NFL week 11

[roccodean]

1*. Arizona/Det under 41.5

when first half lines come out will also have under. 2* if price right

[jcindaville]

Bol Rock

[roccodean]

2* mi/Buf 1st half under 21

[roccodean]

2* mi/Buf 1st half under 21

My algorithm has this total at 40.5, so when line was 42.5 it was a play (smart money has since moved to 41). *Based on efficiency, Miami has the 3rd best defense and Buffalo has the 4th. *Both teams struggle to pass the ball (26th and 13th) and this will be even more difficult vs pass defenses that are 3rd (Buf) and 1st (Mia) in defensive pass effic. *Hence, they will be forced to run more (ood for unders), but both run defenses are solid and the Bills run offense is 27th in effic. *The Bills have one of the best defensive lines in the league (lead NFL in sacks) and the Phins have lost their best offensive lineman (Albert). *The Phins struggled last week vs. another great defensive line (Detroit). *I cannot see this going over the total.

[moondog22]

good luck rocco

[roccodean]

The reason I have been wagering on first half unders is they seem to be more predictable when my algorithm recommends an under. My theory is, no second half adjustments and at end of half teams aren't trying to score as often as end of games, and less garbage time.

[jcindaville]

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[jcindaville]

Nice job!!!!

[roccodean]

Thanks
Doesn't get much easier than that

[roccodean]

2* Detroit/Arizona under 41.5
My numbers have Detroit as the best def in the league and Arizona as the fifth best defense. Based on efficiency: Det is 1st vs the run and 2nd vs the pass and Arizona is 4th vs the run and 5th vs the pass. My calculated total via my algorithm is 33! This play has very little to do with Stanton's quality as a QB, but I do think they will play more conservative and the Zona D will step it up because their backup is in. As far as red zone TD percent offensively, Detroit is 20th and Arizona is 23rd. Detroit's redzone TD percent defense is 5th in the league (48% allowance rate) and Zona is middle of the pack at 15th. Under time!!!

2* Detroit/Arizona 1st half under
Play at 20.5 or more

1* Seattle/KC under 21 1st half
My algorithm has this number at 41 (so it was a play at 43+). KC's strength is their run attack (5th in effic), but Seattle's run D is 3rd in efficency. On the other side of the ball, Seattle will be able to run against KC's D that is 21st in efficiency (Seattle has the best run offense in the league). Both pass offenses are simply average: Seattle is 22nd and KC 12th. Their pass defenses are also average at 14th and 15th. I think Seattle is going to get back to the basics and pound the rock and play hard nose D...under.

1* Tease: Detroit +7.5/Seattle +8
Detroit:
You can refer to the stats above. In a low scoring game, points are at a premium hence the tease to over 7 points here. Arizona has been extremely lucky and are +12 in turnovers, including +11 in the 4th quarter...I don't see this trend continuing. The Cards are actually -0.4 yards/play (24th in the leaugue) ! Compare this to Detroit that is +0.5 yards/play (6th in league). I actually think the Lions win this game outright, but I wanted another side to tease the Seahawks with and getting over a TD is a gift here.

Seattle:
Refer to stats above. KC has won and covered 4 straight...I think that stops here. Again, in a low scoring game points are at a premium. The Seahawks are +0.9 YPP (2nd in league) and the Chiefs are even at YPP (15th). Seattle will be pounding the ball and keep this game close throughout and cover the big spread.

1* TB/Wash Over
Play at 46 or better
My algorithm has this set at 49. Tampa's pass effic D is 21st and Washington's is 26th...think this is going to be a shootout.