NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thursday, September 11 - Monday, September 15)

[Udog]

Smoke and mirrors: NFL bettors shouldn't overract to these Week 1 results

One of the most important rules professional bettors live by is to never overreact to what takes place in Week 1 of the NFL season.

This is easier said than done, as football fans spend the summer months foaming at the mouth in anticipation of some real live game action. Therefore, when the first sixty minutes of a 17-week schedule comes to a conclusion, we tend to get overly excited by the big performances and unnecessarily critical of the poor showings.

Here’s a look at three teams that may be causing bettors and fans alike to overreact, based on what transpired this past weekend.

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5 at Cincinnati)

There’s no bigger showdown on the schedule for the Atlanta Falcons than a home date with division rival New Orleans and it took a flawless effort from quarterback Matt Ryan (31/43, 448 yards, 3 TDs), an overtime fumble committed by Saints wide receiver Marques Colston and two 50-plus yard field goals from Matt Bryant for Atlanta to escape with a 37-34 victory last Sunday.

The Falcons were expected to bounce back from last season’s dismal 4-12 campaign, but this organization shouldn’t be viewed as the 13-3 squad that advanced all the way to the NFC Championship game in 2012.

Don’t buy into any of the hype just yet and be sure to take note that the Falcons have already been bet from +4 to +5.5 for the team’s Week 2 non-conference matchup in Cincinnati.


Green Bay Packers (-9.5 vs. N.Y. Jets)

It doesn’t matter if it’s Joe Montana and Jerry Rice or the ’85 Bears, no team is going to look good in a primetime road showdown with the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.

In two primetime home contests last season, the Seahawks hammered the San Francisco 49ers 29-3 and trashed the New Orleans Saints 34-7, -and those were two damn good football teams.

Green Bay got the royal treatment from the defending champs in Week 1, but the Packers are still the favorites to win the NFC North and are currently listed at 12/1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

This franchise is far better than what we saw last Thursday night, as evidenced by a Week 2 line move from -8 to as high as -9.5 for Sunday’s home date against the New York Jets.


Detroit Lions (+2.5 at Carolina)

If a team is opening up the season at home on a Monday night, they’re guaranteed to benefit from an electric atmosphere that not only helps fuel the adrenaline coursing through the veins of its players, but also aids in preventing the opposition from finding a consistent rhythm.

Case in point: the Detroit Lions, who looked nothing like a franchise that has recorded just one winning season since 2001 in the team’s 35-14 dismantling of the New York Giants.

Tom Coughlin’s crew was lousy in all three phases of the game and made the Lions look like one of the most well-oiled machines in all of professional football. New head coach Jim Caldwell may have something cooking in Detroit, but it will take more than just a good effort against a lousy team for sharp bettors to buy into the hype.

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, September 11


Thursday Night Football weather update

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens Thursday night and there is some weather in the forecast before you make your wagers on the game.

There is currently a 58 percent chance of rain at kickoff with temperatures in the mid 70s. There will also be a 10 mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast corner of M&T Bank Stadium.

The Ravens are currently 2;5-point home faves with the total sitting at 44.5.


Huge line move in Week 2 matchup

Since the New York Giants opened as slight favorites for their Week 2 matchup with the Arizona, bettors have hammered the Cardinals, resulting in the line moving significantly in their favor.

The Giants opened as at -1.5 and were as high as -2 before bettors started piling on the Cardinals. The line has moved a total of 4.5-points since then and now sits at Arizona -2.5.

The Cardinals showed they have a strong defense and can be clutch with their 18-17 win over San Diego, while the Giants looked completely lost against the Lions.

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Lions (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0)-- Newton is expected back at QB after Anderson won season opener last week. Carolina is 2-8 in last ten home openers, 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17; they're 9-4-1 as home favorites under Rivera. Panthers won four of six series games, three of four here. Since 1990, Detroit is 1-8 vs spread in road openers that weren't in Week 1. Both teams opened with wins; Lions are on a short week after outgaining Giants 417-197 Monday night. Of 29 plays of 20+ yards last week that came on 3rd down, Detroit had four of them. Johnson had 164 receiving yards with two TDs. Lions were 11-15-2 as road underdog under Schwartz; they're 3-10 in last 13 road openers.

Jaguars (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1)--- Jaguars led 17-0 at half in Philly last week, with TD drives of 44-21 yards after Eagle turnovers, but they couldn't even cover as an 11-point dog. Jags are 4-5 as road dogs under Bradley, 4-16 in last 20 games against NFC teams. Since '11, they're 8-23-1 as single digit underdogs. Since '88, Redskins are 1-7 vs spread in home openers that weren't in Week 1; Washington won four of five games vs Jags, winning last two in OT; Jax is 0-2 here, but last visit was in '06. Skins scored first on 46-yard drive in Houston last week, but PAT was blocked and they didn't score again; since '06, they're 9-19-1 as home favorites. Washington lost its last two home openers, allowing 71 points.

Cowboys (0-1) @ Titans (1-0)-- Tennessee was bet down from 100-1 to 60-1 to win Super Bowl after 26-10 win at Arrowhead last week, when they outgained KC by 160 yards. Titans won three of last four home openers, but are 3-6-1 vs spread in last 10 HOs when favored. Cowboys are 13-8 as road underdogs, 10-6 vs AFC under Garrett; they're 6-1 in last seven road openers, with dogs covering last four- they split two visits to Nashville. Romo threw three 1st half picks in 28-17 home loss to 49ers last week; Niners had defensive TD and a 2-yard TD drive. Last nine years, Titans are 24-12-1 vs spread vs NFC teams- they're 8-11-1 in last 20 games as a home favorite.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)-- Arizona covered its last six road openers, going 4-2 SU; they pulled out 18-17 home win late Monday night, are 10-5-1 vs spread on road last two years. Redbirds were 6-1 vs number LY in games with spread of 3 or less points- they're 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional road games. Giants are 7-3 in last ten series games, but Arizona won last visit here, in '09. Big Blue got outgained 417-197 in Detroit Monday night; they lost last two home openers. Over is 8-0-1 in Week 2 Giant games the last nine years. Over last eight years, Giants are 16-23-1 vs spread at home. Arizona is 12-9-1 vs spread in game following its last 22 wins. Giants are still struggling with new offense; will home crowd help them?

Patriots (0-1) @ Vikings (1-0)-- Over last decade, New England is 25-9 vs spread in game following a loss; they're 5-7 in games vs NFC teams last three years. Pats got shut out 23-0 in second half of 33-20 loss in Miami last week; thery won last three series games, by 7-24-10 points; they've split four visits here. Vikings were 0-6 vs spread in last six Metrodome openers, with all games decided by 4 or less points; they're playing outdoors for two years, as new stadium is built. Vikes won opener 34-6 last week, running for 186 yards as WR Patterson proves to be threat running, catching ball. Remember that Viking QB Cassel was Brady's backup from 2005-08, playing whole season in '08 after Brady got hurt early in opener. Peterson will not play in this game due to his legal problems in Texas. Spread doubled as a result.

Dolphins (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)—Buffalo won three of last four series games, winning 19-14/19-0 in last two played here; Miami lost seven of last nine visits here overall. Dolphins outscored Pats 23-0 in second half of impressive 33-20 home win last week; their two takeaways created short fields that saw Fish score on TD drives of 15-34 yards. Miami lost eight of last ten road openers (2-6-1 vs spread in last nine). 10 of their last 12 road openers stayed under the total. Bills won four of last six home openers, are 8-6 vs spread in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo covered five of last six divisional home games; they covered six of eight at home in Marrone’s first year as HC.

Saints (0-1) @ Browns (0-1)—New Orleans continues to struggle on road; they failed to cover last five tries as road favorite, are 8-9 vs spread in last 17 games on grass, but they covered 17 of last 23 vs AFC teams, are 14-6 in last 20 games that followed a loss. Cleveland rallied back from down 27-3 at half last week, lost at gun to Steelers, but they had good balance on offense, running for 183 yards, passing for 206. Browns are 6-4 vs spread in last ten games as a home underdog- they won three of last four games with Saints, with visitor winning all four- they’re 12-17-3 vs spread vs NFC teams since ’06. Saints gave up 568 yards in Atlanta last week, but this opponent ain’t the Falcons.

Falcons (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)— Both teams off divisional wins last week. Cincinnati was 6-0 as home favorite LY, after being 13-27-2 the nine years before that; they hadn’t scored a TD last week until 77-yard bomb to Green with 4:58 left that saved them in Baltimore, after they blew 15-0 halftime lead. Bengals are 16-6-2 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC teams, 22-10 in game following last 32 wins. Falcons won last three series games by 27-2-7 points, with three of last four series totals 56+. Atlanta lost four of six visits here, but haven’t been here since ’06. Falcons are 15-9 vs spread in AFC games under Smith; they’re 21-16-1 vs spread in game after wins the last four years.

Rams (0-1) @ Bucs (0-1)—Tampa Bay didn’t force turnover last week, losing 20-14 to Carolina backup QB Anderson; now Rams visit with backup Hill under center, after they got crushed 34-6 at home by Minnesota. St Louis lost its last 12 road openers; they’re 2-12 vs spread in last 14 road openers, but beat Bucs 28-13/23-13 last two years, with ’12 win here its first in last six visits to Tampa. Rams are 9-7 as road dogs under Fisher, 5-4 in non-division games. Bucs are 7-10-1 as home favorites last four years; Smith was 12-19-1 as home fave his last six years in Chicago. Rams’ DE Chris Long is out two months; he’ll miss first games of his NFL career during that time. Bucs are 11-20 vs spread in game following their last 31 losses.

Seahawks (1-0) @ Chargers (0-1)—Bolts frittered away game in Arizona late Monday night, losing two fumbles and botching shotgun snap that took them out of FG range at key time late in game; they ran ball for only 52 yards, lost C Hardwick to injury (check status). Defending champ Seattle waxed Packers in home opener four nights earlier; they won six of last seven series games, with seven of last nine meetings decided by 3 or less points- they won last three visits here, but last one was in 2002. Seahawks are just 6-6 as road favorites under Carroll, but 5-2 in non-divisional games. San Diego won three of last four home openers, scoring 24+ points in last six; nine of their last 11 home openers went over total.

Houston (1-0) @ Oakland (0-1)-- Raiders' rookie QB Carr plays against team his brother once played for; his backup Schaub was Houston's QB this time last year. Texans were 0-3 as road favorites LY, after being 8-4-1 the three years before that; they blocked punt for TD last week, in game where Redskins outgained them by 56 yards. Oakland had only 25 rushing yards, was 3-12 on 3rd down in 19-14 loss at Swamp Stadium; not lot of NFL teams lose with +2 turnover ratio. Houston won three of four visits here; home team lost five of last seven series games. Oakland is 3-7 as home underdog under Allen, 2-8 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Houston won its last five road openers.

Jets (0-1) @ Packers (1-0)-- Green Bay drew short straw, having to play in Seattle last week; their reward was extra three days off after, but they lost RT for year, and their center is new player. Jets are 8-3 in seldom-played series, scoring total of 17 points in three losses- they are 11-14-1 as road dogs under Ryan, lost last three road openers by 10-17-3 points, but covered 12 of last 17, with five of last seven staying under. Pack is 21-11 in last 32 games as home favorite; they won six of last seven home openers, scoring 34 ppg in last four; they're 4-2 in last six home openers that weren't in Week 1. Since '09, Green Bay is 15-8 vs spread in game afetr a loss- they play all three division rivals the next three weeks.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Broncos (1-0)-- Thought #18 missed Welker last week, especially in second half, when they needed first downs to kill clock. Welker apparently will not play, since new drug agreement wasn't signed on time. KC was -3 in turnovers in dismal loss to Tennessee in home opener, after being +18 LY, -24 in '12; they lost two players to Achilles injuries, are banged up on OL- they ran ball for only 67 yards last week. Over last decade, Chiefs are 15-5 as double digit dog 12-7 as divisional road dogs since '07. Denver won last four games by average score of 29-14, winning 38-13/27-17 in last two played here. Broncos are 20-11-1 in game after a win, under Fox- they're 12-4 in last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bears (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0)-- Chicago lost home opener to Bills in OT last week, bad loss; they lost last seven visits to Candlestick, with Chicago's last win here in Super Bowl year ('85), but this is first game in new stadium for 49ers, who led 28-3 at half last week in Dallas and coasted home. Besrs are 4-5 in last nine road openers; 10 of their last 13 stayed under total- they're 4-10-1 in last 15 games as road dog, 7-12-2 in game following last 21 losses. 49ers are 15-6-1 as home favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 in non-division games- they're 20-11-2 in game after last 33 wins. Bears were outrushed 193-86 by Buffalo last week, passed for 341 yards, but only two plays of 20+ yards, while allowing six.

Eagles (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)-- Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in Colts' non-divisonal home games under Pagano (5-5 as home favorite); Indy is 9-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss the last two years. Philly was down 17-0 at half to Jags last week, but stopped turning ball over and won/covered 34-17, getting defensive TD in last 2:00. Since '07, Iggles are 19-7 as road underdogs. Colts won four of last five series games; this is Philly's first visit here since '06. Eagles won last five road openers, scored 31+ points in five of last six- they're 9-4 as underdogs in road openers. Colts won eight of last 11 home openers, but covered one of last four as favorite in HO's; they covered five of last six Week 2 home openers.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 2 line moves

Week 1 is in the books and it's probably a week of wagering that bettors would like to forget.

Underdogs had a huge week (11-5 against the spread) and the Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills knocked off three of the more popular plays of the week in the New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots and Chicago Bears respectively, making it a big pay day for the books.

But the past is the past and it's time to welcome a new day of wagers in the National Football League. We talk to Michael Stewart, oddsmaker for online sportsbook CarbonSports.ag, about the late line moves heading into kickoff Sunday:

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings - Open: +3, Move: +6, Move: +6.5

With the Adrian Peterson news breaking and creating yet another nightmare for the NFL, this is the game that has seen some wild line movement.

Sportsbooks opened with the Vikes being offered as 3-point home dogs, but moved to +3.5 when Peterson's status was moved to questionable Friday. Later in the evening, as news leaked that AP would be ruled out for the game, books adjusted +6 and have largely been taking Pats money since.

"With that news we have seen a run of Patriot action pour in as the moneyline and spread are seeing 79 percent and 73 percent respectively, with the 48 point total greeting 79 percent of the action on the Over," Stewart told Covers.


Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Open: Bills -1, Move: Pick

Who would have thought that a Week 2 meeting between the Dolphins and Bills could be so important? But that's where we are with the AFC East in 2014. Both are coming off big upset victories in Week 1 but it's the Dolphins that travel north and will play the role of road team in this matchup.

Furthermore, the 42.5 total is one of the lowest on the board, but betters are still supporting a low-scoring game. For good reason too as the previous two meetings in Buffalo have both cashed for Under bettors.

"We have this game at a pick'em with the Dolphins getting 64 percent of the action," Stewart says. "While the Bills are getting 72 percent of the action on the moneyline and the 42.5 point total is getting 62 percent of the action on the under."


St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Open: -3.5, Move: -4, Move: -6

If we gleaned anything from Week 1, it's that the Rams are terrible. St. Louis was thoroughly trounced by a spirited Vikings team in front of their own fans.

They'll be in tough here as the Buccaneers will look to bounce back from an ultimately disappointing effort in their own right versus the Carolina Panthers in Week 1 and bettors foresee the Bucs doing just that Sunday.

"Our bettors are expecting the Bucs to bounce back after a lackluster Week 1 effort as they are getting 81 percent and 61 percent of the action on the money and spread respectively," Stewart says.

As for the total, the 37.5 points being offered are indeed the lowest on the board and though there is "good two-way action", Stewart says that 56 percent of action is siding with the Over.


Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants - Open: -1, Move: Pick, Move: +1, Move: +2.5

These two teams took the stage on Monday Night Football with the Cardinals scraping out a win over the San Diego Chargers and the Giants looking hopeless in a 35-14 beatdown courtesy of the Detroit Lions.

Books opened this one anywhere from a Pick to Giants -2.5 depending on where you shop, but last week's performances are fresh in bettors' minds as it's the Cards that are seeing the bulk of action here.

"It's all Cards action on this one with 65 percent and 74 percent of the action on the Cards for the money and side, while the 42.5 point total is seeing mostly under money with 76 percent of the action," Stewart told us.


New York Jets at Green Bay Packers - Open: -8

Another team that got stomped in Week 1 was the Packers, who took it on the chin in a 36-16 loss to the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.

Bettors like them to regroup and put a notch in the win column as they are being backed in fairly convincing numbers.

"Everyone expects the packers to bounce back at home as the action has been pouring in in them with 94 percent and 70 percent on the money and side respectively," Stewart says. "The 46 point total is getting 69 percent of the action."

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 37)

Rams’ penalty problems vs. Bucs’ discipline

Week 1 stats should be kept at an arm’s length when it comes to capping your Week 2 wagers but it’s hard to ignore the 121 penalty yards the Rams racked up on 13 infractions in their loss to Minnesota – the most in Week 1.

The offense was the biggest culprit, getting whistled for three false starts, two holds, and two offensive pass interference calls. Sprinkle in a roughing the kicker and roughing the passer, a 15-yard face mask and a flag for taunting, and it’s easy to see why the Vikings were able to put up 34 points with that mediocre offense.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, was an angel in Week 1. The Buccaneers summoned only three flags – tied for the fewest in Week 1 – two for encroachment and one on a false start. This is a huge change in attitude from last season when the Bucs ranked third in penalties (71 yards per game), just ahead of the Rams (63.06).

New coach Lovie Smith is already making his mark on Tampa Bay. The -5.5 points may seem like a lot for this Bucs offense to handle, but when the opposition is spotting you first downs left and right, you’ll get to the end zone sooner than later.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins (-6, 43)

Jaguars’ special teams vs. Redskins’ not-so special teams

There aren’t many things the Jaguars can hang their hat on. An improved defense that got after Eagles QB Nick Foles is one. The other is an underrated group on special teams.

Last season, Jacksonville ranked third overall in average yards per kick return (25.9) and was the best in the NFL at limiting opposing returners, giving up 20.4 yards against per return. In Week 1, Jordan Todman totaled 36 yards on two kick returns and punter Bryan Anger did a good job pinning Philadelphia deep in their own end.

Washington’s special team issues were in full effect in Week 1. The Redskins had a punt blocked – which Houston returned for six points – and had an extra point blocked as well. The 2013 squad allowed foes to average 16.8 yards per punt return – easily worst in the NFL – and watched three punts come back for scores.

“We kind of opened Pandora’s box now,” Redskins special teams captain Adam Hayward told the Washington Times. “Now for the rest of the season, everyone’s going to try to come after us. So, that’s something we’re going to have to fix immediately, because I don’t want to be like last year.”


Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 43.5)

Lions’ troubles with TEs vs. Panthers’ TE Greg Olsen

The Lions defense looked solid in a Week 1 thumping of the Giants. But was Detroit playing that good or was New York just that bad? The one area the Giants were able to consistently beat the Lions is at tight end, with Eli Manning finding TE Larry Donnell for 56 yards and a TD on five catches - some key grabs from the big man in the middle.

This is nothing new to Detroit’s stop unit, which has struggled against opposing tight ends going back to last year. During the team’s disastrous four-game skid to end the schedule, the Lions gave up a total of 179 yards on 18 catches by tight ends – an average of 9.94 yards per grab (pretty much a first down per completion). Many of those receptions led to third-down conversions.

Enter a former NFC North foe (with Chicago) in Panthers TE Greg Olsen, who is primed for a breakout year after reeling in eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown in Carolina’s upset win over Tampa Bay. Olsen, who served as a great safety net for fill-in QB Derek Anderson last Sunday, will still get plenty of touches with Cam Newton coming back.

The Panthers lost their three top WRs from last season and with Detroit’s front seven bringing the heat and not giving an injured Newton much time to look downfield, Olsen is not only a huge X-factor in Week 2 but could be the fantasy football sleeper of Sunday for those struggling with their “start em, sit em’s”.


Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 48.5)

Bears’ run game vs. Niners’ run defense

The Niners didn’t play all that well in Week 1. Yeah, they smoked the Cowboys 28-17 on the scoreboard but benefited from three Romo INTs and a fumble from DeMarco Murray on the opening drive of the game. Dallas seems to spot every opponent three or four turnovers.

The biggest blemish coming out of the opener were the 118 rushing yards Murray posted – his 5.4 yards per carry were the most allowed by San Francisco since 2009 (minimum 20 carries), according to SFGate.com. It’s a glaring defensive stat with stud linebackers Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman in civies.

The 49ers face a who’s who of fantasy first-rounders in the coming weeks, starting with Bears versatile playmaker Matt Forte Sunday night. After Forte, San Fran has to slow down Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and Chiefs bruiser Jamaal Charles.

Forte had 169 combined yards (running and receiving) in the upset loss to the Bills Sunday, picking up 82 yards on 17 carries and 87 yards on eight catches. Bears coach Marc Trestman is an offensive mastermind and will attack any weakness in the Niners’ defense. So, you could see him test San Francisco’s depth with an up-tempo attack featuring plenty of No. 22.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 14

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Game of the Day: Bears at 49ers
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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 48)

Reports of the demise of the San Francisco 49ers' defense appear to be more than slightly exaggerated after the unit registered four turnovers in an easy season-opening victory over Dallas. The 49ers face another high-powered offense when they host the Chicago Bears on Sunday night in the first game at Levi's Stadium. "Everyone that's been talking about our defense, about how we won't be as good and what not, I don't get caught up in all that," Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis said.

While the 49ers picked off three first-half passes en route to an early knockout of the Cowboys, a pair of interceptions also proved to be costly for the Bears, leading to 10 points in an eventual 23-20 overtime defeat to visiting Buffalo. "Obviously we made mistakes today and we've got to clean them up and got to keep it going," Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler said after throwing for 349 yards and a pair of scores. It will mark the first matchup between the teams since San Francisco drubbed the visiting Bears 32-7 in November 2012.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: 49ers -7. O/U: 48.5

LINE HISTORY: After opening at 49ers -7, the line briefly dropped to -6.5 before moving back to -7 where it currently sits. The total has opened at 48 and has yet to move.

INJURY REPORT: Bears: WR Brandon Marshall (Ques-Ankle), G Matt Slauson (Ques-Ankle), WR Ashlon Jeffery (Ques-Hamstring) 49ers: T Anthony Davis (Ques-Hamstring), S Jimmie Ward (Ques-Concussion), CB Chris Culliver (Ques-Concussion)

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+1.5) + 49ers (-6.5) + Home Field (-3) = 49ers (-11)

WEATHER REPORT: Currently a zero percent chance of clouds or rain, but wind could be a factor with gusts up to nine mph.

ABOUT THE BEARS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Chicago has some major injury concerns with starting wide receivers Brandon Marshall (ankle) and Alshon Jeffrey (hamstring) sitting out practice against Thursday, although Marshall said: "I'll be out there Sunday." The duo each had 71 yards receiving last week following a stellar 2013 campaign in which Marshall had 100 catches and 12 touchdowns and Jeffrey added 89 receptions and 1,421 yards receiving. That could force the Bears to rely even more on running back Matt Forte, who rushed for 82 yards on 17 carries and matched Marshall's total of eight catches for 87 yards against the Bills. Chicago's defense, a sieve for much of last season, limited Buffalo to 15 first downs but gave up 193 yards on the ground.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Colin Kaepernick, who made his first career start in the lopsided victory over Chicago two years ago, threw for only 201 yards but tossed a pair of second-quarter scoring passes to tight end Vernon Davis and guided San Francisco to 7-of-12 efficiency on third-down conversions. Veteran running back Frank Gore rushed for 66 yards to go over 10,000 yards for his career while rookie Carlos Hyde made quite an impression in his NFL debut by chipping in 50 yards and a score on only seven carries. Willis was among three players to record an interception and veteran Justin Smith had two sacks to pace a defense that didn't allow the Cowboys into the end zone until the final 30 seconds of the third quarter.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in 49ers last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 12-3 in Bears last 15 road games.
* Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 63.35 percent of users are taking the 49ers -7, with 51 percent taking over 48.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 14


Super Bowl victors struggle in first road game

If trends are any indicator, the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks are not going to be cashing tickets for their backers in their first road game as defending Champs.

Super Bowl winners are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road openers and are 7-15 ATS in the last 22 seasons. If not for the New York Giants covering in 2012 at the Carolina Panthers and 2008 at the St. Louis Rams, it would be a clean 0-9 ATS since 2004 when the New England Patriots covered as 7.5-point faves at the Arizona Cardinals.

Last season, the Baltimore Ravens were defeated soundly by the Denver Broncos 49-27 and failed to cover as +7.5 road dogs in that game.

The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks travel south to visit the San Diego Chargers for their first road test of the season in Week 2. The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Chargers as 5.5-point home dogs for the matchup.


Favorites cashing in between Bills-Dolphins

The favorite has been living up to its billing in recent matchups between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.

Underdogs have gone just 1-5 against the faves in the last six meetings between the AFC East rivals. The Bills are currently 1-point home faves with a total of 42.5.


Falcons a boon for Over bettors in September

Trends are showing Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have had no problem putting plenty of points on the board in the month of September.

The Over is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four September games. After last week's 37-34 shootout victory over the New Orleans Saints, the Falcons face off against the Cincinnati Bengals in Ohio Sunday.

Cincy is presently -5.5 home faves with an O/U of 48.5.


Trends show Vikings a solid play ATS

The Minnesota Vikings have been a nice play for bettors betting against the spread, going 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games.

The Adrian Peterson-less Vikes host the New England Patriots at TCF Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon.

The Pats are currently 6-point faves with a total of 48.


Titans red-hot on the Over in Tennessee

The Tennessee Titans have treated their hometown fans to some high-scoring games as of late.

The Over is a sizzling 6-1 in the Titans' last seven games in Nashville. Tennessee hosts Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.

The Titans are currently 3.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 49.5 for the matchup.


Cardinals getting job done vs. bad teams

The Arizona Cardinals have done a good job covering against teams on the wrong side of .500 and that's exactly the spot they'll be in when they visit the New York Giants Sunday.

The Cardinals 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games against a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are currently 1-point road dogs and quarterback Carson Palmer is questionable

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 14


Grass slowing down Saints offense?

The New Orleans Saints are known for their high-powered offense, but being away from the turf at the Super Dome and on natural grass has stalled that offense.

The under is 6-0 in the Saints last six games on grass and is actually 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games overall.

The Saints will take the grass field in Cleveland Sunday with a total currently at 48.5.


Panthers are an under machine

The Carolina Panthers have developed into one of the top defenses in the NFL and it has shown when it comes to their totals record.

The Panthers have become one of the leagues top under pays with plenty of stats to back it up. The under is 10-1 in the Panthers last 11 games overall, it is 8-0 in their last eight versus the NFC, 7-0 in the Panthers last seven following an ATS win and is 13-3 in their last 16 games on grass.

The Panthers host the Detroit Lions Sunday, where the total is currently sitting 44.


Miami trending Under vs. division rivals

The Miami Dolphins have participated in a lot of low-scoring games against their division rivals, as the Under has gone 10-2 in the Dolphins' last 12 games against the AFC East.

It'll be another clash of AFC East teams Sunday when Miami takes on the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills are currently 1.5-point faves with a total of 42.5.


Titans having trouble covering at home

The Tennessee Titans have been posting ugly numbers against the spread at LP Field, going 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.

Tennessee hosts the Dallas Cowboys in Nashville Sunday afternoon. The Titans are presently -3.5 favorites with an Over/Under of 49.5.


Patriots have been a risky ATS play on the road

If you've been backing the New England Patriots against the spread away from home lately, your pockets have been taking a hit.

The Pats are just 1-7 ATS in their previous eight road games. After dropping their season opener against the Miami Dolphins, New England visits Minnesota in Week 2 action Sunday.

Minnesota is currently 5.5-point home dogs, and oddsmakers currently have set a total of 48.5 for the matchup.


Falcons solid ATS in Week 2

The Atlanta Falcons have been a fantastic play for spread bettors in the second game of the season, going 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 2 games.

The Falcons clash against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium Sunday afternoon.

The Bengals are currently 6-point home faves with a total of 49.


Washington failing to put up the points at home

Washington's new offense did not start their season on the right note, scoring just six points at Houston and are trending in the same direction for their home opener.

The under is 6-0 in Washington's last six home games versus a team with a losing record.

Washington welcomes the Jacksonville Jaguars to town Sunday, where the total is currently on the board at 42.5.


Thunderstorms expected for Bucs-Panthers matchup

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the St. Louis Rams in the Sunshine State Sunday, the elements could play a big factor.

Forecasts are currently calling for thunderstorms to hit the Tampa Bay area at gametime with a 54 percent chance of precipitation. It's going to be hot and humid, with a temperature of 86 degrees Fahrenheit expected at kickoff.

The Bucs are currently 5.5-point home faves with a total of 38 for the matchup.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 14


Rams expected to start thrid-string QB against Bucs

The St. Louis Rams are already on their third starting quarterback of the season and it is only Week 2.

Accoring to NFL Networks' Ian Rapoport, the Rams are expected to turn to third-string quarterback Austin Davis for their Week 2 matchup against the Tamp Bay Buccaneers, while backup-turned-starter Shaun Hill is dealing with a thigh injury.

The Bucs are currently 5.5-point home faves versus the Rams.


Giants struggling to cover in September

September has not been the New York Giants favorite month the last two seasons and will look to buck a trend that continued when they looked like a mess against the Lions Monday night.

The Giants haven't covered a spread in their last six September games, putting up a 0-5-1 ATS record.

New York hosts the Arizona Cardinals as 1-point home dogs Sunday.


Browns struggling to cover at home

The Cleveland Browns host the New Orleans Saints at the 'Dog Pound' Sunday, a place where they have had trouble covering.

The Browns are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and to make matters worse they are also 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing record.

Unfortunately for the Browns the Saints come to town with a losing record and are currently 6-point home dogs.


This stat shows importance of good starts to season

How crucial is it to get out of the gate on the right foot in the NFL?

NFL Network Gameday First host Melissa Stark tweeted Sunday that in the last five years, the 2013 Carolina Panthers are the only team to begin the season 0-2 and make the playoffs.

For high profile teams who suffered Week 1 losses like New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Chicago, New Orleans and Kansas City, bouncing back and picking up a victory in Week 2 is even more important - unless they can repeat the success of last year's Panthers squad, of course.


Lions have trouble following up big wins

The Detroit Lions are coming off a solid 35-14 win on Monday Night Football and covered the 6.5-point spread easily, but have trouble when it comes to following up big performances.

The Lions are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games following an ATS win. To make matters worse they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

The Lions visit the Carolina Panthers Sunday, who get Cam Newton returning to their lineup and 2.5-point home faves.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 15

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Monday Night Football: Eagles at Colts
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Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 54)

Year 2 of the Chip Kelly regime got off to a shaky start for the Philadelphia Eagles, who faced an early 17-point deficit before roaring back with 34 unanswered points in their season-opening victory over Jacksonville. The Eagles will hope for a better jump out of the gate when they visit Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. The Colts also dug themselves a big hole in their opener, falling behind by 24 points before a belated rally came up short against Denver.

Philadelphia did earn a spot in the record books in its 34-17 victory, becoming the first team in league history to win by at least 17 points after being shut out at the half and trailing by at least 17. “The big thing is that as a team, we stuck together,” Eagles quarterback Nick Foles said. “My teammates stuck with me and we never wavered." Indianapolis allowed three second-quarter touchdown passes to Peyton Manning before its defense stepped up in the second half and held the Broncos to 87 total yards.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: ********* opened the Colts as 3-point home favorites. The total opened at 53.5 but is now up to 54.

INJURY REPORT: Eagles - T Matt Tobin (Out indefinitely, ankle). Colts - LB Jerrell Freeman (Out, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Eagles (-0.75) + Colts (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -4.25

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): Now entrenched as the starter after coming off the bench to throw 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions last season, Foles had an interception and lost a pair of fumbles in the first half before regrouping to throw for 183 of his 322 yards and two TDs after intermission to rally Philadelphia. One big positive on offense came from wideout Jeremy Maclin, who had four catches for 97 yards and a score after missing last season with a knee injury. Newcomer Darren Sproles, signed away from New Orleans as a free agent, also made a big impact by rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles' defense also came up big by forcing six straight punts to open the second half, including four consecutive three-and-outs.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-1, SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U ATS): Luck has already carved out a niche as the master of the comeback during his short tenure in the NFL and he nearly pulled off another, rushing for one score and throwing for a pair of fourth-quarter TDs en route to a 370-yard passing day last week. One unresolved question for Indianapolis is the impact of running back Trent Richardson, a non-factor last season who was limited to 20 yards on six carries after the Colts fell way behind. A bigger issue is replacing linebacker Robert Mathis, who led the league last season with 19.5 sacks but suffered a torn Achilles during a workout in Atlanta. "Tough, tough pill to swallow," coach Chuck Pagano said. "Right now they're still absorbing it, the enormity and shock of it."

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Eagles last six games in Week 2.

CONSENSUS: 62 percent of wagers on Consensus are behind the Colts.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 15


Colts-Eagles lights out on the Over

When the Indianapolis Colts and the Philadelphia Eagles get together, high-scoring games tend to follow.

The last five meetings between the two teams have gone over the total. They'll meet again in primetime action on Monday Night Football.

The Colts are currently 3-point home faves with a total of 54 - the highest total of any Week 2 NFL game.


Philadelphia ice cold ATS versus Indianapolis

The Philadelphia Eagles have had a hard time covering for their backers against the Indianapolis Colts recently, going 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus Indy.

That's a trend bettors need to be aware of when the Eagles visit the Colts Monday. Indianapolis is presently 3-point faves with the total set at 54 for the matchup.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 15


Cowboys have biggest underdog cover Sunday

Underdogs went 7-6-1 against the spread Sunday, but the biggest and maybe most surprising to some was the huge cover by the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys closed as three-point road dogs for their meeting with the Tennessee Titans and came away with a big 26-10 win, covering by a big 19 points.

Dallas are 1-1 against the spread this season and head to St. Louis to take on the Rams in Week 3.


Super Bowl champs fail to cover on road again

Earlier in the week, we looked at how recent Super Bowl winners have fared in their first road game as defending champs.

The results against the spread were not positive as just two of the previous nine champs had covered in that spot.

Add the Seattle Seahawks to the list of champs who couldn't cover the spread in their first road game. The Seahawks closed as 4.5-point road faves at the San Diego Chargers and lost outright by a score of 30-21.

Certainly a trend to keep remember for the 2015 season.


Despite injuries, Washington has biggest cover Sunday

Washington lost quarterback Robert Griffin lll and receiver DeSean Jackson in the first quarter of Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that didn't stop them from having the biggest cover of the day.

Washington, which closed as a 5-point home favorite, still easily covered the spread by a whopping 26 points thanks to backup quarterback Kirk Cousins, leading them to a 41-10 win.

Washington is now 1-1 against the spread this season. The question is who will be Washington's signal caller next week? The odds for their game at Philadelphia is currently off the board.


Austin to have MRI on injured knee Monday

According to ProFootballTalk, St. Louis Rams wide receiver Tavon Austin will have an MRI on his knee Monday.

Austin injured his knee in the Rams' 19-17 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday.

The eighth-overall pick in the 2013 draft has not exactly lived up to the hype and has just three catches on four targets for 34 yards.

The Rams host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. Lines for this matchup are currently off the board.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Eagles at Colts

September 14, 2014

The Eagles play their second straight interconference game to start the season, as Philadelphia hopes to duplicate its second half against Jacksonville and not repeat its first half effort that put them in a 17-0 hole. Indianapolis hopes to finish a possible comeback on Monday night, not to fall behind by 24 points like it did at Denver last Sunday night, as the Colts try to get into the win column.

Both the Eagles and Colts showcase terrific young quarterbacks fresh off playoff appearances last season, as Andrew Luck has been tremendous off a loss in his short career. Coming off last Sunday’s 31-24 defeat to the Broncos as eight-point underdogs, the Colts enter Monday’s action with a perfect 10-0 straight-up and against the spread record since 2012 off a loss. In this span, Indianapolis has knocked off San Francisco, Denver, and Green Bay in this situation, while the Colts have won five of their past seven games against NFC opponents.

The first half was pretty forgettable for the Colts at Sports Authority Field in Week 1, as Peyton Manning burned his former team for three touchdowns in the second quarter to give the Broncos a commanding 24-0 lead. Indianapolis scored a late first half touchdown to cut the deficit to 24-7 at halftime, but couldn’t convert on a fourth-and-goal in the opening minutes of the third quarter to get within 10 points. The Colts limited the Broncos to just seven points in the second half, as Indianapolis’ comeback ultimately came up short in the seven-point setback.

Philadelphia entered the season opener as the largest favorite on the board, laying 10 points against Jacksonville. The Jaguars put a scare into the Eagles by jumping out to a 17-0 advantage at halftime, but Philadelphia scored two quick touchdowns in the third quarter to trim the lead down to three heading into the fourth quarter. Jacksonville backers still felt good with eight minutes remaining in regulation and the game tied at 17-17, as Nick Foles hit Jeremy Maclin on a 67-yard touchdown strike to give the Eagles the lead for good. A late defensive touchdown by the Eagles gave Chip Kelly’s team the fortunate cover in a 34-17 triumph, while the 34 points in the second half also cashed the ‘over’ of 49.

The last time the Eagles and Colts hooked up in 2010, Manning and Michael Vick were the quarterbacks at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia held off Indianapolis, 26-24, but the Colts cashed as 3 ½-point road underdogs thanks to a late touchdown run in the final two minutes of regulation. The Eagles are making their first trip to Lucas Oil Stadium, as Philadelphia lost in its previous stop to Indianapolis at the RCA Dome in 2006 by a 45-21 count.

Last season, Philadelphia put together a 6-2 record on the highway, but somehow allowed a whopping 100 points in the two losses at Denver and Minnesota. The Eagles struggled against AFC foes in Kelly’s first season, losing three of four interconference contests with the lone victory coming at Oakland, a 49-20 rout of the Raiders in which Foles tossed seven touchdown passes to officially nail down the job as Philadelphia’s starting quarterback.

The Colts have dominated at home since Luck became the starting quarterback in 2012, winning 14 of 17 games at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the first home Monday night contest for Indianapolis since 2010, as the Colts lost their only Monday game last season at San Diego, 19-9. The Eagles have split their last six games on Monday night since 2009, as all three of those victories coincidentally came at Washington, including last season’s season opening victory.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his views on this matchup, "This is a key game for the Colts to avoid an 0-2 start, especially seeing the strong start for the Texans who appear to be back as a contender in the division. Indianapolis has gone 33 straight games without consecutive losses, a NFL record, but Philadelphia presents one of the most difficult matchups in the league for a defense that allowed some big plays in the opener. The Eagles were an inconsistent team last season, known for offense but scoring 27 or fewer points in nine of 17 games last season."

Indianapolis opened as three-point home favorites and that number has stayed pretty steady for most of the week. The total is set between 54 and 54 ½ at most books, as the Eagles went 4-1 to the ‘over’ in five road games last season with totals listed above 50. The game kicks off at 8:35 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts host Eagles on MNF

September 14, 2014


Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 54

The Colts attempt to avoid an 0-2 start when they host the Eagles on Monday night.

Philadelphia got into trouble in Week 1 with a 17-0 deficit to the 9.5-point underdog Jaguars, but came out a completely different team in the second half, scoring 34 straight points to win 34-17. The club cannot afford to fall behind by that much against Indianapolis, which is a way more talented offense than the Jaguars, so zero points in the second half for Andrew Luck and company is rather unrealistic.

The Colts trailed the Broncos 31-10 early in the fourth quarter of their season opener, but cut the lead to 31-24 with just over three minutes remaining. Luck threw for 370 yards with two touchdowns in the game, but was not able to bring his team back to tie it.

Indy would be wise to ground-and-pound a little against the Eagles, as slowing the game down could disrupt Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense.

Since 1992, the Colts are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS (2-1 SU and ATS on road) versus the Eagles. Indianapolis is also 10-0 ATS in the past three seasons at home where the Total is at least 45.5 points. However, the Eagles are 21-14 ATS (60%) on Monday night since 1992.

On the injury front, Indianapolis lost LB Robert Mathis (Achilles) for the season, and might be without four other key defensive players on Monday who are all questionable -- LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring), CB Greg Toler (ribs), DE Arthur Jones (shoulder) and DB Sergio Brown (shoulder). The Eagles placed a couple of offensive linemen on IR this week (OT Allen Barbre and G Evan Mathis), but there are no other significant injuries to their squad.

The Eagles pressed the snooze button early on against the Jaguars, but finally awakened in the second half. QB Nick Foles was a disaster early on with an interception and two lost fumbles in the first half, but he found his groove early in the third. Foles finished the game with 322 passing yards and two touchdowns, and should have success against a beatable Colts secondary that allowed 6.92 yards per pass attempt last year (21st in NFL).

Last season's rushing champ, RB LeSean McCoy, had 21 carries for only 74 yards (3.5 YPC) against the Jaguars, but did catch six passes for 41 yards in the passing game. New teammate RB Darren Sproles rushed for 71 yards on 11 carries (6.5 YPC) with a touchdown in the game, and also caught four passes for 14 yards. These two backs will see a lot of action against the Colts, whose rushing defense is prone to giving up big plays.

Philly's run defense was excellent versus the Jaguars, allowing only 64 yards on 25 carries (2.6 YPC). Where the Eagles will need to improve is their defense against the pass. They allowed Chad Henne to throw for 266 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in their opener, and Andrew Luck is a far superior quarterback that Henne is, and he will make them pay if they don’t improve their coverage.

QB Andrew Luck did everything he could to bring his Colts team back into the game against Denver in Week 1, but the comeback fell just short. The good news is that Luck was able to make a ton of plays in the passing game and also rushed for 19 yards and a touchdown on five attempts. He should have no problem lighting up a far inferior Eagles secondary. WR Reggie Wayne caught nine passes for 98 yards in his first game since undergoing surgery on a torn ACL. He should be able to repeat his success against Philadelphia’s defense.

One area that must improve is the rushing offense. The Colts are a team that likes to pound the ball, but RB Trent Richardson rushed for only 20 yards on six carries against the Broncos. Indianapolis will need to establish the rush early, so that it can slow down the Eagles offense and prevent Luck from carrying too much of a load for his team.

The Colts defense allowed only 102 yards on 32 carries (3.2 YPC) against the Broncos, and if they can do the same against LeSean McCoy and the Eagles then they should be in good shape. Covering the middle of the field will be crucial, because Nick Foles likes to go right at the opposing safeties with deep passes.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Betting Recap - Week 2

September 15, 2014


NFL Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 10-5

Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 9-6

Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 5-10

NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 19-12

Against the Spread 13-17-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 19-12

Against the Spread 12-18-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-19


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Washington (-4.5) defeated Jacksonville 41-10 despite losing QB Robert Griffin III and WR Desean Jackson to injuries.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Kansas City (+13) lost to Denver 24-17 but still managed to cover. The Chiefs had an opportunity to tie the game late but the Broncos made a goal-line stand.

Biggest Underdog to Win Outright

Chicago (+290) trailed San Francisco 17-0 late in the first-half but rallied for a 28-20 win as seven-point road underdogs.

Cleveland (+200) nipped New Orleans 26-24 as a five-point home underdog.

Line Moves

There were plenty of moves on Sunday and some were right, while others were wrong. The winners were bettors who took the Browns (+6), Chargers (+5) and Jets (+7.5). The teams that didn't get respect from the professionals were the Panthers (-1), Redskins (-4.5), Cardinals (+1.5), Patriots (-3) and Rams (+5.5). Carolina and Arizona's moves were also related to injuries.

Braggin' Rights

The AFC went 4-3 against the NFC in Week 2, victories by the Browns, Bengals, Chargers and Patriots. NFC winners were the Cowboys, Packers and Redskins. The last non-conference matchup of Week 2 takes place on Monday between the Eagles and Colts.

Undefeated (2-0)

Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, Houston, Philadelphia (Pending)

The Broncos are the only unbeaten team that has failed to cover a number.

Winless (0-2)

Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, New York Giants, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis (Pending)

The Saints have lost their two games by a combined five points.

Favorites Bounce Back

After watching the underdogs go 11-5 against the spread in Week 1, favorites rebounded a little bit with an 8-6-1 ATS mark in Week 2.

The point-spread didn’t matter in 13 of the first 15 games in Week 2. Denver won but failed to cover and Green Bay defeated the N.Y. Jets 31-24 as seven-point home favorites.

Totals

The ‘under’ went 6-2 in the early games on Sunday while the ‘over’ produced a 3-2 mark in the late games.

New England built a 24-7 lead at halftime and shutout Minnesota 6-0 in the final two quarters. The 37 combined points came up short of the closing number (49).

In their 30-14 home loss to the Texans, the Raiders put up a late touchdown to push the game ‘over’ the closing total of 41. Down 23 points, Oakland was actually calling timeouts to post the meaningless score.

The game-winning field goal by the Browns (26-24) helped that game go ‘over’ the closing number of 49 ½. This line was as high as 50 ½ points earlier in the day, leaving bettors with middle opportunities.

Kansas City’s failure to execute late at Denver kept the game ‘under’ the total (49). If the Chiefs score, the game is tied 24-24 and likely headed to overtime.

The SNF contest between the 49ers and Bears had a middle opportunity. The number was as high as 48.5 this week but most shops closed at 47.5. The final result was 48 combined points.