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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Tuesday, October 21 - Saturday, October 25)

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  • #16
    NCAAF

    Friday, October 24



    Defense the culprit for Boise State's over trend

    After opening the season with an over/under record of 1-2, Boise State has since gone over the total in every game. The big reason for their sudden surge of overs is the Broncos defense.

    Boise's defense allowed a mere 14 points per game through their first three contests, but that number has skyrocketed to 35.25 ppg over their last four.

    BYU will visit Boise dealing a current total of 58.


    Under trending when South Alabama takes field

    Though they have been doing it relatively quiet, the South Alabama Jaguars have been one of the hottest under plays in college football. Dating back to last season, the Jaguars have a 1-9-1 over/under record.

    The Jaguars have averaged a mere 25 points during that span, but the defense has only allowed 21 ppg during those 11 games.

    South Alabama will host Troy with the total set at 54.5.

    Comment


    • #17
      NCAAF

      Friday, October 24



      After rocky start, USF perfect versus the spread

      Since covering only once of their first three games, the USF Bulls have gone on to cover their last four in a row. The Bulls closed as the favorites and the dogs twice during those four games and have covered their games by an average of seven points.

      USF is currently a 10.5-point road dog against Cincinnati Friday.

      Comment


      • #18
        NCAAF
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Week 9


        Friday's games
        Troy is 1-6 after 53-14 home loss last week; longtime coach Blakeney is on his way out after 24 years. Trojans are 1-2 as road dogs; four of their six losses are by 17+ points. Troy beat South Alabama 34-33/31-10 last two years; USA had 630 TY in LY's loss. Favorites covered five of six Jaguar games; USA is 3-1 as favorite this year, winning by 10-24-26-3 points. Sun Belt home favorites are 6-9 vs spread in conference play.

        South Florida had scored 17 or less points five games in row before they rallied from 27-7 halftime deficit to win 38-30 at Tulsa last week. USF is 6-1 as road dogs under Taggart, 2-0 this year. Cincinnati had allowed an average of 48.3 ppg in losing previous three games before 41-3 win last week at SMU. Underdogs covered seven of last nine USF games, three of last five here. AAC home favorites are 4-7 vs spread in conference play.

        Home side won last two BYU-Boise games; Cougars lost 7-6 in last visit here, thanks to -5 turnover ratio. BYU lost QB Hill for year; they've lost last three games, allowing 36 ppg, with two of those three at home. BYU is 6-2 in last eight games as a road dog. Mountain West non-conference favorites are 3-4 vs spread, 2-2 at home. Boise State scored 88 points in winning its last two games- they're 2-1 as home favorites this season.

        Oregon won last five games with Cal, covering last three (average score of 53-16 in last three); Ducks scored 87 points in winning their last two games- they're 1-1 as road favorites, winning by 7/12 at Wazzu/UCLA while allowing 30.5 ppg. This game is at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, where 49ers play; Cal territory, but not in Berkeley. Four of last five Cal games were decided by 4 or less points, but Bears allowed 46.2 ppg in those five games- they're 4-0 as an underdog this season.

        Saturday's games
        Top games of week

        South Carolina is 1-5 vs spread this season, 0-2 on road, splitting pair of road games, winning 48-34 (-21) at Vandy, losing 45-38 at Kentucky (-4) Gamecocks are 15-10-1 as road underdogs under Spurrier. Auburn is 7-3 as home favorite under Malzahn, 3-1 this year; since '08, Tigers are 9-15 in game following a bye. Four of five Auburn wins this year are by 24+ points. Carolina allowed 450 rushing yards in last two games; even I-AA Furman ran it for 211 against them.

        Last time Miss State played on road (Sept 20) they were unranked; now they're #1 in country, unchartered territory which means every team will bring their best game against them. State allowed 27.7 ppg in last three games- they're 3-1 as favorites this year. SEC home underdogs are 6-4 in conference play. Kentucky was 5-1 before losing 41-3 at LSU last week; they're 2-6-2 in last ten games as a home dog, 7-10-1 last 18 games that followed a loss.

        UCLA won its three Pac-12 meetings with Colorado by average score of 49-14; Bruins are 1-6 vs spread this season, 1-2 as road favorites, with wins by 8-35-2 points on foreign soil- they allowed 30-42-34 points in last three games. Colorado is 3-1 as underdog this year, covering both its games as home dog, losing to ASU by 14, Oregon State by 5. Pac-12 home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in conference games this years. Buffs gave up seven TD passes to USC's Kessler last week.

        Oregon State is 19-7 vs spread in its last 26 games as road dogs, 0-1 this year (lost 35-10 at USC); only twice in its last 16 games with Stanford have Beavers lost by more than 8 points. OSU lost its last four games vs Stanford (1-3 vs spread)- they lost last three visits to Farm by 4-38-8 points. Cardinal lost two of last three games, scored 20 or less points in three of last four- they're 20-16 in last 36 games as home favorite, 2-1 so far this season.

        Lane Kiffin returns to Knoxville (he coached Tennessee to 7-6 record in 2009, then bolted to USC) as Alabama's OC; Crimson Tide won 59-0 at home over Texas A&M last week, but scored 17-14 points in previous two games- they're 2-1 on road this season, winning by 1-10 points with loss at Ole Miss. Young Vols lost last four I-A games, scoring 9-3 in last two; they're 3-10 in last 13 games as a home dog. Bama ran ball for total of only 234 yards in two road games.

        Michigan State won five of last six games with Michigan, with four of five wins by 14+ points; favorites are 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Wolverines lost last three visits here, by 23-14-6 points; faves are 4-1-1 in their last six trips to East Lansing. Michigan lost three of its last four games- they gained total of 256 yards in 18-13 win over Penn State last week and covered once in last six games. Oregon/Nebraska are only two teams to hold Michigan State under 45 points this year.

        Ole Miss covered its last nine visits to LSU, but lost five of last six SU, with all five losses by 7 or less points. LSU is 9-3 SU in last 12 series games, scoring 41+ in last four series wins. Rebels are 7-0 with one win by less than 15 points (Bama 23-17); they've won at Vandy/A&M, are 4-0-1 as favorites this year. LSU scored 71 points in winning last couple games since 41-7 loss at Auburn; Tigers are 2-2 as home underdog under Miles- they completed less than half their passes in last three games.

        Arizona won five of its last six games with Washington State; underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 series games. Wildcats won last three trips to Pullman by 17-31-10 points, but they failed to cover last three tries as a road favorite at Wazzu. Coogs are off bye after losing three of previous four games, allowing 34+ points in all three- they scored 31+ points in three of their five losses. Arizona is 5-1 but their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points-- dogs covered all five of those games.

        USC won its last three games with Utah by 16-10-9 points; Trojans are 2-1 on road this season, with all three games decided by 6 or less points (underdogs 3-0 vs spread). Utah is 5-1, winning its last two games by a total of eight points; they're back to Wilson at QB this week-- curious that they scored 26+ points in every game while being undecided at QB. Teams that beat USC scored 37-38 points; Since 2012, Trojans are 1-9 vs spread when giving points on the road.

        West Virginia gave Baylor its first loss LW; home team won both their games with Oklahoma State, with Cowboys winning 55-34 here couple years ago. WVU won 30-21 at home LY. OSU QB Walsh is out for year; they're 27-56 passing in last two games, but both were on road. West Virginia won both its true road games by FG, scoring 40-37 points; they gained 456+ yards in each of last six games. State is 16-6-1 vs spread in last 23 home games, 2-1 this year.

        Keep in mind Kansas State's gutty QB Waters dinged his shoulder last week at Oklahoma; he finished game but wasn't 100%. Wildcats are 5-1 in last six games with Texas, with three of last four wins by 18+ points. Longhorns lost last three visits to Little Apple by 18-25-3. Texas is 3-4; its last two games were decided by total of 8 points- they won 23-0 at Kansas (-12) in their only true road game. K-State covered its last four games- they won last three, scoring 44.7 ppg.

        Ohio State won/covered its last four games, scoring 50+ points in every game; Buckeyes won 52-24 (-7) at Maryland in its only true away game. Penn State scored total of 19 points in losing its last two games; since '06, they're 2-4-1 as home underdogs. OSU assistant coach Johnson was longtime aide at Penn State. Big 14 home underdogs are 3-4 vs spread in conference games. Penn State ran ball for 64 or less yards in four of six games; Akron/UMass are only teams they ran ball for 100+ against.

        Arizona State QB Kelly's foot is said to be OK; he should play here after backup Bercovici did yeoman work in 2+ games as backup. ASU is 3-0 on road, scoring 44.7 ppg, allowing 27 ppg. Sun Devils won eight in row vs Washington, covering all eight (were favored in 7 of 8). Huskies allowed 314 rushing yards in LY's game. ASU beat USC/Stanford in last two games; they had allowed 200+ rushing yards in four straight games before holding Cardinal to 76 in last game.

        Notes on rest of the card
        -- Northern Illinois is 12-1 in last 13 games with Eastern Michigan, winning last six meetings (5-1 vs spread). Eagles are 7-13 in their last 20 games as a home underdog.
        -- Clemson is 5-2 but its last two wins are by total of 10 points; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as home favorites. Syracuse won both its road games this year but was favored in both games- they're 4-6 as underdogs under Shafer. .
        -- Underdogs covered four of last five Minnesota-Illinois games, with Gophers winning nine of last 12, including last four in Champaign, by 14-4-7-26 points.
        -- Favorites covered six of last eight Akron-Ball State games, with Cardinals winning last four games, taking last two here 37-30/23-17. This is Akron’s last Saturday game; their last four games are all on Tuesdays.

        -- Central Michigan-Buffalo haven’t met since '09; Chippewas split four road games but lost as 10-point home favorites last week. Buffalo is 1-4 vs I-A teams despite scoring 31.4 ppg in those games; they’ve already fired their coach.
        -- Western Michigan won three of last four games with Ohio, with wins by 21-7-13 points; Bobcats lost 41-20/23-10 in last two trips to WMU- they lost last three road games, by 17-30-18 points.
        -- Favorites covered four of last five BC-Wake games, with Deacons winning two of last three. Last eight series spreads before this game had all been 6 or less points. Wake covered two of last three as a home dog vs BC.
        -- UCF outgained Temple 657-519 in wild 39-36 win LY in Philly, last-minute win propelled UCF QB Bortles up NFL draft boards. Temple allowed total of 41 points in its four wins; they allowed 31 in each of their two losses.

        -- Lot of distractions at North Carolina with the academic scandal becoming more public. Tar Heels won/covered last four games with Virginia by average score of 38-14, winning last two here 37-13/44-10. UNC allowed 43+ points in four of last five games (34 in fifth).
        -- Pitt (+10.5) lost 21-10 at Georgia Tech LY, with Tech running for 276 yards; Panthers snapped 3-game skid with win over Va Tech last week, but they lost last two home games, to Akron/Iowa.
        -- Maryland is 3-0 SU on road this year; they allowed 83 points in last two games, both at home. Terps are 10-7 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Wisconsin is 7-3 as home favorite under Anderson, 1-2 this year.
        -- Vanderbilt is starting its 4th different QB this season vs Missouri; a freshman this time. Underdogs covered six of seven Vandy games this year; Commodores are 3-1 as an underdog, all getting double digit points.

        Comment


        • #19
          NCAAF

          Saturday, October 25



          Kentucky struggling on offense, host Miss. State

          Needless to say, the Kentucky Wildcats have their hands full when they host the No. 1 Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday, but there's one trend that's particularly not working in their favor.

          The Wildcats have averaged just 5.1 yards per play while mustering a 35.16 third down conversion percentage so far this season.

          Mississippi State is currently 14.5-point road faves with a total of 59.


          It's a tale of two halves for Michigan State

          Michigan State has made a habit of coming out of the gate on fire this season but letting their feet off the gas peddle as each contest progresses.

          No team in the nation is averaging more points in the first half than the Spartans (30.7), but in the second half they're averaging just 16.7 points.

          Michigan State hosts arch rival Michigan in Week 9 college football action Saturday, and are currently 17-point home faves with an O/U of 48.5 for the matchup.


          Penalties have been killing Texas Tech

          The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been hurting themselves all season long, evidenced by their ranking as the second most penalized team in the country.

          The Red Raiders have 71 penalties which equates for 648 yards. Texas Tech takes on Texas Christian in Fort Worth Saturday.

          The No. 10 Horned Frogs are currently 22.5-point home faves with an O/U of 71.5.


          Washington State heavily relying on the pass

          When you face off against Washington State, you're already aware of what to expect - a lot of action through the air.

          The Cougars have thrown the ball 78 percent of the time this season, accumulating 489 passing yards per game in the process. Both are good enough for tops in the nation.

          Washington state plays host to No. 14 Arizona Saturday. The Sun Devils are presently 3-point road faves with the total set at 61 for the contest.


          Injuries forcing adjustments to Clemson's gameplan

          The injury bug has hit Clemson hard this year, and as a result, they've had to make quite a few unexpected changes to their gameplan.

          "It's just one of those years," said offensive coordinator Chad Morris. "It's been two weeks in a row now that during the first two drives of the game, you essentially lose a big part of your plan."

          "So, you kind of scramble, adjust and make do," Morris said.

          The No. 20 Tigers host Syracuse Saturday, and are currently 14.5-point home favorites for the matchup. The total is presently sitting at 47.5.

          Comment


          • #20
            College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 9

            Looking to wager on the elite teams in college football this weekend? Don't have time to handicap every Top 25 matchup? Put your mind at ease and just cheat - with our NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet featuring all of Week 9's biggest games.

            Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (16) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20)
            *Rutgers allowed J.T. Barrett to amass 368 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns last week. The No.98 defense will need to adjust quickly for Tommy Armstrong who has thrown for 1546 yards while adding 482 on the ground.

            *An effective run game has been the key to ensuring Nebraska's success since Bo Pelini's takeover of the program. During Pelini's tenure the Cornhuskers are 18-0 when they rush for 300 or more yards do. Nebraska is averaging 293.6 ypg this season.


            (24) Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini (+5.5)
            *Despite allowing a season-high 38 points last week, Minnesota still ranks tied for 29th in the FBS with 21.4 points surrendered per contest and is tied for seventh in total takeaways with 18, including a Big Ten-leading 11 interceptions.

            *If there is one thing Illinois does well, it's create big plays. The Fighting Illini have tallied 43 plays of 20 or more yards from scrimmage this season, while vaulting themselves into No.20 in the nation for 30 plus yard plays.


            Texas Longhorns at (11) Kansas State Wildcats (-9.5)
            *Despite getting torched by Iowa State, the Longhorns defense still ranks No.5 in passing defense and No.10 in yards allowed per play nationally.

            *Even though the Wildcats offensive line may not have kept Jake Waters off of his back, the line played well last week. "What I was pleased with is that we only had one penalty," coach Bill Snyder says. " In reality, they were not penalized and being in that environment down there with so much noise, it is easy to get discombobulated with the cadence and snap counts and communication."


            (25) West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys (Pick'em)
            *WVU WR Kevin White has a school-record seven straight games of 100 or more receiving yards, the longest active streak in the nation.

            *Through seven games, opposing offenses have reached the red zone 25 times against Oklahoma State, but they have only converted 10 of those trips into touchdowns. That ranks second in the Big 12 and 12th nationally.


            Florida Atlantic Owls at (22) Marshall Thundering Herd (-28)
            *The Owls have been a different team away from home this season. FAU is 3-0 at home and has outscored opponents by 40 points (13.3 ppg), compared to going 0-4 on the road and being blown out by 118 points (28.5 ppg).

            *No team in the nation has been pummeling opponents quite like Marshall. The Thundering Herd is beating opponents by an average margin if 29.2 ppg, which is tops in the country.


            (1) Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (+14.5)
            *Dan Mullen seems happy to have gotten a bye week when they did. "It is not about one game. It is the cumulative effect of playing in [the SEC]," says the coach. "I think our guys took advantage of the bye week, because they know now we have to play six straight to end the season."

            *If the Wildcats want to compete with the nations top team, they will need to improve an offense that averages a poor 5.1 ypp and 35.16 third down conversion percentage.


            Michigan Wolverines at (5) Michigan State Spartans (-17)
            *After getting beaten up by the Spartans last year, the Wolverines know they need to fix things. "Those negative rushing yards last year [at MSU] weren't just on Devin [Gardner]," Brady Hoke says. "When a guy gets sacked, you're turning some people loose. And also, he's got to get rid of the ball. There's a rhythm to it."

            *The Spartans have been coming out to quick leads and coasting in the second half of games. No team is averaging more points in the first half than Michigan State (30.7), but in the second half the team is tallying 16.7 points.


            Texas Tech Red Raiders at (10) TCU Horned Frogs (-22.5)
            *Discipline has not been the Red Raiders strong suit as they are the second most penalized team in the nation. So far this season, Texas Tech has 71 penalties for 648 yards.

            *Under new co-coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie, TCU has the nation's most improved offense in both total yards (+192.9 ypg) and scoring (+20.1 ppg) from last season.


            (15) Arizona Wildcats at Washington State Cougars (+2.5)
            *"They will run it just enough to keep you honest and they did against us last year," Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez says about Washington State. " They will throw the ball to any one of the guys on any part of the field; they will throw it deep, short, back or on whatever down it is."

            *When you face the Cougars you certainly know what you are getting. The Cougars throw the ball 78.04 percent of the time while accumulating 490.0 passing ypg, both tops in the nation.


            Syracuse Orange at (20) Clemson Tigers (-14.5)
            *The Orange, who are playing in the state of South Carolina for the first time in school history, lost to the Tigers 49-14 at the Carrier Dome last season in the first ever meeting between the programs.

            *The injury bug has hit Clemson hard this year and has caused some change ups in their game plan. "“It’s just one of those years,” offensive coordinator Chad Morris said. "Two weeks in a row now that the first two drives of the game you essentially lose a big part of your plan. “So, you kind of scramble, adjust and make do.”


            (4) Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers (+17.5)
            *Since the start of the 2007 season, when coach Nick Saban arrived, the Crimson Tide have held opponents to 10 points or fewer 51 times.

            *Only two teams in the nation have allowed more sacks per game than the Volunteers who have watched their quarterback hit the turf 4.2 times per game.


            (3) Ole Miss Rebels at (23) LSU Tigers (+3.5)
            *If you're talking about dominant defense this season, you must be talking about Ole Miss. The Rebels lead the nation in scoring defense (10.6 ppg) touchdowns allowed (seven) and interceptions (15).

            *LSU will return home for the first time in almost a month for their biggest game this year. "After talking to several old-timers about it, I think Tiger Stadium is going to be louder than ever on Saturday," said LSU football legend Jerry Stovall.


            South Carolina Gamecocks at (6) Auburn Tigers (-19.5)
            *The defensive line was expected to dip a bit for the Gamecocks with the loss of Jadevon Clowney, but it's been injuries that has made the group ineffective. "Right now it's open," said South Carolina defensive line coach Deke Adams. "We're going to see who has the best week of practice."

            *Auburn may be getting a key piece of their defense back after S Jermaine Whitehead was reinstated to the team. The senior has been a three year starter for the Tigers, but was suspended for undisclosed reasons earlier this season.


            (12) Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (+13.5)
            *Ohio State has scored at least 50 points in four consecutive games which is a program record. You can thank J.T. Barrett who has thrown for 17 touchdowns and one interception during that span.

            *No team in the nation is better than Penn State at shutting down the run game. Through six games, teams have only averaged 60.8 rushing yards and one touchdown per game against the Nittany Lions.


            (21) USC Trojans at (19) Utah Utes (Pick'em)
            *Injuries have been hitting the Trojans hard this season, but maybe none hurt more than Adoree Jackson. An injured hip flexor has limited Jackson in the past two games, who is both a starting cornerback, one of their better receivers and their punt returner.

            *If there is one thing the Utes can do, it's get after the passer. Utah sacks the opposing quarterback on 12.72 percent of snaps, which is almost a full point ahead of second in the nation.


            (14) Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington Huskies (+3)
            *The Sun Devils are boasting a quick strike offense, that points to them not needing possession. Arizona State is averaging 37.4 ppg (No.17 in nation), but have the lowest average possession time per game (21:25).

            *The Huskies have not been ignoring the special teams game this season. Washington opponents have had just eight punt return yards on six returns this season for an average of 1.33 yards per return.

            Comment


            • #21
              NCAAF

              Saturday, October 25



              Vols allowing ugly number of sacks this season

              The Tennessee Volunteers haven't been doing any favors for their quarterback Justin Worley.

              Only two teams in the nation have allowed more sacks per game than the Vols, who have watched Worley hit the turf 4.2 times per game in the campaign.

              Tennessee hosts No. 4 Alabama Saturday. The Crimson Tide are currently 17.5-point road faves with a total of 46.5.


              Ole Miss keeps dominating on D

              The Ole Miss Rebels are ranked third in the nation heading into Week 9, and a big factor in getting them that far has been their defense.

              The Rebels lead the country in scoring defense (10.6 points per game), touchdowns allowed (seven) and interceptions (15).

              Mississippi travels to Baton Rouge for a date with the No. 23 Louisiana State Tigers Saturday.

              The Tigers are currently 3.5-point home dogs with an O/U of 45.

              Comment


              • #22
                Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

                After a crazy day of college football last Saturday, Week 9 takes a step back with only a few marquee matchups on the board. That hasn’t slowed down betting online or in Nevada, where bookmakers are constantly juggling their lines.

                We talk with Scott Kaminsky at TheGreek.com about the biggest line moves on Saturday’s college football slate:

                UAB Blazers at Arkansas Razorbacks – Open: -21.5, Move: -27

                Money has moved the line for this noon ET kickoff as many as 5.5 points since opening Sunday night. A concussion suffered by UAB quarterback Cody Clements has bettors siding with the Hogs in this non-conference clash. Clements, a dangerous dual-threat transfer from Washington State, is listed as doubtful for Week 9.

                “Knowing the UAB quarterback was worth about four points, we took the game off the board and wanted to wait and see if we got some more information,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “About 15 minutes after we did that, the line shot up to 23.5 and 24.5 at other places. We rehung it at 23.5 and moved to -27 Arkansas. We moved it really fast so there isn’t a lot of money at those lower numbers.”


                Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Nebraska Cornhuskers – Open: -17, Move: -20

                This Big Ten battle has jumped a full field goal since opening at -17 in favor of the home side. Rutgers is coming off a one-sided loss to Ohio State and hits the road for a date in Lincoln, still one of the toughest venues in college football.

                “Smart money came in and we moved to -20 yesterday,” says Kaminsky. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this game continued to climb after what happened to Rutgers last week. It seemed like Ohio State scored on almost every possession.”


                West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys – Open: -3, Move: Pick

                This spread is about to jump the fence will nothing but underdog money coming in on WVU. The Mountaineers turned heads with a win over Baylor last week while Okie State laid an egg versus TCU. The line opened with the Pokes as field-goal faves in Stillwater, but WVU action has this line at a pick’em in some markets.

                “It’s been all dog money, and rightfully so,” says Kaminsky. “West Virginia had put up more than 500 yards of offense in five straight games then beat Baylor convincingly. Not surprising money came in on West Virginia and it’s a definite possibly WVU ends up the favorite before this is done moving.”


                Central Michigan Chippewas at Buffalo Bulls – Open: +3.5, Move: +6

                Depending on where you bet, online or Las Vegas, you could be getting CMU -5 or -6 respectively. Buffalo is coming off two losses, allowing a combined 73 points in those games.

                “We opened Central Michigan -3.5 and got hit a couple times on the favorite, so we moved to -5,” says Kaminsky. “These MAC games, it always seems like neither team can stop each other and they just go up and down the field.”


                USC Trojans at Utah Utes – Open: +2.5, Move: -1

                Utah has been a favorite of the wiseguys all season and Week 9 is no exception. Sharp money hit the Utes hard in this home stand, pushing the spread across the fence and currently has Utah favored at home at some books. Others are standing on pick as kickoff draws closer.

                “It’s been all dog money,” says Kaminsky. “(Utah has) played very well this season. They won at Oregon State last week, beat Michigan, and beat UCLA in UCLA which is a huge win. They have a good offense and can put point up on the board. Got to wonder when the last time was that they played USC as the favorite?”

                Our records go back to 1993, and the Utes were never the chalk versus Southern Cal in any of their previous five meetings. Utah is 3-2 ATS in that span.

                Comment


                • #23
                  NCAAF

                  Saturday, October 25


                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Game of the Day: Ole Miss at LSU
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  Ole Miss Rebels at LSU Tigers (+3.5, 45)

                  Mississippi's dream season rolls into Baton Rouge, La., on Saturday as the third-ranked Rebels face a tough road test at No. 23 LSU. The Rebels are off to their best start since 1962 and are aiming for only the second 8-0 start in program history. Meanwhile, LSU has knocked off at least one top-10 opponent at Tiger Stadium in each of the past four seasons and has chances to do so each of the next two games with No. 4 Alabama visiting on Nov. 8.

                  The Rebels have beaten ranked opponents two of the past three weeks and face another big hurdle in the Tigers, who have won two straight since a 41-7 loss at Auburn and are coming off a 41-3 thrashing of Kentucky. "The last two weeks they've gotten back to doing their bread and butter," Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said of LSU. "That's physical, control the clock. They're able to run the football with the outstanding backs that they have." LSU has won nine of the last 12 meetings but lost 27-24 last season in Oxford; Ole Miss has won two straight in the series only once since 1999.

                  TV:
                  7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Mississippi -3.5.

                  LINE HISTORY:
                  The opening line had LSU spotted three points, before climbing to LSU +3.5 where it currently sits. The total opened at 44, but quickly jumped to 45.

                  INJURY REPORT:
                  Ole Miss - WR Laquon Treadwell (Prob-Shoulder), OL Ben Still (Ques-Knee), OL Aaron Morris (Prob-Ankle) LSU - N/A

                  WEATHER FORECAST:
                  Death Valley will be a perfect place for a football game Saturday. There will be no clouds, minimal wind and temperatures around 65°F.

                  ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (7-0, 4-0 SEC):
                  Ole Miss boasts the nation's top scoring defense, allowing 10.6 points per game, and the defense has scored almost as many TDs (4) as it has allowed (6). The Rebels have forced a whopping 20 turnovers, including a nation-best 15 interceptions, and will try to exploit LSU's young quarterback duo. The offense is a little more understated, but quarterback Bo Wallace — often noted for his up-and-down play — has been outstanding, racking up 1,899 passing yards with 17 TDs against six interceptions.

                  ABOUT LSU (6-2, 2-2):
                  The Tigers' defense had struggled in SEC play before turning in a dominant effort last week, holding Kentucky to 217 total yards and three points. The offense has put up 28 or more points in seven of eight games despite sometimes inconsistent quarterback play, with sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris splitting time under center. Both quarterbacks have a strong running game to lean on and a big-play receiver in Travin Dural, who averages 25.6 yards per catch and has hauled in seven TDs.

                  TRENDS:

                  *Rebels are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Louisiana State.
                  *Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games following a S.U. win.
                  *Under is 6-0 in Rebels last 6 road games.
                  *Underdog is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

                  CONSENSUS:
                  Fifty-seven percent of Consensus wagers are currently on Ole Miss.


                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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                  • #24
                    NCAAF

                    Saturday, October 25



                    Saturday's college football weather update

                    With a full slate of Week 9 college football action on tap Saturday, here's a look at a few stadiums that could be affected by high winds.

                    The all-Michigan contest between the Spartans and the Wolverines could see Northwest winds from 10-15 mph.

                    Arizona and Washington State's clash is expected to see southeast gusts from 10-15 mph. There is a 30 percent chance of showers for affair.

                    Western winds from 10-20 mph could affect Central Michigan and SUNY-Buffalo's meeting in the Empire State.

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                    • #25
                      Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

                      College football knowledge to ponder with Week 8 upon us.........

                      -- Michigan State won five of last six games with Michigan, with four of five wins by 14+ points; favorites are 5-2-1 in last eight series games.

                      -- Tennessee 3-10 in its last 13 games as a home underdog.

                      -- Last time Miss State played on road (Sept 20) they were unranked; now they're #1 in country. Curious to see how they play.

                      -- Oregon State is 19-7 vs spread in its last 26 games as road dogs

                      -- Since 2012, USC is 1-9 vs spread when giving points on the road.

                      -- Arizona won five of its last six games with Washington State; underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 series games.

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                      • #26
                        NCAAF

                        Saturday, October 25



                        UNC’s Elijah Hood again listed as doubtful

                        For the second consecutive game, it appears North Carolina will be sans one of the most productive members of its backfield. On its weekly injury report, UNC lists running back Elijah Hood as doubtful for Saturday’s game against Virginia. Thus far, the nature of Hood’s injury hasn’t been disclosed.


                        Navy seeking to keep perfect under record alive

                        Even though they have been mediocre on the field and worst against the spread, Navy has been money for totals this season. All six of Navy's games this season have gone under, one of only three teams to yet to go over in the nation.

                        The six games that had totals lines listed for Navy, last week's versus Virginia Military did not, they have scored an average of 25 ppg (no.86) while allowing 31 (no.84).

                        Navy hosts San Jose State with a current total of 53.5.


                        Georgia Southern a fantastic spread play

                        Inter-state rivals Georgia Southern and Georgia State square off Saturday in Atlanta, and for one team, covering the spread hasn't been an issue at all.

                        The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

                        Georgia Southern is currently listed as 17.5-point home favorites with an O/U of of 68.5.


                        Close games dictating UNC and Virginia's season

                        So far this season close victories have defined North Carolina, while Virginia has been dictated by tight losses.

                        The Tar Heels have won two games this season against credible talent, with a third win versus Liberty which is an outlier, by a combined nine points. Conversely, all three of the Cavaliers' looses have come by eight points or less.

                        Virginia is currently 6.5-point home favorites Saturday.


                        Massachusetts cashing tickets for Over backers

                        Massachusetts has made a habit of going Over the total lately. The Over/Under is 5-1-1 in the Minutemen's last seven games.

                        Toledo and Massachusetts face off Saturday in Glass Bowl Stadium.

                        The Rockets are presently -17 home faves. The total for the contest is sitting at 71.


                        Nebraska proving dominance on field and the window

                        It has been a great year for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Aside from being 6-1 SU and fielding a true Heisman candidate, the Huskers are also an astounding 6-1 against the spread.

                        Nebraska has covered their game by an average of 13 points per games. The Huskers only failure to cover was when they were a massive -35 point favorite.

                        The Cornhuskers host Rutgers as 20.5-point faves.


                        Kansas State covering with ease in recent games

                        After No. 11 Kansas State covered in Week 8 versus Oklahoma, it marked four straight contests the Wildcats covered the spread.

                        Kansas State takes on Texas in the Lone Star State Saturday.

                        The Wildcats are currently 9.5-point home faves. The total is presently set at 48.5.


                        Huskies covering in matchups vs. Eastern Michigan

                        When Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan get together, it's the Huskies that have been covering, going 5-1 in the last six meetings between the two schools.

                        The Eagles host Northern Illinois Saturday.

                        The Huskies are currently 20.5-point road favorites with a total of 61.5


                        Alabama-Birmingham going Over on the road

                        Alabama-Birmingham has been participating in a lot of high-scoring games on the road, evidenced by the Over going 5-1 in their last six games away from home.

                        The Blazers travel to Fayetteville for a matchup with the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday.

                        Arkansas is currently 27-point home faves with a total of 65.5 for the matchup.


                        SMU needs to tighten rushing defense to win

                        There is a case to be made that the SMU Mustangs are the worst team in the nation, but if they want to tally their first win they will need to tighten their rushing defense. The Mustangs have allowed 241.7 rushing yards per game, No. 115 in the nation.

                        SMU will be facing a Memphis team that is averaging an AAC leading 174.4 yards on the ground per game.

                        The Mustangs are currently 23-point home dogs against the Tigers.


                        Wisconsin struggling mightily ATS

                        The Wisconsin Badgers have been a very poor spread play lately, going just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

                        The Badgers host Maryland in Week 9 college football action Saturday.

                        Wisconsin is currently 10.5-point home faves with an Over/Under of 57.5.


                        Over bettors profiting in North Texas matchups

                        If you've been backing the Over in recent North Texas games, you've been collecting some nice profits.

                        The Over is 5-1 in the Mean Green's last six matchups. They'll take on Rice Saturday in Houston.

                        The Owls are presently 14-point home faves with an O/U of 57 for the contest.


                        Two quarterback system expected for Illinois

                        Since Wes Lunt went down, Illinois has been struggling to find who should be leading their team. In leiu of selecting a specific quarterback, the Illini have decided to run a two quarterback system with both Reilly O'Toole and Aaron Bailey get first teams snaps in practice this week.

                        O'Toole has been taking majority of the snaps since Lunt's injury but has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3). Bailey has only attempted five passes this season but has managed to throw an interception.

                        Illinois plays host to Minnesota as 5.5-point dogs.

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