NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Tuesday, November 11 - Saturday, November 15)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, November 14

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Game of the Day: Tulsa at UCF
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Central Florida Knights (-20.5, 55)

UCF has had plenty of time to ****** its first conference loss and recharge for a run at another possible league crown. That push begins again at home Friday when the Golden Knights renew acquaintances with former Conference USA rival Tulsa, which snapped a seven-game losing streak last weekend. UCF, which went 8-0 to win the American Athletic title last year, had won five straight overall and its first three AAC games before a 37-29 loss at Connecticut on Nov. 1.

UCF, the AAC leader in total defense, allowed 179 yards on the ground and 20 consecutive points in the second half against a Huskies team that had yet to defeat an FBS opponent this season. The Golden Hurricane took advantage of a matchup with winless SMU at home Saturday, riding Dane Evans' career-high five touchdown passes to a 38-28 triumph. Tulsa has won four straight meetings, including the most recent encounter in the 2012 Conference USA title game.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE HISTORY: UCF opened as big 18-point home favorites and bettors didn't think that was enough as the line has risen to UCF -20.5. The total has held steady at 55.

INJURY REPORT: Tulsa - G Billy Lafortune (questionable Friday, undisclosed). UCF - OL Chavis Dickey (questionable Friday, ankle), OL Joey Grant (questionable Friday, shoulder), WR Rannell Hall (questionable Friday, hamstring).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a clear night at Bright House Networks Stadium with temperatures in the low 60's at gametime. There will be a nine mile per hour wind gusting towards the south end zone.

ABOUT TULSA (2-7, 3-6 ATS, 8-1 O/U): The Golden Hurricane will not appear in a bowl game for the second straight season after earning a berth in seven of the previous eight years, but they have seen Evans lay the foundation for a turnaround. Evans struggled after seizing the starting role as a freshman last year and then threw nine interceptions while posting a 54.6 percent completion rate through his first five games in 2014. He has tossed 10 TDs with zero picks since and has bumped his completion percentage to 56.4 while averaging 302.3 passing yards.

ABOUT UCF (5-3, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Several trends are in the favor of the Golden Knights, who have won 12 straight games played on a weekday - including five in a row on Fridays - and 23 consecutive contests that begin at 3 p.m. local time or later. That might not matter a bit if they cannot do a better job of holding on to the football - UCF has turned the ball over 14 times in the past four games, including three contests with four giveaways. Quarterback Justin Holman was the primary culprit against Connecticut, throwing four interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

CONSENSUS: The consensus is close, with 51 percent of wagers backing UCF as 20.5-point favorite.


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[Udog]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

The Ohio State Buckeyes picked up their biggest win of the season in East Lansing last weekend, trumping Michigan State 49-37 and greatly improving their chances of cracking the College Football Playoff Final Four. The Buckeyes, who own the inside track to the Big Ten title, enter Week 12 ranked No. 7 in the Coaches Poll and jumped six spots to sit No. 8 in the Playoff Poll. Ohio State has a couple of softies – at Minnesota and vs. Indiana – before wrapping up the year against rival Michigan, which would love to spoil OSU’s postseason dreams.

The Buckeyes are ripe for a letdown when they come to TCF Bank Stadium, which needs an army of snow shovelers at $10 an hour to dig itself out before Saturday. Ohio State isn’t just facing a 7-2 Golden Gophers squad but freezing temperatures, howling winds and a chance of more snow by the 12 noon ET kickoff. Rumor has it, OSU is borrowing heaters from the Minnesota Vikings. This isn't going over well with the local media in the Twin Cities.

Lookahead spot

The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will be dreaming of sunny beaches, warm ocean breezes and tropical palm trees when they visit the BYU Cougars in Provo Saturday. The Rebels, at 2-8 SU and riding a three-game losing skid into Week 12, haven’t had much to look forward to this season. However, UNLV will be looking past the Cougars and to an upcoming trip to Hawaii – a much-needed vacation after taking it on the chin each week.

To add to this lookahead spot, the Runnin’ Rebels could be dubbed the “Runnin’ Noses” with temperatures in Provo forecasted to dip below freezing. The extended forecast is calling for the mercury to dip into the 20s with a chance of showers adding to the icy temperatures. The last time UNLV made a trip to the islands, it laid an egg the week before, losing 28-23 as a 1-point home underdog to 4-7 Wyoming in 2012.

Schedule spot

The Golden State Warriors play one of the most frantic paces in the entire NBA. But, even they get tired at times. Golden State currently ranks tops in the league in offensive pace – points per 100 possessions – at 102.6. The Warriors are faced with a busy slate of games this week, kicking off Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets at home Thursday.

The Warriors already had two tough games this week, losing to Houston and Phoenix, and follow the Thursday home date with back-to-back games Saturday and Sunday. Golden State meets a physical Charlotte team at home Friday then visits the Los Angeles Lakers, who are out for revenge Sunday after falling to the Warriors 127-104 in the opening game of the season.

[Udog]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 12

(17) Clemson Tigers at (23) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3)

*Clemson will be getting record-setting freshman QB Deshaun Watson back this week. Watson has been out the Tigers past three contests (3-0 SU/ 0-3 ATS) with a hand injury. Clemson is 4-2 SU and ATS with the freshman in the lineup this season.

*Only two teams have averaged more rushing yards per game than the Yellow Jackets this season. Georgia Tech is averaging 247.8 rushing yards per game and has rushed for 300 or more yards six times in 10 games on the year.

(7) Ohio State Buckeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+12)

*Ohio State has won 12 consecutive games on the road (8-4 ATS), which is the longest active streak in the FBS. The stretch, that started in 2012, has seen the Buckeyes outscore their opponents by an average of 15 points per game.

*The Golden Gophers are 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) at home this season, for the first time since 1977, thanks in large part to QB Mitch Leidner. The sophomore has a 8-2 TD/INT ratio at home this season while completing 57.3 percent of his passes.

Virginia Tech Hokies at (19) Duke Blue Devils (-5)

*Passing against the Hokies this season has been near impossible, with the defense only allowing opposing QBs to complete 47.42 percent of passes, which is the third-lowest rate in the country. However, the team only has five interceptions, three of which came in one game.

*Duke is only allowing .44 sacks per game, an average which ranks first in the nation. The Blue Devils have attempted 325 passes while allowing just four sacks to surrender one sack per every 81.25 passes

Rice Owls at (21) Marshall Thundering Herd (-21.5)

*Rice has recorded 27 sacks during their six-game win streak and is ranked fifth nationally with 3.6 sacks per game while Marshall is only allowing 1.1 sacks.

*Though there has been a lot made of Marshall's offense this season, their defense has been one of the tops in the country. The Thundering Herd are allowing a mere 17.8 ppg, while holding opposing offenses to 358.4 yards per game.

(5) TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks (+28.5)

*TCU QB Trevone Boykin is looking to become one of just three quarterbacks nationally since 2009 to average over 300 yards passing and 50 yards rushing. The other two were Heisman Trophy winners Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel. Boykin is at 299 yards per game passing and 60.7 rushing.

*“He’s a leader in the huddle and he’s a guy that has a presence about him that gives you confidence,” coach Clint Bowen said about QB Michael Cummings. “When he goes on the field, Mike is one of those guys that just makes you believe he’s going to get it done.”

Northwestern Wildcats at (16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-17.5)

*Wildcats QB Trevor Sieman has thrown 337 passes this season, but only has five touchdowns to go with eight interceptions. That means 1.5 percent of his passes have gone for scores while 2.4 percent went for picks.

*Notre Dame has intercepted at least one pass in each of its nine games this year and boasts an active streak of 12 consecutive games with an interception, last failing to pick off a pass on Nov. 9, 2013, at Pittsburgh

(24) Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech (OTB)

*Freshman QB Cody Thomas will get the start for the Sooners after Trevor Knight suffered a head injury during last week's game. Thomas has attempted 16 passes this season for 50 yards and one pick.

*Texas Tech LB Sam Eguavoen is set to return to action after missing two games with compartment syndrome in his right calf. The senior has 32 solo tackles and a sack this season.

Washington Huskies at (18) Arizona Wildcats (-9)

*As a conference, the Pac-12 has the most returns for touchdowns in the nation with 19 (11 punt returns, eight kick returns). But the Arizona Wildcats and Washington Huskies are just two of three teams in the conference which haven't allowed a special teams touchdown.

*Washington head coach Chris Petersen is hoping for more big plays from a passing game which he deemed "painful." "We just need to be able to throw the ball down field a little bit more and make some plays," Petersen said Monday. “It was nice, we got one to Brayden, a big chunk play. We had two other chances to Dante (Pettis) we couldn't quite get done. We need to hit a few of those."

(11) Nebraska Cornhuskers at (22) Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5)

*The status of Nebraska Cornhusker RB Ameer Abdullah is unclear after not practicing during the bye week. "I'm not a doctor," head coach Bo Pelini said Monday of Abdullah. "I don't know how it's going to play out." Abdullah, who's rushed for 1,250 yards and scored 19 touchdowns, was wearing a brace in practice and is officially listed as probable.

*It was announced Monday that the winner of the Nebraska-Wisconsin rivalry game wins the "Freedom Trophy". The Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011 and have played Wisconsin three times since. The Badgers are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU heading into Saturday's meeting.

(1) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (3) Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5)

*Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott is the only other player in the race for the Heisman Trophy. Oregon's Marcus Mariota is the -750 fave, with the Bulldogs' QB next at +500.

*No program does a better job at limiting opposing offenses' yardage at home than Alabama. The Tide allow just 195 yards per game in their home games this season. Next best is Arkansas at 241.7 yards per game - almost 50 yards more per game.

(9) Auburn Tigers at (14) Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)

*Georgia finally gets running back Todd Gurley back this week as the Bulldogs face Auburn. The Dogs were 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in Gurley's five games this season, but posted a record of 5-0 O/U.

*Auburn has struggled at Georgia recently and is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three trips to Sanford Stadium.

(20) LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-2)

*LSU's offense has been heavily dependent on freshman this season. Eighteen of the Tigers' 37 offensive toucdowns (48 percent) have been scored by first-year players, with QB Brandon Harris tallying nine.

*Though just 4-5 SU this season, the Razorbacks have been one of the best bets in the land. The Razorbacks are 7-2 ATS and are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home - exactly where they will be this weekend when the LSU Tigers come into town. The Razorbacks are presently 2.5-point faves and are 3-0 ATS as faves this year.

(12) Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins (+12)

*The Spartans are currently on the outside looking in at the college football playoffs, but coach Mike Dantonio isn't going to just sit around. "A lot of (teams are) sitting around wondering, 'What do we do next?' That's competition at the highest level," Dantonio said. "Deal with it, be a man about it and move on."

*Terrapins leading WR Stefon Diggs, who was slated to serve a one-game suspension for his role in a pregame skirmish with Penn State, suffered a lacerated kidney in that Nov. 1 matchup and could be out until the end of the regular season.

(2) FSU Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes (+2.5)

*Florida State is 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS against in-state foes under Jimbo Fisher (since 2010). The Seminoles have won and covered their all four matchups versus Miami with Fisher at the helm.

*The Hurricanes were one of only two teams to intercept Jamies Winston more than once last season when they picked him off twice despite getting beat down 41-14.

(8) Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers (+9)

*Sun Devils QB Taylor Kelly had his best performance since returning from a foot injury against Notre Dame. "Those first two games (back from injury), getting the timing down in your head with the rush and different routes (was difficult)." Kelly passed for 224 yards (17 for 28) and three touchdowns with one interception.

*It may seem like the first time this season the Beavers will have their entire starting defensive line healthy. Both DE Lavonte Barnett and LB Jaswha James played last week after missing two games and DL Jalen Grimble is expected to play for the first time in five games for the Sun Devils.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Saturday's games
Top games of week
Ohio State won last eight games with Minnesota (6-2 vs spread); they've won last six visits here (5-1 vs spread) winning 52-10/30-7 in last two in Twin Cities. Gophers are 7-2 this year after 51-14 win over Iowa in last game; Minnesota is 6-6 as home dog under Kill. Buckeyes scored 43 ppg in winning its three road games; they're 4-4 as road favorites with Meyer 1-1 this year. OSU ran ball for 268+ yards in five of last six games. Big 14 home underdogs are 11-7 vs spread.

Wisconsin won two of last three games with Nebraska, which lost 48-17 (+10) in last visit here, in '11. Average total in last three series games is 74.3. Huskers won last three games, scoring 38.3 ppg; they've covered last three tries as a road underdog- only loss was 27-22 (+7) at Michigan State, when Spartans held them to 47 rushing yards. Wisconsin won last four games, last three by combined score of 123-23; they're 8-3 as home favorite with Anderson. Big 14 home favorites are 11-13 vs spread.

Home side won last five Clemson-Georgia Tech games; Tigers won last two years at home 55-31/47-31, but lost last four visits to Tech, scoring only 14 ppg- they were favored in two of the four losses. Clemson won its last six games, allowing 11.2 ppg in last five;; they're 2-2 away from home, winning at BC/Wake. Tech scored 47.5 ppg in last four games, winning last three; they're 1-6 in last seven games as an underdog. ACC home underdogs are 9-12 vs spread.

Duke (+10) upset Virginia Tech 13-10 LY, their first series win in last 10 tries; Hokies were double digit favorite in all ten games, now Blue Devils are favored. Duke is 3-0 as home favorite this year, 10-1 since '12- they won home games this year by 38-34-7 points. ACC home favorites are 10-17 vs spread. Tech lost last three games by 5-24-2 points, allowing 28 ppg; they're 2-1 on road, with win at Ohio State, 21-16 loss at Pitt. Hokies covered last three tries as a road dog.

Arkansas had bye last week, LSU lost in OT to Alabama, which has to favor Hogs here, but Bielema is 0-13 in SEC games, with five losses by 7 or less points. LSU won last three series games by 4-7-29 points, with underdogs 5-2 vs spread in last seven meetings. Tigers' last four visits here were all decided by 8 or less points. LSU scored 13 or less points in three of last five games. Hogs covered six of last seven games, are 2-4 as home dog under Bielema, 1-1 this year.

Home side won last six Washington-Arizona games; faves covered four in row in series. Huskies lost last three visits here, losing 52-17/44-14 in last two; they've lost three of last four games overall, are 10-21 in last 31 tries as a road dog, 1-1 this year. Arizona is 2-2 as home faves this year; four of its last six wins were by 7 or less points. Wildcats were held to less than 100 rushing yards in two losses. Huskies allowed 971 yards in last two games. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.

Georgia gets star RB Gurley (suspension) back here; favorites are 5-0 vs spread in last five Auburn-Georgia games. Dawgs won six of last eight series games, winning last three here by 38-7-25 points. Tigers are 0-5 vs spread in last five trips between hedges. Auburn allowed 31+ points in each of last four games; they're 5-00 vs spread as underdogwith Malzahn as coach, 1-0 this year. This is first home game for Georgia in six weeks. SEC home favorites are 8-17 vs spread.

Florida won 38-20/34-10 in two games since Harris became QB; they've got different energy now. Gators ran ball for 632 yards in last two games after being held under 160 rushing yards in previous four games. Florida lost three of last four games with South Carolina, despite Gamecocks not scoring 20 points in any of last three series games. Carolina lost two of three road games, giving up 41.3 ppg; they've lost four of last five games overall- they need to win here or at Clemson for 6-6 regular season.

Florida State dropped to #3 in Final Four ratings, which in reality means little, but guessing it is motivating factor here. Seminoles won last four games with Miami, with three wins by 13+ points in series where dogs are 11-2 vs spread (FSU covered as 21-point fave LY). Miami won last three games, scoring 44 ppg; they're 0-3 as underdogs this year, losing those games by 18-10-11 points- they're 4-0 as home dog under Golden. ACC home underdogs are 9-12 vs spread.

Rice won last six games after 0-3 start; they covered seven of last eight as road underdogs (1-1this year). Owls (+5) lost 24-20 in last visit here; they split last four games with Marshall, with losses by 3-4. Herd was down 14-0 last week, won 63-17; they're 6-1 vs spread last seven games. Don't forget, Marshall is unbeaten but getting shunned in polls, so they are making statements with every win. All nine of their wins are by 15+ points; FAU (35-16) is only team that held them under 42 points.

Texas A&M had lost three of last four games before uplifting 41-38 win at Auburn last week; Aggies are 0-3 as home favorite this year; they've allowed 35+ points in last four SEC games. Missouri won six of its last eight games with A&M; underdogs covered five of those eight. Tigers are 3-2 in last five visits here; they gained 463+ total yards in last three tilts vs Aggies. Mizzou won last three games overall, allowing 12.3 ppg; they covered last five games as an underdog.

Underdogs covered five of last six Arizona State-Oregon State games, as ASU lost last four visits to Corvallis. Nine of last 11 series games were decided by 10+ points. Trap game for Sun Devils after 55-31 home win over Notre Dame last week, when 34-3 lead turned into 34-31 nailbiter with 7:00 left. ASU is 4-0 on road this year, with three wins by 14+ and a 38-34 win at USC- they're 6-2 as road favorites under Kelly. Beavers lost last four games, allowing average of 37.8 ppg.

#1 team in country getting 7 points? Mississippi State lost last six games with Alabama (2-4 vs spread), losing last three visits here by a combined total of 100-24. State won 34-29 at LSU; they're 6-10 as road dog under Mullen, but covered three of last four in that role. Alabama allowed 11.5 ppg in last four games since loss at Ole Miss; they're 8-3 last 11 games as home favorites. Biggest question in this game for me is whether or not Miss State players believe they can win.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Saturday's games
Rest of card
-- North Carolina lost five of last seven games, allowing 43+ points in five of seven. Pitt allowed 107 points in losing its last two games.
-- Home side won last seven Wake Forest-NC State games; underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11. Wake lost last two here by combined 75-9.
-- Penn State won last nine games with Temple, but covered only one of last four. Owls have total of 293 passing yards in last three meetings.
-- Illinois lost four of last five games, covered two of last seven. Iowa got waxed 51-14 at Minnesota last week; they're 2-2 as HFs this year.

-- Army upset UConn last week; they're 0-4 on road, including loss to an Ivy League team. Western Kentucky is 1-3 as a favorite this year.
-- Eastern Michigan won last three games with Western Michigan, all by 6 or less points; Eagles covered five of last six visits here.
-- Tennessee is 16-1 in last 17 games vs Kentucky, covering five of last six; Wildcats lost last eight visits here (2-6 vs spread).
-- Rutgers lost last three games, allowing 45 ppg. Indiana lost its last four games, scoring 11.3 ppg in last three games.

-- Air Force has 836 rushing yards in last two games with Nevada, with home side winning both; Nevada 45-42 LY, Falcons 48-31 in '12.
-- SMU is 0-8 this season, 2-6 vs spread, allowing 38+ points in all eight games. South Florida is 3-6, but is 2-0 as favorite vs I-A teams.
-- Texas State covered last three games, is 4-0 vs spread on road. USA is 5-4, scoring 10 or less points in all four losses- they lost last two games.
-- TCU beat Kansas 20-6/27-17 last two years but Jayhawks covered both games; do Horned Frogs need to win big to impress the pollsters?

-- Appalachian State won last three games, scoring 42.7 ppg. Arkansas State won five of last six games, scoring 40+ in last four.
-- BYU won last six games with UNLV (4-2 vs spread), but Rebels are 5-2 vs spread in last seven visits here. UNLV is 2-3 as road underdog.
-- Utah (+7) upset Stanford 27-21 at home LY; Utes got blown away by Oregon last week after leading early. Cardinal lost three of last five tilts.
-- Utah State had 337 rushing yards in 45-10 win at New Mexico LY. Lobos scored 111 points in last three games, but lost two of three.

-- San Diego State won two of last three games with Boise State, winning 21-19 in last visit here. Aztecs are 1-3 as a road underdog this year.
-- Oklahoma won three of last four games with Texas Tech, scoring 40.5 ppg; underdogs covered three of Sooners' last four visits to Lubbock.
-- Georgia Southern is 8-2, with two losses to ACC teams by total of 5 points. Navy lost two of three home games vs I-A teams.
-- Northwestern lost last four games, scoring 12.5 ppg. Notre Dame split last four games, allowing 42 ppg; they're 2-1 as home favorites.

-- Central Michigan won four of last five vs Miami, winning 21-9/30-16 last two years. Red Hawks did win two of last three visits here.
-- Favorites covered six of last seven Middle Tennessee-FIU games; Blue Raiders won 34-20/28-27 in last two visits here.
-- San Jose State beat Hawai'i 37-27/28-27 last two years; Warriors won 5of last 6 visits here. San Jose lost last three games, allowing 39 ppg.
-- Troy is 0-5 on road (1-3-1 vs spread). Idaho lost three of four at home this year; they're 1-1 as home favorites.

-- Memphis won its last seven games with Tulane and were underdog in three of last four; Tigers won last three visits here, by 16-1-32 points.
-- UL-Lafayette won five of last six games with UL-Monroe, with dogs covering last five in series, six of last seven played here.
-- Favorites covered last five Texas-Oklahoma State games; Longhorns won last seven visits to Stillwater (5-1-1 vs spread).
-- Maryland is surprising 6-3, but last two losses were by 28-45 points. Michigan State lost to Ohio State last week; they're 1-1 as road faves.
-- North Texas had 317 rushing yards in 41-7 home win over UTEP LY. Miners are 4-0 vs spread at home this year, 3-0 when favored.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 15

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Game of the Day: Mississippi State at Alabama
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Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide (-10, 52)

Even after wins over three teams ranked in the top 10 at the time and a month atop the rankings, Mississippi State travels to Alabama on Saturday as the underdog. "We know that role. We're going to be OK with that," coach Dan Mullen said at his weekly press conference. "Our guys are going to come in with a chip on their shoulder and play with great effort. No matter what everyone else is predicting, we want to play that way every week." The winner not only takes control of the SEC West race but also positions itself well for one of four spots in the inaugural College Football Playoff.

Despite holding the top spot in every poll, including the playoff rankings — in which Alabama is ranked fifth — the Bulldogs seemingly have lost the confidence of many pundits, in part because of narrow escapes against Kentucky and Arkansas in recent weeks. The Crimson Tide also had a close call last week, needing to drive for a tying field goal at LSU to force overtime and claim a 20-13 victory. Alabama has dominated the series, winning six straight and 11 of the last 13, and the Crimson Tide have won 13 straight home games overall, the second-longest active streak in the nation.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw Alabama -7 and briefly dropped to -6.5 Monday. Since then though the line has been steadily climbing upwards and currently sits at Alabama -10. The opening total of 52 saw a quick drop to 51 before rebounding to the original 52 line.

INJURY REPORT: Miss St. - WR Jameon Lewis (Prob-Undisclosed), OL Justin Malone (Prob-Undisclosed) Alabama - RB T.J. Yeldon (Prob-Knee), OL Alphonse Taylor (Ques-Concussion)

WEATHER REPORT: Skies are expected to be all clear in Tuscaloosa Saturday. Minimal winds with temperatures around 53.6°F should make it a perfect day for football.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U): The Bulldogs are pinning their hopes on star quarterback Dak Prescott, who averages 247.9 passing yards and 86.6 rushing yards and has racked up 18 TDs through the air and 11 on the ground. "I think his experience helps going into a hostile environment," Mullen said. "He is going to walk on the field with confidence knowing that the situation is not going to be too big for him." The defense gives up 311.1 passing yards per game (124th nationally), though the fact the Bulldogs never trailed in six of their nine games contributed to opponents racking up passing yards.

ABOUT ALABAMA (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 4-5 O/U): The Crimson Tide once again boast one of the top defenses in the nation, ranking third in the country against the run (89.2 yards per game) and fourth in total defense (274.8), but they have a tough assignment this week. "The balance that they have is almost equal in terms of rushing yards and passing yards," coach Nick Saban told reporters. "Those are the most difficult types of teams to defend, and I think that's largely because of the quarterback. Dak Prescott is a very talented guy in a lot of ways." Alabama's offense also has been more balanced than in recent years and has put up some big numbers, but it was limited to 315 total yards — its second-lowest total of the season — at LSU

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
*Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: 64.88 percent of users are backing Miss St. +10 while the total is split with 50.1 percent taking the under.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open: -14.5, Move: -18.5

Money is on Central Michigan hosting the 2-8 RedHawks, who are coming off a 41-10 loss to Western Michigan. There hasn’t been much bet on this MAC matchup but the wise action has demanded a notable move.

“We moved quickly with little money. They hit 16.5 and 17.5,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “The people that played this game made the line -20 (Central Michigan) and bet accordingly, simple as that. One group out there likes the favorite.”

Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

These Mountain West Conference foes opened with the spread at a pick, but action has dictated the Falcons as 2.5-point home chalk – a spread that could continue to grow before the 2 p.m. ET kickoff.

“Early move for this one. Opened pick and went to -2 Monday. It’s stood there all week,” says Kaminsky. “It’s hard to answer (if this line will move more). These aren’t public teams, so you aren’t going to get that movement. There could be groups move this one late, if they like the favorite or the underdog.”

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina State Wolfpack – Open: -13, Move: -17

It’s been all Wolfpack action for this ACC matchup, pushing the number past the key stop at 14 points and all the way to NC State -17 as of Friday afternoon. While it’s not the most high-profile game of Week 12, it could be one of the bigger decisions for books.

“It’s going to be a game where we’ll really need the dog,” says Kaminsky with a sigh. “And Wake is just horrible. That just looks like, in hindsight, a very bad opening number.”

Northwestern Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -16.5, Move: -18

This isn’t a massive line move but it is one of the more interesting games of Week 12. Action has been relatively split with a slight lean to the home side in South Bend. Kaminsky says that this game would see more movement later if it was a night game, rather than scheduled as a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

“If it were a night game, you’d see a push on Notre Dame from the public,” he says. “But with the earlier start, it won’t be there. It’s not like the Florida State-Miami game (8 p.m. ET kickoff). The public is going to look to play on FSU and that’s a low line. Those night games, people are trying to get a winner or double up.”

Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: 59, Move: 55.5

The total for this SEC showdown is dwindling, dropping as much as 3.5 points. Missouri hasn’t been its usual high-scoring self and Texas A&M is ripe for a letdown after a unbelievable win over Auburn last weekend. The spread has also fallen, with the Aggies dropping from -5 to -3.5 against a Missouri team in the hunt for a spot in the SEC title game.

“(Texas A&M) has played some weaker opponents earlier in the year, but since they hit the meat of the schedule, they’ve struggled,” says Kaminsky. “(Missouri) has a pretty decent team, so this move makes sense.”

Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers – Open: +9, Move: +7

Money on this late Pac-12 contest is fading the Sun Devils, coming off a marquee win against Notre Dame last week, despite facing an Oregon State side suffering a four-game slide, most recently a loss to Washington State. That strange movement has Kaminsky looking twice at this line.

“That is surprising. I would say the line move is a little fishy,” he says, hinting that wiseguys could be betting Oregon State only to buy back ASU at the shorter spread. “It’s the last game of the night, too. The public will be all over the favorite. One way or another, this line is going to come back up.”