Announcement

**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 07:22 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Books careful with Lions-Patriots in Week 12

Week 12 of the NFL season pits the top team in the AFC against one of the better teams in the NFC, with the New England Patriots playing host to the Detroit Lions.

New England (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is on a tear, winning six in a row SU while cashing in five of those contests. On Sunday night, the Patriots went into Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs and emerged with a 42-20 beatdown victory. Of the six wins during their current run, five have been by at least 15 points.

Meanwhile, Detroit (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) couldn’t get its offense on track at Arizona, losing 14-6 as a 1-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU win streak and a 6-1 SU surge.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said he and his staff were hesitant to quickly release the point spread for this game Monday morning, eventually putting New England up as a 7-point favorite in the afternoon.

“When the Pats are running this hot, we’re going to have a lot of one-sided action on their games,” Lester said before opening the spread at a touchdown. “I’d like to open this at the key number or higher, but I’m getting a little resistance from the room, so we will see where the dust settles. The Lions are a little bit of fool’s gold, but I do like what they’ve been able to accomplish defensively. Jim Caldwell is no stranger to game-planning for New England either.”

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Red-hot Arizona has a chance to put a stranglehold on the NFC West. The Cardinals (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) have won six in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 14-6 home victory as a 1-point pup against a solid Detroit Lions squad.

Seattle (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) is in a tight spot, needing to pile up wins if it hopes for a return playoff trip and a chance to defend its Super Bowl title. The Seahawks fell short at Kansas City 24-20 laying one point Sunday.

“I never would’ve thought going into this season that the Cardinals could lose this game and still be well in control of first place in the NFC West,” Lester said. “Let’s not forget that they came to Seattle last year and won. We know that the Seahawks are struggling to find their identity, and I think Arizona can keep it close in a low-scoring affair.”

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-8)

After bouncing from New England to Oakland to St. Louis, the Broncos (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) finally return home, but in worse shape than when they left. Denver was the top team in the AFC a month ago, then went 1-2 SU and ATS the past three weeks, including Sunday’s stunning 22-7 loss at St. Louis as an 8-point favorite – with the Broncos suffering key injuries (Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders).

Miami (6-4 SU and ATS) enters with a little extra rest and in the thick of the AFC playoff chase, after a 22-9 victory over Buffalo as 4-point home chalk Thursday night. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five outings.

“We probably should have opened this at a touchdown because sharps gobbled up the -8 quickly,” Lester said. “As is the case almost every week, squares will be lining up to tease down Denver, and they’ll be eager to try and get some back after last Sunday’s upset. I’m still in the camp that doesn’t completely trust (Dolphins quarterback) Ryan Tannehill to not make the big mistake.”

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Both these teams need to start racking up wins, with Baltimore in the middle of a tight AFC North race and New Orleans leading a pack of the pathetic in the NFC South, where every team has a losing record.

The Saints, (4-6 SU and ATS), 8.5-point home chalk against Cincinnati, were dealt a stunning 27-10 loss Sunday. The Ravens (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 21-7 win over Tennessee laying 10.5 points at home.

This game wraps up Week 12, under the Monday night spotlight.

“I haven’t been sold on Baltimore from the get-go, and I’m still not,” Lester said. “Despite New Orleans’ struggles, I wanted to make this number a point higher. When the bright lights of prime time come on, the Saints always seem to show up. I expect the total to elevate; we can’t set these nationally-televised games high enough.”

**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 07:23 AM

NFL line watch: Wait until closer to kickoff before backing Bills

Spread to bet now

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

Die hard football Giants fans are dreaming of yet another November-December run to the playoffs. They look at a schedule that after this game includes four straight against teams with losing records and wonder if Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have any magic beans left in their pockets. That's unlikely, and the Cowboys will probably deliver the wooden stake in the Giants' hearts this Sunday in East Rutherford. The ‘Boys, who are the only undefeated (4-0) team on the road this season, opened at -3 and the public has been jumping on them in early betting. It’s doubtful that the sharps will come in late on this one even if the number moves to 3.5. Dallas needs this one to keep pace with Philadelphia in the NFC East.

Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)

The Jets are long gone and out of things, but they haven’t packed it in as evidenced by their unlikely win over the white-hot Steelers a week ago. New York forced four turnovers in that game, and has had a week off to get ready for the 5-5 Bills. The extra half-point in this one makes it a hard swallow for backers on the Bills. Buffalo crushed the Jets in late October, but the Bills haven’t won since then, losing twice (KC, Miami) in five days. It’s in the Jets’ interest to turn this one into a taffy pull, so the fraction of a point could be very important. Hang on to see if the number changes before pulling the trigger.

Total to watch

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (50)

Think Peyton Manning will want to fire the ball all over Mile High after being on the road for the last month, getting stuffed by a mediocre St. Louis team and taking two losses in the last three games? And if all that’s not bad enough, say hello to the Chiefs, who have tied the Broncos in the AFC West at 7-3 and get Denver at home on Nov. 30. Denver’s defense has been exposed over the last three weeks, and the Dolphins themselves aren’t half bad when they have the ball. Looks like a lot of points on the way here as the last thing Denver wants to do is grind it out and give Miami a chance to make it a fourth quarter game.

**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 07:25 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 12 upon us.......

-- Washington is 3-8 in its last eleven games as a road underdog.

-- Tennessee covered twice in its last eight road games.

-- Raiders covered three of last 14 tries as a home underdog.

-- Patriots covered 10 of last 13 non-divisional home games.

-- Jaguars are 5-10 last 15 times they were underdog of 7+ points.

-- Cowboys are 17-6 in game following their last 23 byes.

**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 07:26 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 20

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KANSAS CITY (7 - 3) at OAKLAND (0 - 10) - 11/20/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
OAKLAND is 116-150 ATS (-49.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 23

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CLEVELAND (6 - 4) at ATLANTA (4 - 6) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 8) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 3) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (7 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (8 - 2) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 102-72 ATS (+22.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-45 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (7 - 3) at MINNESOTA (4 - 6) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (6 - 3 - 1) at HOUSTON (5 - 5) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 8) at BUFFALO (5 - 5) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY JETS are 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 8) at CHICAGO (4 - 6) - 11/23/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (9 - 1) at SEATTLE (6 - 4) - 11/23/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (4 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (6 - 4) - 11/23/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 140-177 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 140-177 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 71-99 ATS (-37.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (6 - 4) at DENVER (7 - 3) - 11/23/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
MIAMI is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 4) - 11/23/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (7 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 7) - 11/23/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 30-58 ATS (-33.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 29-53 ATS (-29.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 24

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BALTIMORE (6 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) - 11/24/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 07:27 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, Nov. 20

Kansas City at Oakland, 8:25 ET
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Oakland: 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Sunday, Nov. 23

Cleveland at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 23-9 UNDER in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
Atlanta: 2-16 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Tennessee at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 7-18 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Philadelphia: 19-7 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

Detroit at New England, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 2-10 ATS in road games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game
New England: 13-4 ATS off 5 or more consecutive overs

Green Bay at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 17-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Minnesota: 18-6 OVER after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 13-4 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Indianapolis: 31-54 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Cincinnati at Houston, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Houston: 2-10 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 36-20 UNDER in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 11-1 ATS off a road loss

Tampa Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 13-4 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
Chicago: 5-13 ATS against conference opponents

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 7-0 ATS against conference opponents
Seattle: 18-7 OVER after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game

St Louis at San Diego, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 8-1 OVER off a non-conference game
San Diego: 55-34 OVER in non-conference games

Miami at Denver, 4:25 ET
Miami: 66-40 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Denver: 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Washington at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Washington: 27-50 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
Dallas: 12-3 ATS in road games after a bye week
NY Giants: 21-8 OVER in home games after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

Monday, Nov. 24

Baltimore at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 60-40 UNDER off a home win
New Orleans: 0-8 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite

**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 07:27 AM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 20

8:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Sunday, November 23

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Jacksonville is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games
Jacksonville is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW ENGLAND
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Houston
Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Tennessee is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Tennessee is 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games at home

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Arizona

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing San Diego
St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
San Diego is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Washington is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing San Francisco
Washington is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
San Francisco is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Washington

4:25 PM
MIAMI vs. DENVER
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Denver is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games

8:30 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

Monday, November 24

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 07:32 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday
Raiders (0-10) @ Chiefs (7-3)-- Over last 11 years, Oakland is 5-16 as home underdog in divisional games (1-1 this year). KC swept series 34-7/56-31 LY in Reid's first year in KC, after Oakland had won eight of previous 11 series games. Chiefs won nine of last 11 visits to Oakland. Winless Raiders are 5-5 vs spread, 1-3 as home dogs, losing by 16-3-11-24 points in the Coliseum. Chiefs covered their last nine games, winning last five; three of the five were by 4 or less points; they're 6-0 as road favorites under Reid, but this game is long travel on short week, dicey spot for KC. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-12 vs spread. Five of last six Chief games stayed under the total.

NFL

Week 12

Chance of rain as Raiders host Chiefs Thursday

The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Oakland Raiders in an old fashioned AFC West meeting Thursday night, but rain could also make an appearance in the Bay Area.

Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of rain by game time, which will drop to around a 30 percent chance as the game wears on. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s and wind will blow across the field at around 5 mph.

As of Wednesday evening, the Chiefs were 7.5-point road favorites with a total of 42.5.

NFL

Thursday, November 20

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Thursday Night Football: Chiefs at Raiders
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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+7.5, 42.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have quietly emerged as a legitimate contender in the AFC, but a loss Thursday night would undo a lot of their current momentum. Winners of five straight games to surge into a first-place tie in the AFC West, the Chiefs hope to keep their hot run going when they visit the Oakland Raiders, who have not won in more than a year. The Raiders are the NFL's only winless team and have dropped 16 straight contests dating back to Nov. 17, 2013, against Houston.

“We’re not giving up. There’s no quit in this team, and that counts for something," said Oakland center Stefen Wisniewski, via the San Francisco Chronicle. "We’re going to keep fighting until the end. I do think that we have a high-character team - a lot of good pros that are going to keep working and keep fighting no matter what the record is.” The Raiders set a season low for points in last week's 13-6 loss at San Diego, one week after setting a season high for points allowed in a 41-7 setback versus Denver. Kansas City's season, of course, is heading in the other direction as the team has not lost since its bye week and made a nice statement with a 24-20 win over Seattle last weekend.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs as 6-point road faves and that has climbed to 7.5. The total opened 43.5 and has dropped one point.

INJURY REPORT: Chiefs - TE Travis Kelce (probable, shoulder), LB Tamba Hali (probable, knee), TE Anthony Fasano (questionable, knee), S Jamell Fleming (questionable, hamstring), WR Donnie Avery (out, groin). Raiders - Derek Carr (probable, quad), CB Carlos Rogers (questionable, knee), G Gabe Jackson (questionable, knee), CB Travis Carrie (questionable, ankle).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-50s with a 50 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-6.0) + Raiders (+6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -9.25

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Alex Smith's history against Oakland is virtually spotless with a 4-0 record and a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those games. Jamaal Charles is coming off a terrific performance against Seattle - 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns - and was even better the last time he faced the Raiders, as he became the first player in NFL history to catch four TD passes and run for a score in a single game. One of the keys to Kansas City's success has been stopping the pass, as no team in the NFL has given up fewer yards through the air this season than the Chiefs' average mark of 201.8 yards.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (0-10 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Oakland is starting a rookie quarterback in Derek Carr, but the bigger issue at the moment is a rushing attack that ranks last in the NFL at 63 yards per game. Latavius Murray, a sixth-round pick in 2013, gave the Raiders' rushing attack a spark last week with 43 yards on four carries and could see more playing time Thursday, particularly with Darren McFadden running 28 times for 55 yards over his last three outings. One bright spot for Oakland has been the play of 38-year-old Charles Woodson, who made 14 tackles - 11 solo - against San Diego and leads the team with 74 tackles and two interceptions

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oakland.
* Underdog is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Raiders last eight games in November.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 67 percent of bettors are on the Chiefs.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2014, 08:26 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Kansas City at Oakland
The Chiefs head to Oakland tonight where they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Raiders. Kansas City is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Chiefs favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-7). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20

Game 109-110: Kansas City at Oakland (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 139.409; Oakland 124.976
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 14 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-7); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Game 251-252: Cleveland at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.287; Atlanta 128.608
Dunkel Line: Even; 50
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3 1/2); Over

Game 253-254: Tennessee at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.459; Philadelphia 133.890
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 11; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+11); Over

Game 255-256: Detroit at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 133.189; New England 149.924
Dunkel Line: New England by 16 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under

Game 257-258: Green Bay at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 138.462; Minnesota 130.838
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+10); Under

Game 259-260: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.401; Indianapolis 148.428
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 23; 55
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 13 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-13 1/2); Over

Game 261-262: Cincinnati at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.433; Houston 137.383
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 1; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1); Over

Game 263-264: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.003; Buffalo 131.204
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+4 1/2); Under

Game 265-266: Tampa Bay at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 122.261; Chicago 129.774
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5 1/2); Over

Game 267-268: Arizona at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.925; Seattle 138.173
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+6 1/2); Under

Game 269-270: St. Louis at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 131.897; San Diego 133.311
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+5); Under

Game 271-272: Miami at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.993; Denver 143.439
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Under

Game 273-274: Washington at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.893; San Francisco 132.987
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9); Under

Game 275-276: Dallas at NY Giants (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 133.219; NY Giants 127.252
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24

Game 277-278: Baltimore at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.492; New Orleans 131.940
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 11-21-2014, 07:21 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 12

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+10, 48.5)

Packers’ soft run defense vs. Vikings’ run-heavy game plan

The Vikings’ best shot at knocking off the Packers is to keep Aaron Rodgers and the offense off the field. And to do that, Minnesota needs to effectively run the ball and chew up the clock. The game plan is that simple. The Vikes loaded up on running backs for this NFC North showdown, adding former Cleveland RB Ben Tate to a backfield featuring Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata. Apparently, three so-so rushers equals one Adrian Peterson – well, not quite.

Minnesota is 12th in the NFL in yards per game, which is more impressive than it looks. This team has been playing from behind most Sundays, forced to abandon the ground game. The Vikings pick up 4.6 yards per carry – fourth best in the league – but have run the ball on only 35.71 percent of their snaps the last three games.

Green Bay’s powerful offense has actually protected its weak run game. With Rodgers & Co. hanging huge numbers on the scoreboard, foes are falling behind fast and have no choice but to pass. The Packers stop unit has given up 4.5 yards per carry – 5.1 ypc away from home. Sprinkle some snow and ice on the field at TCF Bank Stadium – which favors the ball carrier - and the Packers tacklers could have a tough time slowing down the three-headed horned purple monster.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13.5, 50.5)

Jaguars’ TE Marcedes Lewis vs. Colts’ tight end troubles

The Jaguars don’t have many weapons, especially with WRs Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts nursing ailments, but the return of tight end Marcedes Lewis is a sight for sore eyes for those faithful in North Florida. Lewis was lost to an ankle injury in Week 2 but not before reeling in eight catches for 106 yards and a touchdown.

His absence has hurt the progression of rookie QB Blake Bortles, who has yet to play with the 6-foot-6 hulking safety blanket. Having a reliable tight end is the best thing for a young passer and Bortles will likely be buying Lewis a nice steak dinner Sunday night. The TE missed the first meeting with Indianapolis in Week 3 but totaled 70 yards on three catches in his last game against the Colts.

Indianapolis has been roughed up by tight ends in recent games. The Colts gave up 71 yards on four catches and a touchdown to Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski last Sunday night, allowed Giants TE Larry Donnell to reel in four passes for 25 yards and a score the week prior, and was trucked by Steelers TE Heath Miller for 112 yards and a touchdown on seven grabs.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 41.5)

Cardinals’ big bag of blitz vs. Seahawks’ penalty issues

The Cardinals are taking a page from the Seahawks playbook this season, using their aggressive blitz-happy defense to put the fear in opposing team – even before they step on the field. Arizona blitzes around 40 percent of the time, which makes opponents very jumpy.

On the season, the Cardinals have benefited from 119 penalties against their opponents – second most in the NFL – totaling 960 negative yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Seahawks side that has been flagged for the fourth most penalties in the league, drawing 81 infractions for 599 yards against. Seventeen of those whistles have come on false starts – third most in the league. In their two meetings last season, Seattle was hit with 19 penalties for 177 total yards lost.

Arizona’s speed is the real issue. The Cardinals' rush puts pass protection on its heels and forces the quarterback to move around in the pocket. Seattle QB Russell Wilson can make plays with his legs –rushing for 571 yards (a lot more than the team would like) – but Arizona will be quick to snuff out those scrambles. The Cardinals drop into man coverage on those blitz packages, something Wilson has struggled to beat with a lack of talent at receiver. Expect the Seahawks blockers to bend, break and bust the rules in order to keep their QB upright Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3, 47.5)

Cowboys’ poor tackling vs. Giants’ improving receiving corps

Dallas ended a two-game losing skid with a win over Jacksonville in London, England before enjoying a bye last week. Like most wins over the Jaguars, football bettors should discard them from the equation. The Cowboys’ losses to Washington and Arizona, however, were exhibitions in poor tackling that should concern Big D backers.

In both games, Dallas blanked on opportunities to get its opponents off the field on third down, instead missing a key hit and allowing the ball carrier to pick up the first down and then some. The Cowboys defense watched the Redskins and Cardinals go a combined 15 for 29 on third down – a success rate of almost 52 percent. All four of Arizona’s touchdowns in that 28-17 loss came on third down.

The Giants’ new West Coast offense isn’t striking fear into the hearts of defenses, sputtering for only 14.4 points over New York’s last five games. However, Eli Manning is beginning to gel with his receiving corps – if you forgive the five interceptions last week. Receivers Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham and TE Larry Donnell are stepping up and if the Cowboys miss their first shot after the catch, these guys are gone.

**Udog** · 11-22-2014, 09:22 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Browns (6-4) @ Falcons (4-6)-- Atlanta is 4-0 within its division. 0-6 outside it, so not hard to figure how that factors in here; AFC North teams are 8-1-1 vs NFC South teams this year, part of why 4-6 Falcons are in first place. Underdogs covered all four Browns' road games; Cleveland is 2-2 SU on foriegn soil. Falcons are 2-0 since bye after blowing 21-0 lead in London to Lions in game before their bye; Atlanta is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; they're +7 (10-3) in turnovers in last four games. Smith is 15-11 vs spread vs AFC teams, 0-2 this year. Teams split last four series games; this is Browns' first visit to Atlanta since '06. Last six Cleveland games, last five Atlanta games stayed under total.

Titans (2-8) @ Eagles (7-3)-- Travel on short week for Titan squad that lost four games in row; four of their last six games were decided by three or less points. Titans are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 26-24-2-14 points- they're 0-3 with Mettenberger at QB, but he averaged 11 yards/attempt vs Steelers Monday; he has potential. Eagles got bamboozled at Lambeau; they're 3-2 as home favorites, winning all five games by 17-3-6-27-24 points. Titans won last four series games after losing previous six; this is their first visit to Philly since '06. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5; AFC South underdogs are 7-9. Last three Philly games, 5 of last 7 Titan games went over.

Lions (7-3) @ Patriots (8-2)-- Pats won last six games (5-1 vs spread); they're 2-2 as a home favorite, winning by 7-26-2-28 points; they crushed Indy last week, scored 45.3 ppg in last three games, as healthy Gronkowski opened up whole offense. In their last 31 drives, Pats have 15 TDs, six FGAs, only four 3/outs. Detroit won four of last five games, holding six of last eight foes to 17 or less points. Lions are 3-2 on road, 0-2 as an underdog, scoring 7-6 points in those two games. NE won last three series games, by 8-7-21 points. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 2-6; NFC North road dogs are 5-7. Last nine Lion games stayed under total; last seven Patriot games went over. Lions are 1-2 on grass, 6-1 on carpet (lost 17-14 at home to Bills).

Packers (7-3) @ Vikings (4-6)-- Pack won six of last seven games, scoring 55-53 points in two post-bye games (10 TDs, five FGA/21 drives), but they're only 2-3 away from home, winning 27-24 (-3) at Miami, 38-17 (-2.5) in Chicago. Green Bay (-9.5) won first meeting 42-10 at Lambeau; they're 9-1-1 in last 11 series games, winning three of four in Twin Cities, but they were all in dome- this is outdoors. Favorites are 7-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Vikings are 4-0 when they score 19+ points, 0-6 when they score less; they're 2-2 at home, losing by 23-14. Pack are 13-5 in last 18 games as a divisional road favorite. Nine of ten Packer games went over; four of last five Viking games stayed under.

Jaguars (1-9) @ Colts (7-3)-- Indy won 44-17/40-24 in games following first two losses this season; they're now 13-0-1 vs spread under Pagano/Arians in game following their last 14 regular season losses. Jaguars won two of last three visits here, since '08, they're 12-17 as divisional road dog. Jax lost last three games by 14-10-14 points, outscored in first half 46-13; they're 1-3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-31-19-2-10 points. Colts allowed 39 ppg in last three games, getting smoked by Pitt/Pats; they are 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 24-7-27, with losses to Eagles/Pats. Favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Seven of last nine Indy games went over total.

Bengals (6-3-1) @ Texans (5-5)-- First grass game this season for Cincy; they're 11-5-1 in last 17 grass games, 5-1-1 in last seven as non-divisional road dog. Houston won last five series games, with three by 11+ points, last two of which were in playoffs. Bengals lost last three visits here, by 29-21-6 points. Bengals are 0-3 when they score 17 or less points, 6-0-1 if they score more; Texans allowed 33-31 points in losing two two home games, to Colts/Eagles, Houston is 4-1 as favorite this year; favorites covered all four of their home games. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-2 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 4-5 vs spread. Four of last five Houston games went over the total.

Jets (2-8) @ Bills (5-5)-- Weather biggest story this week; college game Wednesday was postponed due to huge snowfall in western NY. Bills won four of last five series games, winning 43-23 (+3) in Swamp four weeks ago; Jets turned ball over six times (-6) in that game. Jets lost 28-9/37-14 in last two visits here; they're 1-4 in last five post-bye games losing 28-7/37-14 in last two. Gang Green is 2-2 as road dog, losing away games by 7-2-31-14 points. Bills are 1-2 as favorites this year, 6-9 in last 15 when favored; they lost 17-13/22-9 in two post-bye games, scoring no TDs/four FGs on last six drives in red zone. Eight of ten Buffalo games stayed under total. How much has weather desrupted the Bills' preparation this week?

Buccaneers (2-8) @ Bears (4-6)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 as Bears' coach ('04-'12), got canned because he was 1-1 in playoff games his last six years (53-45 overall); now he is back in Chicago with 2-8 Bucs, who covered last four road games since 56-14 loss back in Week 3 Thursday night game in Atlanta. Bears won three of last four games vs Bucs, with all four decided by 6 or less points; they're 12-14 under Trestman, 4-6 this year. Chicago lost five of last seven games overall, is 1-3 at home; they snapped 3-game skid by beating Vikings last week. Chicago had been outscored 92-7 in first half during three-game skid. NFC South non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread. Last four Tampa Bay games stayed under total.

Cardinals (9-1) @ Seahawks (6-4)—This is like Miss State getting nine points last week; Arizona won/covered last six games, backup QB Stanton is as good as injured starter Palmer, but lack of national respect has spread this high. Cardinals won in Seattle in Week 16 LY, after losing there 58-0 the year before; they’re 9-4 as an underdog under Arians, 3-1 this year, with only loss 41-20 at Denver when 3rd-string QB Thomas wound up playing for while (1-8 passing, with 80-yard TD only completion). Seattle is 17-10-1 vs spread after a loss under Carroll, 1-2 this year; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 20-6-6-21 points and a loss to Dallas. Seahawks covered once in their last six games. Five of last six Seattle games went over; four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.

Rams (4-6) @ Chargers (6-4)—Rumors persist that Rivers (ribs?) is hurting; in their last four games, San Diego averaged less than 6.0 ypa in every game, after being at 8.5+ in games 3-6, and 6.6/7.3 in first two games. Part of problem is their OL is a mess; they had problems protecting Rivers vs Oakland last week. St Louis pass rush has perked up; they’ve got 18 sacks in last five games, after having one in first five. You hold Broncos to 7 points, you’re playing good defense. St Louis is 3-2 as road underdog this year, 12-9 under Fisher, but offense has only five TDs on last 46 drives- their only TD “drive” last week was one play, 63-yard strike to Britt early in game. Bolts are 0-5 vs spread in last five games; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, 4-3 under McCoy. Three of last four games for both sides stayed under total.

Dolphins (6-4) @ Broncos (7-3)—This game would’ve been lot more fun had Broncos signed former Dolphin bully Incognito couple weeks ago. Denver is 7-1 vs spread in game following bye with Manning as QB; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 7-7-21-25-14 points. Miami won/covered four of last five games; they had three extra days to prep after Thursday night win last week. Dolphins are 2-2 as road dog this year; they haven’t lost by more than four points since Week 3 at home to Chiefs. Fish are 8-3 in last 11 series games, but teams haven’t met in Manning era; Miami’s last visit here was in ’08. Sunday forecast is 43 and sunny; not south Florida, but tolerable. Six of last seven Denver games went over; last five Miami games stayed under.

Redskins (3-7) @ 49ers (6-4)—RGIII criticized him teammates after home loss to Bucs Sunday; Gruden criticized RGII for doing that but apologized the next day, business as usual for dysfunctional Redskins, who are 0-3 in Griffin starts this year, scoring 13 ppg. Skins are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 11-3-10-3 points, with OT win at Dallas. 49ers are 0-3-1 as home favorites this year (15-9-2 under Harbaugh), splitting four games SU, with both wins by five points. Niners won last three series games, by 3-8-21 points; Redskins split last four visits here, with last trip in ’08. NFC non-divisional home favorites are 5-6 vs spread this season; NFC East road underdogs are 3-6. Seven of ten 49er games, three of last four Redskin games stayed under the total.

Cowboys (7-3) @ Giants (3-7)—Not sure how much Romo’s back healed in two weeks; he was 21-28/248 in win over Jaguars in London two weeks ago. Dallas lost three of last four post-bye games, but win was here LY; this is Cowboys’ first true road game since win in Seattle six weeks ago. Pokes are 3-0 in true road games, scoring 30 ppg; they were dogs in two of the three. Big Blue lost last five games (0-5 vs spread), scoring three TDs on 23 drives in last two games. Dallas (-6) won first meeting 31-21 in Week 7; game was 14-all at half. Romo averaged 10.7 ypa in Cowboys’ 4th win in last five series games. Pokes won three of last four visits to Swamp. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-12 vs spread. Three of last four Giant games, last three Dallas road games went over total.

Ravens (6-4) @ Saints (4-6)— Captain Obvious reports the Saints miss Darren Sproles; they averaged 5.9/6.2 ypa in last two games, their 2nd/3rd worst showings of year. Saints lost last two home games, are now 1-6 when allowing 24+ points, 3-0 when they allow less. NO allowed 144/186 rushing yards in last two games. Baltimore won Super Bowl in last visit here; they’ve won four of last five post-bye games, are 2-3 on road this year, winning at Browns (23-21), Bucs (48-17). AFC North teams are 8-1-1 vs NFC South teams this year. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 6-2. Bye week should help Raven offense that converted only 7 of 26 third down plays in last two games. Good stat on Baltimore; they’ve scored 10+ points in second half of every game this year.

**Udog** · 11-22-2014, 09:25 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 23

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Giants
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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 47.5)

The bye week came at a perfect time for the Dallas Cowboys, not only giving quarterback Tony Romo a chance to heal his injured back but allowing the team to reclaim a share of first place in the NFC East. Dallas will play its first true road game in six weeks when it visits the skidding New York Giants on Sunday night in the second matchup this season between the division rivals. The Cowboys, who beat Jacksonville 31-17 in London prior to the bye, have won three straight matchups against New York.

The Giants have dropped five in a row, sit four games off the pace in the NFC East and do not own a victory over a team currently with a winning record, but they are holding out hope of making a playoff run. "This is a good team," running back Rashad Jennings said. "When we're losing, we see it's a couple things here, a couple things there, and we're like, 'Come on guys.’ Button up. Let's just button up this shirt, tighten a few things up, and we'll be all right." New York lost at Dallas 31-21 on Oct. 19.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as the Giants +3, but jumped to +3.5 on Thursday where it remains. The opening total has jumped from 47 to 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Cowboys - LB Ronaldo McClain (Ques-Knee), DE Tyrone Crawford (Ques-Knee) Giants - T Justin Pugh (Ques-Quad), LB Jacquian WIlliams (Ques-Concussion), DT Cullen Jenkins (Ques-Calf), T James Brewer (Ques-Back)

WEATHER FORECAST: A mix of sun and clouds are expected for game time in East Rutherford. Winds are going to be blowing around 6 mph with temperatures around 51°F.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U): Romo returned from missing one game due to two small fractures in his back to throw for 246 yards and three touchdowns overseas as Dallas snapped a two-game losing streak. DeMarco Murray leads the league with 1,233 yards and has gone over 100 yards nine times, including a 28-carry, 128-yard performance in last month's victory over the Giants. Wide receiver Dez Bryant torched New York for nine catches and 151 yards, which represented his season high until he had six catches for 158 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Jaguars. Romo has thrown nine scoring passes versus one interception over his last four starts and finished with 279 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier meeting between the teams.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 O/U): After throwing a league-worst 27 interceptions last season, Eli Manning had done a much better job of protecting the ball until last week's disastrous performance, when he was picked off five times in a 16-10 home loss to San Francisco. Jennings returned from a four-game absence to rush for 59 yards on 18 carries and expects to take on a larger role in what is a must-win scenario for New York. Rookie first-round draft pick Odell Beckham Jr. had four catches for 34 yards and a pair of TDs against Dallas and followed that up with 21 receptions for 357 yards in the past three contests. The Giants rank dead last in the league against the run (145.0), an ominous sign when going up against Murray.

TRENDS:

*Giants are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
*Under is 17-8 in Giants last 25 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

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**Udog** · 11-22-2014, 09:27 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 23

Falcons, Browns lights out on the Under

The Cleveland Browns and the Atlanta Falcons - two of the NFL's hottest Under plays - will meet Sunday in Georgia.

Both squads have gone a perfect 6-0 on the Under in their previous six contests. Oddsmakers presently list the Falcons as 3-point home faves for the matchup.

The total for the game is sitting at 47.

Rain on tap as Seahawks host Cardinals

If you're capping the NFC West clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, expect some typical November weather at CenturyLink Field for the game.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s and a 100 percent probability of rain during gametime. Wind could also play a factor as it looks like it could be blowing across the field around 12 mph.

Having covered six-straight spread and owning an 8-2 ATS record on the season, the Cardinals are one of the hottest bets around. They are presently 7.5-point road dogs for the game.

**Udog** · 11-23-2014, 07:49 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 23

Rain expected at Soldier Field Sunday

Expect some rain and some wind at Soldier Field as the Chicago Bears host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon.

As of Saturday evening, forecasts were predicting temperatures in the low-50s for this matchup as well as a 100 percent chance of rain before and during gametime. Furthermore, wind is expected to blow toward the north endzone at around 13 mph during the game.

After opening as 6-point home faves at most shops, the Bears are currently 5.5-point favorites while the total is 46 for a game which looks like it could be played in sloppy conditions.

High-flying Packers continue to soar over totals

The Green Bay Packers' high-flying offense has had no issue soaring over totals this season.

The Over/Under has gone 9-1 in Packers games this season, which is good enough to make them the top Over play in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers' squad face off against arch rival Minnesota in the Gopher State Sunday.

The total for the contest is currently 48.5.

Eagles seek to stay perfect at home vs. Titans

The friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field have kept the Philadephia Eagles perfect at home this season.

The Eagles are 5-0 straight up at home so far during the campaign, and will host the Tennessee Titans (2-8 SU) Sunday.

Tennessee is faced with the tough task of handing Philly their first loss on home ground, and as a result, find themselves as 11-point road dogs for the occasion.

**Udog** · 11-23-2014, 07:52 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Vikings, +9.5-- Similar scenario to Pitt-Jets in Week 10?

5) Ravens, +3.5-- New Orleans lost its last two home games.

4) Jets, +4.5-- Bad spread posted before game moved to Detroit.

3) Patriots, -7-- Gray ran for 199 yds last week; overslept practice Thursday.

2) Cowboys, -3.5-- Dallas won first meeting 31-21 at home.

1) Seahawks, -6.5-- Giving 9-1 Arizona 6.5 points? Interesting.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 36-30

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 20 - Monday, November 24)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 20 - Monday, November 24)

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