NFL week 9

[roccodean]

based on 1-5*

1* 6 point tease (-110) Balt +7.5/Hou +8.5

Would get in asap...balt going to move to fav

[roccodean]

2* NO/Car over 48

2* Houston +3 (buy half, -125)

This line closes Hou as a fav to take now if you like

[kbsooner21]

Best of luck Rocco!

[10DimeBry]

GL rocco

[roccodean]

THX guys

1* Jets+10

[roccodean]

2* jags +11

2* 1st half wash/Minne under 22

[jcindaville]

Good luck Rock

[roccodean]

Thx

1* Oakland +14.5

[roccodean]

3* Houston over Philly

The Eagles are only slightly better than the Texans and don’t deserve to be laying nearly a FG here. My numbers have Houston as a 0.5 point favorite in this game. The Eagles offense hasn’t been good this year; 23rd in rushing offense efficiency and 22nd in passing offense efficiency. They will face a Houston D that is pretty good; 16th in rushing defense efficiency and 9th in passing defense. The Eagles offensive line has been very bad this year and the Texans strength is their defensive line. Houston has lost 3 straight games which puts them in a great 95-58 ATS situation.

2* NY Jets +10 over KC

This is going to sound wrong, but the Jets are not a terrible team…they look terrible because their QB play has been terrible. Their defense has been pretty good this year (4.7 YPP) especially against the run where they are 5th in efficiency. Their pass D has been a weakness, but KC's passing offense is only average (14th in efficiency). Here is the key...the Jets are 6th in rushing efficiency and 5th in YPR vs a KC defense that is 27th in YPR and 24th in rushing defense efficiency. The Chiefs are even in yards/play diff (5.3 for and against)...these teams shouldn't be double digit favs. The Jets are an abysmal -15 in TO diff and very unlucky in fumble luck at -5. I don't think there is a drop off from Smith to Vick and if Vick takes care of the ball I think the Jets get the cover here. There is a great trend favoring the Jets (154-71 ATS) based on the fact that the Jets have lost 7 straight.

2* Washington/Minnesota 1st half under 22

My algorithm has this total at 38.5. My algorithm has been money on 1st half unders when it rec's whole game unders. Also, RG3 will take a few series to get back in the flow. The Vikings last 4 games: 10, 3, 16, and 19 points (last 6 on fumble recovery in OT).

2* Jacksonville +11 over Cinci

The Jags are in a good position to cover this double digit spread. They will be able to run the ball versus a Cinci D that is 28th in YPR (dead last in rushing defense efficiency) which will help run the clock, which is always good for a big dog. The Jags defense has been playing very well recently only giving up 3 TD’s in the last 4 games. They are 13th in rushing def efficiency and 12th in passing defense efficiency. They will face a Cinci offense that is simply average (13th in rushing efficiency,16th in passing efficiency). A huge reason Jax has looked so bad is Bortle’s interceptions (-10 in turnovers this year)…if he simply cares for the ball they will stay in this game. This is a terrible spot for the Bengals as well because they are off a big division win versus Baltimore and face another division foe (Clev) on Thursday night. Jags keep this one close and get the cover!

1* Oakland +14.5 over Seattle

I am not going to bore you with stats in this game. Oakland is not good and Seattle is above average...hence the line. But there are multiple trends favoring Oakland. Winless team in week 9 or later are 64-31-2 ATS (67%). Winless double digit dogs from week 8 onwards are 20-6-2 ATS and have won outright 5 times. My calculated line is Seattle -13.5. Hold your breath and take the dog.

1* 6 Point tease: Baltimore +7.5/Houston +8.5

See Houston Analysis Above

Balt

The books opened this line Pitt -2 which makes no sense...and the money has moved Baltimore to the fav. My calculated line is Balt -3 and it is heading there. The Steelers have been playing bad all year and nwo that they beat the Colts last week people are high on them? I'm not buying it. The steelers strenght has been their pass off which is 4th in efficiency, but the Ravens are 7th in pass defense. The Steelers D has been terrible this year....20th vs the run and 24th vs the pass. Jimmy Smith is out for the Ravens which I think will impact the Ravens D, hence the tease here.