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**StarDust Bum** · 10-07-2014, 01:29 PM

NBA: Win Totals Released

Basketballs are bouncing again. With Media Day in the books throughout the league, coaches will get to the task of developing chemistry and carving out roles before the regular season opens at month's end. Practices are far more important than games this time of year, especially given the logistics of the schedule, since the NBA takes advantage of exhibitions to branch out to other markets. Some people won't wager on the NFL preseason, but compared to the NBA version, the Snoopy Bowl may as well be the Super Bowl.

With that little warning not to touch that October 15 doubleheader featuring the Kings and Nets at Beijing's MasterCard Arena and the Raptors-Celtics in Cumberland County, Maine, we'll move on to what you should be looking at, win totals and futures.

The Westgate Superbook released projected win numbers and divisional odds on September 30, and while it's still too early to go full preview on you guys, there is some knowledge worth dropping that should help you capitalize, barring injury.

Phoenix, which is going to give teams fits given their pressure and how hard they play under Jeff hornacek, looks extremely attractive at 42.5. They'll wear out opponents on the second night of back-to-backs, which there are more of now that the NBA has opted for a week-long All-Star break. Back-to-backs is also a major motivating factor in calling for the under for the defending champion Spurs, which appear to come loaded with a venomous trap line at 56.5. The number looks low enough considering they won 62 last season and 58 the year before, but this is a franchise that rightfully takes the cautious approach in resting players and seems even more likely to do so this year, another year older and eyeing only a second straight title, knowing fresh legs are the only way they'll reach that goal.

While the Los Angeles Lakers won't be any good, they're being disrespected with a total set at 31.5. What's that really saying? Kobe Bryant, avoid losing 50 games. Heck, even 32-50 works, so don't lose 51.

With improved chemistry likely in the first year under Byron Scott, the Lakers are likely to pull a few upsets that would otherwise seem unlikely. Between Bryant, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill, the Lakers have prideful veterans who can catch you napping. Last year's abomination won 27 times, so if Bryant stays healthy, they'll manage to at least lose "only" 50.

Houston and Dallas are each at 49.5, further tying together the Southwest Division rivals who haven't shied away from taking shots at one another this offseason. Since Memphis' projected win total is at 48.5, odds are that at least one of these three teams winds up falling well short of expectations. The Grizzlies "grit and grind" approach seems better-suited for the postseason, so the call here is to expect they'll wind up on the under side.

In the Eastern Conference, Cleveland, placed at 58.5, is projected as the top team in the entire NBA. Considering they added pieces like Shawn Marion, Mike Miller and James Jones for cheap and could still wind up with Ray Allen, they've got a shot at exceeding expectations despite LeBron James originally trying to deflect pressure upon his departure from Miami. That as pre-Kevin Love, so don't sleep on the Cavaliers relishing taking everyone's best shot. The flip side is that the team is filled with guys who still have to learn how to win consistently for the first time, so there may be periods where the pressure comes to be too much.

The Charlotte Hornets being placed at 45.5 wins also qualifies as a potential trap line since the franchise has never won more than 44 games as the Bobcats, going 43-39 last season. The average bettor's natural inclination is to perceive that number as too high, but that would be overlooking the projected growth of Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist under talented second-year coach Steve Clifford with a difference-maker like Lance Stephenson coming on board.

The LeBron-less Heat are actually projected to finish behind the Hornets, with their win total set at 43.5. If Dwyane Wade can stay healthy, the Heat could blow that figure away on bravado alone, but that's clearly a major if with no room for error or a Wade maintenance program available this season. Paul George-less Indiana has been placed in Lakers territory at 32.5, and judging by the defeated attitude of the team at Media Day, I'd go under. It's going to be on David West to be a driving force as a leader and performer, and he can frankly only do so much.
NBA: Division Odds

Divisional odds set by the esteemed Jay Kornegay and his staff at Westgate also offer some interesting developments. Toronto is rightfully viewed as the Atlantic Division favorite (5-to-7) ahead of Brooklyn (5-to-2) and New York (7-to-2), and in my opinion, are a great bet. The Central Division is Cleveland's to win at 2-to-3, which is manageable only because the Bulls should be in the mix all season and have been placed at 6-to-5. Detroit and Indiana are each at 50-to-1 while Milwaukee pays 100-to-1. I shouldn't have to warn you not to flush money down the toilet chasing those longshots.

The Southeast sees the Wizards favored at 11-to-10, ahead of Charlotte (11-to-4), Miami (3-to-1) and Atlanta (8-to-1), so I'd stay away from making a move here since this will be hotly contested as the stubborn Heat lifers seek to stay on top.

For reasons stated above, I don't like backing San Antonio (5-to-8) even though it is the rightful favorite in the Southwest Division. Take your pick out of Dallas (5-to-1), Houston (5-to-1) and Memphis (7-to-1) if you're going to make a move.

Oklahoma City (1-to-4) is too heavy a favorite in the Northwest Division considering it's injury history, while Portland (3-to-1) is getting the right amount of respect as a potential winner that it's not worthwhile to back them to pull it off. Denver (20-to-1), Utah (100-to-1) and Minnesota (100-to-1) aren't making the playoffs, much less knocking off OKC or Rip City.

The Pacific Division is the Clippers to lose again, so with improved organizational stability and and a year under their belt playing for Doc Rivers, 5-to-9 seems like friendly odds worth pulling the trigger on. Golden State at 9-to-5 doesn't seem friendly at all, especially given the need for a grace period as Steve Kerr gets acclimated to coaching. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were great at the FIBA World Cup this summer, but participating could lead to heavier legs and lower shooting percentages as the grind wears on them. The Suns are an appealing longshot at 10-to-1. The Lakers and Kings, both 50-to-1, are not.

Of all the division favorites, the Raptors and Clippers look like the best bets. The odds aren't outlandish and their advantages over their opposition are worthy of backing.
NBA: Sportsbook.ag Individual Props

A few of Sportsbook.ag's NBA futures also stand out. LeBron James is the MVP favorite at +160, a number I'd jump in on if you choose to ride the King since it should end up closer to even money as the season opener draws closer. Elevating Cleveland to heights it hasn't seen since he left offers a built-in advantage, since a team that was a massive disappointment and failed to make the playoffs is about to make a run at the NBA's best record. If you want to go with the surprise of Kevin Love putting up massive numbers that can't be ignored, he's a tremendous value pick at +4000. A Kevin Durant repeat can net +300, while Derrick Rose is at +1200, perhaps counting on a sentimental factor if he's returned to his previous form. Clippers teammates Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are available at +1500, which makes them both heavy favorites above Kobe Bryant, entering his 19th season at +6000. That's the same level that third-fiddle Kyrie Irving and formers Lakers teammate Dwight Howard. Interestingly, Sportsbook.ag favors James Harden over the Rockets center, placing him at +3000. It seems they're not placing much emphasis on the defensive factor, since the big man will merit bonus points making up for his tag-team partner's shortcomings on that end of the floor.

Coach of the Year odds at Sportsbook.ag list Gregg Popovich as the favorite (+275), but it's doubtful he wins a third in four years. No one is sprinkling dirt on his Spurs this season, which has been a prerequisite. Cleveland's David Blatt, at +500, is the far more attractive option considering he'll have to manage high expectations while acclimating himself as a first-time NBA coach. It remains to be seen if media will reward him if he's successful, not holding his massive talent against him like they did Erik Spoelstra, who failed to obtain individual hardware despite being deserving during James' Heat tenure. Spoelstra has an opportunity to distinguish himself if the Heat thrive without James, checking in as the best value bet at +3500. It's wild to see him listed behind rookie coaches Steve Kerr (+2000) and Derek Fisher (+2500), though both will be highly visible with the Warriors and Knicks. Lionel Hollins, back in the league with Brooklyn, could be appealing at +4000, especially since he appears to be inheriting a healthy, determined Brook Lopez. Chicago's Tom Thibodeau (+650) and his former boss, L.A. Clippers coach Doc Rivers (+800), check in third and fourth in terms of odds, respectively. The early choice here would be Blatt.

As was the case last season, there's no overwhelming favorite in the Rookie of Year race. Milwaukee's Jabari Parker (+325) landed in the best situation to put up numbers immediately, since the Bucks need a go-to scorer and he embraced going to a smaller market, loving the fact he slipped to No. 2 behind Andrew Wiggins (+450). The top pick also has the opportunity to play a massive role after being dealt to Minnesota in exchange for Love, while 2013 No. 2 pick New lens Noel (+600) is definitely the choice here based on his potential impact. Even though the 76ers won't win many games, I think Noel will impress enough to follow Michael Carter-Williams' act and net Philadelphia a second straight award. If you're out to buy a new boat or piece of real estate and covet a larger longshot, take a look at Atlanta's Adrian Payne (+5000). Not only is he more seasoned as a 23-year-old, Payne also will have an opportunity to carve put a role due to his versatility, potentially stealing some of Mike Scott's minutes and playing off Al Horford and Paul Millsap.

Sportsbook.ag also has a Winning State prop for this season's NBA champion, offering up the three Texas powers at +400, a great deal considering the Spurs are available for that on their own. The Rockets (+2500) and Mavericks (+3000) are excellent throw-ins. By comparison, California is at +800, getting you the Clippers (+1100), Warriors (+3000), Lakers (+10,000) and Kings (+30,000), an assortment of flavors that don't look as appealing as a package. Hopeful Knicks and Nets fans can have New York at +2500, while Florida is available at +4000. Clearly, there is little respect for a Heat revival or the Magic's rebuilding efforts. All other states, which gets you the Cavs (+300), Thunder (+600), Bulls (+850), Wizards (+4000),Trail Blazers (+4500) and Grizzlies (+6000), is the prohibitive favorite at -300, delivering the likely Eastern Conference NBA Finals representative unless Miami rises up, in addition to a few West contenders.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-08-2014, 12:34 PM

Lopez, Williams sharp in Nets' opener

October 7, 2014

NEW YORK (AP) - Brook Lopez scored 20 points in his return from an injury-shortened season, and Deron Williams also had a strong return from surgery in the Brooklyn Nets' 111-94 victory over Maccabi Tel Aviv on Tuesday night.

Williams had 17 points and seven assists in Brooklyn's preseason opener. The Nets now head to China, where they will play exhibition games against the Sacramento Kings in Shanghai and Beijing.

Lopez played in only 17 games last season before breaking his right foot in December. He had surgery to repair that injury and later another procedure on his left ankle.

He shot 8 of 12 Tuesday while playing into the fourth quarter.

Williams made it through last season but struggled with ankle problems for a second straight campaign. He had surgery on both ankles during the offseason.

Joe Johnson scored 14 points, and Andrei Kirilenko and Mirza Teletovic each added 13 for the Nets. Kevin Garnett started his 20th NBA season with six points and five rebounds.

Jeremy Pargo finished with 27 points, seven assists, six rebounds and a thunderous dunk in the final minutes for Maccabi, the Euroleague champions who had plenty of crowd support in Barclays Center, with Israeli flags all around the arena.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-08-2014, 07:11 PM

NBA

10/08/2014

Series Prices | 1st Half Lines | Injuries | Reports | Trends | Matchups

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

7:05 PM EDT
601 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS -3.5 -05 -3 -11 / -3 / -3 -13 -3.5 -153
602 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 193.5o17 195.5 / 196.5 / 196 195.5 +138
CHA-G-Gerald Henderson-OUT

7:05 PM EDT
603 WASHINGTON WIZARDS 189o10 194.5 / 194 / 194.5 195 +107
604 NEW ORLEANS PELICANS -2.5 -05 -2.5 / -2.5 EVEN / -2 -05 -1.5 -118

7:35 PM EDT
605 NEW YORK KNICKS -1.5 -05 -1.5 -05 / -1.5 -1 -107
606 BOSTON CELTICS 191o05 193.5 / 192 / 193 192.5 -103
BOS-F-Jeff Green-Probable | BOS-G-Rajon Rondo-OUT | TV: NBA, DTV: 216

8:05 PM EDT
607 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES -3.5 -03 -3.5 -03 / -3.5 -4 -161
608 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 187.5o05 191 / 190 / 189.5 190 +145

9:05 PM EDT
609 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -1.5 -05 -1.5 -05 -1.5 -116
610 DENVER NUGGETS 199o05 199o05 / 199o13 / 199 199.5 +105
OKC-F-Serge Ibaka-OUT | DEN-F-Danilo Gallinari-OUT

**StarDust Bum** · 10-08-2014, 07:15 PM

A PARLAY FOR FUN:

[Ticket #: 186728291] PARLAY (10 TEAMS)

10/08/2014 @ 04:05 PM NBA [602] PHILADELPHIA +3 1.91

10/08/2014 @ 04:05 PM NBA [602] TOTAL u195 1.91

(CHARLOTTE vrs PHILADELPHIA)

10/08/2014 @ 04:05 PM NBA [603] TOTAL o191.5 1.91

(WASHINGTON vrs NEW ORLEANS) (Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL)

10/08/2014 @ 04:05 PM NBA [604] NEW ORLEANS -2.5 1.91 (Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL)

10/08/2014 @ 04:35 PM NBA [605] NEW YORK -1.5 1.91 (XL Center - Hartford, CT)

10/08/2014 @ 04:35 PM NBA [605] TOTAL o192 1.91

(NEW YORK vrs BOSTON) (XL Center - Hartford, CT)

10/08/2014 @ 05:05 PM NBA [607] MEMPHIS -3.5 1.91 (Resch Center - Green Bay, WI)

10/08/2014 @ 05:05 PM NBA [608] TOTAL u189 1.91

(MEMPHIS vrs MILWAUKEE) (Resch Center - Green Bay, WI)

10/08/2014 @ 06:05 PM NBA [609] TOTAL o199 1.91

(OKLAHOMA CITY vrs DENVER)

10/08/2014 @ 06:05 PM NBA [610] DENVER +1.5 1.91

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2014, 02:02 AM

OKC prepares to play without MVP Durant

October 13, 2014

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - For the first time, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be forced to play without Kevin Durant for more than a handful of games.

The team announced Sunday that the league's reigning MVP would be out for an undetermined length of time with a fracture in his right foot, at the base of the small toe. Typically, the injury requires surgery and six to eight weeks of healing.

The Thunder haven't officially determined what's next, although general manager Sam Presti said surgery would be likely.

The Thunder will play without Durant on Tuesday night in a preseason game against Memphis.

''No one's feeling sorry for us,'' Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks said. ''I can honestly say I did not receive any text messages from coaches around the league looking to postpone the season.''

Opponents have seen more than enough of Durant. Since he entered the league in 2007, he leads the league in points and minutes played. He has missed just 16 regular season games in his seven-year career and has never missed more than eight games in a season.

His longest absence was a seven-game stretch during the 2008-09 season because of a sprained right ankle. He missed one game last season, one game the season before, played in all 82 games during the 2009-10 season and all 66 games during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.

''When you look at Kevin, you see all the great offense of abilities and leadership qualities, but you never really think about the toughness, for him to be able to play all those years and play just about every game at a high level, and he continues to get back up,'' Brooks said.

Point guard Russell Westbrook, who has missed significant time the past two years with a knee injury, admires how durable Durant has been over the years.

''Very, very impressive,'' Westbrook said. ''He's probably one of the hardest working guys I've seen. He comes in every day and does what he's supposed to do. He doesn't take days off in practice. He tries to compete every day. It's definitely unfortunate, but he's a strong guy mentally and physically, and he'll get back to his better form.''

Brooks said Durant is struggling with the idea of missing games, even though it's the preseason.

''He's about as good as anybody can possibly be,'' Brooks said. ''One of the things I love about Kevin is he loves to play. He loves the game of basketball. He's very passionate about it. It's not a hobby for him.''

Durant felt discomfort in the foot on Saturday and told the Thunder staff, leading to the diagnosis. Brooks said the injury could have been much worse if Durant had waited to get help.

''This is a minor, minor setback in the big scope of things,'' Brooks said. ''He's going to come back in no time, and like I said, our goal is to be a better team when he gets back from where we are today without him.''

The injury puts more of the focus on Westbrook, an explosive scoring point guard who averaged 26.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 8.1 assists during last year's playoffs. This season on media day, Brooks called Westbrook the best point guard in the NBA.

Westbrook said his role won't change.

''It's not about me, it's about our team,'' he said. ''I can't win games by myself. I can't do anything by myself, so I kind of want to take the attention off of me and put it on more of the team. Everybody keeps asking what I'm going to do and how I'm going to change. I think it's more about our team, and what we can do to get better.''

Westbrook said while he fought through injuries, he learned a lot from the way Durant stepped his game up. With Westbrook sidelined after Christmas until the All-Star break last season, Durant took control of the MVP race by averaging 35 points, 7.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists while leading the Thunder to a 19-7 record.

''He did what he needed to do to help us win games,'' Westbrook said. ''He continued to have confidence in his teammates.''

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2014, 01:11 PM

NBA Southeast Division Betting Preview

Washington Wizards (2013-14: 43-38 SU, 42-38-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +180

Season wins total: 49.5

Why To Bet The Wizards: With Bradley Beal and John Wall, the Wizards have one of the best backcourts in the NBA. Dion Waiters might think otherwise, but I think Beal hit the nail on the head in his reply to Waiters when the two had a war of words on Twitter a few weeks back: "you gotta win a playoff game first before you can talk. You gotta be a starter first." The signing of Marcin Gortat gives Washington one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference for five more years, and at 29 years old the Polish Hammer is in the prime of his career. Paul Pierce may be well past his prime, but he proved in last season's playoffs that he can still be a difference maker.

Why Not To Bet The Wizards: They lost a key defender when Trevor Ariza signed with Houston this summer. Washington was mediocre at best defensively, ranking in the middle of the pack in opponent's field goal percentage last season. At the age of 37, it's asking a lot of Paul Pierce to chase around opposing small forwards night in and night out.

Season win total pick: Over 49.5 wins

Miami Heat (2013-14: 54-27 SU, 37-42-2 ATS)

Odds to win division: +230

Season wins total: 43.5

Why To Bet The Heat: Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade have a lot to prove this year, and both players have welcomed the challenge. While Luol Deng won't replace LeBron James, he still gives the Heat a formidable Big Three. The biggest thing this team might have going for it, is that they should be hungrier this year.

Why Not To Bet The Heat: Miami will be competitive if Wade can stay healthy, but that's a big if. He missed 28 games last year, and he's been plagued by knee injuries in recent seasons. The Heat didn't just lose LeBron James in the off-season, they also lost Ray Allen and Shane Battier. They are going to need Bosh to step up an carry the load as the first option on offense, while also counting on him to defend opposing centers while at a significant size disadvantage. It remains to be seen if Bosh can rise to the challenge.

Season win total pick: Over 43.5 wins.

Atlanta Hawks (2013-14: 38-44 SU, 37-43-1 ATS)

Odds to win the division: +410

Season wins total: 41.5

Why to bet the Hawks: They have been to the post-season in seven straight seasons, and they did it last year without Al Horford who went down with an injury in the first half of the season. With the acquisition of Thabo Sefolosha, and Horford back healthy, there is plenty of reason to expect improvement.

Why not to bet the Hawks: The bad news for Atlanta is that while they hope to be better, the competition in the East is going to be much tougher than it was last year, and 38 wins isn't likely going to be enough to get into the playoffs. The Hawks did little in the off-season to address their shortcomings on the boards. Altanta ranked 28th in the NBA averaging 40 rebounds per game last season.

Season wins total pick: Under 41.5

Charlotte Hornets (2013-14: 43-39 SU, 46-32-3 ATS)

Odds to win division: +335

Season wins total: 45

Why To Bet The Hornets: This appears to be a young team on the rise, coming off an inspiring post-season appearance last year. They acquired Lance Stephenson via free agency, and Noah Vonleh in the draft. Veteran Al Jefferson was a nice fit last season, averaging over 20 points and 10 boards, for his best season since 2009. He has a solid supporting cast with Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Cody Zeller all young players with their best years ahead of them.

Why Not To Bet The Hornets: Jefferson is as reliable as they come when healthy, but at this stage in his career it's more than likely that he will miss games with recurring plantar fasciitis, and other ailments. The loss of Josh McRoberts might leave a hole that proves difficult to fill, as his replacement Marvin Williams doesn't have the same play-making ability.

Season wins total: Over 45 wins

Orlando Magic (2013-14: 23-59 SU, 34-44-4 ATS)

Odds to win division: +5,500

Season wins total: 28

Why To Bet The Magic: It's not easy finding positive things to say about a team that finished with just 23 wins last season, and traded away it's leading scorer. That being said, they won't have to show much of an improvement to surpass expectations, simply because they have set the bar so low.

Why Not To Bet Magic: This team is clearly in a rebuilding stage, and nothing they did this summer would suggest that they have any intentions of competing this season. The plan for the future likely involves getting one of the top picks in the 2015 draft, and winning more than 28 games would put a wrinkle in that plan.

Season wins total pick: Under 28 wins

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The Bum's NBA October Best Bets-Trends,Stats,News !

The Bum's NBA October Best Bets-Trends,Stats,News !

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