-41.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (7 - 4) at CINCINNATI (8 - 3) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS ST (9 - 2) at BAYLOR (10 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 6) at OKLAHOMA (8 - 3) - 12/6/2014, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOUISIANA TECH (8 - 4) at MARSHALL (11 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSOURI (10 - 2) vs. ALABAMA (11 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
MISSOURI is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA ST (12 - 0) vs. GEORGIA TECH (10 - 2) - 12/6/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WISCONSIN (10 - 2) vs. OHIO ST (11 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 162-119 ATS (+31.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 162-119 ATS (+31.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 150-105 ATS (+34.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 124-94 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OHIO ST is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FRESNO ST (6 - 6) at BOISE ST (10 - 2) - 12/6/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 121-80 ATS (+33.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 121-80 ATS (+33.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 99-66 ATS (+26.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 86-60 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 77-44 ATS (+28.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-39 ATS (+26.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 79-51 ATS (+22.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 2-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-1 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-03-2014, 09:52 AM

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thurs, Dec. 4

UCF at E Carolina, 7:30 ET
UCF: 7-0 ATS off a road win
E Carolina: 6-17 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Fri, Dec. 5

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green, 7:00 ET
N Illinois: 8-7 UNDER after a 2 game road trip
Bowling Green: 17-6 UNDER after playing a conference game

Arizona at Oregon, 9:00 ET
Arizona: 8-20 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game
Oregon: 7-0 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

Sat, Dec. 6

SMU at Connecticut, 12:00 ET
SMU: 17-32 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
Connecticut: 13-2 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Iowa State at TCU, 12:00 ET
Iowa St: 13-27 ATS in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game
TCU: 33-16 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game

Temple at Tulane, 7:30 ET
Temple: 6-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Tulane: 1-6 ATS after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game

Houston at Cincinnati, 12:00 ET
Houston: 7-1 ATS as a road underdog
Cincinnati: 6-1 UNDER against conference opponents

Kansas State at Baylor, 3:30 ET
Kansas St: 19-5 ATS after playing a conference game
Baylor: 27-12 OVER after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma State: 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 17.5 to 21 points
Oklahoma: 13-3 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Louisiana Tech at Marshall, 12:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 7-21 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
Marshall: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Missouri at Alabama, 4:00 ET
Missouri: 3-10 ATS in December games
Alabama: 27-13 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins

Florida State at Georgia Tech, 8:00 ET
Florida St: 14-5 UNDER as a neutral field favorite
Georgia Tech: 12-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Wisconsin at Ohio State, 8:15 ET
Wisconsin: 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Ohio State: 0-6 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival

Fresno State at Boise State, 10:10 ET
Fresno St: 16-10 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Boise St: 59-32 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

**Udog** · 12-03-2014, 10:29 AM

NCAAF

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 4

7:30 PM
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. EAST CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 6 games on the road
Central Florida is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
East Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Central Florida
East Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Friday, December 5

7:00 PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. BOWLING GREEN
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games when playing Bowling Green
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Bowling Green's last 6 games when playing Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 7 games

9:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. OREGON
Arizona is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Oregon
Arizona is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Saturday, December 6

12:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. CONNECTICUT
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Southern Methodist's last 10 games
Connecticut is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Connecticut is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home

12:00 PM
LOUISIANA TECH vs. MARSHALL
Louisiana Tech is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Louisiana Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Marshall is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
Marshall is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

12:00 PM
IOWA STATE vs. TCU
Iowa State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Iowa State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing TCU
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

12:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 16 games
Cincinnati is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston

TBA
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma State is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma State is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma State

4:00 PM
MISSOURI vs. ALABAMA
Missouri is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Missouri's last 10 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
TEMPLE vs. TULANE
Temple is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Temple's last 6 games
Tulane is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tulane is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:45 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. BAYLOR
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State's last 7 games on the road
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Baylor is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State

8:00 PM
FLORIDA STATE vs. GEORGIA TECH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 6 games when playing Georgia Tech
Florida State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Georgia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia Tech's last 9 games
Georgia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:17 PM
WISCONSIN vs. OHIO STATE
Wisconsin is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Wisconsin
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Ohio State's last 11 games

10:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. BOISE STATE
Fresno State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boise State
Fresno State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boise State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boise State's last 6 games at home
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Fresno State

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**Udog** · 12-04-2014, 08:57 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15

Central Florida at East Carolina
The Knights head to East Carolina on Thursday with the American Athletic Conference championship on the line and face a Pirates team that is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games. East Carolina is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-7). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

Game 103-104: Central Florida at East Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 86.633; East Carolina 96.578
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 10; 60
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-7); Over

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5

Game 105-106: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 78.427; Northern Illinois 79.406
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 7; 59
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+7); Under

Game 107-108: Arizona vs. Oregon (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 102.376; Oregon 118.705
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 16 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: Oregon by 14; 73 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-14); Over

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6

Game 109-110: SMU at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 60.129; Connecticut 76.520
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 16 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 11 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-11 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: Iowa State at TCU (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 76.512; TCU 119.302
Dunkel Line: TCU by 43; 72
Vegas Line: TCU by 33 1/2; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-33 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Temple at Tulane (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 80.904; Tulane 79.965
Dunkel Line: Temple by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Temple by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+4); Under

Game 115-116: Houston at Cincinnati (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 87.132; Cincinnati 90.345
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 54
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 57
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Under

Game 117-118: Kansas State at Baylor (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 107.254; Baylor 110.079
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 3; 64
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 119-120: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 88.214; Oklahoma 105.038
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 17; 57
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 20; 60
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+20); Under

Game 121-122: Louisiana Tech at Marshall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 92.314; Marshall 96.353
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 4; 64
Vegas Line: Marshall by 12 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+12 1/2); Under

Game 123-124: Alabama vs. Missouri (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 114.857; Missouri 97.914
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 17; 53
Vegas Line: Alabama by 14 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-14 1/2); Over

Game 125-126: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 107.620; Georgia Tech 100.584
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 7; 64
Vegas Line: Florida State by 3 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: Wisconsin vs. Ohio State (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 114.994; Ohio State 104.921
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 10; 57
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 4; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-4); Over

Game 129-130: Fresno State at Boise State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 86.049; Boise State 103.560
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 17 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Boise Sate by 21; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+21); Under

**Udog** · 12-04-2014, 09:18 AM

NCAAF

Thursday, December 4

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Game of the Day: Central Florida at East Carolina
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UCF Knights at ECU Pirates (-7, 56)

UCF bounced back nicely from an unexpected road loss to Connecticut by handily defeating three other teams in the bottom half of the American Athletic Conference. The Knights figure to be challenged a bit more Thursday at East Carolina when they look to claim their share of the conference title. UCF fell to the Huskies 37-29 on Nov. 1 to give UConn its only AAC victory, but has outscored Tulsa, SMU and South Florida by a combined 100-14 in three games since.

The Knights, who boast the league’s best scoring, passing and total defense, are tied with Cincinnati for second in the AAC - one-half game behind Memphis. A two-game losing streak in early November cost the Pirates a shot at the AAC title, but East Carolina figures to pose a formidable threat to UCF as the Pirates feature the conference’s highest-scoring and most prolific offense. East Carolina enters its regular-season finale with back-to-back convincing victories over Tulane and Tulsa, each of whom has two conference wins.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Pirates as 5 or 5.5-point home faves, but that has moved to -7. The total is currently 56 after opening 54.5 or 55.5

INJURY REPORT: Knights - RB William Stanback (Probable, undisclosed). Pirates - WR Trevon Brown (Out, knee).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT UCF (8-3, 6-1 AAC): Although the Knights were held to less than 400 total yards for the first time in five games, Breshad Perriman continued his assault on the Knights’ all-time records. The junior receiver finished with team highs of six receptions, 55 yards and a touchdown, becoming the first UCF player since 2000 to catch a scoring pass in six straight contests. The Knights’ 16-0 shutout of USF last week marked the first time UCF blanked a conference team on the road.

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (8-3, 5-2): The nation’s third-ranked passing attack continued to get solid production from their ground-game counterparts in Friday’s 49-32 victory at Tulsa with 172 rushing yards, including 91 on six carries from backup running back Chris Hairston. The strong rushing effort gave the Pirates 1,971 rushing yards for the season with two games remaining while leaving them 29 yards shy of their first 2,000-yard season as a team since 2009. Conversely, East Carolina surrendered a season-high 189 yards on the ground to the Golden Hurricane – doubling its season average entering the contest.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 7-3 in Knights last 10 conference games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of bettors are on the Pirates.

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**Udog** · 12-06-2014, 07:18 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Saturday games
Conference championship games
Louisiana Tech won six of last seven games but also lost to a I-AA team in September; they beat Rice 76-31 last week, are on road for third time in last five weeks. Bulldogs are 4-0 as underdogs this year, winning two of four games SU. Marshall scored 66 points last week....and lost its first game of year; they're 3-2 as home favorites this year, with four wins by 19+ points. Herd lost this game LY 41-24 (-6.5) to Rice. These teams have met once, in 1942.

Alabama played Iron Bowl last week, hard to match that intensity week later vs Mizzou team they beat 42-10 two years ago, outgaining Tigers 533-129. Crimson Tide is 1-4 vs spread away from home, with wins by 10-1-14-7, with loss at Ole Miss. Missouri won last four games, despite being underdog in last three; Tigers are 5-1 as underdogs (8-1 overall in last nine games as a dog), 5-0 SU on road, but they also lost at home to Indiana. Mizzou lost 59-42 to Auburn LY in this game.

Winston is 26-0 as Florida State's QB; Seminoles won 13 of last 15 with Georgia Tech, but Jackets covered last four, with FSU winning 21-15 in last meeting (-14) in this game two years ago. Seminoles are 3-9 against spread this year, winning last three games by 5 or less points; they're 2-1 as single digit favorite this year. Tech won/covered its last five games, are 5-0 as an underdog this year; they've scored 47.3 ppg in last three games on road. FSU allowed 200+ rushing yards twice: BC and The Citadel.

Ohio State is down to #3 QB Jones after Barrett broke his ankle in win over Michigan last week; Buckeyes won six of last seven games against Wisconsin, with underdogs covering three of last four. Ohio State won last ten games since losing at home to Va Tech; they gave up 24+ points in last four games. Badgers won last seven games after 3-2 start- they are 2-1 in games with single digit spread, OSU is 2-0. Meyer covered his last 12 games he wasn't favored in. Wisconsin was down 17-3 in first half vs Minnesota last week, rallied to beat Gophers 34-24.

Boise State ran ball for 264 yards in 37-27 (-17) win over Fresno State in October; Broncos won 12 of last 14 series games, but lost 41-40 LY to Bulldogs, who beat Utah State in this game LY. Underdogs covered last two series games after favorites covered previous 12 in series. Fresno is only 6-6, 1-3 vs spread when a double digit underdog- they won three in row, scoring 38-40-28 points last three games. Boise is 4-2 as favorite at home, winning by 10-9 points in games they didn't cover.

Rest of schedule
-- Home side won last four UCF-East Carolina games, covering five of last six; Pirates covered once in last seven games, are 2-2 as home faves this season. UCF won last three games by a combined 100-14.
-- UConn is 2-9 this season, losing last three games by combined total of 117-31; they're 0-1 as a favorite. SMU hired a new coach this week; they are 0-11, 3-8 vs spread, losing last two by combined 88-16.
-- TCU scored 47.7 ppg in winning last six games since losing to Baylor 61-58; they're 4-1 when laying double digits this year. Cyclones allowed 30+ points in every game but one; they're 3-3-1 as double digit dogs.
-- Temple lost last three games, needs win to be bowl eligible; they lost last three games, scoring total of 32 points, but have won couple of road games. Tulane lost last two games, outscored 72-13.

-- Underdogs covered five of last seven Houston- Cincinnati games, with Bearcats winning last four, by 7-33-1-17 points. Cougars won five of last six games, are 2-0 as dogs. Bearcats won/covered last six games.
-- Underdogs covered six of last seven Kansas State-Baylor games, with Bears winning last three here, by 28-5-14 points. Bears won last four games, scoring 51.3 ppg; K-State covered three of four as an underdog.
-- Oklahoma State lost its last five visits to Norman, with four losses by 27+ points; Cowboys lost last five games overall, covered one of last six. Sooners lost two of last three at home, covered two of last seven overall.

**Udog** · 12-06-2014, 07:21 AM

NCAAF

Saturday, December 6

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Game of the Day: Big Ten Championship Game
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (+4.5, 52.5)

Game will be played on a neutral site at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

After an emotional week that included the death of one player, a season-ending injury to the starting quarterback and a win over its rival, Ohio State must focus on the task at hand. The sixth-ranked Buckeyes try to do just that when they meet No. 11 Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game Saturday in Indianapolis. Cardale Jones starts under center after J.T. Barrett broke an ankle in Ohio State's 42-28 defeat of Michigan, hoping to help his team impress a playoff committee that ranks the Buckeyes fifth.

Wisconsin, which won the Big Ten title game in 2011 and 2012, has been riding Melvin Gordon's incredible run through the course of a seven-game winning streak and is primed to give its star running back plenty of work, despite an ankle issue that popped up in last week's 34-24 triumph over Minnesota. "It's got me on high alert and the only thing I can do is listen to Melvin Gordon, because I know Melvin is going to tell me what his mindset is — and he will be 100 percent ready to roll on Saturday," head coach Gary Andersen told reporters this week. Gordon, who was limited to 74 yards in last season's encounter with Ohio State, first turned heads in the 2012 conference title game, producing 216 yards in a rout of Nebraska.

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening at Ohio State +4, the line briefly jumped to +4.5 Monday before coming back to the opening point. The total has yet to shift from the opening 52.5.

INJURY REPORT: Wisconsin - OL Ray Ball (Ques-Leg), OL Dan Voltz (Ques-Ankle), OL Trent Denlinger (Ques-Undisclosed) Ohio State - QB J.T. Barrett (Out-Ankle)

ABOUT WISCONSIN (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U): Gordon and the Big Ten's top defense gain the bulk of the headlines, but quarterback Joel Stave has quietly picked up his game after sitting out four games to start the season due to throwing issues. Stave, who threw for 2,494 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2013, completed just 48 percent of his passes and had three TDs versus three interceptions through his first four games but has a 66.7 percent completion rate with four TDs and one pick over the last four. "He is seeing the field very, very well," Andersen said after Stave threw for 215 yards and a pair of scores - including the clincher with 4:41 left - against the Golden Gophers.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS, 10-2 O/U): Head coach Urban Meyer's lone loss in 25 games as a Big Ten coach came in last season's title game against Michigan State, and his resolve during a tough week has his team pointed in the right direction. "We believe in a very, extremely close team that leans on each other in tough times and someone usually steps up and makes a tremendous play or says something," said Meyer, whose team learned on Sunday that defensive lineman Kosta Karageorge had been found dead of a gunshot wound to the head. Meanwhile, Jones - a sophomore who stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 250 pounds - gives the Buckeyes plenty of athleticism at quarterback, having averaged 7.8 yards per carry on 43 rushes in his career.

TRENDS:

*Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
*Over is 12-1 in Buckeyes last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 56.91 percent of users are backing Wisconsin -4 with 58.1 percent on the over.

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**Udog** · 12-06-2014, 07:24 AM

NCAAF

Saturday, December 6

Petty practices, but still not cleared to play

Bryce Petty continues to practice for the Baylor Bears this week, but has yet to be medically cleared to play Saturday. The senior signal-caller suffered a concussion in Baylor's victory last week.

Petty has thrown for 2893 yards with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.

Baylor is currently listed as -7.5 for their clash against Kansas State.

FSU defense keeping ACC title games under

Florida State has gone to the past two ACC championship games and in both instances the game went under. The under trend is thanks to the Seminoles defense which has held opponents to a combined 22 points in those two games.

FSU and Georgia Tech is currently set at 61.

Big Ten championships going over historically

The Big Ten championship has gone over in all three contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Those three games have totaled an average of 80 points per game, with the lowest scoring team putting up 24 points.

The Buckeyes this season have gone 10-2 over/under this season while averaging 44 ppg. The other sideline will be Wisconsin who went 6-5-1 O/U this season, while holding opponents to a mere 16.8 ppg.

The current total for the Big Ten title game is 52.5.

Stoops says QB Knight could be cleared for bowl game

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said Wednesday that sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight is running and throwing passes in practice, although he's still not in pads. "We're hopeful -- I don't want anyone's hopes up, but -- it's looking positive that he may be cleared to play for the bowl game," Stoops said.

After hot start, Marshall has cooled off ATS

Marshall started off the season on a tear for their spread backers, but that's come to an abrupt halt.

The Thundering Herd covered in seven out of their first eight contests but have dropped two straight ATS ahead of their Conference USA Championship game against Louisiana Tech Saturday.

The Bulldogs are currently 9.5-point road dogs. The total is sitting at 68.5.

Covers coming easily for Bearcats backers

Covering the spread has not been an issue for the Cincinnati Bearcats.

The 'Cats are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in their last six matchups. Houston welcomes Cincy to town in the AAC Championship Game Saturday.

The Cougars are presently 7-point road dogs with a total of 56.5.

**Udog** · 12-06-2014, 07:28 AM

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 15

Iowa State Cyclones at (4) TCU Horned Frogs (-33.5)

*Sam Richardson has been carrying the Cyclones offense this season. Aside from ranking in the Top 10 in Cyclones history for most single-season passing stats, the junior QB is also only the fourth signal caller in team history to have more than 100 yards rushing in a season.

*TCU’s 21 points per game improvement this season is on pace to break the Big 12 record of 19.1 set by Oklahoma in 1999 (35.8; 16.7, 1998) and would be the largest improvement by any team since Northwestern went up 24.0 points between 1999-00.

Trends:

*Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
*Horned Frogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
*Over is 8-2 in Horned Frogs last 10 conference games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at (16) Oklahoma Sooners (-20)

*Non-offensive touchdowns have been a regular part of the Oklahoma State attack in recent years, as the Cowboys have 29 non-offensive scores since the start of the 2010 season - a mark that ranks second in the nation during that span.

*Since QB Trevor Knight's injury, the Sooners' rushing attack has become the centerpiece of the team. In the past two games without Knight, Oklahoma has rushed for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Trends:

*Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
*Over is 11-3-1 in Sooners last 15 games overall.
*Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma.

(1) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (13) Missouri Tigers (+14.5)

*Since the start of the 2009 season, no defense has allowed fewer touchdowns than the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s defense has surrendered just 113 touchdowns over the last 78 games. That is 36 fewer than the second most in the nation (LSU with 149).

*A key to Missouri's success in 2014 has been its continued success away from home, as the Tigers went a perfect 5-0 on the road this year. Mizzou has now won 11 straight road games, including last season's bowl game, and is also a perfect 11-0 ATS in those contests.

Trends:

*Tigers are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 10-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 12 neutral site games.
*Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 games on fieldturf.

(9) Kansas State Wildcats at (5) Baylor Bears

*There's little doubt that if Kansas State is in the lead come halftime, it will be difficult for Baylor to beat them. The Wildcats have won 47 straight games when leading at halftime, which is the second longest streak in the FBS.

*Baylor's fast starts have caused a lot of problems for their opposition this season. The Bears have outscored their opponents 323-117 in the first half of games this season, which gives them an average lead of 18.8 points going into halftime.

Trends:

*Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
*Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
*Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

(2) FSU Seminoles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+4.5)

*Much has been made of the Seminoles' tight games this season, which have been epitomized lately. In its last six games, FSU has won by an average of six points per game while winning by four or less three times. The Noles were favorites in each of those games, giving an average of just under 10 points, and went just 2-4 ATS.

*Georgia Tech’s 123 points off turnovers are the fourth-most in FBS this season. The Yellow Jackets' seven red-zone takeaways are also good for second in the FBS.

Trends:

*Seminoles are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
*Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 11-1 in Seminoles last 12 games on grass.

(11) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (6) Ohio State Buckeyes (+4)

*Though the numbers don't necessarily lend themselves to RB Melvin Gordon being overworked, it still worries coach Andersen. " It is definitely in my mind and concerning. This last stretch was unbelievable physical." Gordon has carried the ball 283 times - fifth most in the country - for a FBS-best 2,260 yards.

*It may be an uphill battle for the Buckeyes without stud QB J.T. Barrett, who was lost for the season last week. Sophomore Cardale Jones will be getting his first career start in a hostile environment Saturday. Jones' has a career stat line of 121 yards passing with two touchdowns through the air.

Trends:

*Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
*Over is 12-1 in Buckeyes last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

Fresno State Bulldogs at (22) Boise State Broncos (-21)

*Defense has played a large part for the three game winning streak of Fresno State. The Bulldogs are allowing 15 less points and 117 less yards in their past three compared to their first nine.

*Boise State posted a perfect November for the first time since 2009, thanks largely to its disciplined play. The Broncos were averaging 7.8 penalties per game through their first eight games, but cut that number to 4.8 last month.

Trends:

*Favorite is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
*Bulldogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
*Over is 7-0 in Broncos last 7 games overall.

**Udog** · 12-06-2014, 09:30 AM

NCAAF

Saturday, December 6

Inclement weather to hit C-USA Championship Game

When Louisiana Tech and Marshall square off in the Conference USA Championship Game in West Virginia Saturday afternoon, Mother Nature is going to be factor.

It's going to be a soggy day at Joan C. Edwards Stadium, as forecasts are calling for a 100 percent chance of rain at kickoff. Slight northwest winds of 5 mph will be hitting the area at gametime.

The Thundering Herd are presently 9.5-point home faves. The total is sitting at 68.5.

Rain on tap for AAC Championship Game

Rain is expected to have an affect on Houston's matchup against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Paul Brown Stadium Saturday.

The forecast is calling for an 89 percent chance of rain with 11 mph north winds in the Cincinnati area at gametime.

Books have the 'Cats listed as 7.5-point home faves with an O/U of 56.5.

Lots of points the norm in SMU contests

The Over is 7-3 in Southern Methodist's last 10 matchups. The winless Mustangs will travel to Conneticut for a date with the Huskies Saturday.

Oddsmakers have SMU as 12-point road dogs with a total of 44.

Spreads no match for TCU

Texas Christian's hot play ranks them as one of the best spread plays in college football.

TCU is 11-2 against the spread ahead of their matchup with Iowa State Saturday.

The Horned Frogs are currently 34.5-point home faves with a total of 69.

Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thursday, December 4 - Saturday, December 6)

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thursday, December 4 - Saturday, December 6)

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