NFL Week 8

[roccodean]

1* Chic +7

2* TB -2.5 (buy half -120)

1* KC/Rams over 43.5

[jcindaville]

Good luck Rock!

[roccodean]

The computer algorithm I developed in off season starts coming into play this week. See post from before season for more details. Will be having more plays, esp totals.

1* 6 point tease: Den -1.5/KC -0.5

1* Det/Atl under 47

1* Seat/Car over 44.5

1* Balt/cin under 46

[jcindaville]

Rock

What's your record so far, just curious

[roccodean]

Rock

What's your record so far, just curious

14-16 -1.1 units

[BettorsChat]

Rocco how about a shout out for Bettorschat on your twitter feed?

Dave T had a bunch of trends from a system he used.

Also good luck on your plays!

[jcindaville]

14-16 -1.1 units

Thanks Roc

Let's drill em this week!

[roccodean]

1* 1st half under 28 Den/SD

[roccodean]

Rocco how about a shout out for Bettorschat on your twitter feed?

Dave T had a bunch of trends from a system he used.

Also good luck on your plays!

will do
what trends from Dave T are you referring to ?

[bigdog237]

good luck this week rocco

[moondog22]

thanks rocco,good luck

[roccodean]

2* TB over Minnesota

2* at -2.5 or better

1* at -3
Tampa is in a GREAT spot here and I will back them to beat the Vikes. They are coming off a bye and the week prior they lost 48-17 at home to the Ravens. I love backing teams that got crushed before their bye. This actually puts them on a trend that is 18-4 ATS over the last 11 years. Minnesota is dead last in passing offense efficiency (and 31st in YPPA) and Tampa is pretty good at stopping the run (11th in pass efficiency D). Defensively, the Vikes are 27th vs the run and 14th vs the pass. My calculated line is right on the money in this game (TB-2.5). I think there is a misconception that every game you wager on needs to have "value". In the NFL, the lines are often accurate and you have to take advantage of situations.






1* 6 Point tease: Denver -1.5/KC -0.5

Denver:

Denver's defense has been lights out this year; they are 4th vs the run and 3rd vs the pass (efficiency rating). Although Rivers is having a very good year, the Charger's offense that is poor running the ball (27th). Conversely, the Chargers defense is 19th vs the run and 23rd vs the pass. SD has been extremely lucky this year regarding turnovers (+5 on fumbles) and have faced the 3rd easiest schedule thus far. I think the Broncos win this but SD has been good at keeping Manning off the field and controlling TOP so I will opt to tease.

KC:

This is a horrible scheduling spot for the Rams coming off SF and then an upset win over a division rival (Seattle) and having to face SF and Arizona in next two weeks. KC has been underrated all year, but the market is catching up to them and I think -7 is the correct line (hence the tease). The Rams pass D is dead last in efficiency and 29th in YPPA, so KC should have no issues scoring.



1* Chicago +7 over NE (Posted Monday)

I think all this "turmoil" in the Bear's locker room has lead to an under value on the Bears. I don't buy too much into it and I think it may actually light a fire under their behinds and get them to play better. I still think the Pats are a slightly above average team. They are 31st in rushing efficiency (26th in YPR), 23rd in stopping the run, and 12th in stopping the pass. Their strength is obviously Brady and the passing game that is 7th in effic., but the Bears pass D isn't bad (14th in efficiency). The Bear's run game is strong (7th) and will exploit a NE defense that is banged up. The Pats lost Mayo, the QB of their D, and it showed last week when they gave up 423 yards to the lowly Jets. Now, they will be playing without defensive end Chandler Jones....not good. My calculated line is NE -5. The Pats have benefited from tremendous fumble luck (+4) and an easy schedule (27th). After the KC game everyone was writing the Pats off, then they beat Cinci (a win that doesn't look that good now), Buff (below average team), and the Jets (bottom tier team) and they are supposed to be back...I'm not buying it.

[KazDog]

Good luck this weekend Rocky!

[roccodean]

thanks

couple upgrades
(1-5*):2* TB -2.5 (1* at -3), 1* Tease Den-1.5/KC -0.5, Chicago +7,1* KC OV 43,1*Seat OV 44.5,2*Det Und 47, 2*Bal Und 46.

[KazDog]

You really like that TB play? Is that your highest rating?