Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2014, 05:21 PM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 4

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UCF (8 - 3) at E CAROLINA (8 - 3) - 12/4/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a Thursday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, December 5

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N ILLINOIS (10 - 2) vs. BOWLING GREEN (7 - 5) - 12/5/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 1-0 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 1-0 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (10 - 2) vs. OREGON (11 - 1) - 12/5/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 72-107 ATS (-45.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
OREGON is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OREGON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 6

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SMU (0 - 11) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 9) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IOWA ST (2 - 9) at TCU (10 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TCU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
TCU is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
TCU is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-1 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEMPLE (5 - 6) at TULANE (3 - 8) - 12/6/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 82-112 ATS (-41.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (7 - 4) at CINCINNATI (8 - 3) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS ST (9 - 2) at BAYLOR (10 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 6) at OKLAHOMA (8 - 3) - 12/6/2014, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOUISIANA TECH (8 - 4) at MARSHALL (11 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSOURI (10 - 2) vs. ALABAMA (11 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
MISSOURI is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA ST (12 - 0) vs. GEORGIA TECH (10 - 2) - 12/6/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WISCONSIN (10 - 2) vs. OHIO ST (11 - 1) - 12/6/2014, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 162-119 ATS (+31.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 162-119 ATS (+31.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 150-105 ATS (+34.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 124-94 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OHIO ST is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FRESNO ST (6 - 6) at BOISE ST (10 - 2) - 12/6/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 121-80 ATS (+33.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 121-80 ATS (+33.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 99-66 ATS (+26.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 86-60 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 77-44 ATS (+28.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-39 ATS (+26.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 79-51 ATS (+22.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 2-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-1 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2014, 05:22 PM

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thurs, Dec. 4

UCF at E Carolina, 7:30 ET
UCF: 7-0 ATS off a road win
E Carolina: 6-17 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Fri, Dec. 5

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green, 7:00 ET
N Illinois: 8-7 UNDER after a 2 game road trip
Bowling Green: 17-6 UNDER after playing a conference game

Arizona at Oregon, 9:00 ET
Arizona: 8-20 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game
Oregon: 7-0 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

Sat, Dec. 6

SMU at Connecticut, 12:00 ET
SMU: 17-32 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
Connecticut: 13-2 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Iowa State at TCU, 12:00 ET
Iowa St: 13-27 ATS in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game
TCU: 33-16 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game

Temple at Tulane, 7:30 ET
Temple: 6-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Tulane: 1-6 ATS after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game

Houston at Cincinnati, 12:00 ET
Houston: 7-1 ATS as a road underdog
Cincinnati: 6-1 UNDER against conference opponents

Kansas State at Baylor, 3:30 ET
Kansas St: 19-5 ATS after playing a conference game
Baylor: 27-12 OVER after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma State: 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 17.5 to 21 points
Oklahoma: 13-3 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Louisiana Tech at Marshall, 12:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 7-21 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
Marshall: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Missouri at Alabama, 4:00 ET
Missouri: 3-10 ATS in December games
Alabama: 27-13 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins

Florida State at Georgia Tech, 8:00 ET
Florida St: 14-5 UNDER as a neutral field favorite
Georgia Tech: 12-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Wisconsin at Ohio State, 8:15 ET
Wisconsin: 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Ohio State: 0-6 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival

Fresno State at Boise State, 10:10 ET
Fresno St: 16-10 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Boise St: 59-32 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2014, 05:22 PM

NCAAF

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 4

7:30 PM
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. EAST CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 6 games on the road
Central Florida is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
East Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Central Florida
East Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Friday, December 5

7:00 PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. BOWLING GREEN
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games when playing Bowling Green
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Bowling Green's last 6 games when playing Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 7 games

9:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. OREGON
Arizona is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Oregon
Arizona is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Saturday, December 6

12:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. CONNECTICUT
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Southern Methodist's last 10 games
Connecticut is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Connecticut is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home

12:00 PM
LOUISIANA TECH vs. MARSHALL
Louisiana Tech is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Louisiana Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Marshall is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
Marshall is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

12:00 PM
IOWA STATE vs. TCU
Iowa State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Iowa State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing TCU
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

12:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 16 games
Cincinnati is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston

TBA
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma State is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma State is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma State

4:00 PM
MISSOURI vs. ALABAMA
Missouri is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Missouri's last 10 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
TEMPLE vs. TULANE
Temple is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Temple's last 6 games
Tulane is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tulane is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:45 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. BAYLOR
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State's last 7 games on the road
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Baylor is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State

8:00 PM
FLORIDA STATE vs. GEORGIA TECH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 6 games when playing Georgia Tech
Florida State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Georgia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia Tech's last 9 games
Georgia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:17 PM
WISCONSIN vs. OHIO STATE
Wisconsin is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Wisconsin
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Ohio State's last 11 games

10:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. BOISE STATE
Fresno State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boise State
Fresno State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boise State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boise State's last 6 games at home
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Fresno State

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2014, 05:24 PM

MAC Championship Preview

December 3, 2014

The MAC Championship matchup is the same as last season despite some major changes for both programs this season as Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will meet Friday night in Detroit. Bowling Green beat Northern Illinois last season to cost the Huskies a possible BCS bowl spot, but neither squad is as decorated this season. Here is a preview of the big game to close an exciting season in the conference.

Match-up: Bowling Green Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies
Venue: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Date: Friday, December 5, 2014
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – ESPN2
Line: Northern Illinois -6½, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: 2013, Bowling Green (+3) 47-27

This is the fifth straight MAC Championship game for Northern Illinois and a chance to avenge last season’s loss to Bowling Green in the title game. The Huskies were 12-0 at this point last season with potentially a BCS bowl spot on the line heading into this game as a slight favorite. Bowling Green took control early with a 17-7 first quarter lead and the Huskies never got closer than four points in a 47-27 rout for the Falcons with 574 yards posted. Northern Illinois wound up in the Poinsettia Bowl where they lost to Utah State, while Bowling Green fell to Pittsburgh in the Little Caesar’s Bowl.

Bowling Green entered the season again as the favorites in the MAC East, but the program has gone through some major changes. After five solid seasons, Dave Clawson left Bowling Green to take over at Wake Forest. Dino Babers was hired to take over after two successful seasons at the FCS level at Eastern Illinois, while working his way up as a position coach at several prominent programs, notably at UCLA and Baylor. Babers brings an up-tempo pace to the offense and after a disastrous debut with a 59-31 loss to Western Kentucky, the Falcons posted a nice season at 7-5.

Bowling Green suffered a big blow early in the season as starting quarterback Matt Johnson was injured in that opener, but the Falcons still picked up a nice win over Indiana in non-conference play and wound up winning every game against the MAC East. The East was by far the weaker of the two MAC divisions this season with Bowling Green the only team to emerge with a winning record and the Falcons went 0-3 vs. the MAC West, though Northern Illinois was not on the schedule. Bowling Green limps into this game with back-to-back losses to close the season, but this is a difficult team to match up with as sophomore quarterback James Knapke had a number of strong performances and the offense has great rush/pass balance while scoring nearly 31 points per game.

Bowling Green has struggled defensively, allowing more points and yards than produced on the season and surrendering 6.1 yards per play. The run defense will be tested against the Huskies and compared with last season, Bowling Green is 198 points worse in scoring differential in conference games as last year’s squad was a truly dominant unit, especially on defense by MAC standards. The same type of decline can be seen for Northern Illinois as while the coaching staff remained, losing Heisman Trophy candidate Jordan Lynch was difficult and the Huskies were not nearly as impressive as past seasons despite another strong record. The Huskies were 142 points worse in MAC point differential compared with last season as both of these teams failed to match the success from 2013 despite doing enough to return to this title game.

Northern Illinois remains a viable rushing team, averaging 49 attempts and 246 yards per game on the ground. Sophomore Drew Hare leads the offense at quarterback and with a 15/1 touchdown to interception ratio as he has been efficient while avoiding big mistakes. Hare is not as central to the offense as Lynch was, though still rushing for nearly 800 yards this season to lead the team on the ground. Northern Illinois was actually out-rushed in three MAC games this season and despite a few early fumbles last week, the Huskies turned the ball over rarely this season, featuring one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation.

Northern Illinois is riding a six-game win streak, but there have been some narrow escapes with none of the wins coming by more than 14 points. Last week’s win at Western Michigan featured six turnovers to help the Huskies back into the title game and this will technically be a third straight away game for the Huskies. The Huskies only out-scored foes by six points per game this season in a 10-2 campaign and they were not often the most impressive team in a loaded MAC West division with four teams that each would be favored over Bowling Green in this game, counting Western Michigan, Toledo, and Central Michigan in addition to the Huskies. It is worth noting that the underdog has actually covered in each of the last four MAC championship games.

Last season’s win was the first since 2003 for Bowling Green in this series though they have covered in four of seven meetings since 1998. Bowling Green has been on a great run in the underdog role going 52-39-2 ATS since 1998 when getting points. The Falcons covered in two of three games this season as an underdog and four of the last five instances going back to last season. Northern Illinois is just 3-11-1 ATS in neutral site games since 2005 and the Huskies have failed to cover in five of six games as a favorite since October, despite a 29-21-3 ATS run as a favorite since 2010. The Huskies are 20-12 ATS since 1999 as a favorite of fewer than seven points.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2014, 05:26 PM

Friday's Title Tips

December 3, 2014

MAC Championship Preview

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (10-2) vs. BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (7-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Northern Illinois -7, Total:62
Opening Line & Total: Northern Illinois-5.5, Total: 59

Northern Illinois attempts to win its third MAC Championship in four years when it takes on Bowling Green Friday evening in Detroit.

The Huskies are playing in this conference title game for the fifth straight season, but after capturing wins in both 2011 and 2012, they entered last year's game with a 12-0 record and these Falcons shocked them with a 47-27 blowout win, racking up 574 yards of offense and intercepting two NIU passes.

This year, the Huskies put together another stellar season and dominated their conference with a 7-1 record SU with their lone loss coming to Central Michigan on Oct. 11 by a score of 34-17 as 8-point favorites at home. They have ripped off six straight wins since that setback, but in conference play they did not do very well for bettors, though, going 3-5 ATS while actually covering three of their past four games. NIU had some close calls down the stretch, winning by an average of just 6.7 PPG in its past three contests while being the underdog in each of the past two games. The school finished off the year with a nice win over Western Michigan in which it outscored the Broncos 31-21 while getting 8.5-points on the road. Northern Illinois scored the final 24 points of the game behind 355 yards of offense and six forced turnovers.

Bowling Green has not been quite as dominant as its counterpart in this one, going 5-3 SU (2-5 ATS) in conference, and made this championship game despite losing its past two games. The Falcons took defeats against Toledo (by a score of 27-20), and then finished the regular season off with a disappointing 41-24 loss to Ball State as 10-point favorites at home. They were able to get 314 yards rushing in the game against the Cardinals but failed to make plays when they needed to in a contest where the teams combined for 939 yards of total offense.

Before last season's MAC Championship Game upset, the Huskies had won the previous three meetings in this series (2-1 ATS) by an average of 17.0 PPG. Trends show that NIU is 11-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992, while Bowling Green is 12-3 ATS (80%) after playing a game at home over the past three seasons. There are no significant injuries to either roster in this big game.

Northern Illinois has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation as they gain 246.2 YPG on the ground (18th in FBS) while passing for a mere 187.2 YPG (103rd in nation) and have scored 30.6 PPG (55th in FBS). QB Drew Hare (1,879 pass yards, 15 TD, 1 INT) may not have a ton of volume, but is extremely efficient with a 60% completion rate for 7.5 YPA. He attempted just 20.8 passes per game and surpassed 200 yards only twice, but mainly serves as a runner while leading the team with 790 yards on the ground (5.9 YPC) and seven touchdowns.

Joining him in the backfield is HB Cameron Stingily (779 rush yards, 11 TD) who has three performances of 100+ rushing yards, but has averaged a mere 51.3 YPG over the past three games. Stingily rushed for 74 yards on 12 carries (6.2 YPC) in last year's MAC title game versus Bowling Green.

Northern Illinois' one receiver of note is WR Da’Ron Brown (932 rec yards, 6 TD) who has averaged a strong 16.9 yards per catch while hitting the century mark for yards on three separate occasions.

The Huskies defense has been decent while allowing opponents to score 24.2 PPG (45th in nation) on 390.9 total yards per game, and have allowed more than 21 points just once over their past five performances. DB Marlon Moore (86 tackles, 1 INT), LB Rasheen Lemon (81 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and DL Jason Meehan (46 tackles, 7 sacks) have all been impressive on this side of the ball.

The Falcons bring a much more balanced offense to the table in this one while scoring 30.8 PPG (54th in FBS) behind 258.9 passing YPG (42nd in nation) and 180.6 rushing YPG (49th in FBS). QB James Knapke (2,654 pass yards, 12 TD, 10 INT) has struggled with turnovers, as he has thrown a pick in eight of his 11 games while actually going over 300 yards in four different performances. He performed very poorly in the final two contests of the year as the team lost both times and Knapke combined to connect on just 25-of-51 passes (49%) with an average of 105.5 YPG through the air.

HB Travis Greene (803 rush yards, 9 TD) is coming off his best showing of the year when he rushed for 159 yards (11.4 YPC) and a score in the loss to Ball State. He has also been a solid receiver with 180 yards on 24 catches (7.5 avg) and 1 TD. In last year's MAC Championship, Greene racked up 156 total yards with a pair of touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 receiving). Greene has some solid depth behind him, as both HBs Fred Coppet (653 rush yards, 6 TD) and Andre Givens (474 rush yards, 8 TD) have done well. WR Roger Lewis (934 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the biggest threat through the air while the team has plenty of great options with WRs Ryan Burbrink (663 rec yards, 3 TD) and Ronnie Moore (598 rec yards, 5 TD) getting some solid production.

The reason this team isn’t better, is a defense that has allowed 32.5 PPG (101st in nation) and has giving up more than 40 points five times this year. The Falcons have surrendered 494.7 total yards per game, including 565.8 total YPG in six non-home games. LB Gabe Martin (100 tackles, 2 INT, 15 TFL) and DB Nick Johnson (61 tackles, 5 INT) have been bright spots on this side of the ball, but will need do a much better job to win the championship game.

Pac-12 Championship Preview
ARIZONA WILDCATS (10-2) vs. OREGON DUCKS (11-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -14, Total: 73
Opening Line & Total: Oregon -14.5, Total: 72

No. 2 Oregon looks to get revenge for its one loss on the year when it faces No. 7 Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship game on Friday night.

The Wildcats have looked great all season while losing just two games SU, but is a meager 5-7 ATS on the season. They were able to cover in each of their final two contests though, as they first secured a huge 42-10 win over Utah as 5.5-point underdogs and then earned a trip to this conference championship game with a solid 42-35 victory as 1.5-point favorites at home against in-state rival Arizona State. Arizona was outplayed in nearly every facet of last week's game, as it was outgained 380-333 while each school committed two turnovers.

The Ducks had no trouble getting to their second conference championship game in four years, as they went 8-1 SU in conference play (7-2 ATS) and defeated their opponents by an average of 24.3 PPG over their seven-game winning streak to cap off the season. Their final game came on the road as big 21-point favorites against Oregon State and they had no trouble in that contest, jumping out to a 30-3 halftime lead and cruising to a 47-19 win. They dropped 565 yards of offense on their opponent with 367 of those yards coming through the air.

Arizona has been a thorn in Oregon’s side over the past two seasons in handing them two of their three SU losses during that time. The Wildcats have won by an average of 16.5 PPG in those meetings and were 31-24 victors as 21.5-point underdogs earlier this season when they met in Eugene. They outgained the Ducks 495 to 466, and allowed just 144 yards (3.5 YPC) on the ground.

Bettors should be aware that Arizona is 12-3 ATS (80%) after a home game were both teams score 31 or more points since 1992, while Oregon is 25-5 ATS (83%) after leading its previous two games by 14+ points at the half since 1992 as well. The only significant injury in this game is Arizona RB Terris Jones-Grigsby (ankle), who is listed as questionable. When these schools met in October, Jones-Grisby compiled 210 total yards and a touchdown.

Arizona has put forth a solid offensive effort all season long as it is throwing for 291.4 YPG (18th in nation) and running for 189.8 YPG (44th in FBS) while scoring 36.7 PPG (20th in nation). Freshman QB Anu Solomon (3,424 pass yards, 27 TD, 7 INT) has been out of this world, as he is averaging 39.9 pass attempts per game and has thrown for over 390 yards in three contests. He has been relied on much less in the past three games though, throwing just two touchdowns and averaging 202.7 YPG passing. He’s had some big performances running the ball as well, and has 282 rushing yards (2.6 YPC) and a touchdown on the ground this year. Solomon threw for 287 yards (9.3 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT in the upset over the Ducks earlier this year.

The real star in the rushing attack is HB Nick Wilson (1,263 rush yards, 15 TD) who has seven performances of 100+ yards this year and rushed for 92 yards and scored 3 total TD in the win at Oregon on Oct. 2. He has scored 8 TD in the past three games and is averaging 163.3 YPG over his past four contests. WR Cayleb Jones (831 rec yards, 8 TD) has been the benefactor of Solomon’s big year, but has put up a mere 32.2 receiving YPG over the past five games. The Wildcats like to spread the ball out, and have six other receivers with 20 or more catches while 10 different players have a touchdown.

The defense has been decent in allowing 25.5 PPG (57th in nation), but also surrenders 434.7 total yards per game. Superstar LB Scooby Wright III (140 tackles, 14 sacks) continues to anchor this unit.

As usual, the Ducks have one of the best offenses in the nation while putting up the nation's fourth-most points (45.9 PPG) as they pass for 307.5 YPG (11th in FBS) and run for 232.0 YPG (24th in nation). QB Marcus Mariota (3,470 yards, 36 TD, 2 INT) is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy as he is completing 68.2% of his passes for 10.4 YPA and has averaged 289.1 YPG. His two picks came in back-to-back games against Cal and Stanford and since then, he has thrown 10 TD in three games, including a big performance in the win over Oregon State when he tallied 406 total yards and 6 TD (4 passing, 2 rushing).

Of course one of Mariota's biggest assets is his ability to run the ball, and he has totaled 636 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and 11 TD on the year. Although he threw the ball well versus Arizona on Oct. 2 with 276 yards (8.6 YPA) and 2 TD and even caught a 26-yard touchdown pass, the Wildcats held Mariota to one yard on nine carries.

HB Royce Freeman (1,185 rush yards, 16 TD) has been huge as a freshman, and has been especially big recently with all five of his 100-yard rushing performances coming in the past seven games where he is averaging 119.8 YPG. WR Byron Marshall (791 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the top option through the air, while the trio of WR Devon Allen (638 rec yards, 6 TD), WR Dwayne Stanford (557 rec yards, 6 TDs) and TE Pharaoh Brown (420 rec yards, 6 TDs) have also been effective.

The defense for this team has also been solid on the year and is giving up 23.3 PPG (32nd in nation), but also 429.6 total yards per game to its opponents. DB Erick Dargan (81 tackles, 5 INT) has been a difference maker for this team in his final collegiate season.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2014, 05:27 PM

Oregon, Arizona share similar offenses

December 3, 2014

Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez helped devise the hurry-up spread offense nearly 25 years ago. Then coach Chip Kelly made Oregon famous for it.

These days, current Ducks coach Mark Helfrich acknowledges the offensive similarities between Oregon and Arizona, calling them cousins.

''I don't know what kind of cousin,'' Helfrich joked about his analogy. ''Route structure is a little different off it, how they use their quarterback. But a run-based, spread offense, being able to throw the ball, mix those things up, but yeah, it's very similar.''

The two similar schemes will meet - again - on Friday night when the No. 3 Ducks (11-1, 8-1) play the No. 8 Wildcats (10-2, 7-2) in the Pac-12 championship.

Rodriguez, named this season's Pac-12 Coach of the Year, also zeroed in on the familiarity factor.

''Philosophically, they look very, very similar, not only the tempo with which they're able to go at, but how they want to attack the field from vertical and horizontal standpoints,'' Rodriguez told reporters on a teleconference earlier this week. ''You'd think these two coaches are related.''

As head coach at Glenville State in West Virginia in 1990, Rodriguez wanted to run a spread formation but he had a quarterback who was on the smallish side - so he went to a run-based system out of the shotgun. To keep defenses even more off-balance, he decided to run the offense without ever huddling.

Rodriguez eventually brought his innovative offense to West Virginia, turning a team that won three games his first season into a national contender.

Fast forward to 2007, when Oregon coach Mike Bellotti hired Kelly as his offensive coordinator. Kelly put a hurry-up, no-huddle spread option on hyperdrive that thrived with a mobile quarterback, Dennis Dixon. By 2008, the Ducks were averaging nearly 42 points and 485 yards of total offense per game.

In 2010, with Kelly as head coach, the Ducks led the nation with averages of 47 points and 531 total yards per game. The revved-up offenses left opponents so gassed they were known to fake injuries to get a breather.

Helfrich, who was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach under Kelly, took over as head coach in 2013 when Kelly went to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Led by mobile Heisman-hopeful quarterback Marcus Mariota, Oregon is ranked atop the conference this year for the eighth-straight season with an average of nearly 46 points per game. The Ducks average 539.5 yards in total offense, also first in the league. Arizona is ranked fourth in the Pac-12 in both categories, with 36.7 points and 481.2 total yards per game.

Some have said that Rodriguez's knowledge of the offense - he helped invent it, after all - is why the Wildcats have had success over the Ducks in their past two meetings.

Arizona visited Eugene in early October and came away with a 31-24 victory. It was the lowest point output for the high-flying Ducks this season.

Arizona held the Ducks to 144 yards rushing and linebacker Scooby Wright sealed it when he sacked Mariota and stripped him of the ball for a rare turnover to stuff Oregon's final drive.

Last season when Oregon visited Tucson, Mariota was intercepted on the first play from scrimmage and it went downhill for the Ducks from there in a 42-16 loss. It was Oregon's second loss of the season, knocking the Ducks out of both the Pac-12 championship and snapping a streak of four straight BCS bowl bids.

With just the one loss to Arizona this season, Oregon is No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. With a victory on Friday, the Ducks will undoubtedly have one of the four spots in the first playoffs.

Arizona, which vaulted this week to No. 7 in the CFP rankings, earned its spot by winning the tight Pac-12 South, after UCLA lost to Stanford and the Wildcats defeated Arizona State in the final week of the regular season.

Earlier this week, Rodriguez suggested that in the end, it might not matter which offense is better. It may come down to the defenses.

''I like to play teams that aren't very good, but when you play this game you are going to play someone really good,'' he said. ''The thing about Oregon is that we are very similar philosophically offensively. They are going to play fast, and their defense and our defense is used to seeing it.''

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2014, 11:49 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15

Central Florida at East Carolina
The Knights head to East Carolina on Thursday with the American Athletic Conference championship on the line and face a Pirates team that is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games. East Carolina is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-7). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

Game 103-104: Central Florida at East Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 86.633; East Carolina 96.578
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 10; 60
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-7); Over

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5

Game 105-106: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 78.427; Northern Illinois 79.406
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 7; 59
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+7); Under

Game 107-108: Arizona vs. Oregon (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 102.376; Oregon 118.705
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 16 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: Oregon by 14; 73 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-14); Over

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6

Game 109-110: SMU at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 60.129; Connecticut 76.520
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 16 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 11 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-11 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: Iowa State at TCU (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 76.512; TCU 119.302
Dunkel Line: TCU by 43; 72
Vegas Line: TCU by 33 1/2; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-33 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Temple at Tulane (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 80.904; Tulane 79.965
Dunkel Line: Temple by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Temple by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+4); Under

Game 115-116: Houston at Cincinnati (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 87.132; Cincinnati 90.345
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 54
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 57
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Under

Game 117-118: Kansas State at Baylor (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 107.254; Baylor 110.079
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 3; 64
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 119-120: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 88.214; Oklahoma 105.038
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 17; 57
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 20; 60
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+20); Under

Game 121-122: Louisiana Tech at Marshall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 92.314; Marshall 96.353
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 4; 64
Vegas Line: Marshall by 12 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+12 1/2); Under

Game 123-124: Alabama vs. Missouri (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 114.857; Missouri 97.914
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 17; 53
Vegas Line: Alabama by 14 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-14 1/2); Over

Game 125-126: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 107.620; Georgia Tech 100.584
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 7; 64
Vegas Line: Florida State by 3 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: Wisconsin vs. Ohio State (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 114.994; Ohio State 104.921
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 10; 57
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 4; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-4); Over

Game 129-130: Fresno State at Boise State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 86.049; Boise State 103.560
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 17 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Boise Sate by 21; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+21); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2014, 11:50 AM

NCAAF

Thursday, December 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Central Florida at East Carolina
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCF Knights at ECU Pirates (-7, 56)

UCF bounced back nicely from an unexpected road loss to Connecticut by handily defeating three other teams in the bottom half of the American Athletic Conference. The Knights figure to be challenged a bit more Thursday at East Carolina when they look to claim their share of the conference title. UCF fell to the Huskies 37-29 on Nov. 1 to give UConn its only AAC victory, but has outscored Tulsa, SMU and South Florida by a combined 100-14 in three games since.

The Knights, who boast the league’s best scoring, passing and total defense, are tied with Cincinnati for second in the AAC - one-half game behind Memphis. A two-game losing streak in early November cost the Pirates a shot at the AAC title, but East Carolina figures to pose a formidable threat to UCF as the Pirates feature the conference’s highest-scoring and most prolific offense. East Carolina enters its regular-season finale with back-to-back convincing victories over Tulane and Tulsa, each of whom has two conference wins.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Pirates as 5 or 5.5-point home faves, but that has moved to -7. The total is currently 56 after opening 54.5 or 55.5

INJURY REPORT: Knights - RB William Stanback (Probable, undisclosed). Pirates - WR Trevon Brown (Out, knee).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT UCF (8-3, 6-1 AAC): Although the Knights were held to less than 400 total yards for the first time in five games, Breshad Perriman continued his assault on the Knights’ all-time records. The junior receiver finished with team highs of six receptions, 55 yards and a touchdown, becoming the first UCF player since 2000 to catch a scoring pass in six straight contests. The Knights’ 16-0 shutout of USF last week marked the first time UCF blanked a conference team on the road.

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (8-3, 5-2): The nation’s third-ranked passing attack continued to get solid production from their ground-game counterparts in Friday’s 49-32 victory at Tulsa with 172 rushing yards, including 91 on six carries from backup running back Chris Hairston. The strong rushing effort gave the Pirates 1,971 rushing yards for the season with two games remaining while leaving them 29 yards shy of their first 2,000-yard season as a team since 2009. Conversely, East Carolina surrendered a season-high 189 yards on the ground to the Golden Hurricane – doubling its season average entering the contest.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 7-3 in Knights last 10 conference games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of bettors are on the Pirates.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2014, 11:52 AM

Big Ten Championship Preview

December 3, 2014

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Wisconsin -4, Total 53

The Big Ten Championship game takes place at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday with Ohio State representing the East and Wisconsin representing the West.

The dynamic of this matchup completely changed with the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. With Barrett under center, OSU would have likely been a 3-5 point favorite in this game.

Instead, Wisconsin heads into the weekend as a four-point favorite. The dynamic of the matchup may have changed, but the stakes are still just as high for the Buckeyes, who could potentially move into the CFB Playoff top four with a win over the Badgers.

OSU’s Barrett, a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, broke his ankle in last week’s win over Michigan. Only a handful of quarterbacks were having better campaigns than Barrett, who tallied 2,834 passing yards and 34 pass TD’s & 938 rush yards and 11 TD’s this season.

He’ll give way to third-string QB Cardale Jones, who has shown flashes of brilliance in limited playing time. Jones – a 6’5” 230 LB sophomore – has completed 11-of-19 passes for 121 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT in two years at OSU. He’s a proven running threat as well as he has tallied 334 rush yards on 43 attempts with 1 TD in his two-year career.

Still, most of those stats came in mop-up duty in OSU blowout wins, and it’ll be a completely different atmosphere in Indianapolis on Saturday. He’ll also be taking on a Wisconsin defense that ranks 2nd nationally in total YPG allowed, 2nd in pass YPG allowed, 8th in rush YPG allowed, and 4th in PPG allowed.

No opponent has topped 28 points against the Badgers this season (LSU & Illinois each scored 28 points) while six have been held to fewer than 20 points. The Bucks have scored fewer than 31 points just once this season and that was the 21-35 loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th.

Wisconsin has held opposing rushing attacks to just 103.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC with just three individuals exceeding 100 rush yards. The pass defense has been even better, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 46.4% completions with 10 TD and 6 INT.

They do a great job of getting after the quarterback (35 sacks) and stalling drives (13.3 first downs per game allowed – 1st in the B1G).

OSU’s defense has been tested already with some of the running backs & offensive lines that it has faced throughout B1G play. Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford, Minnesota’s David Cobb, and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman – three of the top RB’s in the nation – all had success against this Ohio State defense. Those three combined for 510 rush yards (170 rush YPG) on 7.1 YPC with 9 touchdowns.

The silver lining in that stat is that despite the success those three had on the ground, OSU won all three of those games by 11.3 PPG. Those previous struggles could be a significant issue with Melvin Gordon on deck this weekend. No opponent, aside from FCS Western Illinois, has had success slowing Gordon. He leads the nation with 2,260 rush yards on nearly 8.0 yards per carry with 29 total touchdowns. He seems to have gotten stronger as the season has progressed as he has tallied at least 200 rushing yards in three of the last four games.

Neither team has a huge situational edge here as Wisconsin has been to Indy twice (’11 & ’12) while Ohio State was here last year. Wisconsin is 2-0 SU, beating Michigan State in 2011 and Nebraska in 2012 while Ohio State lost the B1G Championship to Michigan State last year, 24-34.

OSU has won seven of the last 10 against Wisconsin, but is just 5-4-1 ATS in those games with just +3.4 the average margin (six of 10 games decided by seven points or fewer).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2014, 11:53 AM

MAC Championship Preview

December 3, 2014

The MAC Championship matchup is the same as last season despite some major changes for both programs this season as Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will meet Friday night in Detroit. Bowling Green beat Northern Illinois last season to cost the Huskies a possible BCS bowl spot, but neither squad is as decorated this season. Here is a preview of the big game to close an exciting season in the conference.

Match-up: Bowling Green Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies
Venue: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Date: Friday, December 5, 2014
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – ESPN2
Line: Northern Illinois -6½, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: 2013, Bowling Green (+3) 47-27

This is the fifth straight MAC Championship game for Northern Illinois and a chance to avenge last season’s loss to Bowling Green in the title game. The Huskies were 12-0 at this point last season with potentially a BCS bowl spot on the line heading into this game as a slight favorite. Bowling Green took control early with a 17-7 first quarter lead and the Huskies never got closer than four points in a 47-27 rout for the Falcons with 574 yards posted. Northern Illinois wound up in the Poinsettia Bowl where they lost to Utah State, while Bowling Green fell to Pittsburgh in the Little Caesar’s Bowl.

Bowling Green entered the season again as the favorites in the MAC East, but the program has gone through some major changes. After five solid seasons, Dave Clawson left Bowling Green to take over at Wake Forest. Dino Babers was hired to take over after two successful seasons at the FCS level at Eastern Illinois, while working his way up as a position coach at several prominent programs, notably at UCLA and Baylor. Babers brings an up-tempo pace to the offense and after a disastrous debut with a 59-31 loss to Western Kentucky, the Falcons posted a nice season at 7-5.

Bowling Green suffered a big blow early in the season as starting quarterback Matt Johnson was injured in that opener, but the Falcons still picked up a nice win over Indiana in non-conference play and wound up winning every game against the MAC East. The East was by far the weaker of the two MAC divisions this season with Bowling Green the only team to emerge with a winning record and the Falcons went 0-3 vs. the MAC West, though Northern Illinois was not on the schedule. Bowling Green limps into this game with back-to-back losses to close the season, but this is a difficult team to match up with as sophomore quarterback James Knapke had a number of strong performances and the offense has great rush/pass balance while scoring nearly 31 points per game.

Bowling Green has struggled defensively, allowing more points and yards than produced on the season and surrendering 6.1 yards per play. The run defense will be tested against the Huskies and compared with last season, Bowling Green is 198 points worse in scoring differential in conference games as last year’s squad was a truly dominant unit, especially on defense by MAC standards. The same type of decline can be seen for Northern Illinois as while the coaching staff remained, losing Heisman Trophy candidate Jordan Lynch was difficult and the Huskies were not nearly as impressive as past seasons despite another strong record. The Huskies were 142 points worse in MAC point differential compared with last season as both of these teams failed to match the success from 2013 despite doing enough to return to this title game.

Northern Illinois remains a viable rushing team, averaging 49 attempts and 246 yards per game on the ground. Sophomore Drew Hare leads the offense at quarterback and with a 15/1 touchdown to interception ratio as he has been efficient while avoiding big mistakes. Hare is not as central to the offense as Lynch was, though still rushing for nearly 800 yards this season to lead the team on the ground. Northern Illinois was actually out-rushed in three MAC games this season and despite a few early fumbles last week, the Huskies turned the ball over rarely this season, featuring one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation.

Northern Illinois is riding a six-game win streak, but there have been some narrow escapes with none of the wins coming by more than 14 points. Last week’s win at Western Michigan featured six turnovers to help the Huskies back into the title game and this will technically be a third straight away game for the Huskies. The Huskies only out-scored foes by six points per game this season in a 10-2 campaign and they were not often the most impressive team in a loaded MAC West division with four teams that each would be favored over Bowling Green in this game, counting Western Michigan, Toledo, and Central Michigan in addition to the Huskies. It is worth noting that the underdog has actually covered in each of the last four MAC championship games.

Last season’s win was the first since 2003 for Bowling Green in this series though they have covered in four of seven meetings since 1998. Bowling Green has been on a great run in the underdog role going 52-39-2 ATS since 1998 when getting points. The Falcons covered in two of three games this season as an underdog and four of the last five instances going back to last season. Northern Illinois is just 3-11-1 ATS in neutral site games since 2005 and the Huskies have failed to cover in five of six games as a favorite since October, despite a 29-21-3 ATS run as a favorite since 2010. The Huskies are 20-12 ATS since 1999 as a favorite of fewer than seven points.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-06-2014, 01:33 AM

Total Notes - Week 15

December 5, 2014

After taking a two-week break for the holidays and start of college basketball, VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos returns with his insight for the five college football championship games set for Saturday. He offers up his quick handicap on all five matchups and provide his key Line Moves for Week 15.

Conference USA Championship (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Louisiana Tech at Marshall

Manos: This is one conference where the league's two best teams will be facing off for the title. No surprises with this matchup as these have been the conference's two best teams for the entire season. I made the number for this game 67 so there is little value in the currently posted total but I would have been looking to potentially play this game UNDER had I gotten a better number. Last week's results ruined any chance for OVER bettors to get a favorable number as Louisiana Tech won 76-31 while Marshall lost 67-66.

That inflated this number a bit but it may help players looking to bet UNDER as the public may look at last week's results and help drive this number up a bit. A few factors have me believing we may see a lower scoring game than expected.

While the perception is that Marshall has a high flying, fast paced offense (last week's results won't hurt that perception) the reality is that the Thundering Herd has simply relied on its talent level to beat most of its opponents.

Marshall runs 73.8 plays per game which is good for just 63rd in the country. That is down from 80.2 plays per game last year and this will be by far the best defense that they've seen this season. La. Tech has also relied on a weak slate of opponents to boost its offensive numbers as they run just 70.6 plays per game which is good for 91st in the country, and I doubt they want a shootout in this contest.

I think the UNDER will be the play here and 71 would be my "buy" price.

SEC Championship (CBS, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Missouri vs. Alabama

Manos: This total is a bit surprising considering the increased scoring in the SEC this year. However, the presence of Missouri in this game and the reputation of the Alabama defense, likely combined to hold this total under 50.

My question for this matchup would be, how does Missouri score TD's in this game? True, the Alabama defense is down a notch from previous editions but the Crimson Tide still possess NFL talent at most positions and have the game’s best defensive mind (Nick Saban) on the sideline.

The Tigers rely almost solely on the run and being one-dimensional will be tough vs. this Alabama defense. Three times this season, Alabama faced teams with truly one-dimensional offenses. In those games they allowed an average of 8.7 points per game. The Missouri defense played well down the stretch and with a guaranteed playoff berth looming with a victory, Alabama might get very conservative with a lead.

ACC Championship (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech

Manos: This total is set correctly and I really want no part of wagering on either side. The Georgia Tech offense has been clicking down the stretch but hasn't faced a defensive front 7 as athletic as the Seminoles often this season. A similar opponent would be Clemson and in that game the Yellow Jackets threw for just 102 yards. Here, they will be without their best receiver and primary passing TD target so those numbers might diminish even further. Georgia Tech does what it does and they are relentless with the option so expect Georgia Tech's offense to be unchanged from previous weeks. My numbers have them rushing for 292 yards which is 42 yards below their season average.

Another slow start by the Seminoles may doom them here as trailing the Yellow Jackets allows them to simply grind out offensive snaps and chew up yards and the clock. Florida State needs to play from lead in this contest, they know that, and that may force them to be very aggressive in the early going. That could lead to an offensive explosion (the 2nd half vs Louisville) or an offensive implosion (the first 10 minutes of the Florida game), I stay far away from this total.

Big 10 Championship (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

Manos: I will keep my analysis of this contest short and sweet. Possibly no handicapper in the country is as upset about the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.Y. Barrett as me, and I'll tell you why. I had been anticipating and expecting this matchup for several weeks and had this total earmarked as a potential Game of the Year play. I think with Barrett, this total would have likely opened at 56.5 or 57 and I would have gladly played OVER either of those numbers for my largest wager of the year. His injury has completely changed the outlook of this game and thrown a wrench into a matchup I had been looking forward to for weeks. I wish young QB Barrett a speedy recovery but, sadly, his injury has ruined this game from a wagering perspective.

In addition, the unfortunate death of Ohio State defensive lineman Kosta Karageorge has added another element of uncertainty to this contest. How will the Buckeyes react to the tragedy? How will backup QB Cardale Jones play with only one week to prepare for one of the nation's best defenses? Can the Badgers throw the ball well enough to take some pressure of Heisman candidate RB Gordon? How severe was the ankle injury that RB Gordon suffered vs Minnesota last week? Too many questions for me to get involved now.

Mountain West Championship (CBS, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Fresno State at Boise State

Manos: Here we get a rematch from a game earlier this season; a game that featured a misleading final. In that contest, the Bulldogs managed to stay within 10 points of Boise despite being dominated at the point of attack and being out-yarded 492-313. Fresno State faced four bowl quality squads this season (USC, Utah, Nebraska, Boise State) and in those games allowed an average of 50.8 PPG and 570 YPG.

Boise State excelled down the stretch averaging 50.6 PPG since its last loss and getting solid QB play from QB Grant Hedrick to balance the power running of RB Jay Ajayi. With the Broncos needing some style points and a comfortable win to help gain a New Year's Day bowl invite, don't expect them to take their foot off the gas with a lead.

My numbers, unsurprisingly, project the Broncos to score 48 points and have an offensive efficiency of 59.2%. I think it's likely the Broncos exceed my projected numbers and blow the Bulldogs out in this contest. Reaching the 68 point total will depend on what you get from Fresno. In the first meeting they relied solely on big plays to score…..big plays that the Boise State defense is no longer surrendering.

Tough to play OVER a total this high in a championship game but I lean that side.

James Manos (55%) continues to produce college winners on VegasInsider.com!

Line Moves

This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement: Missouri/Alabama UNDER

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement: Temple/Tulane OVER

3) Public Movement: Houston/Cincinnati OVER

4) Market Manipulation: Wisconsin/Ohio State UNDER

**StarDust Bum** · 12-06-2014, 01:35 AM

ACC Championship Preview

December 5, 2014

Matchup: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Line, Total: Seminoles -4, 61

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) are back in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game for the third consecutive season, and they figure to have a much more difficult time than last season when the Duke Blue Devils were a surprise entrant from the Coastal Division. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) qualified for the big game for the first time since 2012, and third time in the past six seasons.

The Seminoles have a difficult matchup, as they look to work their way into the first-ever four-team college football playoff. A loss to Georgia Tech in Charlotte and the Seminoles can kiss those aspirations good-bye. Georgia Tech has no realistic chance at the four-team field, but they could work their way into a possible for a spot in the one of the elite non-playoff New Year's Day bowl games, so they have plenty on the line as well.

Florida State has had an ugly penchant for allowing teams to hang around this season, failing to exhibit the kind of dominance we saw in their title run. It all started in the regular season opener when they barely snuck by what has turned out to be a subpar Oklahoma State team. They were 18-point favorites then, but barely scraped out a 37-31 win. They barely escaped against Clemson Sept. 20, as the Tigers nearly had the game in the bag until a late fumble helped Florida State force overtime, and pull off a six-point win. The Seminoles were up against it again Sept. 27 at N.C. State before pulling away in the fourth quarter, but failing to cover for a fourth straight game.

FSU's most dominant game of the season game against Wake Forest, and that isn't saying much considering the Demon Deacons were in the basement all season. Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, Boston College and Florida each seemingly had the 'Noles on the ropes, but they were unable to deliver the knockout punch. And isn't that what championship-caliber teams do? Find a way to win?

Despite distraction after distraction from the Jameis Winston circus, to an alleged assault by Karlos Williams on his girlfriend, to a supposed hit-and-run involving starting cornerbacks Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams, the Seminoles have overcome it all. Now, they have one more obstacle.

Williams, by the way, will be sidelined for the ACC Championship Game. It has nothing to do with disciplinary action, but he suffered a concussion against Florida last week. As a result, freshman tailback Dalvin Cook will be leaned upon more against a Georgia Tech rushing defense which was middle of the pack in total defense, ranking 58th in the nation while allowing 167.9 yards per game on the ground to check in 70th overall against the run.

In the passing game, Winston will look early and often for Rashad Greene, who easily led the team with 86 catches, 1,183 yards and five touchdown grabs. Nick O'Leary, the team's NFL prospect tight end, is also a sure pair of hands who will figure into the offense prominently.

The two teams did not meet this season, but they did play in 2012 ACC title game, with FSU prevailing just 21-15 against a .500 Yellow Jackets team despite being favored by two touchdowns.

For Georgia Tech, they come into the game having won and covered five consecutive games dating back to their last loss of the season Oct. 18 at North Carolina. They still run the triple-option attack, but signal caller Justin Thomas is more than just a runner. The dual-threat QB has thrown for 1,460 yards, 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions while leading the team with 861 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and five scores. Zack Laskey leads the team with eight rushing scores and 748 yards, while DeAndre Smelter is the guy to watch in the passing game. He led the team with 715 yards and seven touchdowns, posting 20.4 yards per reception.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Seminoles managed to cover just three of their 12 regular season games this season, including their opening game on a neutral field against Oklahoma State. They were favored by 18 in that game and won just 37-31 back on Aug. 30 in Arlington, Texas.

-- The Yellow Jackets enterd play having covered five consecutive games, and they're 4-0 ATS in their past four against a team with a winning overall record. On a grass surface, the Ramblin' Wreck is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their past five, and they're 4-0 ATS in their past four against conference foes.

-- The past four games for Florida State has gone 'under', and the under has cashed in eight of the past 11. OVerall, the under is 11-1 in FSU's past 12 games on grass, and 6-1 in their past seven neutral-site games, although their lone neutral-site site game this season went over.

-- For Georgia Tech, the under has been a dominant trend, going 6-2 in their past eight games against a team with a winning overall record, and 5-1 in their past six neutral-site games. The under is also 6-1 in Georgia Tech's past seven following a straight-up win, and 4-1 in their past five games in the month of December.

-- In this series, Florida State is 0-3-2 ATS in the past five meetings, and the underdog has is 3-0-2 ATS in the past five meetings.

ACC Championship History

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY

Year Matchup Line Score ATS Result

2013 Florida State-Duke Florida State -30 (66) Florida State 45-7 Favorite-Under

2012 Florida State-Georgia Tech Florida State -14 (62) Florida State 21-15 Underdog-Under

2011 Virginia Tech-Clemson Virginia Tech -7 (54) Clemson 38-10 Underdog-Under

2010 Virginia Tech-Florida State Virginia Tech -4.5 (51) Virginia Tech 44-33 Favorite-Over

2009 Georgia Tech-Clemson Georgia Tech -1 (56.5) Georgia Tech 39-34 Favorite-Over

2008 Virginia Tech-Boston College Virginia Tech -1 (38.5) Virginia Tech 30-12 Favorite-Over

2007 Virginia Tech-Boston College Virginia Tech -5 (48.5) Virginia Tech 30-16 Favorite-Under

2006 Wake Forest-Georgia Tech Georgia Tech -3 (40.5) Wake Forest 9-6 Underdog-Under

2005 Virginia Tech-Florida State Virginia Tech -14 (44.5) Florida State 27-22 Underdog-Over

**StarDust Bum** · 12-06-2014, 01:36 AM

SEC Championship Preview

December 5, 2014

Matchup: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers
Venue: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA
Date: Saturday, December 6, 2014
Time/TV: 4:00 p.m. ET – CBS
Line: Oregon -14 ½, Over/Under 49

Missouri returns to Atlanta as the SEC East champ for the second time in its three seasons in the league. This time around, the Tigers will face Alabama and they're hoping for a better result compared to last year's 59-42 loss to Auburn at the Ga. Dome.

Oddsmakers don't see that happening, however.

As of Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (11-1 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. Gamblers can take the Tigers to win outright for a +500 return (risk $100 to win $450).

Since losing 34-0 at home to Georgia on Oct. 11, Missouri (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) has won six in a row and has hooked up its betting supporters at a 5-1 ATS clip. The Tigers clinched the SEC East last Friday by rallying in the fourth quarter to a capture a 21-14 win over Arkansas as two-point home underdogs.

Marcus Murphy scored on a 12-yard touchdown run with 4:38 remaining to provide the winning points. Murphy found paydirt but both scoring drives in the fourth quarter were about QB Maty Mauk and RB Russell Hansbrough, who finished with 91 rushing yards on 20 carries.

Mauk threw for 265 yards, including a four-yard TD pass to Jimmie Hunt and a three-yard scoring strike to Bud Sasser on the two-point conversion. The Tigers, who cut their deficit to eight when place-kicker Andrew Baggett nailed a 50-yard field goal on the final play of the first half, pulled even at 14-14 with the Mauk-to-Sasser conversion.

After a brutal slump in October, Mauk has regained his confidence. In the last five games, the sophomore signal caller has an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Alabama went into the Iron Bowl knowing it was destined for Atlanta thanks to Ole Miss's slight upset win over Mississippi St. earlier last Saturday. But there was still plenty on the line, including the hope of going to the first College Football Playoff.

Nick Saban's team raced out to a 14-3 lead and it looked as if this could be a laugher. However, Gus Malzahn's bunch wasn't about to fold. Auburn took its second lead when Nick Marshall found Sammie Coates for a 68-yard scoring strike to give it a 23-21 advantage. It was the second time Marshall had hooked up with Coates for a go-ahead score, doing so for a 16-14 advantage early in the second quarter.

The 68-yard TD pass came with 51 seconds remaining in the first half. Moments later, Auburn intercepted Blake Sims and had a golden opportunity to get more points before intermission. The Tigers did just that with a 20-yard field goal for a 26-21 halftime lead.

Marshall, who finished with 456 passing yards, threw his third TD to Quan Bray to put AU up 33-21 early in the third quarter. After 'Bama answered 39-yard TD pass from Sims to Amari Cooper, Auburn countered with another Daniel Carlson FG for a 36-27 advantage with 3:30 left in the third quarter.

But from there, it all Alabama. On the first play of the Tide's next drive, Sims hit Cooper for a 75-yard bomb. They would take the lead for good early in the four quarter on an 11-yard TD run by Sims, who threw for 312 yards and four TDs. Another fourth-quarter TD pass to DeAndrew White provided 'Bama with a 12-point cushion and Derrick Henry put the game on ice with a 25-yard scoring scamper.

Auburn got a garbage TD with 20 ticks left to make the final score, 55-44. The Tide took the cash as a 10.5-point home favorite and the 'over' was an easy winner.

Cooper cemented an invite the Heisman ceremony in New York City next weekend by torching Auburn with 13 receptions for 224 yards and three TDs. For the season, Cooper has 103 catches for 1,573 yards and 14 TDs. Sims has a 23/7 TD-INT ratio.

Alabama has been a double-digit 'chalk' nine times this year, limping to a 3-5-1 spread record.

Missouri has won outright in eight of its last nine games from the underdog role. In six such spots this year, the Tigers went 5-1 both SU and ATS.

The 'under' is 7-4-1 overall for Missouri, going 7-2-1 in its last 10 games. The Tigers' games have averaged a combined score of 48.2 points per game.

The 'under' is 6-5 overall for 'Bama, going 5-2 in its last seven games with a total. It has seen its games play to an average combined score of 53.6 PPG.

CBS will have the telecast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-06-2014, 01:37 AM

Big Ten Championship Preview

December 3, 2014

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Wisconsin -4, Total 53

The Big Ten Championship game takes place at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday with Ohio State representing the East and Wisconsin representing the West.

The dynamic of this matchup completely changed with the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. With Barrett under center, OSU would have likely been a 3-5 point favorite in this game.

Instead, Wisconsin heads into the weekend as a four-point favorite. The dynamic of the matchup may have changed, but the stakes are still just as high for the Buckeyes, who could potentially move into the CFB Playoff top four with a win over the Badgers.

OSU’s Barrett, a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, broke his ankle in last week’s win over Michigan. Only a handful of quarterbacks were having better campaigns than Barrett, who tallied 2,834 passing yards and 34 pass TD’s & 938 rush yards and 11 TD’s this season.

He’ll give way to third-string QB Cardale Jones, who has shown flashes of brilliance in limited playing time. Jones – a 6’5” 230 LB sophomore – has completed 11-of-19 passes for 121 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT in two years at OSU. He’s a proven running threat as well as he has tallied 334 rush yards on 43 attempts with 1 TD in his two-year career.

Still, most of those stats came in mop-up duty in OSU blowout wins, and it’ll be a completely different atmosphere in Indianapolis on Saturday. He’ll also be taking on a Wisconsin defense that ranks 2nd nationally in total YPG allowed, 2nd in pass YPG allowed, 8th in rush YPG allowed, and 4th in PPG allowed.

No opponent has topped 28 points against the Badgers this season (LSU & Illinois each scored 28 points) while six have been held to fewer than 20 points. The Bucks have scored fewer than 31 points just once this season and that was the 21-35 loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th.

Wisconsin has held opposing rushing attacks to just 103.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC with just three individuals exceeding 100 rush yards. The pass defense has been even better, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 46.4% completions with 10 TD and 6 INT.

They do a great job of getting after the quarterback (35 sacks) and stalling drives (13.3 first downs per game allowed – 1st in the B1G).

OSU’s defense has been tested already with some of the running backs & offensive lines that it has faced throughout B1G play. Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford, Minnesota’s David Cobb, and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman – three of the top RB’s in the nation – all had success against this Ohio State defense. Those three combined for 510 rush yards (170 rush YPG) on 7.1 YPC with 9 touchdowns.

The silver lining in that stat is that despite the success those three had on the ground, OSU won all three of those games by 11.3 PPG. Those previous struggles could be a significant issue with Melvin Gordon on deck this weekend. No opponent, aside from FCS Western Illinois, has had success slowing Gordon. He leads the nation with 2,260 rush yards on nearly 8.0 yards per carry with 29 total touchdowns. He seems to have gotten stronger as the season has progressed as he has tallied at least 200 rushing yards in three of the last four games.

Neither team has a huge situational edge here as Wisconsin has been to Indy twice (’11 & ’12) while Ohio State was here last year. Wisconsin is 2-0 SU, beating Michigan State in 2011 and Nebraska in 2012 while Ohio State lost the B1G Championship to Michigan State last year, 24-34.

OSU has won seven of the last 10 against Wisconsin, but is just 5-4-1 ATS in those games with just +3.4 the average margin (six of 10 games decided by seven points or fewer).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-06-2014, 11:08 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Saturday games
Conference championship games
Louisiana Tech won six of last seven games but also lost to a I-AA team in September; they beat Rice 76-31 last week, are on road for third time in last five weeks. Bulldogs are 4-0 as underdogs this year, winning two of four games SU. Marshall scored 66 points last week....and lost its first game of year; they're 3-2 as home favorites this year, with four wins by 19+ points. Herd lost this game LY 41-24 (-6.5) to Rice. These teams have met once, in 1942.

Alabama played Iron Bowl last week, hard to match that intensity week later vs Mizzou team they beat 42-10 two years ago, outgaining Tigers 533-129. Crimson Tide is 1-4 vs spread away from home, with wins by 10-1-14-7, with loss at Ole Miss. Missouri won last four games, despite being underdog in last three; Tigers are 5-1 as underdogs (8-1 overall in last nine games as a dog), 5-0 SU on road, but they also lost at home to Indiana. Mizzou lost 59-42 to Auburn LY in this game.

Winston is 26-0 as Florida State's QB; Seminoles won 13 of last 15 with Georgia Tech, but Jackets covered last four, with FSU winning 21-15 in last meeting (-14) in this game two years ago. Seminoles are 3-9 against spread this year, winning last three games by 5 or less points; they're 2-1 as single digit favorite this year. Tech won/covered its last five games, are 5-0 as an underdog this year; they've scored 47.3 ppg in last three games on road. FSU allowed 200+ rushing yards twice: BC and The Citadel.

Ohio State is down to #3 QB Jones after Barrett broke his ankle in win over Michigan last week; Buckeyes won six of last seven games against Wisconsin, with underdogs covering three of last four. Ohio State won last ten games since losing at home to Va Tech; they gave up 24+ points in last four games. Badgers won last seven games after 3-2 start- they are 2-1 in games with single digit spread, OSU is 2-0. Meyer covered his last 12 games he wasn't favored in. Wisconsin was down 17-3 in first half vs Minnesota last week, rallied to beat Gophers 34-24.

Boise State ran ball for 264 yards in 37-27 (-17) win over Fresno State in October; Broncos won 12 of last 14 series games, but lost 41-40 LY to Bulldogs, who beat Utah State in this game LY. Underdogs covered last two series games after favorites covered previous 12 in series. Fresno is only 6-6, 1-3 vs spread when a double digit underdog- they won three in row, scoring 38-40-28 points last three games. Boise is 4-2 as favorite at home, winning by 10-9 points in games they didn't cover.

Rest of schedule
-- Home side won last four UCF-East Carolina games, covering five of last six; Pirates covered once in last seven games, are 2-2 as home faves this season. UCF won last three games by a combined 100-14.
-- UConn is 2-9 this season, losing last three games by combined total of 117-31; they're 0-1 as a favorite. SMU hired a new coach this week; they are 0-11, 3-8 vs spread, losing last two by combined 88-16.
-- TCU scored 47.7 ppg in winning last six games since losing to Baylor 61-58; they're 4-1 when laying double digits this year. Cyclones allowed 30+ points in every game but one; they're 3-3-1 as double digit dogs.
-- Temple lost last three games, needs win to be bowl eligible; they lost last three games, scoring total of 32 points, but have won couple of road games. Tulane lost last two games, outscored 72-13.

-- Underdogs covered five of last seven Houston- Cincinnati games, with Bearcats winning last four, by 7-33-1-17 points. Cougars won five of last six games, are 2-0 as dogs. Bearcats won/covered last six games.
-- Underdogs covered six of last seven Kansas State-Baylor games, with Bears winning last three here, by 28-5-14 points. Bears won last four games, scoring 51.3 ppg; K-State covered three of four as an underdog.
-- Oklahoma State lost its last five visits to Norman, with four losses by 27+ points; Cowboys lost last five games overall, covered one of last six. Sooners lost two of last three at home, covered two of last seven overall.

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