NFL Week 7

[roccodean]

Based on 1-5*

2* Saints/det under 50.5
analysis to follow
I think this line closes 47-48

[roccodean]

1* Oakland +4 (sportsbook)

predominant line is 3.5 now...i like it at 3+

[roccodean]

1* Mia +4 sportsbook
Line predom 3.5 now

[jcindaville]

That's 2 good Cappers that like the under in the saints game



On it!

[capping-guru]

Nice looking dogs. GL!

[roccodean]

2* KC
Play at 4+
Going to wait in the weeds to see if I can get a 4.5

2* NYG +7 (-120), buying half
Very rarely buy half a point, but it is +6.5 -105 at most places so it is cheaper

Full analysis on all plays to follow

[roccodean]

2* K.C. over S.D.

Play at 4+

As of Tuesday some books have 4 and some have 4.5. I am waiting to wager on this.

The Chiefs are a boring team, so they don't get much pub but they are solid. On the flip side, the Chargers have won 5 in a row and are a trendy pick to challenge in the AFC. No doubt the Chargers pass offense is among the top in the league, but their run game is nil (29th in efficiency). The Charger's defense is average allowing 5.4 YPP and 17th in rushing/18th in passing. KC's offense is pretty good (16th in rushing and 12th in passing efficency). SD has played the second easiest schedule to date and they are +5 in fumble's. Once a ball is fumbled, the team that recovers it is strictly luck (the team that wins the TO battle is 76% ATS). There is a very strong trend on KC that is 72-33 ATS that plays on dogs off a bye and a loss. My calculated line is SD-2.5. I think the Chiefs have a great chance to get the win and I am going to wager 25% of my straight play on the money line.

2* N.Y. Giants +7 (-120) over Dallas

This is a classic NFL situational play! The Cowboys are coming off a big underdog straight up winner, while the Giants are coming off an embarrassing shutout division prime time loss. This leads to over reaction and an inflated line. My calculated line on this game is Dallas -4.8. If you listen to the talking heads, they are talking about how good the Cowboy's defense is, but they are allowing 6.1 YPP (second to last in NFL) and are 30th in run defense. Their run game has been strong, but the Giants D has been pretty good (17th vs run and 7th vs the pass). There are two GREAT trends favoring the G men. One is 113-58 ATS (66%) playing on teams off shut out loss and 2 other factors. Another is 98-46 ATS playing on teams that lost ATS by 21 (plus other factors).

1* Oakland +4 over Ariz

Play at 3+

This is a great situation for the Raiders. Winless home dogs versus non division opponents have shown to be very profitable in the NFL. The Arizona D that was so good this year has been averaging 6 YPP. And their offense has been below average (17th in passing efficiency and 32nd in rushing efficiency). They average only 4.9 YPP, so they are -1.1 yards/play differential is 2nd to last in the NFL. They have benefited from being +8 in turnovers and they have yet to throw an interception this year (a stat that will obviously not last). Give me the Raiders!

1* Miami +3.5 over Chicago

Play at 3.5+

As of Wednesday consensus line is 3.5

I think Miami is one of the most underrated teams in the league (along with KC). Miami's run offense is 6th (efficiency rating) and will be facing a Bears D that is 18th versus the run. The Phins D is one of the best in the league; 6th vs the run and 11th vs the pass. They only allow 4.7 yards/play (2nd in league). Contrary to the Bears who allow 5.9 yards/play (22nd). My calculated line is Chicago -2.5, so getting over a FG is a great value play. I have a strong 132-61 ATS trend against the Bears because of their dog road win last week and poor defense.

[jcindaville]

Thanks for the write ups Rock!

[roccodean]

would grab kc +4 now..will be gone soon

[LuckyLuch]

Aye Yo RocCo, Good Luck!

[crazy1464]

Great picks !

[jt4545]

Good luck today

[Kaptain]

gl today roccodean

[roccodean]

: Again, killing every line. Again, good long term but means ish unless we cash!

[flashypants]

Gl pal