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**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:32 AM

NFC North NFL betting preview: Lions dangerous in deep division

The Packers, Bears and Lions all have legit shots at the NFC North crown, which should make for some interesting games between those heated rivals. The Vikings, on the other hand, look to Adrian Peterson’s aging legs and a new coaching staff to keep them competitive – and out of the basement - in the division.

Green Bay Packers (2013: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: -145
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Packers: After winning at least 10 games for four straight seasons, the Packers won just eight games last season but it wasn't because of a team regression. Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 9, Green Bay suffered through a five-game losing streak, and while Rodgers came back to win the season finale to take the division, it was an early playoff exit. The Packers will be a motivated bunch this season.

Why not bet the Packers: Defense. The Packers allowed 26.8 points per game last season, the most given up in over a decade and a repeat of that will cause issues. The return of Clay Matthews and the addition of Julius Peppers will certainly help, but will it be enough? A running game behind Rodgers is essential as well but that’s no guarantee either.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5

Chicago Bears (2013: 8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +310
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Bears: This is the second year in the system under head coach Marc Trestman and after improving last season, things could be even more explosive in 2014. Jay Cutler had his best passer rating since his rookie season in 2006 and got a new contract to prove his worth. The defense can only get better with the additions of Jared Allen and D.J Williams.

Why not to bet the Bears: Similar to Green Bay, it comes down to the defense which allowed almost two touchdowns per game more than the previous season. But even an improved stop unit may not be enough. Keeping Cutler healthy is huge as there is no proven backup. Should he go down again, the Bears will be outside of the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Detroit Lions (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +360
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Lions: After making the playoffs just once in five years under Jim Schwartz, a change was made and Jim Caldwell was brought in. The offense will again be explosive behind Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the return of the entire offensive line. The defense could be the best in years and a tame schedule could make Detroit a sleeper in the NFC North.

Why not to bet the Lions: Expectations have been high for the last few years and the Lions have failed to meet them, so why should this year be any different? Bringing in a new head coach can't hurt but Caldwell was not the popular choice. He was the offensive coordinator in Baltimore last season and the Ravens were 29th in the league in total offense.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Minnesota Vikings (2013: 5-10-1 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1300
Season win total: 6

Why to bet the Vikings: New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows. Four of the Vikings’ losses were by four points or less and now with low expectations, they could turn the tables on some of those winnable games. The schedule is in their favor as they play only three teams that had a winning record last season.

Why not to bet the Vikings: While the schedule is tame, it is frontloaded. Facing New England, New Orleans, Atlanta and Green Bay in Weeks 2 through 5 could set the table for another bad start, which could ultimately deflate the team early. The defense was the worst in the NFL last season and playing in the offensively-potent NFC North is not going to help matters.

Season win total pick: Over 6

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:32 AM

NFC South NFL betting preview: Can a healthy Falcons squad challenge the Saints

The NFC South looks like the New Orleans Saints' division to lose and oddsmakers agree. But if the Atlanta Falcons can put a dreadful 2013 behind them - and stay healthy - then it could become a very interesting race for the division crown.

New Orleans Saints (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win division: -125
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Saints: As long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are working together, the Saints are a formidable team. New Orleans always possesses a strong offense, but their biggest improvement last season came on defense. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brought a level of toughness to the Saints, and the players responded well to his coaching. The Saints gave up just 18 points per game and if they can duplicate that success, they should have another winning season.

Why not bet the Saints: New Orleans played in just five regular season games versus playoff teams last year. The Saints went just 2-3 SU in those five games with one of the wins coming by three points. New Orleans went just 3-5 SU on the road for the second consecutive season, so they are vulnerable when playing outside of the dome. The Saints play a tough schedule this season, and three of their first four games will be on the road.

Season win total pick: Over 10

Atlanta Falcons (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Falcons: Atlanta went a miserable 4-12 SU after a year full of injuries in 2013. The Falcons lost seven games by seven points or less which shows they weren’t as bad as their record indicates. Head coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan form a solid combination and the Falcons will have a strong offense if they all stay healthy. Atlanta will be a better team in 2014.

Why not bet the Falcons: Atlanta is in desperate need of stabilizing their offensive and defensive lines. Both units stunk last season. The Falcons fired both position coaches, so the team must hope the new voices get things back in order. Atlanta went 0-7 SU in true road games last season, and with tough out of division opponents like the Bengals, Giants, Ravens and Packers all coming away from home, the Falcons are facing a daunting schedule in 2014. Stephen Jackson enters the season banged up as well.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Carolina Panthers (2013: 12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +410
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Panthers: Carolina flew well under the radar for the majority of last season. The Panthers ripped off eight consecutive wins from mid-October through early December and they won 12 of 14 games over a longer stretch. Carolina won games with their stout defense as they only allowed 15 points and 301 yards of offense per game. Many will view that as a fluky season, but the Panthers have some good young talent that may be able to sustain their success.

Why not bet the Panthers: Question marks are aplenty in Carolina coming into 2014. The Panthers’ offense was poor in 2013, and now their offensive line is a mess and QB Cam Newton had off-season surgery. He is now also nursing a rib injury. Their defense lost some key personnel, and off-field troubles have come to light. Carolina can go either way, so they are a difficult team to project without seeing what they look like on the field. But we’ll lean to a regression year for the Panthers.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +650
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Buccaneers: It was a tale of two seasons for Tampa Bay in 2013. The Buccaneers started out 0-8 SU last season, but the team did not quit and they went 4-4 over their final eight games. The new head coach is Lovie Smith, and he has the respect of his players unlike Greg Schiano last season. Tampa Bay’s defense has a lot of young talent, and they have the potential to be really good this year, especially with Smith’s clever defensive schemes.

Why not bet the Buccaneers: The quarterback situation in Tampa Bay was a mess last year, but the recent signing of Josh McCown was a big positive. However, McCown needs to prove that he can be productive over a 16-game schedule. Smith’s reputation comes on defense, but his offensive views are on the conservative side which is the last thing Tampa Bay needs. The Buccaneers play a tough schedule and that may limit how successful they’ll be in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 7

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:32 AM

NFC East NFL betting preview: Eagles favorites in overrated division

Most folks will tell you that the NFC East has been one of the most overrated, not to mention overhyped, divisions in football for years. While that may be the case, it does promise to be ultra-competitive in 2014.

Philadelphia Eagles (2013: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Division odds: +140
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Eagles: Chip Kelly’s offense operated at warp speed a year ago, and it should be even faster in 2014. At least that’s the plan. DeSean Jackson is gone but the Eagles still boast considerable depth at wide receiver, with Jeremy Maclin back and Riley Cooper poised to build on a career year. The addition of Darren Sproles gives Philadelphia even more versatility while LeSean McCoy might just be the biggest gamebreaker in the league.

Why not bet the Eagles: The Eagles essentially stood pat when it comes to offseason moves on the defensive side of the football. They believe they can take a big step forward, but a look at their personnel indicates otherwise. There’s also a lot more pressure on QB Nick Foles following his breakout 2013 campaign. He certainly won’t catch opposing defenses by surprise.

Season win total pick: Under 9

Washington Redskins (2013: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS)

Division odds: +350
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Redskins: New head coach Jay Gruden should inject some life into the Redskins, who suffered a massive letdown due to injuries last season. A healthy Robert Griffin III obviously makes all the difference in the world, as does the addition of DeSean Jackson to the receiving corps. Don’t forget Pierre Garcon quietly led the league in catches a year ago.

Why not bet the Redskins: The defense. It was bad last season and could be even worse in 2014. The biggest problem lies in the secondary, where the Skins are likely to get torched on a weekly basis. A lot of pressure will be placed on the front seven to pick up the slack, especially in a pass-happy NFC East division. Will this group be completely worn down by the midway point of the season?

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Dallas Cowboys (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Division odds: +350
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Cowboys: The window of opportunity is closing for a number of Cowboys stalwarts and that should be more than enough motivation to draw their best effort in 2014. Dallas more than held its own with an awful defense a year ago. So if it can improve even marginally in that department, it should be able to control its own destiny this season.

Why not bet the Cowboys: Tony Romo is recovering from offseason back surgery but that’s the least of the Cowboys concerns in the injury department. They lost the star of their defense, Sean Lee, to a season-ending injury. That’s not to mention the departures of DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher on that side of the football.

Season win total pick: Over 8

New York Giants (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Division odds: +250
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Giants: Changes needed to be made following a disappointing 7-9 campaign and owner John Mara didn’t disappoint, adding no fewer than 20 new players and opening up the wallet to the tune of $100 million. The offense should improve thanks to a new West Coast scheme, while the defense has been shored up, particularly in the secondary. Playing in the NFC East, that point is magnified.

Why not bet the Giants: You never really know whether sweeping changes will pay off, especially in the short term. How will Eli Manning adapt to the new offensive philosophy? Can the offensive line hold up its end of the bargain following a miserable 2013 season? To be honest, there are more questions than answers at this point. That’s not to mention the fact that the Giants schedule is unforgiving, especially early on.

Season win total pick: Under 8

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:33 AM

NFC West NFL betting preview: Niners primed for a fall in tough division

When the Seahawks defeated the 49ers in last year's NFC Championship Game, Richard Sherman called it "the real Super Bowl". Seattle and San Francisco remain favorites to win the NFL West, but don't forget about Arizona. The Cardinals won 10 games in 2013 behind a strong defense loaded with youth and talent.

Seattle Seahawks (2013: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: -105
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the Seahawks: Quarterback Russell Wilson will be in just his third season as a starter. He's shown plenty of poise in his first two years and there’s every reason to assume he'll only get better. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy or rookie Paul Richardson makes an impact, we could see the Seahawks offense make strides in 2014. No team enjoys as much of a home-field advantage as the Seahawks with their 12th man at CenturyLink Field, where they are 15-1 the last two seasons.

Why not to bet the Seahawks: There really aren't many reasons to doubt the Seahawks, but they will come into the 2014 season with a target on their back. Everyone wants to beat the champions and the last two Super Bowl winners have gone on to miss the playoffs in the following season (New York and Baltimore).

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

San Francisco 49ers (2013: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +130
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the 49ers: San Francisco was so close to winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago and came up just short in the NFC Championship Game, losing to the eventual Super Bowl winners in Seattle last season. The Niners have a talented young quarterback who many consider to have the biggest arm in the NFL. With Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, Colin Kaepernick has no shortage of dangerous targets.

Why not to bet the 49ers: Injuries have taken their toll on San Francisco, which lost Kendall Hunter to a torn ACL, and LaMichael James to a dislocated elbow in training camp. That leaves the backfield in a fragile state, with an aging Frank Gore backed up by an injury-prone Marcus Lattimore and unproven rookie in Carlos Hyde. They also lost Glen Dorsey (out for the season) and Navarro Bowman, who is expected to miss at least the first half of 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5

Arizona Cardinals (2013: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Cardinals: On the defensive side of the ball, the secondary will continue to be very good provided Tyronn Mathieu is healthy and top draft choice Deone Bucannon lives up to advanced billing. The Cardinals finished with the No. 1 run defense in 2013 and they’re the only team to have beaten the Seahawks in Seattle in the past two seasons.

Why not to bet the Cardinals: There’s concern in the linebacking corps as Karlos Dansby bolted to Cleveland and Daryl Washington has been suspended for the season. Along with safety Yeremiah Bell, who wasn't resigned, the team's top three tacklers from last season (270 in total) are all gone. It could be a rough year for Carson Palmer, as Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis all have ferocious pass rushes that will make life miserable for the immobile veteran quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

St. Louis Rams (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1,000
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Rams: Sam Bradford only played seven games last year, yet the Rams still managed to win seven games while playing in the toughest division in the league. His numbers look pretty impressive, with 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This could be the year that the Rams quarterback finally reaches his potential.

Why not to bet the Rams: While they look solid on defense and the running game should be strong with Zac Stacy coming off an impressive rookie campaign, there are still plenty of questions regarding this offense. The Rams averaged fewer than 200 yards passing per game and they don't exactly have a star-studded corps of receivers.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:33 AM

AFC North NFL betting preview: Football's most wide-open division

No division in the NFL is more wide open than the AFC North. Even the Cleveland Browns have high hopes with an injection of young talent and a new head coach this season. According to oddsmakers though, it’s a three-team race between Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati in 2014.

Cincinnati Bengals (2013: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +172
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Bengals: The Bengals won the AFC North last season and they should not drop back much this season. The offense has improved its scoring each of the last four years and the core returns. Defensively, Cincinnati added Terrance Newman and Reggie Nelson, it drafted stud Darqueze Dennard and hopes to have Geno Atkins back for a full season. Quarterback Andy Dalton has improved his passer rating in each of his three years.

Why not bet the Bengals: The quarterback rating for Dalton is still not great as his 88.8 rating was 15th among qualified leaders last year. He has a lot of weapons, although the loss of receiver Marvin Jones for the few three games at least will hurt. The division as whole should be tougher after Baltimore and Pittsburgh took a step back last season. The schedule is a challenge with trips to New England, Indianapolis and New Orleans and visits from Atlanta and Denver.

Season win total pick: Under 9

Pittsburgh Steelers (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: +193
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Steelers: Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs each of the last two years following 8-8 seasons, so there will be plenty of motivation to turn things around. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed 28 touchdowns, his most since 2007, but he also threw 14 interceptions. He should have better protection and the additions of Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey should help improve his numbers this year. The toughest road games outside of the division are at Carolina and Atlanta.

Why not to bet the Steelers: The defense isn’t getting any younger and after finishing first in total defense in 2012, they dropped to 13th last season. Pittsburgh needs the stop unit to get back to the powerhouse it once was but that is no guarantee. Roethlisberger is not getting any younger either and he’s prone to injury even though he played in every game last season for the first time since 2008.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Baltimore Ravens (2013: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +250
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Ravens: Baltimore also went 8-8 last season - its fewest wins in the John Harbaugh era since 2008. The Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2012, so last year can be chalked up as an anomaly with quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice having very off years. The defense did its part and four losses came by six points or less, however the offense scored 20 or fewer points each time. Baltimore has a great home-field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Harbaugh.

Why not to bet the Ravens: Flacco had his worse passer rating in his six-year career as he tossed a career-high 22 picks last season. While a rebound should be expected, the only addition to his receiving corps was Steve Smith, who is arguably past his prime. Like the Steelers, the defense is old and an improvement seems unlikely. The Ravens went 2-6 on the highway last year and the road slate this year is even tougher.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Cleveland Browns (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +648
Season win total: 6.5

Why to bet the Browns: There’s a renewed energy in Cleveland with the hiring of Mike Pettine as head coach after Rob Chudzinski was fired after just one season. Drafting Johnny Manziel was a risk that could pay off right away. The Browns defense has taken a step back in points allowed the last two years but it is still an above average unit and should improve this year. While the schedule isn't a cakewalk, it’s the easiest in the AFC North.

Why not to bet the Browns: After losing at least 10 games in 10 of the last 11 years, how can the Browns improve right away in a tough division? If Manziel is the real deal, Cleveland could pull off some upsets but there’s no certainly of how he will perform. Winning division matchups are the biggest factor as the Browns have won a total of seven games in the AFC North over the last six years, winning no more than two in any season.

Season win total pick: Over 6

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:34 AM

AFC South NFL betting preview: Texans are elephant in the room

The Indianapolis Colts are overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South crown this season, however the elephant in the room is the Houston Texans. After a dreadful 2013, can Houston get back into playoff contention and give the Colts some competition in the league’s weakest division?

Indianapolis Colts (2013: 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: -150
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Colts: It was another good year for the Colts in 2013 as they went 11-5 SU and won a playoff game. Indianapolis is lucky to be playing in such a weak division and they’ve taken full advantage of that. The Colts beat the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos last year, so they can also beat good teams. Andrew Luck will be a good NFL quarterback for years to come, so Indianapolis deserves to be favored in this division.

Why not bet the Colts: Indianapolis had back-to-back fortunate years and regression has to set in soon. Seven of their wins came by single digits last season. The Colts defense was good against the bad teams, but awful against the good teams, so they need to make improvements if they want to go forward. Despite their 23 wins over the last two seasons, the Colts will likely regress in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Houston Texans (2013: 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +240
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Texans: Houston made a terrific head coach hire in Bill O’Brien. He immediately added to his coaching staff with former colleagues that coached together in New England. The Texans have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and with a veteran roster, 2014 will be a much better season than 2013. There’s nowhere to go but up and the Texans will be much better than people think.

Why not bet the Texans: They went just 2-14 SU in 2013 with an embarrassing minus-152 point differential. The Texans still need to get production out of their starting quarterback, but O’Brien has been successful with lesser names because of his schemes. However, quarterback play is still a major question mark for Houston heading into this season. The Texans play five of their first eight games on the road, so they’ll be challenged right from the get-go.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Tennessee Titans (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-7-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Titans: The Titans come off a 7-9 SU season, but seven of their losses came by single digits. Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator in Ray Horton. He will implement a 3-4 defensive scheme and even though the Titans don’t have the right personnel for that just yet, sometimes a change is philosophy makes a unit better. There’s hope in Tennessee, but the Titans will likely be a .500 team at best this year.

Why not bet the Titans: There’s a transition going on with the Titans. They have a new coaching staff with head coach Ken Whisenhunt and they don’t have RB Chris Johnson anymore (Jets). Whisenhunt has done good things with offenses, but he always had a veteran quarterback to work with (Rivers in San Diego last year). Jake Locker played hurt last season, but he was serviceable. Overall, the Titans will be a middle of the road team in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Jacksonville Jaguars (2013: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,800
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Jaguars: If Jacksonville carries over any momentum from late last season, they could be competitive in 2014. The Jaguars went 4-4 over their last eight games with their four losses only coming by 11 points per game. Jacksonville still has a young roster but the majority of the coaching staff will be returning for their second year. Reports out of Florida have been extremely high on head coach Gus Bradley and his impact on the team. The youngsters have taken to his coaching style.

Why not bet the Jaguars: Despite the good finish, Jacksonville was horrendous early in 2013. The Jaguars were 0-8 SU over their first eight games while losing by 22.3 points per game. Jacksonville took QB Blake Bortles with the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, but insiders say Chad Henne will start under center. The quarterback situation is a major concern for Jacksonville once again and the position will likely hamper the Jaguars in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:35 AM

AFC East NFL betting preview: New England's division to lose

The AFC East is likely the Patriots to lose again this year, but they could get a serious push from at least two of their three division rivals.

New England Patriots (2013: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win division: 1-3
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Patriots: Injuries played a major role in the offense’s hiccups a year ago, but all indications are that Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson will be at full speed to open the new campaign. The defense should be better with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, adding to an already underrated core. And of course the Pats are still led by a guy by the name of Tom Brady.

Why not bet the Patriots: Is Brady’s production on the decline or was last year an aberration? The running game seemingly loses key pieces on a yearly basis, with LeGarrette Blount the most recent defector. Who can plug the hole and relieve some of the pressure on Brady? The offensive line has its share of questions that will need to be addressed before the start of the season.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5

Buffalo Bills (2013: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win division: 8-1
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Bills: Change is once again in order in Buffalo, and that’s not a bad thing. Sammy Watkins should add some electricity to the offense, which head coach Doug Marrone wants to move at an even faster pace this season. The defense has a new coordinator in Jim Schwarz, and he brings a new scheme to a unit that is loaded with talent but hasn’t been able to reach its potential.

Why not bet the Bills: Is E.J. Manuel the right quarterback to lead the offense? He showed flashes of brilliance during his rookie season, but when he went down to injury, Thaddeus Lewis didn’t represent a major drop-off. The running game needs to be more consistent, but C.J. Spiller has yet to prove that he can take a pounding for 16 games. The margin for error is slim and we’ll see if the Bills respond favorably to the pressure.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

Miami Dolphins (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: 5-1
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Dolphins: Despite having key pieces in place, the Dolphins offense stunk a year ago, but should be vastly improved under the guidance of new coordinator Bill Lazor in 2014. The Fins defense helped pick up the slack and could be even better this year. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC East. If the offensive line shows even moderate improvement, the Fins will take a leap forward.

Why not bet the Dolphins: Fixing the offensive line will be easier said than done. That unit will likely remain a work in progress when the games start to count. Ryan Tannehill has a lot of upside but he’s by no means an elite quarterback at this stage of his career. Unless the ground game can take off, Tannehill will continue to be placed in tough situations on a regular basis.

Season win total pick: Over

New York Jets (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: 8-1
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Jets: A little quarterback competition never hurt anyone, and the Jets offense should benefit from the battle between Geno Smith and Michael Vick. New York had an offense-heavy draft, picking guys that can step in and perform right away. The addition of Eric Decker gives it a legitimate red zone target while Chris Johnson joins the backfield. The defense should be formidable up front.

Why not bet the Jets: The secondary has a number of holes and will get picked on regularly out of the gate. Is the presence of Decker enough to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pass defenses? It’s hard to believe that Rex Ryan is still at the helm given the turmoil this team has gone through, and you have to wonder whether the clock is still ticking on his tenure in New York. In a tough division, the Jets may not have quite enough in the tool box to keep pace.

Season win total pick: Under 7

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:36 AM

AFC West NFL betting preview: Broncos the overwhelming fave

The Denver Broncos won 13 games in 2013, and they will be the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC West again this season. The Chiefs and Chargers both went to the playoffs last year, and both teams are expected to challenge for the postseason in 2014. Oakland is clearly the underdog in this division, and bookmakers aren’t expecting much from the Raiders again this year.

Denver Broncos (2013: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: -400
Season win total: 11.5

Why bet the Broncos: Peyton Manning is coming off a career year, throwing for over 5,000 yards and 55 touchdowns. Denver has added veterans DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib to shore up a defense that was a bit of a sore spot last season. It’s important not to overreact to results in the preseason, but everything we’ve seen so far looks encouraging for the Broncos.

Why not bet the Broncos: At the age of 38, just two years after a potential career ending neck injury, Peyton Manning may be just one hit away from retirement. An injury to Manning would likely be devastating for the Broncos, who don’t have an experienced backup. Manning isn’t the only veteran that could be considered an injury risk, Von Miller, Wes Welker and DeMarcus Ware are both coming off injuries, Ware is 32 years old, Welker is dealing with another concussion and Miller has yet to play this preseason.

Season win total pick: Under 11.5

Kansas City Chiefs (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win division: +800
Season win total: 8.0

Why bet the Chiefs: The offense will depend heavily on the run, but that should be a good thing with Jamaal Charles carrying the load. Charles is a dual threat, with a dozen rushing TDs and seven TD receptions last season. He ran for 1,287 yards and added 70 catches for 693 yards in the air. Alex Smith was just one of 10 Chiefs to go to the Pro Bowl and he’s one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.

Why not bet the Chiefs: Kansas City took advantage of a weak schedule, winning nine straight to start the season in 2013. The schedule makers haven’t been so kind to the Chiefs this year as they play Denver, New England and San Francisco before the bye week. Dwayne Bowe had a disappointing 2013 season, and Kansas City didn’t do anything in the off-season to address their weakness at wide receiver.

Season win total pick: Over 8.0

San Diego Chargers (2013: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +450
Season win total: 8.0

Why bet the Chargers: The Chargers finished the 2013 season as one of the NFL’s hottest teams, winning five of their final six games. Phillip Rivers had a career year, and Ryan Mathews stayed healthy and was very effective alongside playmaker Danny Woodhead. The defense should get a boost from free agent cornerback Brandon Flowers, and rookie corner Jason Verrett.

Why not bet the Chargers: The loss of offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt could hurt Phillip Rivers' chances of repeating his breakout performance last season. Starting runningback Ryan Mathews stayed healthy last year for the first time in his four year career, but there is no guarantee he will stay healthy again this season. A brutal schedule isn’t going to help their chances, as they face Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Arizona before the bye week.

Season win total pick: Under 8.0

Oakland Raiders (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2500
Season win total: 5.0

Why bet the Raiders: It’s certainly not easy to find positives for the Raiders, but perhaps because expectations are so low, it might be possible they will be better than expected. They were certainly busy in the off-season bringing in Matt Schuab and Maurice Jones-Drew on offense, and their defense should be better with Justin Tuck, Carlos Rogers, Lamarr Woodley and first round draft pick Khalil Mack.

Why not bet the Raiders: Matt Schuab is coming off a terrible year with Houston, throwing for just 10 TDs and 14 INTs. He hasn’t impressed in the preseason for the Raiders and rookie quarterback Derek Carr is breathing down his neck for the starters role. Darren McFadden can’t seem to stay healthy, and Maurice Jones-Drew has his better days behind him.

Season win total pick: Over 5.0

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:36 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Green Bay at Seattle
The Packers open the season against the defending champion Seahawks on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Green Bay is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

Game 461-462: Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.926; Seattle 137.164
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 45
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6); Under

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

Game 463-464: New Orleans at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.138; Atlanta 130.846
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 130.652; St. Louis 132.054
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6); Over

Game 467-468: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.022; Pittsburgh 138.425
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6); Over

Game 469-470: Jacksonville at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.816; Philadelphia 133.483
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 11; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11); Over

Game 471-472: Oakland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.602; NY Jets 135.250
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 14 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-5); Over

Game 473-474: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.095; Baltimore 131.442
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Under

Game 475-476: Buffalo at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.013; Chicago 133.118
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 9; 52
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6 1/2); Over

Game 477-478: Washington at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 119.942; Houston 125.013
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 479-480: Tennessee at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.971; Kansas City 132.518
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Under

Game 481-482: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.356; Miami 129.666
Dunkel Line: New England by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Over

Game 483-484: Carolina at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.830; Tampa Bay 134.051
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1); Under

Game 485-486: San Francisco at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 141.550; Dallas 130.068
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under

Game 487-488: Indianapolis at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.352; Denver 140.289
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 489-490: NY Giants at Detroit (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 123.754; Detroit 139.788
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 16; 42
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Under

Game 491-492: San Diego at Arizona (10:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.461; Arizona 140.268
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:36 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

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GREEN BAY (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (16 - 3) - 9/4/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 7

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NEW ORLEANS (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (5 - 10 - 1) at ST LOUIS (7 - 9) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-134 ATS (-49.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (4 - 12) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 12) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (4 - 12) at NY JETS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (11 - 6) at BALTIMORE (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (6 - 10) at CHICAGO (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 13) at HOUSTON (2 - 14) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (7 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 6) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at MIAMI (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-121 ATS (+26.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (12 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 5) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 6) at DENVER (15 - 4) - 9/7/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 8

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NY GIANTS (7 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 9) - 9/8/2014, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (10 - 8) at ARIZONA (10 - 6) - 9/8/2014, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:37 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Pack is 2-3 in last five games here, losing last visit in ’12 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy until LY, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub QB’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 vs. non-division foes.

Saints @ Falcons-- Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits here, with last four wins by 4 or less points. NO covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten AFC South road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- its been four years since they won a divisional road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 vs. spread in NFC South home games under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.

Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes vs. veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at DC this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota HC; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two games with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers LY, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.

Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Browns like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Cleveland lost last nine visits here, last six by 11+ points- they scored two TD’s on 24 drives in two games vs. Pitt LY, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started LY; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 SU in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three years, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.

Jaguars @ Eagles-- Philly is just 9-23 vs spread at home the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jags won 13-6 here in ‘06, their only visit to Linc. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jags lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jax is 5-15 vs. spread in last 20 games vs. NFC teams; Iggles are 7-13 in their last 20 vs AFC squads. Over last five years, Week 1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.

Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for TD, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland LY, Raiders 4th loss in row here, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series games. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. Gang Green won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 vs. spread in last 21 home openers, but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.

Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive TD’s on 29 drives vs Bengals LY, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings LY, but now Cincy has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as OC for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series games; Bengals lost last four visits here, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine wins by 7+ points. Cincy started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.

Bills @ Bears-- Buffalo signed Bears' old backup QB Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years; they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in ‘06. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in ‘10. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 vs. spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since ‘07, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites, 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games vs. AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 vs. spread vs. NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.

Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 LY, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current QB Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 vs. spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since ‘09, Texans are 5-12-3 vs. spread when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites LY, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant in ‘06; Texans won in OT in last series meeting, in ‘10. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.

Titans @ Chiefs-- Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 vs. spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers LY, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since ‘07, KC is 5-19-1 vs. spread as home fave; Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 vs. spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2 in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee LY, scoring TD on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.

Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Pats played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series games, upsetting Pats 24-20 (+1) in Week 15 LY; NE won five of last seven visits here, with four of five wins by 14+ points. Patriots won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 vs. spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 vs spread in division games the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Fish’ last five home openers went over total.

Panthers @ Buccaneers-- Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at HC for Bucs, who had only one TD on 20 drives vs. Carolina LY, with three TO’s, eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Bucs 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits here. Bucs covered three of last four games as home dog in HO’s; they’re 5-4 SU in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.

49ers @ Cowboys-- 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since ‘88, they’re 5-3 SU when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such game was in ‘02. Since ‘06, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series games by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since ‘11, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 vs spread on carpet under Harbaugh.

Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 LY before losing 39-33 at Indy in Week 7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four TD’s was on drive longer than 50 yards. Indy lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 vs. spread in Week 1 games. Manning is 9-5 vs spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 SU in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.

Giants @ Lions--Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games LY, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week 16 debacle to Giants; Big Blue’s two TD’s were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Big Blue won last three series games by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Lions have new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine HO’s, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.

Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits here, but haven’t been in desert since ’02, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four vs. NFC LY, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Bolts won four of last five Week 1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 vs. spread in Week 1 last eight years. Why did these teams meet in preseason LAST WEEK?

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 10:37 AM

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 4

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Seattle is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

Sunday, September 7

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. HOUSTON
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Houston is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. KANSAS CITY
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Jacksonville is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CHICAGO
Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
St. Louis is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of St. Louis's last 13 games at home

4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DALLAS
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 12 games at home

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Denver
Denver is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Monday, September 8

7:10 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DETROIT
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Giants

10:20 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

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**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 02:07 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

Green Bay at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 2-7 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

**Udog** · 09-01-2014, 02:10 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Books staying high on Seahawks

With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the NFL is just getting started.

While Week 1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week 1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight.

The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.

“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells Covers. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The defending AFC champion Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year.

The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday night contest.

“While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says. “The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week 1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Niners are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges.

But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April.

“San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart says. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week 1 lines back in April.

“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Pats were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl.

With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at Pats -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game.

“We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 4 - Monday, September 8)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 4 - Monday, September 8)

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