NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Tuesday, October 14 - Saturday, October 18)

[Udog]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 8

Looking to wager on the elite teams in college football this weekend? Don't have time to handicap every Top 25 matchup? Put your mind at ease and just cheat - with our NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet featuring all of Week 8's biggest games.

(14) Kansas State Wildcats at (11) Oklahoma Sooners (-8)
*Kansas State's rushing defense has been on point this season, allowing only 81.4 yards against and only allowing a total of three rushing touchdowns this season.

*The Sooners will have their first game at home since Sept. 9, marking the first time since 1999 the team has been away from the Palace on the Prairie for more than one month. Oklahoma has won their past 10 home games in a row, while going 5-5 ATS.


(4) Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers (+8)
*Baylor's offense has been on-fire in the first half this season. The Bears are outscoring opponents 104-21 in first quarters and 80-20 in second quarters this season.

*Though West Virginia had a big comeback win last week, coach Dana Holgorsen was not happy with his own performance. "In the first half, I probably got a little bit frustrated, because we weren't getting explosive plays in the run game, but we were averaging five, six yards a carry - which is successful," the fourth year coach said. "I have to be a little bit more patient with that."


(22) Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles (+6.5)
*Though Clemson walked away with a win against Louisville last week, they lost their starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson broke a small bone in his finger that will sideline him for a month. Also, backup QB Cole Stoudt did not practice ahead of the Louisville game and received injections to play.

*Boston College coach Steve Addazio spoke incredibly highly of the Clemson defense this week. ".I'm saying that in my career--predominantly in the SEC--I haven't seen a defense like this since we played Alabama in the [2009] SEC Championship Game. This is the most dominant defense I have seen. Period."


Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (13) Ohio State Buckeyes (-19)
*Rutgers is certainly not downplaying the significance of their matchup with the Buckeyes. “For me, in terms of games I’ve played this is definitely going to be in my top three all time,” senior David Milewski said.

*Urban Meyer has been dominant over coaches the first time he faces them. The 50 year old is 78-15 when facing the opposing coach for the first time.


(6) Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5)
*Travel has not been kind to the Spartans offense. In MSU's two road games this season the Spartans are averaging 36 points per game, compared to 50.25 ppg at home.

*Indiana enters what could be their biggest game of the year with question marks at QB. Nate Sudfeld has already been lost to a shoulder injury, but it's being reported that freshman backup Chris Covington won't play either. That would elevate third-string freshman Zander Diamont to the starter role.


(21) Texas A&M Aggies at (7) Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)
*Over the Aggies two weeks they have averaged 25.5 points and have gone 12 of 35 on third downs compared to averaging 51.2 and going 34 of 63 on third down over their first five.

*After the Crimson Tide amassed 66 yards on 32 carries last week, there was no finger pointing happening. "Personally, I thought I played terrible," RT Austin Shepherd said. "I kind of take responsibility for it. I don't think any of us had a good game. Probably the worst game we've played as a unit just to be straight up."


(10) Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (+3.5)
*Without Todd Gurley last week, the Bulldogs throttled Mizzou and you can thank the absence of their Heisman candidate back for that. “We had a chip on our shoulder as far as we don't have Todd (Gurley) and everyone thinks that the world is falling apart,” QB Hutson Mason said. “So we took it upon ourselves that we need to show everybody that there are 10 other guys on our offense..."

*If the Razorbacks expect to compete with Georgia they will need to tighten up their rush defense which has allowed 145.8 ypg and 8.4 rushing first downs a game.


(15) Oklahoma State Cowboys at (12) TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5)
*Even thought people want to point out increased blitzes against the Cowboys offense, coach Mike Gundy disagrees. "It looks worse because we don’t block them. It hasn't really been many more, a little bit, but not a lot. They show up a lot and it doesn't look good when you don’t pick it up. The blitz isn’t a real concern for us, just blocking base front is a concern for us because there’s a lot more guys in coverage."

*TCU's surge to the polls this season can be attached to their offensive increase. The Horned Frogs boast the nation's most improved power five conference unit (+165.2 ypg) from last season.


(24) Marshall Thundering Herd at FIU Golden Panthers (+21.5)
*Marshall is the only ranked team from C-USA, but that is not enough for the team. "I’m not satisfied with 25,” WR Tommy Shuler said. “I feel like we’re better than 25." The Herd ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards, points against and points for.

*Though FIU has already greatly improved over last season, the team still needs to develop the right attitude according to coach Ron Turner. ""We've got to learn how to play with that chip, that edge. (If) we get it back, we can be a good football team, win a lot of games. If we don't, we're not," the second year coach said. "We're not good enough just to go out there and play."


Colorado Buffaloes at (25) USC Trojans (-19)
*Trojans may be without starting CB Adoree Jackson after injuring his hip flexor against Arizona. The freshman did not practice on Tuesday and his status remains uncertain for the game.

*The Buffaloes have been dreading within the Pac-12 since they have joined the conference. Colorado has lost nine straight conference road games and are 2-13 in league road games since joining the Pac-12.


Tennessee Volunteers at (3) Ole Miss Rebels (-16.5)
*The Volunteers defense has been keeping them around the past two weeks, allowing opposing offenses a grand total of 192 yards passing (86 ypg). This has vaulted them into the top 20 in the nation in yards allowed and points against.

*Ole Miss has surrendered just 26 points in the first half of games so far this season, including just three in the first quarter.


(19) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats (+7)
*Nebraska should be getting LB David Santos back in the lineup after having the bye week to heal. "I would say [Santos] has a lot of leadership and his knowledge of the game, it makes it a lot easier when you are playing next to someone and communicating and both on the same page," fellow LB Trevor Roach said.

*Despite arguably QB Trevor Siemian having his best game of the season last week, coach Pat Fitzgerald was still not impressed. “We threw the ball obviously not well enough to win the football game."


(5) Notre Dame at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)
*Coach Brian Kelly has some concerns about the game Saturday, but it's not really FSU. "Our problems have been self inflicted," the coach said. "So I'm more concerned about our self inflicted wounds than I am what may happen because of the environment."

*The offense for the Seminoles has been getting all the media attention, but the defense has been doing a great job of protecting leads. FSU ranks eighth in the country in red zone defense only allowing points in 65.22 percent of opponents trips within the 20.


Washington Huskies at (9) Oregon Ducks (-21)
*Through six games this season, the Huskies have surrounded only one turnover. If Washington keeps up that pace (.16 TO per game) then they will break the record for fewest turnovers in a season set by Clemson in 1940, Miami (OH) in 1966 and Notre Dame in 2000.

*In recent memory there may be no team that has dominated opponents quite like Oregon. All but eight of the Ducks 52 victories since 2010 have been by more than 14 points.


(20) Stanford Cardinals at (18) Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5)
*Cardinals coach David Shaw has relished in facing the top teams in the nation. Shaw is 14-6 all time against AP Top 25 ranked teams.

*It is still undetermined in Sun Devils starter Taylor Kelly will be back or if it will be Mike Bercovici again. Kelly " is able to move the down markers in very different ways. Whether it’s with his legs, with the run game or just making great decisions," according to ASU coach Todd Graham. "I believe that (Mike) is just a great extension of him. Obviously, he brings a lot to it with his ability to create a rhythm passing game."

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Saturday's games
Top games of week
Maryland allowed 92 points in losing last two home games, to West Va/Ohio State; Terrapins are 5-8 as home favorites under Edsall, 0-1 this year. Terps allowed 845 rushing yards in last three games, including red-flag 370 at Syracuse, which soon after demoted its OC. Iowa might be least-respected 5-1 team in America; road team covered all five of its I-A games, with Hawkeyes winning 24-20 at Pitt, 24-10 at Purdue. Iowa covered last three games as road dogs, after covering of previous seven before that; they gave up 316 rushing yards to Indiana, but Hoosiers completed just 7-21 passes. Big 14 home favorites are 4-7 vs spread in league play.

Baylor lost 70-63 at West Virginia two years ago, beat WVU 73-42 LY, as teams play Arenaball outdoors; Bears gained total of 1,572 yards in the two games. Baylor rallied from behind to beat TCU 61-58 last week, with defense on field for 89 plays; they’ve already won three road games, at two stiffs and Texas (28-7, -14), are 2-0-1 as road favorite this year. Petty passed for 510 yards last week but threw 27 incompletions; he’s not 100%. WVU scored 33+ points against everyone but Alabama this season; their losses are by 10-12 points. Mountaineers are 2-4 as home dog under Holgorsen. Big X home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread so far this season.

Arkansas got 10 votes for top 25 despite having zero SEC wins in last two calendar years; Hogs lost 14-13 at home to Alabama last week, outgaining Tide 335-227 but missing a PAT which was margin of defeat; Hogs are 8-6 in last 14 games as home underdog, 2-3 under Bielema. Georgia scored 44.8 ppg in winning last four games; they’ve scored 35-34 points in two road games, with only loss 38-35 at Clemson. Dawgs are 9-7 in last 16 games as road favorites, 1-1 this season. These teams haven’t met since 2010; Georgia won five of last six meetings, with underdog covering last four. SEC home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in conference play.

Stanford won its last four games with Arizona State, with three wins by 14+ points; they had 480 rushing yards in two wins over ASU LY, one of which was Pac-12 title game, but Cardinal lost four of last five visits here, winning 17-13 in last visit here, in ’10. Favorites covered six of last seven series games, but underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games this year, 4-2 if at home. Stanford was held to 10-14 points in its two losses, to USC/Notre Dame; Sun Devils allowed 96 points in last two games, and gave up 23-24 points to New Mexico/Colorado in earlier wins. Cardinal is 2-5 in last seven games as a road favorite.

UCLA lost its last seven visits to Berkeley, losing last five by 14+ points each; last six series games were all decided by 17+ points. Bruins lost last two games, allowing 30-42 points; they’ve given up 27+ points in four of last five games, but won only two road games by 8-35 points, winning big at ASU in game that Sun Devil QB Kelly was hurt. UCLA is 4-3 as road favorites under Mora. California is improved at 4-2, but they’ve allowed 48.8 ppg in last four games, allowing 56-59 points in consecutive wins; over last decade, they’re 3-13 as home underdogs. UCLA allowed 570 rushing yards in last two games.

Road team won both A&M-Alabama games last two years; Manziel hung 628 TY, 42 points on Bama in 49-42 home loss that fanned flames of whole “Johnny Football” thing, after Aggies (+13) upset Tide here 29-24 the year before. Aggies are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as home dogs, 1-1 this year; they lost last two weeks, giving up 83 points to two Mississippi schools. Bama survived 14-13 win at Arkansas (Hogs missed PAT) after losing to Ole Miss week before; Crimson Tide is 2-1 as home favorite this year (8-3 in last 11 tries as home fave), scoring 41+ points in last two at home, but they scored 17-14 in struggling on road the last two games.

Oklahoma won nine of last 11 games with Kansas State, with underdogs covering three of last four; Sooners’ last six series wins were all by 10+ points. K-State covered four of last five visits here, winning last time after losses by 12-1-22 points in previous three visits. Oklahoma allowed 32 ppg in last three games, squeaking by rival Texas last week after getting beat at TCU; they’re 31-18-1 in last fifty games as home favorite, 1-1 this year. Wildcats haven’t been on road in six weeks, squeaking by 32-28 at Iowa State in only road game- K-State covered 10 of its last 11 games as a road underdog- they’re 13-2 overall as an underdog anywhere since 2011.

Tennessee lost its first two SEC games by total of 4 points, also got hammered 34-10 at Oklahoma; they’re very young team with good senior QB. Vols are 4-9 in last 13 games as road underdog, 1-1 this year, 2-4 under Jones- their gritty 35-32 loss at Georgia shows their competitiveness. Ole Miss just beat Alabama/A&M on consecutive Saturdays; they’re 5-0-1 vs spread this season, winning by 18 in the push. Rebels are 6-3-1 as home favorites under Freeze; they play LSU next week, but they didn’t let down after Alabama win, so maybe this is just special year at Ole Miss, which did give up 401 passing yards at A&M last week, albeit in game they led wire-to-wire.

Florida has more mobile QB Harris back to give spark off bench after his off-field drama from last week was resolved; Gators are 2-2 in SEC, beating Vols 10-9, Kentucky in OT, so not real impressive. Florida is 5-9 in last 14 games as home favorite, 1-1 this year. Mizzou was awful in last two home games, but has road wins at Toledo/South Carolina; Tigers covered eight of last 11 tries as a home dog, but they’ve been awful throwing ball last two games, completing only 21-55 passes. Georgia held Tigers to only 147 yards last week. Home side won both Missouri-Florida games; Tigers outgained Florida 500-151 in 36-17 (+3) home win LY, running ball for 205 yards.

TCU covered all four I-A games this season, scoring 45.3 ppg, with only loss 61-58 at Baylor last week, when Frogs blew big lead late; they’re 5-9-1 in last 15 games as home favorites, 1-0 this year. Oklahoma State drilled TCU 36-14/24-10 in Stillwater last two years, but Horned Frogs are better now; how will TCU bounce back while playing third tough opponent (Oklahoma/Baylor) in a row? Cowboys are 5-1 with only loss 37-31 to Florida State in Dallas; they’re 3-1 in last four games as road underdog, but last week’s 27-20 win at Kansas (-21, needed KR for TD with 8:00 left to win) was their first true road game this season.

Last three Nebraska-Northwestern games were decided by total of 7 points, with Huskers winning two of three, coming from way back to win LY’s game. Nebraska (-6) won 29-28 in last visit here, in ’12; they gained 1,015 yards in last two series gamers. Huskers are off bye after Michigan State loss; they’re 2-4 in last six games as road favorites, 1-0 this year. Wildcats allowed 14 or less points in all three wins, Penn State/Wisconsin being two of them; NWern is 6-9 in last 15 games as home underdogs, 1-0 this year after upsetting Badgers. Wildcats lost 24-17 in Minnesota last week after outgaining Badgers by 119 yards. Big 14 underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in league play, 3-2 at home.

Kentucky is improved this year at 5-1, with only loss in OT at Florida, but Wildcats lost last three visits to LSU by combined score of 118-7; they’re 5-12 in last 17 games as road underdog, and gave up 519 rushing yards to Gators/South Carolina. Over last 10+ years, LSU is 25-35-1 as a home favorite, 2-1 this year; they allowed 27+ points in losing two of three SEC games so far, gutting out 30-27 win at Florida last week, despite completing only 10-22 passes. Teams have met only once since 2007, with LSU winning five of last six meetings. SEC home favorites are just 4-9 vs spread in conference games this season.

October 18 is first true road game of season for Notre Dame, which only has two more (ASU/USC) true road games this year; Irish were obviously looking ahead to this game last week, but 50-43 win over defenseless UNC is still red flag, with Tar Heels passing for 326 yards, gaining 510 total yards in game that was 28-26 at half. ND is 5-2 as road underdog under Kelly. Florida State is seemingly impervious to distractions in Winston era, but they’re also 1-4 vs spread this season, 1-1 as home favorite- FSU is 18-9-1 overall as home favorites under Fisher. Seminoles scored 45.7 ppg in winning last three games since surviving Clemson.

Notes on rest of the card
-- Marshall covered its last four games, winning all four by 25+ points; they beat FIU 48-10 (-32) LY, running ball for 270 yards. FIU covered four of its five lined games this season.
-- Syracuse lost its last four games, all by 14+ points; they demoted their OC/recruiting coordinator; not good. Orange (-4.5) beat Wake Forest LY 13-0 in Dome, holding Deacons to 198 yards.
-- Northern Illinois won five of last six games with Miami O, but dogs covered five of those six games. Huskies scored 14-17-17 points in last three games. Miami is playing fifth road game in six weeks.
-- Ohio won its last six games with Akron (4-1-1 vs spread), taking 43-0 verdict LY, but Bobcats are 3-4 this year, scoring total of 40 points in three MAC games (1-2 SU).

-- Favorites covered five of last six Purdue-Minnesota games, with home team winning last four; Boilers lost 44-28/35-20 in last two visits here. Gophers won first two league games by 16-7 points.
-- Duke won five of last six games with Virginia, winning by 13-25 in last two years; dogs are 3-1-1 in last five series games. Cavaliers lost three in a row at Duke, by 25-7-28 points.
-- Georgia Tech won 14 of last 16 games with North Carolina, winning last five (4-0-1 vs spread); they've run ball for 312 yards in last six series games. Tech won 68-50/30-24 in last two visits here.
-- NC State lost last three games after 4-0 start, allowing 42.3 ppg; they are 2-7-1 in last ten games as road dog, 0-3-1 under Doeren. Since 2007, Louisville is 14-25 as a home favorite.

-- UMass is 1-6, but they've scored 42-41-40 points last three games and 31+ in five of last six games. Eastern Michigan is 1-4 vs I-A teams, with all losses by 14+, but they won last week as a 14-point dog.
-- Favorites covered four of last five Western Michigan-Bowling Green games; Western won last three, winning 41-7/45-14 in last two visits to BG. Falcons won last three games overall, scoring 38 ppg.
-- Ball State won last four games with Central Michigan, winning its last three visits here by 11-14-7 points. Favorites covered six of last nine in series, but Chips are 4-0 in series when single digit favorite.
-- San Jose State (-8.5) won 51-44 over Wyoming LY; Cowboys ran ball for 332 yards in losing cause. Wyoming is 3-3 with three wins by total of 10 points- their losses are by 34-42-10 points.

-- Air Force won eight of last ten games with New Mexico, but lost to Lobos 45-37 LY; favorites covered 10 of last 14 series games. Last two years, New Mexico has 860 rushing yards against Falcons.
-- Tulsa lost last five games, allowing 43.2 ppg; two of their three games at home went OT. South Florida covered its last three games, but scored 17 or less points in last five games.
-- Home side won both UTSA-Louisiana Tech games; Roadrunners won 30-10 LY, outgaining Tech 475-195. Tech is 5-0 vs spread in lined games but also lost to a I-AA team.
-- North Texas (-12) won 55-14 at Southern Miss LY, gaining 529 yards; UNT lost last three I-A games, allowing 49 ppg. Southern Miss covered three of last four games, but allowed 78 points in last two.

-- Cincinnati lost its last three games, allowing 48.7 ppg; they beat SMU 28-25 (-7.5) LY, SMU passed for 403 yards. Mustangs lost 45-24 last game, its first cover in five games this season.
-- 1-5 Troy basically fired its longtime coach last week, then won first game of year, 41-24. Appalachian State is 0-4 vs spread vs I-A teams in '14- they lost in OT to a I-AA team last week.
-- BYU (-15) won 28-23 at Nevada LY, gaining 492 yards, but they've lost QB Hill for season and lost last two games, allowing 33 ppg in their last three games. Nevada allowed 82 points in losing last two games.
-- Road team won last two Army-Kent games; Cadets ran for 558 yards in two games. Army is 0-3 on road, losing to Wake Forest/Yale by total of nine points. Kent is 0-6, scoring 11.8 ppg.

-- Oregon won/covered its last ten games with Washington; Huskies lost last six visits to Eugene, losing all six by 20+ points. Washington is 2-0 as an underdog; its only loss was 20-13 to Stanford.
-- Middle Tennessee (-3.5) won 24-21 at UAB LY, in game where both teams ran for 250+ yards. Improved UAB is 4-2, scoring 41+ points in all four wins. MT allowed 37.7 ppg in its last six games.
-- Ohio State is off bye after scoring 102 points in previous two games, wins by 22-28 points; they're 4-1 vs spread this year. Rutgers covered its last four games, is surprising 5-1, with only loss 13-10 to Penn St.
-- USC won its three Pac-12 meetings with Colorado by average score of 47-17; Buffs lost 50-6 in last meeting here; they've covered last four in row overall, haven't lost this year by more than 14 points.

-- Michigan State won last five games with Indiana, covering four of five games; they've covered four of last six visits here. Hoosiers lost their QB for season last week; they allowed 35.6 ppg in last five games.
-- Clemson won its last three games with Boston College by 10-14-22 points; underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Tigers split their last four visits here, winning by 14-6 points.
-- Underdogs covered 11 of last 15 New Mexico State-Idaho games, with Aggies losing last four visits here, by 8-23-6-8 points. Vandals are 0-6 this season, allowing 34+ points in every game.
-- Georgia State is 0-5 vs I-A teams but covered three of last four games. South Alabama had bye last week; they're 3-2 but lost both home games, scoring total of nine points.

-- Underdogs covered last four Western Kentucky-FAU games; Owls won four of last five, holding WKU under 300 yards in last three. FAU won its two home games, scoring 91 points.
-- Underdogs covered three of last four Utah State-Colorado State games, with Aggies winning 13-0/31-19 last two years. Improived Rams are 5-1 and covered their last four games.
-- Texas won nine of last ten games with Iowa State; Cyclones covered three of last four visits to Austin, but ISU allowed 38.7 ppg in last three games. Texas is 2-4, but its wins are by 31-23 points.

-- Texas Tech won last seven games with Kansas, covering four of last five; Jayhawks lost last three visits to Lubbock by 7-21-13 points. Tech lost its last four games, allowing 44 ppg.
-- Central Florida won four of last five games with Tulane, covering all five; Green Wave lost 49-0/34-24 in last two visits here. Tulane scored 31 points in last three games; favorites covered all six of their games.
-- Hawai'i lost 52-14/35-13 in last two visits to San Diego State; they're 0-2 vs spread on mainland this year, losing by 9-14 points. Aztecs won by 10-14 points, its only wins in five games vs I-A teams.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 18

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Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Florida State
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(5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)

Second-ranked Florida State puts its school-record 22-game winning streak — and perhaps its hopes of repeating as national champion — on the line when it hosts No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday. The Seminoles have dodged a couple of upset bids in their title defense and face their toughest test yet as they aim for their eighth straight win over a ranked team. The Fighting Irish could vault into the playoff picture with a victory but still have two more road trips scheduled against ranked opponents.

A loss wouldn't necessarily knock the Seminoles out of the four-team playoff picture, but their schedule is relatively weak compared to teams from other power conferences and could hurt them when considering other one-loss teams. "Anytime you play a high-ranked opponent you want to be successful because it gives you tons of credibility," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "We don't look at it as an end-all game, but it's a very important game." Florida State has won five of seven all-time meetings, but the the Fighting Irish emerged victorious in the only previous clash in Tallahassee in 2002.

TV: 8:23 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Florida State -11.5.

LINE HISTORY: The opening the line sat at FSU-12.5, but action on Notre Dame has shifted the line to FSU -11.5.

INJURY REPORT: Notre Dame - N/A FSU - WR Rashad Greene (Prob-Foot), RB Karlos Williams (Ques-Ankle), DT Derrick Mitchell Jr. (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football. Temperatures will be near 85°F with no humidity and clear skies.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (6-0): The Irish have boasted one of the nation's top defenses for most of the season, but that reputation was dinged in last week's 50-43 win over North Carolina. If it turns into a shootout, Notre Dame's offense is in good hands with quarterback Everett Golson, who has passed for 16 touchdowns and rushed for a team-high four scores. Golson has thrown TD passes to eight different receivers, but his favorite target is Will Fuller, who has grabbed 35 receptions for 504 yards and seven TDs — all team-highs.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (6-0): While the Seminoles have kept along on the field, controversy continues to surround Heisman Trophy quarterback Jameis Winston, whose off-field distractions now include Florida State reportedly investigating whether he accepted payment for signing memorabilia. All is well between the lines for the offense, though, particularly Winston and star wideout Rashad Greene, who became the school's all-time leading receiver with 215 receptions after snagging six passes in a 38-20 win at Syracuse on Saturday and leads the ACC in nearly every receiving category. The defense has allowed opponents to move the ball but has stiffened inside the 20, allowing only 10 touchdowns on 25 red-zone trips.

TRENDS:

*Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Under is 9-2-1 in Fighting Irish last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
*Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 home games.

CONSENSUS: 68.83 percent of users are backing the Fighting Irish +11.5.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 18


Is Texas A&M's offense drying up?

After a blazing hot start, Texas A&M's offense has come back down to earth recently.

In the Aggies' first five games, they averaged 51.2 points and went 34 of 63 on third downs. Over their last two weeks, they've averaged 25.5 points and are just 12 of 35 on third downs.

Kenny Hill and the No. 21 Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa for a date with the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday.

Bama is currently 14-point home dogs for the matchup.


Arkansas allowing RB's to dominate this season

If Arkansas expects to compete with No. 10 Georgia in Week 8 college football action Saturday, they're going to have to tighten up their rush defense.

The Razorbacks have allowed an average of 145.8 yards per game and 8.4 rushing first downs per game. Even without the talented Todd Gurley, Georgia's running game looked great against Mizzou in their Week 7 34-0 throttling of the Tigers.

The Bulldogs are currently 3.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 54.5 for the contest.


High-flying offense taking TCU to new heights

Texas Christian University's surge to the polls this season in large part due to their much improved offense.

The Horned Frogs boast the nation's most improved power five conference unit (+165.2 ypg) compared to last season. No. 12 TCU hosts No. 15 Oklahoma State Saturday.

TCU is currently 10-point home faves for the matchup. The total presently sits at 62.


Marshall not complacent since breaking Top 25

The Marshall Thundering Herd (No. 24) are the only ranked team from C-USA and broke the Top 25 for the first time this season, but that doesn't mean they're content where they are.

Wideout Tommy Shuler said "I feel like we're better than our ranking. I'm not satisfied with that."

Marshall faces off against Florida International in the Sunshine State Saturday. The Thundering Herd are currently 22.5-point road faves with an O/U of 55.5.


Colorado struggling on the road vs. Pac-12 teams

The Colorado Buffaloes have had a hard time on the road against their inter-conference rivals.

Colorado has lost nine straight conference road games versus fellow Pac-12 teams and are 2-13 in road games since joining the conference.

That's a troubling trend for Buffaloes backers, as they'll be away from home once again for a date with No. 25 Southern California Saturday.

The Trojans are currently 21-point home faves with a total of 62 for the matchup.


Tennessee's defense posting fantastic numbers

The Tennessee Volunteers' defense has been allowing them to hang around in games as of late.

The Vols' D has been rock solid, allowing only 192 yards passing combined over the last two weeks. As a result, Tennessee has vaulted into the top 20 in the nation in yards allowed and points against.

The Volunteers take on No. 3 Mississippi Saturday. The Rebels are currently 16.5-point home faves with a total of 46.5 for the matchup.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Some college football knowledge to ponder with Week 7 upon us........

-- UCLA lost its last seven visits to Berkeley, losing last five by 14+ points each

-- K-State covered 10 of its last 11 games as a road underdog- they’re 13-2 overall as an underdog anywhere since 2011.

-- FSU is 18-9-1 overall as home favorites under Fisher. Notre Dame is 5-2 as road underdogs under Kelly

-- Favorites covered five of last six Purdue-Minnesota games.

-- Georgia Tech won 14 of its last 16 games with North Carolina, winning last five (4-0-1 vs spread).

-- Tulane scored total of 31 points in last three games; favorites covered all six of their games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 18


SMU suspends newly anointed starting running back

SMU suspended running back K.C. Nlemchi for a violation of unspecified team rules, interim coach Tom Mason confirmed Thursday.

The winless Mustangs now face Cincinnati on Saturday without the services of their second-leading rusher.

Mason said the earliest Nlemchi could return would be Oct. 25 against Memphis.

Nlemchi had won the starting job during the Mustangs' bye week.


Texas to be without starting DB versus Iowa State

The long list of secondary issues continues to grow for the Texas Longhorns. Starting DB Jason Hall suffered a patellar tendon injury in the Red River RIvalry game last week.

Hall was thrust into the starting lineup when Chevoski Collins (dismissed from program) and Josh Turner (suspended) were removed from the roster earlier in the season.


Indiana could be down to third-string quarterback

Indiana was already dealt a big hit when they lost starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld to a shoulder injury, but backup Chris Covington could be out of the lineup as well. Though Covington was listed as the starter Tuesday, his mother said her son will not play according to Indystar.com.

That would likely elevate third-string freshman Zander Diamont into the starting role.


Meyer has history of owning new head coaches

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has a history of dominating other coaches he's faced for the first time.

The 50-year-old is 78-15 in his first time facing a new coach. No. 13 Ohio State hosts Rutgers Saturday, and sure enough, it's going to be Meyer's first time seeing Scarlet Knights' head coach Kyle Flood on the opposite side of the field.

The Buckeyes are currently 19-point home faves for the game.


Clemson plagued with injury concerns at QB

Despite Clemson picking up their first win of the year last week, the news wasn't all good, as the Tigers lost their starting quarterback in their matchup vs. Louisville.

Deshaun Watson broke a small bone in his finger and will be sidelined for at least a month. Tigers backup quarterback Cole Stoudt played well in relief, but there are injury concerns surrounding him as well.

Stoudt suffered a shoulder seperation against North Carolina State earlier in the month which held him out of practice, and required a painkilling injection just to fill in versus the Cardinals.

Stoudt is expected to be on the field Saturday when Clemson faces off against Boston College in Massachusetts Saturday.

The Eagles are currently 5-point home dogs for the matchup.


Baylor putting up huge numbers in first half

A lot has been made about the high-flying Baylor offense so far this season, but it's their ability to dominate early in games that really stands out.

The Bears are outscoring opponents 104-21 in the first quarter and 80-20 in the second quarter this year. Bryce Petty's squad travels to Morgantown for a date with the West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday.

No. 4 Baylor is currently 8-point road faves for the contest.


Arkansas could be without LB Ellis

Arkansas is likely to be without their staring MLB Brooks Ellis Saturday. The sophomore suffered a deep bone bruise that will likely keep him sidelined for some time according to coach Bret Bielema.

Ellis is second on the Razorbacks with 39 tackles this season.


Kennedy 'will be ready to go' for Texas A&M

Texas A&M has been dealing with injuries to their receiving corps that has shown up over their two straight loses. Malcome Kennedy "will be ready to go" according to coach Kevin Sumlin.

Kennedy has 33 receptions for 378 yards despite missing two-and-a-half games this season.


Kansas State's rushing defense dominating backs

The Kansas State Wildcats have been a defensive juggernaut this season, which is a big part of why they're 4-1 SU and ranked No. 14 in the country.

The Wildcats' rushing defense inparticular has allowed only 81.4 rushing yards against, while giving up just three rushing touchdowns.

Kansas State will try their best to contain Oklahoma running back Samaje Perine in Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium Saturday.

The Wildcats are currently 8-point road dogs for the contest.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

Week 8 of the college football season is a doozy, and bettors are getting after the lines accordingly. We look at some of the more notable adjustments to the NCAAF odds, with insight into that action and how the sharps are betting from Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com.

Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners – Open: -9.5, Move: -7

The Sooners have failed to cover in back-to-back games, losing outright as favorites to TCU and nearly getting knocked off by rival Texas in the Red River Shootout last weekend. Oklahoma opened a half point under the key number of 10 but was instant bet up to -10 within a minute of post. But since then, the action has been one-sided toward the road underdog.

“It's been all dog money all week culminating with a bet at +7.5 (-115) on Kansas State this evening (Friday) and we currently have Oklahoma -7 (-115), needing the favorite for a nice decision,” Kaminsky tells Covers.


Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers - Open: +9.5, Move: +7.5

While this early kickoff is making waves with its 80-point total (which actually came down from 81.5 – God Damn!), the line has dropped as many as two points at some spots and is teetering above a touchdown with early money on a powerful WVU squad that ranks eighth in total yards per game.

“West Virginia’s win last week against Texas Tech marked their fifth straight game with 500 or more yards of total offense, setting a school record,” notes Kaminsky. “We opened Baylor -9.5 and dropped it quickly to -8 on Monday with little money.”


North Carolina State Wolfpack at Louisville Cardinals – Open: -14, Move: -18

Louisville opened as a two-touchdown favorite at home to a NC State side that has managed just 14 points the past two weeks. The Cardinals got QB Will Gardner back in a loss to Clemson last week but expect a healthier passer in Week 8, which has convinced money to hit UL all week long.

“Louisville opened -14 and raced all the way up to -17 the following day on Monday,” says Kaminsky. “Later on in the week, more money came in on Louisville and we are at -18 needing the dog to put forth an effort in this game.”


Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: -18.5, Move: -22

Rutgers gets its “Welcome to the Big Ten” moment against the gatekeepers of the conference, facing an Ohio State program that has scored a combined 168 points in the three games since losing to Virginia Tech and just so happens to be off a bye to boot. The Scarlet Knights have also had a week off since beating a downtrodden Michigan team – not enough to convince the sharps though.

“Ohio State opened -18.5 and the wiseguys have been laying it all week as we currently have the Buckeyes -22 over Rutgers needing the dog for a good amount,” says Kaminsky.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida State Seminoles – Open: -11.5, Move: OTB, Move: -10

The Jameis Winston autograph controversy in Tallahassee had this line ripped from the board early in the week, with books not taking any chases with the reigning Heisman winner in hot water – again *sigh*.

The opening line has been trimmed as much as 1.5 since being reposted, with Winston expected to play. And maybe “Famous Jameis” has some good karma coming into this high-profile showdown of undefeated teams, rescuing a stray dog Friday. Eat it haters.

“Florida has been off the board all week, while we’ve been waiting to hear any news about Winston,” says Kaminsky. “It appears he has been given go-ahead to play so today we opened them as a 10-point favorite over the Irish with a total of 56.5.”

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 18


Odd total pattern for Western Michigan

This season has been a little odd when it comes to totals for Western Michigan. The Broncos are 4-2 over/under this season, with both their home games going over and their road games going over.

Western Kentucky's defense has been at fault for this odd total record. At home, the Broncos allow only 17 ppg compared to 37.25 ppg on the road.


Virginia one of top ATS plays in the nation

There are only a couple teams that can boast they have an undefeated record against the spread this season and Virginia is one of them. The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS this season and dating back to last season they are 7-0-1 ATS.

Virginia has had a difficult time covering when they visit Duke however, as they are 1-6 ATS.

The Cavaliers are 3-point road dogs.


Favorites blistering between Purdue-Minnesota

If you're looking for a underdog play in college football, it may be best to avoid Purdue. In the last 13 meetings between Purdue and Minnesota, the favorites are 10-2-1 against the spread.

The Boilermakers are currently 13.5-point road dogs.


Iowa has been automatic covering on the road

When it comes to safe road plays, Iowa may be one of the best. The Hawkeyes are a perfect 8-0 against the spread in their past eight away from home. Iowa has covered those spreads by an average of 10.5 ppg.

The Hawkeyes are 5-point road dogs against Maryland.


Western Kentucky's shootouts a boon for overs

Quietly, Western Kentucky has become one of the top over plays in college football. The Hilltoppers are 4-1 on the over/under this season.

These over's can be attributed to the Hilltoppers potent offense, which is eighth in the nation (43.0 ppg), and their porous defense, No.110 in the nation (38.4 ppg).

Western Kentucky plays FAU with a total currently set at 68.


Knight looking to capitalize on Wildcast secondary

Trevor Knight came into this season with large expectations for Sooners fans, but he has not been living up to them. The sophomore is only completing 55.1 percent of his passes which places him 93 in that category nationally, but he is facing an average Kansas State secondary Saturday.

The Wildcats have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete almost 60 percent of their passes for a 130.0 passer rating so far this season.


Wake Forest not wowing fans at BB&T with offense

High scoring affairs are not something fans at BB&T Field are treated to often. Since the start of last season, Wake Forest home games have an over/under record of 1-7, with the lone over thanks to a Demon Deacons pounding at the hands of FSU.

On average, Wake Forest scores 22.9 ppg at home and the combined scores average a mere 39.8 ppg.

The Demon Deacons host Syracuse with a total currently set at 42.5.


Baylor-West Virginia bringing the points

If there is one trademark both Baylor and West Virginia share, it is offense. So far this season the Bears and Mountaineers both rank in the top 10 of points scored and total offense. Baylor ranks first in the nation with 622.5 ypg and 52.7 ppg. Baylor's opponent, WVU, is averaging 552.2 ypg (No.8) and 36.7 ppg (No.27).

The Bears and Mountaineers have clashed twice in history ('12, '13) and the games combined scores were 133 and 115 respectively.

Baylor and WVU are currently dealing a total of 80.


Tulane still without an ATS win versus UCF

Even though Tulane's has only faced Central Florida five times in their history, they have yet to cover in a single one of those games. The Knights have covered all five spreads by an average of 12.5 points and have outscored the Green Wave 189-77.

Tulane is 19.5-point road dogs Saturday.


Offense has been severly lacking for USF

Offense has not been the trademark of South Florida football this season. The Bulls have averaged 15.6 points per game this season, which is ranks them No.121 in the country.

Only once this season the Bulls have scored more than 17 points and that was in their season opener against Western Carolina.

USF will face Tulsa who has allowed an average of 41.2 to opponents this season.


UMass winning at the window, not on the field

It has been a rough season for UMass fans this year as the teams 1-6 with their lone win coming against Kent State. However, the Minutemen are 5-1 against the spread in their last six and 5-1-1 over/under this season.

UMass hosts Eastern Michigan as 14-point home faves with a current total of 62.5.