Announcement

**Udog** · 10-05-2014, 09:24 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Giants, -4-- Osi Umenyiora comes back to the Swamp.

5) Bears, +2.5-- Chicago got spanked by Packers last week.

T3) Bengals, -1-- New England as a home dog? Wow.
T3) Chargers, -6.5-- San Diego traded the draft pick that Falcons took Michael Vick with. If Geno Smith struggles, will we see Vick here?

2) Ravens, +3.5-- Indy beat Titans/Jaguars after 0-2 start.

1) Broncos, -7-- Not a lot of faith in unbeaten Cardinals here.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 14-10

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Summarizing a super sports Saturday.......
Damn, what a day.........

13) This week was the second time ever (Nov 4, 1990 was the other), that four of the country's top six teams lost in the same week. Back then, Virginia was #1, Illinois was #5. Times have changed.

12) Ole Miss 23, Alabama 17-- Crimson Tide scored a defensive TD with 0:42 left in first half to take a 14-3 lead; Ole Miss looked dead at that point, but they rallied to score two TDs in last 5:30 for the win. Ole Miss and Miss State had never both been 4-0 in the same season- now they're both 5-0.

11) TCU 37, Oklahoma 33-- Horned Frogs survived three turnovers, 12 penalties to gets its biggest win since joining the Big X. TCU led 14-0 early; winning TD was an INT return for a TD with 14:12 left. Frogs converted 10 of 18 on third down.

10) Mississippi State 48, Texas A&M 31-- Probably best sports day in history of the Magnolia State; Bulldogs ran ball for 289 yards, passed for 270. Only 11 of 77 plays that State ran came on third down. SEC is a meat grinder.

9) Notre Dame 17, Stanford 14-- Irish drove 65 yards in nine plays in 2:00 in the rain to pull this game out, scoring winning TD with 1:10 left. Penalties in this game: Stanford: 9-66. Notre Dame: 1-10. Purely a coincidence, I'm sure.

8) Auburn 41, LSU 7-- Auburn gained 566 yards and crushed an LSU team that is deficient at QB right now. Two of the previous three teams to beat LSU by at least 21 points won the national championship: Florida in '08, Alabama in '11.

7) Giants 2, Nationals 1 (18)-- Rookie manager Matt Williams took Zimmerman out with two out in 9th inning, when he was pitching a 3-hit shutout but after he walked a hitter, with Buster Posey coming up. Zimmerman had retired 20 batters in a row before the walk. 3.5 hours later, Washington lost and heads west down two games to none.

Side note: There have been two 18-inning games in playoff history; Tim Hudson started both of them, the other coming in 2005.

6) Miami O 42, UMass 41-- Minutemen led 41-21 at halftime, but didn't score in the second half and lost to a Red Hawks squad that had lost 21 games in a row. Oy.

5) Northwestern 20, Wisconsin 14-- Badgers have inexplicably lost their last four visits to Evanston. Badgers had 12 completions, four picks. Hard to win when your turnover ratio is -4. Whatever Northwestern pays Pat Fitzgerald, it ain't enough.

4) Kentucky 45, South Carolina 38-- Second week in row Gamecocks lost in 4th quarter after they led by two TDs in last 10:00. Carolina had 32 first downs, gained 500 yards and lost. Kentucky's defense scored the winning TD. South Carolina and Michigan should be matched up in the worst bowl game in December.

3) Utah 30, UCLA 28-- Utes sacked Brett Hundley 10 times, scored winning points with 0:34 left as a wacky Saturday ended with the Bruins losing in the Rose Bowl, a week after Utah lost to Washington State as a 14-point favorite. I spend a lot of my time researching this stuff and on Sunday mornings, much of it makes no sense.

2) Utah State 35, BYU 20 (Friday)-- BYU lost QB Hill for year (broken leg), as the Aggies beat BYU for just the second time in last 14 meetings. State QB Garretson is grandson of former NBA ref Darrell Garretson, nephew of ref Ron Garretson.

1) Arizona State 38, USC 34-- ASU QB Mike Bercovici will probably never play in the NFL; hell, if Taylor Kelly hadn't gotten hurt, he may never have started a college game, but Bercovici was 27-45 for 510 yards against USC in the Coliseum, passing for two TDs in the last 2:43, as ASU stunned the Trojans on a 46-yard TD pass on the last play of the game. Good for him.

**Udog** · 10-05-2014, 09:27 AM

MLB
Dunkel

LA Angels at Kansas City
The Royals look to clinch the ALDS series tonight and face an Angels team that is 0-7 in C. J. Wilson's last 7 starts as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Detroit (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 16.621; Detroit (Price) 15.559
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Kansas City (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.109; Kansas City (Shields) 16.756
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (98 - 66) at DETROIT (90 - 74) - 3:35 PM
MIGUEL GONZALEZ (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 15-26 (-15.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 99-66 (+38.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 21-16 (+17.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 47-35 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 24-15 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 38-21 (+19.4 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 51-37 (+23.2 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 88-59 (+32.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 55-42 (+15.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 47-27 (+26.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 33-15 (+21.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 90-74 (-5.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 65-60 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 87-71 (-5.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 27-27 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 37-36 (-10.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PRICE is 9-14 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-3 (+1.4 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

MIGUEL GONZALEZ vs. DETROIT since 1997
GONZALEZ is 0-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.067.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
PRICE is 7-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 2.82 and a WHIP of 1.237.
His team's record is 10-7 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-7. (+1.5 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA ANGELS (98 - 66) at KANSAS CITY (92 - 73) - 7:35 PM
C.J. WILSON (L) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 5-3 (+3.1 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

C.J. WILSON vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
WILSON is 4-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.257.
His team's record is 6-1 (+4.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.1 units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
SHIELDS is 6-3 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.283.
His team's record is 10-3 (+7.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 5

Orioles-Tigers
Norris is making his first postseason start; he is 4-0, 2.08 in his last five starts, but was 0-2, 6.39 against Detroit this season. Orioles won seven of his last nine road starts.

Price is 0-4, 6.15 in four career playoff starts; he won a game in relief for Rays in '08 playoffs. Price is 1-0, 1.69 in his last two starts, 0-1, 5.40 vs Baltimore this year, allowing three runs in five IP.

Baltimore scored twelve 8th-inning runs in first two series games, rallying from down 6-3 in 8th inning in Game 2- they've won last three games overall.

Tigers' bullpen imploded in first two series games, allowing 11 runs in 4.2 IP. Detroit lost four of its last five games overall.

Norris 19-9.............10-28 first inning
Price 14-9/6-5.........12-34 first inning

Angels-Royals
Wilson is 1-5, 4.82 in nine playoff starts; he is 3-1, 4.68 in his last five starts, with one terrible start skewing the RA. Wilson is 1-0, 4.50 in two starts against Kansas City this season.

Shields is 0-1, 4.74 in his last four starts, 2-4, 5.26 in seven playoff starts. He allowed four runs in six IP in his only '14 start against the Angels.

Angels lost five games in a row, scoring 8 runs; they're 3-9 in last 12 overall; Angels are 10-21 in playoff games since winning the '02 World Series.

Royals won six of last seven games, last three in extra innings; they scored 22 runs in last four games. They're 5-6 in their last eleven home games.

Wilson 16-15.........7-31 first inning
Shields 22-13..........9-35 first inning

MLB

Sunday, October 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:45 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Baltimore's last 24 games on the road
Baltimore is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games

7:37 PM
LA ANGELS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
LA Angels are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB

Sunday, October 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's MLB Playoff betting preview
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (-180, 7.5)

The Detroit Tigers traded for David Price at the deadline so that the former Cy Young Award winner could pitch meaningful games for the team in the postseason. It won’t get any more meaningful than Sunday, when the Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles in Game 3 of the American League Division Series needing a win to stay alive. Detroit is hoping for some length from the left-hander so it can avoid using a bullpen that has been a disaster in the first two games.

The Tigers have allowed a total of 12 runs in the eighth inning in the series, with setup men Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria combining to surrender nine while recording only four outs. The bullpen breakdowns have obscured great efforts from Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez, who have combined for seven RBIs to pace Detroit's offense. The Orioles are getting more balanced production from their offense, and pinch-hitter Delmon Young delivered a go-ahead, three-run double in Friday’s 7-6 victory to give the AL East champions a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five series.

TV: 3:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23 ERA) vs. Tigers LH David Price (15-12, 3.26)

Gonzalez allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight starts to lock up a spot in the postseason rotation, breezing through five scoreless frames in his final regular-season turn. The 30-year-old Mexican did not yield a run in three of his last five starts but completed seven innings in only one of those turns. Gonzalez faced Detroit twice early in the regular season and was ripped for a total of nine runs – eight earned – and 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Price pitched Detroit to the AL Central title by striking out eight over 7 1/3 scoreless innings against Minnesota on Sunday. The Vanderbilt product was up-and-down over the last five weeks of the season, allowing five or more runs in three of his final seven outings. Price is 1-4 with a 5.06 ERA in his postseason career and was lit up for seven runs in as many innings in the ALDS as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays last season.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Orioles have not won a postseason series since beating the Seattle Mariners in the 1997 ALDS.

2. Tigers CF Rajai Davis (abdomen) left Game 2 in the fourth inning and is day-to-day.

3. Baltimore DH Nelson Cruz is 4-for-8 in the series and batting .400 in eight career postseason games against Detroit.

Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals (-128, 7)

The Kansas City Royals look to complete a stunning sweep when they host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of their best-of-five American League Division Series on Sunday. Kansas City won both of the first two games in extra innings on the road to shock Los Angeles, which had the AL’s best record in the regular season. “It’s not the position we want to be in,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters. “Nobody has their head buried in the sand, we need a three-game winning streak.”

Mike Moustakas hit the game-winning homer in the opener and Eric Hosmer smacked the decisive blast in Game 2 as the Royals appeared to play looser than Los Angeles, the heavy favorites. “It’s fun to be the underdog,” Hosmer told reporters. “It’s fun to realize and go out there and play and you don’t have anything to lose and just let it all on the line.” Angels star Mike Trout has been one of his club’s underachievers, going hitless in eight at-bats in the series.

TV: 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels LH C.J. Wilson (13-10, 4.51 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (14-8, 3.30)

Wilson has struggled mightily on the road, going 4-8 with a 5.31 ERA in 16 starts. He was 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two outings against Kansas City this season, and Scioscia is counting on a big performance. “C.J. dissects his ability and what he is trying to do on the mound more than anybody I’ve been around,” Scioscia said. “He has to find the balance between finding that edge and keeping his stuff where it needs to be.”

Shields somehow has the nickname “Big Game James” despite his postseason ERA rising to 5.26 in seven career starts (2-4 record) after allowing four runs and five hits in five-plus innings against Oakland in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game. He is 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 career starts against the Angels, and closer Greg Holland said he is the key to Kansas City's starting rotation. “He leads by example, taking the ball every five days and giving his heart and soul,” Holland said in a press conference. “I think once you start rattling off good start after good start, it kind of builds on itself.”

WALK-OFFS:

1. Kansas City is the first team in major-league history to play three consecutive extra-inning contests to begin a postseason - and win them.

2. Royals 2B Omar Infante, who is hitless in eight at-bats in the series, is 7-for-15 with two doubles against Wilson.

3. Angels LF Josh Hamilton, who is 0-for-9 in the series, is just 3-for-25 with 11 strikeouts versus Shields.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB

Sunday, October 5

Umpire trend you need to know for Orioles-Tigers

The Detroit Tigers and the Baltimore Orioles face off at Comerica Park in Game 3 of their AL Divisional Series Sunday, and there's one particular trend bettors who plan on wagering on the game need to be aware of.

Umpire Jeff Kellogg will be behind the plate for the matchup. In Baltimore's last seven games with Kellogg calling balls and strikes, the Over is a sizzling 7-0.

Baltimore sends Bud Norris to the mound, while David Price counters for Detroit.

The Tigers are currently -175 faves on the moneyline with a total of 7.5 for the contest.

**Udog** · 10-05-2014, 12:34 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 5

American League Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 3 - Balt. leads 2-0

Baltimore at Detroit, 3:35 ET
Gonzalez: 20-8 SU after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span
Price: DETROIT 22-10 OVER in home games against AL East opponents
American Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 3 - KC leads 2-0

LA Angels at Kansas City, 7:35 ET
Wilson: 4-12 TSR against the money line in road game
Shields: KANSAS CITY 23-8 SU after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8

TSR = Team Start Record

Announcement

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 10/5 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 10/5 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

Comment

Comment

Comment