Announcement

**Udog** · 10-02-2014, 08:59 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 5 upon us........

-- Packers failed to cover last four games as a home favorite.

-- Tennessee covered twice in its last twelve games.

-- Arizona is 8-3 in its last 11 games as a road underdog.

-- Falcons are 8-4 in last 12 games as a non-divisional road dog.

-- Buccaneers covered once in last seven divisional games.

-- Rams covered six of last seven games coming off a bye.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) For the record, I think one-game Wild Card thing in baseball is a great idea; there has to be an advantage for winning the division, and this provides it. The Wild Card itself helps keep September a relevant month, so all in all, they’ve improved the game this way.

12) That said, MLB needs to be careful about making rule changes to speed up the game; media whiners have too loud a voice in all this. I love watching baseball, don’t want to see the game screwed up just to chop 8-10 minutes off the average game.

Limiting visits to the mound would be an excellent step; having less TV commercials would be even better, but that has no chance of happening. The pitchless intentional walk won’t shorten a game by very much.

The playoff game on Tuesday night was an exciting, thrilling contest with great meaning; I doubt anyone complained that it took a long time to play.

11) Jon Gruden will have his pick of coaching jobs if/when he decides to get back in; if you were him, would the Raiders’ job be the one you chose? Me either.

10) NBA guard Nate Robinson is opening a chicken ‘n waffles restaurant in Seattle; I’ve never had chicken and waffles at the same time, but since I like both of them, they would be good together, right? Would have to keep the maple syrup away from the chicken, though.

9) Clippers-Nuggets have an exhibition game at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas in a couple weeks; I've been to one of those preseason games in Vegas and the crowd is almost as fun to watch as the game, especially with the Clippers having some high profile stars on their team.

8) The more you read about the NBA, the more you realize Doc Rivers is a players’ coach, sometimes cancelling practice during the season because he thinks players would be better off with fresher legs than more practice.

Now he’s having training camp in Las Vegas; couldn’t see Hubie Brown or Gregg Popovich having his training camp in Las Vegas.

7) No major league ballclub won or lost 100+ games this season, only the 4th time that’s happened in the last fifty years.

6) Apparently Lebron James and Mike Miller are good buddies and Lebron wasn’t happy when the Heat cut Miller last year, even though they saved $17M in luxury taxes by doing so. Lebron bolted Miami for Cleveland and lo and behold, Miller is a Cavalier now. Go figure.

5) Bill Belichick will get in the Hall of Fame as a coach, but you look at these Patriots and you realize he’s a cruddy general manager. In football, with so many injuries, the personnel guy is vital to a team’s success. Just like Jerry Jones in Dallas, personnel is not Belichick’s strong suit.

4) 1st and Loud, the reality show about the arena football team in Los Angeles, has become painful to watch, with the LA Kiss on their way to an incredibly bad season, filled with dissension and stupid decisions and two co-owners who know nothing about football and a third who is a genuine nitwit.

The 4th co-owner looks like John Elway and appears to have a clue, but he also seems to have less influence than the main partner, who is a micromanaging jackass. Quick example so you know I’m not making this up: he ordered the coach to onside kick after every score in one game. Spoiler alert: it didn’t go well.

3) Downloaded the Blue Ribbon Yearbook on my IPad this week, so I’ve started preparation for college hoop season. For $17, it’s a great bargain. The actual paper copy of Blue Ribbon will be here in a few weeks.

2) Wednesday would’ve been a good day to put on the shades, cover myself in towels and vegetate by the pool, any pool in Las Vegas. Just disappear from the world for the day, shut my mind off, have a cold drink and chill. We all need days like that now and then; at least I’ve got a trip to Vegas scheduled for next month, but pools will be closed by then.

1) Elias Sports Bureau points out that NFL games in Week 4 were decided by an average of 17.6 points, third highest average of any week in the last 25 years. For all the off-court drama the NFL is going thru, they better keep an eye on their actual product, which has slipped some with teams not allowed to practice as much as in the past.

**Udog** · 10-02-2014, 09:00 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Detroit at Baltimore
The Tigers open up their ALDS series in Baltimore today and come into the contest with a 4-0 record in Max Scherzer's last 4 starts as a road favorite. Detroit is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 901-902: Detroit at Baltimore (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.322; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.706
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over

Game 903-904: Kansas City at LA Angels (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 14.212; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.778
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (90 - 72) at BALTIMORE (96 - 66) - 5:35 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. CHRIS TILLMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 188-147 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 181-141 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 97-66 (+36.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 50-31 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BALTIMORE is 26-12 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 86-59 (+30.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 72-36 (+41.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 75-47 (+32.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 53-42 (+13.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 45-27 (+24.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 31-15 (+19.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TILLMAN is 25-10 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 38-21 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 23-9 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 19-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 10-4 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 25-16 (+17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 36-21 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
DETROIT is 35-23 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 29-19 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
SCHERZER is 24-9 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 15-0 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 23-8 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 33-11 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 29-9 (+16.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-1 (+3.6 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SCHERZER is 3-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.359.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-4. (-2.5 units)

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. DETROIT since 1997
TILLMAN is 3-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.221.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (90 - 73) at LA ANGELS (98 - 64) - 9:05 PM
JASON VARGAS (L) vs. JERED WEAVER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 3-3 (+0.0 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

JASON VARGAS vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
VARGAS is 5-4 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.144.
His team's record is 7-7 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-9. (-4.5 units)

JERED WEAVER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
WEAVER is 7-4 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.21 and a WHIP of 1.112.
His team's record is 8-4 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-9. (-6.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 2

Tigers-Orioles
Scherzer is 3-0, 2.70 in his last four starts; he allowed two runs in four IP vs Baltimore this year. Scherzer is 4-2, 3.42 in nine postseason starts.

Tillman is making his first postseason start; he is 5-1, 2.52 in his last 10 starts. Tillman won his only start vs Detroit this year, allowing one run in 8.1 IP.

Tigers are 10-6 in last 16 road games; they're in playoffs for 4th year in row; they won this round last three years, won World Series in 2012.

Orioles are 20-6 in their last 26 home games; they lost in this round in 2012, their only playoff appearamce since '97.

Scherzer 24-9.....8-33 first inning
Tillman 24-10 (11-1 last 12).........12-34 first inning

Royals-Angels
Vargas is 0-4, 9.00 in his last four starts; he allowed seven runs in 10.1 IP in two starts (0-0) against the Angels this season. This is his first postseason appearance.

Weaver is 4-2, 3.00 in his last six starts; he didn't pitch against the Royals this year, is 2-1, 2.61 in six postseason games (3 starts).

Royals won seven of last nine games, six of last eight on road; this is their first playoff since 1985. Just know that Yost is a sub-par game manager.

Angels jogged to AL West title, lost seven of last ten games; they're in playoffs for first time since 2009- they made playoffs six out of eight years ('02-'09), winning 2002 World Series.

Vargas 14-16.........6-30 first inning (4 of last 7)
Weaver 22-12........6-34 first inning
Two starting pitchers were college teammates at Long Beach State.

MLB

Thursday, October 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5:37 PM
DETROIT vs. BALTIMORE
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

9:07 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
LA Angels are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
LA Angels are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing Kansas City

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB

Thursday, October 2

Tillman undefeated as home dog this year

The Baltimore Orioles send Chris Tillman to the mound for Game 1 of the ALDS Thursday. The O's are currently +104 home dogs, which favors the rightie who has gone a perfect 4-0 as the dog at Camden Yards.

Tillman has only allowed five runs during those five games and has only surrendered an average of five hits per game.

Higher stike rates could be cause for lower scoring

Another season of Major League Baseball is in the books and we have yet another season where scoring is in decline. The cause of this? It could be umpiring.

Teams scored just 4.07 runs per game compared to 4.17 last year and 5.14 in 2000. The under was the more dominant result for totals coming in at 51.3 percent. And even the top over umpires' strike rates has increased from 62.7 percent in 2007 to 63.9 percent in 2014.

According to a paper by Brian Mills, an assistant professor at the University of Florida, umpires have expanded their strike zone as a result of new technologies the MLB uses to track an umpire's accuracy.

**Udog** · 10-02-2014, 12:27 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 2

Detroit at Baltimore, 5:35 ET
Scherzer: 29-9 TSR after a win
Tillman: BALTIMORE 18-48 after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits

Kansas City at LA Angels, 9:05 ET
Peavy: KANSAS CITY 14-23 after 2 straight games where they committed no errors
Weaver: 88-36 TSR as a home favorite

TSR = Team Start Record

**Udog** · 10-02-2014, 09:03 PM

CFL
Dunkel

Calgary at Saskatchewan
The Roughriders (9-4 SU) host Calgary (11-2 SU) on Friday night and come into the contest with 7-2-2 ATS record in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning SU record. Saskatchewan is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3

Game 491-492: Winnipeg at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 112.802; Ottawa 107.331
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 3 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-3 1/2); Over

Game 493-494: Calgary at Saskatchewan (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 115.973; Saskatchewan 118.606
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Calgary by 4 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4 1/2); Over

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4

Game 495-496: Edmonton at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 115.542; Toronto 121.063
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3 1/2); Under

Game 497-498: BC at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 115.482; Hamilton 112.477
Dunkel Line: BC by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+3); Over

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Friday, October 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (6 - 7) at OTTAWA (1 - 11) - 10/3/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 1-0 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALGARY (11 - 2) at SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 4) - 10/3/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 115-76 ATS (+31.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
CALGARY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1996.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDMONTON (9 - 4) at TORONTO (4 - 8) - 10/4/2014, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 4-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 6) at HAMILTON (5 - 7) - 10/4/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFL

Week 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, October 3

7:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. OTTAWA
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games at home

10:00 PM
CALGARY vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Calgary is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Saskatchewan
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
Saskatchewan is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Calgary

Saturday, October 4

4:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. TORONTO
Edmonton is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. HAMILTON
British Columbia is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of British Columbia's last 11 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFL

Week 15

Offense kept to a minimum for traveling Stampeders

The Calgary Stampeders have been money for totals bettors over the past two seasons. In Calgary's past 12 road games, the team has a 1-11 over/under record.

Those 12 road games have seen the Stamps average 27 points while keeping opponents to 19 points per game.

The total is currently set for 47.

Redblacks giving home fans no excitement

It may be their inaugural season, but the Ottawa Redblacks are not doing anything on the field to attract fans. In their six home games this season, the Redblacks have averaged 9.8 points per game.

This has led to an over/under record of 1-5 with the past four games going under at the TD Place Stadium.

Announcement

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/2 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 10/2 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment