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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 7
Bengals (3-1-1) @ Colts (4-2)— Home side won eight of last nine series games, including last five in row; Bengals lost last six visits here, with all six by 6+ points, four of six by 13+ points, but they did beat Colts 42-28 at home LY. Cincy is 0-1-1 since its bye after a 3-0 start; they missed 36-yard FG to win on last play of OT last week, almost overcoming 116 penalty yards by converting 10-16 on third down. Indy won four in row after 0-2 start, scoring 38+ points in three of four games; they’re 30 for 50 on third down in last four games (8 of 25 in first two). Indy is 7-6 as home favorite under Pagano, 2-1 this year. Bengals are 7-3-2 vs spread in last dozen games as a road underdog. Four of last five Colt games went over the total.
Titans (2-4) @ Redskins (1-5)—Both teams struggling badly; Titans snapped 4-game skid last week with 16-14 win over winless Jags- their last two games were decided by total of three points. Tennessee lost last two road games by combined score of 74-24. Redskins lost last four games, allowing 34.8 ppg; they’ve lost field position in last three games by 25-18-15 yards- four of their five losses are by 10+ points. Home side lost last four series games; six of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. Titans won last two visits here, 27-21/25-22. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Four of last five Washington games went over. Redskins are 5-10 in last 15 games as a home fave.
Dolphins (2-3) @ Bears (3-3)—Chicago turned ball over nine times in its three losses (-2/-2/-1), one time in its three wins (+4/+2/+1); they lost both home games, to Bills/Packers, as road team won five of their six games this season. Since 2007, Chicago is 12-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’re 4-3 in last seven games vs Miami, but lost three of four here, with only win in 1988. Dolphins lost three of last four games, giving up winning score to Pack last week with 0:03 left; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in three of their five games. Chicago is 0-3 scoring less than 27 points. Fish are 27-14-1 as road underdogs since ’08, 7-7 under Philbin. Four of Miami games went over total, as have three of last four Bear games.
Browns (3-2) @ Jaguars (0-6)—Huge trap game for improved Browns, coming off rare win vs rival Steelers. Winning point scored in last 1:09 in four of five Cleveland games; their two road games (1-1) were decided by total of four points. Over last decade, Browns are 6-1 when favored on road; they’ve run ball for33 yards in last two games. Jaguars got first cover of season last week; since ’10 they’re 6-20-1 as home dogs, 0-2 this season, losing by 27-8 points, but they allowed total of only 33 points in last two games. Last eight Brown-Jaguar games were decided by 6 or less points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 3-5 out of division. Four of five Cleveland games went over the total.
Seahawks (3-2) @ Rams (1-4)—Rams won 27-20 at Seattle in ’04 playoffs; since then, St Louis is 2-16 against the Seahawks, scoring an average of 9.5 ppg in their last six series losses- teams split last four games played here. Rams lost last three games overall, despite having a spurt of at least 14-0 in each game; St Louis has spurts where they play very well, but then they undo it with huge mistakes at bad times (see last 0:30 of 1st half Monday). Since 2007, they’re 17-25 as home underdogs. Seattle has only four takeaways in five games but is still +1 in turnovers; they’ve allowed 7.2+ ypa in three of last four games- they’ve covered six of last nine games as road favorites. NFL-wide, home underdogs in division games are 4-7 against the spread.
Panthers (3-2-1) @ Packers (4-2)—Carolina is 3-0-1 when they get 2+ takeaways in a game, scoring 28 ppg; they scored 19-10 points in losing both games with no takeaways. Panthers covered nine of last 11 tries as a road dog- they’re 1-1-1 SU on road, losing 38-10 in Baltimore. Packers won last three games by 21-32-3 points, after 1-2 start; they’ve scored 13 TD’s on last 29 drives, after scoring six on first 30 this season. Pack is 15-9 as home favorites since ’11, 1-1 this season. GB is 8-4 in this series, 3-2 here; average total in last four series games is 57.0. NFC South road teams are 2-6-1 vs spread on road; NFC North non-conference favorites are 3-2. Last four Carolina games, five of six Packer games went over the total.
Falcons (2-4) @ Ravens (4-2)—Atlanta lost last three games, allowing 32.7 ppg; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 14-13-10 points while allowing 31.7 ppg (10 TD’s on 31 drives); foes are 22 of last 43 on 3rd down. Falcons covered three of last 10 tries as road dogs. Three of four Raven wins are by 20+ points; they’re 16-8-2 vs spread in NFC games under Harbaugh- they were held to 16-13 points in two losses. Atlanta hasn’t held anyone under 24 points this year. Teams split four series games, with three of four decided by 6 or less points; Falcons lost 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 1-4-1 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 5-2-2 outside their division. Three of last four Raven games went over total.
Vikings (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)—Buffalo lost three of last four games after 2-0 start, losing last two home games by 12-15 points; they’ve run ball 45 times for only 117 yards in last two games, are 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite, 1-1 this year- two of its three wins are by FG over NFC North teams. Minnesota lost four of last five games while starting three different QB’s, losing last two games by combined 59-13; they turned ball over 3+times in three of four losses, had no takeaways in 4th loss- they were +2 in both wins. Vikings are 8-4 in series games, winning four of six in both cities; they scored 31+ points in four of last five series games- they’re 18-21-1 in last 40 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this season, 6-11 in last 17 games vs AFC foes.
Saints (2-3) @ Lions (4-2)- New Orleans is 0-3 on road this year (allowing 33.7 ppg), 0-10 vs spread in last 10 games on foreign soil, but they’ve won last five post-bye games, scoring average of 40.2 ppg- four of those five were at home. Star TE Graham (shoulder) is expected to miss this game. Saints are allowing 145 rushing yards per road game. Detroit allowed total of only 34 points in last four games, allowing one TD on foes’ last 26 drives. All this despite Lions converting just 2 for last 29 on third down; their offense isn’t good with WR Johnson out. Saints won last four series games, scoring 40.8 ppg, but this is their first visit to Motor City since 2008. Lions Last five Detroit games stayed under total; four of five Saint games went over.
Chiefs (2-3) @ Chargers (5-1)—San Diego won 11 of last 13 series games, including last four in row, winning both games LY by three points each; Chiefs lost last six visits here, with three of six by exactly 3 points. Chargers won their last five games overall (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 9-19-31 points at home- Bolts are 8-3 vs spread at home under McCoy, 4-1 when favored. KC covered its last four games, winning two of last three after 0-2 start; they scored 17 or less points in losses, 34+ in wins. Chargers held four of six opponents to 18 or less points. Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games, with three of four losses by 10+; they’re 3-0 as road dogs this year, 5-1 overall under Reid.
Giants (3-3) @ Cowboys (5-1)— Underdogs are 26-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era. Dallas won its last five games (4-1 vs spread), with three of five wins on road; they’re still just 6-21 vs spread as a home favorite under Garrett, 0-1 this year, but they’re 2-1 at home, winning by 21-3 points. Giants’ passing game hurt by losing WR Cruz for year; they’ve won three of last four games, are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 21 points. Big Blue is 12-8 in last 20 games as road dog, 1-2 this year. Cowboys won three of last four series games, with last three all decided by 5 or less points, but Giants won four of last five visits here, with all five decided by 6 or less. Three of last four Dallas games went over total.
Cardinals (4-1) @ Raiders (0-5)—Oakland showed spunk in Sparano’s first game as interim coach, losing 31-28 to 5-1 Chargers, but Raiders are still 0-5 (2-2-1 vs spread), losing home games by 16-24-3 points; they’re 6-12-1 in last 19 games as home dogs, 1-2 this year. Arizona’s last three wins are all by 9+ points; their only loss was at Denver, when #3 QB Thomas wound up playing, something he ain’t ready for. Palmer was 8-16 as Oakland’s starting QB in 2011-12 Home team lost five of last eight series games, with four of last six decided by 3 or less points. Arizona is 3-0 as a road favorite under Arians; no team has run ball for more than 92 yards against them this year. Cardinals split two visits here, haven’t played in Coliseum since ’06.
49ers (4-2) @ Broncos (4-1)—Not the best week for defensive stalwart Willis (toe) to be out for 49ers; they allowed 28-23 points in two losses, only two games Niners allowed more than 21 points. Broncos are averaging 32 ppg at home, are different team since getting Welker back and then ironing out kinks during bye week, winning last two weeks by 21-14 points while scoring 8 TD’s on 26 drives (36 ppg). Denver is 13-5 as home favorites with Manning at QB, 1-2 this year, winning all three at home by 7-7-21 points. 49ers are 6-4-1 as road underdog under Harbaugh, losing by TD in OT (+5) at Seattle, in only game as a dog this season. Five of six Niner games stayed under total. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.
Texans (3-3) @ Steelers (3-3)—Pitt is struggling badly, losing to Bucs/Browns in last three weeks, with 17-9 win at Jacksonville in between; Steelers scored total of just 27 points (two TD’s on 21 drives) in last two games, despite converting 20 of last 46 on 3rd down. Houston lost three of last four games after 2-0 start; they’re 6-5-1 in last dozen games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Teams split four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 18 points; Texans won 24-6, lost 38-17 in two visits here, last of which was in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional home teams are 4-1-1; non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2. Remember that over is 15-4 in primetime games this season.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 7
Bengals (3-1-1) @ Colts (4-2)— Home side won eight of last nine series games, including last five in row; Bengals lost last six visits here, with all six by 6+ points, four of six by 13+ points, but they did beat Colts 42-28 at home LY. Cincy is 0-1-1 since its bye after a 3-0 start; they missed 36-yard FG to win on last play of OT last week, almost overcoming 116 penalty yards by converting 10-16 on third down. Indy won four in row after 0-2 start, scoring 38+ points in three of four games; they’re 30 for 50 on third down in last four games (8 of 25 in first two). Indy is 7-6 as home favorite under Pagano, 2-1 this year. Bengals are 7-3-2 vs spread in last dozen games as a road underdog. Four of last five Colt games went over the total.
Titans (2-4) @ Redskins (1-5)—Both teams struggling badly; Titans snapped 4-game skid last week with 16-14 win over winless Jags- their last two games were decided by total of three points. Tennessee lost last two road games by combined score of 74-24. Redskins lost last four games, allowing 34.8 ppg; they’ve lost field position in last three games by 25-18-15 yards- four of their five losses are by 10+ points. Home side lost last four series games; six of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. Titans won last two visits here, 27-21/25-22. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Four of last five Washington games went over. Redskins are 5-10 in last 15 games as a home fave.
Dolphins (2-3) @ Bears (3-3)—Chicago turned ball over nine times in its three losses (-2/-2/-1), one time in its three wins (+4/+2/+1); they lost both home games, to Bills/Packers, as road team won five of their six games this season. Since 2007, Chicago is 12-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’re 4-3 in last seven games vs Miami, but lost three of four here, with only win in 1988. Dolphins lost three of last four games, giving up winning score to Pack last week with 0:03 left; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in three of their five games. Chicago is 0-3 scoring less than 27 points. Fish are 27-14-1 as road underdogs since ’08, 7-7 under Philbin. Four of Miami games went over total, as have three of last four Bear games.
Browns (3-2) @ Jaguars (0-6)—Huge trap game for improved Browns, coming off rare win vs rival Steelers. Winning point scored in last 1:09 in four of five Cleveland games; their two road games (1-1) were decided by total of four points. Over last decade, Browns are 6-1 when favored on road; they’ve run ball for33 yards in last two games. Jaguars got first cover of season last week; since ’10 they’re 6-20-1 as home dogs, 0-2 this season, losing by 27-8 points, but they allowed total of only 33 points in last two games. Last eight Brown-Jaguar games were decided by 6 or less points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 3-5 out of division. Four of five Cleveland games went over the total.
Seahawks (3-2) @ Rams (1-4)—Rams won 27-20 at Seattle in ’04 playoffs; since then, St Louis is 2-16 against the Seahawks, scoring an average of 9.5 ppg in their last six series losses- teams split last four games played here. Rams lost last three games overall, despite having a spurt of at least 14-0 in each game; St Louis has spurts where they play very well, but then they undo it with huge mistakes at bad times (see last 0:30 of 1st half Monday). Since 2007, they’re 17-25 as home underdogs. Seattle has only four takeaways in five games but is still +1 in turnovers; they’ve allowed 7.2+ ypa in three of last four games- they’ve covered six of last nine games as road favorites. NFL-wide, home underdogs in division games are 4-7 against the spread.
Panthers (3-2-1) @ Packers (4-2)—Carolina is 3-0-1 when they get 2+ takeaways in a game, scoring 28 ppg; they scored 19-10 points in losing both games with no takeaways. Panthers covered nine of last 11 tries as a road dog- they’re 1-1-1 SU on road, losing 38-10 in Baltimore. Packers won last three games by 21-32-3 points, after 1-2 start; they’ve scored 13 TD’s on last 29 drives, after scoring six on first 30 this season. Pack is 15-9 as home favorites since ’11, 1-1 this season. GB is 8-4 in this series, 3-2 here; average total in last four series games is 57.0. NFC South road teams are 2-6-1 vs spread on road; NFC North non-conference favorites are 3-2. Last four Carolina games, five of six Packer games went over the total.
Falcons (2-4) @ Ravens (4-2)—Atlanta lost last three games, allowing 32.7 ppg; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 14-13-10 points while allowing 31.7 ppg (10 TD’s on 31 drives); foes are 22 of last 43 on 3rd down. Falcons covered three of last 10 tries as road dogs. Three of four Raven wins are by 20+ points; they’re 16-8-2 vs spread in NFC games under Harbaugh- they were held to 16-13 points in two losses. Atlanta hasn’t held anyone under 24 points this year. Teams split four series games, with three of four decided by 6 or less points; Falcons lost 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 1-4-1 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 5-2-2 outside their division. Three of last four Raven games went over total.
Vikings (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)—Buffalo lost three of last four games after 2-0 start, losing last two home games by 12-15 points; they’ve run ball 45 times for only 117 yards in last two games, are 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite, 1-1 this year- two of its three wins are by FG over NFC North teams. Minnesota lost four of last five games while starting three different QB’s, losing last two games by combined 59-13; they turned ball over 3+times in three of four losses, had no takeaways in 4th loss- they were +2 in both wins. Vikings are 8-4 in series games, winning four of six in both cities; they scored 31+ points in four of last five series games- they’re 18-21-1 in last 40 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this season, 6-11 in last 17 games vs AFC foes.
Saints (2-3) @ Lions (4-2)- New Orleans is 0-3 on road this year (allowing 33.7 ppg), 0-10 vs spread in last 10 games on foreign soil, but they’ve won last five post-bye games, scoring average of 40.2 ppg- four of those five were at home. Star TE Graham (shoulder) is expected to miss this game. Saints are allowing 145 rushing yards per road game. Detroit allowed total of only 34 points in last four games, allowing one TD on foes’ last 26 drives. All this despite Lions converting just 2 for last 29 on third down; their offense isn’t good with WR Johnson out. Saints won last four series games, scoring 40.8 ppg, but this is their first visit to Motor City since 2008. Lions Last five Detroit games stayed under total; four of five Saint games went over.
Chiefs (2-3) @ Chargers (5-1)—San Diego won 11 of last 13 series games, including last four in row, winning both games LY by three points each; Chiefs lost last six visits here, with three of six by exactly 3 points. Chargers won their last five games overall (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 9-19-31 points at home- Bolts are 8-3 vs spread at home under McCoy, 4-1 when favored. KC covered its last four games, winning two of last three after 0-2 start; they scored 17 or less points in losses, 34+ in wins. Chargers held four of six opponents to 18 or less points. Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games, with three of four losses by 10+; they’re 3-0 as road dogs this year, 5-1 overall under Reid.
Giants (3-3) @ Cowboys (5-1)— Underdogs are 26-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era. Dallas won its last five games (4-1 vs spread), with three of five wins on road; they’re still just 6-21 vs spread as a home favorite under Garrett, 0-1 this year, but they’re 2-1 at home, winning by 21-3 points. Giants’ passing game hurt by losing WR Cruz for year; they’ve won three of last four games, are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 21 points. Big Blue is 12-8 in last 20 games as road dog, 1-2 this year. Cowboys won three of last four series games, with last three all decided by 5 or less points, but Giants won four of last five visits here, with all five decided by 6 or less. Three of last four Dallas games went over total.
Cardinals (4-1) @ Raiders (0-5)—Oakland showed spunk in Sparano’s first game as interim coach, losing 31-28 to 5-1 Chargers, but Raiders are still 0-5 (2-2-1 vs spread), losing home games by 16-24-3 points; they’re 6-12-1 in last 19 games as home dogs, 1-2 this year. Arizona’s last three wins are all by 9+ points; their only loss was at Denver, when #3 QB Thomas wound up playing, something he ain’t ready for. Palmer was 8-16 as Oakland’s starting QB in 2011-12 Home team lost five of last eight series games, with four of last six decided by 3 or less points. Arizona is 3-0 as a road favorite under Arians; no team has run ball for more than 92 yards against them this year. Cardinals split two visits here, haven’t played in Coliseum since ’06.
49ers (4-2) @ Broncos (4-1)—Not the best week for defensive stalwart Willis (toe) to be out for 49ers; they allowed 28-23 points in two losses, only two games Niners allowed more than 21 points. Broncos are averaging 32 ppg at home, are different team since getting Welker back and then ironing out kinks during bye week, winning last two weeks by 21-14 points while scoring 8 TD’s on 26 drives (36 ppg). Denver is 13-5 as home favorites with Manning at QB, 1-2 this year, winning all three at home by 7-7-21 points. 49ers are 6-4-1 as road underdog under Harbaugh, losing by TD in OT (+5) at Seattle, in only game as a dog this season. Five of six Niner games stayed under total. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.
Texans (3-3) @ Steelers (3-3)—Pitt is struggling badly, losing to Bucs/Browns in last three weeks, with 17-9 win at Jacksonville in between; Steelers scored total of just 27 points (two TD’s on 21 drives) in last two games, despite converting 20 of last 46 on 3rd down. Houston lost three of last four games after 2-0 start; they’re 6-5-1 in last dozen games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Teams split four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 18 points; Texans won 24-6, lost 38-17 in two visits here, last of which was in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional home teams are 4-1-1; non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2. Remember that over is 15-4 in primetime games this season.
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