NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, September 25 - Saturday, September 27)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Friday's game
Middle Tennessee has a lousy defense; they're 1-2 vs I-A teams-- they allowed 718 yards in 50-47 OT win over Western Kentucky, 260+ yards on ground in each of two losses, 35-24 at Minnesota, 36-17 at Memphis. Old Dominion passed for 430 yards in 45-42 win at Rice last week, their first I-A road win; Monarchs lost 46-34 at NC State, have senior QB with 25 starts. MTSU has three new starters on OL and soph QB, so they're rebuilding some; they're 1-5 in last six games as a road dog.

Fresno State lost first three I-A games this year, allowing 55.3 ppg; they beat a I-AA team last week. Bulldogs (-33) gained 822 yards in a 69-28 drubbing of New Mexico LY, year after they beat Lobos 49-32 (-15) here. Bulldogs threw ball for 954 yards in the two games; they're 10-4-1 in last 15 games as a favorite on road, 5-2-1 under DeRuyter. Lobos are 1-2, allowing 753 rushing yards in two losses, before 38-35 rivalry win last week over New Mexico State- they're giving up 41.3 ppg.

[Udog]

Essential Week 5 college football betting tidbits

There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 5 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:

(1) Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack

- More distractions this week for the Seminoles, courtesy of quarterback Jameis Winston. The QB's attorney has claimed that the woman who accused the Heisman winner of rape demanded $7 million to settle her claim.

- The Wolfpack lead the ACC in total offense and they're led by a formidable three-headed monster out of the backfield. Three backs split the bulk of carries and are averaging at least 6.0 ypc (Shadrach Thornton 6.7, Matt Dayes 7.6, Tony Creecy 6.5).


Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at (5) Auburn Tigers

- The Bulldogs will be relying heavily on QB Cody Sokol if they want to top Auburn. Through three games, the senior QB has 1,009 yards passing and 10 touchdowns.

- Though Auburn has what should be a win this week, coach Gus Malzahn is concerned about the future. "Louisiana Tech is on our mind, nobody else. But we understand we have an unbelievable challenging schedule. We've got to deal with it." Seven of Auburn's remaining nine games are against teams currently in the Top 25.


(6) Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones

- Baylor goes into its Big 12 opener ranked first in the nation in points (59.3) and total offense (654 yards per game). The Bears are 2-1 O/U.

- Jarvis West has been a Swiss army knife for the Cyclones leading the team in receptions, second in receiving yards and leads the nation in punt return yardage.


Arkansas Razorbacks vs (7) Texas A&M

- "[Arkansas is] going to make you defend the run and try to go over the top and get behind you with the deep balls and keep the chains moving with the intermediate passing game,” Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mark Snyder said. “It's no secret what we're going to see Saturday.”

- Texas A&M's defense is certainly staying out of the spotlight with Kenny Hill getting the headlines, but they have been a huge part of the Aggies' success. Texas A&M's defense has a 15.8 percent sack rate on passing downs, which is good for 10th in the nation.


(8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Syracuse Orange

- Five Fighting Irish players who were suspended due to an academic conduct investigation will soon have their hearing. All the players will miss the Syracuse game, but some could see the field soon for Notre Dame.

- Ashton Broyld will not be suited up for the Orange Saturday. Syracuse's leading receiver has 11 receptions and 125 yards receiving.


Wyoming Cowboys at (9) Michigan State Spartans

- Wyoming has won five-consecutive games when traveling east of the Mississippi, and has won six of its last eight games played east of the Mississippi, with the only two losses coming in double overtime at Syracuse and in single overtime at Virginia. Over the past 15 seasons, Wyoming has traveled east 12 times and has posted a 6-6 (.500) record in those 12 road games.

- The Spartans are one of two FBS teams (Alabama) to rank in the Top 10 in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense for the last three years.


Memphis Tigers at (11) Ole Miss Rebels

- Much has been made of the Tigers defense this year and the Ole Miss coaching staff has noticed. "I can count on my 10 fingers how many missed tackles I’ve seen [Memphis make]," Hugh Freeze said this week.

- Ole Miss is looking like a legitimate threat and that has a lot to do with QB Bo Wallace. The Senior is completing an astonishing 75.5 percent of his passes (tops in the nation) and a rating of 190.0 through three games.


Tennessee Volunteers at (13) Georgia Bulldogs

- The Vols could have a long day Saturday as stopping the run has not been their specialty this season. Tennessee has allowed an average of 129 yards rushing per games, with only Oklahoma being the only top competition they've played.

- Georgia will have last years game against the Vols on its mind Saturday. Though the Bulldogs edged out Tennessee by a field goal, several key injuries in that game caused the team to go 4-4 the rest of the season.


(14) Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies

- No team in the nation has been quite as good on the defensive side of the ball as Stanford. The Cardinals rank first in the nation in scoring defense, total defense and have not allowed a team to score 30 or more points in 26 straight games.

- Despite WR John Ross getting hurt last week, he is expected to dress and play this week. Ross has just six receptions through three games, but three of those have been touchdowns and he has averaged 33.7 yards per catch.


Missouri Tigers at (15) South Carolina Gamecocks

- Even though the Mizzou offensive line has been constantly changing, QB Maty Mauk seems fine. "I'm comfortable with any of those top eight, nine, or 10 guys. They're here for a reason, so they've got to put that extra work in this week, study some film, and know what their job is. They'll come out ready to go."

- Steve Spurrier has never been one to mince words and this week is no different. ''We do believe our players can play better on defense and on special teams and even offensively,'' Spurrier said.


South Florida Bulls at (17) Wisconsin Badgers

- If USF is hoping to pull off the upset, it will need better play from QB Mike White. The sophomore has completed an abysmal 39.3 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season.

- QB Tanner McEvoy has only completed one pass of 20 or more yards to a WR this season and it's concerning coach Gary Anderson. "When you want to be who we are and run the ball, which has not changed, your inability to throw it down there a few times a game and take the top off the coverage, if you don't have that, it definitely is going to cause your offense to not be as effective as it could be," Andersen said.


New Mexico State Aggies at (18) LSU Tigers

- The Aggies owe a lot of their success this season to their stellar offensive line. The team has yet to allow a sack this season and have led the way for an average of 167 yards per game.

- There may be a QB controversy brewing for the Tigers. “I think Anthony Jennings will take the first snap,” LSU coach Les Miles told the media Wednesday. “Right now it looks pretty forthcoming, but, again, it could change.”


Illinois Fighting Illini at (19) Nebraska Cornhuskers

- Josh Ferguson blew up for Illinois last week with 190 yards rushing on 14 attempts and two touchdowns. And the junior back rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown against the Cornhuskers last season.

- The Cornhuskers will be without LB David Santos when they face the Illini. The injury means Nebraska will need to change its scheme defensively on nickel packages as Illinois has thrown the ball 158 times this season.


Cincinnati Bearcats at (20) Ohio State Buckeyes

- The Bearcats take the field with heavy hearts Saturday after freshmen redshirt RB Chamoda Kennedy-Palmore, a member of the UC scout team, was killed in a motorcycle accident Thursday night. There is a moment of silence planned for Saturday's game in Columbus.

-Yet another Buckeye freshman has been lost for the season. WR Johnnie Dixon will undergo season-ending surgery on both knees.


Oregon State Beavers at (22) USC Trojans

- Though the Beavers are entering Saturday undefeated, their opposition has not been stellar. Oregon State's opponents have a combined 3-8 record while allowing an average of 31 points per game.

- USC RB Buck Allen has taken the blame for the Trojans' loss to Boston College before their bye. "I feel like you can put it on me. I messed up or whatever, I'll take the blame. Live to see another day," Allen rushed for a mere 31 yards against the Eagles.


(23) Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes

- The Blue Devils will be without one of their starting defensive linemen for the second week in a row. Dezmond Johnson has been dealing with an unspecified leg injury and was officially ruled out against the Hurricanes this week.

- Despite fans pushing for the U to axe Mark D'Onofrio, the players are standing by their guy this week. “He probably is the best football mind. His football IQ is unbelievable, and he puts us in the right position to make plays. People just have to make them," DE Anthony Chickillo said.


Texas El Paso Miners at (25) Kansas State Wildcats

- Through three games the Miners have proven to be one of the more disciplined teams in the nation. Texas El Paso has only turned the ball over once and has only committed 12 penalties.

- Kansas State could have been one of the top ranked teams in the nation if they just converted in the red zone against Auburn last week. "We make those plays all the time," QB Jake Waters said. "Maybe sometimes it is my fault making passes down there when coach called a run, but I am still learning, and we all are still learning and getting better every single day."

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Saturday's games
Top games of week
Michigan lost at home to Utah last week; attendance os down, Hoke is on the hot seat. Wolverines won/covered last six games with Minnesota, with last five series wins by 22+ points, but they're -10 in turnovers this year, scoring 0-10 points in two losses. Gophers ran ball for 284-380 in wins over I-A cupcakes, lost only road game 30-7 at TCU, running for 99- they completed less than half their passes in last three games.

Iowa won six of last eight games with Purdue; favorites covered four of last six in series, six of last seven at Ross-Ade Stadium. Hawkeyes won 38-14/31-21 in last two visits here; all three of their I-A games this year were decided by 4 or less points (dogs 3-0 vs spread). Boilers allowed 30+ points in all three I-A games, losing 38-17 to Central Michigan, who later lost to Kansas. Purdue is 2-6 in last eight games as a home dog.

Penn State won six in row, 10 of last 12 vs Northwestern, covering last five in series; Wildcats are 13-6 in last 19 games as road dog, but lost last three visits here, by 11-14-26 points. Lions covered last four series tilts when favored by 10+ points. NW lost by 7-8 points in only I-A games this year. Penn State is 10-4 as home favorite in post-Paterno era, with home wins this year by 18-41 points- they've allowed total of 20 points in their last three games.

Since 2004, Colorado is 12-29 as road dogs, 2-3 under MacIntyre, who is good coach but it takes time to build program. Home team covered last three Colorado-Cal games- Buffs lost 52-7 in last visit here, in '10. Cal somehow blew 45-30 lead with 4:00 left at Arizona last week, giving up 36 4th quarter points. Bears won opener at Northwestern, had 3-0 start in their grasp last week, but lost; they're 0-4 in last four games as home favorites- they're 5-14 vs spread in last 19 Pac-12 games.

Vanderbilt ran two kicks back for TDs vs South Carolina last week, so Spurrier is coaching special teams this week. Gamecocks won last two games with Missouri 31-10/27-24; they're 13-10 as home favorite, 0-2 this year- dogs covered all four of their '14 games. Missouri lost 31-27 at home to Indiana last week, giving up 241 rushing yards. Tigers covered seven of last nine as a road dog, 10 of last 13 when coming off a loss.

Western Kentucky held Navy to 86 rushing yards in 19-7 loss LY, first win in three series games for WKU, which lost both road games in 2014, despite scoring 34-47 points. Hilltoppers gave up 323 rushing yards in OT loss at Middle Tennessee; they're 7-3 in last 10 games as a road dog, but 0-2 this year. Navy lost home opener to Rutgers last week, rivalry game with Air Force is next week; they're 13-23 as home fave since '04.

Notre Dame won first three games by 16+ points; they've got a revenge game with Stanford next week. Irish are 5-5 vs spread on neutral fields in Kelly era. Syracuse lost by two TDs at home to Maryland last week, despite outgaining Terps 589-369- they needed OT to beat Villanova, a I-AA team- they've covered last five games on a neutral field, are 3-4 as underdog under Shafer. ACC teams covered six of eight as an underdog out of conference.

Texas A&M beat Arkansas 58-10/45-33 last two years, after losing three in row to Hogs before that; Aggies scored 49.3 ppg in its three I-A wins, one of which was at South Carolina. Arkansas scored 101 points in wins last two weeks, running ball for 438-212 yards; they are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog, 2-4 under Bielema. Over last decade, A&M is 2-10 vs spread on neutral fields, 1-2 under Sumlin- they're 7-10 as a favorite in Sumlin era.

Oregon State lost seven visits to USC (3-4 vs spread); underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in last seven series games- Beavers upset USC couple times in Corvallis. Trojans are 16-9 vs spread in game following last 25 losses; they gave up 452 rushing yards in last game, loss at BC. Oregon State has senior QB with 34 starts; they've covered last seven games as a road underdog. USC covered 11 of last 17 games as a home favorite- they're starting three sophomores on offensive line.

Stanford won five of last six games vs Washington, with last two decided by total of 7 points; Cardinal won three of last four visits here, losing in last visit here, 17-13. Huskies held Stanford under 280 total yards in last two meetings. Cardinal is 14-5 in last 19 games as road favorite, 10-4 in Shaw era; they're visiting Notre Dame, better not overlook Pac-12 rival that is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as home dog. Wary of Washington defense that gave up 52 points to I-AA Wastern Washington.

17-point spread is the biggest in Georgia-Tennessee rivalry in at least 35 years; Dawgs won last four series games, last three by 8 or less points. Vols lost last three visits between hedges by 7-27-12 points, they're 4-1 vs spread in last five visits here, 3-9 in last 12 games as road dog, 10-16 in game following a loss. Georgia is 15-11 as home favorite, scoring 111 points in pair of home wins this year- they gave up 59 points in splitting rivalry games with Clemson/South Carolina.

Duke (+3.5) beat Miami 48-30 LY, ending 8-game series skid; they're 3-0 in last three games as road underdog, 4-0 this season vs cupcakes, scoring average of 43.5 ppg. Miami is 8-9 as home favorite under Golden- they lost 41-31 at Nebraska last week, giving up 343 rushing yards. Duke lost last four visits here (2-2 vs spread) with all four losses by 10+ points. Miami is 8-5 vs spread in game following a loss, 0-3 in last three. Duke is 10-2-1 vs spread in game following last 13 wins.

Boise State beat Air Force 42-20/37-26 in last two meetings, gaining 956 total yards; Broncos are 23-9 in last 32 games as home favorite covering at UConn in only true road game this year. Boise doesn't have a senior starting on OL. Air Force has rivalry game with Navy on deck; they've failed to cover last four tries as a home dog. Falcons threw ball 47 times in last two games, lot for them- they've allowed 696 passing yards in last two games, losing 17-13 at Wyoming, winning 48-38 at Georgia State.

Notes on rest of the card
-- Michigan State is 4-10 in last 14 games as home favorite; their first league game is next week, when Nebraska visits. Mountain West teams are 3-10 as non-conference road dogs.
-- Maryland won at Syracuse last week, despite being outgained by 220 yards. Under Edsall, Terps are 9-13 vs spread in conference games.
-- Baylor beat Iowa State 71-7 in Waco LY, but lost last two visits here, both by 14 points. Cyclones are 9-10-1 as home dog under Rhoads.
-- Wisconsin opens conference play next week, could be looking ahead. South Florida covered 14 of last 20 games as a road underdog.

-- Virginia is 2-8-3 in last 13 games as a home favorite. MAC teams are 8-11 as road underdogs in non-conference games.
-- Virginia Tech got upset in each of its last two home games. Western Michigan is 9-7 in last 16 games as a road dog; they scored 34-45 in two I-A road games this season.
-- Underdogs covered last six Temple-UConn games, winning last three in series SU.
-- Akron is 7-4 as road underdogs under Bowden. Pitt got upset at home by Iowa last week, despite outgaining Hawkeyes by 124 yards.

-- Rutgers covered all three I-A games this year, all as dogs in games that were decided by 7 or less points- they're 6-11 as favorites under Flood.
-- Toledo won its last four games with Central Michigan, all by 11+, as favorites covered five of last six series games.
-- Vanderbilt won its last three games with Kentucky by combined score of 100-14; favorites covered seven of last eight series games.
-- Wake Forest has 3rd-youngest team in country; they lost both road games this season, 17-10 (+2) at ULM, 36-24 (+14) at Utah State.

-- Boston College had 452 rushing yards in upset of USC couple weeks ago. Colorado State is 4-6 as a road underdog under McElwain.
-- Favorites covered five of last six Miami-Buffalo games; Bulls crushed Miami 44-7 LY, running ball for 311 yards.
-- Texas State gave up 954 total yards, 571 on ground in losses by 14-7 points to Illinois/Navy. Sun Belt road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread.
-- UTEP has run ball for 277+ yards in all three games, with only loss at Texas Tech 30-26- they beat both New Mexico schools, rivalry games.

-- Louisiana Tech won two of three I-A road games to open season, then lost home opener to I-AA team. Auburn won its two home games by 24-46 points; they had tough win last week, play LSU next week.
-- Bowling Green won its last two games with UMass 28-7/24-0, but the Falcons allowed 56.3 ppg in their three I-A games this season.
-- SMU is toast for this year, having already fired its coach, but they are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games vs TCU, its local rival.
-- Favorites covered three of last four Rice-Southern Miss games, with average total of 69.5. Owls beat USM 44-17 last year, despite being outgained by two yards for the game.

-- North Carolina gave up 70 points at East Carolina last week; they lost last three visits to Death Valley, by 21-45-8 points. Clemson is starting a true freshman QB this week.
-- Texas has already thrown nine kids off team this year and had starting QB quit (concussions); they won last 10 games vs Kansas, going 7-3 vs spread in those games.
-- Winston is back for Florida State, which lost last two visits to Raleigh, in series where three of last five games were decided by 4 or less points.
-- South Alabama scored total of nine points in losing last two games; it allowed 623 rushing yards in those games. Idaho is 0-3 despite scoring an average of 29.3 ppg.

-- Cincinnati visits Ohio State with a heavy heart; one of their players died in a motorcycle accident this week. Teams last met in 2006.
-- UAB (-6.5) won 27-24 at FIU last year, outrushing Panthers 217-94. Blazers lost 47-34 at Miss State, gaining 548 yards- impressive.
-- Ole Miss won last five games with Memphis (3-1-1 vs spread); this is little bit of local rivalry. Memphis lost 42-35 at UCLA; in no way are they a pushover anymore.
-- FAU had 19-17 lead and ball on first down with 2:09 left last week vs Wyoming; they fumbled on first down, gave up 88-yard pass next play and lost 20-19 in shocking fashion. tough game to bounce back from.

-- UL-Monroe won its last three games with Troy by 14-28-12 points. Warhawks won their first two home games, by seven points each.
-- Home side covered last three Washington State-Utah games; Coogs got beat 49-6 in last visit here. Wazzu was outgained 501-499 in 38-31 loss to Oregon last week- they played their hearts out.
-- LSU lost at home to Miss State last week, New Mexico State lost by 3 to rival New Mexico. Tigers are trying to find a consistent QB.
-- Nebraska gained 521 yards in 39-19 win (-7.5) over Illinois LY; Illini gave up 34 points to WKU, 35 to Texas State- this could get ugly.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 27

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Game of the Day: Missouri at South Carolina
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Missouri Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-5, 62.5)

Despite putting itself in a hole on the opening night of the season, No. 15 South Carolina is now in position to put the pressure on the rest of the SEC East. The Gamecocks will be halfway through their conference slate after Saturday's visit from Missouri, and another win against a division rival would be a major advantage. The Tigers are aiming for their seventh straight road win while South Carolina has won 20 of its last 21 at home.

Neither team looked like a title contender a week ago, as the Gamecocks struggled before pulling away for a 48-34 win at Vanderbilt and the Tigers gave up a late touchdown in a 31-27 home loss to Indiana. "We're still in the hunt for whatever we're in the hunt for, but obviously we need to concern ourselves with playing the game at a lot better level than we've been playing," South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier told reporters. The Gamecocks handed the Tigers their only regular-season blemish a year ago, storming back from a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit for a 27-24 overtime victory at Missouri.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: South Carolina -5.5.

LINE HISTORY: The opening spread saw South Carolina -6, but has been steadily on the decline down to -5 on Friday. The toal has adjusted slightly after opening at 63, it now sits at 62.5.

INJURY REPORT: Mizzou - DL Markus Golden (Prob-Hamstring), RB Morgan Steward (Ques-Hip) South Carolina - TE Kevin Crosby (Ques-Foot), C Cody Waldrop (Out-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Projected temperatures are 25° and upwards of 30° with the humidity. There skies will be cloudy will sparse sun, but wind or rain should not impact play on the field.

ABOUT MISSOURI (3-1, 0-0 SEC): The Tigers have hardly missed a beat on offense with Maty Mauk under center, as the sophomore has racked up 978 yards and 14 TDs through the air and added 115 yards and a score on the ground. Defensive end Shane Ray has been a disruptive force, ranking tied for second in the nation with 2.4 tackles for loss per game and tied for third with 1.5 sacks per contest, and he will need to continue that production against a strong Gamecocks offense. The Tigers were without the other bookend, defensive end Markus Golden, against Indiana because of a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play this week.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (3-1, 2-1): As usual, Spurrier's squad boasts a potent, balanced offense that has put up 36.8 points per contest and topped 430 total yards in each game. Quarterback Dylan Thompson has thrown for 1,140 yards with 11 TDs and three interceptions and the passing game has picked up some of the slack while waiting for running back Mike Davis (264 yards, 2 TDs) to break out. The defense continues to be cause for concern, as the Gamecocks allowed a whopping 34 points to a punchless Vanderbilt offense and have surrendered 480 total yards and 36 points per game.

TRENDS:

*Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss.
*Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 8-1 in Tigers last 9 road games.
*Over is 11-4 in Gamecocks last 15 conference games.

CONSENSUS: 59.02 percent of users are taking the Gamecocks -5 with 58.9 percent taking the over.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 27


Cincinnati trying to "win back Ohio" vs. Buckeyes

When the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Ohio State Buckeyes face off Saturday, there's more than just a game on the line - it's a battle for the state, per Cleveland.com.

The Bearcats will wear a special decal on their helmets for the matchup, with the outline of the state of Ohio and a sprawled Cincinnati logo across it on the back. No Ohio-based team has beaten the dominant Buckeyes since 1921.

The Bearcats are using the special design as motivation with the intention of "winning back Ohio." Many have viewed Cincy as the team with the most realistic chance to knock off Ohio State in quite some time.

The No. 20 ranked Buckeyes are presently 17.5-point faves with a total of 62 for the game.


LSU's QB situation not getting clearer

There may be a quarterback controversy at LSU, according to TheAdvocate.com.

After winning the job in camp over freshman Brandon Harris and starting LSU's first four games, Anthony Jennings has struggled. In relief of Jennings, Harris helped lead a huge comeback against Mississippi State in Week 4 that just fell short, and his coach has taken note.

"I think Anthony Jennings will take the first snap," said LSU head coach Les Miles. "Right now it looks pretty forthcoming, but, again, it could change. Miles has said the competition will "play out" in practice.

LSU is currently -42.5 faves with a total of 56.


South Florida QB White hindering his team

In order for the South Florida Bulls to pull off the upset over No. 17 Wisconsin Saturday, they're going to need a huge improvement at the quarterback position.

Bulls signal caller Mike White has completed an abysmal 39.3 percent of his passes this season with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

The host Badgers are currently 34-point faves with an O/U of 51 for the matchup.


Outstanding defense the story for Stanford

The Stanford Cardinal have been playing lights out defense so far this season.

Stanford ranks first in the nation in scoring defense and total defense, and they have not allowed a team to score 30 or more points in 26 straight games. The Cardinal defense has only allowed 13 points through three games.

The No. 14 ranked Cardinal face off against Washington Saturday. Stanford is currently -7.5 road faves with a total of 47.5.


Louisville to start freshman QB Bonnafon

Reggie Bonnafon will start for Louisville against Wake Forest Saturday. The freshman will be replacing an injured Will Gardner who suffered a knee injury against FIU.

The QB has played sparingly this season, but has completed 70 percent of his passes with a touchdown.


FSU will be without Mario Edwards this week

Florida State's defensive line has taken a second hit within a week with the announcement that Mario Edwards will not suit up Saturday. The defensive end is dealing with a concussion.

Earlier this week, the Seminoles also lost DT Nile Lawrence-Stample for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.


Texas A&M putting up impressive numbers on D

Quarterback Kenny Hill has been grabbing all the headlines at Texas A&M this season, but their defense has been quietly putting up solid numbers.

The Aggies' D has a 15.8 percent sack rate on passing downs, good enough for tenth in the nation. Versus Auburn and Texas Tech this season, it was 42.9 percent.

The seventh ranked Aggies host Arkansas Saturday afternoon. Texas A&M is presently nine-point favorites with an O/U of 72.


Ole Miss QB posting fantastic numbers

Ole Miss is looking like a team that could go far this college football season, thanks in large part to the play of quarterback Bo Wallace.

The 22-year-old has completed an amazing 75.5 percent of his passes, good enough to rank him first overall among signal callers in the category. Wallace also has a 190.0 passer rating through three games.

No. 11 ranked Mississippi hosts Memphis Saturday. The Rebels are currently 21-point faves with a total of 59.


Trend shows Wyoming dominating east of Mississippi

Wyoming University has a track record of performing well east of the Mississippi River, per County10.com.

The Cowboys have won five-consecutive games when visiting opponents east of the river, as well as six of their last eight. Wyoming faces a team ranked in the top 10 - No. 9 Michigan State - for the second time this season, and another affair on the opposite side of the infamous river.

Michigan State is currently -27.5 home faves with a total of 48.


Trends show Georgia not covering vs. good teams

The Georgia Bulldogs have not been a particularly great spread bet when facing good teams as of late.

The Bulldogs are 1-6-1 against the spread versus teams with winning records, and they'll face off against the Tennessee Volunteers (2-1) Saturday.

Georgia is currently 17.5-point faves with a total of 57.


Wyoming sizzling on the Under

The Wyoming Cowboys have been participating in a lot of low-scoring games as of late, and as a result, bettors backing the Under in those contests are profiting in a big way.

All five of the Cowboys' last five games have gone Under the total. Wyoming travels to Michigan State for a date with the No. 9 ranked Spartans Saturday.

Michigan State is currently -28.5 faves with an Over/Under of 47.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves

With a good chunk of schedule behind us, college football bettors have a solid idea who they like and don’t like for Week 5 of the season. There are numerous sides and totals on the move, and we key in on the biggest adjustments for Saturday’s action.

John Avello, director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, gives some insight into why these odds are moving and where they’ll end up come kickoff:

Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers – Open: +13.5, Move: +8.5

This Big Ten battle has had its spread trimmed as many as five points since opening, with bettors not sold on the Hawkeyes offense - 22.2 points per game – or its chances of covering this pile of chalk against an old conference rival.

“This Iowa team doesn’t score a lot of points, that’s the main reason for the drop,” Avello tells Covers. “Iowa’s not a killer teams and when you average only a few touchdowns, this is a lot of points to lay.”

Colorado State Rams at Boston College Eagles – Open: -2.5, Move: -9

It would seem the betting market has been convinced by the Eagles following their upset win against Southern Cal. Avello opened Boston College just under a field goal and has taken nothing but action on the home side.

“I understand the move past three, but I don’t know why it’s that drastic of a move,” he says. “You can look at the USC game and say, ‘Yeah you beat USC and they’re pretty good’. But I think USC isn't as good as some think.”

Avello doesn't think the Rams travel distance for this game will have much of an impact, with Colorado State enjoying a bye week in Week 4.

Western Michigan Mustangs at Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: -27.5, Move: 21

This non-conference clash has watched more than a touchdown come off its opening line, with bettors not sold on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is coming off back-to-back losses and has a ACC road trip to North Carolina coming next.

“I can’t blame players for this move, Virginia Tech has stalled,” says Avello. “If you beat Ohio State on the road, then come back home and lose two in a row, is this Western Michigan game really one you can get up for?”

Florida International Golden Panthers at UAB Blazers – Open: -11, Move: -17.5

The FIU Golden Panthers are coming off two games against major-conference competition – Pitt and Louisville – and now find themselves getting 17.5 points on the road against a Blazers squad that defeated Troy and gave Mississippi State a run for its money.

“You want to lay 17.5 points with UAB, go right ahead,” says Avello. “This is the kind of game where I can set a line and put it out, and then not know what to do with it.”

Kent State Golden Flashes at Virginia Cavaliers – Open: 21.5, Move: 28

Depending on where you play, this game may be off the board due to the unknown status of Virginia QB Greyson Lambert, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Avello currently has this game off the board, while online markets have pumped up this spread nearly a touchdown with action on the Cavs.

“Virginia is a bit of a surprises, they’re playing well,” says Avello. “But I don’t like putting up games unless I know (the status of Lambert). But so far, they’ve look good.”

Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack – Open: +27.5, Move: +19

This game has had a huge chunk of points shaved from its opening number, with money playing against the defending national champs. Avello looks back at FSU’s recent trips to Raleigh - 0-5-1 ATS last six in NC State – and also the Seminoles’ current form as explanation for this drastic move.

“This has become a lethargic FSU team, game after game,” he says. “If they want, they can make a statement this week and get the ball rolling. This was a team that was constantly scoring in the 50s last season but don’t seem to want it. They need a big game.”

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines – Open: -7, Move: -13

Football bettors are expecting Michigan to turn the corner – it seems like every week – but the Wolverines continue to fall short of expectations. Minnesota could also be without QB Mitch Leidner, who’s been slowed by turf toe early in the year.

“People think they’re (Michigan) due for a big game, but this team is in trouble,” says Avello. “Minnesota is a program that while they’ve lost to Michigan in the past, have been getting better. They always seem to hang around and Jerry Kill does a good job of getting them ready.”

Avello expects this line to come back down if Leidner is active.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orange – Open: +14, Move: +9

Depending on where you bet, this game has moved off a key number and past another to land on Notre Dame -9 for this neutral-site game inside MetLife Stadium. Avello expects this spread to come back up once the public comes in on the popular Fighting Irish Saturday, but says it might not be all tourist action moving that line.

“Notre Dame seems like they can get the job done,” he says, “This could go back up to 11 or 11.5. And it’s not just the tourists, but the sharps. We see a lot of movement Friday nights and Saturday mornings.”

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 27


Penn State-Northwestern trending Over

The Over has been the hot bet when Penn State and Northwestern get together, evidenced by all four of their last four meetings going over the total.

They'll renew acquaintances Saturday in Pennsylvania. The Nittany Lions are currently 10.5-point favorites with a total of 48.