NFL Week 6

[roccodean]

2* Miami +3.5

[roccodean]

1* nyg +3

[baseballdave]

good luck in the nfl this week buddy !!!

[jcindaville]

Let's get a broom ready Rock!!

[mavskidd02]

good luck and thanks rocco

[roccodean]

2* Miami +3.5 over Green Bay
I think Miami is grossly under valued in the market place and GB is over valued because of their name/past years and their star players. The Packers strength is their passing game (6th in passing efficiency), but the Phins pass D is pretty good (11th in pass efficiency defense). GB won't be able to run the ball because Miami's run D is 5th in run defense efficiency. Miami's running game is their strength (5th in running efficiency) and face a GB run defense that is 23rd in the league. GB leads the league in turnover ratio (+6) which has made them look better than they actually are. My calculated line is a pick em' so getting over a FG is a great play here. I also have a 104-71 ATS trend favoring the Phins based on their bye week and GB's blowout loss last week. Miami's lack of flash is giving them great line value here!

1* NYG +3 over Phil
I have been waiting to bet against the Eagles for the last few weeks and not I finally have the opportunity. The Eagles have scored 7 TD's on defensive/special teams...this is not going to last. The Eagles dominant offense last year is sputtering this year; they are 28th in rushing and 19th in passing. Defensively, their run D is pretty good (8th), but their pass D is very bad (28th). Conversely, the Giants have improved every week and their offense is 14th and 17th in rushing and passing efficiency, respectively. The Giants D is much better than the Eagles; they are 12th vs the rush and 8th vs the pass. My calculated line is NYG +0.5. There is a very good 152-75 ATS trend favoring the Giants. G-Men!!

1* Buffalo +3 over NE
Possible 2* upgrade
Play at +3 or better
This is a classic example to an overreaction. After NE's performance in KC everyone thought they were terrible and the line move reflected that as they closed 3 point dogs at home. Now, after their blowout win vs. the Bengals people think they are back to the "old" Patriots...but I don't. Truth is, they aren't as bad as they looked in KC, but not as good as they looked last week. What they are is a below average team. This line implies that the Pats are 6 points better than the Bills...no way. The Pats offense is terrible; 22nd in rushing and 23rd in passing (efficiency rating). Buffalo's offense is just as bad, but I think Orton is an upgrade and as long as he eliminates EJ's mistakes the Bills D is good enough to compete. Ironically, NE's D has been their strength, but their run D is bad (22nd) which will allow Buffalo to run the ball effectively. Buffalo is a top 5 D that is 3rd vs the run and 9th vs the pass. My calculated line is Buff +1 so the value is on the dog!

[mavskidd02]

Is passing/rushing 'efficiency' simply ypp? Or is it something different. The average looker would think the Pats are 14th in ypg rushing which isn't as bad as the 22nd in efficiency you have here.

[roccodean]

Is passing/rushing 'efficiency' simply ypp? Or is it something different. The average looker would think the Pats are 14th in ypg rushing which isn't as bad as the 22nd in efficiency you have here.

Efficiency is different than YPP. It uses various factors like taking out kneel downs, etc.

[CashMoney]

Good luck with the pros Rocco

[Udog]

Good luck tomorrow, rocco! Thanks!

[roccodean]

1* pats under 45

[roccodean]

Beating current numbers at sharp books through key number of 3 means little in short term but good indicator long term. Let's cash some tickets !

[Kaptain]

gl today my man............thanlks