Announcement

**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 12:53 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: McCoy a key to Chargers-Broncos matchup

Two of the top teams in the AFC will get back to work on a short week when West Division rivals Denver and San Diego square off in the Mile High City on Thursday night.

The defending AFC champion Broncos (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) come in off a 42-17 blitzing of San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite in the Sunday night game. The Chargers (5-2 SU and ATS) had their five-game SU winning streak snapped Sunday in a 23-20 home loss to Kansas City as a 3-point fave.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said Chargers coach Mike McCoy – a former Broncos assistant – is a key component.

“You’ve always got the Mike McCoy factor supporting San Diego in this matchup. They played them closely all three times last year, beating them at Mile High (in the regular season), and I expect much of the same this week,” Lester said.

With the Broncos’ convincing win over the 49ers, Lester said, “We’ll make the Broncos around 6-point chalk.”

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle (3-3 SU and ATS) has already matched its loss total from all of the 2013 season, following up its home setback to Dallas with a 28-26 road loss to St. Louis as a 6.5-point chalk Sunday.

Carolina (3-3-1 SU, 4-3 ATS), another NFC playoff team from last year, is in nearly the same boat. The Panthers, who went 12-4 SU last year, got clocked Sunday at Green Bay, losing 38-17 as a 6.5-point underdog.

“Bizzaro Cam Newton was in uniform for Carolina, and he’s always a wild card,” Lester said. “Meanwhile, you’ve got the defending champs staring three straight losses square in the face. We’re expecting the public to back Seattle in a big way.”

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2)

Aaron Rodgers and Co. are on fire of late, rebounding from a 1-2 start (1-1-1 ATS) to win their last four in a row SU and ATS, including three in blowout fashion. On Sunday, the Pack (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) scored the first 28 points of the game and breezed to a 38-17 win over Carolina laying 6.5 points at home.

On the flip side, New Orleans (2-4 SU and ATS) is watching its season slowly get away. On Sunday at Detroit, the Saints let a 23-10 fourth-quarter lead slip away in the final few minutes, giving up two TDs in a 24-23 loss. On the bright side, New Orleans cashed as a 1.5-point pup.

“The Packers offense is beginning to show signs of its form a few years ago. I don’t know how Rob Ryan’s defense is going to keep it under control,” Lester said. “That said, Green Bay’s defense isn’t as good as it looked (against Carolina). We didn’t want to make the Saints underdogs in their dome, but given the current climate of both teams, it was close.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Philly (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is coming off its bye week before traveling cross-country, after steamrolling the New York Giants 27-0 as a 1-point chalk on Oct. 12. Arizona (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) surprisingly leads division rivals Seattle and San Francisco, and comes in off a 24-13 win at Oakland as a 3.5-point fave Sunday.

“This is a good measuring stick for both teams and about as much of a tossup game as you can get,” Lester said. “The Eagles got a breather with their bye week, while Arizona took care of business in what many thought to be a trap game at Oakland. I think the home team gets it done here in a close one.”

**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 12:53 PM

NFL Week 8 line watch: Bettors should be quick to back Chiefs

Spread to bet now

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Would you bet on a team the week after it plays in the Super Bowl? That’s essentially what you would be doing if you lay cash on the Rams in this one. St. Louis used every tactical weapon in its arsenal to take down the Seahawks, and you have to wonder how much petrol will be left in the tank when they travel to Kansas City this coming Sunday.

The Chiefs are coming off the high of a solid win in San Diego that kept them in the playoff conversation, and they are a solid 4-2 against the spread. Kansas City will no doubt do everything it can to run the ball against the Rams’ 28th-ranked rush defense, so all the arrows are pointing toward the Chiefs in this one. Jump before the line goes up a half-point.

Spread to wait on

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

This is the early game of year in the NFL, with both teams at 5-1. The Eagles have been pasting teams at home, but have actually been outscored by opponents in their two home games. Still, early money is on the Eagles, who are a national team and always attract play.

There is a possibility that this one could move to 2-points as heavy money on Philly from the East continues to flood the offshores. Arizona is 5-1 and starting to take of advantage of dysfunction in San Francisco and Seattle to make a real run at the NFC West.

Total to watch

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (In London) (47)

These are the worst of times in Atlanta, where the 2-5 Falcons are basically out of it already in the NFC South and giving up gobs of points, despite a benign schedule so far. Fans have been clamoring for Mike Smith’s head on a platter, and there is already talk about bringing in Rex Ryan to fix what ails the defense, which is just about everything.

The Lions aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard every week, but they’ve been winning with their league-best defense that allows only 15 points a game. The Falcons will want to run the ball to stay competitive and keep the fans off their backs, so a long look at an under play is needed here.

**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 12:55 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 23

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 2) at DENVER (5 - 1) - 10/23/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 84-60 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 26

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DETROIT (5 - 2) vs. ATLANTA (2 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 50-74 ATS (-31.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (2 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 138-175 ATS (-54.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 138-175 ATS (-54.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (3 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 3 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-55 ATS (-31.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 6) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (3 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (3 - 4) at TENNESSEE (2 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 1) at ARIZONA (5 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 159-124 ATS (+22.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (0 - 6) at CLEVELAND (3 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 0-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 4) - 10/26/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 27

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WASHINGTON (2 - 5) at DALLAS (6 - 1) - 10/27/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 12:55 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, Oct. 23rd

San Diego at Denver, 8:25 ET
San Diego: 29-14 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Denver: 11-3 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Sunday, Oct. 26th

Detroit at Atlanta, 9:30 AM ET
Detroit: 7-21 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
Atlanta: 0-7 ATS in road games in the first half of the season

Minnesota at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Tampa Bay: 10-22 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Chicago at New England, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 25-43 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
New England: 55-36 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

St Louis at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 2-11 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Kansas City: 29-14 ATS in home games in non-conference games

Seattle at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 18-6 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points
Carolina: 79-55 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Buffalo at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 31-15 ATS after a win by 3 or less points
New York: 3-13 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog

Miami at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Miami: 10-27 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Jacksonville: 5-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 1-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Tennessee: 6-16 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 60-39 UNDER off a home win
Cincinnati: 10-2 ATS in home games

Philadelphia at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Arizona: 40-22 OVER after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS as a road favorite
Pittsburgh: 60-36 ATS in weeks 5 through 9

Oakland at Cleveland, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 26-13 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 50-28 UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

Green Bay at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 77-51 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
New Orleans: 10-24 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Monday, Oct. 27th

Washington at Dallas, 8:30 ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS as an underdog
Dallas: 8-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins

**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 12:56 PM

NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 23

8:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego

Sunday, October 26

9:30 AM
DETROIT vs. ATLANTA
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Minnesota is 1-11-1 SU in its last 13 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. KANSAS CITY
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
NY Jets are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. JACKSONVILLE
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 15 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home
Cincinnati11-1-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

4:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ARIZONA
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. PITTSBURGH
Indianapolis is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Oakland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Washington

Monday, October 27

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing on the road against Carolina
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Carolina14-5-2 SU in its last 21 games

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**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 12:57 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday
Chargers (5-2) @ Broncos (5-1)—Battle for first place in AFC West; Denver is 5-1 in last six series games, beating San Diego 24-17 in playoffs here LY, after Bolts had won 27-20 in regular season. Chargers had 5-game win streak snapped by Chiefs Sunday; they’re 2-1 on road, losing by point at Arizona- their two losses are by total of four points. Denver is on serious roll, winning/covering all three games since their bye, scoring 38 ppg (13 TD’s on 36 drives); Broncos averaged 8.8/9.9/10.5 yards per pass attempt in last three home games- they’re 14-5 as home favorites in Manning era, 2-2 this year. Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, 2-0 this year- they were dogs at Buffalo in Week 3. League-wide, divisional home favorites are 8-11 against spread. Last three Denver games went over total.

**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 09:27 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 23

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Thursday Night Football: Chargers at Broncos
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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 51)

The new touchdown king of the NFL quarterbacks isn't getting much time to savor his record-breaking night, as Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos face a quick turnaround and a key division clash against the visiting San Diego Chargers on Thursday. The Broncos are aiming for their fourth straight win after Manning passed for 318 yards and four TDs in a 42-17 win over San Francisco on Sunday night. Denver has a half-game cushion in the AFC West over San Diego, which had a five-game winning streak snapped with a 23-20 loss to Kansas City on Sunday.

Manning's 33rd game of four or more touchdowns gave him 510 career TD passes, moving him past Brett Favre (508) for the NFL's all-time lead. Both Manning (9-2) and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (4-1) have performed well on Thursday, though Rivers and San Diego outdueled Manning and the Broncos in a 27-20 victory on Thursday night last December. The teams have split their 10 meetings over the past five seasons, but the Broncos have won four of the past five.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Denver has opened as 7.5-point home faves with a total of 51.

INJURY REPORT: Chargers - RB Donald Brown (questionable, concussion), DB Brandon Flowers (questionable, concussion), CB Jason Verrett (questionable, shoulder). Broncos - RB Montee Ball (questionable, groin).

WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the north endzone at 3 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-3.25) + Broncos (-8.5) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -8.25

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (5-2 SU 5-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Rivers (1,961 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INTs) has put up huge numbers, but the offense stalled against the Chiefs with a season-low 251 total yards. The Chargers also had a tough time stopping the run, giving up a season-high 154 yards on the ground, but that's not likely to be a concern against Denver. San Diego ranks third in the NFL against the pass and has not allowed more than 300 passing yards yet this season.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Even at age 38, Manning (1,848 yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs) boasts the top quarterback rating in the AFC, and the Broncos have put up 31 or more points in three straight games. Denver's receiving corps will test San Diego's strong pass defense, as four receivers have at least 17 receptions and at least one touchdown. The Broncos' defense has been somewhat susceptible to the pass but ranks third in the league against the run and hasn't allowed more than 62 rushing yards during the three-game winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in October.
* Under is 4-0 in Broncos last four vs. AFC West.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, the Broncos have the slight edge at 50.34 percent.

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**Udog** · 10-22-2014, 09:28 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 23

Chargers have been money when facing Broncos

The San Diego Chargers have shown glimpses of being one of the top teams in the NFL and they will put that to the test against Denver. Even though it will be a tough task, the Chargers are money against the spread when they play the Broncos.

San Diego is 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 against the Broncos and 7-0-4 ATS when they travel to Mile High.

Chargers are currently 7.5-point dogs.

**Udog** · 10-23-2014, 08:26 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

San Diego at Denver
The Chargers head to Denver on Thursday night where they are 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Broncos. San Diego is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+8 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23

Game 103-104: San Diego at Denver (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.793; Denver 144.240
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+8 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19

Game 251-252: Detroit vs. Atlanta (9:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.696; Atlanta 122.308
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Over

Game 253-254: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.560; Tampa Bay 125.877
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over

Game 255-256: Chicago at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.157; New England 139.349
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 6; 50
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6); Under

Game 257-258: St. Louis at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 132.898; Kansas City 136.890
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Over

Game 259-260: Seattle at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 137.665; Carolina 130.589
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7; 39
Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4 1/2); Under

Game 261-262: Buffalo at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 129.050; NY Jets 128.875
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 263-264: Miami at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 134.014; Jacksonville 125.568
Dunkel Line: Miami by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 5 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5 1/2); Under

Game 265-266: Houston at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.722; Tennessee 125.181
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 1; 42
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-1); Over

Game 267-268: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 140.291; Cincinnati 133.960
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1 1/2); Under

Game 269-270: Philadelphia at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.739; Arizona 138.243
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-2 1/2); Under

Game 271-272: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.383; Pittsburgh 134.563
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Under

Game 273-274: Oakland at Cleveland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.562; Cleveland 129.200
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7); Under

Game 275-276: Green Bay at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.139 New Orleans 136.636
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-1); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 27

Game 277-278: Washington at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.523; Dallas 133.828
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10); Under

**Udog** · 10-23-2014, 08:31 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

-- San Diego is 8-1-1 in last ten games as a road underdog.

-- Browns are 6-12-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite.

-- Arizona is 7-3-1 in its last eleven home games.

-- New England covered eight of last ten non-divisional home games.

-- Titans covered twice in their last fourteen games.

-- Ravens are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a road underdog.

**Udog** · 10-23-2014, 09:38 AM

NFL

Week 8

Broncos jump to 8.5-point favorites overnight

Denver hosts San Diego in this week's edition of Thursday Night Football and there was quite a jump in the points spread overnight.

The Broncos opened as 7.5-point home favorites over the division rival Chargers, but the number jumped to -8.5 early Thursday morning.

Denver is 3-3 against the spread this season, while San Diego is 5-2 ATS.

Knee could sideline Texans' Cushing

Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing might sit out at least one game to rest an ailing knee, according to a report Wednesday.

The knee has bothered Cushing for the past two weeks and noticably affected him during the Texans' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.

Cushing tore the ACL in the same knee last year and has had it drained several times this season.

The Texans (3-4) face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday and then play the Philadelphia Eagles before a bye week. There is a possibility that he might sit out the two games and return after the bye for a game against the Cleveland Browns.

In seven games this season, Cushing has 50 tackles and one sack.

**Udog** · 10-23-2014, 04:47 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 23

Over still dominating Thursday night football

A short week has caused the defense to put up poor displays so far this season. In the seven Thursday night football games, the over has paid out six times.

There has been an average of 54 points scored in these primetime affairs with only one game failing to break 50 points.

The San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos total is currently dealing at 51.

Line continues to jump towards Broncos

The spread just continues to jump in favor of Denver for their Thursday night matchup with San Diego.

The line which opened with the Broncos as 7.5-point home favorites, has jumped again to now sit at Denver -9.5. The Broncos were listed as 8.5-point home favorites much of Thursday morning before moving to the current number.

The Broncos are 3-3 against the spread this season, while the Chargers hold a 5-2 ATS record.

**Udog** · 10-23-2014, 09:14 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Lions (5-2) vs Falcons (2-5) (London)—Atlanta is in freefall, losing last four games while allowing 31.8 ppg (13 TD’s on 41 drives); they allowed 9+ yards/pass attempt in four of last six games, losing all four road games by 10+ points (average score, 31-16). Detroit won four of last five games, scoring two TD’s in last 3:38 to stun Saints at home last game; they’ve held four of last five opponents to 17 or less points. Atlanta is 2-5 this season when scoring less than 37 points. Lions won two of three road games, with favorite covered all three games; over last 10+ years, they’re 6-9-2 as road favorites, but 2-0 this season. Falcons won last three series games, by 13-7-13 points. NFC South teams are 2-12-1 SU in non-divisional road tilts, 3-8-1 vs spread. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-5.

Vikings (2-5) @ Buccaneers (1-5)—Minnesota lost last three games, scoring total of 29 points (two TD’s on last 37 drives); they scored 34-41 points in only two wins- they’re 1-5 without Peterson. Vikings are 1-3 on road, 0-2 outdoors, scoring 13 ppg outside. Buccaneers won last six series games, with four of six by 11+ points; Vikings lost last six visits to Tampa, with last win in ’97. Tampa Bay allowed 85 points in last two games before its bye; they’re 7-12-1 in last 20 games as home favorite, 0-2 this year- they’re 0-3 SU at home this year, losing by 6-2-31 points and two of those three games were against backup QB’s. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Last four Buc games went over total; five of seven Viking games stayed under.

Bears (3-4) @ Patriots (5-2)— After being 4-10-1 as road underdog from 2011-13, Bears are 3-1 this year; visitor won six of seven Chicago games this season, with Bears 3-1 SU on road - they led late at Carolina before turning ball over on last three drives and losing 31-24. Chicago lost three of last four games overall, turning ball over nine times (-6) in three losses. Bears are 3-0 this season when allowing 20 or less points, 0-4 when allowing 23+- they’re +7 in turnovers when they win, -8 in losses. Patriots covered four of last five vs NFC teams; they won last three games with Chicago by 3-4-29 points. Pats are 0-2 as home faves this year, 21-15 in last 36 as non-divisional HF. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 4-4; AFC non-divisional home faves are 0-6 vs spread. Last four Patriot games went over total.

Rams (2-4) @ Chiefs (3-3)—Young Rams hit road after facing top two rivals at home last two games, upsetting Seattle last week; they’ve either won or had 14+-point lead in each of last five games. St Louis is 2-0 as road dogs this year, 11-7 as road dogs overall under Fisher, winning at Tampa, losing 34-28 at Philly in game they trailed 34-7. Chiefs split pair of home games, with dogs winning both SU; they’re 5-18-1 as home favorites since ’07, 2-6 under Reid. KC ran ball for 154+ yards in each of its wins; they’re 0-3 when rushing ball for less than that. Chiefs held San Diego to 251 yards in upset win last week. Road teams won six of last eight games in this intrastate series. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 2-4 vs spread; AFC West non-divisional home faves are 5-2. Last four Ram games went over total.

Seahawks (3-3) @ Panthers (3-3-1)—Defending champs lost last two games, allowing 58 points; they’ve allowed 28+ points in all three losses this year, are 1-2 on road, winning 27-17 in Washington, losing at San Diego/St Louis- they allowed 20 or less points in all three wins, but had terrible special teams game last week. Carolina is 1-3-1 in last five games after 2-0 start, with losses by 18-28-21 points; they’ve allowed 17 TD’s on foes’ last 43 drives. Seattle struggled but won on this field last two years, 16-12/12-7; Carolina scored 14 or less points in last five series games. Hawks are 6-4 in last ten games as road favorite, 1-2 this year. Panthers won two of three home games; they’re 5-5 as home dogs under Rivera. Carolina is 3-0-1 with positive turnover ratio; they’ve been -2/-1/-1 in their three losses.

Bills (4-3) @ Jets (1-6)—Home side won last five series games; Bills lost last four visits here, by 31-4-20-7 points. Buffalo turned ball over nine times (-7) in last two games, but pulled game out last week vs Vikings, when Orton threw TD pass with 0:01 left; he is major upgrade over younger Manuel. Orton led game-winning TD drive late in two of his three starts; Bills are 4-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 0-3 when they allow more. Jets lost last six games, giving up 24+ points in all six; they’ve also lost four of last five post-bye games. Gang Green has only three takeaways in seven games (-9); they ran ball for 218 yards in tough 27-25 loss last week in Foxboro and had extra three days to recover from that. Not sure if newly-acquired WR Harvin will play big role here or not. Six of seven Buffalo games stayed under total.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Jags got first win last week after getting first cover week before; they’re 7-20-1 as home underdog since ’10, 1-2 this year, but have played better since rookie QB Bortles became starter- they ran ball for 185 yards in win over Browns last week, winning field position (by 12 yards) for first time all year. Miami won last two road games by 24-13 points; win at Oakland was first in four tries as road favorite under Philbin. Miami ran ball for 137+ yards in four of six games. Over last three years, Jaguars are 2-6 vs spread in game following a win. Miami won 24-10/14-10 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-7 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional dogs are 5-5. Last three Jax games stayed under total; three of last four Miami games went over.

Texans (3-4) @ Titans (2-5)—Houston started 2-0 this year and last; other than those four games, they’re 1-18 in last 19—how long before they start playing Mallett at QB, seeing as they traded a draft pick for him? Road game here on short week for Texans after bizarre meltdown Monday night when they allowed 24 points in 2:54 after they led 13-0. Texans are 3-2 in last five visits here, 3-1 in last four series games overall. Houston lost last three games, all by 7 or less points; they’ve lost last three road games, including OT game at 6-1 Dallas. Texans covered once in last five games as road favorite. Titans’ last three games were decided by total of five points; they’re 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in divisional games.

Ravens (5-2) @ Bengals (3-2-1)—Rematch of Cincy’s 23-16 (+1.5) win in Week 1, when Bengals blew 15-0 lead, only to score winning TD on 77-yard pass to Green with 4:58 left; he had 131 receiving yards in that game, is expected back here after being hurt (toe), missing couple games. Teams split season series three of last four years- Ravens lost four of last five visits here. Cincy is 0-2-1 after 3-0 start and a bye; they’re 2-0-1 at home, winning by 14-26 points, tying Panthers. After allowing 33 points in first three games, they allowed 107 in next three. Baltimore won five of six games since Week 1 loss, with last three wins all by 22+ points; they’ve won two of three on road, losing 20-13 at 5-2 Indy. Ravens are 4-0 if they turn ball over less than two times; they won field position last two weeks by 16-11 yards.

Eagles (5-1) @ Cardinals (5-1)—Arizona is 3-0 at home, with wins over Chargers, 49ers; they’ve held opponents to 72.5 rushing yards/game despite having some injuries on defense. Redbirds are 4-2-1 as home favorites under Arians. Eagles won last two games before their bye; they’ve 13 offensive TD’s, seven more on defense/special teams this year. Philly split pair of road games that were decided by total of 8 points- they won 30-27 at Indy, lost 26-21 at 49ers. NFC East underdogs are 5-7-1 in non-divisional games, 3-3 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-5, 3-5 at home. Four of six Cardinal games stayed under total. Philly (-3.5) beat Arizona 24-21 in its post-bye game LY, that one was at home. Home coming game of sorts for Eagle QB Foles, who played college ball in Tucson for Arizona.

Colts (5-2) @ Steelers (4-3)—Over last 10+ years, Steelers are 6-1 as home underdogs, with only non-cover LY vs Bears in Week 3; Pitt on short week after comeback win Monday nite, when they scored 24 points in 2:54 after trailing 13-0 early. Steelers are 2-1 at home, with games decided by 3-3-7 points. Indy won five games in row since 0-2 start (lost to Denver/Philly); they’re 3-0 vs spread on road, losing by 7 at Denver, winning at Jax/Houston. Pitt won 11 of last `13 series games, but teams haven’t met since ’11, so this is Luck’s first series game. In their last two games, Steelers allowed 11.7/7.9 ypa to Browns/Texans, red flag going up against prolific Colt offense that averaged 7.6+ in four of last five games. Pitt allowed 26+ points in all three losses; Colts scored 26+ in five of last six games.

Raiders (0-6) @ Browns (3-3)—Despite all the optimism this fall, Browns are still in last place in NFC North, albeit with .500 record; they’ve won five of last seven games with Oakland, winning last two here by 6-14 points, but hard to lay lot of points with favorite whose wins are by 2-1-21 points- dogs covered four of their six games. Raiders are 0-6 but 1-0-1 vs spread as road dogs, losing by 5 at Jets, 7 in Foxboro- they also lost 38-14 to Miami on neutral London field. Browns are 4-0 vs spread when they’ve run ball for 122+ yards; only once in six games has Oakland held team under 116. Browns are 4-8-2 in last 14 games as home favorite; Raiders are 14-10-1 in last 25 games as road dog. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-1-1. AFC road underdogs are 6-1-1.

Packers (5-2) @ Saints (2-4)—Pack won last four games (3-0-1 vs spread), scoring 36.3 ppg with a +8 turnover ratio; both their losses came in only games on artificial turf, on which they’re 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games. Desperate Saints barfed up game in Detroit last week, blowing 23-10 lead with 3:45 left; they’re -8 in turnovers this year, with no games on plus side. No is 2-0 at home, but against QB’s Cassel, Glennon, not exactly Elway/Marino. Home side won five of last six games in this series, with average total of 62.7 in last seven series games. Pack lost last two visits here 35-20/51-29- their last win on Bourbon Street was in ’95. Since ’09, NO is 11-9-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points, 1-2 this year. Green Bay is 2-5-1 in last eight such games, 1-1-1 this season.

Redskins (2-5) @ Cowboys (6-1)—Trap game for red-hot Dallas, winners of last six games; they’re 8-3 in last 11 games vs rival Redskins, winning four of last five played here, but three of those four losses were by 3 or less points. Washington snapped 4-game skid last week; they’re 1-2 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 11-3-10 points- they’re 2-7 overall in last nine games as road dog. Cowboys won last six games (5-1 vs spread); they’re 5-11-1 as home favorites under Garrett, 1-1 this year- they scored 30+ points in four of last five games. Redskins covered in only one of their five losses, with four of five defeats by 10+ points. Four of last five Dallas games, four of last six Redskin games went over total. Coming into this week, over was 19-4 in primetime games this season.

**Udog** · 10-23-2014, 09:17 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 42)

Vikings’ poor protection vs. Former head coach Leslie Frazier

The Buccaneers will have an inside man when it comes to Sunday’s opponent, the Minnesota Vikings. New defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier served as the Vikes’ head coach for three seasons (fired last year), and while some see this matchup as an edge for Minnesota – having practiced against Frazier’s defense since 2010 – those people haven’t been paying attention to just how bad Minnesota’s pass protection is.

The Vikings have allowed the most sacks per play in the league and have watched opponents get to their quarterback 19 times in the last three contests, including five sacks allowed in last week’s crushing loss to the Bills.

On top of that, Minnesota has some injury issues on the offensive line, potentially leaving it with a shallow depth chart when it comes to pass protection. Frazier knows the Vikings’ personnel very well and will exploit any weakness he can find.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+5, 44.5)

Seahawks’ tight end troubles vs. Panthers’ TE Greg Olsen

The 12th Man is inches away from pushing the panic button after the seemingly-invincible Seahawks stumbled for the second straight week. Seattle, coming off a home loss to Dallas, stubbed its toe against St. Louis Sunday and now hit the road for a test against the Panthers.

While the Seahawks have a long list of issues coming off back-to-back losses, one area that has killed their defense is covering opposing tight ends. Seattle has allowed 12 receiving touchdowns heading into Week 8, eight of those coming at the hands of tight ends. The Seahawks gave up a TD to St. Louis TE Lance Kendricks last Sunday and two scores to Dallas TEs Jason Witten and Gavin Escobar the week before.

Enter Carolina TE Greg Olsen, who leads all tight ends with 493 yards receiving and has five touchdown catches on the year. That vulnerability to the TE is a big reason why Seattle is allowing an average of 2.2 red-zone scores per game, putting them in similar company as Oakland, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Atlanta.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, 49)

Colts’ up-tempo offense vs. Heinz Field’s crappy conditions

The Colts bring the NFL’s most productive offensive to the Steel City Sunday, averaging 30.9 points on 452.9 yards per game. Indianapolis is ripping through the offensive playbook at breakneck speed, averaging 76.9 plays per game – seven plays more than the next fastest team. However, the Colts haven’t had to stray too far from the perfect track inside Lucas Oil with four home games already, and road tilts inside at Houston and at lowly Jacksonville.

The one true road test came in Week 1 at Denver, where Indianapolis ran just 67 plays on offense and finished with only 24 points and two interceptions from Andrew Luck. Could it have been just Week 1 jitters or did the outdoor conditions slow down the Colts? We’ll find out when Luck & Co. take the terrible turf at Heinz Field – notorious for being the worst playing surface in the entire NFL.

Heinz Field can be a slick surface on the best of days but the shoddy sod is getting a workout this week. The Steelers hosted the Texans Monday, then the Pitt Panthers call Heinz Field home versus Georgia Tech (which does nothing but run and tear up turf) Saturday, before Pittsburgh welcomes Indianapolis Sunday. Three games in one week could make for some crappy conditions, and put a speed bump in front of the Colts’ up-tempo attack.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 56)

Packers’ fourth quarter scoring vs. Saints’ fourth quarter scoring

History tells us this Sunday nighter should be packed with plenty of offensive fireworks. The Packers and Saints have combined to score 272 points over their last four meetings – an average of 68 points per game. Green Bay enters as the top-scoring offense in the NFC the last three weeks, averaging 35.7 points per game in that span, but hasn't been able to finish games as strong as it starts them.

The Packers average only 3.3 points per fourth quarter on the season and have posted goose eggs in the final frame in two of their last four games, including last week’s blowout of Carolina. Some of that may have to do with Green Bay taking their foot off the gas in those one-sided wins, but Cheese Heads should be concerned – especially with New Orleans lighting up the scoreboard in the final 15 minutes.

The Saints average 9.8 points per fourth quarter – tops in the league – and have put up 16 points per second half over their last three contests. Two of those games came on the road, where New Orleans is a completely different team. After letting a win versus Detroit slip away late last Sunday, expect the Saints to finish strong against a Packers team fading in the fourth.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thursday, October 23 - Monday, October 27)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thursday, October 23 - Monday, October 27)

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