NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, October 30 - Saturday, November 1)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Saturday's games
Top games of week
Rain expected on east coast Saturday. East Carolina is 6-1, with one loss at South Carolina; they've won last five games, last four by 10+ points. Pirates covered only one of last six games when a road favorite. Temple allowed 31+ points in each of its three losses; in four wins, they allowed total of 41 points. Owls are 3-5 in last eight games as a home dog, 2-2 under Rhule. AAC home underdogs are 0-5 vs spread this season.

Home side won last four Northwestern-Iowa games; Wildcats lost in last two visits to Iowa 17-10/41-31. Northwestern allowed 14 or less points in three wins- they're 0-4 when allowing more than 14- they're 14-7 last 21 games as road underdog, 1-1 this year. Iowa won three of its last four games, scoring 76 points in last two; Hawkeyes are 5-10 in last 15 games as home favorite, 1-2 this year. Big 14 home favorites are 8-9 vs spread.

Red flag for Ole Miss; they completed less than half their passes in last two games (28-65); QB Wallace lost his composure in last week's loss at LSU. Rebels lost 11 of last 14 games with Auburn, with average total of 62.4 in last five. Ole Miss is 8-3-1 as home favorite under Freeze, 2-0-1 this year. Auburn allowed 73 points in splitting last two games; they've scored total of only 43 points in two road games; they're 4-0 as underdog under Malzahn.

Missouri whacked Kentucky 33-10/48-17 last two years; Tigers are 1-3 vs spread at home this year, are 13-10 in last 23 games as home favorite (1-2 this year)- they allowed 31-34 points in two losses. Wildcats lost last two games, allowing 86 points, 629 rushing yards after they started 5-1. Kentucky is 5-13 in last 18 games as road dog, but 3-3 with Stoops as coach. Missouri is +6 in turnovers last couple games. SEC home faves are 7-12 in conference play.

Arkansas lost last 16 SEC games (0-12 under Bielema), 6-10 vs spread (5-7); they've covered five of last six games overall, splitting pair of true road games (21-45 at Auburn, 49-28 at Tex Tech). Mississsippi State QB Prescott had foot in boot after win at Kentucky last week. Bulldogs allowed average of 469.7 ypg in last three games- they're 4-0 at home this year (3-1 vs spread) scoring 45.5 ppg. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in last seven series games- only once in last 17 series games has Miss State beaten Razorbacks by more than 7 points.

Underdogs are 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 Florida-Georgia tilts; only one of Dawgs' last five series wins was by more than 8 points- they won last three series games, by 3-8-4 points. Florida lost three of last four games, averaging 255.3 ypg-- since '97, Florida is 3-2-1 as underdog vs Georgia. Dawgs are 4-3 as favorite this year, 1-2 when laying double digits- they scored 34+ points in every game this year; only one of their six wins is by less than 13 points (35-32 vs Tennessee).

USC is 2-2 on road this year; four games were decided by total of only 14 points; Trojans allowed 24+ points in last four games overall, won 8 of last 9 games vs Washington State (lost 10-7 at home LY)- they've won last four visits here, with three of four by 30+ points. Coogs are 2-6 and scored 31+ points in four of six losses; they allowed 51 ppg in last three games. Wazzu is 3-4 as home underdog under Leach. Pac-12 home dogs are 8-5 in conference play.

Stanford beat Oregon last two years, 26-20/17-14, running ball for 474 yards; win here in 2012 was Cardinal's first in last six visits to Eugene. Ducks won last three games overall, scoring 48.7 ppg; this is just second time in last 22 games they're single digit favorite. Stanford is 5-3 but only team to score more than 17 points against them was Arizona State- they are 4-0-1 as an underdog under Shaw. Totals in Stanford's three road tilts this season were 33-31-36 points.

Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven Oklahoma State-Kansas State games; OSU lost four of its last five visits to Little Apple, with three of four losses by 14+ points. Cowboys lost last two games, allowing 42-34 points after starting season 5-1; they're 3-2 as road underdogs since '10. K-State is 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorite, 3-0 this year, winning home games by 30-32-23 points with 20-14 loss to Auburn. Big X home favorites are 4-6 vs spread.

Georgia Tech won four of last five games (3-1-1 vs spread) with all four wins by 10+ points; Virginia lost 56-20/33-21 in last two visits to Tech. Cavaliers are 2-6 vs spread in last eight visits here. ACC home favorites are 8-12 vs spread. Virginia is 4-4 but hasn't allowed anyone to run for more than 155 yards- they're 3-1 as underdogs this year. Four of Tech's last six games were decided by 6 or less points; they're 2-2 as faves this season, 10-6 in last 16 games as home favorite (1-2 this year).

UCLA beat Arizona 31-26/66-10 last two years; Wildcats are 3-3 in last six games as series underdog. Disappointing Bruins are 1-7 vs spread in '14, giving up 30+ points in last four games- they're 6-5 as home faves under Mora, 0-2 this year. Arizona is 6-1, missing FG on last play in its only loss 28-26 to USC; Wildcats atr 7-5 as underdogs under Rodriguez, 2-0 this season. Five of seven Arizona games were decided by 7 points or less. Pac-12 home favorites are 5-8 vs spread in conference play.

Arizona State won last three games with Utah by 21-1-30 points, with +9 turnover ratio in those games; ASU is 9-4 as home favorite in Graham era- this is first time this year they're home favorite. Utes won all three road games this year, winning by 2 at UCLA, in OT at Oregon State. Last four Utah games were decided by 6 or less points. Sun Devils have Notre Dame coming to Tempe next; are they look past this game? Only game Utah lost was as 13-point home favorite to Wazzu (28-27).

Road team won both TCU-West Virginia games; Frogs won 39-38 here in '12, lost 30-27 at home LY. West Virginia gave Baylor first loss here two weeks ago; they've scored 33+ points in last six games, are 2-1 as an underdog this year, 9-8 under Holgorsen. Big X home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread this season. TCU scored 54.8 ppg in last four games, scoring 58 points in only loss (61-58 at Baylor). Horned Frogs are 2-6 in last 8 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this season.

Notes on rest of the card
-- Notre Dame won its last three games with Navy by average score of 48-19; they ran ball for 551 yards last two meetings. Five of last seven ND series wins are by 18+ points.
-- Underdogs covered last three Boston College-Va Tech games; Hokies won four of last five meetings, with three of four wins by 16+ points, but Tech lost four of last six games overall.
-- UCF hammered UConn 62-17 (-24) LY; Huskies are 1-5 vs spread so far this year- their only cover was 31-21 loss to ECU. Home underdogs are 0-5 vs spread in the AAC.
-- Rutgers covered five of last six games, but gave up 56-42 points in last two games, losing by 39-18 points. Wisconsin lost its only true road tilt so far this season, 20-14 at Northwestern.

-- Syracuse ran ball for 362 yards in 24-10 (+6.5) win at NC State LY. Orange lost five of last six games but is 2-1 when favored this year. ACC home favorites are 8-12 vs spread this year.
-- Pitt (-4) won 58-55 at Duke LY, almost blowing 51-28 lead. Panthers threw ball for 428 yards. Duke is 6-1, with only loss 22-10 at Miami-- they covered four of last five games as a road underdog.
-- Maryland won three of four road games this year, but they've allowed 45 ppg in last three games, losing 52-7 last week. Penn State lost its last three games, allowing 29-31 points in last two home games.
-- North Carolina won its last two games by total of six points; they've given up 49.3 ppg in four road games (2-2 as road dog). Miami scored 85 points in its last two games, is 3-0 as a home favorite this season.

-- Appalachian State is 1-4 vs I-A teams, with three of four losses by 20+ points. Georgia State lost its last seven games, giving up average of 50.3 ppg in last three games.
-- Air Force covered 13 of last 17 games with Army, but failed to cover its last five games as a road favorite. Army lost its last two games by 20, 22 points while allowing 40 ppg.
-- Central Michigan won four of last five games with Eastern Michigan, with three of four wins by 32+ points; Chippewas are 5-2 in last seven trips to Ypsilanti, with three wins by 13 or less points.
-- Texas won its last five games with Texas Tech, but three of five were by 10 or less points; Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in Longhorns' last eight visits to Lubbock. Texas lost five of last seven games overall.

-- Nebraska is 3-1 as home favorite this year, with home wins by 48-10-31-18. Purdue covered seven of last ten games as road underdog; they're 2-0 as road dogs this year, scoring 38-31-38 points in last three games.
-- Baylor won its last four games with Kansas by average score of 46-16; Jayhawks lost last two trips to Waco by combined score of 96-21. Bears had last week off after allowing 99 points in splitting last two games.
-- Western Michigan won last three games with Miami by 3-22-3 points; Redhawks covered five of six as an underdog this year. Broncos covered their last seven games, winning last three by 4-12-21 points.
-- Western Kentucky lost three of four road games despite scoring 38.8 ppg in the four games; Hilltoppers allowed 278+ rushing yards in four of last five games. C-USA home favorites are 8-10 vs spread.

-- Texas A&M switches to freshman QB Allen after losing last three in a row by combined score of 142-51. La-Monroe is 0-6 vs spread in its last six games, scoring 14-14-18 points in last three games.
-- BYU lost its last four games, allowing 40.8 ppg; they're 0-6 vs spread in last six games. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 19-11 vs spread this year, 6-1 at home.
-- South Carolina won three of last four games vs Tennessee, with last two decided by total of 5 points; Vols lost last three visits to Columbia by 3-14-21 points- they're 4-2 as series dog over last 18 years.
-- Oklahoma won last ten games with Iowa State, covering seven of last nine; Sooners had 405 rushing yards in LY's game- they won last four in Ames, covering three, all of which were by 18+ points.

-- Michigan lost four of last five games, covered once in last six; maybe AD quitting Friday will make crowd little less negative. Wolverines won last 11 games vs Indiana, which is 3-3 vs spread in last sixvisits here.
-- Idaho covered four of five as an underdog this year, scoring 27.7 ppg in last three games; underdogs covered their last five games vs Arkansas State, which scored 92 points in last two games, both on road.
-- UL-Lafayette won last three games, scoring 41 ppg after its 1-3 start; Rajin' Cajuns lost 30-8 at South Alabama LY after beating Jaguars 52-30 here in '12. USA won its last four games, allowing 17.8 ppg.
-- Vanderbilt is 2-6, with wins by total of 4 points and one of them was over a I-AA team; Commodores started four QBs this year. ODU gave up 49.4 ppg in last five games, failing to cover last four.

-- Rice won/covered last four games, allowing 19.8 ppg after an 0-3 start; Owls won last two road games by 18-20 points (Southern Miss/Army). FIU covered five of seven tries as an underdog this season.
-- Washington won its three Pac-12 games vs Colorado by average score of 49-11; Huskies ran ball for 279.7 ypg. Buffs covered five of its last six games, losing last two home games by total of 8 points.
-- Oregon State won six of last seven games vs Cal., with favorites 4-0 vs spread in last four. Cal allowed average of 48.5 ppg in its last six games. Favorites covered Cal's last six visits to Corvallis.
-- San Jose State outgained Colorado State by 182/161 yards in winning last two meetings; they won last three over Rams by by 7-20-7 points. CSU is 7-1, winning last six games; only loss was 37-24 at Boise State.

-- South Florida covered four of last five games; they scored exactly 17 points in each of last four home games. Houston (-18) beat USF 35-23 LY. Cougars are 6-4 in last ten games as a road favorite.
-- Underdogs won last three UAB-FAU games SU; Owls won last three series games, winning 38-35/49-34 in last two played here. FAU allowed 35+ points in last four games. UAB is 2-1 as an underdog this year.
-- Home side lost last four UTEP-Southern Miss games; Eagles won last two visits here, 31-13/56-20. C-USA home favorites are 8-9 vs spread this year. Southern Miss covered four of last six games overall.

-- UNLV won five of last six games vs New Mexico, even though Lobos ran ball for 804 yards in last two games. New Mexico lost last three trips to Vegas by 28-35-7 points. Rebels are 1-6 vs I-A teams this season.
-- Texas State (-13) waxed New Mexico State 66-28 LY, running ball for 446 yards; Bobcats won three of last four games, with all three wins by 5 or less points. Aggies are 1-4-1 vs spread in last six games.
-- Ohio State won last six games vs Illinois (4-2 vs spread); Illini lost its last two visits here 52-22/30-0, but had won SU in three of four visits to Horseshoe before that. Illini scored 27+ in six of eight games this year.

-- Fresno State beat Wyoming 48-10/42-14 last two years; they gained 600 yards against Cowboys LY. Wyoming is 2-2 as road dog this year, losing all four away games, by 34-42-10-14 points.
-- San Diego State won last three games with Nevada by 17-1-7 points; Aztecs won last two games overall, allowing 14-10 points. Wolf Pack lost last two home games, allowing 51-31 points.
-- Utah State beat Hawai'i 47-10/35-31 last two meetings, after going 1-5 in previous six games; Aggies lost three of last four visits here. Hawai'i failed to cover last three games as an underdog.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 1

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Game of the Day: Auburn at Ole Miss
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Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 51)

Coming off its third 40-point effort in the last four games, No. 4 Auburn will face a stiff challenge Saturday when it visits ninth-ranked Mississippi in an SEC West showdown. The SEC is loaded with intriguing matchups on a weekly basis, but this contest is particularly attractive since Ole Miss is trying to bounce back from its first loss while Auburn is hoping to avoid losing at both Mississippi schools. The Tigers were defeated at current No. 1 Mississippi State 38-23 two games ago before bouncing back with a 42-35 triumph against South Carolina.

"(Improving on a weekly basis) has been the plan all year from day one," said Auburn coach Gus Malzahn. "We are going to need to have that happen because we are playing the meat of our schedule with three top-10 teams on the road. I don't know another team in the country that is doing that." The other game that Malzahn is referring to is next month's contest at No. 8 Georgia, but first the Tigers must find a way to score against the nation's top defense. The Rebels are giving up just 10.5 points per game and basically fell right on that number in last week's 10-7 defeat at 17th-ranked LSU.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Mississippi -2

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Ole Miss -3, the line has dropped to -2.5. The total has jumped from an opening line of 50 to 51.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn - DE Carl Lawson (Ques-Knee), OL Patrick Miller (Ques-Undisclosed) Ole Miss - DT Robert Nkemdiche (Prob-Undisclosed), CB Cody Prewitt (Prob-Shoulder), OL Ben Still (Prob-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Clear skies are expected for the game with the temperature near 52°F. Winds will be gusting upwards of six mph.

ABOUT AUBURN (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The Tigers landed at No. 3 in the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings - one spot ahead of the Rebels - but whichever team loses Saturday almost certainly will fall out of the playoff picture. Auburn ran for a season-high 395 yards last week against South Carolina with Cameron Artis-Payne totaling 167 yards and a touchdown and quarterback Nick Marshall adding 89 and three scores. Another key weapon for Auburn is Quan Bray, who leads the nation in punt return average (25.2) and has a pair of punt return TDs in 2014.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (7-1, 4-1): Ole Miss has outscored opponents 62-3 in the first quarter this season, including 7-0 against LSU last weekend, but the Rebels could not dent the scoreboard over the final three quarters, losing on an interception by Bo Wallace near the goal line with two seconds left. "This league is brutal," said Rebels coach Hugh Freeze, whose team has thrived off turnovers this season, leading the nation with 90 points off miscues. Wallace, who had thrown 126 consecutive passes without a pick before the final play against LSU, is the SEC's active career leader in passing touchdowns (58), total touchdowns (74), passing yards (8,415) and total yards (9,322).

TRENDS:

*Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
*Under is 10-1 in Rebels last 11 games overall.
*Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
*Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Mississippi.

CONSENSUS: Action on this game is split 50-50, according to Consensus.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 1


Ford's possible return could be big for Sooners

The Oklahoma Sooners have been struggling as of late, but they could be getting a much needed shot in the arm thanks to the possible return of runningback Keith Ford.

Ford's playing status was looking positive earlier in the week, and he's since been listed as probable for Week 10.

No. 20 Oklahoma travels to Ames for a date with Iowa State Saturday. The Sooners are presently 16-point home dogs with the total set at 62.5.


Duke's D largely to thank for surprising season

The Duke Blue Devils have exceeded preseason expectations this year largely in part thanks to their lights out defense.

Duke's D has only surrendered 15.1 PPG, good enough for the fifth best mark in the country. The Blue Devils' defense has also only allowed 20-plus points on two occassions this year.

No. 24 Duke takes on the Pitt Panthers in Pennsylvania Saturday. Pitt is currently 3.5-point home faves with a total of 49.5.


Texas A&M benches QB Hill

Five-star freshman quarterback Kyle Allen will start for Texas A&M on Saturday, sending Kenny Hill to the bench.

Allen lost a competition in fall camp to Hill, who started the season with a school-record 511 yards passing at South Carolina and pushed the Aggies to a 5-0 start.

But the ride became bumpy during a three-game losing streak that culminated last week with a 59-0 loss at Alabama. The numbers aren't there for Hill, either. He has 264 yards and three touchdowns in the past four games.

Head coach Kevin Sumlin sent a messsage to the entire team when he said after the loss to Alabama that all starting positions were re-opened. Sumlin said he will not announce starters before Saturday.

Allen ran the first-team offense in Thursday's practice.

Louisiana-Monroe comes to A&M this week, but the schedule is challenging for the Aggies. On Nov. 8, A&M plays at Auburn with Missouri and LSU left on the Southeastern Conference slate.


Georgia Southern the first team to eight wins ATS

Though they may not be the sexiest name floating around, the Georgia Southern Eagles have been one of the best spread teams in the nation. After the Eagles covered against Troy Thursday, they are now 8-1 against the spread this season.

The lone failure to cover the spread was when they were a large 14.5-point favorite on the road against New Mexico.

Georgia Southern has the most ATS wins in the nation this season, with only TCU's perfect 7-0 providing a safer play.


Gamecocks' top tackler out Saturday

Sophomore linebacker Skai Moore, South Carolina's leading tackler this season, will miss Saturday's game against Tennessee because of an ankle injury.

Moore sprained his right ankle in the Gamecocks' 42-35 loss to Auburn last Saturday. He has 51 tackles this season.

Sophomore Jonathan Walton will replace Moore, who also South Carolina's leading tackler last season, in the starting lineup for Saturday's SEC game. Walton will be backed up by T.J. Holloman.

Moore' s injury was bad news for the Gamecocks (4-4, 2-4), who have struggled on defense this season. They rank last in the SEC and 98th in the country in scoring defense, giving up 32.8 points per game.

South Carolina backup safety Kadetrix Marcus has a sprained shoulder and also will not play against Tennessee (3-5, 0-4).


Stanford has been Mariota's kryptonite

Marcus Mariota may be one of the top dogs in college football, but the Stanford Cardinal have has his number. The Ducks are 0-2 straight-up and against the spread in Mariota's career starts against Stanford.

Against all other teams, the junior pivot has led the Ducks to a 30-2 record straight-up with a 67 percent completion rate. Against the Cardinal, Mariota has only completed 58 percent of passes and is averaging almost 30 yards less passing.


Defense has been huge for Arizona within Pac-12

When it comes to competing within the Pac-12 you will need to be able to score points, but Arizona has been playing stellar on the other side of the ball. In their past four Pac-12 contests, the Wildcats have 13 sacks and eight forced turnovers.

Arizona has outscored Pac-12 opponents 165-134 while going 3-1 straight-up (2-2 against the spread).


TCU finally playing outside of Texas

We are entering Week 10 of the college football season and this week marks the first time that TCU has played outside of Texas. The Horned Frogs have hosted five of their first seven with the other two coming against in-state opponents.

Last season in TCU's four game outside of the Lone Star state they went 2-2 against the spread with a 3-1 over/under record.

TCU travels to West Virginia Saturday.


Georgia Tech will run without top two RBs

Georgia Tech will be without its top two rushers Saturday against Virginia.

Senior B-back Zach Laskey, the Yellow Jackets' leading running back (595 yards), will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury suffered Oct. 18 vs. North Carolina. He missed the Yellow Jackets' 56-28 win against Pittsburgh last weekend.

Senior A-back Charles Perkins scored on a 79-yard pass play against Pitt, but he suffered a knee injury shortly after. His 261 rushing yards are second on the team.

Without Laskey and Perkins, the Jackets will again count on senior Synjyn Days and junior Broderick Snoddy.

Days started in place of Laskey against Pitt and led the Jackets with 110 rushing yards -- his first 100-yard game -- on 22 attempts.

Snoddy, 5 feet 9 and 190 pounds, ran for 82 yards and three touchdowns (4, 34 and 28 yards) on six carries.

[Udog]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 10

So many games. So little time. If you've been too busy Trick-or-Treating or just stuffing your face with leftover Halloween candy to handicap Saturday's biggest and best college football matchups, we've got the solution. Check out need-to-know betting notes for all of NCAAF Week 10's Top 25 games, including a massive SEC showdown between Auburn and Ole Miss.

(19) East Carolina Pirates at Temple Owls (+7.5)

*With the release of the College Football Playoff Poll, the media is in a tizzy over the rankings, but not Ruffin McNeill. "I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but I am informed. We didn't play a game and moved up," the Pirates coach said. "We don't coach for rankings. I've never coached that way and I'm not going to start now."

*In their loss to UCF, the Owls were shutout in the first quarter for the first time since Nov. 2013. Temple had outscored opponents 59-27 before giving up 17 to the Knights.

(24) Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers (-3.5)

*The Blue Devils are exceeding preseason expectations thanks to their stingy defense. Duke has only surrendered 15.1 ppg, which is the fifth-best mark in the country, while only allowing 20-plus points twice this year.

*With their seven fumbles (six lost) against Georgia Tech one week ago, the Pitt Panthers now average the fifth-most fumbles per game in the nation at 2.3. Eastern Michigan leads with 2.7 fumbles per game.

(20) Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones (+16.5)

*The Sooners have been faltering, but they may be getting a boost with the return of RB Keith Ford. "All signs are towards" the sophomore returning this week, according to offensive coordinator Josh Heupel.

*A dynamic piece of the Cyclones offense, Jarvis West, they have been missing may be back for good. The past three games have seen the senior ineffective due to injuries, but he has been running full speed this week.

Florida Gators at (8) Georgia Bulldogs (-12.5)

*Florida Gators head coach Will Muschamp has accepted the criticism the fans are piling on recently. Calls to be fired have led Muschamp to take a "bunker mentality" heading into the meeting with Georgia. The Gators have almost become instant-fade material as well, going just 2-4 ATS this season.

*The NCAA stated that Georgia running back Todd Gurley must sit out at least two more games for accepting over $3,000 from signing memorabilia. The Bulldogs have played two games without the services of the star RB and are 2-0 SU and ATS in those contests.

Purdue Boilermakers at (16) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-23.5)

*The Boilermakers look to score at least 31 points for the fourth-straight week, which would be the first time since 2007 and the first time since 1980 that they have done so in four consecutive Big Ten games.

*Huskers QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. saw limited action against Purdue last season, but only completed 33 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions. "I know they threw a lot at me. There were a lot of things that I anticipated seeing, but I didn't see them at all," the senior said.

(10) TCU Horned Frogs at (22) West Virginia Mountaineers (+5.5)

*It is Week 10 and this will be TCU's first game outside of its home state of Texas. The Horned Frogs went 2-2 ATS outside of the Lone Star State last season.

*West Virginia running back Rushel Shell is expected to play against TCU. Shell injured his ankle against Baylor on Oct. 18. The sophomore has 503 yards on 114 carries including six touchdowns on the season.

Kansas Jayhawks at (12) Baylor Bears (-35.5)

*It certainly hasn't been a banner season for the Jayhawks, but if they've had any value in the betting community, it's certainly with the Under. The Jayhawks begin the season with a 34-28 win against SE Missouri State. Not only was it their lone SU win this season, but it was their only Over. Kansas has cashed in on six-straight Under bets heading into its meeting with Baylor.

*Baylor continues to win despite a lack of focus. The Bears are the most highly-penalized team in the country with an average of 11 flags thrown for 106.8 yards per game (almost 20 yards more than the next worst team).

(4) Auburn Tigers at (9) Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5)

*It is easy to see why Auburn is the defending SEC Champion. In the past 46 quarters against fellow SEC opponents, the Tigers have scored an offensive touchdown in 42 of them (91 percent).

*Hugh Freeze knew what went wrong for Ole Miss in their loss to LSU. "Our demeanor was a bit different in that environment," the coach said about playing at Tigers Stadium. "We let things get to us that have not bothered us earlier in the season. It seemed to rattle us a little bit."

Arkansas Razorbacks at (1) Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10.5)

*Arkansas has struggled in recent meetings at Mississippi State. The Razorback are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings there, with their last cover coming as a 3-point favorite in 2010.

*Despite Dak Prescott throwing three of his five interceptions over the past two weeks, Dan Mullen is not affected. "I evaluate them all differently. He had pressure in his face with the one on Saturday," the coach says. "The one in the end zone against Auburn I did not mind because he had one-on-one coverage."

Stanford Cardinal at (6) Oregon Ducks (-8)

*Stanford’s three losses have all come against teams ranked among the Top 20. The Cardinal are 10-4 in their past 14 games against teams ranked in the AP Top 25, and were 6-1 in such games in 2013.

*If there's one stat, that is not focused solely Marcus Mariota, that points to the Ducks' success it's the giveaway numbers. Oregon is averaging 0.6 giveaways per game, which ties them with Georgia for the best in the nation.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at (11) Kansas State Wildcats (-15)

*To say the Oklahoma State Cowboys have struggled putting points on the board would be an understatement. In the last 10 quarters of football (dating back to halftime versus Kansas), the Cowboys have scored just 26 points.

*Kansas State is one of the most disciplined teams in the country when it comes to penalties. The Wildcats rank fourth in the nation with just 3.7 penalties per game. When asked why his teams are so good avoiding penalties, coach Bill Snyder said "Well, if they get penalized, we shoot ‘em."

(7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen (+14)

*The Fighting Irish are certainly having no problems scoring against Navy. Notre Dame has not had to punt in five of its last nine meetings with the Middies.

*As expected, Navy's triple-option offense has been putting up amazing rushing numbers this season. Through the first eight games, Navy is averaging 353.3 rushing yards per game, which is the third highest in the country.

Illinois Fighting Illini at (13) Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5)

*The Fighting Illini are one of only three teams in the country that have yet to stop an opponent from scoring once they've entered the red zone.

*Ohio State will try to tie its Big Ten record for consecutive regular season conference victories when the No. 13 Buckeyes host Illinois Saturday night. Ohio State has won 19 straight Big Ten games, one shy of the conference record set by the program from 2005-07.

(15) Arizona Wildcats at (25) UCLA Bruins (-6.5)

*Defense has vaulted the Wildcats to a different level in the Pac-12. The opportunistic defense has 13 sacks and forced eight turnovers in its past four games against conference opponents.

*Jim Mora is certainly not buying into the notion that UCLA is not a national championship contender after two close contests. "As much gloom and doom as there is out there, I would challenge anyone to go find a UCLA team in the history of UCLA that has done what this group has done in two and a half years," the coach said. "Let's all remember the last game that UCLA played before this whole thing started was a 50-to-nothing (butt)-kicking."

(18) Utah Utes at (14) Arizona State Sun Devils (-5.5)

*Despite Utah's revolving door at quarterback, the defense has made sure the team is in games early. The Utes are only allowing 1.7 point per game in the first quarter, which is good for the second-fewest points in the first stanza in the nation.

*Coach Todd Graham is placing a lot of pressure on the Sun Devils leading into this weeks game. "I look at it as a single-elimination tournament,” Graham told reporters. “You cannot afford to lose, especially South Division games."

[Udog]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

The college football schedule opens the final month of the regular season with a busy Saturday. Action has been hot and heavy since lines hit the board Sunday.

We talk with Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com about the biggest adjustments on the Week 10 board, which games the wiseguys like, and where those odds will end up come kickoff.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes – Open: -11.5, Move: -17, Move: -14.5

Money on the favorite pushed the opening number as many as 5.5 points – to Miami -17 – before sharps bought back North Carolina, trimming the spread to -15. Wiseguys weren't the only ones getting involved with this early ACC matchup.

“This is one the game I actually bet this week,” says Kaminsky. “I took the Tar Heels at +17. It was all Miami money and they steam Miami all the way to -17, then got down on the underdog at +17. North Carolina has a terrible defense but they can move the ball. I don’t mind taking the points when a team can move the ball.”

Georgia State Panthers at Appalachian State Mountaineers – Open: -7, Move: -13.5

This line has jumped nearly a touchdown with action on App State. The Mountaineers host a Georgia State team with one win on the year, that coming in the season opener, that has lost seven in a row against FBS competition.

“That’s quite the move,” says Kaminsky. “It just looks like a bad number.”

BYU Cougars at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Open: +7, Move: +3, Move: +3.5

The Cougars are still trying to win their first game since Heisman-contending QB Taysom Hill went down for the season. Brigham Young is 0-3 SU and ATS under with backup Christian Stewart under center. And although the offense hasn't dropped off, the defense has given up 128 total points in that three-game span.

“We got as low as -3,” says Kaminsky. “(Brigham Young) won their first four games but played some weaker competition. And they haven’t performed that great since (Hill) left.”

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs – Open: -13.5, Move: -14, Move: -10.5

The “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” – or whatever the PC Watchdogs are calling it nowadays (doesn't matter, people are going to get shitfaced anyways) – has seen some significant movement. The line jumped as high as two touchdowns before money on Florida trimmed the spread to UGA -10.5.

The Gators haven’t had much to play for this season, falling behind the SEC pack, and head coach Will Muschamp is getting grilled by pissed-off Florida fans, making this a possible must-win for UF. However, Kaminsky doesn't buy into a sudden turnaround from the Gators Saturday.

“I don’t know how you make a case for Florida,” he says. “Georgia has Kentucky next week, so they’re not worrying about that and are gearing up for this game just as much as Florida.”

Auburn Tigers at Mississippi Rebels – Open: -3, Move: -1.5

Some books have taken as many as 1.5 points off this spread with action coming in on Auburn. Ole Miss suffered its first loss of the season against LSU in Death Valley last week but still hung in the Top 4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. Auburn, the defending SEC champ, rebounded from its first loss with an ATS loss to South Carolina at home.

“We actually have very little bet on this game right now,” says Kaminsky. “If Ole Miss had beaten LSU last week, like 17-3 or 20-3, it’s possible they would be like 4-point favorites.”

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks – Open: -11, Move: -8

Action is hitting the underdog in this Pac-12 battle. Oregon has won three in a row SU and ATS but the Ducks defense is a concern. They've given up 462.4 yards per game – 108th in the land – and 25.9 points per game, which doesn't seem like national title material.

“Boy that (opening line) looked high to me. And I was right,” says Kaminsky. “Stanford has a pretty good defense. They’re No. 1 in total yards allowed (250.6 ypg) and they played Notre Dame – held them to 17 points – played Washington and held them to 13, held Washington State to 17, held Oregon State to 14. And they did what they were supposed to against the crap teams.”

Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: -8, Move: -5.5

Sharp money has been all over the Volunteers this week, pushing this spread past the key number of six at some books. Others are holding tight to South Carolina -6 but don’t have too much faith in the Gamecocks as home favorites.

“South Carolina just isn't that good, honestly,” says Kaminsky. “They played Auburn tough last week but give up a zillion points. Their only good defensive performance was against Furman (two weeks ago). Tennessee plays into the theory that you can play on an underdog that will move the chains. I guess that’s why they took the points.”