NFL Week 3

[roccodean]

2* Jets
Right now -1. Taking half of my wager now, and other half after guaging line move. may bump to 3*

[jcindaville]

Let's get the broom out again Rocco!!

[garth]

get 'em, Rocco!

[roccodean]

thanks guys
took my full wager...locked in -1

[roccodean]

1* Giants

As of now half places at +2.5 and half at +2

I think this closes pick or Giants short fav

[kbsooner21]

Best of luck Rocco!

[roccodean]

1* NYG/Hou under 41.5

[ravenmaniac]

Bol. You and I think alike on the G-Men

[roccodean]

NYG up to 2*

[roccodean]

1* Jags +7

[roccodean]

Analysis on plays:


2* NY Jets -1 over Chicago (Posted Tuesday) (Possible 3* upgrade)
As expected, the wise guys followed my play and now (Wed) the line is -2.5 or -3 (even). You have to get these plays in early!
Because the Bears have good individual players a great fantasy team, this line is low. Here's the thing though...this is real football. The Bears are 18th in rushing offense and 11th in passing offense. Defensively, they aren't much better at 21st vs the run and 7th vs the pass. They are -0.6 in YPP. Conversely, the Jets aren't sexy and ESPN only talks about the negatives when it applies so we are getting great line value. The Jets are 12th in rushing offense and 24th in passing offense. Defensively, they are 5th vs the run and 20th vs the pass. They are +0.6 YPP in differential. The Bears are coming off a tough fought/emotional win. There are 2 trends favoring the Jets. J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!!!

2* NY Giants over Houston (Possible 3* upgrade)
As of now (Tues) consensus line is +2.5. Highly doubt it goes to 3 (I think it closes pick or Giants small fav) but I think it is worth the wait to see. If start to see +2 I would grab it ASAP.
This line implies that Houston is 5.5 points better than the Giants, which simply is just not true. This line is what it is because all you hear is how bad the Giants are. But, both teams are bad, but the Texans are 2-0 based on luck, not because they are good. The final score is often the most misleading stat. The Texans beat Oak (who is the worst team in the league) last week but they were actually -1.2 YPP but benefited from 4 Oak turnovers. In week 1 they beat Washington, but they scored on a punt block and Washington turned it over twice inside their own 15. The Giants are -6 in TO's including 2 lost fumbles and 0 takeaways. The team that wins the TO battle covers 76% of the time and TO's usually regress to the mean. Although Eli is INT prone, fumbles are completely random. Also Eli's INT rate is 3.4%, while Fitzpatrick's is 3.5%! The Giants get their first win here!

1* NYG/HOU Under 41.5

1* Jax +7 over Indy
This line is simply based on public perception...and the perception is that the Colts are actually good. But, the fact is they are below average. Sure, Jax is bad but my calculated line is Ind -5 so getting 7 here is a solid play. The Colts are 27th in rushing and 22nd in passing, while their defense is 19th vs the run and 19th vs the pass. They gain 5.3 YPP (16th) and give up 6.1 YPP (26th). There are multiple great trends on the Jags specifically because they are large home dogs after a blowout loss. Home dogs of 6.5+ off 30+ point loss are 27-10 Ats last 14 years.

[roccodean]

1* cin/ten under 43

[roccodean]

Nyg bumped to 3*!!

[LeRoy]

Nice start to the season Rocco

[KazDog]

Thanks for putting these out there Rocco!