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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 2 - Saturday, October 4)

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  • #16
    Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

    College football action is picking up with Saturday just around the corner. We talk to Jay Rood, Director of Race and Sports at MGM properties in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the Week 6 board and where those odds could end up come kickoff:

    Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

    This SEC showdown opened with oddsmakers on the fence, but wiseguys hit Mississippi State hard early in the week and pushed this spread as many as 2.5 points. Rood, however, doesn’t expect a move to the key number of three before the noon ET kickoff.

    “The ticket count is fairly even, with a little lean to Texas A&M. But the sharps are all on Mississippi State,” Rood tells Covers. “Hard to say what the public will do now. Depending on where this spread moves, we could have sharps coming in late and laying the favorite.”

    SMU Mustangs at East Carolina Pirates – Open: -34.5, Move: -41.5

    The cat is out of the bag on East Carolina, which seems to be the mightiest of the mid-major programs. Sharps were all over the Pirates in the opening weeks of the season but now the public has caught on and has moved this spread as much as a touchdown at online books.

    “Sharp action laid the big number and the public continues to bet East Carolina,” says Rood. “Everyone is keenly aware of ECU now, they’re not an undercover story now. So we will be needing the Ponies in a big way Saturday, probably need them for two scores. And the way they’ve played recently, they could be hard pressed to do that.”

    Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats – Open: +10, Move: +7

    Some markets have moved the spread for this Big Ten battle as much as a field goal, while MGM properties opened Wisconsin -9 and are now dealing -8. All the money is on Northwestern, which is a change of pace for the Badgers’ recent games, in which Wisconsin was the overwhelming choice for bettors.

    “They’re definitely all over Northwestern,” Rood says of the wiseguys. “This game is dropping as we speak. The home dog is getting all the action, from the sharp perspective. However, it’s all Wisconsin on parlays and teasers.”

    Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -24, Move: -28

    The firing of Kansas coach Charlie Weis has sparked money against the Jayhawks in Week 6. It’s a tough call whether or not KU will be better or worse without Weis – it can’t get much worse, can it?

    “It’s literally all West Virginia money from everywhere – sharps and squares,” says Rood, “Everyone is calling for a lopsided affair. I sometimes look at these situations and expect some extra motivation (from the team that fired its coach). But I just don’t know in this case?”

    LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers – Open: -9, Move: -7.5

    This SEC matchup is the big game on the Week 5 schedule, and it looks like Auburn is the popular play even though the line has moved as much as 1.5 points toward LSU, pointing the finger to sharp money. According to Rood, there haven’t been a lot of tickets written on this game yet, but the ones that have come in are substantial.

    “We have some decent-sized tickets on this. It’s going to be a pretty high dollar amount game. We’ll write some business on this one,” he says. “Sharps could bring this one down and the public could keep playing it. We could get some decent two-way action on this but if sharps keep chopping it down, we could find ourselves in a spot where we get sided on eight.”

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    • #17
      NCAAF

      Saturday, October 4


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Game of the Day: LSU at Auburn
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers (-7.5, 58.5)

      Fifth-ranked Auburn puts its 12-game home winning streak on the line when it hosts No. 15 LSU for a Southeastern Conference West Division showdown Saturday night. It's the beginning of a brutal stretch for Auburn as it tries to defend its SEC crown and claim a spot in the inaugural four-team playoff. LSU has won three straight meetings and six of the last seven, including a 35-21 home win last season, but the home team has won 12 of the last 14 contests in the series.

      After surviving a scare at Kansas State on Sept. 18, Auburn cruised to a 45-17 win over Louisiana Tech last week. LSU couldn't complete a furious comeback in a 34-29 loss to Mississippi State in its SEC opener two weeks ago but was sharp in a 63-7 tuneup versus New Mexico State last Saturday. A victory would be coach Les Miles' 100th at LSU, while Auburn seeks its 300th all-time victory in SEC play.

      TV:
      7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Auburn -7.5

      LINE REPORT:
      The line opened at Auburn -8.5, but bettors have pushed it down to -7.5. The total has been shifting upwards after opening at 56.5, it now sits at 58.5.

      INJURY REPORT:
      LSU - FB Connor Neihgbors (Prob-Concussion), DT Quentin Thomas (Ques-Arm) Auburn - LB LaDarius Owens (Prob-Undisclosed), OL Patrick Miller (Ques-Undisclosed)

      WEATHER REPORT:
      Clear skies are projected for the game, but thunderstorms are expected for the night before. Winds will be blowing NW 12-14 miles per hour.

      ABOUT LSU (4-1, 0-1 SEC):
      Despite the early slip-up versus Mississippi State, the Tigers' stock is rising since freshman quarterback Brandon Harris took the reins of the offense. Harris led LSU to touchdowns on all seven possessions he played against New Mexico State and has led TD drives on nine of his last 10 possessions since taking over against the Bulldogs. The Tigers dominated inferior opponents but dug early holes against Wisconsin and Mississippi State and must be much more sound defensively in the first half against Auburn.

      ABOUT AUBURN (4-0, 1-0):
      The Tigers continue to move the ball at will under coach Gus Malzahn, particularly on the ground. Tailback Cameron Artis-Payne (117 yards per game, 5 TDs) and quarterback Nick Marshall (68.2 yards per game, 2 TDs) are dangerous runners, and Marshall has done enough damage as a passer to keep defenses honest, averaging 137 yards through the air with six TDs and one interception. Defensively, the Tigers have given up large chunks of yardage through the air but have gotten nine takeaways to limit the damage.

      TRENDS:


      *Auburn is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
      *LSU is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
      *Over is 8-1 in Auburn's last 9 home games.
      *Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Auburn.

      CONSENSUS:
      53.47 percent of users are backing LSU +7.5, with 55.3 percent taking the over.


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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      • #18
        NCAAF

        Saturday, October 4



        Four programs perfect at the betting window

        With Week 6 of the college football schedule upon us, four unblemished against the spread records remain as Georgia Southern (5-0 ATS), Virginia (5-0), East Carolina (4-0) and TCU (3-0) all head into Saturday's action with perfect ATS records.

        Three programs - Baylor, Memphis and Ole Miss - have not posted an ATS loss, but each have one push.

        All four of those aforementioned schools are in action today as Georgia Southern (+19) visits New Mexico State, Virginia (-5) hosts Pitt, East Carolina (-41) hosts SMU and TCU (+3.5) hosts Oklahoma.


        Windy conditions in Big Ten matchup

        Wind could play a factor in Saturday's meeting at Memorial Stadium as Illinois hosts Purdue in the Big Ten.

        Forecasts are calling for wind to blow across the field at around 17 mph in Champaign and there is a slight possibility of rain at 16 percent.

        Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.

        Oddsmakers have Illinois as an 8.5-point home fave a total of 54.5.


        Florida on hot SU streak versus Tennessee

        The Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers renew acquaintances at Neyland Stadium Saturday, and it's the Gators that have had the edge of late winning nine-straight rivalry games straight up.

        Over that stretch, the Gators have posted a record of 5-3-1 against the spread at the betting window.

        Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 1-point road faves for Saturday's meeting, but action has pushed Tennessee to -2.5 at most shops, with a couple of Tennessee -3's available.

        As for the moneyline, the Gators can be had for anywhere from +115 to +125.


        Thunderstorms in store for Ball State-Army game

        According to weather forecasts, there is a 95 percent possibility of thunderstorms for Saturday's game between the Ball State Cardinals and Army Black Knights Saturday.

        Temperatures will be in the low-60s and wind will blow across Michie Stadium at around 5 mph.

        The Black Knights are currently 1.5-point home favorites and the total is 58.5.


        Gamecocks WR Roland misses flight to Kentucky

        According to several media outlets, South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Shaq Roland did not make the journey to Kentucky for Saturday's game between the Gamecocks and Wildcats.

        The school has not stated why, exactly, the junior did not travel.

        Roland has 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns on the season.


        Baylor D getting overlooked due to potent offense

        The Baylor Bears' high-flying offense is getting a lot of attention this year, but their defense has been no slouch, either.

        In week 5 against Iowa State, the Bears limited the Cyclones' runningbacks to just 28 yards on 20 carries. They boast the fifth best rushing defense in the nation, and are ranked sixth overall in total defense.

        Baylor visits Texas for a date with the Longhorns Saturday. The Bears are presently -14.5 road faves with an O/U of 58.5 for the inter-state clash.


        Wake Forest has ugly history against Top 25 teams

        If you're looking to back the underdog in a David vs. Goliath matchup in Week 6 college football action, trends are showing you may want to stay away from Wake Forest against No. 2 ranked Florida State.

        The Demon Deacons' all-time record against Top 25 teams is an ugly 22-125-1. The last time they pulled off the upset, however, was in 2011 against the Seminoles.

        The 'Noles are currently 38-point home faves with a total of 55.5 for the contest.


        Oklahoma's defense keeping TCU in check

        Oklahoma will be traveling to Fort Worth, Texas with an impressive streak against TCU. The Sooners and Horned Frogs have met 13 times in their schools histories, in those meetings TCU has never scored more than 20 points in a contest.

        The Sooners defense has held opponents to an average of 16.5 points while TCU has scored 44.6 points per game.

        The total for the game currently sits at 57.5.

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        • #19
          NCAAF

          Saturday, October 4



          Wind could play a factor in Ohio State-Maryland

          The Maryland Terrapins host the Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday and wind could aid teams moving the ball toward the east endzone. According to forecasts, wind will blow toward that end of the field at 13 mph.

          The rest of the forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies with a small, 11 percent possibility of rain.


          Buckeyes dominant in conference play

          The Ohio State Buckeyes take a 16-game winning streak (straight up) in Big Ten regular season play into Saturday's game at the Maryland Terrapins.

          The Buckeyes are 9-6-1 against the spread at the betting window over those 16 regular season conference games.

          They open their Big Ten season as 7-point favorites at Maryland Saturday.


          Texas A&M not slowing up late in games

          Texas A&M has outscored opponents by an outstanding 59 points in the fourth quarter this season. The Aggies and LSU are tied for the largest fourth quarter margin in the FBS this season, a full 11 points better than the next team.

          Mississippi State is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 100th in the FBS with a -16 fourth quarter margin.


          Still looking for first ATS win, FSU a huge fave

          The Florida State Seminoles have been prime fade material this season as they head into their Week 6 matchup with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0-4 against the spread.

          The Westgate LV Superbook opened Florida State as 39-point home faves, but that has moved to -38.

          Faithful Florida State backers can probably find some solace in the previous two results between the schools. The Seminoles have won those two meetings with a combined scoreline of 111-3, covering as 28-point faves in 2012 and 34-point faves in 2013.


          Wake Forest great at keeping games close

          The Demon Deacons No.30 ranked defense has kept them in games this season. Wake Forest's three losses this season have come by an average of 9.3 points.

          The Deacs' are 38-point road dogs against Florida State Saturday.


          ECU Pirates biggest fave on Saturday's board

          Oddsmakers have adjusted the line for Week 6's matchup between SMU and East Carolina and the Pirates are now 41-point home faves at offshore books. The Pirates opened as 37-point favorites, but that line began moving instantly.

          Books in Las Vegas are currently offering the Pirates as 42-point faves.

          The Pirates have been perfect at the betting window this season, going 4-0 against the spread through their first four games - three of which came as underdogs.

          The Mustangs, on the other hand, have mustered 12 points in four games this season and have lost all four games by an average of 47.5 points.


          Foreign territory for Longhorns backers

          The Texas Longhorns are currently 14.5-point home underdogs with the Baylor Bears in town, and according to ESPN, it's a pretty historical number that oddsmakers have put on their boards.

          The Longhorns haven't been a double-digit underdog at home at any point over the past 25 years.

          The line has come down a little since post, as the Westgate LV Superbook opened the Longhorns as 15.5-point dogs.


          Home teams dominating 'Battle for the Cannon'

          Purdue will travel to Champaign to take on Illinois in another installment of the 'Battle for the Cannon.' In the past four meetings in the rivalry, the home team is 4-0 against the spread.

          The Boilermakers are 8.5-point road dogs against the Illini Saturday.


          Dogs cashing in between Eastern Michigan-Akron

          Eastern Michigan and Akron will renew hostilities when they face one another Saturday. Underdogs have been dominating the series as of late with the favorite carrying a 1-7 record against the spread in the last eight meetings.

          The Eagles are currently 25.5-point dogs.

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          • #20
            NCAAF

            Saturday, October 4



            UMass terrible defense has led to string of overs

            The UMass Minutemen are winless this season and you can thank their porous defense. The inability to slow offenses has led to four-straight overs at the window though.

            UMass is giving up an average of 40 points per game (121 in FBS), while allowing 485 yards per game.

            The Minutemen battle Miami (Ohio) with the total set at 58.5


            Under a hot bet in TCU-Oklahoma meetings

            The Under has gone 4-0 in the last four meetings between Texas Christian and Oklahoma. The pair of Big 12 programs will meet at Amon G. Carter Stadium Saturday afternoon.

            Oddsmakers opened the game with a total of 56.5 - the same number most are dealing, though there are some 57's and 57.5's out there.

            The previous four meetings had totals of 55.5, 53.5, 54.5 and 47 last season. The teams combine for 37.5 points per game over the recent stretch.


            Road team rules in Alabama-Ole Miss meetings

            The road team has posted solid results for bettors in recent meetings between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ole Miss Rebels, going 5-1 against the spread in the previous six meetings.

            It's the Tide's turn on the road this season at Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium and they are currently 4.5-point faves.

            Straight up, 'Bama has won the previous 10 meetings between the schools, with Ole Miss' last victory coming in 2003.

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            • #21
              NCAAF

              Saturday, October 4



              Weather could be a factor at Ryan Field Saturday

              According to weather forecasts, the elements are looking like they could play a factor in Saturday's Big Ten battle between the Wisconsin Badgers and Northwester Wildcats at Ryan Field Saturday.

              Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 79 percent chance of rain. Furthermore, wind is slated to blow from sideline to sideline at around 23 mph.

              Oddsmakers have the Wildcats as 7.5-point home dogs and have a total of 47 for the affair.

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